World Conservation CongressWorld Conservation Congress

Beyond Zoonoses: One World - One Beyond Zoonoses: One World - One Health, Health,

The Threat of Emerging Diseases The Threat of Emerging Diseases to Human Security and to Human Security and

Conservation, and the Implications Conservation, and the Implications for Public Policyfor Public Policy

November 19, 2004November 19, 2004

Bangkok, ThailandBangkok, Thailand

Security and Social Stability Security and Social Stability Impacts of Diseases Across Impacts of Diseases Across

Species Species

Bryan McDonald, Assistant Bryan McDonald, Assistant DirectorDirector

Center for Unconventional Security Center for Unconventional Security AffairsAffairs

University of California, IrvineUniversity of California, Irvine

www.cusa.uci.eduwww.cusa.uci.edu

Presentation OutlinePresentation Outline

1. Changing Security Landscape1. Changing Security Landscape

2. Overview of Environmental Security 2. Overview of Environmental Security ResearchResearch

3. IUCN’s Activities on Environmental 3. IUCN’s Activities on Environmental SecuritySecurity

4. One World, One Health Project4. One World, One Health Project

1. Changing Security 1. Changing Security LandscapeLandscape

Conventional SecurityConventional Security

For much of the 20For much of the 20thth Century, the Century, the study of security was dominated by study of security was dominated by two concerns:two concerns:

Great power warGreat power war Military use of nuclear weaponsMilitary use of nuclear weapons

Ironically, perhaps, the field focused Ironically, perhaps, the field focused on very rare events and largely on very rare events and largely ignored more common onesignored more common ones

A Change in PerspectiveA Change in Perspective

The field of security studies began to The field of security studies began to change in the late 20change in the late 20thth Century due to three Century due to three factors:factors: A sense that great power war and the military A sense that great power war and the military

use of nuclear weapons, while potentially use of nuclear weapons, while potentially devastating, were low probability eventsdevastating, were low probability events

Mounting evidence that the security of people Mounting evidence that the security of people and states around the world was routinely and states around the world was routinely challenged by other, transnational threatschallenged by other, transnational threats

A sense that processes of global change were A sense that processes of global change were amplifying transnational threats and reducing amplifying transnational threats and reducing the likelihood of conventional threatsthe likelihood of conventional threats

Drivers of Global ChangeDrivers of Global Change

There is no consensus on what There is no consensus on what exactly is transforming the security exactly is transforming the security landscape but researchers tend to landscape but researchers tend to emphasize several related factors:emphasize several related factors: Technological innovationTechnological innovation DemocratizationDemocratization Economic globalizationEconomic globalization UrbanizationUrbanization Population growthPopulation growth

Transnational Security Transnational Security IssuesIssues

The net result is less emphasis on The net result is less emphasis on great power war, and more attention great power war, and more attention on a set of on a set of interactiveinteractive and and transnationaltransnational security issues such as: security issues such as:

Environmental changeEnvironmental change Infectious diseaseInfectious disease Economic, political and cultural inequalityEconomic, political and cultural inequality Global terrorismGlobal terrorism Transnational crimeTransnational crime Civil conflictCivil conflict

The New Security The New Security DilemmaDilemma

Our world is organized into some Our world is organized into some 200 sovereign states, but many of 200 sovereign states, but many of the urgent security challenges we the urgent security challenges we face are transnational in terms of face are transnational in terms of both their structure and their impact both their structure and their impact

Why this Matters to the Why this Matters to the Conservation CommunityConservation Community

1.1. What conservationists do, can directly and What conservationists do, can directly and indirectly affect many factors that indirectly affect many factors that determine vulnerability and threat at the determine vulnerability and threat at the human and country levelshuman and country levels

2.2. Awareness of these complex linkages may Awareness of these complex linkages may lead to more effective conservation lead to more effective conservation programs supported by larger programs supported by larger constituencies and also provide valuable constituencies and also provide valuable input into the policy arenainput into the policy arena

3.3. The conservation community has a long The conservation community has a long history of transnational cooperation to history of transnational cooperation to build on and to share with othersbuild on and to share with others

Why this Matters to the Why this Matters to the Public Health CommunityPublic Health Community

Many public health concerns are associated Many public health concerns are associated with transnational phenomena such as with transnational phenomena such as world trade, climate change, air and water world trade, climate change, air and water pollution, and the global food systempollution, and the global food system

Bringing together different sectors may Bringing together different sectors may lead to more effective health programs and lead to more effective health programs and policiespolicies

The public health community has a The public health community has a tradition of transnational cooperation upon tradition of transnational cooperation upon which to buildwhich to build

2. Overview of 2. Overview of Environmental Security Environmental Security

ResearchResearch

Historical MilestonesHistorical Milestones

Environmental researchers and practitioners Environmental researchers and practitioners pioneered in linking their concerns to security:pioneered in linking their concerns to security:

1970s1970s First tentative suggestions that security and environmental First tentative suggestions that security and environmental

degradation might be linked in significant ways, e.g.:degradation might be linked in significant ways, e.g.: Resource Wars scenarios linked to OPEC crisisResource Wars scenarios linked to OPEC crisis Neo-Malthusianism ideas of Population BombNeo-Malthusianism ideas of Population Bomb

19871987 ““Our Common Future” suggests links among environmental Our Common Future” suggests links among environmental

change, population dynamics, urbanization, and conflictchange, population dynamics, urbanization, and conflict 19891989

End of the Cold War leads to rapid growth in research on End of the Cold War leads to rapid growth in research on the relationship between the environment and securitythe relationship between the environment and security

