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WISE M NEYA Weekly Update from SMC
(For private circulation only)
4TH NOVEMBER GURU NANAK JAYANTI
( Guru Nanak came to redeem the Kalyug )
Kal Taaran Gur Naanak Aaiaa!!
2017: Issue 603, Week: 30th October - 02nd November
Bra
nd s
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427
Disclaimer : This communication is based upon the information provided by the developer. It does not constitute personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation or need of an individual client or corporate/s or any entity/s. Neither SMC Real Estate Advisors Private Limited nor any of its affiliates, associates, representatives, directors or employees shall be responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person due to any action taken on the basis of this document. All investments are subjective to market risk. The person should use his/her own judgment while taking investment decisions. All disputes shall be subjective to the exclusive jurisdiction of courts at Delhi. * T&C Apply, 1 Sq Mtr. = 10.764 sq ft"
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From The Desk Of Editor
(Saurabh Jain)
SMC Global Securities Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “SMC”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and its associate is member of MCX stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and NSDL. Its associates merchant banker and Portfolio Manager are registered with SEBI and NBFC registered with RBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor.
SMC has applied with SEBI for registering as a Research Entity in terms of SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, 2014. SMC or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing /dealing in securities Market.
SMC or its associates including its relatives/analyst do not hold any financial interest/beneficial ownership of more than 1% in the company covered by Analyst. SMC or its associates and relatives does not have any material conflict of interest. SMC or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation from the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. The subject company has not been a client of SMC during the past twelve months. SMC or its associates has not received any compensation or other benefits from the company covered by analyst or third party in connection with the research report. The Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of company covered by Analyst and SMC has not been engaged in market making activity of the company covered by Analyst.
The views expressed are based solely on information available publicly available/internal data/ other reliable sources believed to be true.
SMC does not represent/ provide any warranty express or implied to the accuracy, contents or views expressed herein and investors are advised to independently evaluate the market conditions/risks involved before making any investment decision.
n the week gone by, global stock markets witnessed mixed trends with a batch of
company results sparking profit-taking, combination of robust economic data and Iswirling speculation over who will next lead the Federal Reserve. European stocks
moved higher after the European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi said that the
bank would reduce monthly bond purchases to 30 billion euros ($35 billion) from 60 billion
euros starting in January and there won't be any sudden end to buying. ECB chief also
indica1ted that the program is flexible enough to adjust its size. Some profit taking was
seen in the Japanese markets as investors locked gains after Shinzō Abe's ruling coalition
has won a clear majority with more than two-thirds of Parliament's 465 seats.
Manufacturing activity in Japan expanded in October at a slower pace than the previous
month, a preliminary gauge of activity showed.
Back at home, domestic markets rallied over the week and closed with significant gains on
Friday over last week's close. Indian stock markets made yet other life highs on the back of
two major announcements by the government to recapitalize banks and one of the largest
highways construction project named as “Bharatmala Project”. The bank recapitalisation
plan includes issue of recapitalisation bonds worth Rs. 1.35 trillion , Rs. 76,000 crore will be
raised through budgetary allowances and fundraising by the banks from the capital
markets. The road building program for 83,677 kilometers of roads, involves capex of Rs
6.92 lakh crore over next 5 years.
On the commodity market front, bullion counter is likely to witness short covering at lower
levels and factors such as movement of dollar index and geo-politics tensions in North Korea
are likely to give further direction to the prices. In base metal counter, upside momentum is
expected to persist in Aluminium and Zinc while Copper and Nickel can witness profit
booking at higher levels. Crude oil may remain on strong note but profit booking at higher
levels cannot be denied. According to EIA “U.S. production rebounded after a week when
Hurricane Nate shut in most offshore production Refinery crude runs rose by 586,000
barrels per day”. Refinery utilization rates rose by 3.3 percentage points. Oil prices have
seen an uptrend in the last couple of weeks as Saudi reiterated its commitment to output
cuts. Russia suggested that the compliance to OPEC cuts has touched 102%. Meanwhile,
outcome of China manufacturing PMI, China Caixin services PMI, US fed interest rate
decision, US Chicago PMI and ISM manufacturing PMI, factory orders, nonfarm payroll and
unemployment data to give further direction to the prices.
Contents
Equity 4-7
Derivatives 8-9
Commodity 10-13
Currency 14
IPO 15
FD Monitor 16
Mutual Fund 17
SMC GLOBAL SECURITIES LTD.
REGISTERED OFFICES:
11 / 6B, Shanti Chamber, Pusa Road, New Delhi 110005.
Tel: 91-11-30111000, Fax: 91-11-25754365
MUMBAI OFFICE:
Lotus Corporate Park, A Wing 401 / 402 , 4th Floor ,
Graham Firth Steel Compound, Off Western Express Highway,
Jay Coach Signal, Goreagon (East) Mumbai - 400063
Tel: 91-22-67341600, Fax: 91-22-67341697
KOLKATA OFFICE:
18,Rabindra Sarani, Poddar Court, Gate No-4,5th Floor, Kolkata-700001
Tel : 91-33-39847000 Fax No : 91-33-39847004
AHMEDABAD OFFICE :
10/A, 4th Floor, Kalapurnam Building, Near Municipal Market,
C G Road, Ahmedabad-380009, Gujarat
Tel : 91-79-26424801 - 05, 40049801 - 03
CHENNAI OFFICE:
Salzburg Square, Flat No.1, III rd Floor, Door No.107, Harrington Road,
Chetpet, Chennai - 600031.
Tel: 044-39109100, Fax -044- 39109111
SECUNDERABAD OFFICE:
206, 3rd Floor, above CMR Exclusive, Bhuvana Towers, S.D.Road,
Secunderabad - 500003
Tel: 91-40-30780298/99, 39109536
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PO Box 117210, Dubai, UAE
Tel: 97145139780 Fax : 97145139781
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NEW YORK OFFICE:
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Second Floor, New York, NY 10105
Phone: (212) 878-3684
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Fax: (866) 852-4236
Printed and Published on behalf of
Mr. Saurabh Jain @ Publication Address
11/6B, Shanti Chamber, Pusa Road, New Delhi-110005
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Investor Grievance : [email protected]
Printed at: S&S MARKETING102, Mahavirji Complex LSC-3, Rishabh Vihar, New Delhi - 110092 (India)
Ph.: +91-11- 43035012, 43035014, Email: [email protected]
NEWS
DOMESTIC NEWSEconomy• ·The government announced a capital infusion of ̀ 2.11 lakh crore in state-
run banks over a period of two years. Banks burdened by bad loans will get Rs 1.35 lakh crore from bonds, 18,000 crore from the Budget and raise the remaining 58,000 crore through share sales.
Capital Goods• KEC International has secured new orders worth 1931 crore across
various business segments. The transmission and distribution business has secured orders worth 1756 crore; the cable business has secured order worth 112 crore; the railways business has bagged an order of 54 crore; and solar business has received orders worth 9 crore.
• BHEL has commenced execution of 20,400-crore Yadadri supercritical thermal power project ordered by the Telangana State Power Generation Corporation.
Engineering• IL&FS Transportation Networks announced that NHAI has approved the
collection of toll at the 2nd toll plaza at Banskopa in Paschim Burdwan District of the six laning of Barwa-Adda- Panagarh section in the States of Jharkhand and West Bengal developed by Barwa Adda Expressway, a wholly owned subsidiary of the Company.
• Larsen & Toubro (L&T) construction arm has won orders worth 3,551 crore across business segments. The engineering and construction major said its transportation infrastructure and water effluent treatment segments have jointly bagged orders worth 1,123 crore in the domestic market.
Pharmaceutical• Sun Pharmaceutical Industries's subsidiary has received approval from the
US health regulator to market a generic version of GSK's Coreg CR, extended-release capsules in the American market.
• Lupin has received the final approval from the US health regulator for its testosterone topical solution. The company has received final approval for its testosterone topical solution, 30 mg per actuation from the United States Food and Drug Administration (USFDA) to market the product.
• Cipla said its subsidiary InvaGen Pharmaceuticals Inc has received final approval from the US health regulator for Sevelamer Carbonate tablets, indicated for the control of serum phosphorus in adults with chronic kidney disease (CKD) on dialysis.
INTERNATIONAL NEWS• US pending home sales index came in at 106.0 in September, unchanged
from a downwardly revised reading for August. Economists had expected pending home sales to rise by 0.2 percent. A pending home sale is one in which a contract was signed but not yet closed. Normally, it takes four to six weeks to close a contracted sale.
