- A D V A N C E D E X E C U T I V E E D U C A T I O N -

Strategic Partner: Researched & Developed By:

WORKSHOP 1:

SALES & OPERATIONS PLANNING 7 - 8 MARCH 2011 . JW MARRIOTT KUALA LUMPUR

WORKSHOP 2:

DEMAND MANAGEMENT & FORECASTING 10 - 11 MARCH 2011 . JW MARRIOTT KUALA LUMPUR

T: 603 9206 5800 I F: 603 9200 7946 I E: ibn@intel-biznet.com

Workshop content is aligned with Institute of Business Forecasting & Workshop content is aligned with Institute of Business Forecasting & Workshop content is aligned with Institute of Business Forecasting & Planning (IBF) / International Institute of Forecasters (IIF) forecasting Planning (IBF) / International Institute of Forecasters (IIF) forecasting Planning (IBF) / International Institute of Forecasters (IIF) forecasting certification curriculums:certification curriculums:certification curriculums:

. 20th Century Fox

. Accenture

. AGFA

. AOL

. Astra Zeneca

. Avon

. BASF

. Baxter

. Panasonic

. Capgemini

. Caterpillar

. Cisco Systems

. Toyota

. DELL

. Deloitte

. Delta Airlines

. EBay

. FedEx

. France Telecom Group

. Gillette

. Google Inc

. Heineken

. Heinz

. Honeywell

. IBM

. Infosys

. Intel

. Intuit

. Johnson & Johnson

. Levi Strauss

. Kawasaki

. General Motors Dealer

. Reckit and Colman Canada

. Merrill Lynch

. Almarai Company

. Microsoft

. Motorola

. Nestle

. Novartis

. PT Philips Indonesia

. Sanofi-Aventis

. P&G

. Pfizer UK

. SaraLee

. SAS

. Saudi Aramco

. Shering-Plough

. Sony Canada

. Swissair

. The Dow Chemical Company

. Unilever

. Verizon International

. Vogue

. Toshiba Elctronics

. Warner Brothers

. Celcom Mobile

Dear Delegate(s),

In the aftermath of the global recession, it has never been clearer to companies that only an AGILE SUPPLY CHAIN will empower organisations with the ability to respond quickly to demand, increase flexibility in their operations, and ultimately help them achieve competitive advantage. The Integrated Business Management process is the company’s engine. My aim is to guide you to develop a demand-driven supply chain network with Sales & Operations Planning and Demand Management & Forecasting. With real-life business scenario insights and hands-on practices, you will learn the secret to achieve sustainable performance in your organisational processes.

See you soon!

Charles Novak

Charles L. Novak, CPIMCharles L. Novak, CPIMCharles L. Novak, CPIM Principal Consultant and PresidentPrincipal Consultant and PresidentPrincipal Consultant and President Jaguar Advanced Planning Services Inc.Jaguar Advanced Planning Services Inc.Jaguar Advanced Planning Services Inc.

Charles Novak has over 23 years of management and consulting experience in Demand and Supply Planning. Charles is the Co-founder and President of Jaguar Advanced Planning Services Inc., a consulting company that focuses its efforts on helping organisations to optimise their Demand and Supply Chains. He has proven ability to reduce costs, increase efficiency, and improve profitability by focusing on transforming any or all of these three key areas: PEOPLE, PROCESS, OR TECHNOLOGY.

