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  • World Cup 2010 South Africa

    Booklet World Championship Analysis of participating teams Overview of the stadiums Model calculations Who is going to be World Champion?

    Saphira by Clipdealer

    June 2010

  • 2 June 2010

    Content

    World Cup 2010 South Africa

    Introduction 3

    Stadiums 4

    Qualification 6

    Participants

    Group A: South Africa, Mexico, Uruguay, France 8

    Group B: Argentina, Nigeria, South Korea, Greece 10

    Group C: England, USA, Algeria, Slovenia 12

    Group D: Germany, Australia, Serbia, Ghana 14

    Group E: Netherlands, Denmark, Japan, Cameroon 16

    Group F: Italy, Paraguay, New Zealand, Slowakia 18

    Group G: Brazil, North Korea, Ivory Coast, Portugal 20

    Group H: Spain, Switzerland, Honduras, Chile 22

    Overview of participants 24

    Quotes 25

    Match schedule 26

    World Cup Quiz 28

    Model calculation 30

    Model results 32

    Our Team 36

  • 3June 2010

    xx

    The object of desire

    Source: Udo Nowak/PIXELIO

    At last! The time has come! While some of us are eagerly awaiting the big event, gluing stickers into our panini collection albums with shaking hands, pl-anning our holidays in line with the game schedules and ensuring a sufficient beer supply, others are se-riously questioning what all the fuss is about - grown men chasing a pigs bladder around a field. With this publication we hope to communicate our childlike ex-citement to appease those unfortunate few and to in-crease the level of anticipation for the true believers.

    This time the show has moved to Africa for the first time ever. To be more precise it has moved to South Africa, which geographically lies in the south of Af-rica. Variability in altitude between the playing are-nas and the fact that the tournament will be held in the winter in the southern hemisphere are just a few details that have to be borne in mind. We want to give an overview of the stadiums with all the required valuable information that could make a difference. Next we analyze the teams, their paths during qua-lification and add some subjective comments of how we judge their strengths and weaknesses. Stunningly intelligent football quotes and a quiz for expert en-thusiasts rounds off the publication. As the absolute highlight we present a highly scientific analytical model of the tournament to identify who could end up with the grand prize and, more importantly, to calculate the optimal return flight dates for individual teams. As readers of our last European Champion-ship 2008 project may recall, we had some partial success with Spain reaching the finals exactly as pro-jected. Spurred by this result we have adjusted and improved our model and aim to surpass the previous result. But more on that inside...

    On this note we hope that our readers will enjoy this document and, of course, the World Championship 2010. May the best team win.

    Your Raiffeisen RESEARCH Team

    World Cup 2010 South Africa

    The player's device

    Source: Kunstzirkus, Stephanie Hofschlaeger/PIXELIO

    Destination: Johannesburg

    Source: Bernard Shane Diay

    Introduction

  • 4 June 2010

    Stadiums

    Polokwane,Peter-Mokaba-stadiumcapacity: 45,000sea level: 1230min June: max. temp.: 20Cmin. temp.: 5C rainy days: 1

    Nelspruit,Mbombela stadiumcapacity: 43,500sea level: 671min June: max. temp.: 23Cmin. temp.: 6C rainy days: 2

    Durban,Moses-Mabhida-stadiumcapacity: 70,000sea level: 15min June: max. temp.: 23Cmin. temp.: 11C rainy days: 5

    N A M I B I A

    Johannes-burg

    Rustenburg

    Polokwane

    Nelspruit

    Pretoria

    Port Elizabeth

    BloemfonteinDurban

    250 km

    Cape Town

    B O T S WA N A

    S I M B A B W E

    MO

    SA

    MB

    IK

    S WA S I -L A N D

    L E S O T H O

    Cape Town, Green-Point-stadiumcapacity: 69,000sea level: 42min June: max. temp.: 18Cmin. temp.: 7C rainy days: 13

    Nelson Mandela Bay/Port Elizabeth,Nelson-Mandela-Bay-stadiumcapacity: 46,000sea level: 50min June: max. Temp.: 20Cmin. Temp.: 9C rainy days: 8