• US initial jobless claims rose to 233,000, an increase of 10,000 from the previous week's revised level of 223,000. Economists had expected jobless claims to edge up to 235,000 from the 222,000 originally reported for the previous week.
• US new home sales surged up by 18.9 percent to an annual rate of 667,000 in September from a revised rate of 561,000 in August. Economists had expected new home sales to drop to a rate of 555,000 from the 560,000 originally reported for the previous month.
• US durable goods orders rose by 2.2% in September. Economists had expected the figure to rise by 1.0%. Excluding the volatile transportation sector, orders were up 0.7 percent in the month.
• Eurozone broad money supply rose at a faster pace and private sector credit logged a stable growth in September. The broad monetary aggregate M3 climbed 5.1 percent year-on-year, slightly faster than the 5 percent increase seen in August. M3 was forecast to grow again by 5 percent in September.
• China's industrial profits surged 27.7 percent year-over-year in September, faster than the 24.0 percent spike in August. Moreover, the latest rate of growth was the quickest since 2011.
• Overall consumer prices in Japan climbed 0.7 percent on year in September. That was in line with expectations and unchanged from the August reading. Core inflation also advanced an annual 0.7 percent - again matching forecasts and steady from the previous month.
• Producer prices in Japan were up 0.9 percent on year in September, the Bank of Japan said. That exceeded expectations for 0.8 percent, which would have been unchanged from the August reading.
• On a monthly basis, producer prices gained 0.1 percent after sliding 0.2 percent in August. For the third quarter of 2017, producer prices were up 0.1 percent on quarter and 0.8 percent on year.
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Ex-Date Company Purpose
31-Oct-17 Infosys Buyback/ Int. Div. - Rs 13/- Per Share31-Oct-17 HCL Infosystems Rights 10:21 @ Premium Rs 45/-1-Nov-17 Indiabulls Housing Finance Interim Dividend - Rs 9 Per Share1-Nov-17 HCL Technologies Interim Dividend - Rs 2/- Per Share1-Nov-17 Hindustan Zinc Interim Dividend - Rs 2/- Per Share1-Nov-17 Hindustan Unilever Interim Dividend - Rs 8/- Per Share2-Nov-17 MindTree Interim Dividend - Rs 2/- Per Share/
Special Dividend Rs 2/- Per Share2-Nov-17 ICICI Prudential Life
Insurance Company Interim Dividend - Rs 2.30 Per Share/ Special Dividend Rs 1.10 Per Share
3-Nov-17 Exide Industries Interim Dividend - Rs 1.60 Per Share3-Nov-17 Oil & Natural Gas Corp. Interim Dividend
Meeting Date Company Purpose
30-Oct-17 Tata Steel Results30-Oct-17 LIC Housing Finance Results30-Oct-17 Lupin Results30-Oct-17 IDFC Results30-Oct-17 Bharti Infratel Results30-Oct-17 Bharat Electronics Results31-Oct-17 SBI Life Insurance Company Results31-Oct-17 JSW Steel Results31-Oct-17 IDBI Bank Results31-Oct-17 Divi's Laboratories Results31-Oct-17 Dabur India Results/Dividend31-Oct-17 Ajanta Pharma Results31-Oct-17 Bharti Airtel Results1-Nov-17 Hexaware Technologies Results/Dividend2-Nov-17 Vedanta Results2-Nov-17 Power Grid Corporation
of India Results/Others2-Nov-17 Glenmark Pharmaceuticals Results3-Nov-17 Torrent Pharmaceuticals Results3-Nov-17 Hindalco Industries Results/Others3-Nov-17 BSE Results4-Nov-17 Orient Paper & Industries Results/Others
FORTHCOMING EVENTS
NOTES:1) These levels should not be confused with the daily trend sheet, which is sent every morning by e-mail in the name
of "Morning Mantra ".2) Sometimes you will find the stop loss to be too far but if we change the stop loss once, we will find more strength
coming into the stock. At the moment, the stop loss will be far as we are seeing the graphs on weekly basis and taking a long-term view and not a short-term view.
TREND SHEET
Stocks *Closing Trend Date Rate SUPPORT RESISTANCE Closing
Price Trend Trend
Changed Changed
S&P BSE SENSEX 33157 UP 18.11.16 25627 31300 30800
NIFTY50 10323 UP 27.01.17 8641 9800 9650
NIFTY IT 10862 UP 21.07.17 10712 10500 10400
NIFTY BANK 24840 UP 27.01.17 19708 24000 23600
ACC 1783 UP 06.10.17 1740 1680 1650
BHARTIAIRTEL 485 UP 13.10.17 431 430 420
BPCL 528 UP 18.10.17 514 480 470
CIPLA 625 UP 09.06.17 551 580 560
SBIN 311 UP 27.10.17 311 290 280
HINDALCO 270 UP 27.01.17 191 250 240
ICICI BANK 301 UP 27.10.17 301 280 275
INFOSYS 946 DOWN 13.04.17 931 970 980
ITC 269 DOWN 21.07.17 289 280 285
L&T 1225 UP 13.01.17 959 1150 1130
MARUTI 8114 UP 06.01.17 5616 7600 7500
NTPC 182 UP 04.08.17 177 170 165
ONGC 184 UP 27.10.17 184 170 165
RELIANCE 930 UP 23.06.17 718 840 810
TATASTEEL 727 UP 19.05.17 490 640 620
S/l
4
Closing as on 27-10-2017
BSE SENSEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change) NSE NIFTY TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)
SECTORAL INDICES (% Change)
SMC Trend
FMCGHealthcare
Auto BankRealty
Cap GoodsCons Durable
Oil & GasPower
ITMetal
Down SidewaysUp
GLOBAL INDICES (% Change)
INDIAN INDICES (% Change)
5
SMC Trend
Nifty Sensex BSE Midcap BSE Smallcap Nifty Junior S&P CNX 500
SMC Trend
FTSE 100CAC 40
NasdaqDow jonesS&P 500
NikkeiStrait times
Hang SengShanghai
32.03
16.06
11.14
8.61 7.93
-8.26 -7.43-5.77 -5.54 -5.46
-15.00
-10.00
-5.00
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
St Bk of India ICICI Bank UltraTech Cem.
Zee Entertainmen
Bharti Airtel Indiabulls Hous.
Yes Bank HCL Technologies
Lupin Kotak Mah. Bank
32.23
16.06
7.75 7.335.42
-5.61 -5.26 -4.47-3.37 -2.83
-10.00
-5.00
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
St Bk of India ICICI Bank Bharti Airtel Larsen & Toubro
NTPC Kotak Mah. Bank
Lupin Tata Motors-DVR
H D F C HDFC Bank
INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY (Equity) (` Crore)
333.79
-1191.49
6812.42
427.15691.38
-2000.00
-1000.00
0.00
1000.00
2000.00
3000.00
4000.00
5000.00
6000.00
7000.00
8000.00
Friday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday
FII / FPI Activity MF Activity
1.94
2.34
1.60
1.03
1.981.89
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
Nifty Sensex BSE Midcap BSE Smallcap
Nifty Next 50
S&P CNX 500
1.07
5.54
4.58
-2.23
0.05
-1.56
0.46
3.42
4.17
3.77
1.56
-3.00
-2.00
-1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
Auto Index Bankex Cap Goods Index
Cons Durable Index
FMCG Index Healthcare Index
IT Index Metal Index Oil & Gas Index
Power Index Realty Index
0.00
-0.98
-0.70 -0.65
-1.01
1.16
0.09
0.54
0.05
-1.50
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
Nasdaq Comp. Dow Jones S&P 500 Nikkei Strait Times Hang Seng Shanghai Comp.
FTSE 100 CAC 40
Beat the street - Fundamental Analysis
Source: Company Website Reuters Capitaline
6
Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 8 to 10 months.
POWER GRID CORPORATION OF INDIA LIMITED CMP: 212.00 Upside:22%Target Price: 258.00
Investment Rationale generation, net metering etc.?Power Grid Corporation of India Limited (PGCIL) is ?Company is playing a crucial role in the
a state run electric power transmission utility integration of Renewable Energy Resources with company. PGCIL currently operates close to the grid and is undertaking development of Green 141,920 circuit km of transmission lines and 224 Energy Corridors as well as transmission schemes substations, with transformation capacity of for Ultra Mega Solar Parks in a numbers of states. 295,980 MVA. The Government of India holds In addition, it is also establishing Renewable 57.9% stake in the firm as at 30th September 2017. Energy Management Centers (REMC) in certain
?The company has an ambitious investment plan and renewable rich states which would facilitate has budgeted capital expenditure (CAPEX) including forecasting of renewable resources and efficient investment in joint venture and subsidiaries of more management of variable renewable generation than ̀ 25,000 crore during 2017-18. ensuring grid stability & security.
