WP1 report F1 20110523 - All Partners Access Network Documents/Telecom... · 2013-11-07 · This Tribal report is not intended for distribution as is, it is provided for information

This work relates to a Department of the Navy Grant N62909-11-1-1032 issued by the Office of Naval Research Global (ONRG) and funded by the U.S. Army Medical Research and Material Command, Telemedicine and Advanced Technology Research Center (TATRC) entitled Medical Mobile Development Project.

Authors

Asi DeGaniJo ColleyLouise PopeTim JamesCady ZhangGeoff Stead

Address for correspondence

Tribal Lincoln House, The Paddocks347 Cherry Hinton Road CambridgeCB1 8DHUnited [email protected]

Medical Mobile Development Project: D1

Telecom research

November 2010

Web addresses

www.mole-project.netwww.triballabs.netwww.m-learning.org

License

This Tribal report is not intended for distribution as is, it is provided for information purposes only. This report is a substantial collation and summary of key facts and statistics from the worldwide mobile industry, which will be used as the base for several future reports, each of which will focus on specific sub-themes.

Medical Mobile Development Project

Grant Number: N62909-10-1-7140

Contents Contents 1

1 About this report 3

1.1 Aim of this document 3

1.2 Document structure 3

1.3 Reporting categories 4

2 Summary of key findings 7

2.1 W3C: Mobile Web for Social Development Roadmap 7

2.2 Key findings from other data sources 13

3 Review of secondary literature: global trends 25

3.1 Mobile readiness: penetration 25

3.2 Mobile readiness: coverage 31

3.3 Mobile readiness: reliability and traffic 35

3.4 Mobile readiness: tariffs and payments 41

3.5 Mobile readiness: subscriptions 42

3.6 Mobile readiness: broadband subscriptions 47

3.7 Mobile readiness: types of mobile devices owned 50

3.8 Mobile readiness: internet-ready devices 53

3.9 Mobile readiness: device manufacturers 55

3.10 Mobile readiness: device operating systems 57

3.11 Mobile readiness: apps 58

3.12 Mobile use: perceived advantages and barriers to using mobiles 59

3.13 Mobile use: which functions are used? 64

3.14 Mobile use: messaging 71

3.15 Mobile use: internet access 72

3.16 Mobile use: social networks 74

3.17 Mobile use: financial services 79



3.18 Mobile capability: skills and confidence to use mobile devices 82

4 Five ‘country profiles’ 83

4.1 Mobile readiness: infrastructure 83

4.2 Mobile readiness: access 84

4.3 Mobile use 85

4.4 Mobile capability 87

4.5 Other country information 88

5 Key organizations and sources 90



1 About this report Aim of this document

This document aims to set out:

a suggested reporting structure

data and information drawn from our initial review of secondary literature and data

the key organizations and sources of information.

Given the wealth of information available, the data and information contained in this report represents merely the tip of the iceberg. The primary aim of this first draft is to present and agree a reporting structure. We will then continue to update the content of the report throughout the remainder of the project.

Document structure

This document contains the following sections:

1) About this report – an overview of the documents aim, structure and a suggested conceptual framework for all the research activities / work packages in this project.

2) A summary of key findings – a summary of the key findings split by global trends, developed country trends and developing country trends, with references/links on where to go in the main report for the full supporting evidence.

3) A review of secondary literature and trends: trends in the latest technology, infrastructure and mobile usage across developed countries, emerging economies, and developing countries.

a) Descriptive visuals and maps

b) Case studies about using mobiles in disaster situations (infrastructure, usage, barriers, impact)

c) Narrative sections exploring the key trends in the data.

4) Five “country profiles” – data on mobile infrastructure and usage in Chile, Haiti, Indonesia, Nepal and Thailand.

a) A summary table with headline data

b) A narrative section exploring the key trends in the data.

5) A list of key organizations and sources of information – recommended starting points to use when updating the report content.

PLEASE NOTE: Focusing on five specific countries, we have found it straightforward gathering data in some areas (i.e. subscriptions). However, there is no single data source to draw from for other categories (i.e. skills/confidence using mobiles; which mobile functions are



used). We undertook a review of secondary literature and trends partially to fill gap areas in the individual country profiles.

Reporting categories

We recommend using reporting categories aligned to frameworks used by other key organizations, both for ease of compiling content and for easy read-across and comparison to other initiatives/reports.

The W3C Mobile Web for Social Development Interest Group has produced a suggested framework to use to determine the social impact of a specific service / app / project / technology.1 W3C’s framework is, in turn, based on the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) conceptual framework of the ICT development process towards an information society.

The conceptual framework consists of four key stages:

Mobile readiness – infrastructure and access

Mobile use – intensity of use

Mobile capability – skills (a significant factor behind the intensity and effectiveness of use)

Mobile impact – outcomes of use.

Figure 1: conceptual framework2

We provide below a suggested conceptual framework, which spans all the research work packages being undertaken in this project.

The conceptual framework can be split down into the following categories and indicators, based on the W3C / ITU frameworks. We have shown, via checked boxes, the indicators that this first report covers; or in other words, the categories and indicators relevant for WP1.

1 http://www.w3.org/2008/MW4D/wiki/Mw4d_impact

2 http://www.w3.org/2008/MW4D/wiki/Mw4d_impact



Table 1: conceptual framework, categories and indicators

Categories Indicators

Mobile readiness (WP1 & WP3/review of apps)

Penetration

Coverage

Reliability and traffic

Infrastructure

(WP1)

Tariffs and payment methods

Mobile subscriptions

Mobile broadband subscriptions

Type of mobile device owned

Devices (internet-ready handsets)

Devices (manufacturers)

Devices (operating systems)

Free supporting browsers

Relevant mobile web apps

Relevant content

Local language support

Local character support

Illiteracy support

Access

(WP1 & WP3/appathon)

Service monetization

Mobile use (WP1 & WP2/survey)

Perceived advantages and barriers to using mobile

Which functions are used

Amount of time spent using mobile

Intensity

Amount of money spent using mobile

Mobile capability (WP1 & WP2/survey)

Literacy rate

Secondary / tertiary education enrolment

Skills

Skills / confidence to use mobile phones

Mobile impact (WP6)

Improved productivity

Improved cost-effectiveness

Indirect / intangible benefits

(WP6 & WP2/survey?)

Improved health outcomes

Improved protocols

Improved standards

Improved mobile infrastructure

Technology

Improved mobile handsets

Enabling factors (WP6)

Latest available technology

Latest available devices

Technology standards

Funding



Implementation policies

Collaboration / working with

partners

The world is a big and diverse place! Where possible, we have attempted to drill down data to specific scenarios and factors, such as:

data split by geographical factors (geographical region, country, urban vs. rural)

data split by economic factors (income of the country, income of the individual) data split by social factors (gender, age, culture, race, level of education).



Summary of key findings This section provides:

a summary of the key findings from the W3C Interest Group’s “Mobile Web for Social Development Roadmap”3

a table with all key findings from other data sources mapped against the conceptual framework categories and indices.

W3C: Mobile Web for Social Development Roadmap

W3C state that as “there is currently no global initiative involving all the stakeholder from the domain of mobile ICT for Development . . . investigating how to realize the full potential benefit of the mobile platform,” they have set up an interest group which is “striving to build consensus on the most promising technologies capable of achieving global impact and realizing the promise of ICT for Development.”

The W3C Interest Group have set out (1) to identify challenges that will impact on developers or users of mobile services and content; and (2) to investigate the potential of existing mobile technologies to meet these challenges.

Within the short term, the roadmap is targeted at providing practitioners within the field of international development with up-to-date reference information concerning the functionality and availability of mobile solutions, and how to integrate them within mainstream work processes. The document seeks to inform practitioners about the potential challenges during implementation. This information is provided to “facilitate the selection of appropriate technologies, techniques and workarounds by development practitioners, thereby lowering the barriers to mobile technology use and adoption.”

In the medium term the roadmap aims to inform global actors of the “challenges and barriers that limit the potential impact of mobile technology in development.”

The roadmap reviews three categories of mobile technology: (1) voice communication (person-to-person voice communication); (2) signalling channels (used by SMS); and (3) data channels (used to communicate with remote computers and to access the internet).

We provide overleaf two tables summarising the roadmap’s findings to date.

The full roadmap can be viewed here: http://www.w3.org/TR/mw4d-roadmap/

3 http://www.w3.org/TR/mw4d-roadmap/


- 8 -


Table 2: technology capabilities vis à vis user-related challenge

Costs (for the end-user to access the service)

People with Disabilities

People with low reading skills

People speaking lesser-known

languages

People without computer literacy

Predictability Amount

Infrastructure Handset

VoiceXML

[Accessible]

OK for people with visual impairment

[Accessible]

OK

[Accessible]

OK for pre-recorded audio file / issues with Text-to-speech and speech recognition engines

[Existing Applications can be aggregated]

No discoverability (1) mechanism/Works with portals

[Predictable cost]

Same as voice call

[Expensive]

Usually more expensive than SMS (3)

[No requirements]

Works on all telephony networks

[No Requirements]

Works on all phones, even not mobile

Voice Channel

Other voice applications

[Accessible]

OK for people with visual impairment

[Accessible]

Ok

[Accessible]

Ok for pre-recorded audio file / issues with Text-to-speech and speech recognition engines

[Aggregation hardly possible]

No discoverability mechanism (1)/Doesn't work with portals

[Predictable cost]

Same as voice call

[Expensive]

Usually more expensive than SMS (3)

[No requirements]

Works on all telephony networks

[No requirements]

Works on all phones, even not mobile

SMS

[Depends on the Handset]

Depends on the accessibility of the operating system of the handset

[Not Accessible]

only text representation

[Poorly Accessible]

Depends on the handset and the network. Very few operators supports appropriate encoding


No discoverability (1) mechanism/Doesn't work with portals

[Predictable cost]

Same as SMS

[Potentially Expensive]

Relatively expensive depending on the application

[No requirements]

Works on all mobile networks

[No requirements]

Works on all phones

Signalling Channel

USSD

[Depends on the Handset]

Depends on the accessibility of the operating system of the handset

[Not Accessible]

Only text representation

[Poorly Accessible]

Depends on the handset and the network. Very few operators supports appropriate encoding.



[Free]

Free

[Free]

Free

[No requirements]

Works on all mobile networks

[No requirements]

Works on all phones


- 9 -


Mobile Web

[Depends on the Content Developer]

OK if written in the right way following Web Content Accessibility Guidelines

[Potentially Accessible]

No guidelines available yet, but supports of icons and audio stream

[Accessible]

Infrastructure can support all languages of the World, but only few languages supported

[Discoverable]

Discoverability (1) through search engines and portals

[Not Predictable cost]

Not Predictable if not flat-rate plan

[Not Expensive]

Usually at least 1000 times cheaper than SMS

[Medium Requirements] Requires data service, GPRS minimum

[Medium Requirements]

Needs at least a java stack

Data Channel

Other data-service based applications

[no support]

No default support of assistive technologies or accessibility interface on the phone

[Potentially Accessible]

No guidelines available yet, but potential supports of icons and audio stream

[Problematic]

Depends on the handset, and the appropriate implementation of the applications.


No Discoverability (1) / on some platforms, application stores (2)

[Not Predictable cost]

Not Predictable if not flat-rate plan

[Not Expensive]

Usually at least 1000 times cheaper than SMS


Requires data service, GPRS minimum


Needs at least a java stack or an operating system APIs

(1) Discoverability: The ability for user to use tools to automatically find existing services, content or applications. The existence of search engines on the Web enables potentially all resources to be found by any users without external intervention

(2) Application stores: Digital distribution platforms for mobile devices. The application store is a service accessible directly from the phone as a specific application that allows users to browse and download applications. These applications are available to purchase or free of charge, depending on the application. The applications are downloaded directly to the phone.

(3) Usually the price of one SMS is equivalent to a voice call of around 10- to 30-second duration (national number, depending on intra/inter networks calls).


- 10 -


Table 3: technology capabilities vis-a-vis developer-related challenges

Tools Costs (for the content author) Deployment

Expertise Platform-level tools (1)

Application-level tools

(2)

Monetization of services Hosting Delivery Discoverability (3)

End-user Training

Voice Channel

VoiceXML

[Medium expertise required ]

No usability guidelines - but easy to use/easy to understand markup language

[Tools exist]

Free voice browsers, standalone or as extension for asterisk exists

Voice development frameworks exist

[No Tools]

No application-level tools exists yet

[Possible but hard to implement ]

Possibility to use surtaxed phone numbers / no monetization option at the application level

[Expensive]

Expensive infrastructure required but could be free if relying on a third-party infrastructure/hosting service

[Free]

Free except if callback mechanism implemented

[Existing Applications can be aggregated]

No discoverability (3) mechanism / Works with portals

[No Training Required]

Very easy to use for non-trained end-user

Other voice applications

[High expertise required]

No usability guidelines / requires programming skills

[Tools exist]

Free and open source tools available

[No Tools]

No application-level tool exists

[Possible but hard to implement ]

Possibility to use surtaxed phone numbers / no monetization option at the application level

[Expensive]

Expensive infrastructure required

[Free]

Free except if callback mechanism implemented



[No Training Required]

Very easy to use for non-trained end-user

Signalling Channel SMS [Low expertise

required]

Low expertise required on some SMS platforms

[Tools exist]

Lots of free and open source tools

[Few Tools exist]

Some application level tools available

[Difficult]

Premium rate SMS service (4) available but difficult to implement cross-

[Relatively Expensive]

Requires at least a pc and a GSM modem or Web connection +

[Expensive]

Cost of sending SMS is high for service providers



[Minimal training and Awareness Required]

Interaction at user's initiative /


- 11 -


(mostly data collections)

network and need deals with operators or other companies to setup

Subscription to Bulk

SMS provider

no way to know how to interact with the service. However people are used to use SMS client

USSD

[High expertise required]

Programming skills required

[No Tools]

No free and open source tools available

[No Tools]

No application level tools available

[Difficult]

No monetization possible except through the operator billing system

[Relatively Expensive]

Requires at least a PC and a GSM modem

[Free]

Free



[Training and Awareness Required]

Interaction at user's initiative / no way to know how to interact with the service

Mobile Web

[Low-expertise required]

Low expertise required, Free WYSIWYG authoring tools available

[Tools exist]

Lots of free and open tools for support, development or authoring

[Tools exist]

Few application level tools available

[Possible]

Classical ecommerce techniques available but no micropayment yet

[Free]

Free hosting available

[Free]

Free

[Discoverable]

Discoverability (3) through search engines and portals

[Minimal Training Required]

Need configuration and training on using a browser, but then easy to use content

Data Channel

Other data-service based applications

[High expertise Required]

Requires programming skills

[Few Tools exist]

Lots of free SDK (5)

[Few Tools exist]

Few specific tools available

[Possible]

Nothing specific available except with Application Stores

[Moderately Expensive]

Depends on the application, but usually rely on free web hosting solution

[Free]

Free

[Aggregation possible in some cases]

no Discoverability (3) / on some platforms, application stores (6)

[Training Required]

Needs specific application user training

(1) Platform-level tool: Platform-level tools enable the use of a particular technology in a completely free way, without any specific task focus. Examples of such tools are SMS Hub,


- 12 -


HTML authoring tools or Voice Authoring tools.

