Workforce Planning Guidebook_Final Draft 21Dec

7/31/2019 Workforce Planning Guidebook_Final Draft 21Dec

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Infohrm Pty LtdACN 104 375 180

Tel +61 7 3320 3200Fax +61 7 3368 3777

[email protected]

Edith Cowan

University

Guidebook DRAFT

Workforce

Planning

23 December 2006

Contact:Wendy Morison, Senior Consultant

Tel 07 3320 3200 Fax 07 3368 3777email: [email protected]

www.infohrm.com

INFORMATION INSIGHT
mailto:[email protected]://www.infohrm.com/mailto:[email protected]://www.infohrm.com/


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Edith Cowan UniversityWorkforce Planning Guidebook DRAFT

4 2006 Infohrm Pty Ltd


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Introduction

In October-November 2006, Infohrm facilitated a series of workforce planning workshops

with the ECU project team, ECU HR staff and representatives from each of the Schools

and Business Units taking part in the project.

This guidebook (in conjunction with the workshop material and other resources provided

by the ECU project team) is designed to assist Heads of School and Business Units in the

workforce planning process as it is undertaken throughout the University.

What is Workforce Planning?

Workforce planning considers beyond a 12 month timeframe, and focuses on critical

workforce issues at various levels:

Trends

Roles

Regions

Schools

Programmes

Workforce planning ensures workforce strategies:

Address highest priority issues

Are linked to business directions

Are integrated

Focus resources/action/effort to areas of greatest risk and greatest opportunity

Workforce Planning is not

The panacea for all workforce issues

A projection tool that will tell you what your demand is

Something that is done once and forgotten about a box to tick

A report to go on a shelf

Something done by HR

The way to fill vacancies today

Resource planning or budgeting or establishments planning

Analysis of every role and workforce issue across the organisation

A perfect prediction of future workforce needs (especially numbers)

2006 Infohrm Pty Ltd 5


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Workforce Planning at ECU the Guidebook

This guidebook details each of the steps in the ECU Workforce Planning Framework (see

below). Definitions, data inputs, tips, techniques and points to remember are provided

for the core steps in the process.

A separate attachment contains Excel templates for:

Demand forecasting

Supply forecasting

Gap analysis

Capability analysis

These templates are designed to be flexible, and should be updated or changed over

time to meet the diverse workforce planning requirements of the Schools and Business

Units in ECU.

Review decisions for

equity impacts on profile

Align with individualcareer paths and career

development.

Implement strategies forretention of corporate

knowledge.

Load

Projections

Identify changes to staff

work patterns andpriorities/skills sets

Workforce Planning @ECUIdentify staffing needs and desired profile

based on student/client demand / programme needs

Analyse existing supply of staff/Nos and skills

Identify Gaps and Oversupply challenges

Develop strategies to deliver the required outcomesAnnual review of profile against strategies

and strategic priorities

Align with individual

career paths and careerdevelopment.

Identify need to re-deploy and

adjust workforce in areas of

reduced increased demand

Identify extent of change

management activities as

required to align staff profile

Identify Gaps and

Opportunities.

Analyse external factors such

as labour market competitionand institutional requirements

Retention risks and need to b uildnew capability or grow existing.

Demographics of profile &succession issues

Review existing staffprofile and capability by

programme/service area

Recruit against new

required staffcharacteristics

Implement strategies for

organisational renewaland future organisational

capability

Develop Planning

Scenarios Optimistic

/Pessimistic

Use scenarios based on loadplanning projections to project

future workforce requirements/staff profiles

Future plans and anticipated

demand for Services,

Programmes, Products




development.


knowledge.


knowledge.

Load

Projections

Load

Projections

Identify changes to staff

work patterns andpriorities/skills sets








career paths and careerdevelopment.










Identify Gaps and

Opportunities.



Retention risks and need to b uildnew capability or grow existing.




Recruit against new

required staffcharacteristics


organisational renewaland future organisational

capability

Develop Planning

Scenarios Optimistic

/Pessimistic

Use scenarios based on loadplanning projections to project

future workforce requirements/staff profiles









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1. Demand Side

What is an Environmental Scan?

Environmental scanning is an important enabling part of the future scoping process, and

integral to workforce planning. It provides valuable contextualised information and aims

to:

Identify the driving forces behind business problems

Identify internal and external business drivers

Learn about your business goals, plans, strategies, issues

Learn what we know about the future and what we dont know

Identify key stakeholders

Identify linked projects

Identify and understand the current shape of the workforce, both internal and

external and how this impacts on future workforce needs

What is Scenario Planning?

