Winter Mortality in Scotland 2016/17 · 2017-10-13 · 2.1 Table 1 shows recent trends in the seasonal increase in mortality in the winter for Scotland as a whole. It is estimated

Winter Mortality in Scotland 2016/17

Published on 17 October 2017

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Contents

Main points ........................................................................................................................ 4

1. Introduction ........................................................................................................... 5

2. Commentary ......................................................................................................... 5

3. Relationship with Overall Mean Winter Temperature and the Level of Influenza Activity .................................................................................................. 8

4. How the Seasonal Increase in Mortality in the Winter is Calculated ................... 11

5. Background: about these statistics ..................................................................... 13

Notes on statistical publications ....................................................................................... 48

Related organisations ...................................................................................................... 50

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List of Tables

Table 1: The Seasonal Increase in Mortality in the Winter by age group, Scotland, 1990/91 to 2016/17 ......................................................................................... 15

Table 2: The Seasonal Increase in Mortality in the Winter, mean winter temperature and indicators of level of influenza activity, Scotland, 1951/52 to 2016/17 ..... 16

Table 3: The Seasonal Increase in Mortality in the Winter and the Increased Winter Mortality Index, by age group and NHS Board area of usual residence, 2007/08 to 2016/17 ......................................................................................... 18

Table 4: The Seasonal Increase in Mortality in the Winter – the underlying numbers of registrations of deaths, Scotland, 1990/91 to 2016/17 ................................ 22

Table 5: The Seasonal Increase in Mortality in the Winter - the underlying numbers of registrations of deaths, by NHS Board area of usual residence, 2013/14 to 2016/17 ....................................................................................................... 23

Table 6: The Seasonal Increase in Mortality in the Winter and the Increased Winter Mortality Index, by age group and Local Authority area of usual residence, 2007/08 to 2016/17 ......................................................................................... 25

Table 7: The Seasonal Increase in Mortality in the Winter - the underlying numbers of registrations of deaths, by Local Authority area of usual residence, 2013/14 to 2016/17 ......................................................................................... 34

Table 8: Seasonal Increase in Mortality in the Winter and the Increased Winter Mortality Index, by age-group and underlying cause of death, Scotland, 2006/07 to 2016/17 ......................................................................................... 39

List of Figures

Figure 1: Seasonal Increase in Mortality in the Winter, Scotland, 1951/52 to 2016/17 .. 45

Figure 2: Seasonal Increase in Mortality in the Winter and mean winter temperature (deg.C.), Scotland: (a) winter 1951/52 to winter 2016/17; and (b) winter 1997/98 to winter 2016/17 .............................................................................. 46

Figure 3: Seasonal Increase in Mortality in the Winter and indicators of influenza activity, Scotland: (a) winters and 'flu seasons - 1971/72 to 2007/08, inclusive; and (b) winters - 2003/04 to 2016/17, inclusive. .............................. 47


Main points The main points in this report are:

There were 20,930 deaths registered in Scotland in the four months of winter 2016/17 (December to March), compared with 20,509 in winter 2015/16.

Comparing the number of deaths in the four winter months with the average for the two adjacent four-month periods, the seasonal increase in mortality in winter 2016/17 was 2,720. This was 130 fewer than the corresponding value of 2,850 for the previous winter.

The seasonal increase in mortality has been calculated for every winter from 1951/52. The seasonal increase of 2,720 in winter 2016/17 was smaller than in most of the previous 65 winters, but exceeded the level seen in 10 of the previous 20 winters, and in 5 of the previous 10 winters.

The long-term trend in the seasonal increase in mortality in the winter has clearly been downward: although there have been unusually large figures in some years (including 4,060 in winter 2014/15, which had the largest value since winter 1999/2000), the height of the peaks has generally been falling.

The 5-year moving average, which smoothes out much of the year to year fluctuation, had tended to decline, but has risen recently (due to for example winter 2014/15 entering the calculation). While the latest value (2,646) is the thirteenth lowest ever, it is greater than 11 of the previous 12 values – but, in several cases, the difference is at most a couple of hundred. Overall, and broadly speaking, the 5-year moving average has not changed much since the early 2000s.