(2) Application level tool: More advanced tools focusing on specific tasks or type of applications, offering advanced features, complex user interactions, or dynamic content, for authors without programming skills.

(3) Discoverability: The ability for user to use tools to automatically find existing services, content or applications. The existence of search engines on the Web enables potentially all resources to be found by any users without external intervention.

(4) SDK: Software Development Kit

(5) Premium SMS Service: A way to have an SMS charged at a rate higher than a regular person-to-person SMS. See [3]a detailed definition.

(6) Application stores: Digital distribution platforms for mobile devices. The application store is a service accessible directly from the phone as a specific application that allows users to browse and download applications. These applications are available to purchase or free of charge, depending on the application. The applications are downloaded directly to the phone.



Key findings from other data sources

Table 4: key findings

Global Developed countries Developing countries

Mobile readiness

Penetration

Whereas high population coverage spans countries in all regions and a wide type of

country types and per-capita incomes, it is a different story with penetration.

Penetration is correlated with per-capita income.

There is interplay of geographic, commercial and policy factors which explain

variations in penetration. However, the clearest correlation that explains penetration is

per-capita income and a high total cost of mobile ownership. “Penetration depth

depends on matching tariff options to customer affordability, so long as operators are

able to maintain their costs at commercially sustainable levels.” Both geography and

policies will influence operators’ total cost and ability to maintain commercially viable

margins.

Tracking market

penetration against

population coverage

shows that African and

Asian countries, and the

Americas, make up the

vast majority of

countries with both low

penetration and low

percentage of the

population currently

under GSM signal

coverage.

Mobile penetration in the

developing world has

grown at an average

compound rate of 65%

per annum over the last

five years. (2008)

Coverage

By the end of 2010, 90% of the world’s population

will live in a place with access to a mobile network.

In rural communities 80% will have access to a

mobile network.

GSM World Coverage: in 2009 there were over 3.5

billion subscribers across 1,050 networks in 222

countries and regions.

3G networks are available in 143 countries.

In countries with uneven, sparsely populated areas,

population coverage can exceed geographical area

coverage by many times. In Europe, where

countries have achieved virtual universal coverage,

the ratios are typically 1:1. Most ratios are less than

Some countries such as

Sweden, Norway and the

United States are moving to

4G.

All countries in the Europe

region, except Turkey

(currently at 77%), have

achieved more than 80%

population coverage. 38

countries in the European

region have achieved

greater than 95% population

coverage. The USA has

achieved 94% population

In 2008, 63% of the rural

population in developing

countries had coverage,

leaving 37% uncovered.

In 2008, the world’s

uncovered areas were

in: India (26%); rest of

Asia-Pacific (19%); West

Asia and Middle East

(16%); Latin America

and Caribbean (15%);

Sub-Saharan Africa

(10%); Russia and

Eastern Europe (6%);



5:1, even in very unevenly populated countries.

Amongst the highest population coverage countries

all regions of the world and a wide range of country

types and per-capita incomes are represented.

The five network operators with the largest number

of subscribers are (1) China Mobile; (2) China

Unicom; (3) Bharti Airtel India; (4) AT&T US; (5)

Verizon US.

The five network operators with the largest monthly

churn are: (1) NTT Japan; (2) KDDI Japan; (3) Sing

Tel Singapore; (4) Chunghwa Taiwan; (5) T-mobile

Germany.

coverage and Canada 93%.

Australia has achieved 98%

population coverage with

New Zealand at 93%.

China (4%); and North

Africa (2%).

Reliability and traffic

Europa Technologies on behalf of the GSM Association produce quarterly maps of the coverage of GSM operators

and population distribution. A single consistent methodology is applied to all countries. The reporting guide specifies

signal strength and quality.

The Cisco Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast presents key global mobile data traffic information, projections and

growth trends. Globally mobile data will double every year between 2009 and 2014, increasing by 39 times. Mobile

data traffic will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 108% between 2009 and 2014, reaching 3.6 exabytes per

month by 2014. The Middle East and Africa will have the strongest growth of any region at 133% compound annual

growth rate, followed by Asia Pacific at 119% and North America at 117%

Almost 66% of the world’s mobile data traffic will be video by 2014. The rest will be made up by mobile web/data

(17%); mobile P2P (8%); mobile gamin (5%); and mobile VoIP (4%).

Each region’s mobile data traffic is strongly correlated with the average mobile speed available. The average

Smartphone mobile speed varies significantly by region, from 691kbps in Europe and 690kbps in Japan, to 418kbps

in North America; 321kbps in Latin America; 280kbps in the rest of Asia Pacific; 263kbps in Central Europe; and

106kbps in the Middle East and Africa.

Mobile subscribers are growing rapidly and bandwidth demand due to data and video is increasing. Mobile machine-

to-machine (M2M) connections continue to increase. Operators are rolling out increased bandwidth through

Enhanced Data rates for GSM Evolution (EDGE), Evolution-Data Optimized (EV-DO), High-Speed Downlink Packet

Access (HSDPA), and related upgrades. There is a need for backhaul capacity to increase in order for mobile

broadband, data access, and video services to engage the end consumer as well as keep costs in check.

By September 2009 more than 290 HSPA networks had launched worldwide.

A single laptop can generate as much traffic as 1,300 basic-feature phones. A smartphone creates as much traffic

as 10-basic-feature phones, although iPhones can generate as much traffic as 30-basic-feature phones.

The majority of mobile internet time is either “mobile internet time at home” or “mobile internet time on the go.”

However, results for developing countries such as India and China shows a more even split between using mobile at

home, at work and on the go. A relatively high proportion of home-based mobile data use (compared to use at work

and use on the go), suggests that operators may be able to offload traffic onto a fixed network. In Europe mobile



operators are offering mobile broadband services at prices and speeds comparable to fixed broadband.

However, a much greater amount of traffic will migrated from fixed to mobile networks. In particular, mobile only data

users are expected to grow in India from 163,000 in 2009 to over 300 million in 2014.

Tariffs and payment methods

“The majority of operators in developing countries now have low priced tariffs that allow subscribers to stay

connected even if they make only a few outgoing calls.” (2008)

“The average least price tariff, calculated on a monthly basis, was less than US$ 2 (mostly below this in the

developing country samples) and amounted to only 17% of the surveyed companies’ pre-paid ARPUs.” (2008)

“The trend is for these lowest available prices, to become even lower, as well as for users to be able to top up their

accounts with very small denomination refills increasing the affordability of mobile services.” (2008)

A research study looking at the nature of women mobile subscribers in low and middle income countries and the

barriers facing women’s adoption of mobile technologies, indicates that women do not always pay for their mobile

phone service themselves: often their spouse / parent / someone else will pay for their mobile phone service. This is

particularly true of women who are borrowers of mobiles (rather than owners of the device) and women who do not

currently use mobiles.

Ezetop and mashery created an international top-up app by partnering with more than 120 wireless carriers

worldwide. See more here.

Mobile subscriptions

By the end of 2010 there will be 5.3 billion mobile

subscriptions: 76 subscriptions per 100 people.

Subscriptions per 100 people are lowest in Africa

(41 per 100) followed by Asia and the Pacific (68 per

100); Arab nations (79 per 100), Americas (94 per

100), Europe (120 per 100) and CIS (132 per 100).

By the end of 2010 there will

be 1.4 billion mobile

subscriptions in developed

nations: 116 subscriptions

per 100 people.

By the end of 2010 there

will be 3.8 billion mobile

subscriptions in

developing nations: 68

subscriptions per 100

people

Growth in subscriptions

is being driven by

demand in the

developing world,

particularly India (0. 5

billion subs) and China

(0.75 billion subs) who

collectively added 300

million new subscribers

in 2010. This growth is

more than the total

mobile subscribers in

the US (0.29 billion

subs).

There are 300 million



fewer female

subscribers than male

subscribers in low and

middle income

countries. There are 1.1

billion female

subscribers (2.9 billion

females in total)

compared to 1.4 billion

male subscribers (2.9

billion males in total).

Difference in gender

subscriptions generally

correspond with overall

levels of economic

development and a

women’s role in society,

including education and

workforce participation.

Ownership vs. borrowing

of mobile phones is

strongly correlated to

income level and

urban/rural location.

Mobile broadband subscriptions

By the end of 2010 there will be 940 million

broadband subscriptions: 14 subscriptions per 100

people

Subscriptions per 100 people are lowest in Africa (4

per 100) followed by Asia and the Pacific (7 per

100); Arab nations (10 per 100), Americas (24 per

100), CIS (26 per 100) and Europe (46 per 100).

By the end of 2010 there will

be 631 million broadband

subscriptions: 51


people

By the end of 2010 there

will be 309 million

broadband

subscriptions: 5


people

The majority of

broadband subscriptions

in the developing world

are in China. China has

277 million mobile web

users, up 43 million in

six months.

Type of mobile device owned

A 2007 survey of 14,000 mobile device users in 37

countries indicated that the cell phone is by far the

A 2007 survey of 14,000

consumers in 37 countries

A 2007 survey of 14,000

consumers in 37



most owned device. Over 80% of survey

respondents in all regions owned a cell phone. In

contrast, across different regions, between 28% and

47% of users owned a MP3 played/iPod; between

20% and 47% of users owned a multi-function

device; between 10% and 23% of users owned a

smartphone; and between 5% and 13% owned a

PDA.

indicated that mobile device

ownership was consistently

lower in the US. Compared

to the other regions in the

survey, the US had the

lowest ownership of cell

phones; MP3/iPods; multi-

function devices and

smartphones (tied with

Western Europe). The one

exception was ownership of

PDAs, where the US was

broadly in line with

ownership in other regions.

It was more of a mixed

picture in Western Europe.

Ownership of smartphones

was joint lowest (tied with

the US) and ownership of

multi-function devices was

second lowest. In contrast

ownership of MP3 players /

iPods was joint highest (tied

with Latin America), and

ownership of cell phones

and PDAs was second

highest across all regions.

However a more recent

2010 report by Cisco

challenges these results. In

the US the install base of

smartphones over all mobile

handsets is 32% in 2009,

projected to grow to 55% in

2014. This is significantly

higher than developing

regions such as the Middle

East and South Africa (3%

in 2009), Central and

Eastern Europe (6% in

2009); Asia Pacific excl

Japan (8% in 2009).

countries, found that

people in developing

countries were more

likely to own multi-

function devices than

users in Western Europe

and the US. 45% of

respondents in Latin

America and Easter

Europe owned multi-

function devices

compared to 38% in

Western Europe and

20% in the US.

Devices: internet ready handsets



By 2011, over 85% of handsets shipped globally will

include some form of internet browser.

In 2009, smartphones represented only 15–16% of

global mobile device sales.

Smartphones are however a growing trend. Overall,

in 2009 there were between 1% and 5% fewer

mobile handset sales than 2008. Smartphone sales,

in comparison, went up between 15% and 24%.

Percentage of install base of smartphones over all

mobile handsets can be seen here:

www.cisco.com/en/.../white_paper_c11-520862.pdf

By 2011, approx 60% of

handsets shipped to mature

markets will be smartphones

with sophisticated browsing.

Penetration of 3G handsets

is strongest in developed

regions: Japan (91%);

Western Europe (39%);

North America (38%).

Penetration of 3G handsets

is expected to rise rapidly.

By 2014 penetration is

expected to be Japan

(100%); Western Europe

(92%); North America

(74%).

Penetration of 3G

handsets is still low in

developing regions:

South and Central

America (4%); Middle

East and Africa (7%);

AsiaPac without Japan

(7%); Eastern Europe

(9%).

Penetration of 3G

handsets by 2014 will

rise rapidly, but still not

cover the majority of

subscriptions: South and

Central America (17%);

Middle East and Africa

(35%); AsiaPac without

Japan (37%); Eastern

Europe (40%).

Morgan Stanley states

that “3G is key to the

success of mobile

internet.” However,

China has the highest

mobile internet usage in

the world despite low 3G

handset penetration.