Scenario planning assumes that the future can not be predicted and recognises that

there is no enduring best way or one way to do things. Scenarios tell the story of how

the future might look, what will impact on the business and how the business will

position itself. Scenarios are:

Thinking tools

Forecasting devices

Future focussed Considering plausible futures


Load Projections

Future plans and anticipated demand for

Services, Programmes, Products

Develop planning scenarios Optimistic and

Pessimistic

Use scenarios based on load planning

projections to project future workforce

requirements/staff profiles

Environmental Scan

ScenarioPlanning

DemandForecastin

g


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Bridging the gap between intuition and fact



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Scenario Planning Process

Step Activity

1 Define/Identify the issues and business drivers

2 Stakeholder identification and engagement

3 Identify pre-determined and key uncertainties

4 Cluster drivers into logical groups

5 Classify drivers and issues according to relative impact

6 Classify drivers and issues according to uncertainty/predictability

7 Construct scenarios check for internal consistency

8 Eliminate non-plausible outcomes

9 Check with stakeholders business leaders for validity

10 Finalise scenarios

What is Demand Forecasting?

Addresses the question: what type/s of people are needed to achieve our business

objectives, and how many of them do we need? Demand forecasting:

Must be integrated with strategic and business plans

Can only ever be an approximate science

Should be based on at least two of the most likely future scenarios Involves forecasting of job roles as well as numbers.

Job role framework

For Schools: by Level, and then by Programme

For Business Units: utilise ASCO codes or existing framework

Important to remember that the job role framework forms the basis of the workforce

profile analysis and supply forecast need to ensure workforce data is available for

the job roles identified, and that the level of confidence in the data is sufficient.

Having a job role framework also facilitates meaningful conversations when

collecting qualitative information during interviews or discussions with Heads of

School, other stakeholders and the Executive.

Forecasting Demand

Confirm the current FTEs

Consider the implications of the Scenarios and student projections Determine the FTEs against each occupational group for each scenario



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Determine any changes to occupational groups or disciplines or skills

Record the details on the Demand Forecasting Template provided

Demand Side Inputs Demand Side Outputs

Environmental Scan

Operational Plans

Student load projections

Population profile

Information relating to services, systems,

technology, competition or partnerships,

political environment

Scenario Planning Summary of environmental scan

information

Common Variables from ECU perspective

Individual Variables for each

School/Business Unit

Demand Forecasting

Scenarios

Job role framework

Current FTE by job role

Environmental Scan

Summary report

Scenario Planning

2 scenarios Optimistic (UPside) andPessimistic (DOWNside) per

School/Business Unit

Demand Forecasting

School/Business Unit-specific demand

forecast by job role (and

programme/service where relevant)

Points to Remember

Seek input from, and consult with, key stakeholders from the beginning

Dont re-invent the wheel access environmental scanning information made

available internally through HR.

Monitor the assumptions underlying the Scenarios to see which is unfolding, or which

set of new conditions is emerging so you can assess their implications.

It is important to get the job role framework right both from a system/reporting

aspect and being meaningful to the workforce planners.

Forecasting is not an exact science dont get stuck on the numbers.

While all jobs are important, more time should be spent planning for job roles that

are first priority for workforce planning, i.e. are critical for ECU refer slide 17,

Workshop 1 for more detail on identifying critical job roles.



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Analysis Element Example Data

Salary benchmarking information

What is Capability Assessment?

Workforce capability refers to the skills or abilities of employees. Capability assessment

is a process of investigating the current workforce skill set, as well as the skill set

required in the future. Future skill sets are considered with the Scenarios and new

business direction of ECU in mind.

ECUs Professional Development team has developed an ECU Capability Framework

that serves as an excellent resource for the capability assessment

Templates for assessing (and presenting) the capability assessment are provided in the

Guidebook Attachment.

What is External Supply?

In addition to internal business drivers of change, the external labour market will

experience change effects associated with emergent demographic, technological and

social trends. In particular, population ageing, changing workforce participation trends,

educational preferences, low fertility rates and workforce shortages are changing the

configuration of the workforce; as well as leading to the expansion of competition for

talent as the pool of qualified labour shrinks.

