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ISSN 2454-7115 Working Paper 295 TRADE COMPETITIVENESS OF INDIAN DAIRY INDUSTRY: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS Yashobanta Parida, Avinash K. Ghule and Priyankkumar Dudharejiya

Working Paper 295The study examines major markets, trade direction, and competitiveness of Indian dairy products. Data shows that India became a net exporter of dairy products after

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Page 1: Working Paper 295The study examines major markets, trade direction, and competitiveness of Indian dairy products. Data shows that India became a net exporter of dairy products after

ISSN 2454-7115

Working Paper 295

TRADE COMPETITIVENESS OF INDIAN DAIRY

INDUSTRY: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS

Yashobanta Parida, Avinash K. Ghule and Priyankkumar Dudharejiya

Page 2: Working Paper 295The study examines major markets, trade direction, and competitiveness of Indian dairy products. Data shows that India became a net exporter of dairy products after

Working Paper 295

TRADE COMPETITIVENESS OF INDIAN DAIRY INDUSTRY: AN

EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS

Yashobanta Parida, Avinash K. Ghule and Priyankkumar Dudharejiya

Institute of Rural Management Anand

Post Box No. 60, Anand, Gujarat (India)

Phones: (02692) 263260, 260246, 260391, 261502

Fax: 02692-260188 Email: [email protected]

Website: www.irma.ac.in

September 2019

The purpose of the Working Paper Series (WPS) is to provide an opportunity to IRMA

faculty, visiting fellows, and students to sound out their ideas and research work before

publication and to get feedback and comments from their peer group. Therefore, a working

paper is to be considered as a pre-publication document of the Institute. This is a pre-

publication draft for academic circulation and comments only. The author/s retain the

copyrights of the paper for publication.

This work was supported by the Verghese Kurien Centre of Excellence (VKCoE) under its

sponsored Project “ Trade Competitiveness of Indian Dairy Industry: An Empirical

Analysis”

Page 3: Working Paper 295The study examines major markets, trade direction, and competitiveness of Indian dairy products. Data shows that India became a net exporter of dairy products after

Trade Competitiveness of Indian Dairy Industry: An Empirical Analysis

Yashobanta Parida1, Avinash K. Ghule2 and Priyankkumar Dudharejiya3

Abstract

The study examines major markets, trade direction, and competitiveness of Indian dairy

products. Data shows that India became a net exporter of dairy products after 2000. Yet it

remains a minor player in the context of exporting dairy products in spite of being the largest

milk producer in the world. South Asia, the Middle East, and South East Asia are the major

destinations for India’s dairy products. The Nominal Protection Coefficient (NPC) shows that

the Indian dairy industry, as a whole, lacks export competitiveness because the export prices

of dairy products in India exceed the world export price. The product-wise NPC estimates

show that India is relatively more competitive in the area of exporting cheese and curd

products. Additionally, the Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) coefficient confirms

that India hardly enjoys any comparative advantage for exporting its dairy products. The

econometric results suggest that the world per capita income and exchange rates may

influence the export of dairy products as a whole, while trade liberalisation exerts a positive

impact on dairy exports to an extent.

1 Research Fellow (Economics Area), VKCoE, Institute of Rural Management Anand. Email:

[email protected] 2 Research Fellow (Dairy Economics Area), VKCoE, Institute of Rural Management Anand.

Email: [email protected] 3 Assistant Professor, Food Technology, Ganpat University, Mehsana, Gujarat.

Email: [email protected] Earlier, Research Assistant (Dairy Technology Area), VKCoE, Institute of

Rural Management Anand.

Page 4: Working Paper 295The study examines major markets, trade direction, and competitiveness of Indian dairy products. Data shows that India became a net exporter of dairy products after

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1. INTRODUCTION

India is the largest milk producer in the world; milk and other dairy products account for

about two-thirds of the value of the Indian livestock sector while supporting the livelihoods

of nearly half of India's rural households (GoI, 2018). Milk production in India increased

from merely 20 million tonnes in 1961 to 176 million tonnes in 2017-18, with a Compound

Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 4 per cent (NDDB, 2018; FAO, 2018). It accounted for

about 22 per cent of the global milk production of around 843 MT in 2017-18 (FAO, 2018).

India’s dairy sector is expected to reach Rs 9.4 trillion (US$ 146.2 billion) in 2020 (IBEF,

2018). Before 1999, India was a net importer of dairy products. The successful

implementation of the ‘Operation Flood’ programme and trade reforms caused the direction

of India’s dairy trade to change marginally. After 2000, India becomes a net exporter of dairy

products. Statistics show that India’s export share of dairy products over world dairy exports

increased marginally from 0.1 per cent in 2001 to 0.2 per cent in 2016, while its import share

of dairy products over world dairy imports increased marginally from 0.018 per cent in 2001

to 0.063 per cent in 2016. The Middle East, South Asia, South East Asia, and USA are the

major markets for India’s dairy products. Conversely, India is a favourable market for the

European Union, New Zealand, Australia, UAE, and US dairy products.

As far as the cost of milk production is concerned, India is a competitive producer (Ohlan

2012a). Given that the country is the largest producer of milk and is well endowed with the

natural resources required for increasing dairy production, India’s dairy industry can

potentially increase the volume of its production along with exports (World Bank 2011).

Being home to the largest cattle population with a more developed milk co-operative network

in place across regions has led to increased milk production in India. Nevertheless, higher

input prices, poor milk quality, inadequate milk procurement and processing infrastructure

along with trade restrictions, especially non-tariff barriers to trade (NTBs), are mainly

responsible for affecting the export performance of Indian dairy products. Therefore, the

objectives of this study are to examine the trade direction, level of competitiveness, and

major markets for Indian dairy products. The study employs a Nominal Protection

Coefficient (NPC) and Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) for measuring the

competitiveness of India’s dairy industry with the help of product-wise dairy export data for

the period 2001-2017. The study analyses product-wise export and import performance of

dairy products as well as the major markets for dairy products. The study also attempts to

assess the impact of currency exchange rates and world income on the export of dairy

products.

The remaining part of the study is described below. Section 2 describes a brief review of the

literature related to trade competitiveness of the dairy sector. Section 3 analyses the major

markets for Indian dairy products. Data sources, methods, and measures of competitiveness

are discussed in section 4. Finally, the findings of the study and policy implications are

presented in section 5.