The latest 17 winters have had 7 out of the 10 lowest seasonal increases in mortality ever recorded. Over the 66 years covered by these statistics, the lowest seasonal increase in mortality was for winter 2011/12 (1,420), the second lowest was for winter 2013/14 (1,600), the third lowest was for winter 2005/06 (1,780), the fourth lowest was for winter 2001/02 (1,840), and the fifth lowest was for winter 2012/13 (2,000). The eighth and ninth lowest seasonal increases in mortality were for winter 2007/08 (2,180) and winter 2000/01 (2,220).


1. Introduction

1.1 This release presents provisional data for the seasonal increase in mortality in Scotland in winter 2016/17. The Tables and Figures provide overall data for Scotland for 66 years, breakdowns by age-group for Scotland as a whole for 27 years and for each NHS Board and Local Authority area for 10 years, and the numbers of ‘additional’ deaths by age-group and cause for 11 years. They also give recent years' numbers of deaths registered for Scotland and for NHS Board and Local Authority areas.

1.2 The seasonal increase in mortality in the winter is defined as the difference

between the number of deaths in the four-month 'winter' period (December to March, inclusive) and the average number of deaths in the two four-month periods which precede winter (August to November, inclusive) and follow winter (April to July, inclusive).

1.3 There is no single cause of 'additional' deaths in winter. Very few are caused by

hypothermia. The underlying causes of most of the ‘additional’ deaths are circulatory system diseases (such as coronary heart disease), respiratory system diseases (such as pneumonia), dementia, and Parkinson’s, Alzheimer’s and other degenerative nervous system diseases. In only a small proportion of deaths is influenza recorded as the underlying cause.

2. Commentary

2.1 Table 1 shows recent trends in the seasonal increase in mortality in the winter for Scotland as a whole. It is estimated that there were about 2,720 'additional' deaths in Scotland during winter 2016/17. This was 130 fewer than the corresponding figure of 2,850 for the previous winter. The series starts with winter 1951/52. The seasonal increase of 2,720 in winter 2016/17 was smaller than in 47 of the previous 65 winters, and smaller than the average for those 65 winters (which was roughly 3,860). However, the figure for winter 2016/17 exceeded the level seen in 10 of the previous 20 winters, and in 5 of the previous 10 winters.

2.2 Table 1 also shows the extent to which the seasonal increase in mortality in the

winter affects the elderly, particularly those aged 75 and over. In the past ten winters, the percentage of the additional deaths accounted for by people aged 75 to 84 ranged between 29% (in 2010/11) and 40% (in 2007/08), and people aged 85 and over accounted for between 34% (in 2015/16) and 56% (in 2012/13) of the additional deaths. Overall, taking the average of the ten winters' percentages, around 32% of the additional deaths were of people who were aged 75 to 84, and 43% were of people aged 85 and over. The right-hand part of the table shows the number of additional deaths per 1,000 population in each age-group. It is clear that the seasonal increase in mortality is greatest for those aged 85 and over. For example, winter 2014/15 had almost 17 deaths of people who were aged 85 and over (when they died) per 1,000 people who were aged 85 and over (at mid-2014). On this basis, the worst winters (of those shown in the table) were 1998/99 and 1999/2000, which both had over 20 additional deaths aged 85 and over per 1,000 population aged 85 and over at mid-year. Over the period covered by the table, increases in the size of the population in the older age-groups mean that lower ‘additional death’ rates for each age-group will lead to a particular number of additional deaths. For example, the seasonal increases in mortality in winter


1991/92 and winter 2015/16 were almost the same (2,890 and 2,850, respectively), even though winter 2015/16 had much lower ‘additional death’ rates per 1,000 population in the older age-groups (for example, for those aged 85 and over, 8.38 for winter 2015/16 compared with 13.52 for winter 1991/92).