Major Research Major Research DirectionsDirections

In the 1990s, research on In the 1990s, research on environmental change and security environmental change and security became widespread, well-funded, became widespread, well-funded, and influential. It can be organized and influential. It can be organized into two broad areas:into two broad areas: Environmental change and violent Environmental change and violent

conflictconflict Environmental change and vulnerabilityEnvironmental change and vulnerability

Environmental Change and Environmental Change and Violent Conflict Violent Conflict

Resource scarcity leads to civil conflictResource scarcity leads to civil conflict E.g. Homer-Dixon; Baechler; KingE.g. Homer-Dixon; Baechler; King

Resource abundance leads to civil conflictResource abundance leads to civil conflict E.g. Gleditsch; Collier; De SoysaE.g. Gleditsch; Collier; De Soysa

Urbanization and economic development, Urbanization and economic development, processes that affect natural resources, lead to processes that affect natural resources, lead to civil conflictcivil conflict E.g. DalbyE.g. Dalby

Conservation practices can lead to civil Conservation practices can lead to civil conflict conflict E.g. Matthew, Halle and SwitzerE.g. Matthew, Halle and Switzer

Environmental Change and Environmental Change and Violent Conflict (cont’d)Violent Conflict (cont’d)

Each of the above factors can lead to Each of the above factors can lead to conflict, but conflict is not always bad: it conflict, but conflict is not always bad: it can lead to cooperation can lead to cooperation E.g Conca and Dabelko; Matthew, McDonald E.g Conca and Dabelko; Matthew, McDonald

and Gaulinand Gaulin Environmental impacts of the militaryEnvironmental impacts of the military

E.g. WestingE.g. Westing Potential of the military to contribute to the Potential of the military to contribute to the

conservation agendaconservation agenda E.g. ButtsE.g. Butts

Challenges of conservation efforts in Challenges of conservation efforts in conflict or post-conflict areasconflict or post-conflict areas E.g Oglethorpe et al.E.g Oglethorpe et al.

Environmental Change Environmental Change and Vulnerability and Vulnerability

Environmental changes can increase Environmental changes can increase vulnerability:vulnerability:

through a gradual decline of resources through a gradual decline of resources and gradual spread of health problemsand gradual spread of health problems

to shocks like natural disasters by to shocks like natural disasters by reducing buffer zonesreducing buffer zones

through displacement such as through displacement such as movement to urban or peri-urban areasmovement to urban or peri-urban areas

General ConcernsGeneral Concerns

There is a recognition that conservation There is a recognition that conservation practices can unintentionally lead to declines practices can unintentionally lead to declines in human security or to the triggering or in human security or to the triggering or amplification of violent conflictamplification of violent conflict

There is a general sense that burdens are There is a general sense that burdens are disproportionately placed on women, disproportionately placed on women, children and the poor in the developing children and the poor in the developing world world

There is also a widespread sentiment that There is also a widespread sentiment that conservation can be a force of stability and conservation can be a force of stability and human securityhuman security

Highlights of this Highlights of this Research Research

Focused enormous attention on the Focused enormous attention on the security implications of climate security implications of climate change, biodiversity loss, etc.change, biodiversity loss, etc.

Brief, but energetic, period of policy Brief, but energetic, period of policy making under President Clintonmaking under President Clinton

Engagement with this research by Engagement with this research by academics, policy makers and academics, policy makers and environmental NGOs around the environmental NGOs around the worldworld

3. IUCN’s Activities on 3. IUCN’s Activities on Environmental SecurityEnvironmental Security

Phase 1Phase 1

IUCN recognized in the mid-1990s that IUCN recognized in the mid-1990s that it needed to examine the environmental it needed to examine the environmental security literaturesecurity literature

Phase 1: State of the Art Review to get a Phase 1: State of the Art Review to get a sense of research and its implicationssense of research and its implications Presented to OECDPresented to OECD

As a result of the OECD presentation, As a result of the OECD presentation, IUCN Pakistan commissioned a study IUCN Pakistan commissioned a study applying this perspective to Northern applying this perspective to Northern PakistanPakistan

Phase 2Phase 2 Phase 2: Phase 2:

“Converging Crises” “Converging Crises” study in Pakistan’s study in Pakistan’s Northwestern Northwestern Frontier Province Frontier Province (NWFP) by IUCN and (NWFP) by IUCN and IISDIISD Results presented at Results presented at

Earth Forum and Earth Forum and WCC in 2000WCC in 2000

Project stimulated Project stimulated broader interest broader interest within IUCN within IUCN

Phase 3Phase 3

Phase 3: Creation of a Phase 3: Creation of a task force to undertake task force to undertake a global set of case a global set of case studiesstudies Task force hosted Task force hosted

Environmental Security Environmental Security Day at World Summit in Day at World Summit in Johannesburg in 2002Johannesburg in 2002

Results of case studies Results of case studies published as published as Conserving Conserving the Peacethe Peace in 2002. in 2002.

Phase 4 Phase 4 Phase 4 – Phase 4 – Conserving the PeaceConserving the Peace

prompted IUCN South Asia to prompted IUCN South Asia to establish a project to investigate a establish a project to investigate a specific issue raised in that study specific issue raised in that study that seemed relevant to many places that seemed relevant to many places in South Asia.in South Asia.

Project: Sustainable Livelihoods, Project: Sustainable Livelihoods, Environmental Security and Conflict Environmental Security and Conflict MitigationMitigation

4. One World, One 4. One World, One Health ProjectHealth Project

ConclusionsConclusions