Devices: manufacturers

In 2009, the top five mobile phone manufacturers

with the highest global market share are: Nokia (36–

38%); Samsung (20%); LG (10–11%); Sony

Ericsson (5%); Motorola (5%). Other manufacturers

combined accounted for 21–24%.

IDC finds that in 2009, the top five smartphone

manufacturers with the highest global market share

were: Nokia (39%); Research in Motion (20%);

Apple (14%); HTC (5%); Samsung (3%). Other

manufacturers accounted for 19%.

iStrategy 2009 finds that the top five smartphone

manufacturers are: Nokia (45%); RIM (19%); Apple

(13%); HTC (6%); other (14%).

Admobs finds that in

May 2010 Nokia is the

leading device

manufacturer in Africa,

Asia and Eastern

Europe. In comparison,

Apple leads in North

America, Oceania and

Western Europe.



Overall, Apple phones represent only 2.2% of new

handsets. Nokia sold three times as many handsets

in 2009, and have 17 times as many handsets in

total.

Mobile Access Equipment / Fixed Infrastructure

Providers: the global market share is Ericsson

(31%); Nokia Siemens Networks (22%); Alcatel

Lucent (14%); Nortel (7%); Huawei (7%); Motorola

(6%); NEC (5%).

Devices: operating systems

Gartner finds that the top five smartphone operating

systems with the highest global market share are:

Symbian – mostly Nokia (47%); Research in Motion

(20%); iPhone OS (14%); Microsoft Windows Mobile

(9%); Linux (5%); others (19%).

iStrategy finds that the top smartphone operating

systems are: Symbian (51%); RIM (19%) iOS (13%);

Windows Mobile (9%); Android (2%); other (6%).

Admobs finds that in

May 2010 Symbian is

the leading operating

system in Africa, Asia

and Eastern Europe. In

comparison, iOS leads

in North America, Latin

America, Oceania and

Western Europe

Mobile apps

The most used apps (not downloads) are Facebook, Google Maps, and The Weather Channel (TWC). The most

popular categories are games, news, maps, social networking, and music.

Predictions for the top consumer mobile apps by 2012: (1) money transfer particularly through SMS; (2) location-

based services grow from 96m in 2009 to 526m in 2012; (3) mobile search; (4) mobile browsing; (5) mobile health

monitoring; (6) mobile payments; (7) near-field communication services / data transfer; (8) mobile advertising; (9) IM;

(10) music.

Mobile use

Perceived advantages / barriers to using mobiles

A survey of more than 14,000 mobile users in 37 countries indicated that barriers were often region specific. Asian

respondents reported poor reception as an irritant; Latin American respondents cited lost messages and roaming

charges. In more developed regions, such as the US and Western Europe, respondents reported frustration with

other people’s load phone conversations and disconnects/drop-offs.

Globally the leading irritants and concerns of mobile device users were cost and battery life. Leading irritants: cost

(34%); battery life (34%); losing the phone/contact info (26%); stolen or damaged device (20%); other people’s loud

conversations (19%); disconnect and drop-offs (18%).

A global study of mobile phone subscription and usage by women in low and middle income countries, found that

mobile phone owners stated the following positive outcomes associated with mobile phone ownership: feeling safer

(93%); feeling more connected with family and friends (93%); feeling more independent (85%); and increased

income or professional opportunities (41%).



The study of mobile use by women in low and middle income countries found that the five main factors influencing

ownership of a mobile device, in priority order, were: (1) household income; (2) urban/rural location; (3) age; (4)

occupation; (5) education level. In terms of urban/rural location, a woman in an urban area is 23% more likely to own

a mobile phone than a woman in a rural area of the same age, income, education level and occupation. In terms of

household income, every additional US $100 in monthly household income increases a woman’s likelihood of

owning a mobile phone by 13%.

A survey of women in low and middle income countries produced the following reasons for not owning a mobile

phone: handset costs too much (42%); no need – everyone is local (20%); no need – have a landline (10%); monthly

service costs are too expensive (8%); lack of family/spouse permission (3%); fear of the technology (3); other

reasons (13%).

Use of mobile devices may be correlated with lack of other available technologies / infrastructure. A survey by the

UN/Vodafone Foundation of 560 NGO workers showed that 86% of NGO employees are using mobile technology in

their work. Staff working on projects in Africa or Asia were more likely to be mobile technology users than staff in

areas with “more wired infrastructures.”

Of the NGO staff using technology, 99% said that the impact of mobile technology was positive. Approximately a

quarter of respondents said the technology was “revolutionary” and 31% said it would be difficult to do their jobs

without mobile technology. The main benefits of using mobile technology were: time saving (95%); ability to mobilize

and organize individuals quickly (91%); reaching audiences who were previously difficult/impossible to reach (74%);

transmitting data more quickly and accurately (67%); ability to gather data more quickly and accurately (59%). 76%

of NGO staff said they would increase their use of mobile technology in the future.

New York University explored the barriers for NGO staff using mobiles for emergency relief. They found that even

organizations that actively used mobiles and PDAs did not use these devices in emergency operations.

Organizations “overwhelmingly” opted to use this technology in health and non-emergency operations.

Failed pilots of using mobiles/PDAs showed that “the technology was often blamed when human error and lack of

planning were more often the underlying factors to the outcome.” Lack of training was a significant barrier for all

groups. The largest concerns were training, cost and usability. Overall the study found that “when the right

technology components are used, combined with the other key determinants: funding, technical support, training,

and good attitudes, technology can support programs more efficiently and improve program effectiveness

significantly.”

Which functions are used

In 2009 it is estimated that SMS was used by four

billion users worldwide; approx 0.4 billion users

browsed the mobile web; and approx 55 million

users used m-banking.

A 2010 survey of consumers around the world found

that the most popular function is text messaging.

Consumers had used the following functions on their

mobile: sent a text (88%); taken a picture (85%);

listened to music (60%); read or sent an e-mail

(49%); watched a video (41%); opened a word

processing document/spreadsheet (23%); updated

A survey of mobile phone users around the world (2010)

indicated that developing regions were more likely to use

their phone for a wider range of functions. In North

America; Europe; Asia Pacific; Latin America and the

Middle East, 95%+ of users will use their phone as a

communication device. However, users in developing

regions were more likely to use their phone as an

entertainment device and as a mini computer compared to

users in North America and Europe.

Another 2010 survey of mobile consumers across the

world found that use of mobile functions was often higher



status on a social media website (21%); accessed

online banking (18%); purchased an item online

(9%).

Another 2010 survey of consumers around the world

also found that the top function consumers had used

weekly were text messaging. Consumers had used

the following functions on their mobile weekly:

sent/received a text (81%); listened to music (49%);

accessed the internet (48%); read/sent an email

(43%); IM (42%); check bank balance (22%);

checked sports scores (16%); watched live TV

(14%); checked traffic reports (12%); made

payments (10%); used Skype (9%).

A 2010 survey of consumers around the world found

that younger mobile phone users were significantly

more likely to use their phone as an entertainment

device and a mini computer. Using a mobile phone

as a communication device was broadly consistent

across different age groups.

A survey by the UN/Vodafone Foundation of 560

NGO workers showed that voice and text messaging

are the most common applications of mobile

technology among NGO workers.

NGO workers reported using wireless technology in

a number of ways: photo and video (39%); data

collection and transfer (28%); multi-media

messaging (27%); mapping (10%); data analysis

(8%); inventory management (8%).

in developing countries than developed countries. For

example, in the Americas region, 96%–97% of survey

respondents from Mexico and Argentina said they

sent/received texts at least weekly, compared to 43% of

survey respondents from the US, and 39% of survey

respondents from Canada. The only category where the

US and Canada scored more highly was checking sports

scores. Similarly in the Asia/Pacific region, 81% of survey

respondents from Australia said the sent/received texts at

least weekly, compared to 90% of respondents from India;

92% of respondents from Malaysia; and 98% of

respondents from Indonesia and China.

Which functions are used: messaging

In 2009, it is estimated that SMS was used by four billion consumers worldwide.

By the end of 2010, 6.1 trillion messages will have been sent worldwide. Triple the number sent in 2007. Worldwide

traffic is expected to exceed 10 trillion in 2013.

MMS, e-mail and IM are also growing strongly. The main drivers are: MMS (number of camera phones); e-mail

(business market); IM (youth market).

A 2010 study into how women use mobiles in low- and middle-income economies showed that there were vast

difference in use of SMS by different demographic group, which was not correlated to the average ARPU per month

($). The study asked how many SMS messages were sent per month. On average women at the “bottom of the

pyramid” sent 17 SMS messages; women in the home 26 SMS messages; career women 55 SMS messages; rural

women at work 61 SMS messages; and women at school 133 SMS messages.



Which functions are used: internet

In 2009, there were between 450 million and 530

million users who browsed the mobile web on their

handset. This is forecast to rise to over 1 billion by

2015.

The most popular activities are: mobile search,

reading news and sports information, downloading

music and videos, e-mail, and IM.

Over the next four years the fastest growing

activities are predicted to be purchasing, social

networking and blogging, accessing business apps,

and corporate e-mail systems.

Morgan Stanley believes that the world is in the

midst of a “fifth technology cycle” over the past half

century. The current cycle is the “era of the mobile

internet.” They predict that within the next five years

“more users will connect to the Internet over mobile

devices than desktop PCs.”

The percentage of the

mobile audience who have

used connected media in

2010 ranges from three

quarters in Japan to

approximately a third in

Europe. Japan (75%); US

(44%); Europe (39%).

China has by far the

World’s biggest mobile

web community. The

most popular activities

are: IM (62%); search

(48%); web music

(45%); web literature

(43%); social networking

(36%); games (21%);

video (20%); email

(15%); m-commerce

(6%).

Mobile internet

penetration in the teen

market (13–17) also

shows that China has

the biggest mobile web

community as a

percentage of global

share: China (50%).

However, the remaining

breakdown of mobile

internet penetration

market share is largely

concentrated in the

developed world.

Which functions are used: social networking

Social networks have the greatest mobile web reach in developed countries. The countries with the largest mobile

internet audiences are the UK (22.7%) and the US (19.2%), followed by France (12.3%); Italy (10.6%); Spain

(10.6%); and Germany (6.6%).

The audience composition of social networking communities is shifting from the young to the old. For example, the

greatest growth in global audience numbers for Facebook has come from those aged 35–49, followed by those aged

18–34, and then those aged 50–64.

The most popular social networks vary by country. Facebook is the most popular social network in the US, Australia,

Spain, Switzerland, France, the UK, and Italy. In contrast, Facebook is not in the top three in Brazil (Orkut), China

(51), Germany (Wer-kennt-wen), or Japan (Mixi).

Which functions are used: mobile financial

services



In 2009 there were 55 million users of m-banking

and related services. This was double the figure in

2008. The figure is expected to double again for

2010. The global customer base for m-banking is

predicted to be 0.5 billion by 2013 / 1.1 billion by

2015.

By 2011, 170 million mobile subscribers are

predicted to make person-to-person payments. This

is three times as many as traditional banking

functions. By 2015, the prediction is that 15% of

payments/transfers handled by agent networks will

be carried out by mobile handsets.

In 2009 there were 81 million people using mobiles

to make payments (in-app payments; mobile

ticketing; coupons). By 2014, this is predicted to rise

to 490 million (8% of subscribers). In contrast,

another research organization predicts that half of

mobile subscribers will pay by mobile for physical

and digital goods/service by 2014.

In Europe m-banking is in

early stages, driven by

convenience and value-

added rather than revenue

generation. In North

America and Europe m-

banking is seen as an

extension of online banking.

M-banking is expected to

grow by 2015 to 115 million

users in Europe and 86

million users in North

America.

The Bank of America is the

leader in US with 1.5 million

subscribers.

Growth in m-banking is

being driven by

operators and banks in

developing countries,

particularly Asia, to

“bank the unbanked.”

The Middle East and

Africa are also expected

to be important markets.

Transfers are growing

faster than m-banking.

The UN World Food

Programme plans to use

m-vouchers to deliver

food aid to 40,000 Iraqi

refugees by the end of

2010.

Amount of time spent using mobile

Amount of money spent using mobile

Mobile capability

Literacy rate

See individual country table data. There are significant variations, from 97% literacy in Chile to 60% literacy in Nepal.

Secondary education enrolment

See individual country table data. There are significant variations, from 97% enrolment in secondary education in

Chile, to 45% enrolment in Nepal. In Chile the mean average number of years schooling for adults is 9.7 years,

compared to 3.2 in Nepal.

Skills / confidence to use mobile phones

A survey of 14,000 mobile users in 37 countries (2007) was surprised to learn that mobile users in developing

regions such as Eastern Europe, Asia and Latin America considered themselves to be much more proficient with

mobile technology than more developed regions.

Percentage of respondents considering themselves to be proficient and technology savvy with mobile devices: Latin

America (73%); Eastern Europe (69%); Asia (63%); Western Europe (58%); US (50%).

The survey also found that developing countries reported a much higher dependency on using mobile devices in

their day-to-day lives. The report hypothesizes that this embrace of mobile services may reflect a lack of alternative



infrastructure for commerce and communication.

A 2010 survey of women mobile subscribers in low- and middle-income countries indicated that, for women who had

yet to make use of a mobile phone, their perceived ease of using a mobile phone was directly correlated to age

group: over 60% of women aged 14–21 said that using a mobile phone would be “easy or very easy,” compared to

under 50% of women aged 21–27, under 40% of women aged 28–36 and 37–49; and approximately 10% of women

aged 50–74.



Review of secondary literature: global trends

Mobile readiness: penetration

Low penetration

The GSMA’s 2008 report, Universal Access: how mobile can bring communication to all, demonstrates

that countries in Asia, Africa and the Americas make up the vast majority of countries with low

penetration and low population under GSM signal coverage. This finding is demonstrated in figure 2.