2.3 Figure 1 shows the seasonal increase in mortality for each winter from 1951/52

individually (the bars) and as a 5-year moving average (the black line) - the latter should give a better guide to the overall trend, as it 'smoothes out' most (but not all) of the effect of year-to-year fluctuations in the figures. The chart shows that there has been an overall downward trend in the number of 'additional' winter deaths over the past 65-or-so years. Although there have been unusually large figures in some years (including 4,060 in winter 2014/15, which was the largest seasonal increase since the 5,190 in winter 1999/2000), the height of the peaks has generally appeared to be falling, and the 5-year moving average had tended to decline. However, there are fluctuations around the overall long-term downward trend, such as the short-term rise in the moving average towards the end of the 1990s, and it has risen recently (due to for example winter 2014/15 entering the calculation). While the latest 5-year moving average (2,646) is the thirteenth lowest value ever, it is greater than 11 of the previous 12 values – but, in several cases, the difference is at most a couple of hundred. Until its latest four values were calculated, the 5-year moving average appeared to have more-or-less 'levelled off' since the early 2000s: the average of the nine values (before the latest four) was 2,509, and seven of those nine values had been within 100 of 2,500. The latest value of the 5-year moving average (2,646) is slightly above the top of that range. It follows that, overall, and broadly speaking, the 5-year moving average has not changed much since the early 2000s.

2.4 Table 2 gives the figures for the 66 winters for which these statistics are available.

The 1,420 'additional' deaths in winter 2011/12 is the lowest figure in the whole series. Winter 2013/14 had the second lowest seasonal increase in mortality (1,600) recorded since the series started in 1951/52. Winter 2005/06 had the third lowest number (1,780), winter 2001/02 had the fourth lowest (1,840), and winter 2012/13 had the fifth lowest (2,000). The winters of 2007/08 and 2000/01 had the eighth and ninth lowest figures (2,180 and 2,220, respectively). As a result, the latest 17 winters have had 7 of the 10 lowest seasonal increases in mortality in the 66 years for which these statistics are available. In addition, as the twelfth and thirteenth lowest figures were 2,450 in winter 2010/11 and 2,510 in winter 2002/03, the latest 17 winters have had 9 of the 13 lowest seasonal increases in mortality. The other winters which had seasonal increases in mortality which were among the 13 lowest such figures were 1966/67 (2,020 - sixth lowest), 1988/89 (2,160 - seventh lowest), 1994/95 (2,310 - tenth lowest) and 1990/91 (2,430 - eleventh lowest).

2.5 Table 3 gives a more detailed breakdown of the seasonal increase in mortality in

the winter by age and NHS Board area. There are some negative figures: these are cases where a particular age-group had fewer deaths in the winter period than the average of the two adjacent non-winter periods. This happens sometimes because the number of deaths may fluctuate 'randomly' during the year. The 'all ages' figures for the seasonal increase in mortality in the winter take account of any negative values for individual age-groups. In this publication, the statistics for each NHS Board area are based on the boundaries which apply with effect from 1 April 2014. The figures for earlier years show what the numbers would have been,


had the new boundaries applied in those years. Table 6 provides the same kinds of figures, but for each Local Authority area.

2.6 Table 8 shows the numbers of ‘additional’ deaths for various categories of

underlying causes of death. They are defined using the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision (ICD-10). There may be some apparently very large Increased Winter Mortality Index values, which are based on small unrounded numbers of deaths. For example, a certain winter would have an Index value of 200 (per cent) for a particular cause of death / age-group ‘cell’ if it had two ‘additional’ deaths and there was, on average, only one death per four month non-winter period. The figures for the latest winter are provisional, and therefore subject to revision, because National Records of Scotland (NRS) has yet to receive final information about the causes of some of the deaths which were registered between January and July of the latest year. However, based on a comparison of ‘provisional’ and ‘final’ figures for winter 2014/15, it seems likely that only a small percentage of the (rounded) numbers of additional deaths will change by more than 10. The categories for which the numbers are most likely to change by more than 10 are ‘other external causes of death’ and ‘ill-defined and unknown causes’: categories for which NRS is more likely to receive further information which changes the classification of the cause of death. (The Index values may have more changes, including apparently large percentage changes, between their provisional and final versions, due to small revisions to the unrounded numbers from which they are calculated.)

