Home Page03 May 2016

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G.C.CSaudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia›s vision:

Restructuring the economy in the kingdom is a process of socio-political development as far as acquisition of the variables in the economic system of the state, and the political authority realization to the importance of this shift is itself a confrontation to the challenges to comply with the development operating within Saudi society.

The Saudi project arbitrage needs to develop an integrated agenda concerned with the art of “change managing”, where we see that the economic transformation process that requires a parallel study on the depth of the social and cultural influences, although there are intellectual motionless change in line with the vision of Saudi Arabia among the young, who make up %30 of the people, but in the same time it should be having conventional streams that might consider carefully the implications of this change and its impact on the value structure in which the kingdom underpinning on.

It may be the most important slogans of the current stage is the prudence, so out of the possession of King Salman bin Abdul Aziz and Prince Mohammed bin Salman vision may precede the popular understanding to the details of accessing the objectives of the economic project, in other words, there is a correlation must be recognized, between the Saudi traditions and the current economic structure, there is also a correlation between this structure and power tools owned by the official and unofficial Saudi religious establishment, and therefore, sudden change may cause serious tremor on several levels, most notably the rise of extremism to resist the social repercussions of this economic transformation.

The tools to Achieve resettlement plan: The promises to expand the labor market in the private sector for Saudi citizens are the main engine to ensure public trust to the 2030’s draft, in the same time it must be acknowledged that the preparation and the creation process of citizens› is to take advantage of the new projects that require a timetables and plans, which makes the issue of awareness towards these points is extremely important, in order to prevent unrealistic assumptions and waiting for the rapid economic products. it is important to take into consideration that the transfer of working concept in Saudi Arabia and earn a daily basis is a fundamental ambition, needs an entire generation to be prepared and Based on the Vocational, scientific and psychological training operations to alter the idea of the State›s responsibility in the labor market, to the idea of individual creativity and be pushed for competition.

Parallel economic and political tracks:Barter System and local political dimension:the local dimension is Considered as the most important at the present time, the Saudi regime depends on the old trade-off system between the royal family and the Saudi people›s, which is based on the ruling family acquaintance to the political elements of the Verdict against the provision of basic services and emphasis on social spending, Thus it is important to keep in

mind that breaking the social contract conditions through the removal of subsidies on certain services provided by the state would lead a parallel political results in Saudi society, which are is possible to demand a share of the political decision-making system, and we remember the case of dissatisfaction with the removal of subsidies on water and electricity, which led to the dismissal of the minister recently. Thus the most important results of the Saudi vision are the political repercussions that they will incur.The Ruling Family: Based on the idea of a parallel political implications for economic reform, it is likely to have disparity of opinion within the ruling family, as a result of anxiety that might be caused by switching the social conditions of the contract, it is difficult to imagine The ruling family accept the participation, especially some of the traditional streams of political power, but maybe this could be considered a Threat for stability in the Kingdom on one hand, and to the ruling family position on the other. Prince Mohammed bin Salman advancement over his cousins, those who are age larger, in addition to the King Abdul Aziz sons, might be possible to cause a lot of a state of dissatisfaction within the ruling family and surroundings class, which may increase the negative consequences of the reform movement carried out by King Salman and Prince Mohammed bin Salman within the family.

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Yemen

Estimating the negotiating process in Kuwait:First: the false perception:

Second: the interpretation of the political movement for the Houthis:

• The Houthis realize the intentions of Saudi Arabia in closing the Yemen file and ending the crisis based on political process, thus they are trying to raise the ceiling of their demands to get the largest possible political share.

• For the kingdom, they recognize that part of the Yemeni component is Houthis, and that they would have a role in Yemen after the crisis, but the vision is focused on giving them a role which consists with the Houthis as a political and popular component within the system of Yemen rather than contradicting or incompatibility with such a system.

• The erroneous idea of seeing the Houthis is that the Kingdom will not close the Yemeni file at any price, and therefore the success of these negotiations is inconceivable if the Houthis and saleh did not reach a realistic vision for their political and military status, which could further deteriorate at any moment.

• The Houthis Problem is that they do not want to sustain a great loss in the gains they achieved so far, taking into consideration that they have lost a lot of them since the start of the Arab coalition forces operations in Yemen, and therefore it does not seem that they have a clear political vision to their own goals within the negotiation process, that matter explains the state internal division which suffers from.