Figure 2: penetration and population under GSM coverage (GSMA, 2008)4

The correlation between penetration and per-capita GDP

GSMA’s 2008 report, Universal Access: how mobile can bring communication to all, explains that

variations in penetration are influenced by an “interplay of geographic, commercial and policy factors.”

The GSMA state that the one factor with the clearest correlation to penetration levels, is per-capita

income. This finding is demonstrated in figure 3.

4 GSMA, 2008, Universal Access: how mobile can bring communication to all



Figure 3: the correlation between penetration and per-capita GDP (GSMA, 2008)5

The ratio of total cost of ownership to per-capita GDP

Nielsen takes this analysis forward by adding in another factor: total cost of ownership (TCO). Nielsen

states that the ratio of total cost of mobile ownership to per-capita GDP corresponds to the level of

penetration. Nielsen’s report identifies 16 countries where the TCO is too high for lower-income

consumers, resulting in low levels of penetration. The majority of these 16 countries are in Africa. 6

The GSMA also outlines this finding: “penetration depth depends on matching tariff options to customer

affordability, so long as operators are able to maintain their costs at commercially sustainable levels . . .

both geography and policies will influence operators’ total cost and ability to maintain commercially

viable margins.”7 This finding is demonstrated in figure 4.


6 Nielsen, 2007




Figure 4: high total cost of ownership / GDP per capita ratio = penetration (Nielsen, 2007)8

Growth in mobile penetration

Mobile penetration in the developing world has grown at an average compound rate of 65% per annum over the last five years. The following three pages, figures 5–7, demonstrate mobile penetration rates, area and population coverage for sample developing countries in Latin America, Africa and Asia. These figures illustrate the significant variations in coverage and penetration from country to country. Some countries are reaching almost 100% area and population coverage, whilst others have less than 10% area and population coverage. However, very few countries have high levels of mobile penetration. With the exception of the Seychelles, most countries have less than 70% mobile penetration. 9

8 Nielsen, 2007




Figure 5: mobile penetration, area and population coverage: Latin America (GSMA, 2008)10




Figure 6: mobile penetration, area and population coverage: Africa (GSMA, 2008)11




Figure 7: mobile penetration, area and population coverage: Asia (GSMA, 2008)12




Mobile readiness: coverage

Calculating coverage

To calculate network coverage of GSM operations, the GSMA process two maps using GIS software:

GSM coverage; and population distribution. A consistent methodology is applied across all countries.

GSM’s coverage maps are compiled through the reporting of all GSM operators. Coverage maps are

produced quarterly. 13

High population coverage

The GSMA’s 2008 report, Universal Access: how mobile can bring communication to all, reports a

following levels of high population coverage across the developed world:

Europe: all countries in Europe have more than 80% population coverage, with the exception of

Turkey at 77%.

North America: the USA has 94% population coverage and Canada has 93% population

coverage.

Australia/New Zealand: Australia has 98% population coverage and New Zealand has 93%

population coverage.

Most developed countries do not have a Universal Service Fund (USF), as universal access have

“essentially been achieved commercially” and is not necessary. However, USA, Canada and Australia

are amongst the few OECD countries to have a USF.14

However, the GSMA also finds that high population coverage spans countries in all regions, and a wide

range of country type and per-capita incomes. There is no clear trend of the countries represented by

high levels of coverage.15 The ITU finds that 3G networks are available in 143 countries around the

world. Some countries are already moving to 4G, such as Sweden, Norway, Ukraine, and the United

States. 16

No coverage: distribution of the world’s uncovered markets

The ITU (October 2008) estimates that by the end of 2010 90% of the world’s population will live in a

place with access to a mobile network. There is a clear urban/rural split in level of coverage. By the end

of 2010, the ITU estimates that 80% of rural communities will have access to a mobile network.17

In 2008, the GSMA estimated that 63% of the rural population in developing countries had coverage.

The distribution of the 37% uncovered population was largely in India (26%); the rest of Asia-Pacific

excluding India and China (19%); North Africa (16%); and Latin America and the Caribbean (15%). This

finding is demonstrated in figure 8.




16 http://mobithinking.com/interview-susan-teltscher-itu / http://mobithinking.com/mobile-marketing-tools/latest-mobile-stats

17 http://mobithinking.com/interview-susan-teltscher-itu / http://mobithinking.com/mobile-marketing-tools/latest-mobile-stats



Figure 8: distribution of the world’s uncovered markets (GSMA, 2008)18

Population coverage vs. geographical coverage

Particularly in countries with uneven and very sparsely populated areas, population coverage can vastly

exceed the proportion of the land area covered (i.e. coverage map of Australia). Most countries in

Europe have achieved virtual universal coverage, so the ratio of population coverage to land area cover

is 1:1 (i.e. Netherlands). However, the GSMA finds that most ratios are less than 5:1, even in very

unevenly populated countries. This finding is demonstrated in figure 9.19

Figure 9: population covered vs. land area covered (GSMA, 2008)20






Coverage maps

The GSM Association produces coverage maps for the world, regions and individual countries. The

coverage maps show the technology market share, subscriptions and market penetration. “Network,

Services and Roaming information are continually updated to reflect the evolving situation worldwide.

Interactive coverage maps, updated quarterly, allow you to navigate to see where exactly you can use

your phone.”21 In figure 10 we provide an example of the world coverage map.

Figure 10: world coverage map with technology market share, subscriptions and market penetration (GSMA, 2009)22

21 http://www.mobileworldlive.com/coverage.asp

22 http://www.mobileworldlive.com/coverage.asp





Network operators

Portia Research has compiled the top five mobile network operators worldwide for a number of factors,

including: number of subscribers, total revenues, monthly average revenue per user (ARPU), monthly churn,

and the proportion of revenue derived from data.23 Unsurprisingly, Chinese operators dominate in the number

of subscribers, followed by operators in India and the United States. The top five operators with the highest

monthly average revenue per user (ARPU) are all European, whereas monthly churn and proportion or

revenue from data are almost exclusively operators in developed countries in Asia such as Japan,

Philippines, Singapore and Taiwan. These findings are demonstrated in table 5.

Table 5: top five worldwide operators (Portia Research, 2009)24 Rank Subscribers Total

revenues Monthly ARPU

Monthly churn

Proportion of revenue from data

1 China Mobile

China Mobile 3 UK NTT DOCOMO Japan

Smart Philippines

2 China Unicom

AT&T US Bouygues France

KDDI Japan Globe Philippines

3 Bharti Airtel India

Verizon US Vodafone Ireland

SingTel Singapore

SoftBank Japan

4 AT&T US NTT DOCOMO Japan

O2 Ireland Chunghwa Taiwan

NTT DOCOMO Japan

5 Verizon US Sprint US Orange Switzerland

T-Mobile Germany

KDDI Japan

Mobile readiness: reliability and traffic

Reliability

As described in section 3.2, the GSMA produces quarterly coverage maps. The reporting guide also

specifies signal strength and quality.25

Growth in traffic

Cisco produces global mobile traffic and mobile data traffic information, projections and growth trends.

The Cisco Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast presents key global mobile data traffic information,

projections and growth trends. Globally mobile data will double every year between 2009 and 2014,

increasing by 39 times. Mobile data traffic will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 108% between

2009 and 2014, reaching 3.6 exabytes per month by 2014. The Middle East and Africa will have the

23 http://mobithinking.com/mobile-marketing-tools/latest-mobile-stats





strongest growth of any region at 133% compound annual growth rate, followed by Asia Pacific at 119%

and North America at 117%.26 The growth in traffic by region is demonstrated in figure 11:

26 Cisco, 2010, Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast Update 2009-2014



Figure 11: mobile data traffic forecast by region (Cisco, 2010)27

Traffic generated by video

Cisco state that one of the major factors behind a growth in traffic is increasing use of mobile video.

They estimate that almost 66% of the world’s mobile data traffic will be video by 2014. The rest will be

made up by mobile web/data (17%); mobile P2P (8%); mobile gamin (5%); and mobile VoIP (4%).

Traffic generated by different types of device

Another major factor behind the growth in traffic is the use of more advanced devices. A single laptop

can generate as much traffic as 1,300 basic-feature phones. A smartphone creates as much traffic as

ten basic-feature phones, and iPhones can generate as much traffic as 30 basic-feature phones.

Mobile speed

Each region’s mobile data traffic is strongly correlated with the average mobile speed available. The

average Smartphone mobile speed varies significantly by region, from 691kbps in Europe and 690kbps

in Japan, to 418kbps in North America; 321kbps in Latin America; 280kbps in the rest of Asia Pacific;

263kbps in Central Europe; and 106kbps in the Middle East and Africa. These findings are summarised

in table 6.

Table 6: average smartphone mobile speed by region (Cisco, 2010)28

Region kbps

Asia Pacific 280

Japan 690

Western Europe 691

North America 418

Latin America 321





Middle East and Africa 105

Central Europe 263

Mobile networks and fixed networks

The majority of mobile internet time is either “mobile internet time at home” or “mobile internet time on

the go.” However, results for developing countries such as India and China shows a more even split

between using mobile at home, at work and on the go. A relatively high proportion of home-based

mobile data use (compared to use at work and use on the go), suggests that operators may be able to

offload traffic onto a fixed network. In Europe mobile operators are offering mobile broadband services

at prices and speeds comparable to fixed broadband.

However, a much greater amount of traffic will migrated from fixed to mobile networks. In particular,

mobile only data users are expected to grow in India from 163,000 in 2009 to over 300 million in 2014.

This finding is demonstrated in table 7.

Table 7: mobile-only data users (Cisco, 2010)29

Country 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

India 163,689 828,683 3,888,314 17,256,707 73,829,086 308,851,560

China 190,146 518,583 1,383,970 3,642,164 9,443,822 24,300,965

Korea 376,500 602,666 957,999 1,516,525 2,393,976 3,771,869

Japan 111,394 359,198 1,150,448 3,670,717 11,683,890 22,854,370

Brazil 827,558 3,040,933 10,931,351 38,597,115 60,403,090 78,730,025

Mexico 971,776 3,948,432 15,768,396 25,198,155 30,515,904 34,612,380

Italy 3,916,047 6,857,703 11,931,072 20,667,916 22,410,783 24,974,231

UK 600,749 1,552,295 3,985,042 7,133,489 8,947,340 11,918,730

Germany 25,647 52,057 105,116 211,393 424,078 6,570,142

France 54,576 168,444 515,510 1,569,244 4,759,895 6,844,943

U.S. 1,385,555 2,870,535 5,895,539 12,037,654 24,481,704 57,908,159

South Africa 2,088,275 4,713,732 10,554,417 15,557,597 20,701,824 24,924,517

Russia 2,137,895 4,165,446 7,995,997 15,187,490 28,634,331 29,505,517

In conclusion, Cisco reports that mobile subscribers are growing rapidly and bandwidth demand due to

data and video is increasing. Mobile machine-to-machine (M2M) connections continue to increase.

Operators are rolling out increased bandwidth through Enhanced Data rates for GSM Evolution (EDGE),

Evolution-Data Optimized (EV-DO), High-Speed Downlink Packet Access (HSDPA), and related




upgrades. There is a need for backhaul capacity to increase in order for mobile broadband, data

access, and video services to engage the end consumer as well as keep costs in check.30 Responding

to this challenge, by September 2009 more than 290 HSPA networks had launched worldwide.31 This

finding is demonstrated in figure 12:


31 ITU-D Regional Development Forum Javier Camargo, 2009, Mobile Broadband Evolution sharing experience gained in

competitive markets



Figure 12: 290 HSPA networks worldwide (ITU-D Regional Development Forum, 2009)32

32 ITU-D Regional Development Forum Javier Camargo, 2009, Mobile Broadband Evolution sharing experience gained in

competitive markets



Mobile readiness: tariffs and payments

Tariffs

The GSMA’s 2008 report, Universal Access: how mobile can bring communication to all, compares the

“least priced tariffs” with pre-paid average revenue per user (ARPUs) for 61 operators.33 GSMA’s key

findings are as follows:

“The majority of operators in developing countries now have low priced tariffs that allow

subscribers to stay connected even if they make only a few outgoing calls.”

“The average least price tariff, calculated on a monthly basis, was less than US$ 2 (mostly below

this in the developing country samples) and amounted to only 17% of the surveyed companies’

pre-paid ARPUs.”

“The trend is for these lowest available prices, to become even lower, as well as for users to be

able to top up their accounts with very small denomination refills increasing the affordability of

mobile services.”

Total cost of ownership

A 2007 study by Nokia found wide variation in the monthly total cost of mobile ownership (TCO) in

developing countries, ranging from less than $5 per month, to nearly $25 per month. These findings are

presented in figure 13.

Figure 13: monthly total cost of ownership by country (Nokia, 2007)34

Who pays?

A research study looking at the nature of women mobile subscribers in low- and middle-income

countries and the barriers facing women’s adoption of mobile technologies indicates that women do not

always pay for their mobile phone service themselves: often their spouse / parent / someone else will

pay for their mobile phone service. This is particularly true of women who are borrowers of mobiles

33 The sources were ARPUs reported by operators to the GSMA, and least-cost tariffs identified from pre-pay tariffs published on

operator websites.

34 Nokia, 2007



(rather than owners of the device) and women who do not currently use mobiles.35 This finding is

demonstrated in figure 14:

Figure 14: who does/would pay for you mobile service (GSMA Development Fund / Cherie Blair Foundation for Women, 2010)36

Borrowers

It is important to remember that in low- and middle-income economies many individuals do not own a mobile handset outright, but will borrow a handset. This is explored in the next section.