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2. REVIEW OF LITERATURE

The self-sufficiency rate, defined as the ratio of a country’s or region’s share of global milk

production and global milk consumption, is important for influencing the degree and

direction of trade flows (Shadbolt and Apparao, 2016). Most trade theories focus on sources

of comparative advantage while postulating that all nations can gain from trade by

capitalising on their production-related strengths (Ortiz-Ospina, 2018). A few studies do

examine the competitiveness of the dairy industry in India. Ohlan (2014) studied the

competitiveness and determinants of the export of dairy products in India. The study

observed that world market size, exchange rate, and trade liberalisation play a significant role

in terms of enhancing dairy exports from India. Rakotoarisoa and Gulati (2006) deployed the

NPC to examine how the world dairy policy affected dairy trade and competitiveness of the

Indian dairy industry using the annual dairy trade data between 1975 and 2001. They noted

that Indian dairy products lack competitiveness in the world market. Their results also

showed that India is more competitive in the area of whole milk powder (WMP) while also

being a net exporter. Jha (2004) examined the role of tariff, milk price, milk production, and

employment opportunities related to the Indian dairy sector. The study confirmed that free

import of milk has adversely affected employment opportunities of the dairy sector. Rajarajan

et al. (2007) observed that India had been importing more dairy products from developed

countries compared to developing countries. The study states that India gained competitive

advantage in terms of exporting SMP, WMP, and ghee after the introduction of trade reforms.

Kumar (2010) analysed the competitiveness of livestock products and key factors affecting

the export of livestock products. The work showed that trade liberalisation had enhanced the

export performance of livestock products. The study further noted that India lacks

competitiveness in the area of exporting milk and milk products.

3. COUNTRY WISE TRENDS IN EXPORT AND IMPORT IN THE DAIRY

SECTOR

Theoretically speaking, the value of exports of a particular commodity from one country

should match the value of its imports in another country for the year under consideration. In

practice, however, one often encounters some discrepancy because the exports are recorded

FOB (Free on Board) while imports are recorded under CIF (Cost, Insurance and Freight)

(Joshi, 2012). Therefore, we have provided India’s dairy exports and imports – to and from

the world – separately. In this section, the country-wise exports of dairy products as a whole,

from 2001 to 2016, have been presented. Table 1 shows the dairy exports of major 15

countries in the world. In 2001, Germany exported around 16 per cent of its dairy products to

the world, which was the highest; this figure slightly declined to almost 13 per cent in 2016.

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Table 1: Country-wise dairy export to the world

Country

2001 2008 2016

Rank

Value 000

USD

Share

(%)

Value 000

USD

Share

(%)

Value 000

USD

Share

(%)

Based on

2016

Germany 4324516 15.8 9478290 14.3 8089599 12.5 1

New Zealand 2664188 9.7 6562092 9.9 7819257 12.1 2

Netherlands 3331185 12.2 6907739 10.4 7098551 11 3

France 3500867 12.8 7379107 11.2 6301599 9.7 4

United States 598650 2.2 2977259 4.5 3328278 5.1 5

Belgium 1743558 6.4 3397511 5.1 3004900 4.6 6

Italy 945503 3.5 2309230 3.5 2975661 4.6 7

Denmark 1286544 4.7 2562313 3.9 2280439 3.5 8

Ireland 947217 3.5 2096019 3.2 1912793 3 9

Belarus 148656 0.5 1090112 1.6 1815082 2.8 10

United Kingdom 781924 2.9 1497435 2.3 1632948 2.5 11

Australia 1555839 5.7 2207709 3.3 1628380 2.5 12

Poland 369548 1.3 1717809 2.6 1589521 2.5 13

Austria 499591 1.8 1377478 2.1 1221282 1.9 14

Saudi Arabia 129352 0.5 663451 1 1155563 1.8 15

India 39714 0.1 269995 0.4 130531 0.2 48

Top 15 22827138 83.3 52223554 79 51853852 80.2 -

Rest of the world

(194) 4564858 16.7 13920034 21 12798746 19.8 -

Total 27391996 100 66143588 100 64652597 100 -

Note: Authors own calculation. Sources: World Integrated Trade Solutions (WITS).

In terms of milk production, Germany was the sixth largest milk producer in the world

contributing around 4 per cent to global milk production in 20164. Similarly, New Zealand

was the second largest dairy exporter exporting 12 per cent of its total dairy products. Yet in

terms of milk production, it contributed around 3 per cent globally5. The Netherlands’ exports

accounted for around 11 per cent, followed by France (10 per cent), and the US (3 per cent),

and so on in 2016. In the global context of milk production, the Netherlands contributed 1.8

per cent, followed by the US (12 per cent), and so on in the same year6. Table 1 reveals that

more than 50 per cent dairy products were exported by the top five developed countries and

80 per cent by the top 15 countries. It may also be noted that India is a minor player in the

world market in terms of exporting dairy products while being ranked the world’s single

largest country producing dairy animals (including dairy cows and buffalo) (Salois, 2016)7.

India’s export share of dairy products marginally increased from 0.1 per cent in 2001 to 0.2

4 Authors’ own calculation. Sources: Food and Agriculture Organization. 5 Ibid. 6 Ibdi. 7 Ibdi.

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per cent in 2016, while its share of milk production increased from 14 per cent to 22 per cent

in the same period8. Overall, the data shows that the top 15 countries, also major players in

dairy exports, are all developed nations. Milk production, on the other hand, is mainly

dominated by five countries namely India, US, Pakistan, China, and Brazil. Except for the US

(Food and Agriculture Organization) all the rest are developing nations. An interesting

finding of the study is that dairy exports for half the top 15 trading countries (Germany, the

Netherlands, France, Belgium, Denmark, Ireland, the UK and Australia) declined while for

the remaining countries (New Zealand, the US, Poland, Belarus, Saudi Arabia, Italy, and

Austria) it increased between 2001 and 2016 (see Table 1). A country like Belarus, despite

some demand-related limitations from its neighbour (the Russian Federation), has witnessed

augmented output stimulated by government efforts aimed at identifying new export markets

in Europe and beyond (FAO, 2017).