As a lead member of Jaguar Advanced Planning Services Inc. team, Charles has worked with leading Fortune 500 Companies. Among his outstanding achievement include initiating organisational design and implementation of demand planning function and process supported by new process and tools which resulted in improvement in customer service and inventory savings of over $1 million within first 12 months post implementation. Charles has helped implement demand planning systems to several of Jaguar-APS clients, SAP APO Demand Planning and Manugistics Demand Planning systems to two major FMCG companies in Canada. Charles was the Head of Demand Planning Department at Pfizer Consumer Healthcare, Canada where he was responsible for the development, agreement, and accuracy of their $380 Million demand forecast, as well as for the research, evaluation, and recommendation of new technology in the demand planning area. He was an active member of the Executive Sales & Operations Planning Process. He was also responsible for designing and implementing a new Consensus Demand Planning Process, which brought together Sales, Marketing, Finance, and Supply Chain groups to discuss all forecast related issues with a mandate of a Single Number Forecast. Charles holds a B.A. in Business Administration in Czechoslovakia (with concentration in Operations Management, Planning, Purchasing, Accounting and Economics). He has also earned a Materials Management Diploma in Business Administration (with concentrations in Production Planning and Inventory Control, Purchasing, Statistical Process/Quality Control, Value Analysis and Computer Applications) from Conestoga College of Applied Arts and Technology, Guelph, Ontario. Charles regularly speaks at IBF (Institute of Business Forecasting) and IIF (International Institute of Forecasters) conferences and workshops worldwide. Charles has taught courses for APICS in Certification in Production and Inventory Management (CPIM) and Fundamentals of Operations Management since 1999. In addition, he has led numerous in-house training sessions/workshops on Demand and Inventory Management for Sales, Marketing and Market Operations teams in Europe, America, The Middle East and Asia.

Getting the right quantity of the right item to the right location at the right time...

IS THIS YOUR BIGGEST CHALLENGE?

IDENTIFY your role in the entire Integrated Business Management process, from implementation to sustained performance

INTERPRET the outputs from Product Management, Demand Management, and Supply Management, and their implications on the business

DEVELOP the best forward plan and demand forecast for your company ADAPT and USE the Integrated Business Management process in complex situations, such as in regional

and global situations and in companies with multiple sites IMPLEMENT a continuous review process to achieve the company’s strategic and competitive priorities UNDERSTAND how Integrated Business Management / Executive Sales and Operations Planning has

evolved into a fully integrated process REPLAN and OPTIMISE the company in the face of changing circumstances ASSESS demonstrated performance as the realistic planning base for forward projections GRASP good understanding of various statistical forecasting methods, their strengths and weaknesses ALIGN internal collaboration between Sales & Operations to improve the forecasting of promotions,

new product launches and events ACHIEVE greater supply flexibility to meet customer needs more quickly and efficiently

ATTEND THE WORKSHOPS TO...ATTEND THE WORKSHOPS TO...

Partial Client List of Jaguar APS’s Trainings

& Consultation

CEOs, COOs, Executive Directors, Directors, SVPs, VPs, Regional Managers, General Managers, Senior Managers, Business Owners, Entrepreneurs, Managers, and other Senior Executives who are responsible for:

Sales & Operations Planning Sales & Marketing Strategic/Tactical Purchasing Supply Chain Management Demand Supply Allocation and Planning Strategic Planning

Business Development Demand Planning Distribution e-Business Economics Finance Information Systems

Operations Marketing Merchandising Merger & Acquisition Business Planning Demand Management Purchasing

Retail Collaboration Strategic Analysis Manufacturing Demand Forecasting Financial Forecasting Product Management New Business

In this workshop, attendees will learn the concepts and go through the process of implementing S&OP as described by T.F. Wallace, Oliver Wight International, Ventana Research, Aberdeen Research and many others. It provides an overview of the supporting processes of Product Management, Demand Management, and Supply Management, along with roles that Marketing, Sales, and Finance play for benefit of the company as a whole. With interactive discussions, case studies, role plays and brain-storming sessions, participants will simulate a real-life business scenario, which will allow them to gain insight and knowledge as they experience the transformation in a controlled setting that they can apply to their own specific business needs. This course will provide valuable tools and assessment to get them to the next level in the S&OP plan.