Mobile readiness: subscriptions

Global and regional subscriptions

The most recent estimates by the ITU (October 2010) report that by the end of 2010 there will be 5.3

billion mobile subscriptions (70% of the world’s population), up from 4.6 billion subscriptions at the end

of 2009. This growth is led by increases in India and China, who collectively added 300 million new

mobile subscriptions in 2010.37

Subscriptions per 100 people are lowest in Africa (41 per 100) followed by Asia and the Pacific (68 per

100); Arab nations (79 per 100), Americas (94 per 100), Europe (120 per 100) and CIS (132 per 100).38

This finding is demonstrated in table 8.

Table 8: global and regional mobile subscriptions (ITU, 2010)39

Global Developed

nations

Developing

nations

Africa Arab

States

Asia &

Pacific

CIS Europe Americas

Mobile cellular

subscriptions

5,282 1,436 3,846 333 282 2,649 364 741 880

Per 100 people 76.2% 116.1% 67.6% 41.4% 79.4% 67.8% 131.5% 120.0% 94.1%

35 GSMA Development Fund / Cherie Blair Foundation for Women, 2010, Women and Mobile: a global opportunity







Fixed telephone

lines

1,197 506 691 13 33 549 74 249 262

Per 100 people 17.3% 40.9% 12.1% 1.6% 9.4% 14.0% 26.6% 40.3% 28.1%

Countries with the largest mobile subscriptions

Unsurprisingly, the most populous nations have the most mobile subscriptions:

China – 747.4 million subscribers in 2009, growing to 1,311.7 million in 201440

India – 525.2 million subscribers in 2009, growing to 853.0 million in 201441

USA – 292.8 million subscribers in June 201042

Gender differences


countries and the barriers facing women’s adoption of mobile technologies finds that there are 300

million fewer female subscribers than male subscribers in low- and middle-income countries. There are

1.1 billion female subscribers (2.9 billion females in total) compared to 1.4 billion male subscribers (2.9

billion males in total). This finding is demonstrated in figure 15.

Figure 15: mobile ownership in low and middle income countries by gender (GSMA Development Fund / Cherie Blair Foundation for Women, 2010)43

The reasons for gender differences

40 eMarketer (February 2010), http://mobithinking.com/mobile-marketing-tools/latest-mobile-stats

41 eMarketer (February 2010), http://mobithinking.com/mobile-marketing-tools/latest-mobile-stats

42 CTIA, http://mobithinking.com/mobile-marketing-tools/latest-mobile-stats




The GSMA development fund study finds that difference in gender subscriptions generally correspond

with overall levels of economic development and a women’s role in society, including education and

workforce participation.44 The study details the following trends across different regions:

Latin America has a small gender gap (1%). This is attributed to high overall mobile penetration

rates and local conditions, i.e. emigration has left many women as head of the household in

Mexico.

South Asia has a larger gender gap. South Asia also has one of the lowest per-capita income

levels and a large proportion of residents in rural areas. India has the highest mobile gender gap of

the four countries involved in the survey, and is one of the more developed countries in the South

Asia region.

The mobile gender gap is more extreme in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Traditional female roles are

firmly rooted, leaving women with little control over the purchase of mobile phones.

An overview of the differences in the gender gap by region is shown in figure 16.




Figure 16: gender gap by region (GSMA Development Fund / Cherie Blair Foundation for Women, 2010)45




Ownership vs. borrowing


countries and the barriers facing women’s adoption of mobile technologies finds that ownership vs.

borrowing of mobile phones is strongly correlated to income level and urban/rural location. In terms of

urban/rural location, a woman in an urban area is 23% more likely to own a mobile phone than a woman

in a rural area of the same age, income, education level and occupation. In terms of household income,

every additional US $100 in monthly household income increases a woman’s likelihood of owning a

mobile phone by 13%. These findings are demonstrated by figures 17–19.46

Figure 17: ownership by income level (GSMA Development Fund / Cherie Blair Foundation for Women, 2010)47

Figure 18: ownership by ARPU as a % of household income (GSMA Development Fund / Cherie Blair Foundation for Women, 2010)48






Figure 19: ownership by urban/rural location (GSMA Development Fund / Cherie Blair Foundation for Women, 2010)49

The study also finds that ownership is influence by demographic group. Women at the “bottom of the pyramid” are most likely to not own a mobile device, and are the biggest borrowers. Only 20% of women at the bottom of the pyramid are own a device, compared to 90%+ of women at school and career women. This finding is shown in figure 20.

Figure 20: ownership by demographic group (GSMA Development Fund / Cherie Blair Foundation for Women, 2010)50

Mobile readiness: broadband subscriptions

Global and regional subscriptions

The most recent estimates by the ITU (October 2010) show by the end of 2010 there will be 940 million

broadband subscriptions globally. This equates to 14 subscriptions per 100 people.51 The most recent






estimate by the ITU (October 2010) shows that subscriptions per 100 people are lowest in Africa (4 per

100) followed by Asia and the Pacific (7 per 100); Arab nations (10 per 100), Americas (24 per 100),

CIS (26 per 100) and Europe (46 per 100).52 These findings are demonstrated in table 9.

Table 9: global and regional mobile broadband subscriptions (ITU, 2010)53

Global Developed

nations

Developing

nations

Africa Arab

States

Asia &

Pacific

CIS Europe Americas

Mobile broadband

subscriptions

940 631 309 29 34 278 72 286 226

Per 100 people 13.6% 51.1% 5.4% 3.6% 9.7% 7.1% 25.9% 46.3% 24.2%

Fixed broadband

subscriptions

555 304 251 1 8 223 24 148 145

per 100 people 8.0% 24.6% 4.4% 0.2% 2.3% 5.7% 8.7% 23.9% 15.5%

Developed countries lead the way.

The number of mobile broadband subscriptions per 100 people is significantly stronger in the developed

world. By 2007, 14 inhabitants per 100 people in developed countries had mobile broadband

subscriptions, compared to 0.9 inhabitants per 100 people in developing countries. This finding is shown

in figure 21.

Figure 21: mobile broadband subscriptions in developed and developing countries (ITU, 2009)54

Countries with the largest mobile broadband subscriptions

China leads the way as the nation with the more mobile broadband subscriptions. The China Internet

Network Information Centre (CINIC) reports (July 2010) that there are 277 million mobile Web users in China,



54 ITU, Measuring the Information Society, 2009



up 43 million in six months. There will be more mobile Internet users in China at the end of 2010 than there

are people in the US – the world’s third largest nation.55

55 eMarketer, http://mobithinking.com/mobile-marketing-tools/latest-mobile-stats



Mobile readiness: types of mobile devices owned

Cell phones are the most owned device across all regions

A survey of 14,000 mobile device users in 37 countries (2007) demonstrated that cell phones are the most owned type of device: over 80% of survey respondents in all regions owned a cell phone. In contrast between 28% and 47% of users owned a MP3 played/iPod; between 20% and 47% of users owned a multi-function device; between 10% and 23% of users owned a Smart Phone; and between 5% and 13% owned a PDA.

The survey also showed that people in developing countries more likely to own multi-function devices than users in Western Europe and the US: 45.1% of Latin American users owned multi-function devices.

44.8% of Eastern European users owned multi-function devices.

38% of users in Western Europe owned multi-function devices.

19.7% of respondents in the U.S owned multi-function devices.

Compared to the other regions in the survey, the US had the lowest ownership of cell phones; MP3/iPods; multi-function devices and smartphones (tied with Western Europe). The one exception was ownership of PDAs, where the US was broadly in line with ownership in other regions.

It was more of a mixed picture in Western Europe. Ownership of smartphones was joint lowest (tied with the US) and ownership of multi-function devices was second lowest. In contrast ownership of MP3 players / iPods was joint highest (tied with Latin America), and ownership of cell phones and PDAs was second highest across all regions.

These findings are demonstrated in figure 21.

Figure 21: ownership of different types of mobile device (GSM, 2007)56

56 GSM, 2007, Global Mobile Mindset Audit





Smartphones are a more significant proportion of mobile handsets install base in developed countries

However, a more recent 2010 report by Cisco challenges the 2007 GSM Mobile Mindset Audit results reported on the previous page. In the US the install base of smartphones over all mobile handsets is 32% in 2009, projected to grow to 55% in 2014. This is significantly higher than developing regions such as the Middle East and South Africa (3% in 2009), Central and Eastern Europe (6% in 2009); Asia Pacific excl Japan (8% in 2009).57 These findings are demonstrated in table 10.

Table 10: install base of smartphones over all mobile handsets (Cisco, 2010)58

57 Cisco, 2010, Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast Update, 2009-2014




Mobile readiness: internet-ready devices

Devices with an internet browser

Gartner predicts that by 2011 over 85% of handsets distributed globally will include some form of internet

browser. Gartner had previously predicted that in 2009, 60% of handsets shipped globally would include

some form of internet browser.

Morgan Stanley states that “3G is key to the success of mobile internet.” However, as mobilthinking points

out, it is important to note that China has by far the highest mobile internet usage in the world despite low 3G

handset penetration.59

3G handsets




The penetration of 3G handsets is strongest in developed regions: Japan (91%); Western Europe (39%);

North America (38%). The penetration of 3G handsets is expected to rise rapidly. By 2014 penetration is

expected to be Japan (100%); Western Europe (92%); North America (74%).

Penetration of 3G handsets is still low in developing regions: South and Central America (4%); Middle East

and Africa (7%); AsiaPac without Japan (7%); Eastern Europe (9%).

Penetration of 3G handsets in the developing world is predicted to rise rapidly. However, by 2014 3G

handsets still not cover the majority of subscriptions: South and Central America (17%); Middle East and

Africa (35%); AsiaPac without Japan (37%); Eastern Europe (40%).60

The top regions and countries for penetration of 3G handsets is outlined in table 11.

Table 11: top regions and countries for penetration of 3G handsets (Morgan Stanley, 2009)61

Top regions for penetration of 3G handsets, according to Ovum

Top 10 countries for penetration of 3G handsets, according to Informa

Region 2009 2014 Country %

Japan 91% 100% Japan 87

Western Europe 39% 92% South Korea 71

North America 38% 74% Australia 52

Eastern Europe 9% 40% Singapore 41

Asia Pac (without Japan) 7% 37% Israel 39

Middle East & Africa 7% 35% Spain 38

South & Central America 4% 17% USA 37

Sweden 37

Austria 37

Portugal 33

Italy 33

Global 15% 43% Global 11%

Smartphones are a growing trend

Mobilthinking’s literature review finds that in 2009 smartphones represented only 15% of global mobile

device sales. However, in developed markets, such as Western Europe and Japan, approximately 60%

of handsets shipped in 2011 will be smartphones with sophisticated browsing capabilities. Smartphone

sales showed strong growth worldwide, in comparison to a fall in sales for handsets overall.





Gartner finds that 1,211.2 million mobile handsets were sold in 2009, down 0.9% on the previous

year. Smartphones were 14.2% of all handsets shipped.

IDC finds that 1,127.8 million mobile handsets were sold in 2009, down 5.2% on the previous year.

Smartphones were 15.5% of all handsets shipped.62

Mobile readiness: device manufacturers

Mobile manufacturers

In 2009, the top five mobile phone manufacturers with the highest market share were: Nokia (36-38%);

Samsung (20%); LG (10-11%); Sony Ericsson (5%); Motorola (5%). Other manufacturers combined

accounted for 21–24%.63 These findings are presented in table 12.

Table 12: top mobile manufacturers in 2009 (IDC, 2010 / Gartner, 2010)64

Top five mobile phone manufacturers in 2009, according to IDC

Top five mobile phone manufacturers in 2009, according to Gartner

Rank Vendor Market share Rank Vendor Market share

1 Nokia 38.3% 1 Nokia 36.4%

2 Samsung 20.1% 2 Samsung 19.5%

3 LG 10.5% 3 LG 10.1%

4 Sony Ericsson 5.1% 4 Motorola 4.8 %

5 Motorola 4.9% 5 Sony Ericsson 4.5%

Others 21.2% Others 24.7%

Smartphone manufacturers

In 2009, the top five smartphone manufacturers with the highest market share are: Nokia (29%); Research in

Motion (20%); Apple (14%); HTC (5%); Samsung (3%). Other manufacturers accounted for 19%.

Mobilthinking reminds us that overall, Apple sold 25.1 million phones in 2009 – while this sounds impressive it

is only 2.2% of new handsets. Nokia sold nearly three times as many smartphones (67.7 million) as Apple

and 17 times as many handsets in total (431.8 million).65 These findings are represented in table 13.







Table 13: top smartphone manufacturers in 2009 (IDC, 2010)66

Top five smartphone manufacturers in 2009, according to IDC Rank Vendor Market share

1 Nokia 38.9%

2 Research In Motion 19.8%

3 Apple 14.4%

4 HTC 4.6%

5 Samsung 3.3%

Others 19.0%

Device manufacturers by region

Admobs finds that in May 2010 Nokia is the leading device manufacturer in Africa, Asia and Eastern Europe.

In comparison, Apple leads in North America, Oceania and Western Europe. These findings are

demonstrated in figure 22.

Figure 22: mobile device manufacturers market share by region (Admobs, 2010)67

Mobile access equipment / fixed infrastructure

Globally, Ericsson holds the largest market share in providing mobile access equipment and fixed

infrastructure. The top providers are: Ericsson (31%); Nokia Siemens Networks (22%); Alcatel Lucent

(14%); Nortel (7%); Huawei (7%); Motorola (6%); NEC (5%).68


67 AdMob, 2010, Mobile Metrics May 2010

68 Mobile Idate, 2009



Mobile readiness: device operating systems

Mobile operating systems: globally

According to Gartner, the top five smartphone operating systems in 2009 with the highest global

marketshare are: Symbian – mostly Nokia (47%); Research in Motion (20%); iPhone OS (14%);

Microsoft Windows Mobile (9%); Linux (5%); others (19%).69 These findings are presented in table 14.