Table 2 shows the country-wise import of dairy products covering the period between 2001

and 2016. It shows that Germany was the leading importer of dairy products, dominating 9

per cent of the world’s total dairy in 2016. Next in line is Italy (5.4 per cent) followed by

China (5.25 per cent), the Netherlands (5.21 per cent), France (5.05 per cent), and the UK (5

per cent). With the exception of China (which is a developing nation) 61 per cent dairy

products were imported by the top 15 developed countries in that period. The data shows that

the import share of dairy products of most top 15 countries declined over the period 2001-

2016, barring a few nations including China, Russian Federation, Hong Kong, Saudi Arabia,

and the UAE where it increased. Interestingly, China’s demand for milk increased manifold

over the same period. While China’s dairy industry continues to grow rapidly, its

consumption has outpaced domestic supply. It is for this reason that exporters from New

Zealand, Europe, Australia, and the United States are locating new opportunities in China’s

dairy market (Gooch, et al. 2017).

Table 2: Country-wise dairy import from the world

2001 2008 2016

Countries

Value in

000 USD

Share

(%)

Value 000

USD

Share

(%)

Value 000

USD

Share

(%) Rank

Germany 2844278 10.34 6780742 10.62 5990836 9.34 1

Italy 2397728 8.72 4777436 7.48 3487660 5.44 2

China 215942 0.79 861671 1.35 3371298 5.25 3

The Netherlands 1645361 5.98 3189480 4.99 3345020 5.21 4

France 1844363 6.71 3318301 5.20 3241572 5.05 5

United Kingdom 1666528 6.06 3833549 6.00 3179704 4.96 6

Belgium 1862070 6.77 3431689 5.37 3134099 4.89 7

United States 1021305 3.71 1679549 2.63 1966013 3.06 8

Russian Federation 391343 1.42 1485723 2.33 1906597 2.97 9

Hong Kong 356389 1.30 502564 0.79 1807866 2.82 10

Saudi Arabia 539947 1.96 1636858 2.56 1784742 2.78 11

8 Ibdi.

Page 8: Working Paper 295The study examines major markets, trade direction, and competitiveness of Indian dairy products. Data shows that India became a net exporter of dairy products after

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2001 2008 2016

Countries

Value in

000 USD

Share

(%)

Value 000

USD

Share

(%)

Value 000

USD

Share

(%) Rank

Spain 1029530 3.74 2627416 4.11 1623210 2.53 12

Mexico 787863 2.87 1469842 2.30 1471133 2.29 13

United Arab Emirates 271844 0.99 814572 1.28 1296716 2.02 14

Japan 740668 2.69 1339277 2.10 1204863 1.88 15

India 4861 0.018 15176 0.024 40436 0.063 93

Top 15 17615160 64.06 37748669 59.11 38811329 60.50 -

Rest of the world 9881845 35.94 26109437 40.89 25343325 39.50 -

Total (205) 27497005 100 63858106 100 64154653 100 -

Note: Authors own calculation. Sources: World Integrated Trade Solutions (WITS).

As far as India’s trade is concerned, it imported 0.018 per cent of its total world dairy imports

in 2001; this marginally increased to 0.06 per cent in 2016. In a nutshell, the data shows that

India still remains a minor player in terms of imports, holding the 93rd position, along with

exports where it is ranked 48th in the world for trade in dairy products.

3.1 Trade Performance of Indian Dairy Sector

This section analyses the trade performance of the Indian dairy sector over the period 1988-

2017. During the early ’80s, domestic milk production was inadequate even in the context of

domestic consumption. From the mid ’80s to 2000 India was heavily dependent on dairy

imports owing to this inadequacy coupled with a growing domestic demand. In order to meet

domestic demands, India imported SMP and value-added milk products.

Figure 1: Trade performance of the Indian dairy sector over the period 1988-2017

Note: Authors own calculation. Sources: World Integrated Trade Solutions (WITS).

0.393

0.162

0.009

0.0540.077

0.0240.0340.051

0.0040.0190.024

0.084

0.0270.010

0.0230.037

0.0130.0050.0120.0060.0050.024

0.0530.038

0.0210.0070.0100.0120.0110.0090.000

0.050

0.100

0.150

0.200

0.250

0.300

0.350

0.400

0.450

198

8

198

9

199

0

199

1

199

2

199

3

199

4

199

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

201

7

Export Share ( as % of total export) Import Share (as % of total import)

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After 2000, India became the net exporter of dairy products mainly because of higher

domestic milk production; yet dairy product exports picked up only after 2003. From 2015

onwards, both export and import of dairy products showed a declining trend. India’s export

share of dairy products marginally improved from 0.013 per cent to 0.055 per cent between

1988 and 2017. Imports declined significantly from 0.393 per cent to 0.009 per cent in the

same period (see figure 1). It may be noted that the overall exports of dairy products dropped

between 2009-10 and 2011-12, evincing a negative trade balance in 2011. This was when the

Government had to restrict exports due to high domestic food price inflation. When

restrictions were lifted, exports recovered to higher levels in 2013 to fall again when world

demand and prices dropped in 2015 (USDA 2017). India’s dairy export volatility could be

attributable to fluctuating milk production and milk quality, increasing domestic milk

consumption, and price instability in in the international market.

3.2 International Markets for India's Dairy Products

Table 3 shows the major export destinations for India’s dairy products. India’s dairy exports

increased from US$ 97.03 million in 2006 to US$ 209.87 million in 2017; exports in the

major 15 countries showed the same trend with the exception of Bangladesh and Pakistan.

South Asia, the Middle East, South East Asia, and the US are the major markets for India’s

dairy products. India’s export share of dairy products to the top 15 countries comprised 63

per cent in 2006 and reached 91 per cent in 2017. Out of this 91 per cent, India’s export to the

Middle East (46 per cent) ranked highest followed by South Asia (30 per cent), South East

Asia (11 per cent), and the US (5 per cent) in 2017. Rising demands for Indian dairy products

in the Middle East, South Asia, and South East Asia may be attributable to lower

transportation costs, taste, and cultural proximity.