    Mangaung/Bloemfontein,Free-State-stadiumcapacity: 45,000sea level: 1351min June: max. Temp.: 17Cmin. Temp.: -2C rainy days: 3

    RustenburgRoyal-Bafokeng-stadiumcapacity: 44,500sea level: 1153min June: max. Temp.: 19Cmin. Temp.: 2C rainy days: 1

    Johannesburg, Soccer Citycapacity: 94,700sea level: 1704mEllis-Park-stadiumCapacity: 62.500sea level:1753min June: max. Temp.: 17Cmin. Temp.: 4C rainy days: 1

    Tshwane/PretoriaLoftus Versfeld Stadiumcapacity: 51,700sea level: 1351min June: max. Temp.: 20Cmin. temp.: 5C rainy days: 1

  • 5June 2010

    Winner last 16 1 - winner last 16 2Final: 11 July 2010, 20:30: Winner semi-final 1 - Winner semi-final 2

    Johannesburg, Ellis-Park-stadiumGroup plays:Group B - 12 June 2010, 16:00: Argentina - NigeriaGroup G - 15 June 2010, 20:30: Brazil - North KoreaGroup C - 18 June 2010, 16:00: Slovenia - USAGroup H - 21 June 2010, 20:30: Spain - HondurasGroup F - 24 June 2010, 16:00: Slovakia - ItalyLast 16: 28 June 2010, 20:30: 1st group G - 2nd group HQuarter final: 3 July 2010, 20:30: Winner last 16 7- winner last 16 8

    Tshwane/Pretoria, Loftus-Versfeld-stadiumGroup plays:Group D - 13 June 2010, 16:00: Serbia - Ghana Group A - 16 June 2010, 20:30: South Africa - UruguayGroup E - 19 June 2010, 20:30: Cameroon - DenmarkGroup C - 23 June 2010, 16:00: USA - AlgeriaGroup H - 25 June 2010, 20:30: Chile - SpainLast 16: 29 June 2010, 16:00: 1st group F 2nd group E

    Polokwane, Peter-Mokaba-stadiumGroup plays: Group C - 13 June 2010, 13:30: Algeria - Slovenia Group A - 17 June 2010, 20:30: France - MexicoGroup B - 22 June 2010, 20:30: Greece - ArgentinaGroup F - 24 June 2010, 16:00: Paraguay - New Zealand

    Nelspruit, Mbombela stadiumGroup plays:Group H - 16 June 2010, 13:30: Honduras - ChileGroup F - 20 June 2010, 16:00: Italy - New ZealandGroup D - 23 June 2010, 20:30: Australia - SerbiaGroup C - 25 June 2010, 16:00: North Korea - Ivory coast

    Durban, Moses-Mabhida-stadiumGroup plays: Group D - 13 June 2010, 20:30: Germany - AustraliaGroup H - 16 June 2010, 16:00: Spain - SwitzerlandGroup E - 19 June 2010, 13:30: Netherlands - JapanGroup B - 22 June 2010, 20:30: Nigeria - South KoreaGroup G - 25 June 2010, 16:00: Brazil - PortugalLast 16: 28 June 2010, 16:00: 1st group E - 2nd group FSemi-final: 7 July 2010, 20:30: Winner quarter final 3 - winner quarter final 4

    Stadiums

    Cape Town, Green-Point-stadiumGroup plays:Group A - 11 June 2010, 20:30: Uruguay - FranceGroup F - 14 June 2010, 20:30: Italy - ParaguayGroup C - 18 June 2010, 20:30: England - AlgeriaGroup G - 21 June 2010, 13:30: Portugal - North KoreaGroup E - 24 June 2010, 20:30: Cameroon - Netherlands Last 16: 29 June 2010, 20:30: 1st Group H - 2nd Group GQuarter final: 3 July 2010, 16:00: Winner last 16 3 - winner last 16 4Semi-final: 6 July 2010, 20:30: Winner quarter final 1 - winner quarter final 2