?It is on track to achieve huge capex plan going Valuationforward as total work in hand is 1.24 lakh crore, With the higher capitalisation in coming years owing including ongoing projects, new projects and to huge capex, steady regulated RoE, we believe that Tariff Based Competitive Bidding (TBCB) projects PGCIL's fundamentals would continue to remain strong worth 1.02 lakh crore, 4,000 crore and aided by least exposure to operational risks. Thus, it is Rs.18,000 crore, respectively. Thus PGCIL needs expected that the company would see good growth to do an investment of around 81000 crore in going forward and the stock will see a price target of next 3-3.5 years. 258 in 8 to 10 months time frame on a target average
?The company has achieved all the 12th five year P/E of 15x and FY18 (E) earnings of 17.21.plan targets in every year and is entering 13th 5 year plan and despite base getting higher, management is confident of reasonable growth going forward as well.
?While PGCIL continued to keep its thrust on transmission segment, it is continuously working on the emerging opportunities which include intrastate transmission, telecom, opportunities in international market, railway electrification, smart cities etc.
?For development of Smart Grid in India, company has undertaken various initiatives and is providing consulting services for projects covering distribution infrastructure, advanced metering infrastructure, intelligent outage management, power quality management, distributed
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Face Value (`) 10.00
52 Week High/Low 226.40/167.40
M.Cap ( Cr.) 110909.71
EPS ( ) 13.58
P/E Ratio (times) 15.61
P/B Ratio (times) 2.22
Dividend Yield (%) 1.18
Stock Exchange BSE
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% OF SHARE HOLDING
P/E Chart
` in cr
Actual EstimateFY Mar-17 FY Mar-18 FY Mar-19
Revenue 25716.50 30167.10 34110.70
Ebitda 22601.50 27004.60 30512.30
Ebit 14938.70 20172.90 21714.50
Pre-Tax Profit 9499.80 11403.10 13192.10
Net Income 7520.20 9020.60 10344.70
EPS 14.37 17.21 19.67
VALUE PARAMETERS
Investment Rationale into non-wheel business and is also trying to increase market share globally as well as •Wheels India Limited, promoted by the TVS domestic. At present, only 15% of revenue is Group, manufactures steel wheel. The Company contributed by this segment.Segments include Cars, utility vehicles,
•The management of the company is planning to Commercial vehicles, Tractors, Single Piece expand capacity for manufacture of forged wheels and Construction & Earth Mover wheels. aluminum wheels to meet increased requirement The company also manufactures air suspension from truck, trailer and defense equipments kits for trucks and buses.manufactures.•15 % of the Company's total turnover is accounted
from exports, particularly from the Construction Valuation& Earth Mover equipment segment and of total The company expects further improvement in 15%, 70% of exports are related to wheels for financials due to strong growth in demand for buses agriculture, construction and mining equipment. with air suspension systems, with large purchases by
•It has always worked on developing new products state transport corporations and export of buses by for new customer vehicle models and is making OEMs. Moreover, good growth in the windmill parts improvements through value engineering on business and tractor wheel business would grow more existing products aimed at light weighting and give boost up to the financial growth of the exercises, cost reduction or performance company. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a improvement. During FY16-17, it has made price target of 1960 in 8 to 10 months time frame on development of 221 new products and now a 2 year average P/E of 33.10x and FY18 (E) earnings management is focusing on value optimization of of ̀ 59.21.its product and process design to manufacture wheels and air suspension kits.
•According to the management of the company, commercial vehicle market is one of its major markets and significant growth of around 30 percent was achieved during FY16-17. In coming years, company expects to maintain same run rate.
•The Construction equipment and mining segment is expected to show growth in the domestic market this year. The management is more concern about the rural segment and expecting good demand of tractor due to above normal monsoon.
•The company is focusing on strategic expansion
`
P/E Chart
Face Value (`) 10.00
52 Week High/Low 1777.00/1081.00
M.Cap ( Cr.) 1913.43
EPS ( ) 49.03
P/E Ratio (times) 32.43
P/B Ratio (times) 4.09
Dividend Yield (%) 0.82
Stock Exchange BSE
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` in cr
% OF SHARE HOLDING
VALUE PARAMETERS
Actual Estimate
FY Mar-17 FY Mar-18 FY Mar-19
Revenue 2172.90 2357.60 2593.30Ebitda 186.80 208.60 229.50Ebit 122.90 208.60 229.50Pre-Tax Profit 78.27 95.62 113.90Net Income 60.26 71.23 84.82EPS 50.09 59.21 70.51BVPS 388.39 441.88 512.39ROE 13.67 13.40 13.76
WHEELS INDIA LIMITED CMP: 1590.25 Upside:23%Target Price: 1960.00
25.8
9.74
2.91
57.9
3.65 Foreign
Institutions
Non Promoter Corporate Holding
Promoters
Public & Others
0.03
8.38
0
75
16.59
Foreign
Institutions
Non Promoter Corporate Holding
Promoters
Public & Others
Charts by Spider Software India Ltd
7
EQUITY
Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1-2 months
Disclaimer : The analyst and its affiliates companies make no representation or warranty in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in its research. The analysis contained in the analyst research is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results.The analyst, not any of its affiliated companies, not any of their members, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the analysis research.
SOURCE: CAPITAL LINE
The stock closed at `149.35 on 27TH October 2017. It made a 52-week low at
91.25 on 27TH December 2016 and a 52-week high of 149.90 on 27TH October
2017. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the stock on the daily
chart is currently at 128.93
As we can see on chart that stock has been trading in consolidation of 130-144
levels for five months, forming a “Bull Flag” pattern on weekly charts, which is
bullish in nature. Last week, stock gained over 9% and gave the breakout of
pattern and also managed to close above the same along with huge volume. So
buying is expected to continue in coming days. Therefore, one can buy in the
range of 145-147 levels for the upside target of 165-170 levels with SL below 135.
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EIH Limited (EIHOTEL)
The stock closed at 135.35 on 27TH October 2017. It made a 52-week low at
104.05 on 11TH August 2017 and a 52-week high of 146.80 on 18TH January
2017. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the stock on the daily
chart is currently at 126.94
On broader charts, 105 has a strong support for the stock, recently, it has
recovered sharply from it and crossed over its 200WEMA and also closed above
the same. Moreover, it has also given the breakout of its earlier resistance of 133
with decent volume, so buying momentum can continue for the stock. Apart
from this, technical indicators like RSI and MACD are also suggest buying for the
stock. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 132-134 levels for the upside
target of 150-155 levels with SL below 122 levels.
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KPIT Technologies Limited (KPIT)
DERIVATIVES
CHANGE IN NIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY)
WEEKLY VIEW OF THE MARKET
NIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (IN QTY)
CHANGE IN BANKNIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)BANKNIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (IN QY) (MONTHLY)
Overall derivative data indicates long rollover and most of the Nifty Nov futures positions have been rolled with the average of 10250 futures. Derivative data
indicate bullish scenario to continue. Nifty has multiple strong supports at lower levels. Various supports are 10200, 10250 spot levels. We will see short covering
on every dip. In the Nov option contracts, we are seeing options open interest building up in 10500 calls and 10200 puts, so the probable range for next expiry
could be 10000-10500 with positive bias. From option data we have been seeing shifting range to the upper band. Market undertone is likely to remain bullish
with support of consistent FII buying and short covering. The Implied Volatility (IV) of calls was up and closed at 10.78% while that for put options closed at
10.55%. The Nifty VIX for the week closed at 11.62% and is expected to remain sideways. Overall market's cost-of-carry is up on the back of fresh long additions.
Among Nifty Call options, the 10500-strike call has the highest open interest of above 30 lakh shares. On put side; 10000-strike put has the highest open interest
of over 45 lakh shares in open interest respectively. The PCR OI for the week closed up at 1.13 which indicates OTM put writing. On the technical front 10250-
10270 spot levels is strong support zone and current trend is likely to continue towards 10450-10500.