• There are parties within the Yemeni crisis, including Ali Abdullah Saleh, living on the continuity of the crisis, which is likely to lose its role in the event of a political solution, and that the military loss for it may be a retreat from certain sites and to barricade in safe areas, therefore it is better than the solution, which could mean political exclusion or liquidation.

The Houthis attendance to any negotiation process’s cannot be considered as submissive to the United Nations terms, or the output of any international consensus around the Yemeni file, The Houthis and saleh, still have the benefit of power tools, although their military capabilities declined and receded in the areas they control.

The belief that the Houthis will surrender their weapons and cities they control them through the negotiation process or in the followed short period is unexpected, but it may be unrealistic by the fact that giving up their military capabilities will not be unless there were two possibilities: the first is the loss of the war once and for all, the second is the Advanced post-completion stage of negotiations and the completion of restoring the confidence path between the parties.

the Houthis vision of their place in Yemen starts from the idea of the continued existence of tribal support for them in the cities where they are located, and thus they do not see the intruders to win a political position, but they still think it is right for them.

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Iraq

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Characterization of the latest alignments:A sharp split between Haider al-Abadi al-Maliki and his rival for the leadership of the Dawa Party, who shall serve as the leader of the party. Islamic Council leader Ammar al-Hakim, a fourth pole in the political equation between Abadi al-Sadr and al-Maliki, did not take a definite position, but it tends lately to the chest.

Indicators for rapprochement between Allawi and al-Maliki on one hand, in light of Allawi’s «Iraqi national» bloc›s involvement in the sit-Parliamentary, on the other hand he biases towards the Sadr and the adoption of his proposals.

The prominent in that equation are all of Muqtada al-Sadr and al-Abadi and more is evident that both of them are trying to take advantage of the other, but:Joe Aieden’s Visit and the travel of Moqtada al-Sadr to Iran proved that al-Abadi has the most support, also not allowing the security forces to collide with protesters to enter the Green Zone is a national decision to prevent any engagement which leads to an armed collision.

Al_Sadr strength Margins:We note the supporter’s withdrawal of Moqtada al-Sadr coinciding with a visit by Joe Biden, Obama›s deputy of Iraq, the United States has repeatedly said that it would move their forces stationed in the Green Zone if they exceeded demarcation lines.On another level, though, Sadr owning a militia armed «Mahdi Army» and currently, saraya Al_salam» Brigades of Peace» which has accused by criminal acts in the past, especially the nephew of Shiite al-Khoei reference was killed, but as soon as the United States demanded his name, he did not find sanctuary to him self to seek refuge except the Iranian mountain peaks, for four years.No matter how prestigious Moqtada al-Sadr can be, he cannot make real political progress without the endorsement of both Iran and the United States.

what happened, a political coup?It does not seem that the multi public group has crystallized fully to achieve a political coup, even though some of them succeeded in:The development of the political system is in danger because the political forces, represented by the parties in parliament have become directly under public pressure,Pointing fingers for the management of the Iraqi political game from Iran, through slogans raised against Tehran, and its strong man›s, Qassem Soleimani.

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Lebanon

Hezbollah is going through internal disputes:On the back of local elections in Britel, a Hezbollah stronghold, noticed the emergence of internal differences in the ranks of the party, which could lead to weakening of his influence in the south, especially in the Bekaa Valley, so under the withdrawal of the Amal movement and the support of the former secretary-general of Hezbollah Subhi al-Tufayli « Britel development list « against the rival Hezbollah, which came within the «list of development and fulfillment.»

the new roles Question:What uncertainty still exists about the extent of both Russia and Turkey involvement in the Lebanese file, on the back of support for Saad al-Hariri, and the wondering remains about the nature of this cooperation, it will come in the context of a solution or in the context of using the Lebanese scene as a platform to blow extra contradictions for the players interfaces.

Kurds

The incidence Is likely to be escalated between Turkey and the United States against the background of Russian-American coordination to strike Daesh in northern Syria, On the other hand, the question remains open,

Dose Daesh targeting both the PKK especially in Kells and the Gaziantep to decant in the interest of Turkey?