    Nelson Mandela Bay/Port Eliz-abeth, Nelson-Mandela-Bay-stadiumGroup plays:Group B - 12 June 2010, 13:30: South Korea - GreeceGroup G - 15 June 2010, 16:00: Ivory coast - PortugalGroup D - 18 June 2010, 13:30: Germany - SerbiaGroup H - 21 June 2010, 16:00: Chile - SwitzerlandGroup C - 23 June 2010, 16:00: Slovenia - EnglandLast 16: 26 June 2010, 16:00: 1st group A - 2nd group B Quarter final: 2nd July 2010, 16:00: Winner last 16 5 - winner last 16 6 3rd rank play, 10 July 2010, 20:30: Loser semi-final 1 - loser semi-final 2

    Mangaung/Bloemfontein, Free-State-stadiumGroup plays:Group E - 14 June 2010, 16:00: Japan - CameroonGroup B - 17 June 2010, 16:00: Greece - NigeriaGroup F - 20 June 2010, 13:30: Slovakia - ParaguayGroup A - 22 June 2010, 16:00: France - South AfricaGroup H - 25 June 2010, 20:30: Switzerland - HondurasLast 16: 27 June 2010, 16:00: 1st group D 2nd group C

    Rustenburg, Royal-Bafokeng-stadiumGroup plays: Group C - 12 June 2010, 20:30: England - USAGroup F - 15 June 2010, 13:30: New Zealand - SlovakiaGroup D - 19 June 2010, 16:00: Ghana - AustraliaGroup A - 22 June 2010, 16:00: Mexico - UruguayGroup E - 24 June 2010, 20:30: Denmark - JapanLast 1626 June 2010, 20:30: 1st group C - 2nd group D

    Johannesburg, Soccer CityGroup playsGroup A - 11stJune 2010, 16:00: South Africa - MexicoGroup E - 14. June 2010, 13:30: Netherlands - DenmarkGroup B - 17. June 2010, 13:30: Argentina - South KoreaGroup G - 20. June 2010, 20:30: Brazil - Ivory coastGroup D - 23. June 2010, 20:30: Ghana - GermanyLast 16: 27 June 2010, 20:30: 1st group B - 2nd group A Quarter final: 2 July 2010, 20:30:

