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WORLD BANK GROUP GOALS Ending poverty in a changing development

landscape: the post MDGs framework

May 23, 2013 Cyril Muller, Vice President

External Affairs, The World Bank

Annual Conference of the Parliamentary Network Baku, Azerbaijan

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World Bank Group Goals

End extreme poverty: the percentage of people living with less than US$ 1.25 a day to fall to 3 percent by 2030

Promote shared prosperity: foster income growth of the bottom 40 percent of the population in every country

Sustainability, an overarching theme Achieving these goals require promoting environmental, social, and fiscal sustainability: i) secure the long-term future of our planet and its resources; ii) aim for sustained social inclusion; and iii) limit the size of economic debt inherited by future generations

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The poverty target of 3% by 2030 • Is this target feasible given recent history? Yes

– In the last 30 years, poverty has fallen about one percentage point per year • In 1981, 50+% of developing world citizens lived on less than $1.25 a day • In 2010, this rate dropped to 21%

– Requires at least keeping the pace of average consumption growth since 1999 (4.3% per year) with no increase in inequality

– evidence of poverty reduction programs across the world being more effective

– Growth is creating jobs, especially in Asia and Latin America

• Is reaching this target certain? No – Global shocks and natural disasters are threats – At lower levels of poverty, further improvements mean addressing the

deeper pockets of poverty – Progress in poverty reduction requires fundamental institutional and

governance reforms, particularly in LICs and FCSs

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Can we get to zero by 2030?

Poverty Rate (at US$1.25) in Poorest Countries and Fragile and Conflict-Affected Countries

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Popu

latio

n liv

ing

on le

ss th

an $

1.25

a d

ay, 2

005

PPP

(%)

Developing World Average in 2010 (21%)

…Unlikely Small proportion of population

will remain vulnerable and move in and out of extreme poverty in many countries

To get to 0% globally, every country would have to reach zero

Several very poor and fragile and conflict-affected countries will not be able to reach 3 %

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Building shared prosperity

Growth in real income of the less well-off segment of the population

• Defined as the real income per capita of the bottom 40% of the population of every country

• A growing economy and a fundamental concern for equity • Direct focus on the incomes of the poor

• Growth is necessary. But not any growth sustained growth that makes the less well-off an integral part of that process

• Not about redistributing a fixed pie, but expanding the size of the pie continuously and sharing it

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-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Annu

al C

onsu

mpt

ion

Gro

wth

(%)

Income growth of the bottom 40% (Annual household consumption rate, early 2000s - late 2000s)

Average income growth Income growth of the bottom 40%

First — Analyze performance by income growth of the poor Second — Analyze performance of the poor compared to the average

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Growth

Job Creation

Poverty Reduction

Opportunities For All

Transfers Taxes

Pathways for shared prosperity

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The changing development landscape:

Progress towards the MDGs The post-2015 MDGs framework

9

12

3

12

11

26

12

18

13

5

66

34

41

61

24

5

8

55

27

7

9

14

11

22

20

7

6

10

4

9

8

10

28

34

26

5

9

24

71

43

31

42

71

74

43

63

31

18

26

20

2

2

11

22

30

MDG 1.a Extreme poverty (% of population living below $1.25 a day,2005 PPP)

MDG 1.c Prevalence of undernourishment (% of population)

MDG 2.a - Primary completion rate (% of relevant age group)

MDG 3.a Ratio of girls to boys in primary and secondary education (%)

MDG 4.a Under five mortality rate (per 1,000 live births)

MDG 4.a Infant mortality rate (per 1,000 live births)

MDG 5.a Maternal mortality ratio (modeled estimates, per 100,000 livebirths)

MDG 7.c Access to safe drinking water (% of population with access)

MDG 7.c Access to basic sanitation (% of population with access)

SUFFICIENT PROGRES (<2015) METINSUFFICIENT PROGRESS (2015-2020) MODERATELY OFF TARGET (2020-2030)SERIOUSLY OFF TARGET (>2030) INSUFFICIENT DATA

2015

Progress towards the MDGs

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The people and the planet

Inequality Gender Governance Human Rights Partnerships

Environmental Economic

Jobs and Employment

Food Security and nutrition Water/Sanitation Sustainable

Oceans Green Growth

Sustainable Energy

Social Protection DRR Peace and Security Health Education

There are many possible indicators still to be debated

Inclusive Growth

Social

Sustainability

Access to Technology

Cross cutting themes

Indicators

The Post-2015 MDG discussions are ongoing…

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Member State discussions on the

Sustainable Development Goals

have only just begun and will continue until

the first quarter of 2014

Environmental Sustainability

Peace and Security

Inclusive Social Development

Inclusive Economic

Development

• Education • Health and

population • Social protection

and youth • Climate/DRR

• Food & Nutrition • Agriculture • Land degradation • Water • Sanitation • Energy

• Human rights • Women’s

empowerment • Conflict

Prevention • Governance / RoL

• Partnerships • Productive

employment • Sustainable cities • Sustainable

transport

Sustainable Development Goals

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THANK YOU