Does the Kurdish Iranian Freedom Party opposition from Iraq to ignite a Kurdish crisis in Iran?

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First: the Egyptian economy crisis:Egypt is currently living on unstable grounds, in financial terms; it is possible to consider here a number of indicators related to this situation:

Unemployment is growing steadily.

Economic conditions continue to worsen.

A large group of young people is angered by the lack of improvement in the economic landscape.

A growing activities of the Islamic state, where terrorist attacks have become bolder and more numerous.There›s nothing certain in Egypt now, but there is a feeling among citizens that they have become a much greater need for change.

Second, the US-Egyptian relations:The convulsion relationship between Cairo and Washington due to some issues related to the internal politics of the state, but the United States resumed military aid to Egypt, after realizing that the attempt to influence the internal politics of the country could make things even worse, without any results.

Third: dealing with recent protests:Security solution that internal Egyptian followed by during protests on April 25 with the protesters in front of the journalists syndicate and storming it to arrest journalists from union members, has exacerbated the size of discontent within several professional unions, which declared its solidarity with them, especially after the arrest of a number of members of such unions as well.

This turned into a general situation could push all the professional associations to move uniformly in the street against the government, where a large number of the union members starts accusing the state of trying to subjected security and control on them.

the opponents of the political system in Egypt Exploits the critical situation through the country by both reduced supporters of the policy of the state, with the rise of public protests, to impose their conditions and get the biggest gains and put more pressure on President al-Sisi to ensure these gains, before engaging in any political dialogue, it is possible that state calls, at the same time trying to disavow any relationship or partnership with the state in front of the Egyptian street in the current period.

Fourth, the Muslim Brotherhood:In the event of continuing internal political situation in an unstable state, and the preoccupation of the regime in the economic crisis and other issues faced by members of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt is trying to rearrange their situation, and to unite with the act of attempting the leadership of any demonstrations or protests against the regime.

The success of these attempts may lead to get the young radical leaders on the loyalty of the old guard in the group, which located in Turkey, to turn the group into the thought of much more radical thinking, and moving more towards violent acts, thereby ignoring the Muslim Brotherhood invitation in exile, or even Frente Mahmoud Ezzat at home to reconcile with the state.

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First: a look at the results of the runoff:The coverage of the Iranian media is repeated on both conservative and moderate, to the results of the recent Shura Council elections, and perhaps the clearer explanation for that is the lack of real political parties subsumed under it, or to nominate by their own name the candidates, but they are categorized according to their stated political opinions and attitudes, which may vary from time to time.

Second: The moderates are facing a lack of realistic hopes:

Third: the expected Ramifications:Without a doubt, the final election results will shed weigh on the presidential elections, after nearly a year, and from now until then, the best ratio achieved by the moderates in Parliament will ensure a passing through smoothly with no real obstacles, most of the economic and political programs for President Rouhani, most of the economic and political programs for President Rouhani, which obviously will take advantage of this period as best they can, for the influence development of his movement.

Fourth: the moderates, and voting on the missile capabilities program development:the parliamentary vote on the development of missile capabilities program Can be read from several aspects, but we can conclude the following points from this procedure:• The Draft resolution may be considered as an Iranian response to the quotient US escalation, in relation to the confiscation of two billion dollars of frozen Iranian assets for the benefit of September 11th families victims Court, in addition to the US administration direction to impose new sanctions on Iran after its missile experiments, which obviously they did not fall within the terms of nuclear deal.• it seems that the Conservatives have insisted on passing the resolution just before the first parliamentary session, after the all seats Quorum completion of the last round-off, therefore maybe there a fear from obstruction or delaying the project by the new parliamentarians.• If the moderates completely agree on the draft resolution - It is the most likely possible - this confirms that the spiritual-Rafsanjani stream does not intend to adopt a different policy’s from those which the Iranian regime drawled under it, in other words, it seems that the moderates do not want to appear that they are the opposite of the state model and order, but to continue on the same path without hesitation, in pursuit of them to not handing militants tool to attack their policy, where they wait for new gag to return to accuse the current moderate leaders of treason and identification with the enemy of the nation

However, in the end, what can be considered a significant success is the moderates achievement in comparison with previous election cycles, which refers to the public general desire trending towards greater economic and social openness. Women succeeded, for example, harvesting 17 seats, compared with 9 seats for the clergy, nearly doubled, while the clergy-dominated 27 seats in the recently ended election cycle, compared to nine for women, which were doubled.