Table 13: top smartphone operating systems in 2009 (Gartner, 2010)70

Top five smartphone operating systems in 2009, according to Gartner Rank Vendor Market share

1 Symbian (mostly Nokia) 46.9%

2 Research In Motion 19.9%

3 iPhone OS 14.4%

4 Microsoft Windows Mobile 8.7%

5 Linux 4.7%

Others 19.0%

Mobile operating systems: regionally

Admobs finds that Symbian is the most used operating system in Africa, Asia and Eastern Europe, and iOS is the more common operating system in North America, Oceania and Western Europe. These findings are presented in figure 23. Figure 24 presents another view of the mobile operating systems in use across different countries.

Figure 23: mobile operating systems by region (Admobs, 2010)71



71 AdMob, 2010, Mobile Metrics May 2010



Figure 24: mobile operating systems by country (iCrossing, 2010)72

Mobile readiness: apps

Current trends

Mobilthinking’s literature review (drawing on findings from Nielsen, 2010) finds that the most used apps

across all smartphones in the US – as opposed to downloaded – are Facebook, Google Maps and The

Weather Channel (TWC). The most popular categories are games; news; maps; social networking and

music. On average US feature-phone users have 10 apps on board and smartphones have 22 apps (of

which iPhone users have the most with 37).73

Future trends

Gartner (2009) predicts the following top 10 consumer mobile applications for 2012. The order was

determined by impact on consumers and industry players, considering revenue, loyalty, business

model, consumer value and estimated market penetration):

“No. 1: Money transfer – most services offering person-to-person transfers, using Short Message

Service (SMS), signed up several million users within their first year. (See mobile financial services

section below for all the stats on money transfers).

“No. 2: Location-based services – Gartner predicts that the LBS user base will grow globally from

96 million in 2009 to more than 526 million in 2012.

“No. 3: Mobile search – the user experience of mobile search needs to improve to drive customer

loyalty and drive sales and marketing opportunities.

72 i-crossing, 2010, Mobile Browser Market Share February 2010




“No. 4: Mobile browsing – 60% of handsets shipped in 2009 can browse the mobile Web, rising to

approximately 80% in 2013. Therefore, the mobile Web will be a key part of most corporate B2C

mobile strategies.

“No. 5: Mobile health monitoring – i.e. using IT and mobile telecommunications to monitor patients

remotely. So far it has been limited to pilot projects.

“No. 6: Mobile payment – paying for goods and services over the mobile Web. (For all the

statistics, see m-payments section below).

“No. 7: Near-field-communication services – NFC allows contactless data transfer between devices

and terminals typically to pay for transport or to cash in a mobile coupon.

“No. 8: Mobile advertising – Gartner expects spending on mobile advertising to reach US$7.5

billion in 2012 from US$530.2 million in 2008.

“No. 9: Mobile instant messaging – Gartner thinks users really desire Mobile IM, especially in

developing markets. This presents an opportunity for mobile advertising and social networking.

“No. 10: Mobile music – apart from ring tones and ring-back tones, which have turned into a

multibillion-dollar service, mobile music has so far has been disappointing.”74

ABI Research (May 2010) predicts that demand for app stores is expected to peak in 2013 and then will

slowly decrease as subscribers migrate from download apps to mobile Web sites and more popular

download apps, such as social networking, are preloaded on mobile devices.75

Mobile use: perceived advantages and barriers to using mobiles

Irritants and concerns using mobile devices

A survey of more than 14,000 mobile users in 37 countries found that the leading irritants and concerns of mobile device users were cost and battery life. The leading irritants in full were: cost (34%); battery life (34%); losing the phone/contact info (26%); stolen or damaged device (20%); other people’s loud conversations (19%); disconnects and drop-offs (18%).76 These findings are presented visually in figure 25.






Figure 25: leading irritants and concerns of mobile device users (GSM, 2007)77

Irritants and concerns by region

The Global Mobile Mindset Audit found that reported problems were often region-specific; for example: 25% of respondents in Asia reported poor reception as an aggravation

18% of respondents in Latin America cited lost messages as a problem, and 15% listed high

roaming charges as a significant irritant

In more developed regions such as the U.S. and Western Europe, respondents cited frustration

with other people’s loud cell phone conversations along with aggravating disconnects and drop-

offs.

Women in low and middle income countries: positives associated with mobiles

A global study of mobile phone subscription and usage by women in low and middle income countries, found that mobile phone owners stated the following positive outcomes associated with mobile phone ownership: feeling safer (93%); feeling more connected with family and friends (93%); feeling more independent (85%); and increased income or professional opportunities (41%). These findings are presented in figure 26.

Figure 26: positive outcomes and feeling associated with mobile phone ownership (GSMA Development Fund / Cherie Blair Foundation for Women, 2010)78





The study of mobile use by women in low and middle income countries found that the five main factors influencing ownership of a mobile device, in priority order, were: (1) household income; (2) urban/rural location; (3) age; (4) occupation; (5) education level. In terms of urban/rural location, a woman in an urban area is 23% more likely to own a mobile phone than a woman in a rural area of the same age, income, education level and occupation. In terms of household income, every additional US $100 in monthly household income increases a woman’s likelihood of owning a mobile phone by 13%.

In comparison, when surveyed women in low and middle income countries produced the following reasons for not owning a mobile phone: handset costs too much (42%); no need – everyone is local (20%); no need – have a landline (10%); monthly service costs are too expensive (8%); lack of family/spouse permission (3%); fear of the technology (3); other reasons (13%).79 These findings are displayed in figure 27.

Figure 27: top reasons for not owning a mobile phone (GSMA Development Fund / Cherie Blair Foundation for Women, 2010)80

NGO staff: advantages





Between December 10, 2007 and January 13, 2008, 560 non-governmental organization (NGO) workers participated in a survey designed to demonstrate how NGOs are using wireless technology to help reach various social, civil, economic, and political goals.

Eight-six percent of NGO employees are using mobile technology in their work. NGO representatives working on projects in Africa or Asia are more likely to be mobile technology users than their colleagues in areas with more ‘wired’ infrastructures. Ninety-nine per cent of technology users characterize the impact of mobile technology as positive. Moreover, nearly a quarter describe this technology as “revolutionary” and another 31 percent say it would be difficult to do their jobs without it. These findings are presented in table 14.

Table 14: positive impact of mobile technology (UN Foundation / Vodafone Foundation, 2008)81

Positive impact of mobile technology %

It has completely revolutionized the way my organization or project does its work

25

It would have been very difficult to do the work without it 31

It is/was very helpful for my organization or project 36

It is/was only somewhat helpful 8

Ultimately, it is/was more of a burden that a help 0

It was a waste of time and money 0

The survey also revealed that the key benefits of mobile technology for NGO staff includes: time savings (95%); the ability to quickly mobilize or organize individuals (91%); reaching audiences that were previously difficult or impossible to reach (74%); the ability to transmit data more quickly and accurately (67%); and the ability to gather data more quickly and accurately (59%). Not surprisingly given this data, 76% of NGO users said they would be likely to increase their use of mobile technology in the future.82

NGO staff: barriers

New York University83 interviewed domestic and international non-profit organizations, primarily those with a presence in the field of emergency relief. To the team’s surprise, even those organizations that were very active in PDA use, with one exception, were not using them in emergency programs. Groups working in international relief that use PDAs instead overwhelmingly opted to use them for health and other nonemergency surveys.

81 UN Foundation and Vodafone Foundation, 2008, Wireless Technology for Social Change: Trends in Mobile Use by NGOs


83 New York University, 2009, Budgets, Batteries, and Barriers PDA Implementation Issues for NGOs



Failed pilots of using mobiles/PDAs, showed that “the technology was often blamed when human error and lack of planning were more often the underlying factors to the outcome.” Lack of training was a significant barrier for all groups. The largest concerns were training, cost and usability. Overall the study found that “when the right technology components are used, combined with the other key determinants: funding, technical support, training, and good attitudes, technology can support programs more efficiently and improve program effectiveness significantly.”

The study found that organizations with positive outcomes “supported internal drivers of new technology, had better planned survey and questionnaire designs, involved the technology provider at their initial planning stage, and found ways to secure the necessary resources and funding.”

Information about some of the key barriers that the study identified are presented in table 15.

Table 15: positive impact of mobile technology (New York University, 2009)84

Barrier Study findings

Training “Training was a barrier for all groups, regardless of size. People, not technology, seemed at the core of this barrier. Tech-savvy staff are essential for training, and if they are in short supply or the lead staffer on a program is resistant to change, successful pilots and training of others is unlikely. Groups working exclusively in disaster response were most challenged by training, relying on a diverse group of volunteers and conducting training at the site of an emergency. Time constraints posed enormous training barriers. With a limited number of PDAs to go around, training all staff who might benefit from exposure to new technology proved daunting for many interviewees. While one group created new teams specifically to use PDAs and train others on-site in the field, it seemed that creating online training modules would be a benefit to all.”

Handset durability “Field workers have extensive practical experience in extreme heat, extreme cold, floods, and other hardship situations. Thus the assumption is that any device they use in the field will have to meet minimum durability requirements. Most NGOs have a general awareness of the types of existing products on the market, from hand-held PDAs to traditional cell phones. The larger concerns appear to center around training, cost, and usability.”

Trying to do too much, too fast

“The temptation to gather too much information appears to be a very real issue when using new technology in the field. The freedom from pen and paper, the novelty of the device, and the

84 New York University, 2009, Budgets, Batteries, and Barriers PDA Implementation Issues for NGOs



desire to get the absolute most use of a costly new investment can lead workers to incorporate too many variables into their now digital questionnaires, resulting in collection and back end analysis of data that has no direct bearing on the immediate project at hand. This can lead to delays in decision-making when attempting to use the collected data for planning next steps. It is crucial that the data collection objectives are as clearly defined.”

Language “Concern over survey language came up repeatedly in interviews. Translation can add to the cost and the speed of response, depending on the organization’s PDA support capacity.”

Storing and controlling distribution of technology

“Since emergencies may be infrequent in any given country, it is often more cost effective to store PDAs in a central location that can be sent out with emergency response teams when the need arises, as in the Red Cross model. . . . [T]he Disaster Services Department houses all of the PDAs at headquarters, and sends them out with their Quick Assessment Teams when responding to a large disaster. That way headquarters controls the use of the PDAs, centrally collects and analyzes all of the data, and is responsible for all of the maintenance and support costs.”

Digital vs. paper-based “In contrast, it can be very cost effective to use PDAs over paper surveys in specific country programs that will routinely use the devices to collect data. PDAs only need to be shipped to a country once, and there is more time to allow for surveys and data to be translated into the necessary languages. The international organizations using PDAs in the field are primarily keeping data in-country and either not transmitting it to headquarters, or doing so on an ad hoc basis by e-mailing Excel spreadsheets to headquarters for longer-term decision making.”

Mobile use: which functions are used?

Mobile users in developed countries

According to ComScore's comparison survey (June 2010) Japanese consumers are still much more

advanced in their mobile usage, but “US and European consumers are catching on fast.”85 Use of

connected media ranges from 39% in Europe to 75% in Japan. However, use of SMS messaging is

reversed, ranging from 82% in Europe to 40% in Japan. The full findings are presented in table 16.




Table 16: use of mobiles in Japan, United States and EU5 (UK, Germany, France, Spain and Italy) (ComScore, 2010)86

Function / Country Japan United States Europe

Connected media

Used connected media (browser, app or download) 75.2% 43.7% 38.5%

Used browser 59.3% 34.0% 25.8%

Used application 42.3% 31.1% 24.9%

Used messaging

Sent text message 40.1% 66.8% 81.7%

Instant messaging 3.3% 17.2% 12.6%

E-mail 54.0% 27.9% 18.8%

Accessed social media/entertainment

Social networking or blog 17.0% 21.3% 14.7%

Listened to music 12.5% 13.9% 24.2%

Took photos 63.0% 50.6% 56.8%

Recorded video 15.4% 19.2% 25.8%

Watched TV and/or video 22.0% 4.8% 5.4%

Played games 16.3% 22.5% 24.1%

Accessed financial services

Bank accounts 8.0% 9.4% 7.1%

Financial news or stock quotes 16.1% 10.0% 7.2%

Accessed retail/travel/weather

Retail site 7.2% 5.5% 4.1%

Classifieds 4.2% 6.6% 4.2%

Travel service 3.3% 4.7% 4.1%

Maps 15.7% 16.0% 10.8%

Traffic reports 12.6% 8.2% 5.9%

Weather news 34.1% 22.3% 13.7%

Mobile users globally




A 2010 survey of mobile users around the world found that the most popular function is text messaging.

Overall, consumers had used the following functions on their mobile: sent a text (88%); taken a picture

(85%); listened to music (60%); read or sent an e-mail (49%); watched a video (41%); opened a word

processing document/spreadsheet (23%); updated status on a social media website (21%); accessed

online banking (18%); purchased an item online (9%).87 These results are shown in table 17.

87 Oracle, 2010, The Future of Mobile Communications



Table 17: use of mobiles globally (Oracle, 2010)88

Function %

Sent a text 88

Taken a picture 85

Listened to music 60

Read or sent an e-mail 49

Watched a video 41

Opened a word processing document/spreadsheet 23

Updated status on a social media website 21

Accessed online banking 18

Purchased an item online 9

Another 2010 survey of consumers around the world also found that the top function consumers had

used weekly was text messaging.89 Consumers had used the following functions on their mobile weekly:

sent/received a text (81%); listened to music (49%); accessed the internet (48%); read/sent an e-mail

(43%); IM (42%); check bank balance (22%); checked sports scores (16%); watched live TV (14%);

checked traffic reports (12%); made payments (10%); used Skype (9%). These results are displayed in

figures 27 and 28.