Table 3: Country-wise distribution of India’s export of the dairy products

Exports (Values in Million US$)

Country 2006 Share

(%) 2010

Share

(%) 2014

Share

(%) 2017

Share

(%)

U A E 14.55 15.0 23.71 18.8 35.66 17.2 38.45 18.3

Egypt 12.43 12.8 14.68 11.6 0.21 0.1 26.85 12.8

Bhutan 0.33 0.3 0.92 0.7 7.31 3.5 19.7 9.4

Afghanistan 2.03 2.1 1.85 1.5 2.61 1.3 14.58 6.9

Nepal 4.94 5.1 9.59 7.6 13.66 6.6 12.5 6.0

Philippines 2.62 2.7 6.38 5.1 12.99 6.3 12.24 5.8

Singapore 2.34 2.4 3.45 2.7 6.49 3.1 10.43 5.0

Bangladesh 10.8 11.1 14.51 11.5 37.35 18.0 10.2 4.9

U S A 2.26 2.3 2.95 2.3 3.51 1.7 9.78 4.7

Qatar 0.18 0.2 2.01 1.6 3.77 1.8 8.16 3.9

Oman 1.51 1.6 3.27 2.6 6.29 3.0 8.02 3.8

Saudi Arab 2.61 2.7 3.5 2.8 4.58 2.2 5.62 2.7

Kuwait 0.87 0.9 2.61 2.1 4.63 2.2 5.58 2.7

Pakistan 3.58 3.7 4.72 3.7 28.66 13.8 5.32 2.5

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Bahrain 0.48 0.5 2.92 2.3 2.88 1.4 4.6 2.2

Rest of the World 35.5 36.6 29.15 23.1 36.85 17.8 17.84 8.5

Total 97.03 100 126.22 100 207.45 100 209.87 100

Note: Authors own calculation. Sources: Export Import Data Bank Version 7.1, Ministry Of Commerce &

Industry, Government of India.

India’s dairy exports to its neighbours, Bangladesh and Pakistan, had declined between 2006

and 2017. This could be attributed to the prevailing geopolitical factors coupled with

improvements in domestic production. Notably, Indian dairy products have been unable to

penetrate European and South American markets. Table 4 shows the country-wise

distribution of India’s imports of dairy products over the period 2006-2017. India’s dairy

imports increased from US$ 23.5 million in 2006 to US$ 43.8 million in 2017. In 2017, India

imported more than one-fourth dairy products from France followed by Denmark (7.8 per

cent), Italy (6.7 per cent), Germany (6.5 per cent), New Zealand (4.8 per cent), and so on. It

may be observed that almost 65 per cent dairy products imported by India were from 12

major countries. Out of 65 per cent, 55 per cent dairy imports were from the European Union

and the rest from New Zealand, Australia, the UAE, the US, and Nepal. Overall, the data

shows that a majority of India’s dairy imports were mainly from developed nations. There

were a few exceptions like Nepal with a share of around 3 per cent in terms of total dairy

imports by India in 2017.

Table 4: Country-wise distribution of India’s imports of the dairy products

Imports (Values in Million US$)

Country 2006 Share

(%) 2010

Share

(%) 2014

Share

(%) 2017

Share

(%)

France 2.7 11.6 4.3 2.4 11.9 25.8 11.3 25.7

Denmark 1.9 8.0 3.4 1.9 2.7 5.8 3.4 7.8

Italy 0.5 2.0 1.5 0.8 2.6 5.6 2.9 6.7

Germany 0.3 1.3 0.3 0.2 2.2 4.8 2.9 6.5

New Zealand 12.5 53.0 113.2 62.8 6.3 13.6 2.1 4.8

U K 0.4 1.8 2.8 1.5 2.6 5.5 1.9 4.3

Netherland 0.8 3.5 2.3 1.3 4.2 9.0 1.7 3.9

Nepal 2.1 9.0 2.0 1.1 1.6 3.4 1.4 3.1

Australia 0.2 0.9 45.0 25.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.5

Switzerland 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4

U A E 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2

U S A 0.7 2.8 2.4 1.4 4.1 8.9 0.0 0.1

Rest of World 1.3 5.5 2.5 1.4 7.9 17.1 15.4 35.1

Total 23.5 100 180.2 100 46.3 100 43.8 100

Note: Authors own calculation. Sources: Export Import Data Bank Version 7.1, Ministry Of Commerce &

Industry, Government of India.

Table 5 shows a product-wise (HS 4 digit) distribution of India’s dairy exports over the

period 2006-2017. India’s export share of milk and cream, not concentrated products,

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increased from 2.4 per cent in 2006 to 4 per cent in 2017 with a CAGR of 14 per cent.

Similarly, the export share of butter and other fats and oils, along with cheese and curd

products, increased from 11 per cent to 52 per cent and 2 per cent to 17 per cent, respectively,

in the same period with a CAGR of 24 per cent and 28 per cent, respectively. The export

share of milk and cream, concentrated (dairy products containing added sugar or other

sweeteners) (HS 0402), buttermilk, curdled milk and cream (e.g. fermented or acidified milk

and cream which may contain added sugar or other sweeteners, flavouring agents, fruits, nuts,

or cocoa) (HS 0403), and whey and other natural milk constituents (HS 0404) products

showed a declining trend. Their CAGR evinced a negative growth with the exception of

whey and other natural milk constituent products in the same period.

Table 5: Product-wise export share of the dairy products in India

HS

Codes Dairy Products 2006 2010 2014 2017 CAGR (%)

0401 Milk and cream, not concentrated 2.44 1.87 5.12 4.11 13.60

0402 Milk and cream, concentrated 78.81 43.83 59.84 25.24 -1.07

0403 Buttermilk, curdled milk and cream 1.10 0.74 0.20 0.84 6.33

0404 Whey and other natural milk constituents 4.43 1.94 0.06 0.28 -13.65

0405 Butter and other fats and oils 10.78 44.87 24.82 52.28 24.07

0406 Cheese and curd 2.44 6.74 9.97 17.25 28.02

Note: Authors own calculation. Sources: Export Import Data Bank Version 7.1, Ministry Of Commerce &

Industry, Government of India.

From the above table it is easily discernible that more than 50 per cent Indian exports hailed

from the butter and other fats and oils (e.g. butter, butter oil/ghee, dry spreads) (HS 0405)

category in 2017. This was followed by milk and cream, concentrated (HS 0402) (25 per

cent), cheese and curd (HS 0406) (17 per cent), and whey and other natural milk constituents

(HS 0404) (0.28 per cent); the latter’s export share was the lowest among all the dairy

products. In sum, the study concludes that there is a greater scope for enhancing the export of

some products including milk and cream, not concentrated, butter and other fats and oils and,

cheese and curd.

