Upload
olivia-tate
View
213
Download
0
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
WTO and International Trade Agreements:
Under Pressure in Light of theGlobal Economic Downturn
WTO and International Trade Agreements:
Under Pressure in Light of theGlobal Economic Downturn
University of Chicago Law School, CLE Lunch & Learn
June 30, 2009
Mark Nguyen, PrincipalMDN Trade LLC
University of Chicago Law School, CLE Lunch & Learn
June 30, 2009
Mark Nguyen, PrincipalMDN Trade LLC
Global Protectionism on the Rise…
Global Protectionism on the Rise…
U.S. procurement barriers in the stimulus bill (2009 Economic Recovery Act); “10+2” customs and security requirements; House climate change bill
Chinese export restraints; security and testing requirements (e.g., CCC, Info Security, WAPI)
European standards/technical barriers on chemicals (Reach); materials content (RoHS); subsidies
Latin American import tariffs; licensing measures; VAT taxes
Overall rise in subsidies, antidumping (27%+ in 2008) and border measures
U.S. procurement barriers in the stimulus bill (2009 Economic Recovery Act); “10+2” customs and security requirements; House climate change bill
Chinese export restraints; security and testing requirements (e.g., CCC, Info Security, WAPI)
European standards/technical barriers on chemicals (Reach); materials content (RoHS); subsidies
Latin American import tariffs; licensing measures; VAT taxes
Overall rise in subsidies, antidumping (27%+ in 2008) and border measures
World Bank & WTO Studies on Protectionism
World Bank & WTO Studies on Protectionism
World Bank & WTO studies in March 2009 cite rise of protectionism, nearly 80 measures since 2008
Despite G-20 pledge in November 2008, 17 out of 20 have imposed 47 measures
Examples: U.S. and foreign auto subsidies; EU export subsidies; Russian auto tariffs; Ecuador tariffs on 600 goods; Indonesian limitations on 5 categories
Bank forecasts a 3-4% decline in global output; WTO a 9% decline in global trade in 2009
… a return to the 1930s?
World Bank & WTO studies in March 2009 cite rise of protectionism, nearly 80 measures since 2008
Despite G-20 pledge in November 2008, 17 out of 20 have imposed 47 measures
Examples: U.S. and foreign auto subsidies; EU export subsidies; Russian auto tariffs; Ecuador tariffs on 600 goods; Indonesian limitations on 5 categories
Bank forecasts a 3-4% decline in global output; WTO a 9% decline in global trade in 2009
… a return to the 1930s?
Barriers & RemediesBarriers & RemediesCountries Barriers Remedies
U.S., EU, Canada
Automotive bailouts and subsidies WTO SCM
U.S. Procurement; differential of 25% WTO GPA
Argentina Increase in VAT taxes on hi-tech goods
None
Ecuador Raised tariffs on 600 goods categories
WTO schedule
India Special additional duty (4%); anti-dumping measures; import bans
WTO AD; schedule
China Ban of certain raw material exports; technical standards; export subsidies
WTO SCM, TBT, Protocol
Malaysia Restrictions on foreign labor WTO GATS
Indonesia Restrictions of five goods categories WTO NT
Russia Raised tariffs on autos None
WTO/FTAs: Legal ObligationsWTO/FTAs: Legal Obligations
not necessarily,WTO/FTAs dispute settlement
mechanisms critical to enforcing obligations
WTO/FTAs as negotiating forums for reducing barriers and create disciplines
WTO/FTAs multilateral and bilateral committees/reviews monitor barriers
But still a global dilemma…
not necessarily,WTO/FTAs dispute settlement
mechanisms critical to enforcing obligations
WTO/FTAs as negotiating forums for reducing barriers and create disciplines
WTO/FTAs multilateral and bilateral committees/reviews monitor barriers
But still a global dilemma…
WTO/FTAs: Dispute SettlementWTO/FTAs: Dispute Settlement
WTO/FTAs dispute settlement mechanisms discourage barriers, and can be used to challenge inconsistent measures
Even the smallest countries have prevailed (e.g., US-Antigua/Barbuda online gaming)
Lengthy process; minimum of two years and compliance is recommended, not mandatory
WTO/FTAs dispute settlement mechanisms discourage barriers, and can be used to challenge inconsistent measures
Even the smallest countries have prevailed (e.g., US-Antigua/Barbuda online gaming)
Lengthy process; minimum of two years and compliance is recommended, not mandatory
WTO/FTAs: Negotiating ForumWTO/FTAs: Negotiating Forum
WTO/FTAs have been an active forum for negotiations on liberalization and disciplines
WTO Doha Round launched in 2001; stalled since breakdown of talks in August 2008
FTA activity slowing in U.S.; Panama & Korea (2007) and Colombia (2006) stalled indefinitely in Congress
U.S. to host APEC in 2011; Bogor 2010/2020 goals unlikely; FTAAP a bold new initiative?
