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WORLD ENERGY PICTUREWORLD ENERGY PICTURE
World Energy ConsumptionWorld Energy Consumption
• Projections indicate continued growth Projections indicate continued growth in world energy use, despite world oil in world energy use, despite world oil prices that are 35 percent higher in prices that are 35 percent higher in 2025 than projected in 2006.2025 than projected in 2006.
• Energy resources are thought to be Energy resources are thought to be adequate to support the growth adequate to support the growth expected through 2030. expected through 2030.
• world economic growth continues to world economic growth continues to increase at an average annual rate of 3.8 increase at an average annual rate of 3.8 percent over the projection period, percent over the projection period, driving the robust increase in world driving the robust increase in world energy use. energy use.
• Total world consumption of marketed Total world consumption of marketed energy expands from 421 quadrillion energy expands from 421 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 2003 to 563 British thermal units (Btu) in 2003 to 563 quadrillion Btu in 2015 and then to 722 quadrillion Btu in 2015 and then to 722 quadrillion Btu in 2030, or a 71-percent quadrillion Btu in 2030, or a 71-percent increase over the 2003 to 2030 period. increase over the 2003 to 2030 period.
World Energy ConsumptionWorld Energy Consumption
OECD Vs Non OECDOECD Vs Non OECD
• Countries outside the Organization for Countries outside the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (non-Economic Cooperation and Development (non-OECD countries) account for three-fourths of OECD countries) account for three-fourths of the increase in world energy use. the increase in world energy use.
• Non-OECD energy use surpasses OECD energy Non-OECD energy use surpasses OECD energy use by 2015 (Figure 8), and in 2030 total use by 2015 (Figure 8), and in 2030 total energy demand in non-OECD countries energy demand in non-OECD countries exceeds that in the OECD countries by 34 exceeds that in the OECD countries by 34 percent. percent.
• Much of the growth in energy demand among Much of the growth in energy demand among the non-OECD economies occurs in non-OECD the non-OECD economies occurs in non-OECD Asia, which includes China and India. Demand in Asia, which includes China and India. Demand in the region nearly triples over the projection the region nearly triples over the projection period. period.
• Total primary energy consumption in the non-Total primary energy consumption in the non-OECD countries grows at an average annual rate OECD countries grows at an average annual rate of 3.0 percent between 2003 and 2030. In of 3.0 percent between 2003 and 2030. In contrast, for the OECD—with its more mature contrast, for the OECD—with its more mature energy-consuming nations—energy use grows energy-consuming nations—energy use grows at a much slower average rate of 1.0 percent at a much slower average rate of 1.0 percent per year over the same period. per year over the same period.
World Energy ConsumptionWorld Energy Consumption
World Energy by Type of World Energy by Type of FuelFuel• Fossil fuels continue to supply much of the Fossil fuels continue to supply much of the
increment in marketed energy use increment in marketed energy use worldwide throughout the projections. worldwide throughout the projections.
• Oil remains the dominant energy source Oil remains the dominant energy source over the projection period, but its share of over the projection period, but its share of total world energy consumption declines total world energy consumption declines from 38 percent in 2003 to 33 percent in from 38 percent in 2003 to 33 percent in 2030, largely in response to higher world 2030, largely in response to higher world oil prices in 2006, which dampen oil oil prices in 2006, which dampen oil demand in the mid-term. demand in the mid-term.
Oil ConsumptionOil Consumption
• Worldwide oil consumption rises from 80 million Worldwide oil consumption rises from 80 million barrels per day in 2003 to 98 million barrels per barrels per day in 2003 to 98 million barrels per day in 2015 and then to 118 million barrels per day in 2015 and then to 118 million barrels per day in 2030. day in 2030.
• Worldwide, transportation and industry are the Worldwide, transportation and industry are the major growth sectors for oil demand. On a global major growth sectors for oil demand. On a global basis, the transportation sector—where there are basis, the transportation sector—where there are currently no alternative fuels that compete widely currently no alternative fuels that compete widely with oil—accounts for about one-half of the total with oil—accounts for about one-half of the total projected increase in oil use between 2003 and projected increase in oil use between 2003 and 2030, with the industrial sector accounting for 2030, with the industrial sector accounting for another 39 percent of the incremental demand. another 39 percent of the incremental demand.
Survey of Energy Resources 2004Oil
North America
South America
Europe
AfricaMiddle East
Asia
Oceania
RESERVES 148 Gt
PRODUCTION
3.5 Gt/year CONSUMPTION
3.5 Gt/yearR/P RATIO41.2 years
34
11
42
15 91
19
9
Natural Gas ConsumptionNatural Gas Consumption
• The higher world oil price also affects natural gas The higher world oil price also affects natural gas markets. For many years, it has been projected that markets. For many years, it has been projected that natural gas would be the fastest growing energy natural gas would be the fastest growing energy source in the mid-term; however, higher natural gas source in the mid-term; however, higher natural gas prices in prices in 20062006 make coal more cost-competitive, make coal more cost-competitive, especially in the electric power sector, and as a result especially in the electric power sector, and as a result natural gas use and coal use increase at similar rates. natural gas use and coal use increase at similar rates.
