WORLD ENERGY ASSESSENT MAIN FINDINGS

The World Energy Assessment

Established in 1998 by UNDP, DESA, WECWill serve as input to CSD-9 preparatory process,

CSD-9 and beyond (Rio +10)Two phases:

Editorial phase: Collaborative effort to provide scientific and technical analysis for the report and discussions – September 1998 - August 2000

Consultative and Outreach phase: Provide input to editorial phase and disseminate findings and encourage discussion and debate – April 1999 - April 2001

Funding: Austria, Norway, Finland, Sweden, the Energy Foundation and the United Nations Foundation

World Primary Energy Use, 1998

EJ EJ %Fossil Fuels 320 80

oil 142

natural gas 85

coal 93

Renewables 56 14

large hydro 9

traditional 38

“new” ren. 9

Nuclear 26 6

Total 402 100

H y d r o7 %

C o a l2 5 %

O il3 3 %

N a tu r a l G a s1 2 %

B io m a s s 2 2 %

N u c le a r1 %

Present Energy ConsumptionPrimary Energy Consumption

Industrialized Countries Developing Countries

Population: 1.34 billion% of fossil fuels: 81%

Energy = 6,701 x 106 toe

5.0 toe/capita

Population: 4.56 billion% of fossil fuels: 70%

Energy = 3,861 x 106 toe

0.85 toe/capita

Issues related to the present energy system

Energy approaches affect many important issues:

•Social

•Economic

•Environmental and Health

•Security

Investments in Energy Supply

• Investment in energy supply projected at $300-500 billion per year for the next 20 years, depending on path chosen

• Less than 10% of total overall investments

Issue: Mobilization of capital for energy supply investments

Oil Imports as Share of Export Earnings in Various Developing Countries, 1985-97

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%P

erce

nt

Pakist

an

Philli

ppin

es

Gha

na

Moz

amb.

..Hai

ti

Bangla

desh

Zambi

a

Ethopi

a

1985 1990 1995 1997Source: World Bank, 1999

• 2 billion people have no access to electricity and an additional 2 billion people have access to unreliable electricity.

• 2 billion people cook using traditional fuels.

Energy and Development

Energy and Women

Heavy burden on millions of women and children:

• Millions are spending hours a day carrying fuel and water

• Millions are being exposed to high levels of indoor air pollution leading to premature deaths

Example: The World Health Organization estimates that air pollution indoor causes 2.7–3.0 million premature deaths a year, or 5–6 percent of global mortality.

Environmental Degradation

Energy activities contribute to indoor air pollution, urban air pollution, acidification and global warming:

• 86% of anthropogenic emissions of sulphur dioxide

• Greenhouse gas emissions: 78% of carbon dioxide, 23% of methane

• A significant fraction of emissions of small particulate matter

• Significant fractions of many other environmental challenges

Energy Resources

• Conventional oil and gas could last at least 50-100 years.

• Total fossil fuel resources will last at least several hundreds of years

There will be no resource-constraint driven transformation of the world energy system for a long time to come

• Renewable energy flows are some 1000 times current global energy use

Oil imports in OECD, %

1996 2010 2020

North America

45 63 63

Europe 53 74 85

Pacific 90 96 96

Total OECD

56 72 76

Towards a more Sustainable Future

The magnitude of the change required is not small The challenge is to find a way forward that

addresses all the issues simultaneously A paradigm shift is needed

The linkages described lead to a demand for change of the present energy system development

Sustainable Energy:Energy that is produced and used in ways that simultaneously support human development over the long-term in all its social, economic, and environmental dimensions

Technical Options for a more Sustainable Future

•Improved Energy Efficiency - especially at the point of end-use in buildings, electric appliances, vehicles, and production processes.

•More Renewable Energy: such as biomass, wind, solar, hydro, and geothermal

•Advanced Energy Technologies:

•next generation fossil fuel technologies

•nuclear technologies, if the issues associated with nuclear can be resolved.

Outlook for More Efficient Use of Energy

• Cost effective over the next 20 years to reduce primary energy consumed per unit of energy services

• OECD Countries 25-35%• Developing Countries 30- >45%• Economies in transition >40%

• Greater gains in efficiency feasible with advanced energy technologies that offer multiple benefits

Outlook for wind energy

• Rapid global growth, 30% per year

• 14 GW total installed capacity in 1999

• Rapid cost decline

• “Baseload” wind power possible

• Huge potential, remote from markets

• Multi-GW wind power plants + storage + HV transmission

Potential “Excess” Electricity from Sugarcane in Developing Countries

1995 Cane

Production

(million tc)

2025 Cane

Prod. @ 2%/yr

(million tc)

2025 "Excess"

Electricity

(TWh/year)

1995 Utility

Elec. Prod.