    Source: Wikipedia

    Source: Charles Heiman

    Source: Wikimedia Commons/ Mad Simpson panoramio.com

    Source: flickr Shine 2010 - 2010 World Cup

    Source: flickr Shine 2010 - 2010 World Cup

    Source: flickr Shine 2010 - 2010 World Cup

    Source: ngrund/panoramio.com

    Source: Wikipedia

    Source: Bernard Shane Diaz

    Source: Wikimedia Commons/Author=Floccus

  • 6 June 2010

    Qualification

    Group 1 Matches W T L Goals Points

    1 Denmark 10 6 3 1 16:5 21

    2 Portugal 10 5 4 1 17:5 19

    3 Sweden 10 5 3 2 13:5 18

    4 Hungary 10 5 1 4 10:8 16

    5 Albania 10 1 4 5 6:13 7

    6 Malta 10 0 1 9 0:26 1

    Group 2 Matches W T L Goals Points

    1 Switzerland 10 6 3 1 18:8 21

    2 Greece 10 6 2 2 20:10 20

    3 Latvia 10 5 2 3 18:15 17

    4 Israel 10 4 4 2 20:10 16

    5 Luxemburg 10 1 2 7 4:25 5

    6 Moldavia 10 0 3 7 6:18 3

    Group 3 Matches W T L Goals Points

    1 Slovakia 10 7 1 2 22:10 22

    2 Slovenia 10 6 2 2 18:4 20

    3 Czech Republic 10 4 4 2 17:6 16

    4 Northern Ireland 10 4 3 3 13:9 15

    5 Poland 10 3 2 5 19:14 11

    6 San Marino 10 0 0 10 1:47 0

    Group 4 Matches W T L Goals Points

    1 Germany 10 8 2 0 26:5 26

    2 Russia 10 7 1 2 19:6 22

    3 Finnland 10 5 3 2 14:14 18

    4 Wales 10 4 0 6 9:12 12

    5 Azerbaijan 10 1 2 7 4:14 5

    6 Liechtenstein 10 0 2 8 2:23 2

    Group 5 Matches W T L Goals Points

    1 Spain 10 10 0 0 28:5 30

    2 Bosnia and H. 10 6 1 3 25:13 19

    3 Turkey 10 4 3 3 13:10 15

    4 Belgium 10 3 1 6 13:20 10

    5 Estonia 10 2 2 6 9:24 8

    6 Armenia 10 1 1 8 6:22 4

    Group 6 Matches W T L Goals Points

    1 England 10 9 0 1 34:6 27

    2 Ukraine 10 6 3 1 21:6 21

    3 Croatia 10 6 2 2 19:13 20

    4 Belarus 10 4 1 5 19:14 13

    5 Kazakhstan 10 2 0 8 11:29 6

    6 Andorra 10 0 0 10 3:39 0

    Group 7 Matches W T L Goals Points

    1 Serbia 10 7 1 2 22:8 22

    2 France 10 6 3 1 18:9 21

    3 Austria 10 4 2 4 14:15 14

    4 Lithuania 10 4 0 6 10:11 12

    5 Rumania 10 3 3 4 12:18 12

    6 Faroese 10 1 1 8 5:20 4

    Group 8 Matches W T L Goals Points

    1 Italy 10 7 3 0 18:7 24

    2 Ireland 10 4 6 0 12:8 18

    3 Bulgaria 10 3 5 2 17:13 14

    4 Cyprus 10 2 3 5 14:16 9

    5 Montenegro 10 1 6 3 9:14 9

    6 Georgia 10 0 3 7 7:19 3

    Play-Offs (top 8 runners up)