MODULE 1 DISCOVERYMODULE 1 DISCOVERY Workshop Approach Introduction Team Activity - FMCG Inc. Case Study

Analysis of Company’s Current State Identify Areas of Opportunity/Prioritise Needs Current Planning Process Mapping Forecasting Self-Audit

Team Discussion – What a Senior Management Needs to Know People, Process, Tools Evolution of Integrated Business Management Key Inputs to the Process Including Key Roles

and Responsibilities The General Manager’s Role in S&OP

Details to be Completed Before the Process Can Begin Development of Common Language Between Sales,

Marketing and Manufacturing Implementation Steps and Who to Include on the Task Force

MODULE 2 UNDERSTANDING BENEFITS MODULE 2 UNDERSTANDING BENEFITS Demand Management Process

The Key Elements of Excellence Problems Leading to Forecast Errors Documenting Assumptions for Improved Communications

and Decision Making Team Activity

Development of Demand Plan – Current State Results Evaluation / Metrics (MAPE / Bias vs. Customer

Service and Asset Management) What Went Wrong?

S&OP Best Practices Overview Why is S&OP Process Important Business Planning Behind S&OP Creating the Demand Plan – Linking it to Budgets / Financial

Updates

TTHISHIS WORKSHOPWORKSHOP WASWAS DESIGNEDDESIGNED TOTO HELPHELP ELIMINATEELIMINATE THETHE FOLLOWINGFOLLOWING SYMPTOMSSYMPTOMS OFOF INADEQUATEINADEQUATE PPLANNINGLANNING ANDAND CCONTROLONTROL:: Poor Customer Service High Inventory Constant Changes to Production Schedule Missed Customer Deliveries High Distribution and Transportation costs Risk Associated with Financial Commitments

WORKSHOP OVERVIEWWORKSHOP OVERVIEW

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WHO SHOULD ATTENDWHO SHOULD ATTEND

Operations Planning for S&OP – Link Through Rough Cut Capacity Planning

Development of S&OP Policy Definition of Product Families

S&OP Meeting Structure Roles and Responsibilities of Key Process Stakeholders Develop KPIs and Scorecards Develop S&OP Spreadsheet

MODULE 3 EXPERIENCING S&OP MODULE 3 EXPERIENCING S&OP Review of Inputs and Outputs of the S&OP Cycle Team Driven S&OP Activity

Demand Review / Consensus Meeting GAP Meeting / Pre-SOP Executive Meeting

First Benefits Identification / Realisation Discussion MODULE 4 S&OP IMPLEMENTATION STEPS OVERVIEW MODULE 4 S&OP IMPLEMENTATION STEPS OVERVIEW Awareness and Understanding Create Experts and Agents of Change Investment in Skill Development & Behaviour Change Tips for Continuous Improvement

Linking Upstream Supply Chain Linking Customers via CPFR Others

Post-Implementation Audits Overview MODULE 5 CLOSING DISCUSSIONMODULE 5 CLOSING DISCUSSION Group Discussion - FMCG Inc. 18 months later

S&OP Self-Audit Jaguar-APS Real Life Examples

WORKSHOP 1: 7 - 8 MARCH 2011

Sales and Operations Planning

Source: Ventana Research

“The workshop was very informative. And most importantly, I can apply what I learned immediately.” Demand Forecaster . LEVIS “Excellent. Workshop directly applicable to our company plans and process.” Demand Planning Manager . SOURCE MEDICAL CORP “The quality and appropriateness of the presentation has exceeded my expectations. I have gained valuable insights from this workshop.” Corporate Planning Manager . CARGILL “Excellent introduction for me to learn the art/science of forecasting. Well worth the trip all the way from ‘down under’.” CEO . CONSOLIDATED APPAREL AUSTRALIA

“Overall experience - very useful and resourceful.” AMBANK GROUP “I found Charles’ references to his personal experiences in the area of Demand Management very useful - wish I could have had more of it!!” Demand Planning Manager . ALMARAI COMPANY “A lot of real life examples to relate to training materials – fantastic!” Merchandising / Business Analyst . COURTS MAMMOTH “A very good program for Demand Forecasting professionals in terms of updating their skills and knowledge in the latest development field of forecasting.” Regional Sales Manager . ETISALAT

This workshop is specifically designed to address key issues on the minds of those with management and executive responsibilities and those who work alongside them. Attendees will hear real world lessons learned that will enable better decision making when they are back in their office. The hands-on portions of the workshop offer more in depth look into forecasting and planning. Extra time is devoted to these segments of workshop to offer hands-on exercises designed to demonstrate the forecasting concepts and their applicability. The case studies built into the workshop are real life situations demonstrating the good and not as good business practices we have experienced firsthand when helping our clients to reach their objectives.