2.7 The underlying causes of most of the 2,720 ‘additional’ deaths in winter 2016/17

were circulatory system diseases (330 additional deaths from coronary heart disease, 230 from cerebrovascular disease, and 270 from other circulatory system diseases), respiratory system diseases (390 additional deaths from chronic lower respiratory diseases, 310 from influenza and pneumonia, and 140 from other respiratory system diseases), dementia (460 additional deaths) and Parkinson’s, Alzheimer’s and other degenerative nervous system diseases (250 additional deaths). Taken together, those medical conditions caused 88% of the additional deaths in winter 2016/17 (and between 73% and 95% in each of the other winters shown in the table) even though they are responsible for only about half of all deaths registered in Scotland.

2.8 As the seasonal increase in mortality may fluctuate greatly from winter to winter,

the number of ‘additional’ deaths from a particular cause could vary even more (in percentage terms) between one year and the next. In addition, changes in the software that is used for coding the causes of death have broken the continuity of the figures for certain causes of death. More information about this is available from Section 4 (paragraphs 4.8 and 4.9). So, great caution is required when interpreting apparent changes or trends in the figures for individual causes of death, especially those that are mentioned in Section 4.

2.9 The other tables provide the numbers of deaths registered each winter, and in the

adjacent four-month periods, for Scotland, NHS Board areas and Local Authority areas. They also show the seasonal increase in mortality in the winter (which is sometimes referred to as the 'seasonal difference') that is calculated from those numbers of deaths: Section 4 explains how it is done.


3. Relationship with Overall Mean Winter Temperature and the Level of Influenza Activity

3.1 In general, there are more deaths in colder months, and mortality tends to rise as

temperatures fall. As well as figures for the seasonal increase in mortality, Table 2 also gives the Met Office's overall mean winter temperature for Scotland for each of the years (based on data for December to February, rather than December to March). Figure 2 shows that may be a very slight tendency for the seasonal increase in mortality in the winter to be higher when the overall mean winter temperature is lower, but there is not a clear relationship. Part (a) shows this for all the winters for which figures are available; part (b) does so for the latest 20 winters alone. Here are a couple of examples of winters for which the expected relationship did (more-or-less) apply:

winter 2013/14 was the fourth warmest of the 63 winters for which (at that time) these figures were available, with a mean temperature of 4.15°C, and had the second lowest seasonal increase in mortality (1,600);

winter 2014/15 was, perhaps, a fairly ‘typical’ winter (in terms of its average temperature): it was the 35th coldest out of the 64 winters for which figures were available at that time, and had the 28th largest seasonal increase in mortality in the whole period. (However, the relationship is less clear if one looks only at what were, at that time, the latest twenty winters: in that period, winter 2014/15 was only the eighth coldest but it had had the third largest seasonal increase in mortality.)

On the other hand, there are also examples of winters for which the expected relationship did not apply:

in terms of its average temperature, winter 2010/11 was the fifth coldest in the 60 years from 1951/52 to 2010/11, inclusive: it had a mean winter temperature of 1.28°C. Only four of the 59 preceding winters had a lower mean temperature (1962/63: 0.16°C; 1976/77: 1.02°C; 1978/79: 0.45°C; and 2009/10: 0.39°C) and the average of the mean temperatures for those 59 winters was 2.57°C. Therefore, one might have expected a relatively high seasonal increase in mortality in winter 2010/11. However, the seasonal increase in mortality in winter 2010/11 was (at that time) the ninth lowest figure recorded since the series started in 1951/52;

winter 2011/12 was quite mild, with a mean temperature of 3.56°C. Eight of the preceding 60 winters had higher mean temperatures (ranging from 3.61°C in winter 2007/08 to 5.12°C in winter 1988/89), yet winter 2011/12 had by far the lowest seasonal increase in mortality.

3.2 There may be a number of reasons for the lack of a clear association, for example,

over the years, improvements in home insulation and the spread of central heating will have altered the relationship between the weather outdoors and temperatures indoors. In addition, the overall mean winter temperature may not be a good indicator of the severity of a winter because it is an average over three months: it could therefore suggest that a winter with some extremely cold weeks (in, say, January) was ‘mild’ if the average for the three months were raised by unusually warm weather in, say, December or February.