In all cases, we can say that the moderates have not been able to harvest the result that they wanted exactly, where all their statements in the recent period, emphasized the full confidence that they will succeed in harvesting the required percentage of the parliament seats (40 seats) to achieve a majority, but most optimists in census the runoff votes did not exceed the 38 seats for the moderates and reformers.

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Reflection of the rivalry between extremists and moderates after the election:

There is a marked increase in Iranian

speech for the Egyptian Affairs, through the promotion of attitudes against President al-Sisi and Saudi

Arabia, and trying to emphasize that the relationship is going toward what he calls “the humiliation of media situation” for al-

sisi order in order to maintain the rule.

The relationship between the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood and Iran indicators are

showing more and more into the open, and there is a clear focus on readable

or television reports on Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh.

Promoting the idea of the Egyptian-Saudi tension:

Prince Mohammed bin Salman magnetizes Iranian Press:

Iran›s position from Abadi:

Clearly, a significant dissatisfaction

among extremists in Iran of the successes achieved by the reformists, Clearly, a significant

dissatisfaction among extremists in Iran of the successes achieved by the reformists, therefore they are trying

to underestimated and doubting them, and it is expected to increase this debate between extremists and

reformists with the oncoming US elections.

The steps taken by the Crown

Crown prince is a important focus of the Iranian interest

and there is no direct criticism to them, or direct questioning

to its usefulness, but the skepticism affects implementation

mechanisms more of the same plans, and certainly that there will

be Iranian informational follow-up for the subsequent

Saudi steps.Extremists are Promoting in

Iran for the existence of floundering that Abadi suffers,

and even push him for more confrontation in parliament or in the street, which Leads the administration of Iraq through

the militias more than the political management, and that this failure to abadi, the militant

wing considers it a failure of the US support of

abadi.

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1 The study published by the Maariv newspaper on Turkish-Israeli relations, which confirms that the fundamental change in the structure and function of the Turkish state, reflected on the relations between the two countries, which refers to the impossibility of returning these relations be restored, because of the re Turkey’s definition of itself as a bridge between East and West, not an organic part of the the West.

It seems that intensive visits by the Hamas delegation to Cairo, has a relationship to talk about «understanding» between Israel and Hamas and Egypt to confront the group «state of Sinai», for understanding between Hamas and Cairo on this topic is now certain, while Cairo took on its part the agreement with the Israelis.This is in continuing its role to talk about new regional alliances may be related to the subject of NATO internationalist.

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First, the Security scene:

1.The issue of terrorism:Continues to terrorist operations in Turkey would move it to a level beyond the military action, the military institution is responsible and decision maker in the project to resolve the Turkish security crisis. But it is possible to recognize that the military plan does not show any positive results.

2.Turkish position on the United States› support for the Kurds:Declaration of the United States for sending Special Forces into Syria would not be in the interest of Turkey, it is known that the biggest US ally in Syria is a Kurdish forces subsidiary of the Democratic Union Party, so it is not expected to witness the silence of Turkey for this move, and will not be a neutral Turkish military position, the US support to Kurds is the basis of the political crisis between Turkey and the United States, and it will not change since the Kurds goal is to create an independent state.

Second, the continuing deterioration of the Turkish-Russian relations:Russia›s announcement for the idea of selling %49 of the project, to build the nuclear plant in Turkey, is tantamount to pull one of the last cards that remained between the two countries. This coincides with an escalation of the Russian military action in northern Syria, which could conclude from it that things will go towards the military settlement in Syria.

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Firstly – Final Conclusions

It has been noted that the organization of the Islamic State raised up its attacks in the recent months, where they launched 891 attacks during the first quarter of this year 2016, and this attacks figure is the highest compared with the same period in 2015. This escalation came in response to the field loss of the many vital influence regions in Iraq and Syria, to prove that he did not turn “despite the aerial bombardment” to a stage of direct attack instead of the declining defense phase.