Table 6: Product-wise import share of the dairy sector in India

HS

Codes Dairy Products 2006 2010 2014 2017

CAGR

(%)

0401 Milk and cream, not concentrated 0.19 0.08 1.18 2.30 33.48

0402 Milk and cream, concentrated 7.71 52.40 14.99 10.02 10.88

0403 Buttermilk, curdled milk and cream 0.92 0.30 0.22 3.59 21.55

0404 Whey and other natural milk constituents 18.41 7.00 56.83 52.56 18.40

0405 Butter and other fats and oils 60.33 36.11 9.54 10.97 -5.88

0406 Cheese and curd 12.45 4.11 17.24 20.56 13.12

Note: Authors own calculation. Sources: Export Import Data Bank Version 7.1, Ministry Of Commerce &

Industry, Government of India.

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Table 6 shows the product-wise import distribution of four-digit HS dairy products over the

period 2006-2017 and its CAGR. In 2017, India imported more than 50 per cent whey

products followed by cheese and curd (HS 0406) (21 per cent), butter and other fats (HS

0405) (11 per cent), milk and cream, concentrated (HS 0402) (10 per cent), buttermilk,

curdled milk and cream (HS 0403) (4 per cent) and milk and cream, and not concentrated

(HS 0401 –dairy products without added sugar or other sweeteners) (2.3 per cent). The latter

registered the lowest import share out of the product groups. Overall, the data indicates that

the import share of all products increased over the period 2006-2017, except for butter and

other fats and oils.

The data shows the UAE to be one of the major markets for Indian dairy products. India’s

dairy exports to the UAE increased from US$ 14 million to US$ 32 million between 2006

and 2017; this comprises 15 per cent and 18 per cent share of the overall dairy trade with the

UAE for those periods (see Table 7). In the context of product details: India exported US$ 23

million butter and other fats to the UAE accounting for 72 per cent of dairy exports to the

latter in 2017. Out of the US$ 23 million, around US$ 19 million worth melted butter was

exported to the UAE, accounting for 59 per cent butter and other fats and oils.

Table 7: India’s export of dairy products to UAE

(Value in Million US$)

HS

Codes Dairy Products

2006 2010 2014 2017

Value Share (%) Value Share (%) Value Share (%) Value Share (%)

0401 Milk and cream, not

concentrated

0.37 2.6 0.36 1.7 0.66 2.2 0.51 1.6

0402 Milk and cream, concentrated 8.01 56.4 4.98 23.9 5.25 17.1 1.38 4.3

0403 Buttermilk, curdled milk and

cream

0.13 0.9 0.08 0.4 0.13 0.4 0.17 0.5

0404 Whey and other natural milk

constituents

0.02 0.1 0.16 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3

0405 Butter and other fats and oils 4.97 35 11.99 57.6 18.94 61.8 23.22 72.2

04051000 Butter 0.44 3.1 2.18 10.5 3.11 10.1 4.19 13

04059010 Butter Oil 0.0 0.0 1.27 6.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

04059020 Melted Butter 4.53 31.9 8.32 40 15.48 50.5 18.89 58.7

04059090 Other fats and oils derived

from milk

0.0 0.0 0.22 1.1 0.36 1.2 0.14 0.4

0406 Cheese and curd 0.71 5.0 3.25 15.6 5.67 18.5 6.79 21.1

Total 14.21 100 20.82 100 30.65 100 32.17 100

Note: Authors own calculation. Sources: Export Import Data Bank Version 7.1, Ministry Of Commerce &

Industry, Government of India.

It is interesting to note that the import share – along with the value of milk and cream,

concentrated (HS 0402) (dairy products containing added sugar or other sweeteners) –

relevant to the UAE drastically decreased over the study period, dropping to a mere 4.3 per

cent in 2017 from the earlier 56 per cent in 2006. At the same time, the import share as well

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as the value of both butter and other fats and oils (e.g. butter, butter oil/ghee, dry spreads)

(HS 0405), and cheese and curd (HS 0406) from India consistently increased over the same

period, accounting for more than 90 per cent of Indian dairy product imports into the UAE in

2017. This implies that India has demonstrated its strength in the production of these products

and that it has a sustainable market avenue for these products with regard to exporting them

to the UAE. The export share of milk and cream, not concentrated (the dairy products that do

not contain added sugar or other sweeteners) (HS 0401), buttermilk, curdled milk and cream

(e.g. fermented or acidified milk and cream which may contain added sugar or other

sweeteners, flavouring agents, fruits, nuts, or cocoa) (HS 0403), and whey and other natural

milk constituents (HS 0404) has more or less remained unchanged with some fluctuations

over the same period (see Table 7).

Table 8 shows India’s import of dairy products from France over the period 2006-2017.

Import of dairy products from France increased from US$ 2.37 million in 2006 to US$ 11.3

million in 2017. In other words, the imports more than doubled from 12 per cent in 2006 to

26 per cent in 2017 (see Table 4). It is evident that the share of whey and other natural milk

constituents (HS 0404) in total imports from France consistently increased from US$ 2.33

million (85 per cent) in 2006 to US$ 10 million (87 per cent) in 2017; 2010 was an exception

when it showed some decline. On the other hand, the share of cheese and curd (HS 0406)

declined during the same period, except in the year 2010. This means that in 2010 the import

share of whey protein was compensated by the cheese and curd group of dairy products.

Cheese is a flagship dairy product, especially in developed countries, including France. In

2015, the developed countries contributed to about 80 per cent of the world’s cheese

production, 75 per cent exports, and 48 per cent imports (Chatellier, 2017). During the

process of cheese making another important byproduct, whey, is generated. France, which is

one of the leading countries in the context of cheese manufacturing, also produces large

amounts of whey. A popular dairy product, cheese finds its way into domestic markets and in

other parts of the developed world unlike whey which, while improving its market presence

steadily, has limited market avenues. Given its nutrition rich characteristics, a large portion of

India’s population has been extensively opting for whey protein, mainly for body building

purposes and dietary supplements. A surging demand may be responsible for stimulating a

rise in whey imports from France. Apart from whey (HS 0404) and cheese (HS 0406), France

exported milk and cream, not concentrated (US$ 0.39 million), buttermilk, curdled milk and

cream (US$ 0.23 million) and milk and cream, and concentrated ( US$ 0.03 million) which

had the lowest value of all the dairy products imported from France in 2017.