(TWh)

2025 Cane

Elec./1995

Utility Elec.

Brazil 304 550 330 257 1.3

India 260 470 282 364 0.8

China 70 127 76 859 0.09

Carribean 48 87 52 42 1.2

Indonesia 31 57 34 58 0.6

Other Latin Am. 152 275 165 438 0.4

Others 233 422 253 912 0.3

Totals 1098 1988 1192 2930 0.4

Advanced Fossil Fuel Technology

• Syngas• Technology for manufacturing H2 from abundant and

secure energy sources (e.g. coal)• H2 competitive as energy carrier … need technologies that

– put high market value on H2 (e.g. fuel cells in transport)

– reduce H2 cost (e.g. H2 separation membrane reactors)• H2 must be produced centrally to minimize cost of CO2

disposal• Large, widely available, secure, and environmentally

acceptable storage capacity for CO2 - geological storage options promising (depleted oil/NG fields, deep beds of unminable coal, deep saline aquifers)

Power systems

• Optimal unit size declining, 30% of new capacity below 10MW

• Gas turbines, micro turbines, CHP, wind, solar, fuel cells, ….

• Distributed generation, virtual utilities• Value of generation close to consumption

higher than central station• Who looks after the “system”?

Energy for Rural Development

Provision of clean liquid or gaseous fuels for cooking and of electricity for lighting and other basic commodities at the household level

Provision of liquid fuels and electricity for mechanization of agriculture

Provision of electricity that is sufficiently low in cost that it could attract industrial activity to rural areas

Solutions to Rural Energy NeedsRural Eletrification

The “centralized” approach: eletrification from grids has reached 800 million people in 20 years. Still 1,800 million without access.

The “decentralized” approach:

Diesel engine generator sets

Small-scale hydro Photovoltaics

Wind Small-scale wind

Small-scale biopower using producer gas

Global electrification and population (millions)

Year 1970 1980 1990

World population 3,600 4,400 5,300

Rural population: With access*

to electricity Without access*

2,600 610 2,000

3,000 1,000 2,000

3,200 1,400 1,800

Percentage of rural access

23% 33% 44%

• Rough cost estimate, LPG from corn stalks:– Stand alone production: ~ $15/GJ– Once-thru co-production: ~ $6/GJ

(electricity sold for 5c/kWh)(Retail LPG price in rural China: ~ $8/GJ)

• LPG and electricity co-produced from available corn stalks (excluding those needed for soil conditioning and other non-energy uses) could meet current rural cooking fuel demand twice over and electric demand six times over.

Electricity and LPG from Corn Stalks in Jilin Province, China

Policies for Sustainable Energy

• Making markets work better, including mobilizing investments

• Focusing on the innovation chain• Reforming the power sector• Increasing capacity to support policy and

institution building, and transfer of technology

An energy future compatible with sustainable development will not happen by itself, thus policy change is required, including:

Making markets work better

Setting the right framework conditions (including continued market reform and appropriate regulatory measures and policies) to encourage competitiveness in energy markets and protect public benefits

Setting accurate price signals, including removal of subsidies to fossil fuel energy and some internalization of externalities (Subsidies of $100 - 200 billion/year to conventional energy.)

Supporting technological leadership and capacity building in developing countries

Encouraging greater international cooperation

The Innovation Chain

• Research and Development

• Demonstration projects

• Early deployment (cost buy-down)

• Widespread dissemination

Experience curves for photovoltaics, windmills, and gas turbines

20000

10000

5000

1000

100

10 100 1000 10000 100000

1982

1987

1963

1980

Windmills (USA)(learning rate ~ 20%)

RD&D phase

Commercializationphase

USAJapan

Cumulative MW installed

19811983

500

Photovoltaics(learning rate ~ 20%)

Gas turbines (USA)(learning rate ~ 20%, ~10%)

US

(199

0)$

/kW

1995

1992

200

2000

Good ideas for policy implementation are gaining ground around the world

Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS)

Subsidies with “sunset” clauses

Concessions

Retail financing

Clean Development Mechanism

Policy options: cost-buy-down and dissemination

Some electricity policy issues

• Grid access, IPPs– Distributed generation – Biomass power– Wind energy concessions– Small scale hydro

• End-use efficiency• Net metering• Competition and system responsibility• Rural electrification

Developing countries

• Capacity building • Policy support and institution building • Good governance• Investment-friendly environments, socially and

environmentally responsible• Technological leap-frogging• Consumer credits, micro-finance• Education and training

WORLD ENERGY ASSESSENT MAIN FINDINGS