Figure 27: use of the following mobile functions weekly (Sybase, 2010)90


89 At least 250 mobile phone users participated in the survey in each country. Overall, the survey was completed by slightly more

than 4,100 mobile users. The countries in the survey were United Kingdom, Spain, Germany, Italy, France, South Africa, Mexico,

United States, Argentina, Canada, India, China, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Australia.

90 Sybase, 2010, Global Consumer Acceptance + Usage Report



Figure 28: use of the following mobile functions weekly (Sybase, 2010)91

Developed country use vs. developing country use

The Sybase survey also found that use of mobile functions was often higher in developing countries

than developed countries. For example in the Americas region, 96%–97% of survey respondents from

Mexico and Argentina said they sent/received texts at least weekly, compared to 43% of survey

respondents from the US, and 39% of survey respondents from Canada. The only category where the

US and Canada scored more highly was checking sports scores. Similarly in the Asia/Pacific region,

81% of survey respondents from Australia said the sent/received texts at least weekly, compared to

90% of respondents from India; 92% of respondents from Malaysia; and 98% of respondents from

Indonesia and China. These trends can be seen in tables 18 and 19.

Table 18: use of the following mobile functions weekly: Americas (Sybase, 2010)92

Table 19: use of the following mobile functions weekly: Asia-Pacific (Sybase, 2010)93






These results are consistent with the Oracle survey of mobile phone users around the world (2010)

which also indicated that developing regions were more likely to use their phone for a wider range of

functions. In North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, Latin America and the Middle East, 95%+ of users will

use their phone as a communication device. However, users in developing regions were more likely to

use their phone as an entertainment device and as a mini computer compared to users in North

America and Europe.94 These findings are presented in figure 29.

Figure 29: mobile phone use (Oracle, 2010)95

Age

The Oracle survey also showed that younger mobile phone users were significantly more likely to use their phone as an entertainment device and a mini computer. Using a mobile phone as a communication device was broadly consistent across different age groups. This finding is presented in figure 30.





Figure 30: mobile phone use by age group (Oracle, 2010)96

Mobile use by NGO staff

Between December 10, 2007 and January 13, 2008, 560 non-governmental organization (NGO) workers participated in a survey designed to demonstrate how NGOs are using wireless technology to help reach various social, civil, economic, and political goals.

While voice and text messaging are still the most common applications of mobile technology among NGO workers, respondents report using wireless technology in a number of other ways, including photo and video (39%); data collection or transfer (28%); and multimedia messaging (27%). The survey also finds that some NGO workers using mobile technology for more sophisticated purposes such as data analysis (8%), inventory management (8%), and mapping (10%).97 These findings are presented in table 20.

Table 20: use of mobile functions by NGO staff (UN Foundation / Vodafone Foundation, 2008)98

Use of mobile functions other than voice/text %

Photo and video 39

Data collection or transfer 28

Multimedia messaging 27

Mapping 10

Data analysis 8

Inventory management 8






Mobile use by women in low and middle income economies

A 2010 study into how women use mobiles in low- and middle-income economies shows that women at school and career women were most likely to own a mobile phone and to have the highest ARPU per month ($). Across the board SMS was used. Rural women at work and career women were also likely to use their phones to find employment.99 These findings are

presented in figure 31.

Figure 31: mobile phone use by women in low and middle income economies (GSMA Development Fund / Cherie Blair Foundation for Women, 2010)100

Mobile use: messaging

Mobilthinking’s literature review found that by the end of 2010, 6.1 trillion messages will have been sent worldwide. Triple the number sent in 2007. Worldwide traffic is expected to exceed 10 trillion in 2013.

The ITU (October 2010) estimates that 6.1 trillion messages will be sent worldwide in 2010, that is

triple the number sent in 2007 (1.8 trillion). That means 200,000 text messages are sent every

second, earning operators US$14,000 every second (if the average text costs US$0.07). The most

number of texts are sent in the Philippines and the United States.

Portio Research (February 2010) estimates that SMS is used by four billion consumers worldwide and

that worldwide SMS traffic will exceed 10 trillion in 2013.

MMS, e-mail and IM are growing strongly. The main drivers are: MMS (number of camera phones); e-

mail (business market); IM (youth market).101





Mobile use by women in low and middle income economies

A 2010 study into how women use mobiles in low- and middle-income economies showed that there

were vast difference in use of SMS by different demographic group, which was not correlated to the

average ARPU per month ($). The study asked how many SMS messages were sent per month. On

average women at the “bottom of the pyramid” sent 17 SMS messages; women in the home 26 SMS

messages; career women 55 SMS messages; rural women at work 61 SMS messages; and women at

school 133 SMS messages. 102 These findings are presented in figure 32.

Figure 32: number of SMS messages sent per month (GSMA Development Fund / Cherie Blair Foundation for Women, 2010)103

Mobile use: internet access

Mobilthinking’s literature review of mobile internet use draws the following conclusions about how many

people have mobile internet access:

The ITU (February 2010) expects mobile Web access – via laptops and smart mobile devices – to

overtake desktop Web within the next five years.104 / Morgan Stanley believes that the world is in

the midst of a “fifth technology cycle” over the past half century. The current cycle is the “era of the

mobile internet.” They predict that within the next five years “more users will connect to the Internet

over mobile devices than desktop PCs.”

Strategy Analytics (March 2010) estimates that at the end of 2009 almost 530 million users

browsed the mobile Web on their handset. This is forecast to rise to over 1 billion by 2015.

IDC (December 2009) estimates there were more than 450 million mobile Internet users worldwide

in 2009; this will pass the 1 billion mark by 2013.







Mobile internet penetration in the teen market (13–17) also shows that China has the biggest mobile

web community (50%). However, mobile internet penetration is otherwise largely concentrated in the

developed world.105 These findings are demonstrated in figure 33.

105 Nielsen, 2009, How Teens Use Media



Figure 33: teen (13–17) mobile internet penetration (Nielsen, 2009)106

What do users do online?

Mobilthinking’s literature review of mobile internet use draws the following conclusions about how

people use mobile internet

CINIC reports (July 2010) that among China’s mobile Web users – the world’s biggest mobile Web

community – the most popular activities are: instant messaging (62%); search (48%); web music

(45%); web literature (43%); social networking (36%; games (21%); video (20%); e-mail (16%); and

m-commerce (6%).

IDC (December 2009) believes the most popular activities today are: mobile search, reading news

and sports information, downloading music and videos, and sending/receiving e-mail and instant

messages. Over the next four years, IDC predicts the fastest-growing activities will be purchasing,

social networking and blogging. Accessing online business applications and corporate email

systems will also grow rapidly.107

Mobile use: social networks

Developed countries

Social networks have the greatest mobile web reach in developed countries. The countries with the

largest mobile internet audiences are the UK (22.7%) and the US (19.2%), followed by France (12.3%);

Italy (10.6%); Spain (10.6%); and Germany (6.6%). These findings are shown in figure 34.





Figure 34: social networks with the greatest mobile web reach (Nielsen, 2009)108

The top mobile social media brands mirror the top PC-based social networking brands

ComScore data about social networks in Japan, the United States and the EU5 demonstrated that in all three markets, the top mobile social media brand mirrored the top PC-based social networking brand with Facebook leading in the US and Europe, and Mixi leading in Japan. Twitter was the only brand to be ranked in the top four in all markets.109

Table 21: use of mobile social networking/chat/blogs in Japan, US and EU5 by largest audience size (ComScore, 2008)110

Japan United States Europe

Mixi Facebook Facebook

Gree MySpace YouTube

Twitter YouTube MSN / Windows Live / Bing

Mobage Town Twitter Twitter

The most popular social networks (not necessarily accessed via mobile)


109 Comscore, 2010,

http://www.comscore.com/Press_Events/Press_Releases/2010/10/comScore_Release_First_Comparative_Report_on_Mobile_U

sage_in_Japan_United_States_and_Europe

110 Comscore, 2010,

http://www.comscore.com/Press_Events/Press_Releases/2010/10/comScore_Release_First_Comparative_Report_on_Mobile_U

sage_in_Japan_United_States_and_Europe



The most popular social networks vary by country. Facebook is the most popular social network in the

US, Australia, Spain, Switzerland, France, the UK, and Italy. In contrast Facebook is not in the top three

in Brazil (Orkut), China (51), Germany (Wer-kennt-wen), or Japan (Mixi). These findings are

demonstrated in figures 35 and 36.



Figure 35: the most popular social networks: countries where Facebook is the leader (Nielsen, 2009)111

Figure 36: the most popular social networks: countries where Facebook is not the leader (Nielsen, 2009)112

Use of social networks by age group

The audience composition of social networking communities is shifting from the young to the old. For

example, the greatest growth in global audience numbers for Facebook has come from those aged 35–

49, followed by those aged 18–34, and then those aged 50–64. This finding is presented in figure 37.

Figure 37: growth in the facebook audience by age (Nielsen, 2009)113








Mobile use: financial services114

Sybase survey

A survey by Sybase of mobile phone users across the world115 produced the following findings: “Only 14% of mobile users in the Americas currently use their handset to conduct mobile banking.

This is below the worldwide average of 30% and significantly below the number in the Asia Pacific

region who use mobile banking (47%). Usage is highest in Mexico (19%) and lowest in Canada

(8%).”

“Asia Pacific mobile users are comfortable with using their phone for banking and financial

purposes. 47% currently use their mobile handset to conduct mobile banking. This total is much

higher than in other world regions, with only 14% in the Americas using their phone for banking.

Usage of mobile banking in the region varies greatly from country to country. 75% of those in China

use mobile banking, while only 35% in Malaysia and 34% in Singapore do the same.”

“Over a fifth of users in Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA) are using mobile banking

services on their phones. The most frequent activity is balance checking, done by 81% of mobile

bankers in the region. For many mobile bankers (35%), this is the only service they ever use. The

next most common activity is getting statements upon request (51%) – this is one banking activity

more common in EMEA than elsewhere.“

mobilthinking literature review

mobilthinking has produced a thorough review of research studies about mobile financial service, mobile banking and commerce which we have provided in full below.

Table 22: mobile financial services literature review (mobilthinking, 2010)116

Mobilthinking’s mobile financial services literature review

Mobile financial services (MFS) (m-banking, m-wallets, remittance/transfers etc) are growing fast: • Berg Insight (April 2010) estimates that users of m-banking and related services (including money

transfers) doubled between 2008 and 2009 to 55 million and will double again in 2010. In 2015 there

will be 894 million users globally. Growth is being driven by efforts by operators and banks in

developing countries (particularly in Asia) to bank the unbanked. • Global Industry Analysts (GIA) (February 2010) predicts the global customer base for m-

banking will reach 1.1 billion by the year 2015.

• ABI Research (January 2009) forecasts that in 2013, there will be nearly half a billion customers of

MFS, including m-banking, mobile domestic person-to-person payments (i.e. money transfers) and

international person-to-person payments.

Asia will be the key market for MFS, driven by initiatives to bank the unbanked and money


115 Sybase, Mobile Commerce and Mobile CRM, April 2010




transfers:

• Berg Insight: More than half of global MFS customers will be in Asia Pacific – Middle East and Africa is also expected to be important market – as mobile operators drive initiatives to bank the unbanked. • GIA: Asia-Pacific will emerge as the predominant MFS market in terms of customer base. In Middle

East and Africa, the need to provide financial services to remote areas will be central to the growth of m-banking. • For more insight into MFS in developing nations, see: The insider's guide to banking the unbanked.

In developed nations m-banking will be driven by banks:

• GIA: In North America and Europe, m-banking is extension of online banking, as banks respond to

growth of mobile Web. But in Europe, m-banking is in early stages, driven by convenience and value-add rather than revenue generation. • Berg Insight: Evolving from traditional/online banking; m-banking will attract 115 million users in

Europe and 86 million users in North America, by 2015. • ABI: Banking institutions will be the major promoters of MFS, as it helps to increase customer

‘stickiness,’ help banks cut costs and automate, and most importantly, to reach the unbanked.

• ABI: In the US, Bank of America is a leader of m-banking. Launched in May 2007 it now has 1.5 million subscribers.

Remittance/transfers by mobile is growing much faster than m-banking (driven by developing

nations)

• ABI Research (July 2009) predicts that 170 million mobile subscribers worldwide will make

domestic person-to-person payments (i.e. transfers) in 2011 – that's three times as many as those that

will conduct traditional banking functions by mobile. This is driven by the enthusiasm for such services

in developing world often from previously ‘unbanked’ people.

• Berg Insight predicts international money transfers will increasingly be done by mobile. By 2015 3–

15 percent of transfers handled by agent networks today will be carried out by mobile handset (worth

US$1.2–6.2 billion in revenues to the mobile industry).

Worldwide mobile payments (m-payments) are growing strongly, but will still only be worth 5

percent of ecommerce retail sales in 2014:

• N.B. definitions of m-payments may vary.

• Portio Research (March 2010) estimates there were 81.3 million people worldwide using their

mobile device to make payments (including in-app payments, mobile ticketing and mobile coupons) in

2009. By the end of 2014, this is forecasted to rise to nearly 490 million (8% of mobile subscribers). The volume of m-payments i.e. face value of purchases and transactions was US$68.7 billion in 2009, rising to US$633.4 billion by end-2014. • Juniper Research (April 2010) predicts that almost half of global mobile subscribers – both

developed and developing nations - will pay by mobile for physical and digital goods and services

(such as ticketing) by 2014. For example, in 2014, more than 500 million people will make m-payments

on the Indian Sub Continent.