In lakhs
In 10000 In 10000
APOLLOTYRE (NOV FUTURE)
Buy: Above `246
Target: `253
Stop loss: `242
IOC
BUY NOV 410. PUT 18.00SELL NOV 400. PUT 13.85
Lot size: 1500BEP: 405.85
Max. Profit: 8775.00 (5.85*1500)Max. Loss: 6225.00 (4.15*1500)
OPTIONSTRATEGY
FUTURE
IDFC
BUY NOV 62.5. PUT 2.40SELL NOV 57.5. PUT 1.00
Lot size: 13200BEP: 61.10
Max. Profit: 47520.00 (3.60*13200)Max. Loss: 18480.00 (1.40*13200)
DERIVATIVE STRATEGIES
DHFL (NOV FUTURE)
Buy: Above `622
Target: `638
Stop loss: `613
BULLISH STRATEGY
TATAGLOBAL
BUY NOV 225. CALL 10.40SELL NOV 230. CALL 8.30
Lot size: 4500BEP: 227.10
Max. Profit: 13050.00 (2.90*4500)Max. Loss: 9450.00 (2.10*4500)
AMARAJABAT (NOV FUTURE)
Sell: Below `680
Target: `661
Stop loss: `690
BEARISH STRATEGY
Call Put
5.0
1 7.8
3 10
.99
13
.18
14
.18
22
.92
24
.82
27
.19
19
.80
19
.30
10
.22
17
.32 21
.26
44
.04
23
.83
30
.56
22
.30
6.4
9 9.2
1
1.1
7
1.0
5
9.4
5
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
45.00
50.00
9800 9900 10000 10100 10200 10300 10400 10500 10600 10700 11000
Call Put
3.1
5
3.8
4 5.8
6
5.5
9
2.9
6
12
.27
12
.47
12
.99
14
.14 1
6.8
9
6.9
49.0
6
10
.00
26
.09
11
.95
17
.24
18
.09
3.6
2
6.6
6
1.0
6
0.9
1
7.0
1
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
9800 9900 10000 10100 10200 10300 10400 10500 10600 10700 11000
Call Put
0.3
0
0.3
4
0.2
1
0.4
0
3.5
8 4.5
5
0.0
4
5.2
1
4.0
6
3.1
6
0.4
4
0.2
5
0.7
9 1.6
1
5.0
0
3.8
8
11
.27
0.0
9
4.2
1
1.3
9
2.7
2
0.2
8
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
22300 22500 23000 23500 24000 24500 24800 25000 25500 26000 26500
Call Put
2.9
0
3.4
0
1.6
7
3.6
9
30
.38
34
.37
0.3
6
40
.60
28
.03
26
.18
4.4
5
2.3
9
4.3
6
6.1
6
37
.96
28
.78
10
0.5
2
0.7
6
40
.10
13
.82 2
7.1
8
2.7
6
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
22300 22500 23000 23500 24000 24500 24800 25000 25500 26000 26500
8
In lakhs
9
DERIVATIVES
FII’s ACTIVITY IN DERIVATIVE SEGMENT
SENTIMENT INDICATOR (NIFTY)
26-Oct 25-Oct 24-Oct 23-Oct 19-Oct
DISCOUNT/PREMIUM 16.75 30.00 47.45 39.40 24.75
COST OF CARRY% 0.54 0.56 0.58 0.56 0.50
PCR(OI) 1.13 1.19 1.33 1.37 1.46
PCR(VOL) 1.06 1.08 1.34 1.16 1.72
A/D RATIO(NIFTY 50) 1.13 1.32 1.22 1.32 0.06
A/D RATIO(ALL FO STOCK)* 1.19 1.07 1.70 1.58 0.07
IMPLIED VOLATILITY 10.78 10.67 10.88 10.92 11.26
VIX 11.62 11.76 11.59 12.33 12.33
HISTORY. VOL 12.03 12.15 12.08 12.38 12.60
*All Future Stock
SENTIMENT INDICATOR (BANKNIFTY)
FII’S ACTIVITY IN NIFTY FUTURE
**The highest call open interest acts as resistance and highest put open interest acts as support.# Price rise with rise in open interest suggests long buildup | Price fall with rise in open interest suggests short buildup # Price fall with fall in open interest suggests long unwinding | Price rise with fall in open interest suggests short covering
#All Future Stock
Top 10 short build upTop 10 long build up
NAME LTP Rollover % Open interest
IBREALEST 209.45 95.3% 43840000
JSWENERGY 84.5 94.6% 62747000
FORTIS 147.1 92.5% 41604300
CASTROLIND 402.1 92.5% 13983200
JSWSTEEL 262.2 92.4% 50049000
TATAMTRDVR 232.2 92.3% 25855200
TV18BRDCST 43.45 92.2% 91307000
SUNPHARMA 534.2 91.6% 38028000
ADANIPOWER 32.95 91.4% 103080000
AUROPHARMA 753.35 91.2% 16215200
NAME LTP Rollover % Open interest
POWERGRID 212.65 61.1% 12280000
BATAINDIA 777.35 65.4% 1334300
BPCL 536.5 67.0% 9622800
COALINDIA 290.9 68.2% 15427500
GAIL 461.05 69.0% 11906000
MUTHOOTFIN 489.35 69.2% 1735500
NTPC 183.45 69.9% 23304000
OIL 347.35 70.0% 2438216
PNB 207.65 70.1% 29928500
BALKRISIND 1644.15 70.3% 598400
In Cr. In Cr.
26-Oct 25-Oct 24-Oct 23-Oct 19-Oct
DISCOUNT/PREMIUM 58.45 55.80 102.30 112.70 42.65
COST OF CARRY% 0.54 0.56 0.58 0.56 0.50
PCR(OI) 1.41 1.37 1.51 1.16 1.10
PCR(VOL) 1.32 0.96 1.41 0.94 1.00
A/D RATIO(NIFTY 50) 1.00 1.40 2.00 3.00 0.00
#A/D RATIO 1.33 1.75 3.40 2.14 0.00
IMPLIED VOLATILITY 13.40 13.65 13.79 13.74 13.78
VIX 11.62 11.76 11.59 12.33 12.33
HISTORY. VOL 20.60 21.24 15.70 16.03 16.25
76
8
80
8
24
86
25
8
96
8
24
- 65
7
- 13
48
- 10
98
- 51
5
-2000
-1500
-1000
- 500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
12-Oct 13-Oct 16-Oct 17-Oct 18-Oct 19-Oct 23-Oct 24-Oct 25-Oct 26-Oct
10
80
12
04
12
22
10
89
29
4
- 57
- 54
9
- 65
2
10
51
23
47
- 1000
- 500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
12-Oct 13-Oct 16-Oct 17-Oct 18-Oct 19-Oct 23-Oct 24-Oct 25-Oct 26-Oct
10
SPICES
Soybean futures (Nov) is likely to witness sell on rise & test 2800-2750 levels as the demand for the commodity in the spot market is very poor mainly from crushers due to poor domestic and export demand for soy meal. The soybean prices are likely to remain under pressure till 15th December due peak supply period along with huge carryover stocks of about 1.5-2 million tons. Ref. soy oil futures (Nov) will possibly trade sideways & consolidate in the range of 674-684 levels. The counter is on uptrend since past three weeks, buoyed by higher quoting soy oil price on CBOT. However, the upside may get limited from here on as the retail demand of soy oil is very limited so most of the wholesale traders are procuring soy oil as per requirement. CPO futures (Nov) is likely to trade higher & test 550 levels, tracking strong moves of palm oil in the international market. Malaysian palm oil prices are at their highest levels since mid-September, as ongoing strength in export demand continues to increase expectations that supplies of the edible oil will remain tight. The uptrend is likely to persist in mustard futures (Nov) as it has the potential to test 3980-4020 levels. Mustard oil crushers are also active in buying mustard seed with anticipation that demand for its oil will improve ahead amid winter season. Secondly, the initial data of sowing highlights that only 25% of the 2017/18 mustard crop has been planted in Rajasthan as compared to 70% that was planted last year at this time. The ideal planting window for mustard is up to November 20th & any more delay in mustard seed will hurt yield leading to lower production next season.
