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© OECD/IEA 2016 © OECD/IEA 2016
Energy Policies of IEA Countries In-depth Review of Poland 2016
Ms Theresia Vogel, IDR team leader
SLT, 5 December 2016
World Energy Outlook 2016 and In-depth Review of
Poland’s energy policies 2016
Dr. Fatih Birol
IEA Executive Director Warsaw, 25 January 2017
www.iea.org © OECD/IEA 2016 © OECD/IEA 2016
© OECD/IEA 2016
Key points of orientation:
Middle East share in global oil production in 2016 at highest level for 40 years
Transformation in gas markets deepening with a 30% rise in LNG
Additions of renewable capacity in the power sector higher in 2015 than coal, gas, oil and nuclear combined
Energy sector in the spotlight as the Paris Agreement enters into force
Billions remain without basic energy services
There is no single story about the future of global energy; policies will determine where we go from here
The global energy context today
© OECD/IEA 2016
Change in total primary energy demand
Low-carbon fuels & technologies, mostly renewables, supply nearly half of the increase in energy demand to 2040
Low- carbon
Oil Gas Coal
A new ‘fuel’ in pole position
500
1 000
1 500
2 000 1990-2015 2015-2040
Mto
e
Low- carbon
Oil Gas Coal
Nuclear
Nuclear
Ren
ewab
les
Ren
ewab
les
Rest of world
European Union Latin
America
India
US
Africa
China
© OECD/IEA 2016
Net oil imports
The energy transition provides instruments to address traditional energy security concerns, while shifting attention to electricity supply
A suite of tools to address energy security
5
10
15
20
2014 2040
mb
/d
Switch to electric and natural gas vehicles
Switch to renewables
Efficiency improvements
Increase in oil production 2014-2040
Net oil imports
United States
2014 2040
European Union
2014 2040
China
2014 2040
India
Reduction in net oil imports due to:
© OECD/IEA 2016
-3
0
3
6 mb/d
The global car fleet doubles, but efficiency gains, biofuels & electric cars reduce oil
Change in oil demand by sector, 2015-2040
No peak yet in sight, but a slowdown in growth for oil demand
Power generation
Buildings Passenger cars
Maritime Freight Aviation Petrochemicals
demand for passenger cars;
growth elsewhere pushes total demand higher
© OECD/IEA 2016
A wave of LNG spurs a second natural gas revolution
Share of LNG in global long-distance gas trade
Contractual terms and pricing arrangements are all being tested as new LNG from Australia, the US & others collides into an already well-supplied market
2014 685 bcm
2040 1 150 bcm
2000 525 bcm
LNG 53%
Pipeline Pipeline LNG 42%
Pipeline
LNG 26%
© OECD/IEA 2016
Coal demand in key regions
The peak in Chinese demand is an inflexion point for coal; held back by concerns over air pollution & carbon emissions, global coal use is overtaken by gas in the 2030s
Coal: a rock in a hard place
500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000
Southeast Asia
European Union
India
United States
China
Mtce
2014
Decreasing demand
Change 2014-2040:
Increasing demand
© OECD/IEA 2016
Current pledges fall short of limiting the temperature increase to below 2 °C; higher ambition requires a near-term emissions peak & a profound decarbonisation
Energy-sector CO2 emissions
Still a long way from a pathway to energy sector decarbonisation
10
20
30
40
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Gt
2060 2080 2100 2050 2070 2090
Early peak in emissions
Net-zero by the end of the century
© OECD/IEA 2016
Energy security remains a major concern; potential vulnerabilities are growing, so too is the range of tools available to address them
New oil market dynamics & subdued upstream investment are ushering in a period of greater market volatility
A wave of LNG is the catalyst for a second natural gas revolution, with far-reaching implications for gas pricing & contracts
The next chapter in the rise of renewables requires policies to push their role in heat & transport & changes in power market design
The Paris Agreement is a framework; its impact on energy depends on how its goals are translated into real government policy actions
Global energy conclusions and outlook
© OECD/IEA 2016
A new energy strategy is on its way
Affordable energy and security are priorities
Nuclear power programme underway
New technologies in the coal-fired power fleet
Upgraded infrastructure networks and new interconnections
Strong growth in the renewable energy sector and energy efficiency is improving
Poland continues to make progress…
© OECD/IEA 2016
Local air quality a major problem in places
Future growth of renewables is uncertain
Need for more competition in energy markets
Uncertainty around timing of nuclear developments
More resources needed for energy research, development & innovation
But challenges remain
© OECD/IEA 2016
Coal is the backbone of Poland’s energy system: questions over long-term sustainability of the sector must be addressed
Energy supply 2015
81%
The role of coal: today & tomorrow
Power supply 2015
© OECD/IEA 2016
Support system was reformed to reduce costs, but the changes are likely to stall growth
The share of renewables in electricity quadrupled between 2005 and 2015
Where to now for renewables?
© OECD/IEA 2016
Adopted Polish Nuclear Power Programme in 2014: develop and deploy nuclear energy by the end of 2024
Public opinion generally favourable towards nuclear power, incl. near possible sites
Poland adopted a National Plan for Radioactive Waste and Nuclear Spent Fuel Management in October 2015
Government and nuclear industry are developing manpower
But…Decisions on technology and financing needed to allow industry make investment decisions
Nuclear power
© OECD/IEA 2016
Oil & gas imports are diversifying, but remain largely dependent on Russia: new oil pipelines planned, North-South Gas Corridor, LNG terminal expansion
Energy security and markets
Fuel imports in 2015
Natural gas 12 bcm
Oil 26 Mt
© OECD/IEA 2016
Particulate matter levels in 2015
Air pollution is the biggest risk to human health globally and many of its
causes – and cures – are in the energy sector
Air quality is an energy problem
European Environment Agency, 2016
© OECD/IEA 2016
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Tho
usa
nd
car
s
Others*
Germany
UnitedKingdom
France
Norway
Netherlands
Japan
China
United States
Global EV markets are growing rapidly and Poland has ambitions to follow
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2015 2020 2025
Exponential increase required
Poland’s EV growth target 2020/2025 Global EV fleet growth in 2010-2015
Norway: High incentives, 23% EV market share in 2015
+150%/yr
+80%/yr China: Strong regulation, EV fleet tripled in one year
Source: EV Outlook 2016, IEA Sources: EAFO, PZPM (Poland’s Electromobility Development Plan)
Electro-mobility Development Plan
© OECD/IEA 2016
Finalise the long-term energy strategy balancing Poland’s energy security, environmental and economic needs
Coal: stabilise the mining sector; close old polluting plants; build new supercritical ones; and replace household boilers
Introduce measures to secure the short- and long-term security of the electricity system.
Maintain efforts to diversify natural gas supply by taking advantage of global market dynamics
Finalise the timeline, technology choice and partners as well as finance mechanisms for the nuclear energy programme.
IDR key recommendations
© OECD/IEA 2016
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