MODULE 1 MODULE 1 KEYS TO SUCCESSFUL FKEYS TO SUCCESSFUL FORECASTING PROCESS ORECASTING PROCESS AND FUNCTIONAND FUNCTION Problems and Needs Goals and Objectives Coordination and Leadership Process Management Forecast Model Development Communication with Participants and Users Four Forecasting Process Approaches

Independent Concentrated Consensus (Operational Forecast)

One Number Myths About Forecasting Group Activity 1 – Silo Forecasting Case Study: Exploring the impact of Silo Forecasting on the Entire Organisation MODULE 2 MODULE 2 DISTINCTION BETWEEN DISTINCTION BETWEEN DEMAND PLANNING AND DEMAND PLANNING AND BUSINESS FORECASTINGBUSINESS FORECASTING The Bullwhip Effect Demand Variability and the Methods Used to Minimise It Recognition of Data Patterns Sources of Volatility in Data and Their Solutions Historical and Statistical Forecasting vs. Forward Looking Input Group Activity 2 – Historical Outliers, Seasonality and Trend Recognition and Remediation The key to successful Statistical Forecasting using ANY commercially available software

MODULE 3 MODULE 3 INPUTS AND OUTPUTS OINPUTS AND OUTPUTS OF DEMAND PLANF DEMAND PLAN Profit Potential Operations Planning and Forecast

Master Scheduling ATP (Available to Promise) Calculations Safety Stock Calculations

MODULE 4 MODULE 4 FORECASTING MODELS: QUANTITATIVE /FORECASTING MODELS: QUANTITATIVE /QUALITATIVEQUALITATIVE How Much Data to Use for Different Statistical Models Subjective Assessment Models Overview MODULE 5 MODULE 5 TIME SERIES MODELSTIME SERIES MODELS Inherent Assumptions When Time Series Work and When They Don’t Time Series Elements – Level, Trend, Seasonality, Cyclicality,

Randomness Selection of Methods Group Activity 3 - Exponential Smoothing and Averages Learn by doing. Participants will explore simple forecasting models by building them in MS Excel. These models are common to all forecasting systems in the market. Many forecasters create higher forecast error by simply not understanding the impact of changing the models and/or their statistical parameters. By building these models in excel, you will solidify your knowledge of these critical base concepts. Group Activity 4 - Seasonal Decomposition Building on Group Activity 3 and following discussion, this will analyse sales data to find patterns in past sales that we can use to predict future sales. As we find a pattern, we strip it away from the data, changing the shape of the data that remains. Then, look for new patterns and strip them away. We continue to strip away patterns until only unexplained fluctuations remain. Understanding this technique is fundamental to successful statistical forecasting using ANY commercially available software / system.

WORKSHOP OVERVIEWWORKSHOP OVERVIEW

WORKSHOP 2: 10 - 11 MARCH 2011

Demand Management & Forecasting W

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CLIENT TESTIMONIALSCLIENT TESTIMONIALS

IMPORTANT: To translate and expedite classroom learning to real-world applications, participants are REQUIRED to bring along personal notebook computers.