OIL AND OILSEEDS
OTHER COMMODITIES
Kapas futures (April) is likely to trade sideways in the range of 860-880 levels. At present, there is not much clarity in the price direction & in days to come the new crop supply will be a trend setter and needs to be keenly observed. The other factor, which needs to be look out, is the procurement procedure. Around 40 centers of CCI in Gujarat will begin procurement procedure from November 1 while the remaining 16 centers will catch up eventually. On the international market, ICE cotton futures is facing resistance near 70 cents per pound owing to the growing harvest pressure and diminishing weather concerns in Texas. Guar seed futures (Nov) will possibly take support near 3575 levels & the downtrend may take a pause. The market participants are keeping a close watch on the crude oil prices, shale gas production and U.S rigs count. The current pace of arrivals are also likely to decline gradually ahead as current rates may prompt farmers to hold their produce in the anticipation of better return this season due to prospects of lower crop estimates. According to trade sources, Guarseed production could not be more than 75 lakh bags and estimated carryover stocks is around 85 lakh bags, which took the total tally at 160 lakh bags, whereas demand (crush) is expected to between 130-150 lakh bags leaving, ending stocks for 2017-18 (Oct-Sept) at around 10-30 lakh bags. Mentha oil futures (Nov) is looking bullish and in days to come it can test 1320-1400 levels. At the spot markets, the counter is showing strong owing to good exporters buying against thin arrivals.
Bullion counter is expected to witness lower level buying as FOMC interest rate decision and movement of greenback along with outcome of US nonfarm payroll data is expected to give further direction to the prices. Local currency rupee can move in the range of 64-65.60. Gold can face resistance near $1320 in COMEX and 30000 in MCX while it has support near $1230 in COMEX and 28800 in MCX. Silver has key support near 38500 in MCX and $16.20 in COMEX. And it has resistance near 40600 in MCX and $17.50 in COMEX. The US House passed a budget resolution last week, which paved the way for introducing tax reform. Janet Yellen is probably ruled out as the next Fed Chair which increased chances of John Taylor or Jerome Powell to be the next Fed Chairman. Recently dollar index also found support as the ECB announced a dovish taper in its meeting. The ECB will halve its bond purchases to €30 billion a month and will continue its purchases almost till the end of 2018. Mario Draghi also indicated that ECB remains open to increasing bond purchases again if conditions warrant and thereby provided a very dovish forward guidance. Gold imports in the September quarter doubled despite the complications arising out of the goods and services tax (GST) implementation, money-laundering restrictions, curbs on export houses and a dull demand season. According to a GFMS gold survey released, “The September quarter's official gold imports were 132.7 tonnes, representing a 66 per cent rise.”
BULLIONS
Crude oil prices may remain on firm path as it is expected to move in the range of 3300-3550 in MCX. Geo-political developments related to the oil market along with compliance of OPEC production cut and weekly inventory data to give further direction to the prices. Saudi Oil Minister Khalid al-Falih made a high profile visit to Iraq, calling for increased economic cooperation and praising existing coordination to boost crude oil prices. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), plus Russia and nine other producers have cut oil output by about 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) since January. The pact runs to March 2018, but they are considering extending it. Putin stated earlier that the oil supply deal could be extended to the end of 2018, although OPEC ministers have not given specific commitments on doing so. Iran's total crude and condensate exports for October are expected to tumble by nearly a fifth from the previous month to a 19-month low. Natural gas may trade in the range of 190-212 in MCX. Natural gas prices rose in the wake of current weather system with cooler temperatures, which is expected to linger across the northern and eastern U.S. through the first week of November. Total natural gas in storage currently stands at 3.646 trillion cubic feet (tcf), according to the EIA. That figure is 179 bcf, or around 4.9%, lower than levels at this time a year ago and 35 bcf, or roughly 1%, below the five-year average for this time of year.
ENERGY COMPLEX
In base metal counter, volatile movement may persist on the outcome of China manufacturing PMI data, which is scheduled to release this week, may give further direction to the prices. China is stepping up efforts to cut industrial production to combat smog, which typically occurs during the winter months as industrial emissions mix with smoke from coal-fired heating units. Profits earned by China's industrial firms in September surged 27.7% from a year earlier, accelerating from a 24% rise in August. Copper may remain move in the range of 440-460. Top copper producer Chile will likely churn out 5.9 million tonnes of the red metal in 2018, up 7 percent from this year's estimated output that was curbed by a strike at the world's biggest copper mine. Aluminum prices may trade in the range of 136-144 in MCX. LME aluminium surged to its highest in more than five years on expectations of dwindling supply of both aluminium and its raw materials. Zinc can move in the range of 200-218. Glencore's chief operating officer for Australian zinc assets Greg Ashe told that the market was still too volatile for the company to start increasing its production. Lead can move in the range of 152-166 in MCX. Nickel may remain in the range of 730-780. According to INSG “Global demand for nickel is expected to outstrip supply for a third year running in 2018, as demand from the stainless steel industry expands and production of nickel-containing batteries grows”. Striking workers at North America's second-largest zinc processing plant, owned by the Noranda Income Fund, have rejected a wage and pension offer from the company.
Turmeric futures (Nov) is expected to witness a consolidation in the range of 7150-7400 levels & trade with a downside bias. The sentiments of the market participants are pessimistic as the price of the spot turmeric is not improving and also the sale is very meager due to the daily declining price. The traders are quoting decreased price, after verifying the sample as only medium and poor quality turmeric is arriving for sale in major mandis. Turmeric prices at present is ruling around similar to last year's level, but still not able find good demand mainly due to ample stocks in the country. Further, buyers are not in mood to make any bulk purchases as new crop is said to be in satisfactory conditions with production expected slightly higher than last year. Jeera futures (Nov) seems to have taken support near 18700 levels & in days to come an upside momentum can be seen towards 19500-19700 levels. Fundamentals are strong as the stock left is thin in the market and there is still a long way for the new crop to enter into the market. The new Jeera crop will now arrive only from February, which means that five month of time span left before new crop hits the market. Coriander futures (Nov) is likely to trade sideways to down in the range of 4800-5100 & witness selling pressure with every rise. Coriander sowing in the producing belts of Rajasthan is expected to commence from first week of November and sowing progress report will decide future trend for the commodity. The temperature at present is still high around 34 degree Celsius in the producing belts against required 25-30 degree Celsius.
BASE METALS
11
TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS
COMMODITY
MENTHA OIL MCX (NOVEMBER) contract closed at ̀ 1291 on 26th Oct'17. The contract made its high of
1294.10 on 26th Oct'17 and a low of 1139.50 on 09th Aug'17. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average
of the commodity is currently at 1257.5.
On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 59. One can buy in the
range of 1300 - 1290 with the stop loss of 1270 for a target of 1340.
` `
`
` ` `
RMSEED NCDEX (NOVEMBER) contract closed at 3955 on 26th Oct'17. The contract made its high of
3976 on 24th Aug'17 and a low of 3768 on 03rd Oct'17. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the
commodity is currently at 3878.6.
On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 53. One can buy in the
range of 3900 - 3870 with the stop loss of 3820 for a target of 3980.
`
` `
`
` ` `
COPPER MCX (NOVEMBER) contract closed at 456.95 on 26th Oct'17. The contract made its high of
466.35 on 16th Oct'17 and a low of 369.05 on 06th June'17. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of
the commodity is currently at 450.
On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 63. One can buy in the
range of 447 – 442 with the stop loss of 435 for a target of 465.
`
` `
`
` ` `
MENTHA OIL MCX (NOVEMBER)
RMSEED NCDEX (NOVEMBER)
COPPER MCX (NOVEMBER)
NOTES : 1) These levels should not be confused with the daily trend sheet, which is sent every morning by e-mail in the name of Daily report- commodities (Morning Mantra).
2) Sometimes you will find the stop loss to be too far but if we change the stop loss once, we will find more strength coming into the commodity. At the moment, the stop loss will be far as we are seeing the graphs on weekly basis and taking a long-term view and not a short-term view.