WTO/FTAs have been an active forum for negotiations on liberalization and disciplines
WTO Doha Round launched in 2001; stalled since breakdown of talks in August 2008
FTA activity slowing in U.S.; Panama & Korea (2007) and Colombia (2006) stalled indefinitely in Congress
U.S. to host APEC in 2011; Bogor 2010/2020 goals unlikely; FTAAP a bold new initiative?
WTO/FTAs: Monitoring Mechanisms
WTO/FTAs: Monitoring Mechanisms
WTO has numerous committees that meet regularly to review compliance (e.g., CTG, TBT, SPS, CTS, RTA, ITA)
WTO Trade Policy Review: comprehensive review every 2-5 years
FTAs have annual and periodic bilateral meetings to review compliance
Review bodies have little power except for increased transparency and pressure
WTO has numerous committees that meet regularly to review compliance (e.g., CTG, TBT, SPS, CTS, RTA, ITA)
WTO Trade Policy Review: comprehensive review every 2-5 years
FTAs have annual and periodic bilateral meetings to review compliance
Review bodies have little power except for increased transparency and pressure
US-China Trade FrictionsUS-China Trade Frictions
New WTO dispute launched: China-US/EC on raw materials/chemicals export restrictions
Existing dispute on China export subsidies; copyright/IPR protection; poultry
China “green dam” Internet filtering requirement July 1 (postponed), information security and WAPI telecoms standards
China currency legislation pending in Congress
New WTO dispute launched: China-US/EC on raw materials/chemicals export restrictions
Existing dispute on China export subsidies; copyright/IPR protection; poultry
China “green dam” Internet filtering requirement July 1 (postponed), information security and WAPI telecoms standards
China currency legislation pending in Congress
US-China DialogueUS-China Dialogue
Joint Commission on Commerce and Trade (JCCT) and Strategic Economic Dialogue (SED) continuing in the Obama Administration by Secretaries Geithner and Locke, USTR Kirk
China bowed to pressure on information security deadline (May 1) and green dam software (July 1); but barriers remain on IT and other products
Joint Commission on Commerce and Trade (JCCT) and Strategic Economic Dialogue (SED) continuing in the Obama Administration by Secretaries Geithner and Locke, USTR Kirk
China bowed to pressure on information security deadline (May 1) and green dam software (July 1); but barriers remain on IT and other products
U.S. Congress and Domestic BarriersU.S. Congress and Domestic Barriers
Many members of Congress reluctant to support free trade; some hostile
U.S. “Buy America” legislation on procurement has discriminatory effect toward non-GPA members like India, China, Brazil
House bill on climate change (June 26) includes restrictions on carbon-intensive imports
Obama Administration more pragmatic towards NAFTA, China, FTAs than expected
U.S. states imposing barriers and reluctant to support liberalization
Many members of Congress reluctant to support free trade; some hostile
U.S. “Buy America” legislation on procurement has discriminatory effect toward non-GPA members like India, China, Brazil
House bill on climate change (June 26) includes restrictions on carbon-intensive imports
Obama Administration more pragmatic towards NAFTA, China, FTAs than expected
U.S. states imposing barriers and reluctant to support liberalization
Prospects for Recovery. . . a New Trading Order?
Prospects for Recovery. . . a New Trading Order?
G-20 leadership and dialogue beyond G-8 countries
Obama administration pragmatic; launch of new trade initiatives?
Trade and climate change/environmental initiatives
Global recovery linked to trade liberalization, facilitation and growth after 2008-2009 downturn
Restart of Doha Round in 2009? Regional and bilateral initiatives?
G-20 leadership and dialogue beyond G-8 countries
Obama administration pragmatic; launch of new trade initiatives?
Trade and climate change/environmental initiatives
Global recovery linked to trade liberalization, facilitation and growth after 2008-2009 downturn
Restart of Doha Round in 2009? Regional and bilateral initiatives?
Thank You! Contact InfoThank You! Contact Info
Mark NguyenPrincipal, Global Regulatory Affairs
MDN Trade LLC424 S. Broadway #703Los Angeles, CA [email protected]: (310) 487-1457Fax: (213) 341-2417
Mark NguyenPrincipal, Global Regulatory Affairs
MDN Trade LLC424 S. Broadway #703Los Angeles, CA [email protected]: (310) 487-1457Fax: (213) 341-2417