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Table 8: India’s import of dairy products from France

(Value in Million US$)

HS

Codes Dairy Products

2006 2010 2014 2017

Value Share (%) Value Share (%) Value Share (%) Value Share (%)

0401 Milk and cream, not

concentrated 0.03 1.10 0.12 2.82 0.39 3.27 0.39 3.47

0402 Milk and cream, concentrated 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.71 0.03 0.25 0.03 0.27

0403 Buttermilk, curdled milk and

cream 0.03 1.10 0.18 4.24 0.04 0.34 0.23 2.04

0404 Whey and other natural milk

constituents 2.33 85.35 2.61 61.41 9.83 82.40 9.79 87.02

0405 Butter and other fats and oils 0.03 1.10 0.18 4.24 0.44 3.69 0.06 0.53

0406 Cheese and curd 0.31 11.36 1.13 26.59 1.20 10.06 0.75 6.67

Total 2.73 100 4.25 100 11.93 100 11.25 100

Note: Authors own calculation. Sources: Export Import Data Bank Version 7.1, Ministry Of Commerce & Industry,

Government of India.

4. COMPETITIVENESS OF INDIA’S DAIRY SECTOR

In this section, the study analyses the data sources and techniques used while measuring

competitiveness of the Indian dairy industry. The country-wise export and import data has

been culled from the World Integrated Trade Solutions (WITS) and the product-wise export-

import data from the Export Import Data Bank, Ministry of Commerce & Industry,

Government of India. The world per capita income and exchange rate has been taken from

the World Development Indicators (WDI). We discuss Nominal Protection Coefficient (NPC)

and Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) techniques for evaluating competitiveness.

4.1 Nominal Protection Coefficient (NPC)

While the competitiveness of any product/commodity can be measured in various ways, NPC

happens to be one of the popular measures (Gulati et al., 1990; Rakotoarisa and Gulati 2006;

Ohlan and Vedpal 2006; Ohlan 2010). It is defined as follows:

𝑁𝑃𝐶𝑖 = 𝑃𝑖

𝑑

𝑃𝑖𝑤

Where, 𝑁𝑃𝐶𝑖 is the nominal protection coefficient of the ith commodity, 𝑃𝑖𝑑 is the domestic

price of ith commodity, adjusted transportation cost in domestic market, and 𝑃𝑖𝑤 is the

international reference price of the ith commodity, adjusted transportation cost in the world

market. The studies mentioned above adjusted both domestic transport cost and the

international reference price. Hence, NPC shows the ratio of domestic price to the world

reference price while explaining the level of competitiveness of a particular commodity in the

world market. The present study estimates NPC under the exportable hypothesis and

compares the unit prices of exportable goods in India with the world unit price of those goods

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but is unable to adjust transportation cost in domestic and transportation cost in the world

markets (Rajarajan et al., 2007 and Kumar, 20109). Thus, the NPC formula is as follows.

𝑁𝑃𝐶𝑖 = 𝐼𝑛𝑑𝑖𝑎𝑖

𝑋

𝑊𝑜𝑟𝑙𝑑𝑖𝑋

Where 𝐼𝑛𝑑𝑖𝑎𝑖𝑋 is the export price of ith commodity in India and 𝑊𝑜𝑟𝑙𝑑𝑖

𝑋 is the export price of

the ith commodity in world.

𝐼𝑛𝑑𝑖𝑎𝑖𝑋 =

𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡 𝑉𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒𝑖

𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡 𝑄𝑢𝑎𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑡𝑦𝑖 , 𝑊𝑜𝑟𝑙𝑑𝑖

𝑋 = 𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡 𝑉𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒𝑖

𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡 𝑄𝑢𝑎𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑡𝑦𝑖

If 𝑁𝑃𝐶𝑖 < 1, implies that the export price of ith commodity in India is less than the export

price of ith commodity in the world, it implies that a particular product is competitive in the

world market. This means the commodity is unprotected and is obtainable in a free trade

scenario. If 𝑁𝑃𝐶𝑖 > 1, it implies that the export price of ith commodity in India is greater than

export price of the same commodity in the world. This ultimately means that the particular

commodity is less competitive in the world market (commodity is a protected item). We have

estimated NPC under the exportable hypothesis of various dairy products (HS 4 digit) as well

as overall dairy products to assess the degree of competitiveness of the Indian dairy industry

over the period 2001-2017; estimates of NPC are shown in Table 9. The value of NCP lies

between 2 to 1.1 for all dairy products over the study period, which confirms that Indian dairy

products clearly lack the requisite export competitiveness with the NPC value above unity.

The probable reasons for non-competitiveness of the Indian dairy industry, inter alia, may

firstly lie in the higher raw milk price due to the rising cost of input prices. Secondly, the cost

of milk processing and other transaction costs make Indian dairy products more expensive;

the export price of dairy products is higher compared to world prices. Thirdly, other countries

providing export (including input) subsidies make Indian dairy products look expensive in the

international markets. Fourthly, some of the non-tariff barriers to trade (NBT) like quality

issues, technical barriers, and so on in the context of exportable dairy products of India may

affect and hinder exports from the country.

Apart from the overall competitiveness of the dairy industry, we also estimated the individual

competitiveness of six major products using the NPC measure. The results are displayed on

Table 9. The values of NPC for milk and cream and not concentrated (HS 0401) products are

lower than the unity for most of the years from 2005 to 2015 with an exception in 2013,

implying that this product group was competitive in the world market during that period.

Nevertheless, its value remained more than unity for most of the years during the study

period 2001-2017 with few exceptions. This indicates that India is not competitive in the

same dairy product group.

9 We have taken value and quantity data from the World Integrated Trade Solutions (WITS). Trade value of

goods are given US$ and are Free on Board (or Freight on Board) prices.