These trends are of concern as the availability of a quality workforce is a key issue for

ECU further compounding the need for an integrated and aligned approach to future

workforce needs.

Sources of external supply information include:

Environmental Scan conducted in first stage

Australian Bureau of Statistics

Department of Employment and Workplace Relations

Department of Education, Science and Training

Productivity Commission

Professional bodies and industry associations, e.g. Australian Council of Deans of

Education Incorporated, National Centre for Vocational Education Research,

Graduate Careers Australia

What is Supply Forecasting?



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Utilising workforce profile trend data, supply forecasting projects the effect of natural

attrition employee-initiated turnover and retirements on the workforce over time. It

helps workforce planners to understand the level of replacement that may be required

just to maintain current staffing levels, and shows the impact of the ageing workforce

and potential retirements. It also shows the impact of staff turnover (resignations)

trends if they remain at historical levels.

Supply forecasting assumes no replacement or recruitment initiatives are undertaken

in the forecast period. It instead projects a pure picture of who would remain in the

workforce based on historical retirements and turnover.

When matched with demand forecasts, the supply forecasts show potential gaps

shortages or surpluses in the workforce, and identifies areas where targeted

workforce management strategies are needed.



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Forecasting Supply

Net Supply = Current Workforce [Retirements + Separations]

Examine turnover data and determine turnover rate to be applied by job role or

programme/service or School/Business Unit

Calculate the number of people reaching retirement age in the forecast period

Record the details on the Supply Forecasting Template provided

Supply Forecast Inputs Supply Forecast Outputs

Current FTE

must be the same data used forthe current FTE in the demand forecast

Retirement age trends (from the last 12

months to 3 years)

used to apply the assumed

retirement age for the forecast

Date of birth (or age) of each FTE in the

current framework

used to determine the number of

retirements in the forecast period

based on assumed retirement age

Resignation rate trends (from the last 12

months to 3 years)

used to apply the assumed

turnover rate for the forecast

School/Business Unit-specific supply

forecast by job role (andprogramme/service where relevant)

Points to Remember

Demand and supply forecasting can be conducted concurrently and then matched

for gap analysis.

Ensure the turnover data excludes retirements

Apply the historical retirement age to your supply forecast, but also consider

alternative ages, e.g. is there a large cohort of staff in the age bracket just below



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historical retirement age.

Where sample size does not allow for reliable job role, service or programme level

retirement or turnover data, move to the School level, or University level.



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Align Existing Workforce

What is Gap Analysis?

Forecasts of demand and internal supply are compared to provide a picture of your

School/Business Units staffing surpluses and deficits, under both Scenarios.

Gap = Supply Demand

Workforce gaps for the forecast period need to be assessed in three areas:

1. Numbers shortages/surplus in the number of staff by job role

2. Job roles job roles that will exist and no longer be required and job roles that willhave significant shortages

3. Skills skills of the workforce that will become obsolete or de-emphasised during

the forecast period, skills that arent available in the workforce today but will be

needed in the future and skills that will be in oversupply in future (if re-training is

not undertaken to address this).

When the gaps have been identified, these need to be collated with the drivers, issues,

analyses and rationale from which the forecast has been derived.


Workforce

Alignment

Identify need to re-deploy and adjust

workforce in areas of reduced/increased

demand

Identify changes to staff work patterns

and priorities/skills sets

Identify extent of change management

activities as required to align staff profile

GapAnalysis

Align with individual career paths and

career developmentCareer

Orientation


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Refer to the gap analysis template for tabular and graphical examples of presenting the

gap.



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Points to Remember

When assessing the gap, ask yourself:

Where are the surpluses/shortages?

Which are significant?

What is driving the shortage/surplus? Growth, resignations, retirements?

Is the gap bigger when you consider skill changes or external supply?

What is Workforce Alignment?

Aligning the staff profile to manage shortages or surpluses can be a considerable task to

undertake. The objective is to identify a suitable and financially viable staff profile for

the School or Business Unit going forward and identifying strategies for how that profile

might be achieved.

By design, the workforce interventions and strategies that emerge from this activity will

involve a transformational element. These interventions have the capacity to

restructure your organisations workforce, architecture, routines and culture, and

therefore the workforce planner may, at the level of the individual and/or the

organisation, encounter resistance.

Each School or Business Unit may wish to use the following outline for their workforceplanning project change and communication strategy:

Summary Key Players

Why are we doing it?

