Workshop on HIW-THORPEX Legacy Project – 18/03/2013 1 Forecasts for renewable energy and disaster management Renate Hagedorn Scientific and Operational

Workshop on HIW-THORPEX Legacy Project – 18/03/2013 1

Forecasts for renewable energy

and disaster management

Renate Hagedorn Scientific and Operational Management Division

Deutscher Wetterdienst


Motivation

Moving towards sustainable supply of energy based on renewables

Focus on wind- and solar power production

Weather dependent, fluctuating power production

Contribution of Renewables [%] to Total Power Production in Germany

2010: 18%

2012: 25%

?

?

?


A new component in the system

Renewable Energy Conventional Energy

Energy Consumption

Net Transfer

Load + Net Transfer = RE + CE

35% 65%

90%

controllablepredictable


Challenge for TSOs

Ensure the balance between production and consumption at any time…

…under the constraint of limited grid capacity

Growing proportion of weather-dependent power production requires

new strategies for managing the power grid

German High-Voltage Transmission System


Various options to guarantee stability of grid:

Re-dispatch of conventional power plants, transmission of surplus energy between

regulatory areas, positive/negative energy reserves (pumping stations)

Down-regulation of renewable power plants

Unexpected events can jeopardise safety of grid:

Unexpected high production of power can cause failure of equipment (power

transformation stations) with possible consequences also for neighbouring grids

Unexpected low production of power can cause shortages (load shedding)

Role of Transmission System Operators (TSOs)


HIW for PV power production

„observed“

Fog predicted, but not observed

Difference: Day-Ahead Forecast ~ 6 GW, Intra-Day Forecast ~ 3 GW

Operating Reserve: ±4.5 GW


Prediction „Observation“

30.01.2013 30.01.2013

source: http://www.transparency.eex.com(average electricity consumption: ~60 GW)

HIW for wind power production

Observed wind below the level necessary for peak production


0 5 10 15 20 25 30windspeed [m/s]

0

20

40

60

80

100

win

dpow

er [%

of m

axim

um p

rodu

ctio

n]

Expected Value of user function ⟨UF⟩

⟨UF(x)⟩

●● ● ●● ●● ●●

(Theoretical) linear user function

UF (⟨x⟩)=

⟨x⟩


0 5 10 15 20 25 30windspeed [m/s]

0

20

40

60

80

100

win

dpow

er [%

of m

axim

um p

rodu

ctio

n]

Expected Value of user function ⟨UF⟩

●● ● ●● ●● ●●

Nonlinear user function

⟨UF(x)⟩UF (⟨x⟩)≠

The expected value of the user function is not equal to

the user function of the expected value,

but depends on the whole ensemble ⟨x⟩


So far the theory…

“In theory” the advantages of incorporating information on the level of

uncertainty are acknowledged

R&D of TSOs actively ask for scenarios

Operation Managers are (partly) still reluctant to incorporate this information

Main concerns: Accountability… “if something goes wrong we need to justify our decision”

Information overload… “too much information is confusing rather than helping”

The way forward: Automatic (user-specific) systems to suggest “best decision”

Condensed (user-specific) presentation of information to prepare for alternative

scenarios

Projects to explore this route just starting at DWD


New research projects

Funding agency: Federal Ministry for Environment

Collaborative projects with partners in research and industry

EWeLiNE Duration: 4 years, 12/2012 – 11/2016, 13 scientist positions

Highlight: assimilation of wind power production observations

ORKA Duration: 3 years, 08/2012 – 08/2015, 2 scientist positions

Highlight: direct communication between developer and user on deficiencies in

prediction system, i.e. frequent cycle of development-evaluation work

External advisory committee: industrial user and provider of weather-

and power-prediction models, to: discuss results

incorporate external experiences

insure that developments are geared towards the needs of general user


Disaster Management


Disaster Management


Disaster Management

What is GDACS?

GDACS is a cooperation framework under the United Nations umbrella. It includes disaster managers and disaster information systems worldwide and aims at filling the information and coordination gap in the first phase after major disasters.

GDACS provides real-time access to web-based disaster information systems and related coordination tools.

What services does GDACS provide?

provides alerts and impact estimations after major disasters

develops standards and guidelines for international information exchange in disasters

provides the real-time coordination platform

coordinates the creation and dissemination of disaster maps and satellite images

Detailed weather forecast are provided rapidly on demand by SARWeather

a broken link…


Two levels of response

An event (disaster) is detected: Assessment of humanitarian impact

Actual response

An event (potential disaster) is predicted: Depending on the level of (un)certainty preparations for actual response

Continuous update on prediction

50 mm11/03/2013, 00 UTC

40 mm10/03/2013, 12 UTC

110 mm09/03/2013, 12 UTC

08/03/2013, 12 UTC

ECMWF EPS-FC

Noumea, New Caledonia120 mm


Summary

Growing proportion of energy supply based on renewables requires

new strategies to integrate meteorological information into decision-making

focus on reliable forecast systems

consideration of user defined high-impact events

National disaster relief organizations ask for

global early warnings for preparatory actions

frequent updates in the event of a possible disaster

consideration of individual vulnerability levels

Documents

Workshop on HIW-THORPEX Legacy Project – 18/03/2013 1 Forecasts for renewable energy and disaster management Renate Hagedorn Scientific and Operational