EXCHANGE COMMODITY CONTRACT CLOSING DATE TREND TREND RATE TREND SUPPORT RESISTANCE CLOSING
PRICE CHANGED CHANGED STOP/LOSS
NCDEX SOYABEAN NOV 2848.00 27.09.17 Down 3077.00 - 3000.00 3100.00
NCDEX JEERA NOV 19250.00 27.09.17 Down 18985.00 - 19800.00 20500.00
NCDEX REF.SOY OIL NOV 676.60 23.08.17 UP 660.85 660.00 - 655.00
NCDEX RM SEEDS NOV 3955.00 12.10.17 Sideways
NMCE PEPPER MINI NOV 42900.00 11.05.17 Down 55957.00 - 45500.00 46500.00
NMCE RUBBER NOV 12639.00 13.07.17 Sideways
MCX MENTHA OIL NOV 1291.00 20.07.17 UP 980.00 1200.00 - 1180.00
MCX CARDAMOM NOV 1009.30 27.09.17 Down 1100.50 - 1060.00 1120.00
MCX SILVER DEC 39272.00 10.08.17 UP 39213.00 38500.00 - 37500.00
MCX GOLD DEC 29270.00 10.08.17 UP 29176.00 29200.00 - 29100.00
MCX COPPER NOV 456.95 29.06.17 UP 388.25 445.00 - 435.00
MCX LEAD NOV 161.45 20.07.17 UP 141.25 158.00 - 155.00
MCX ZINC NOV 211.50 17.10.17 Sideways
MCX NICKEL NOV 766.80 12.10.17 UP 740.30 710.00 - 660.00
MCX ALUMINIUM NOV 142.55 10.08.17 UP 129.80 136.00 - 132.00
MCX CRUDE OIL NOV 3428.00 27.09.17 UP 3416.00 3300.00 - 3250.00
MCX NATURAL GAS NOV 200.50 17.10.17 Sideways
TREND SHEET
*Closing as on 26.10.17
COMMODITY
NEWS DIGEST
In the week gone by a lot of volatility was witnessed in the metal counter due to wild swings in
domestic currency rupee and dollar index. Gold moved lower as stronger greenback and lack of
safe haven demand kept price under pressure. Gold also dropped on reports that Republican
senators favoured John Taylor to become the next head of the U.S. Federal Reserve. Crude
prices climbed higher on OPEC production cut compliance by the member countries and rise in
demand. As per EIA data released last week, Crude inventories rose by 856,000 barrels in the
week to Oct. 20. Gasoline stocks fell by 5.5 million barrels and Distillate stockpiles which
include diesel and heating oil, fell by 5.2 million barrels. Natural gas got support in the wake of
current weather system with cooler temperatures, which is expected to linger across the
northern and eastern U.S. through the first week of November. In base metal pack, copper and
nickel witnessed selling pressure at higher levels. Zinc prices in LME continue to show strength
as premium of cash zinc over the three month 3 rose to $68.50, climbing back towards the 10-
year high of $91 a tonne it hit two weeks ago. While Aluminium surged higher as London
aluminium surged to its highest in more than five years on expectations of dwindling supply as
China aluminium makers cut production over winter. Meanwhile, sales of new single-family
houses in the US jumped 18.9% to 667K in September, beating expectations of a 0.9% decline. It
is the highest value since October 2007 and the largest percent gain since January 1992.
Last week, the shining agro commodities were Mentha, cotton, mustard, jeera & soy oil. The
fundamental factors that pushed up the mentha were thin stocks coupled with lower arrivals.
Cotton prices flared up on news of hike in minimum support price by the Gujarat government.
Mustard prices posted gains for the second consecutive week owing to the laggard sowing pace
in Rajasthan due to hot temperatures & millers demand for mustard oil. Soy oil gained more
than palm oil due to its seasonal nature, as the later solidifies faster in winters. In the spice
complex, jeera stood out to be the only gainer owing to robust demand against very thin stocks
available in the physical markets. Dullness was seen in pepper, cardamom & turmeric due to
poor upcountry demand.
WEEKLY COMMENTARY
COMMODITY UNIT 17.10.17 26.10.17 DIFFERENCEQTY. QTY.
BARLEY MT 1468 801 -667
CASTOR SEED MT 26415 24715 -1700
CORIANDER NEW MT 9396 7128 -2268
GUARGUM MT 18065 19455 1390
GUARSEED MT 15708 16601 893
JEERA NEW MT 6103 5639 -464
PEPPER MT 30 30 0
RM SEED MT 11315 5691 -5624
SOYBEAN MT 26985 34002 7017
TURMERIC MT 3185 2409 -776
WHEAT MT 8891 8891 0
COMMODITY UNIT 17.10.17 26.10.17 DIFFERENCE
QTY. QTY.
CARDAMOM MT 3.20 3.00 -0.20
GOLD KGS 56.00 56.00 0.00
GOLD MINI KGS 16.20 16.20 0.00
GOLD GUINEA KGS 7.90 7.90 0.00
MENTHA OIL KGS 1679013.25 1683341.60 4328.35
SILVER (30 KG Bar) KGS 36041.47 35831.15 -210.32
•The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs
announced a hike in MSP of Rabi crops for 2018-19
(Apr-Mar). - (in Rs./kg) : masur by Rs.300, to Rs.
4,250; chana by Rs.400 to Rs.4,400; safflower by
Rs.400 to Rs.4,100; mustard by Rs.300 to Rs.4,000;
barley by Rs.85 to Rs.1,410; wheat by Rs.110 to
Rs.1,735.
•NCDEX allowed deposit and delivery of commodities
at approved warehouses on Saturdays as well,
effective immediately.
•The Gujarat government has announced a bonus of
Rs.500 per 100 kg over and above the minimum
support price of cotton to help farmers.
•New orders for US manufactured durable goods rose
2.2 percent month-over-month in September of
2017, following an upwardly revised 2 percent
increase in August.
•Russia will increase its oil output by 3.5-4.0 million
tonnes in 2018 if a global deal between OPEC and
non-OPEC producers to reduce production is not
extended.
•US sales of new single-family houses in the US
jumped 18.9% to 667K in September as it was the
highest value since October 2007 and the largest
percent gain since January 1992.
WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (MCX)
12
WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (NCDEX)
NCDEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change) MCX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)
3.83%
2.57%
1.66% 1.62%1.39%
-1.57% -1.52% -1.47%
-1.13%-1.03%
-0.02
-0.01
0.00
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
ZINC ALUMINIUMCRUDE
OILMENTHA
OIL COTTON CARDAMOM SILVERNATURAL
GAS PEPPER GOLD M
3.23%
1.61%1.44% 1.33% 1.30%
-3.35%
-2.84% -2.83%
-2.34% -2.23%
- 0.04
- 0.03
- 0.02
- 0.01
0.00
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
RM SEED OILCAKE JEERA
COTTON 29MM RM SEED
DEGUMMED SOYOIL CHANA
GUARGUM 5MT TURMERIC SOYAMEAL BARLEY
COMMODITY
COMMODITY EXCHANGE CONTRACT 20 26.10.17 CHANGE%
ALUMINIUM LME CASH 2159.00 2175.00 0.74
COPPER LME CASH 7008.50 6965.00 -0.62
LEAD LME CASH 2502.00 2492.00 -0.40
NICKEL LME CASH 12050.00 11845.00 -1.70
ZINC LME CASH 3208.00 3301.00 2.90
GOLD COMEX DEC 1280.50 1269.60 -0.85
SILVER COMEX DEC 17.08 16.81 -1.58
LIGHT CRUDE OIL NYMEX DEC 51.84 52.64 1.54
NATURAL GAS NYMEX NOV 2.92 3.05 4.45
.10.17
PRICES OF METALS IN LME/ COMEX/ NYMEX (in US $)
WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN LME (IN TONNES)
COMMODITY STOCK POSITION STOCK POSITION DIFFERENCE
17.10.17 26.10.17
ALUMINIUM 1218950 1195525 -23425
COPPER 285025 279400 -5625
NICKEL 385788 387948 2160
LEAD 151975 148725 -3250
ZINC 271900 264150 -7750
INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY PRICES
COMMODITY EXCHANGE CONTRACT UNIT 20.10.17 26.10.17 CHANGE(%)
Soybean CBOT NOV Cent per Bushel 978.75 971.25 -0.77
Soy oil CBOT DEC Cent per Pound 34.16 34.50 1.00
CPO BMD DEC MYR per MT 2741.00 2813.00 2.63
Sugar LIFFE DEC 10 cents per MT 368.80 373.40 1.25
13
SPOT PRICES (% change) Cotton seed oilcake… the most valuable feed for our vast population of livestock
Cottonseed cake or cottonseed meal is a by-product obtained by extracting oil from cotton seeds. Cottonseed is recovered from lint and crushed for oil. Recovery is about 11-12% of seed. Recovery of meal from seed is about 85-86%. It is also known as Kapasia Khalli. It may be sold in the form of meal, cake, flakes or pellets. Cottonseed oilcake is the second most valuable product of cotton seed, accounting for over one-third of total product value of cotton seed. Cotton seed oil cake is a major source of livestock feed. It is also used as fertilizer, either alone or in mixtures with other ingredients. It is an excellent organic source of nitrogen, phosphorus, potash, and many minor plant food elements. In India, though Maharashtra has largest area under cotton cultivation but the cotton production is highest in Gujarat due to higher crop productivity. Other leading cotton growing states are Andhra Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka. The market size for cotton seed oilcake in India is around Rs. 7300 Cr. Most of cottonseed meal is consumed in India itself, limiting the global trade to just 0.5-0.6 million tons a year. With an expected cotton output of 380 lakh bales in the cotton season for 2017-18, over 125 lakh tonne of cottonseed is likely to become available to the industry for cottonseed extraction. Cottonseed production in 2016-17 was 113 lakh tones. To considering a rich source of protein for our vast livestock, the GST Council has exempted the Cottonseed oilcake form GST. Global producer and export-importCottonseed oilcake is produced about 14-16 million ton globally. China is the largest producer contributing for about 29% of total output in the world. India is the second largest cotton seed producing country in the world. Pakistan, Brazil, United States, Uzbekistan, Turkey and Australia are the other major cottonseed oilcake producing countries. China (1-1.2 lakh tons) is the single largest exporter, while Europe (2 lakh tons), South Korea (1-1.5 lakh tons) are the largest importers of cottonseed meal. United States, India, Argentina, Uzbekistan, Benin, Australia and Turkmenistan are the major cottonseed cake exporting countries. Mexico, Iran, Syria, Paraguay and New Zealand are the major importing countries.