The Combating Terrorism Center Revealed (CTC) at the University of (West Point), quoting from US official reports that about $ 800 million in funds owned by the organization Daesh destroyed in air strikes executed by the international coalition led by the United States. Where the raids targeted regulation cabinets sites, which led to increase the fiscal deficit for the organization of about 90 percent. This means that the organization of the economy have been put in serious trouble, where the organization compensates losses by Commerce in real estate, agricultural and animal products available in the areas of influence, but the results are not clear yet.

The Intelligence information indicates that the number of recruits coming to the organization in Syria and Iraq have fallen from 2,000 fighters a month during the 2015 to 200 fighters a month since the beginning of 2016, according to what the Gen. (Peter. E. Gersten) vice president of operations and intelligence in the Air Force the US, which is expected to affect adversely and directly in the ability of the organization to launch a new combat attacks, but this prediction did not happen yet.

The US military command for defense activities and attacks Informatics (Saybrkom) seeks to cut the Internet for the organization “Daesh” in order to put it in «virtual isolation.»In that context, the Minister of Defense, «Ashton Carter,» said at the Armed Forces Committee in the Senate: «This is the first massive combat operation carried out by the unit Saybrkom for electronic warfare» against the organization in Iraq and Syria. This is a long-term plan, and the field results are indirect. But the Pentagon which aims to: - Cripple the command and control network affiliated with Daesh. - Weaken its potential to transfer and move money. - Striking its authoritarian abilities to population and control them. - Stagger the abroad recruiting tools.

There are multi possible reasons for these American reports publication during the current phase, including: - To prove that the coalition is about to reap the fruits of drying the financial resources to organize Daesh, through aerial bombardments. - Show the financial deficit of the organization, which requires austerity measures led to reduced salaries by half and sell assets in kind, and the rationing of fuel and electricity disbursement. - Anticipation for significant splits in the ranks of its fighters as a result of the deteriorating financial position. - Use these reports as a means of «psychological warfare» in order to hit the morale of the Popular babysitter and To makes it arise against the organization, especially in Mosul, and tenderness.

The final conclusion: the organization are likely to seek to use poison gas as a weapon «to deter and extermination» against the attackers or designated by their own media «Al_ahzab/parties» in relation to the (Battle of the Trench), known in Islamic history, particularly within the critical approaches that are threatening its presence in Mosul and tenderness.

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Third: Map of the military situation in Iraq and Syria: (field deployment of the organization - airstrikes areas - preparing air strikes - types of used aircrafts ) according to each map keys.

Second: Developments in Combating

Said common force tasks, which leads the coalition operations against al Daesh in a statement that the United States and its allies have carried out 23 air strike in one day against the organization sites within Iraq. Air strikes were concentrated near Fallujah, Mosul and Tal Afar and Qayyarah. Where it targeted three tactical units and destroyed one of the vehicles and combat locations, as well as other targets near the al-Baghdadi and Baiji, Hit, Kirkuk and Sinjar, Cossacks and the Sultan Abdullaha. And in another day, the alliance carried out 24 strikes against Daesh including 17 strikes in Iraq and seven hits in Syria. Where there have been four strikes in Iraq near Kirkuk, injuring two tactical units, excavator and three bridges used by the organization. In Syria, four strokes occurred near Mare` hit locations and combat vehicle of the organization, and destroyed a warehouse of weapons and ammunition in Azaz District north of Aleppo.

Wild renewed clashes between Iraqi forces and the popular crowd on the one hand and the organization of the Islamic state on the other hand, in several areas of Anbar killing and wounding dozens on both sides, and the battles have centered in and around Fallujah and Ramadi.

Dozens of al-Daesh fighters were killed in the bombing of the Turkish armed forces by artillery and rocket launchers and aircraft marched to the organization sites in Syria in response to Daesh mortar fire targeting Turkish artillery areas stationed on the border with Syria, according to military sources. Excluding the Turkish ground forces entry into Syria, or Allowing to specify a safe area, as demanded by Turkey for years. But the aerial international coalition and the Kurdish forces protection from land will continue to put pressure on the organization to withdraw from this adjacent pocket to Turkey which located between (Kobani and Aleppo) in the far north-west of Syria.

