World Australia USA Germany France

Electricity & heat 13346.4 (42.1%) 198.8 (51.5%) 2086.6 (41.1%) 334.4 (44.3%) 46.3 (13.9%)

Manufacturing1 8014.4 (25.3%) 78.7 (20.4%) 778.4 (15.3%) 136.3 (18.0%) 74.8 (22.4%)

Road transport 5373.8 (16.9%) 75.7 (19.6%) 1413.0 (27.8%) 142.1 (18.8%) 117.8 (35.3%)

Other transport 1813.2 (5.7%) 14.1 (3.7%) 254.3 (5.0%) 5.0 (0.7%) 5.2 (1.6%)

Residential 1819.2 (5.7%) 8.4 (2.2%) 301.6 (5.9%) 92.8 (12.3%) 50.8 (15.2%)

Other 1367.4 (4.3%) 10.6 (2.7%) 240.3 (4.7%) 44.5 (5.9%) 39.0 (11.7%)

TOTAL 31734.3 386.3 5074.1 755.3 333.9

Table 1: Breakdown of industrial CO2 emissions by sector (2012 data). 1 Includes construction and mining.

Fig.1: The top two lines show projections for primary energy (PE) in the absence of any mitigation policies (black line) and with stringent mitigation policies applied (red line), referred to as REFERENCE and LEVEL-1 scenarios. The PE reduction is achieved through improvements in end-use efficiency. The segments below show the breakdown of PE sources in the LEVEL-1 scenario. For each carbon-free component, part of the growth is due to “spontaneous” changes that occur in the absence of policies (see Pielke et al., 2008), and part is policy driven. The remaining PE comes from fossil fuels, but a large fraction of the fossil-derived CO2 emissions is assumed to be captured using carbon-capture and storage methods (CCS).

YEAR 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

REF 332 406 470 533 599 666 733 801 872 922 972

Lev-1 332 374 374 379 372 353 380 400 413 434 455

redn 0 8% 20% 29% 38% 47% 48% 50% 53% 53% 53%

Table 2: Fossil-fuel derived PE, MiniCAM reference and level-1 scenarios, plus percentage reductions.