• Natural gas demand rises by an average of 2.4 Natural gas demand rises by an average of 2.4 percent per year over the 2003 to 2030 period and percent per year over the 2003 to 2030 period and coal use by an average of 2.5 percent per year. Total coal use by an average of 2.5 percent per year. Total world natural gas consumption rises from 95 trillion world natural gas consumption rises from 95 trillion cubic feet in 2003 to 134 trillion cubic feet in 2015 cubic feet in 2003 to 134 trillion cubic feet in 2015 and 182 trillion cubic feet in 2030. and 182 trillion cubic feet in 2030.
Survey of Energy Resources 2004Natural Gas
North America
South America
Europe
AfricaMiddle East
Asia
Oceania
RESERVES 171 tcm
PRODUCTION2.6 tcm/year
CONSUMPTION 2.6 tcm/year
R/P RATIO59.8 years
70
9
57
56
>100 40
29
CoalCoal
• Coal use worldwide increases by 2.4 billion tons Coal use worldwide increases by 2.4 billion tons between 2003 and 2015 and by another 2.7 between 2003 and 2015 and by another 2.7 billion tons between 2015 and 2030.billion tons between 2015 and 2030.
• Nearly all regions of the world show some Nearly all regions of the world show some increase in coal use, except for Japan. In Japan, increase in coal use, except for Japan. In Japan, the electricity sector continues to be dominated the electricity sector continues to be dominated by natural gas and nuclear power generation. In by natural gas and nuclear power generation. In addition, with its population growing more addition, with its population growing more slowly, Japan’s electricity demand is likely to slowly, Japan’s electricity demand is likely to grow slowly, so that new coal-fired capacity grow slowly, so that new coal-fired capacity additions are unlikely to be needed. additions are unlikely to be needed.
CoalCoal
• With higher prices for oil and natural gas making coal With higher prices for oil and natural gas making coal more competitive, the projection for world coal use in more competitive, the projection for world coal use in 2025 is 16 percent higher (on a tonnage basis) than in 2025 is 16 percent higher (on a tonnage basis) than in 20052005 . .
• Consequently, coal’s share of total energy use rises Consequently, coal’s share of total energy use rises from 24 percent in 2003 to 27 percent in 2030, and from 24 percent in 2003 to 27 percent in 2030, and world coal consumption continues to exceed world world coal consumption continues to exceed world natural gas consumption throughout the projections. natural gas consumption throughout the projections.
• The largest increases in coal use worldwide are The largest increases in coal use worldwide are projected for China and India, where coal supplies are projected for China and India, where coal supplies are plentiful. Together, China and India account for 86 plentiful. Together, China and India account for 86 percent of the rise in non-OECD coal use and 70 percent percent of the rise in non-OECD coal use and 70 percent of the total world increase in coal demand over the of the total world increase in coal demand over the projection period. projection period.
Survey of Energy Resources 2004Coal
North America
South America
Europe
AfricaMiddle East
Asia
Oceania
RESERVES
909 Gt
PRODUCTION
4.8 Gt/year CONSUMPTION
4.8 Gt/year
50
255
20
258
247
0.4
79
Electricity ConsumptionElectricity Consumption• Net electricity consumption more than doubles between 2003 Net electricity consumption more than doubles between 2003
and 2030, from 14,781 billion kWh to 30,116 billion kWh. and 2030, from 14,781 billion kWh to 30,116 billion kWh.
• The strongest growth in net electricity consumption is The strongest growth in net electricity consumption is projected for the non-OECD economies, averaging 3.9 projected for the non-OECD economies, averaging 3.9 percent per year.percent per year.
• Robust economic growth in many of the non-OECD countries Robust economic growth in many of the non-OECD countries is expected to boost demand for electricity to run newly is expected to boost demand for electricity to run newly purchased home appliances for air conditioning, cooking, purchased home appliances for air conditioning, cooking, space and water heating, and refrigeration. space and water heating, and refrigeration.
• Although expanding use of home appliances and other Although expanding use of home appliances and other electronic devices also results in increased demand for electronic devices also results in increased demand for electricity in the OECD nations, their more mature electricity in the OECD nations, their more mature infrastructures and slower rates of population expansion infrastructures and slower rates of population expansion result in slower growth for total net electricity consumption, result in slower growth for total net electricity consumption, averaging 1.5 percent per year over the projection horizon. averaging 1.5 percent per year over the projection horizon.
Order of Order of Magnitude Magnitude of Energy of Energy ResourcesResources
SummarySummary
• No shortage of global energy No shortage of global energy resourcesresources
• Availability of fossil fuels:Availability of fossil fuels:– OilOil 40 years40 years– Natural GasNatural Gas 60 years60 years– CoalCoal 200 years200 years
• Uneven distribution of strategic Uneven distribution of strategic resources around the worldresources around the world
• Consumption areas do not all coincide Consumption areas do not all coincide with production areaswith production areas
SummarySummary
• Environmental issues/rules will play a Environmental issues/rules will play a strategic role in sustainable strategic role in sustainable developmentdevelopment
• Growing short-term focus of Growing short-term focus of liberalised energy marketsliberalised energy markets
• Substantial increase of non-hydro Substantial increase of non-hydro renewables , but total share only renewables , but total share only some 5% in 2030 (with wind and bio-some 5% in 2030 (with wind and bio-energy the leading players) energy the leading players)
SummarySummary
New strategic approaches and New strategic approaches and
international cooperation are international cooperation are
ESSENTIALESSENTIAL
butbut
a global political will must first exista global political will must first exist