How will this support the strategicplan/business goals?

Who is driving it?

What is the specific outcome soughtfrom workforce planning?

What are the expected benefits?

What is the nature of the potentialimpact on our people?

What are the timeframes? Key timings Project milestones

Who will be directly involved?

Which business areas are responsiblefor coordination/implementation? Who will be managing the process

elements? Who has responsibility and authority

Who are the owners/key stakeholdersand how will you work with them?

What are the interdependencies withother projects and business areas?

Who are the change agents supportingthe change?

What are their roles?

What areas will be impacted and how?

How will we support our people throughthe change?

Communication and Consultation Project Management andEnhancement

Who is the audience? Risk assessment.



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Key messages for audience segments

Who will send the messages

How will the message/s becommunicated (media type, frequency,mode of delivery)?

What are the risks? What can go wrong if we implement

poorly?

What is the potential forimprovements/enhancement in thefuture?

How do we consolidate the change?

How will we evaluate theimplementation process?

How will we monitor and feedbackresults?

What is Career Orientation?

In conjunction with workforce alignment, workforce planners will need to consider the

career paths and career development of their current staff, and ultimately, their new

recruits.

In recent years there have been significant changes in the nature of work and careers in

organisations. The notion of one employer and indeed one job for life, has given way to

the notion of individuals pursuing multiple careers. Narrow career paths have given way

to more broadly based career paths.

Some of the changing career patterns to emerge are:

Old Pattern New Pattern

Job Security expectation of ajob for life in the same

organisation

Employability security maintaining skills so that youare always employable but not necessarily in the

same job or in the same organisation

Single job/career expectation

that you would have the same

job label all your working life

Multiple jobs/careers may have a number of careers

as learning continues e.g. may train as a nurse, then

as a psychologist, then as a business analyst

Longitudinal career paths

assumption that each move

would be an upwardspromotion

Alternative career paths with flatter organisation

structures, a career change may involve lateral

moves rather than vertical

Job/person fit recruitment to a

specific job

Person/organisation fit the current move is to

recruit people whose values fit the organisation in

addition to skills fitting them for the job

Career success was the only

criteria of success

Work/family balance people choose to work in less

demanding roles to spend more time with their

families.

Academic degree assumption

that a degree was all that was

needed

Continuous relearning academic degrees date

and it is now necessary to continually upgrade ideas

and knowledge



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Full time employment careers

were considered as a job

Alternative employment employment may be in the

form of two of more part-time roles

Points to Remember

There are four distinct phases that can be used in career planning:

Where am I now? Assess your personal strengths, weaknesses, preferences,

career values and desires.

Checking what I believe about myself against reality. Determine how

others assess your strengths, weaknesses and potential; assess the environment

and its constraints on possible careers.

Where do I want to be? Select and formulate possible career goals based on

data generated during the previous two steps.

How will I get there? Develop and execute an action plan to reach career

goals (i.e. vertically or laterally)

Implement and Review

What is Strategy Development?

HR strategy can be established at many levels, for example:

Sector or industry level: assessing skills and numbers needed for

occupational groups and ensure infrastructure in place to supply these

Corporate level: organisational improvements and core businessdeliverables directly influence workforce demand projections


StrategyImplementa

tion

Recruit against new required staff

characteristics

Implement strategies for retention of

corporate knowledge

Implement strategies for organisational

renewal and future organisational capability

StrategyDevelopment

Review decisions for equity impacts on

profileReview


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Business unit level: the process ensures managers develop workforce

objectives and strategies in conjunction with their core business planning

Within the HR Branch: the workforce objectives and strategies from

business units are aggregated for input into the HR Strategic Plan

Workforce planning focuses on making decisions that will have the most impact.

Strategy development should take the scenarios and alternative forecasts into

account, and focus on the significant issues, that is:

Critical job roles

Significant capability or skills gaps

Sizeable staff deficit or surplus

High turnover or retirements in key roles

Noteworthy workforce trends, e.g. workforce ageing, gender imbalance.

Less significant issues may be:

High turnover in roles that are easy to recruit to

High turnover in an area that will be reducing in size in the future

Issues that affect only a few staff (this is a role for line managers)

There are a multitude of frameworks and processes for strategy development

available to ECU. Two examples are provided below.



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PARC Taxonomy

The PARC taxonomy People, Architecture, Routines, and Culture (Roberts,

20041), offers a framework around which to structure strategy development initiatives.