    Greece Ukraine 0:0

    Ukraine Greece 0:1

    Portugal Bosnia a.H. 1:0

    Bosnia a.H. Portugal 0:1

    Ireland France 0:1

    France Ireland 1:1

    Russia Slovenia 2:1

    Slovenia Russia 1:0

    Group 9 Matches W T L Goals Points

    1 Netherlands 8 8 0 0 17:2 24

    2 Norway 8 2 4 2 9:7 10

    3 Scotland 8 3 1 4 6:11 10

    4 Mazedonia 8 2 1 5 5:11 7

    5 Iceland 8 1 2 5 7:13 5

    European zone/UEFA

  • 7June 2010

    Qualification

    Matches W T L Goals Points

    1 Brazil 18 9 7 2 33:11 34

    2 Chile 18 10 3 5 32:22 33

    3 Paraguay 18 10 3 5 24:16 33

    4 Argentina 18 8 4 6 23:20 28

    5 Uruguay 18 6 6 6 28:20 24

    6 Ecuador 18 6 5 7 22:26 23

    7 Colombia 18 6 5 7 14:18 23

    8 Venezuela 18 6 4 8 23:29 22

    9 Bolivia 18 4 3 11 22:36 15

    10 Peru 18 3 4 11 11:34 13

    Group 1 Matches W T L Goals Points

    1 Australia 8 6 2 0 12:1 20

    2 Japan 8 4 3 1 11:6 15

    3 Bahrain 8 3 1 4 6:8 10

    4 Katar 8 1 3 4 5:14 6

    5 Usbekistan 8 1 1 6 5:10 4

    Group 1 Matches W T L Goals Points

    1 Cameroon 6 4 1 1 9:2 13

    2 Gabun 6 3 0 3 9:7 9

    3 Togo 6 2 2 2 3:7 8

    4 Marocco 6 0 3 3 3:8 3

    Group 2 Matches W T L Goals Points

    1 Nigeria 6 3 3 0 9:4 12

    2 Tunesia 6 3 2 1 7:4 11

    3 Mozambique 6 2 1 3 3:5 7

    4 Kenya 6 1 0 5 5:11 3

    Group 3 Matches W T L Goals Points

    1 Algeria 6 4 1 1 9:4 13

    2 Egypt 6 4 1 1 9:4 13

    3 Sambia 6 1 2 3 2:5 5

    4 Rwanda 6 0 2 4 1:8 2

    Group 4 Matches W T L Goals Points

    1 Ghana 6 4 1 1 9:3 13

    2 Benin 6 3 1 2 6:6 10

    3 Mali 6 2 3 1 8:7 9

    4 Sudan 6 0 1 5 2:9 1

    Group 5 Spiele S U N Tore Punkte

    1 Ivory coast 6 5 1 0 19:4 16

    2 Burkina Faso 6 4 0 2 10:11 12

    3 Malawi 6 1 1 4 4:11 4

    4 Guinea 6 1 0 5 7:14 3

    Matches W T L Goals Points

    1 New Zealand 6 5 0 1 14:5 15

    2 New Caledonia 6 2 2 2 12:10 8

    3 Fidji 6 2 1 3 8:11 7

    4 Vanuatu 6 1 1 4 5:13 4

    Matches W T L Goals Points

    1 USA 10 6 2 2 19:13 20

    2 Mexico 10 6 1 3 16:10 19

    3 Honduras 10 5 1 4 17:11 16

    4 Costa Rica 10 5 1 4 15:15 16

    5 El Salvador 10 2 2 6 9:15 8

    6 Trinidad a. Tobago 10 1 3 6 10:22 6

    Group 2 Matches W T L Goals Points

    1 South Korea 8 4 4 0 12:4 16

    2 North Korea 8 3 3 2 7:5 12

    3 Saudi Arabia 8 3 3 2 8:8 12

    4 Iran 8 2 5 1 8:7 11

    5 UAE 8 0 1 7 6:17 1

    Play-Offs (of thired ranked teams)

    Bahrain Saudi Arabia 0:0

    Saudi Arabia Bahrain 2:2

    Entscheidungsspiel

    Algeria Egypt 1:0

    RelegationBahrain New Zealand 0:0

    New Zealand Bahrain 1:0Costa Rica Uruguay 0:1Uruguay Costa Rica 1:1

    South American zone/CONMEBOL

    North-/Central American and caribbean zone/CONCACAF*

    Asian zone/AFC*

    African zone/CAF*

    Ozeanic zone/OFC*

    * last round only * last round only

  • 8 June 2010

    0.2% 0.9%3.6%

    16.1%

    36.7%

    63.3%

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    70%

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    South Africa

    Source: Raiffeisen RESEARCH

    Source: Raiffeisen RESEARCH

    - = lowest third; + = highest third; o = middle third of participants; TOP = best participant; * RZB model calculation; ** highest odds available1-5: Assessment according to grades (1 = very good to 5 = insufficient)

    - = lowest third; + = highest third; o = middle third of participants; TOP = best participant; * RZB model calculation; ** highest odds available1-5: Assessment according to grades (1 = very good to 5 = insufficient)

    Marques, defender for Barcelona, surely a good thing. Mixed performance so far; they did win the last two games against the USA, and they beat the European Champions Spain, remember? What does that tell us? Not much really, it sounds kind of good though, doesnt it?

    Home advantage, i.e. 12 players , unfortunately without a star if you dont count their coach, Carlos Alberto Parreira, world champion with Brazil in 1994. Since he took over control there has only been one minor problem spoiling his party the results were not too good. Could prove difficult with such a track record.

    Group A

    1.8% 3.3%9.0%

    61.9%

    38.1%35.0%

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    70%

    Wor

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    Mexico AnalysisTournament strength +FIFA ranking oWorld Cup qualification oTeam market value oFan factor oProbability for World Cup title* 1.8%Betting odds** 1:101Coach 3Goalkeeper 2Defense 3Midfield 2Offense 3

    Analysis

    Tournament strength -FIFA ranking -World Cup qualification oTeam market value -Fan factor TOPProbability for World Cup title* 0.2%Betting odds** 1:151Coach 1Goalkeeper 4Defense 4Midfield 3Offense 3

    participants

  • 9June 2010

    Source: Raiffeisen RESEARCH

    Source: Raiffeisen RESEARCH

    - = lowest third; + = highest third; o = middle third of participants; TOP = best participant; * RZB model calculation; ** highest odds available1-5: Assessment according to grades (1 = very good to 5 = insufficient)

    - = lowest third; + = highest third; o = middle third of participants; TOP = best participant; * RZB model calculation; ** highest odds available1-5: Assessment according to grades (1 = ve...

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