A table showing the US used weapons (bombers and drones) against Daesh sites in Iraq and Syria(Source: US Defense News May 2016 ,2)

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Policy towards the Gulf States

-He calls for the Gulf to play a bigger role in the war against Daash being rich nations. -He stressed his criticism of Qatar and accused her of supporting terrorist groups such as the Front victory and Daash -He criticized the Saudi intervention in Yemen

-The Gulf Arab ally essential to America and American targets in the region-SHe noted the importance of Saudi Arabia to help the US stabilize in northern Syria and take responsibility in the region for peace

First: the economic policy of sanctions under the microscope in Washington corridors:A discussion Revolves in the corridors of Washington about the effectiveness of economic sanctions and their impact on the United States› allies, especially those imposed on Russia and their economic impact on Europe, where losses were estimated as follows:

It is expected that this will result in: A large disturbance in relations with the United States. Impact on the future of free trade across the Atlantic. Affect the level of the guarantees provided by the United States to Europe.The current political scene indicates that the trend in Europe will support the idea of lifting sanctions on Russia, which put pressure on the Americans to reach the largest deal between Washington and Russia for a deal, but it would be to Washington instruments at multiple levels which will be able to put pressure on Russia.

Second: the US presidential election:

>>>>>>>>>

On the level of Republican Party: The idea behind the unity of Kasich and cruise against Trump, is blocking Trump›s election win the party, any obstruction for Trump on the required voters figure to win the nomination, and if they succeed it will be in front of Republican Party the opportunity to choose among the three or select a fourth person which is big surprise that may occur to the election. In front of this margin suspense imposed political tradition in this period, the basic pillars on which to build forecasts and analyzes remain, therefore, is likely to be the final scene between Trump and Clinton and in front of this equation seems Clinton is the strongest and the closest to victory.The very important idea is that most American institutions preparing for the advent of Clinton to White House. We cannot be certain that the results since the Republican party is now passing through a critical and very difficult phase of divisions and the absence of a unified leadership and strategy.

On the Democratic Party terms: Despite the progress of Hillary Clinton, and the big difference between the number of super voters 520 compared to 39 for Bernie Sanders, Sanders refuses to withdraw from the election and counting on the transfer of the competition for the election party in Philadelphia in July, there is no law forcing him to pull out now even though it was a huge difference. We believe that continuing competition and the challenge is only part from the Sanders goals to highlight light on what was forbidden to think of him in the United States, which is socialism, and therefore even if he lost in the elections, it is considered that the mere arrival at these stages is the real success of his movement, which seeks marketing to.

Italy has lost 1.25 billion euros since 2014

Decline in trade between Germany and Russia, 1.6 billion euros

The economic growth stopped in the EU by 0.3% Continuing this policy may cause the loss of

2.2 million jobs over the coming years.

Sanctions imposed on Iran had successfully dragged it to the table, but at the same time caused an unprecedented rift in relations with the Gulf states which would not hamper eventually from the Iranian nuclear development.

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Russia

Reproduction of power centers:Russia is entering a new phase of political instability as a result of President Putin›s lack of policy to strategy and clear objectives for policies that tangled Russia›s relations with the world.This policy is reflected heavily on the economic situation, which is no longer possible to hide, where the entrenched belief that President Putin carries out the administration of international relations based on the principle «Russian roulette» as prevails some of the elites and spheres of influence sense threatened by the lack of a compass and clear, and that their loyalty and support of the policies of Putin It does not serve the long-term interests.Restructuring of the internal security services and the process used to exclude strong personalities compete with Putin as a person and Defense Minister Sergei Chbgo allow the conclusion that:1. Putin has become aware of the shifts moods around him, and that he would repeat such preemptive steps on civil, economic and social level in order to ensure tighter control over the internal situation.2. Adjust the internal conditions tightly will require a retreat steps back from its external hostile policies toward the West and regional neighborhood.As a result we see that a conducive moment to hold a settlement with Russia may be looming on the horizon, especially in the Europeans desire to put an end to economic sanctions against Moscow.

Right wing sweeps Europe:The preliminary results and the possibility of the extreme right wins the presidential election in Austria is likely to increase the complexity of the European political scene, especially in the German interior, as a result of historical close ties between the two countries, would also give a strong boost to the party «Alternative for Germany» to hold on to national arguments and racism which is evidence that the success of Merkel in a scalable and contain the refugee crisis may not be enough because the roots of this crisis is deeper and more interconnected than it looks.