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Table 9: Nominal Protection Coefficient

Year

HS Codes and Corresponding Dairy Products Category

All

Dairy

Products

0401

Milk and

cream, not

concentrated

0402

Milk and

cream,

concentrated

0403

Buttermilk,

curdled

milk and

cream

0404

Whey and

other

natural

milk

constituents

0405

Butter and

other fats

and oils

0406

Cheese

and curd

2001 3.118 0.809 1.407 2.479 1.357 0.926 1.248

2002 5.668 0.797 2.715 1.641 1.235 0.677 1.077

2003 1.999 0.910 1.800 1.703 1.132 0.448 1.170

2004 2.243 1.012 2.096 1.586 1.039 0.590 1.215

2005 0.874 0.865 1.520 1.838 0.859 0.564 1.077

2006 0.930 1.035 1.090 1.650 0.905 0.641 1.132

2007 0.778 1.144 2.072 1.739 0.964 0.735 1.302

2008 0.853 1.066 4.760 1.935 0.846 0.779 1.343

2009 0.974 1.065 1.054 1.221 1.163 0.628 1.223

2010 1.097 0.969 1.275 0.935 0.929 0.983 1.222

2011 0.743 0.853 1.702 2.026 0.953 0.701 1.153

2012 0.942 0.964 1.510 2.361 1.227 0.816 1.252

2013 1.457 1.023 4.351 1.590 1.066 1.621 1.802

2014 0.736 0.965 1.342 2.077 1.146 0.772 1.252

2015 1.304 1.127 1.020 2.756 1.546 0.970 1.711

2016 1.221 1.166 2.107 2.631 1.647 1.017 1.811

2017 1.447 1.281 1.850 2.805 1.149 1.075 2.048

Note: Authors own calculation. Sources: World Integrated Trade Solutions (WITS).

Similarly, for milk and cream and concentrated products (HS 0402), the NPC is less than

unity for a few years and greater than unity for the rest. This shows that milk and cream

concentrated products were competitive only for a few years. As far as the NPC of butter and

other fats and oils (HS 0403) is concerned, this product group was somewhat competitive

between 2005 and 2011, with the exception of 2009. During the rest of the period it was not

competitive. The NPC values of buttermilk, curdled milk, and cream (HS 0403) and whey

and other natural milk (HS 0404) products were above unity throughout the study period and

remained uncompetitive thereby. The results show that India is more competitive with regard

to exporting cheese and curd. Its comparative advantage is owed to the lower export price of

cheese and curd compared to the world export price. In sum, the results show that India

enjoys competitive advantage, to an extent, in terms of exporting cheese and curd.

4.2 Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA)

We have calculated the Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) proposed by Balassa

(1965) for measuring the degree of trade specialisation of a particular commodity. In the

event of the RCA’s being greater than unity for a country, then that country has a

comparative advantage in terms of exporting certain products. In other words, there is scope

for trade with the rest of the world in the context of a particular commodity. Balassa (1965)

RCA measure is as follows:

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𝑅𝐶𝐴𝑖𝑗 =

𝑋𝑖𝑗

𝑋𝑖𝑡𝑋𝑤𝑗

𝑋𝑤𝑡

Where, 𝑋𝑖𝑗

𝑋𝑖𝑡= India’s export share of product j over India’s total export in value term

𝑋𝑤𝑗

𝑋𝑤𝑡 = World’s export share of product j over World’s total export in value term

Where 𝑅𝐶𝐴𝑖𝑗 is the revealed comparative advantage index for India ‘i’ exporting product ‘j’,

𝑋𝑖𝑗 is the value of India’s export of products j, 𝑋𝑖𝑡 is the value of India’s total export, 𝑋𝑤𝑗 is

the value of world export of products j and 𝑋𝑤𝑡 is the value of world’s total export. The value

of the RCA’s being greater than unity confirms that India has a comparative advantage

regarding exporting commodity (j). In other words, India’s export share of product j exceeds

the world’s export share of product j. The RCA estimates are shown in Table 10.

The coefficient of RCA (Table 10) of all dairy products is less than unity, which implies that

India does not have any comparative advantage in the context of exporting dairy products.

This finding is consistent with those of Rajarajan et al. (2007). The estimation of product-

wise RAC indices for all four digit HS product groups was found to be less than unity,

suggesting that India does not enjoy a comparative advantage for exporting any or a

particular dairy product from its dairy product portfolio. The situation could be attributed to

various reasons. Firstly, India had been a net importer of dairy products till Operation Flood

began showing results. The country became the net exporter of dairy products, thanks to the

consistent rise of milk production. At the same time, there has been a trend of increasing

income levels in urban centres, where the demand for processed dairy products has gone up

leaving few surpluses for exports.

Table 10: Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA)

Year

401

Milk and

cream, not

concentrated

402

Milk and

cream,

concentrated

403

Buttermilk,

curdled

milk and

cream

404

Whey and

other natural

milk constit

405

Butter

and other

fats and

oils

406

Cheese

and curd All Dairy

Products

2001 0.001 0.531 0.005 0.109 0.210 0.004 0.182

2002 0.003 0.295 0.005 0.044 0.176 0.004 0.099

2003 0.005 0.232 0.026 0.039 0.141 0.007 0.080

2004 0.012 0.375 0.007 0.067 0.168 0.003 0.118

2005 0.018 1.013 0.008 0.135 0.275 0.010 0.292

2006 0.033 0.615 0.022 0.055 0.222 0.009 0.185

2007 0.042 0.482 0.192 0.198 0.271 0.015 0.190

2008 0.049 0.748 0.046 0.108 0.725 0.033 0.290

2009 0.036 0.245 0.003 0.022 0.340 0.018 0.100

2010 0.018 0.197 0.007 0.035 0.319 0.018 0.096

2011 0.032 0.028 0.010 0.006 0.309 0.015 0.051

2012 0.043 0.258 0.006 0.011 0.271 0.024 0.112

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2013 0.025 1.091 0.033 0.005 0.262 0.023 0.346

2014 0.056 0.458 0.005 0.001 0.270 0.030 0.181

2015 0.028 0.165 0.005 0.000 0.344 0.035 0.094

2016 0.022 0.173 0.012 0.002 0.308 0.044 0.097

2017 0.037 0.128 0.017 0.005 0.430 0.048 0.108

Note: Authors own calculation. Sources: World Integrated Trade Solutions (WITS).

Secondly, credit for the vast increment in milk production goes to millions and millions of

small holder dairy farmers who produce small amounts of milk individually, unlike large-

sized commercial farms in the developed world that produce milk in bulk. The large number

of smaller herds renders quality audits difficult. Hence, India’s dairy products are unable to

capture the international market because of quality concerns from the importing countries.