3.3 Table 2 also includes indicators of the level of influenza activity, which NRS has

calculated from figures for the peak weekly rate (per 100,000 population) for General Practitioner (GP) consultations for influenza-like illnesses (ILI) which were supplied by Health Protection Scotland (HPS). The ‘fluspotter’ surveillance


scheme ran from 1971 to 2008. Since 2009/10 the Scottish Influenza Surveillance Reporting Scheme (SISRS) has provided aggregate level data on GP consultation for ILI, based on automated software extracts from 99% of Scottish GP practices. These data are now used for routine surveillance of ILI in Scotland. (Data from the Pandemic Influenza Primary Care Reporting [PIPeR] sentinel scheme, which started in 2004, have been used retrospectively to calculate comparable historical rates for SISRS for the period 2003/04 to 2008/09.) NRS has expressed each indicator (of the peak weekly rate for GP consultations for ILI over the relevant influenza season) in the form of an index, with the 2004/05 value being 100 in each case (one might expect differences between the two series' index values for the other years which they have in common, because different measuring systems may produce different results).

3.4 Figure 3 suggests that the seasonal increase in mortality in the winter is likely to

be higher when the peak weekly rate for GP consultations for ILI is higher: part (a) shows this using the ‘fluspotter’ data; part (b) does so using the ‘SISRS’ data. However, it will be seen that the relationship between the two numbers is not particularly strong, because there are some winters which had apparently similar levels of influenza activity (measured in terms of the peak weekly rate for GP consultations for ILI) but which had markedly different seasonal increases in mortality. This may be because the peak weekly rate may sometimes be a poor indicator of the total volume of influenza activity. For example, an ‘influenza season’ with a below-average peak weekly rate could have more cases than a ‘normal’ season if it lasted much longer than usual. In addition, the time of the year when influenza is at its highest may not be within the four winter months (as defined for the purpose of these statistics), which may reduce the statistical correlation between influenza activity and the seasonal increase in mortality. This can be seen from HPS's regular Influenza Updates (available on their website) which include a chart comparing the latest and the previous influenza seasons' GP consultation rates for flu. For example, the updates produced in April 2010 show that influenza in the 2009/10 season peaked in early November 2009 - which was before the start of what is defined as ‘winter 2009/10’ for the statistics of the seasonal increase in mortality in the winter.

3.5 Some of the winters which had particularly high seasonal increases in mortality

were in periods with apparently unusually high levels of influenza activity (for example 1975/76 and 1989/90), but there have also been occasions when the relationship was less clear. Examples of the latter are winter 1971/72, which had a very high level of influenza activity, but its seasonal increase in mortality did not differ greatly from the 5-year moving average; and winter 2014/15, which had a relatively low level of influenza activity, when measured in terms of the peak rate for GP consultations, but a seasonal increase in mortality that was unusually high for the 21st century. The large seasonal increase in mortality in winter 2014/15 is believed to be due to the impact of the main influenza strain that was circulating at that time (influenza A H3N2), for three reasons. First, older people have demonstrated increased susceptibility to this strain and are more vulnerable to increased winter mortality. Second, the 2014/15 ‘influenza season’ (as determined by the results of laboratory testing of swabs from sentinel general practices) was much longer than normal (around 20 weeks, rather than the usual 6-8 weeks). Third, while the vaccine which the World Health Organisation recommended (in February 2014) for use in Northern hemisphere countries over winter 2014/15 provided protection against a number of influenza strains, it was less successful in

http://www.hps.scot.nhs.uk/resp/influenzareports.aspx


protecting against H3N2. The vaccine was less effective than anticipated because the majority of the influenza A H3N2 viruses that were found to have circulated in Europe during the 2014/15 ‘influenza season’ had ‘drifted’ from the vaccine strain. The mismatch between the vaccine and what turned out to be the dominant influenza strain was revealed by early and sustained pressure on elderly residential care settings with high uptake of seasonal influenza vaccine due to outbreaks of influenza H3N2. The patterns of influenza rates and changes in mortality rates seen in Scotland in winter 2014/15 were similar to those of a number of other EU countries.