-3.58
-3.54
-1.92
-1.91
-1.46
-1.21
-0.84
-0.52
0.02
0.38
0.66
0.85
2.04
2.07
2.10
4.23
-4.00 -2.00 0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00
GUAR GUM (JODHPUR)
GUAR SEED (JODHPUR)
PEPPER MALABAR GAR (KOCHI)
SOYABEAN (INDORE)
COTTON (KADI)
SUGAR (KOLKATA)
GUR (MUZAFFARNGR.)
TURMERIC (NIZAMABAD)
BARLEY (JAIPUR)
CRUDE PALM OIL (KANDLA)
RAW JUTE (KOLKATA)
JEERA (UNJHA)
CORIANDER (KOTA)
MUSTARD (JAIPUR)
WHEAT (DELHI)
COTTON SEED OIL CAKE (AKOLA)
The major trading centers of Cotton seed oilcake in India are:• Maharashtra (Akola, Amravati, Khamgoan, Jalna, Parbhani, Beed, Jalgaon)• Gujarat (Kadi, Rajkot)• Andhra Pradesh (Adilabad, Guntur)• Punjab (Abohar, Mansa, Malout)
Factors effecting market • Domestic demand supply scenario • Cotton supply and its prices • Monsoon plays most crucial factor in the production of cotton resulting
into availability of Cotton Seed • Price and availability of alternatives, such as RM seed meal, Pulses churi,
Maize churi, Guar churi, etc.
Source : USDA
CURRENCY
Currency Table
Currency Pair Open High Low Close
USD/INR 65.20 65.23 64.72 64.84
EUR/INR 76.79 76.79 76.33 76.56
GBP/INR 85.93 86.19 85.46 85.72
JPY/INR 57.49 57.49 56.88 57.04
News Flows of last week
25th Oct UK economy expanded more than forecast in q3
25th Oct Japan producer prices rise 0.9% on year in September
26th Oct ECB to trim asset purchases from Jan 2018, extends for 9 months
26th Oct U.S. Weekly jobless claims rebound to 233,000
26th Oct U.S. Pending home sales unexpectedly flat in September
26th Oct Japan overall inflation gains 0.7% on year in September
EUR/INR (NOV) contract closed at 76.92 on 26th October'17. The contract made its high of 77.13 on 26th October'17 and a low of 76.70 on 23rd October'17 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the EUR/INR is currently at 77.11.
On the daily chart, EUR/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 46.51.One can sell around 76.20 for a target of 75.20 with the stop loss of 76.70.
(* NSE Currency future, Source: Spider, Open: Monday 9.00 AM IST, Close: Thursday (5.00 PM IST)
Market Stance
Indian rupee made a strong come back last week and showed some smart gains
against the dollar tracking higher global and domestic equity markets. Indian
forex market witnessed a sudden revival in sentiment following government's
Rs 2.11 lakh crore recapitalisation plan to bolster NPA-hit public sector banks.
The domestic equities continued their record-breaking run with both the
Sensex and Nifty hitting a lifetime high on the back of overall positive
sentiment amid optimism over earnings and short-covering on expiry day.
From global front overall trading spotlight was focused on the ECB Governing
Council decision as they near the end of their current asset purchase program,
which is due to expire in December. Meanwhile, the US dollar continued to
trade higher against a basket of the other major currencies on report that
Republican senators were leaning towards John Taylor to be the next Federal
Reserve chief amid hawkish Fed rate hike bets.
EUR/INR
USD/INR (NOV) contract closed at 65.07 on 24th October'17. The contract made its high of 65.47 on 25th October'17 and a low of 64.96 on 26th October'17 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the USD/INR is currently at 65.30.
On the daily chart, the USD/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 45.54. One can sell below 65.15 for the target of 64.35 with the stop loss of 65.55
GBP/INR (NOV) contract closed at 86.08 on 26th October'17. The contract made its high of 86.54 on 25th October'17 and a low of 85.82 on 25th October'17 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the GBP/INR is currently at 86.41.
On the daily chart, GBP/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 46.08. One can sell below 85.35 for a target of 84.35 with the stop loss of 85.85.
JPY/INR (NOV) contract closed at 57.33 on 26th October'17. The contract made its high of 57.67 on 24th October'17 and a low of 57.17 on 25th October'17 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the JPY/INR is currently at 57.91.
On the daily chart, JPY/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 33.71. One can sell below 57.20 for a target of 56.20 with the stop loss of 57.70
USD/INRTechnical Recommendation
Economic gauge for the next week
Date Currency Event Previous
30th Oct USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditure - Price Index (MoM) 0.130th Oct USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditure - Price Index (YoY) 1.331st Oct EUR Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) 2.331st Oct EUR Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) 0.631st Oct EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY) 1.531st Oct EUR Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY) 1.301st Nov GBP BOE's Governor Carney speech01st Nov USD ISM Manufacturing PMI 60.801st Nov USD ISM Prices Paid 71.501st Nov USD Fed's Monetary Policy Statement01st Nov USD Fed Interest Rate Decision 1.2502nd Nov GBP BoE Asset Purchase Facility 43502nd Nov GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision 0.2502nd Nov GBP Monetary Policy Summary02nd Nov GBP Bank of England Minutes03rd Nov USD Nonfarm Payrolls -3303rd Nov USD Unemployment Rate 4.2
GBP/INR JPY/INR
14
IPOIPO
THE NEW INDIA ASSURANCE COMPANY LIMITED
IPOIPO
Issue Highlights
Issue Composition In shares
Valuation
SMC Ranking
Objects of the Issue
(3.5/5)
15
16
FIXED DEPOSIT MONITOR
* Interest Rate may be revised by company from time to time. Please confirm Interest rates before submitting the application.
* For Application of Rs.50 Lac & above, Contact to Head Office.