The volume of m-payments (i.e. how much they spend) will be US$170 billion this year, growing to



$630 billion by 2014. But this is only 5% of ecommerce retail sales. • But IDC (May 2010) believes that in EMEA, m-payments will take off slower than m-banking, forecasting that less than 13% of mobile subscribers will be registered to use m-payments and volume of m-payments will be no more than $125 billion. Thus m-payments will take off slower than many industry observers hope, due to the complexity and set-up costs for retailers. However, strong growth in m-banking will lay the foundations for growth in mobile payments.

Shopping on the mobile Web, i.e. m-commerce will reach US$119 billion in 2015 predicts ABI Research (February 2010), that’s about 8% of the total e-commerce market: • Today, Japan is king of m-commerce, where mobile Web shopping exceeded US$10 billion in 2009, making the US$1.2 billion bought in the US by mobile look trifling. For more insight on Japan, see this: guide to mobile in Japan

• M-commerce in Europe is expected to outpace the US by the end of 2010. • Long-term growth in m-commerce will come from developing nations where mobile is virtually the only way to access the Internet.

Top m-commerce retailers include:

• In 2009, the top m-commerce retailer according to Altimeter Group (June 2010) was Taobao, (part

Chinese Web giant Alibaba Group) with an estimated $800 million in revenues.

• “In 2009, eBay’s mobile gross merchandise volume (“GMV”) was over $600 million. eBay expects to

generate $1.5 billion in GMV through mobile commerce in 2010,” according to eBay (October, 2010).

• “In the last twelve months, customers around the world have ordered more than US $1 billion of

products from Amazon using a mobile device," according to Jeff Bezos, Amazon.com (July 2010).

More than 1 in 10 mobile subscribers will use m-ticketing in 2014, estimates Jupiter Research

(April 2010):

• Services are developing fastest in the transport sector, particularly rail and metro companies and

airlines, but m-ticketing is also used in concerts and movies.

• Hotspots for transport m-ticketing include Japan, Scandinavia and Austria.

• Airlines increasingly offer not only mobile boarding passes, but ticket booking and payment as well.

• But lack of standards has led to multiple ticket scheme environments which could impede growth.

M-coupons will dominate mobile retail marketing spend until 2013, according to Juniper Research (March 2010):

• Mobile retail will exceed US$12 billion by 2014 (mobile retail is defined as m-coupon redemption values, smart poster fees and advertising expenditure). • The mobile retail sector would initially be dominated by coupons, but mobile advertising expenditure will exceed coupon redemption values by 2013 • The m-coupon service of McDonald’s Japan is used by 4.5 million users, according to Infinita (March 2010).

• The United Nations’ World Food Programme (WFP) (October 2010) plans to use m-vouchers to

deliver food aid to 40,000 Iraqi refugees in Syria by the end of 2010.



Mobile capability: skills and confidence to use mobile devices

A survey of 14,000 mobile users in 37 countries was surprised to learn that mobile users in developing

regions such as Eastern Europe, Asia and Latin America considered themselves to be much more

proficient with mobile technology than more developed regions. The percentage of respondents

considering themselves to be proficient and technology savvy with mobile devices is as follows: Latin

America (73%); Eastern Europe (69%); Asia (63%); Western Europe (58%); US (50%).117

The survey also found that developing countries reported a much higher dependency on using mobile

devices in their day-to-day lives. The report hypothesizes that this embrace of mobile services may

reflect a lack of alternative infrastructure for commerce and communication.

Women in low and middle income economies

A survey of women mobile subscribers in low- and middle-income countries carried out in 2010118

indicated that for women how had yet to make use of mobile phone, their perceived ease of using a

mobile phone was directly correlated to age group. Over 60% of women aged 14–21 said that using a

mobile phone would be “easy or very easy,” compared to under 50% of women aged 21–27, under 40%

of women aged 28–36 and 37–49, and approximately 10% of women aged 50–74%. This finding is

demonstrated in figure 38.

Figure 38: perceived ease of using a mobile phone by age (GSMA Development Fund / Cherie Blair Foundation for Women, 2010)119

.

117 GSM Global Mobile Mindset Audit, 2007



Evaluating mobile apps and their relevance for MoLE: WP3


Five ‘country profiles’ Mobile readiness: infrastructure

Infrastructure

Country

Penetration120

Coverage: %

population

covered by

mobile cellular

network121

Area

coverage122

Coverage

GSM

frequencies123

Coverage

3G124

Coverage:

CDMA450125

Coverage

: HSPA126

Tariff

1-minute local call

peak hours (2008)

in US $127

Tariff

Price of

one SMS

(2008) in

US $128

Tariff

Mobile cellular

prepaid tariff

per month

(2008)129

Chile 72% 93% 30% 1900 1900 and

1700/2100

Mobilink –

450/800

HSDPA $0.64 $0.13 $ 13.70

Haiti - 35% - 850 / 900 / 1800 - - - $1.60 - -

Indonesia 24% 64% 8% 900 / 1800 2100 STI – 1X HSDPA +

HSUPA

$0.16 $0.01 $ 5.30

Nepal 3% 2% 1% 900 / 1800 - - - $0.08 $0.03 $ 2.90

Thailand 51% 97% 91% 900 / 1800 / 1900 2100 - HSDPA $0.02 $0.09 $ 3.90

120 GSMA, 2008, GSMA universal access how mobile can bring communication to all 121 GSMA, 2008, GSMA universal access how mobile can bring communication to all / http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Telecommunications_in_Haiti 122 GSMA, 2008, GSMA universal access how mobile can bring communication to all 123 http://www.worldtimezone.com/gsm.html / http://www.mobileworldlive.com/coverage.asp 124 http://www.worldtimezone.com/gsm.html / http://www.mobileworldlive.com/coverage.asp 125 CDG, CDMA450 Global Update, August 31, 2010 126 ITU-D Regional Development Forum, Mobile Broadband Evolution: Sharing experience gained in competitive markets, 2009 127 http://mobileactive.org/ Please note that MobileActive is being updated November 2010 with up-to-date information. 128 http://mobileactive.org/ Please note that MobileActive is being updated November 2010 with up-to-date information. 129 http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/IT.MBL.USEC.CD/countries/1W?display=default



Mobile readiness: access

Access

Country

Mobile subscriptions per

100 people (2009)130

Broadband

subscriptions

(2007)131

Devices132

Chile 96.94

0.4 -

Haiti 36.36 - -

Indonesia 69.25 1.4 Nokia (49%) and

Sony Ericsson

(25%)

Nepal 25.97 - -

Thailand 122.57 - Nokia (72%)

GLOBAL 68 9.5 59.3

130 http://data.un.org/Data.aspx?d=MDG&f=seriesRowID:756 and http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/IT.CEL.SETS.P2/countries/1W?display=default

131 ITU, Measuring the Information Society 2009. The ITU Yearbook of Statistics Telecommunication/ICT Indicators contains 2010 country-by-country data on broadband subscriptions. However, the

ITU 2010 indices are not free of charge.

132 Information on devices across all countries is not available from one source. This data is taken from http://www.i-policy.org/mobile_and_wireless/



Mobile use

We have not been able to identify a single reliable country-by-country data source regarding how consumers use their mobiles. In addition we have been able to identify very little information about developing countries such as Haiti or Nepal, where there are low numbers of devices and limited access to broadband. We have identified data on mobile usage, including trends in developed and developing regions, via our review of secondary literature and global trends (section 3) – however, no single source has results for every country.

Some information exists in relation to Nepal, particularly in the Everest region. Ncell, a subsidiary of Swedish phone giant TeliaSonera, has set up a high-speed third-generation (3G) phone base station at an altitude of 5,200 meters near Gorakshep village in the Everest region. A total of eight base stations, four of which will run on solar power, have been installed in the region with the lowest at 2,870 meters at Lukla, where the airport for the area is situated. Despite the installation in Everest, telecom services cover less than one-third of the 28 million people of Nepal, one of the poorest countries in the world. TeliaSonera said it planned to invest US$100m in the next year to ensure that mobile coverage increases to more than 90% of the Himalayan nation's population.133

Indonesia case study

A recent survey of mobile users and how they use their mobile phones includes results for Indonesia.134 The findings in this report show that sending and receiving SMS messages is the most popular mobile function, with 98% of users citing this function. This also reflects a global trend: SMS messages tripled over the past three years to reach 6.1 trillion in 2010. To put it another way, close to 200,000 text messages are sent every second.

In Indonesia, downloading and listening to music is the second most popular function, cited by 79% of users. Perhaps more surprisingly, 94% of the population access the mobile internet at least once a day, and chose better browsing capability as the additional service they would be most interested in.

133 Information from http://www.i-policy.org/mobile_and_wireless/

134 Global Consumer Acceptance and Usage report: Syabase Mobile Services, April 2010





Mobile capability

Skills

Country

Literacy rate

aged 15+

(2008)135

Percentage of people aged 15

years and older who can, with

understanding, both read and

write a short simple statement

on their everyday life.136

Mean years of

schooling (of

adults)

Population with at

least secondary

education

Confidence/skills using

phone

Chile 98% 96.9% 9.742 96.5%

Haiti 62% 65.3% 4.895 61.9%

Indonesia 91% 92.0% 5.658 77.8%

Nepal 57% 60.3% 3.235 44.8%

Thailand 94% 94.7% 6.558 75.9%

Information on

confidence and skills

using mobile across all

countries is not available

from one source.

The ITU provide an ICT

skills index, which could

be a useful proxy.

135 http://data.un.org/Data.aspx?q=literacy&d=SOWC&f=inID%3a74

136 http://hdrstats.dev.undp.org/en/indicators/6.html



Other country information

Factors

Country

Provider

market share

Network providers Service plans Roaming GDP per

capita

(2008

PPP

US$)137

Population

living below

$1.25 PPP per

day138

Population

affected by

natural

disasters (per

million

inhabitants)139

Chile

Movistar: 44%

Entel: 38%

Claro: 18%

Movistar Spanish

Entel Chile - Spanish

Claro Chile - Spanish

Movistar plans - Spanish

Entel plans - Spanish

Claro plans - Spanish

Movistar roaming - Spanish

Entel roaming - Spanish

Claro roaming - Spanish

$14,780.156

9,090

Haiti

Digicel (Unigestion Holdings) French

Comcel

Haitel - French

Digicel plans - French

COMCEL data currently unavailable

Haitel plans - French

Digicel Roaming - French

COMCEL data currently unavailable

Haitel data currently unavailable

$1,040.251

24,936

Indonesia

Telkomsel: 46%

Indosat: 20%

XL Axiata: 19%

Hutchinson: 8%

Axis: 3%

Smart: 2%

Mobile-8: 2%

Ceria: 0.01%

Telkomsel

Indosat

XL Axiata

Hutchison CP (3) - Indonesian

Axis

Smart-Telecom - Indonesian

Mobile-8 - Indonesian

Ceria

Telkomsel plans

Indosat plans

XL pre/post pay plans

Hutchinson CP 3 plans - Indonesian

Axis plans

Smart-Telecom plans - Indonesian

Mobile-8 plans - Indonesian

Telkomsel roaming

Indosat roaming

XL roaming

Hutchinson CP 3 roaming - Indonesian

Smart-Telecom roaming - Indonesian

Mobile-8 roaming - Indonesian

$4,394.326

2,144

Nepal

Nepal NTC: 65%

NCELL: 35%

Nepal Telecom (NTC)

Ncell (Spice Nepal)

UTL (United Telecom Limited)

NTC GSM plans / NTC CDMA plans

Ncell postpaid plans / Ncell prepaid plans

UTL Tariff plans

NTC Roaming partners

Ncell Roaming charges by country $1,189.24

0

The Human

Development

Report statistical

section is

presently

unavailable. The

latest available

data is currently

being inputted.

8,678






Thailand

True Corp: 24%

DTAC - part Thai site

Advanced Info Service (AIS)

True Corp (True Move)

Thaimobile - Thai

Hutch (3)

DTAC plans (via happy.co.th)

AIS price plans / 1-2-Call plans

True Move prepay plans / postpay plans

Thaimobile plans - Thai

Hutch prepay plans / postpay plans

Hutch mobile internet plans

DTAC roaming

AIS roaming packages by region

True Move roaming

Hutch inbound roaming

$8,328.235

171,743

GLOBAL http://mobileactive.org (details on providers/networks)

http://www.mobileworldlive.com/coverage.asp (details on coverage maps, network providers info, roaming, services from each providers; and

available frequencies)



Key organizations and sources A crucial outcome of this market research is to capture the key organizations and sources of information identified during the course of research activities. This information will serve as recommended starting points to use when updating the research report content.

Given the vast numbers of organization and sources we have identified to date, we have set up a separate document in which to catalogue the key organizations and sources, and another r document in which to catalogue the key projects and apps.

In this section we provide the catalogue template with example entries.

Source template

Publication Date Weblink Description Framework

Category Indices

Global /

Region /

Country

Rohan Samarajiva - Ayesha Zainudeen ICT Infrastructure in Emerging Asia: Policy and Regulatory Roadblocks

2009 http://www.idrc.ca/en/ev-117916-201-1-DO_TOPIC.html

This book brings together scholars, practitioners, former regulators, and policymakers to address the problem of expanding information and communication technology (ICT) connectivity in emerging Asia.

Technology Readiness: Infrastructure

Asia

Organisation template

Organisation Website What do they do in relation to mobiles?

UN Foundation International Telecommunications Union (ITU)

MobileActive GSM World / GSMA Telecoms Sans Frontiers