Additionally, antibiotics are used indiscriminately without the monitoring and maintenance of

withdrawal periods. In order to assure consumer safety and maintain export-driven high

quality dairy products, raw milk needs to be regularly analysed to detect the presence of

antibiotic residues (Priyanka et al., 2017). Finally, India has a limited dairy product profile

for exporting its dairy products with limited access to regions including South Asia and

Middle East.

4.3 Assessing the Impact of the Exchange Rate and World Income on Dairy Exports

In this section, we employed the autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) to examine the

determinants of dairy exports using annual data over the period 1988-2017. In order to

examine the objective, we estimated the following equation.

𝑙𝑛𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡𝑡 = 𝛼 + 𝛽1𝑙𝑛𝑤𝑝𝑐𝑡 + 𝛽2𝐸𝑅𝑡 + 𝛽3𝐸𝑈𝑃𝑡 + 𝛽4𝐷2001 + 𝜀𝑡 (1)

Where, lnexportt is the natural logarithm of India’s dairy export to total India’s export, ERt

is the exchange rate, Rupee per US$, EUPt is the export unit price of India’s dairy products

over world export unit price of dairy products, and D2001 is the dummy variable for removal

of trade restrictions relevant to the Indian dairy trade. We estimated the equation (1) using the

ARDL model and estimates are shown in Table 11.

Table 11 :Long Run Coefficient of ARDL (1,1,1,1,1)

Variable Coefficients Std. Error

ln (World Per Capita Income) 30.018*** 7.265

Exchange Rate (Rs/US$) 0.285*** 0.080

Export Unit Price/World export price -8.388*** 2.163

Dummy 2001 (Removal of dairy trade

restriction for India) 0.454 0.634

Note: Dependent variable: ln (Dairy export/total export). In this regression, we include time and a constant term.

F-statistic = 4.612 shows that there exists a long-term relationship between the variables. ***, ** and * denotes

the 1%, 5% and 10% level of significant.

The coefficient of world per capita income is positive and significant; this implies a higher

demand for Indian dairy products due to increased world per capita income. The coefficient

of the exchange rate is positive and significant, which is a theoretically correct sign. The

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results confirm that lower export prices of Indian dairy products for foreign buyers means an

increased export demand for Indian dairy products. Therefore, we conclude that exchange

rate plays a significant role in enhancing dairy exports from India. Results also show that the

coefficient of the 2001 dummy is positive and insignificant implying that trade liberalisation

has increased dairy exports but not enhanced dairy trade significantly. In addition, the results

show that the coefficient of unit export price to world unit export price of dairy is negative

and significant, implying that the higher export price of Indian dairy products adversely

affects dairy exports.

5. CONCLUSION AND DISCUSSION

In this study, we examined the trade performance and competitiveness of the Indian dairy

products. Based on our analysis, we concluded the following: The results confirm that India

is a minor player in the international market for dairy products. This is because the share of

India’s exports, in terms of percentage of the total world dairy trade, has increased only

marginally from 0.1 per cent in 2001 to 0.2 per cent in 2016. The import share, too, has

increased slightly –from a paltry 0.018 per cent to 0.063 per cent - concomitantly (see tables

1 and 2). The results also indicate that while India became a net exporter of dairy products

from 2000 onwards, exports remained volatile and even dipped below imports in the year

2010-11, probably due to milk production fluctuating. This suggests that its reliability as a

supplier of milk products to the world is a cause for concern. Export destinations like South

Asia, the Middle East, and South East Asia are the major markets for India’s dairy products.

India has been importing largely from the developed nations, Nepal being one exception.

Apart from overall dairy trade performance, we also evaluated the products-wise trade

performance of dairy products. Our data shows that from its total Indian dairy exports, India

sent out around half of the country’s butter and other fats and oils followed by milk and

cream, concentrated (25 percent), cheese and curd (17 percent), and whey and other natural

milk constituents (0.18 percent). The latter constituted the smallest portion of all the dairy

exports (see Table 5). India primarily imported whey and other natural milk, followed by

cheese and curd (21 percent), butter and other fats, and oils (11 percent), and milk and cream,

not concentrated (2.3 percent) in 2017. The data also confirmed the UAE as a favourable

market for Indian dairy products; India exported around 18 per cent of its dairy products to

the UAE in the same year. On the other hand, France emerged as one of the most favourable

sources for dairy imports with India having purchased more than one-fourths of its dairy

products from that country. An interesting finding of the study was that India exported

around 72 per cent of butter and other fat, and oils to the UAE while it imported around 87

per cent whey and other natural milk constituents from France in 2017. This means that much

of its dairy-related international trade occurs with one country, the UAE as far as exports are

concerned while it depends on France for imports with regard to some products. Reliance on

a limited number of countries for international trade invites certain risks given the changing

contours of the foreign market. The risks may be minimised by keeping a close eye on

changing business conditions in the global context, generally speaking, with particular focus

on relevant countries. We have also evaluated the competitiveness of the Indian dairy

industry as a whole along with product-wise competitiveness aided by the NPC and RCA for

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the period 2001-2016. The NPC coefficient reveals that the Indian dairy industry is, generally

speaking, not competitive enough in terms of exporting dairy products to the world. One

reason could be attributed to export prices of dairy products having exceeded world export

price. Nevertheless, India is relatively competitive in terms of exporting cheese and curd. The

export prices of both are lower compared to those of the world export price. Similarly, the

RCA coefficient reveals that India does not enjoy comparative advantage in terms of

exporting dairy products. We have also analysed the major determinants of dairy exports for

India. The results based on ARDL estimates assert that the world per capita income is one of

the key determinants responsible for increasing dairy exports, while the exchange rate also

plays a significant role in enhancing dairy exports. The results also show that the higher unit

price of dairy products adversely affects dairy exports, while removing trade restrictions can

increase dairy exports to some extent. We conclude that scope exists for enhancing the

performance of the Indian dairy industry pertinent to international trade by focussing harder

on the production of cost-effective and quality dairy products, strengthening international co-

operation and policy dialogues to restrict export (including input) subsidies provided by the

developed countries and negotiating against the non-tariff and technical barriers to dairy

trades, and promoting clean milk production and improved traceability with the help of

technological interventions. These are some of the steps towards cutting through international

dairy trade rivalry.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

The authors are thankful to the Verghese Kurien Centre of Excellence (VKCoE) at Institute

of Rural Management (IRMA), Gujarat, India, for providing support to undertake this study.

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