* Email us at [email protected]
FIXED DEPOSIT COMPANIES
(FOR TRUST ONLY) (FOR WOMEN ONLY)
20000/- BUT
40000/-
IN MONTHLY
Note: Indicative corpus are including Growth & Dividend option. The above mentioned data is on the basis of 26/10/2017Beta, Sharpe and Standard Deviation are calculated on the basis of period: 1 year, frequency: Weekly Friday, RF: 7%
MUTUAL FUND Performance Charts
Returns (%) Risk Market Cap (%)
Scheme Name NAV Launch QAAUM 3M 6M 1Y 3Y Since Std.Dev Beta Jenson LARGE MID SMALL DEBT &
(`) Date (` Cr.) Launch CAP CAP CAP OTHER
Principal Tax Savings Fund 212.26 31-Mar-1996 345.00 7.33 15.73 29.08 17.69 17.42 2.22 1.07 0.16 52.59 38.86 5.28 3.27
Mirae Asset Tax Saver Fund - Reg - G 16.02 28-Dec-2015 526.46 4.99 14.62 28.59 N.A 29.39 1.95 0.94 0.22 64.19 29.63 3.76 2.41
IDFC Tax Advantage (ELSS) Fund - Reg - G 54.90 26-Dec-2008 661.74 5.66 14.61 28.20 18.30 21.25 1.91 0.86 0.14 53.32 28.67 13.05 4.96
Reliance Tax Saver (ELSS) Fund - G 65.12 21-Sep-2005 8960.11 7.51 15.94 27.83 14.65 16.74 2.22 1.04 0.11 57.25 27.45 11.48 3.82
HDFC Taxsaver - Growth 534.60 13-Jun-1996 6557.24 4.94 11.30 25.38 12.57 27.32 2.20 1.05 0.06 72.39 17.67 2.28 7.66
L&T Tax Advantage Fund - Reg - G 54.43 27-Feb-2006 2445.64 4.80 11.48 25.22 17.08 15.63 1.84 0.88 0.14 52.68 35.25 2.40 9.67
Motilal Oswal MOSt Focused Long Term F - Reg - G 16.91 21-Jan-2015 597.63 2.25 9.00 25.20 N.A 20.92 1.90 0.83 0.21 62.30 30.73 N.A 6.96
TAX Fund Due to their inherent long term nature, the following 3 categories have been sorted on the basis of 1 year returns
Returns (%) Risk Market Cap (%)
Scheme Name NAV Launch QAAUM 3M 6M 1Y 3Y Since Std.Dev Beta Jenson LARGE MID SMALL DEBT &
(`) Date (` Cr.) Launch CAP CAP CAP OTHER
DSP BlackRock Natural Reso. & New Energy F - Reg - G 36.97 25-Apr-2008 274.18 15.40 19.80 43.19 27.08 14.74 2.37 0.94 0.54 78.12 12.06 0.53 9.29
L&T Emerging Businesses Fund - Reg - G 26.14 12-May-2014 1503.08 6.22 16.73 37.36 27.22 32.01 2.16 0.84 0.32 0.96 54.62 26.76 17.66
IDFC Focused Equity Fund - Reg - G 37.70 16-Mar-2006 335.06 3.60 18.20 33.79 13.33 12.10 1.89 0.90 0.16 45.17 27.72 5.71 21.40
Aditya Birla Sun Life Pure Value Fund - G 63.86 27-Mar-2008 1540.35 15.55 18.13 33.01 23.27 21.33 2.38 0.99 0.26 28.40 55.93 8.63 7.05
L&T Midcap Fund - Reg - Growth 142.92 09-Aug-2004 1146.75 6.23 15.51 32.65 24.84 22.28 1.99 0.79 0.24 22.12 51.28 8.66 17.94
IDFC Sterling Equity Fund - Reg - G 53.88 07-Mar-2008 1598.83 6.54 15.06 32.03 19.43 19.08 2.18 0.89 0.20 25.32 50.52 16.12 8.04
Reliance Small Cap Fund - Growth 41.99 16-Sep-2010 4301.13 7.10 13.73 31.36 23.69 22.34 2.38 0.91 0.25 3.12 40.43 46.08 10.37
EQUITY (Diversified) Due to their inherent long term nature, the following 3 categories have been sorted on the basis of 1 year returns
Annualised
Returns (%) RiskAverage Yield till
Scheme Name NAV Launch QAAUM Since Std. SharpeMaturity (Years) Maturity
1W 2W 1M 6M 1Y 3Y(`) Date (`Cr.) Launch Dev.
Franklin India Dynamic Accrual Fund - G 59.80 05-Mar-1997 2702.15 4.70 7.43 8.02 9.60 9.67 10.47 9.04 9.88 0.22 2.70 9.95
Franklin India Income Opportunities F - G 20.09 11-Dec-2009 3149.77 6.91 8.25 8.26 9.67 9.64 9.38 9.26 12.90 0.11 2.08 9.76
BOI AXA Corporate Credit Spectrum F - Reg - G 12.92 27-Feb-2015 1245.09 5.41 7.24 7.14 9.58 9.57 N.A 10.10 7.68 0.37 2.40 10.23
UTI Dynamic Bond Fund - Reg - Growth 19.99 23-Jun-2010 1619.40 8.14 9.89 3.80 8.16 9.42 10.50 9.88 27.03 0.09 7.01 7.61
Franklin India Corporate Bond Opportunities F - G 17.57 07-Dec-2011 6720.71 6.94 8.59 8.43 9.16 9.28 9.35 10.04 10.72 0.13 2.48 9.94
Baroda Pioneer Credit Opportunities F - Reg - G 13.16 23-Jan-2015 828.18 6.77 7.95 7.22 8.96 9.24 N.A 10.46 8.43 0.32 2.90 8.23
Aditya Birla Sun Life Corporate Bond F - Reg - G 12.63 17-Apr-2015 3296.88 5.53 7.64 7.20 9.56 9.10 N.A 9.67 11.34 0.20 2.97 8.89
INCOME FUND
Returns (%) Risk Average Yield tillScheme Name NAV Launch QAAUM Since Std. Sharpe Maturity (Years) Maturity
1W 2W 1M 6M 1Y 3Y(`) Date (`Cr.) Launch Dev.
Franklin India STIP - Growth 3577.09 31-Jan-2002 8574.52 7.91 9.37 9.03 10.08 9.90 9.34 8.43 12.86 0.11 2.52 9.82
Aditya Birla Sun Life Medium Term Plan - Reg - G 21.51 25-Mar-2009 11101.30 4.84 7.46 6.74 9.28 8.14 9.87 9.32 13.38 0.14 4.16 8.73
Kotak Flexi Debt Scheme - Reg - G 22.01 27-May-2008 1371.85 5.98 7.26 6.16 8.93 7.34 9.69 8.73 20.87 0.12 4.67 7.62
Aditya Birla Sun Life Dynamic Bond F - Ret - DAP 20.91 08-Apr-2009 12881.00 -5.49 2.53 -2.44 8.86 4.60 10.04 9.01 35.55 0.04 16.61 7.55
ICICI Prudential Banking & PSU Debt F - Reg - G 19.63 01-Jan-2010 9412.18 2.35 6.51 4.51 8.78 7.80 9.64 9.00 17.65 0.13 N.A 7.19
L&T Short Term Income F - Reg - G 18.26 04-Dec-2010 840.20 5.53 7.53 7.67 8.65 9.01 9.39 9.12 6.46 0.31 1.76 8.27
Aditya Birla Sun Life Trea. Optimizer Plan - DAP 201.94 22-Jun-2009 8134.43 3.14 6.33 5.73 8.59 6.92 9.70 8.78 17.78 0.11 3.71 7.24
SHORT TERM FUND Due to their inherent short term nature, Short term funds have been sorted on the basis of 6month returns
Annualised
Returns (%) Risk Market Cap (%)
Scheme Name NAV Launch QAAUM 3M 6M 1Y 3Y Since Std.Dev Jenson LARGE MID SMALL DEBT &
(`) Date (` Cr.) Launch CAP CAP CAP OTHER
Reliance RSF - Balanced - Growth 54.35 08-Jun-2005 8133.18 3.51 11.42 20.72 13.84 14.64 1.50 0.07 37.69 22.89 6.03 33.40
HDFC Prudence Fund - Growth 516.19 01-Feb-1994 29593.40 4.20 10.72 19.99 13.35 19.38 1.85 0.04 53.10 12.25 5.97 28.68
ICICI Prudential Balanced - Growth 127.32 03-Nov-1999 17222.40 4.10 10.49 19.28 14.61 15.19 1.44 0.10 53.69 11.44 0.86 34.02
Mirae Asset Prudence Fund - Reg - G 13.48 29-Jul-2015 701.41 3.80 10.46 19.22 N.A 14.24 1.48 0.08 63.68 7.75 0.76 27.80
HDFC Balanced Fund - Growth 146.63 11-Sep-2000 14268.40 2.29 9.15 18.14 14.73 16.97 1.45 0.08 45.13 20.51 1.58 32.78
L&T India Prudence Fund - Reg - G 25.69 07-Feb-2011 6154.21 1.98 7.39 17.46 15.00 15.07 1.38 0.05 45.41 18.14 3.04 33.41
UTI Balanced Fund - Growth 167.34 20-Jan-1995 3316.86 2.71 7.88 15.81 12.04 16.14 1.42 0.06 44.06 19.44 5.17 31.32
BALANCED
18
Mr. S. C. Aggarwal (Chairman and Managing Director, SMC Group), Mr. Mahesh C. Gupta (Vice-Chairman & Managing Director, SMC Group),Mr. Ajay Garg (Director, SMC Group), Mr. Himanshu Gupta (Director & CEO - Moneywise Financial Services Pvt. Ltd) and other Senior Members
during cake cutting ceremony as SMC’s NBFC crossed asset size of Rs 500 Crores.
SMC Employees participating in “Flameless Cooking Competition” held on 7th October 2017 at SMC’s Daryaganj Branch.
Mr. DK Aggarwal (CMD, SMC Investments and Advisors Ltd.) was honored with "Samaj Rattan" by Marwari Yuva Manch, All India Vaish
Federation and Marwari Sammelan on 20th October 2017.
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