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World Rapeseed Exports Seen Falling on Smaller
CropsBy Rudy Ruitenberg - Aug 19, 2014
World exports of rapeseed are forecast to slide in theyear
through June 2015 on reduced crops in
Canada, Ukraineand Australia as well as a bigger harvest in
Europe, industry researcher Oil World
said.
Global shipments may fall to 13.6 million to 13.9 million metric
tons in 2014-15 from last years
record 15.2 million tons, Hamburg-based Oil World wrote in an
e-mailed report. That would still be
the second-highest export level on record, it said.
Rapeseed futures traded in Paris dropped 14 percent in the past
12 months amid an outlook for
rising production in Germany and France, with the November
delivery contract closing at 321.50
euros ($429.22) a ton yesterday. Rapeseed is the second-most
consumed oilseed after soybeans.
Most of the adjustment on the import side is likely to occur in
the European Union, where we now
consider it likely that imports will decline to a multi-year
low, Oil World said.
Farmers in the 28-member EU are forecast to harvest 23.5 million
tons of rapeseed, up by 2.3
million tons from a year earlier and 400,000 tons more than a
previous forecast, Oil World said.
That will cut imports by the bloc to 2.3 million tons from 3.8
million tons, according to the
researcher.
Oil World said it raised production estimates for France and the
Czech Republic, as well as the U.K.
and Hungary. French farmers harvested an estimated 5.53 million
tons of rapeseed this year from
4.37 million tons in 2013, the countrysAgriculture Ministrysaid
last week.
U.S. import needs are seen falling on a bigger domestic crop,
while crushers in Pakistan, the United
Arab Emiratesand probably Japanwill lift imports, the report
showed. China will be the major
swing factor to watch, it said.
Canadian Canola
Canadian exports of canola, a variety of rapeseed, are predicted
to decline in the year through July2015 from last years record,
dropping to 7.8 million tons from last years record 9.27 million
tons,
according to Oil World.
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Canadas unusually large canola exports and crushing in the
March-July period reduced the
countrys stockpiles more rapidly than expected to about 2.05
million tons, the researcher said.
Production prospects have deteriorated due to lack of moisture
in Alberta and Manitoba, while
growing conditions are favorable in Saskatchewan, Oil World
said. Crop development is lagging,
raising the risk of frost damage by the end of August or in
early September.
Oil World predicted the Canadian canola crop will fall to 14.7
million tons from about 18 million
tons.
To contact the reporter on this story: Rudy Ruitenberg in Paris
at [email protected]
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Claudia
Carpenter at [email protected]
John Deane, Nicholas Larkin
2014 BLOOMBERG L.P. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
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