3.6 The last winter with an apparently high level of influenza incidence was winter

1999/2000, when the seasonal increase in mortality was 5,190. Since then, the number of ‘additional’ deaths in winter had tended to fluctuate around about half of that level (this has, very broadly, been between roughly 2,000 and 3,000), with some exceptions (such as the values of 3,510 in winter 2008/09, 1,420 in winter 2011/12, 1,600 in winter 2013/14 and 4,060 in winter 2014/15).

3.7 Influenza may increase the mortality rate for vulnerable people, such as the elderly

and those with long-term health conditions, like cancer and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), by making them more vulnerable to the effects of existing health problems. Influenza and other respiratory system diseases may affect the circulatory system and trigger coronary heart disease or cerebrovascular disease. In such cases, the medical condition (for example COPD or heart disease) may be recorded as the cause of death, as influenza itself is mentioned on relatively few death certificates. Information about the numbers of deaths from different causes is given in the Vital Events Reference Tables on the NRS website. There, Table 6.01 shows that, in most years, relatively few deaths are registered for which the underlying cause is recorded as influenza (ICD-10 codes J09-J11): for example, 10 in 2008, 12 in 2010, 19 in 2012 and 23 in 2014. In recent years, the largest such figure was 94 deaths registered in 2015 (which is small in relation to the seasonal increase in mortality of 4,060 in winter 2014/15 – refer to Table 1); the second-largest was 79 in 2016 (again small relative to the seasonal increase of 2,850 in winter 2015/16); and the third-largest number of influenza deaths registered in recent years was 62 in 2009 (also small in relation to the seasonal increase in mortality of 3,510 in winter 2008/09). That figure of 62 includes all the deaths for which the underlying cause was H1N1/’swine' flu that were registered in 2009. H1N1/'swine' flu accounted for only a small proportion of winter 2009/10's seasonal increase in mortality. The HPS Influenza Update dated 15 April 2010 stated that ‘the total number of reports received of deaths among those with confirmed Influenza A H1N1v in Scotland remains at 69’, a figure which covers the period since H1N1/'swine' flu started in Scotland in Spring 2009, so the number of H1N1/'swine' flu deaths included in the figure for the seasonal increase in mortality in winter 2009/10 will be less than that.

http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/vital-events/vital-events-reference-tables

http://www.hps.scot.nhs.uk/resp/influenzareports.aspx


4. How the Seasonal Increase in Mortality in the Winter is Calculated

4.1 The seasonal increase in mortality in the winter is defined as the difference between the number of deaths in the four-month ‘winter’ period (December to March, inclusive) and the average number of deaths in the two four-month periods which precede winter (August to November) and follow winter (April to July). This is a standard definition which is used by the Office for National Statistics, the World Health Organisation and others (who may describe it as – for example - ‘excess winter deaths’ or ‘excess winter mortality’).

4.2 Some of the previous editions of this publication were called ‘Increased Winter

Mortality’ and ‘Excess Winter Mortality’. The title was changed to reduce the likelihood of misunderstandings (because someone seeing, say, ‘Increased W inter Mortality in Scotland, 2009/10’ might wrongly infer that there had been an increase in winter mortality in that year).

4.3 The numbers of deaths registered each winter, and in the adjacent four-month

periods, are provided in Table 4, along with figures for the seasonal increase in mortality in the winter (sometimes referred to as the ‘seasonal difference’) which have been calculated from those numbers of deaths.

4.4 Table 4 shows that 20,930 deaths were registered in Scotland in the four months

of winter 2016/17 (December 2016 to March 2017). This was more than in the preceding 4-month period (August 2016 to November 2016: 18,335 deaths) and in the following 4-month period (April 2017 to July 2017: 18,095 deaths). Comparing the four winter months with the average of the 4-month periods before and after the winter, and rounding the result to the nearest ten, gives a figure for increased winter mortality of 2,720 for winter 2016/17. The corresponding figures for the other winters were calculated using the same method.