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MAPE vs. WMAPE

Forecast Error and Exception Reports in Action

MODULE 8 NEW PRODUCMODULE 8 NEW PRODUCT FORECASTINGT FORECASTING

New Product Success Rate / Error Rates

New Product Success Factors / Failure Factors

Issues to Consider when Developing New Product Forecasts

Quantitative and Qualitative Methods used in New Product Forecasting

Group Activity 7 – New Product Forecast Development at Pfizer Consumer Healthcare Discuss and understand the concepts of modelling forecast for new products that fall into line-extension category

MODULE 9 PROMOTIONS FORECASTMODULE 9 PROMOTIONS FORECAST

Promotions Forecast Error

Manage the Process for Unplanned and Abnormal Demand

Factors, Issues, and Considerations in Developing Promotions Forecasts

Cannibalisation Impact of Promotions on Base / Opens Stock SKUs

MODULE 10 FORECASTIMODULE 10 FORECASTING BEST PRACTICES SUMMARYNG BEST PRACTICES SUMMARY

Forecasting Process

Data Collection & Analysis

Methods & Models

Software & Systems

Communications

People

MODULE 6 CAUSE AND EFFECT MODELSMODULE 6 CAUSE AND EFFECT MODELS

Regression Models

When to Use Regression Models

Steps in Development

Key Assumptions

Group Activity 5 – UAE Electric Utility Company Practical walk-through multiple regression forecasting technique using external data as a leading indicator for UAE based Electric Utility Company

Group Activity 6 – Incorporating Moving Holidays and Growth Variables into Statistical Forecast Practical walk-through multiple regression forecasting technique using Ramadan/Haj seasonal calendar and strong business growth that simple forecasting methods cannot capture

MODULE 7 MINIMISING FORECASTING ERRORMODULE 7 MINIMISING FORECASTING ERROR

Manage Demand Control Processes to Formally Manage Short Term Fluctuations

Measure the Accuracy of the Forecast, other Vital Demand Information and also Measure and Control the Inbuilt Levels of Agreed Inaccuracy

Forecasting Error Metrics

Uses of Error Measures

Sources of Error

Error Analysis, Communication, and Remediation

Exception Driven Forecasting Process

Relationship between Bias / MAPE, Customer Service and Inventory KPIs

Simplified Walk through these Four Key Business Measures Every Senior Manager Needs to Understand

Forecasting/Planning New Product Forecasting Strategic/Tactical Purchasing Supply Chain Management Demand Supply Allocation and Planning Load Forecasting Strategic Planning Brand & Product

Management

Business Development Demand Fulfillment Demand Management Planning Distribution e-Business Economics ERP Implementation Finance Information Systems

Inventory Management Inventory Planning Logistics Marketing Materials Management Merchandising Merger & Acquisition New Business Product Development Procurement

Production Planning Purchasing Retail Collaboration Sales & Marketing Sales & Operations Planning Scheduling Sourcing Statistical Modeling Strategic Analysis Warehousing

WHO SHOULD ATTENDWHO SHOULD ATTEND

This course is designed for CEOs, COOs, EDs, Directors, SVPs, VPs, General Managers, Chief Procurement Officers, Advisers, Analysts, Economists, Controllers, Planners, Forecasters, Entrepreneurs and Business Owners who are responsible for:

CHARLES IS AN INDISPUTABLE EXPERT IN HIS FIELD. HE WAS CONSTANTLY LOOKING FOR WAYS TO IMPROVE FORECAST ACCURACY AND SUPPORT THE BUSINESS GROWTH THROUGH NEW PROCESSES, TOOLS AND SYSTEMS. HE CAN MANAGE THE TECHNICAL DETAILS AND YET NEVER LOSE SIGHT OF THE BROAD BUSINESS PERSPECTIVES. HE IS A TEAM PLAYER AND A TRUE PROFESSIONAL, ALWAYS KEEPING THE BEST INTEREST OF THE ORGANISATION IN MIND.

FINANCE DIRECTOR, J&J

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WORKSHOP 2: 10 - 11 MARCH 2011

Demand Management & Forecasting

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Hand-Outs: S&OP Worksheets Simple Time Series Seasonal Decomposition Regression Models Free MS Excel Template for Winters Model

Forecasting

Modules will be moderated through 1. Hands-On MS Excel 2. Demo in MS Excel and Forecasting Software