World Cotton Market In the Next Season

Önümüzdeki SezondaDünya Pamuk Pazarı

Cotton Council International and Cotton Incorporated

World Cotton PricesDünya Pamuk Fiyatları

cents/lb

Sources: Cotlook, Reuters

cents/lb

Sources: Cotlook, Reuters

World Cotton PricesDünya Pamuk Fiyatları

• Lower Acreage

Sources: NCC Planting Intentions, USDA March Prospective Plantings, USDA NASS

million acres

Factors Contributing to Recent MovementYakın Zamandaki Harekette Pay Sahibi Faktörler

• Lower Acreagemillion acres

Cotton/Corn

new crop futures: cotton/corn ratio

Sources: NCC Planting Intentions, USDA March Prospective Plantings, USDA NASS, Reuters (crop price ratios are Jan-Apr averages of new crop futures (Dec 2013 for cotton & corn, Nov 2013 for soybeans)

Factors Contributing to Recent MovementYakın Zamandaki Harekette Pay Sahibi Faktörler

• Lower Acreage• Higher Exports

thousand tons of U.S. cotton shipped, rolling 4-week average

Source: USDA

Factors Contributing to Recent MovementYakın Zamandaki Harekette Pay Sahibi Faktörler

• Lower Acreage• Higher Exports

Source: USDA

USDA export forecasts in million tons

Factors Contributing to Recent MovementYakın Zamandaki Harekette Pay Sahibi Faktörler

• Lower Acreage• Higher Exports , lower stocks for exporters

Source: USDA

USDA ending stocks forecasts in million tons

Factors Contributing to Recent MovementYakın Zamandaki Harekette Pay Sahibi Faktörler

• Lower Acreage• Higher Exports, more stocks in China

Source: USDA

USDA ending stocks forecasts in million tons

Factors Contributing to Recent MovementYakın Zamandaki Harekette Pay Sahibi Faktörler

• Lower Acreage• Higher Exports• Chinese policy

Factors Contributing to Recent MovementYakın Zamandaki Harekette Pay Sahibi Faktörler

Price OutlookFiyatlara Bakış

Record stocks, but stocks withheld from market

- Demand-related questions

- 2013/14 acreage & Production- Chinese cotton policy

Source: USDA

Production Surplus Expected in 2013/142013/14’te Üretim Fazlalığı Bekleniyor

Early USDA estimates

Source: USDA

million tons

Source: USDA

million tons

Stocks Forecast to Reach another RecordStokların Yeni bir Rekor Kırması Bekleniyor

15.3

19.319.0

Source: USDA

Stocks Forecast to Further Concentrate in ChinaStokların Çin’de Daha da Yoğunlaşması Bekleniyor

Source: USDASource: USDA

15.3

19.319.0

million tons

Buy and withhold from the market

How to supply mills?Releases from reserves?

Imports?

million tons

6.5

Chinese ReservesÇin Rezervleri

Chinese Reserves

Chinese GrowersÇinli Yetiştiriciler

13%VAT

20,400 RMB/ton150 cents/lb

17,750 RMB/ton128 cents/lb

Chinese Spinning Mills

19,000 RMB/ton (137 cents/lb)

−Slow delivery

−Lower grades offered when higher grades wanted

−Higher volumes and higher grades promised for release

Chinese ReservesÇin Rezervleri

Chinese Mill-UseÇin İşletme Kullanımı

Source: USDA

million tons

Chinese Yarn ImportsÇin İplik İthalatları

thousand tonsRecord volumes

in recent months

40% from Pakistan

20% from India

Source: Cotlook

Chinese Spinning Mills19,000 RMB/ton

(137 cents/lb)

Tariff-Rate Quota (TRQ) allowed as part of WTO agreement894,000 tons (4.1 million bales) with 1% duty

Sliding-Scale Quota, duty varies with price (5-40%)Discretionary volume, 3:1 ratio

Outside of quota, 40% dutyUntried until this year

13%VAT

Imports

Chinese ReservesÇin Rezervleri

cents/lb

Source: Cotlook

Outside quota option becomes viable around 85 cents/lb

Higher prices could be expected to trigger releases

Chinese & World Cotton PricesÇin vey Dünya Pamuk Fiyatları

World Consumption less ChinaÇin Hariç Dünya Tüketimi

Source: USDA

million tons

70.772.5

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Cotton Council International and Cotton Incorporated