To use this framework, think about the environmental context within which the

School/Business Unit operates (refer information gathered in Environmental Scan and

Scenario Development), then consider what strategies need to be developed to move

the School/Business Unit from its current state to the desired future state in the

forecast time period.

It is useful to think about the current and future state in terms of people, architecture

(e.g. organisational structure or job design), routines (policies and processes) and

culture. Then, list the strategies that exist today and consider how they impact or

relate to each category people, architecture, routines and culture. Consider how

existing strategies need to be adjusted or if new strategies are required to move any

component of the PARC model closer to how School/Business Unit wants to look and

operate in the future.

The Six Bs

Ulrichs Six Bs 2, provides a useful architecture around which to develop a full-range of

talent management response options. The Six Bs can be used to develop a menu of

choices, around which to frame people strategies.Buy acquire new talent by recruiting individuals from outside ECU or from other areas

within ECU

Borrow partner with consultants, vendors, customers or suppliers outside the

organisation to garner new ideas

Build train or develop talent through education, formal job training, job rotation, job

assignments and action learning

Boost fast track the career advancement of high performers

Bind retain the most talented employees

Bounce remove low-performing or underperforming individuals

What is Strategy Implementation?

After strategies have been agreed, they need to be expanded into actions and

implemented, to complete the workforce planning process. The following steps are

simple, but form a solid basis for strategy implementation:

1 Roberts, J. (2004). The modern firm: Organizational design for performance and growth.Oxford University Press: UK

2 Ulrich, Dave (2005), The HR Value Proposition, Australian Institute of Management PresentationSydney



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List the activities that need to be undertaken to action the strategy

Prioritise activities

Assign responsibility for completing the activities

Agree a timeframe for completing each activity and the overall strategy

Allocate budget to activities for completion of the strategy

Establish key performance indicators to measure the effectiveness of the strategy

Why Review?

Because workforce planning is an ongoing process linked to the organisations annual

business planning cycle, the workforce plan, like any business strategy, needs to be

regularly reviewed and updated as and when required. Your operating environment can

change quickly rendering previous assumptions and analysis redundant. For this reason

key assumptions, business drivers and issues identified as significant in yourenvironmental scanning, analysis and scenario development activities need to be

regularly reviewed and reassessed.

A formal review should also be undertaken at the same time, for example, as your

organisations six monthly report on performance or in accordance with the Universitys

business strategy reporting arrangements. In particular you should:

Monitor scenarios to establish whether the assumptions upon which the scenarios

were based have changed

Keep abreast of external trends and changes that may significantly affect workforce

supply

Keep abreast of internal changes (e.g. restructures, priority changes) that may affect

workforce strategy, supply or demand.

In response, strategies may need to be refined to account for any significant changes to

the Universitys operating context. You should also regularly monitor the success or

otherwise of your workforce strategies. Some strategy elements may not be delivering

the successes hoped for and may need to be realigned, adjusted or dropped.

Points to Remember

Developing strategies and planning actions is about focusing on doing the thingsthat will have the most significant positive impact.



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By focusing attention on the critical dimensions of the School/Business Units

workforce gaps, a solid return on workforce investment will be realised.

Strategies are best developed with the input of key stakeholders under the guidance

of HR.

Determine the priorities what can be addressed in the shorter term (quick wins)?

What will take longer?




development.


knowledge.

Load

Projections

Identify changes to staffwork patterns and

priorities/skills sets








career paths and career

development.




Identify extent of changemanagement activities as


Identify Gaps and

Opportunities.



Retention risks and need to build

new capability or grow existing.




Recruit against newrequired staff

characteristics


organisational renewal

and future organisationalcapability

Develop Planning

Scenarios Optimistic/Pessimistic

Use scenarios based on load

planning projections to project

future workforce requirements/

staff profiles

Future plans and anticipateddemand for Services,





development.


knowledge.


knowledge.

Load

Projections

Load

Projections

Identify changes to staffwork patterns and

priorities/skills sets








career paths and career

development.








Identify Gaps and

Opportunities.



Retention risks and need to build

new capability or grow existing.




Recruit against newrequired staff

characteristics


organisational renewal

and future organisationalcapability

Develop Planning

Scenarios Optimistic/Pessimistic

Use scenarios based on load

planning projections to project

future workforce requirements/

staff profiles





Documents

Workforce Planning Guidebook_Final Draft 21Dec