4.5 Table 5 provides the same kind of information as Table 4 but for each NHS Board

area for the latest four years, in order to provide examples of the calculation of the seasonal increase in mortality for NHS Board areas; Table 7 does the same for each Local Authority area.

4.6 The figures in Table 4 may be used to compare winters in terms of their actual

numbers of deaths as well as on the basis of their seasonal increases in mortality. In terms of the numbers of deaths registered in Scotland, winter 2014/15 was unusually bad compared to the previous 14 and subsequent two winters. The 22,013 deaths registered in the four months of winter 2014/15 was the highest number that had been recorded since winter 1999/2000 (when 23,379 deaths were registered). In contrast, the 18,675 deaths registered in Scotland in the four months of the previous winter (2013/14) was the lowest number for any of the 27 winters that are shown in Table 4. It was also the lowest value for any of the 66 winters for which those values have been calculated, which start with winter 1951/52. This is because, of the winters from 1951/52 to 1989/90 (which are not shown in Table 4), the one with the fewest deaths was winter 1966/67, when 21,431 deaths were registered.

4.7 In terms of the number of deaths registered, winter 2016/17 (with 20,930) was

closer than winters 2013/14 and 2014/15 to the annual average for the other 15 winters in the 21st century (which was 20,413 for the winters from 1999/2000 to


2012/13, inclusive, plus winter 2015/16). On this basis, winter 2016/17 was the fifth worst of the 18 winters so far this century,. Five of this century’s other winters had broadly similar numbers of deaths to winter 2016/17 (between 20,509 and 21,058), two (including winter 2014/15) had at least 500 more deaths than winter 2016/17, and ten (including winter 2013/14) had at least 500 fewer deaths than winter 2016/17.

4.8 The seasonal increase in deaths from a particular cause is calculated as described

in paragraph 4.1, but using only figures for deaths with that underlying cause. However, from time to time, changes in the automatic cause of death coding software used by NRS have caused breaks in the continuity of the statistics for some causes of death. The figures in Table 8 are affected by coding changes which were made with effect from the start of 2011 and 2017. They broke the continuity of the seasonal increase in mortality for some causes of death around winter 2010/11 and around winter 2016/17, because the seasonal increases for (for example)

winter 2009/10 were calculated wholly from data coded by the ‘old’ software (that used for deaths that were registered up to the end of 2010);

winter 2010/11 were calculated from some data coded by the ‘old’ software (for deaths registered from August 2010 to December 2010) and some coded by the ‘new’ software (for deaths registered from January 2011 to July 2011);

winter 2011/12 were calculated wholly from data coded by the ‘new’ software (that used for deaths that were registered from the start of 2011).

4.9 Papers on the software changes (available from the Death Certificates and Coding

the Causes of Death page of the NRS website) describe the causes of death most affected by the changes in the coding software. From such information, it is clear that (of the causes of death shown in Table 8) the ones most affected by, and the effect on their numbers from, the changes in the software are as follows:

2011 changes: o influenza and pneumonia – reduction in numbers due to the change; o other respiratory system diseases – reduction; o dementia – increase; o other mental and behavioural disorders – reduction; o Parkinson’s, Alzheimer’s and other degenerative nervous system

diseases – increase; o genitourinary system diseases – reduction; o other external causes of death – increase;

2017 changes: o other respiratory system diseases – reduction; o dementia – increase; o Parkinson’s, Alzheimer’s and other degenerative nervous system

diseases – increase. The above causes are listed in the order in which they appear in Table 8. It is not possible to quantify the effect on their figures because (in general) the papers’ estimates of such effects are for different causes (or groups thereof). From the papers, one can determine which of Table 8’s categories would be affected markedly by the software changes, and whether their numbers would have increased or decreased as a result, but not by how much their seasonal increases might have changed (which, in any case, could well be small relative to some of the year-to-year fluctuations in the seasonal increase in mortality).

https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/vital-events/deaths/deaths-background-information/death-certificates-and-coding-the-causes-of-death

https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/vital-events/deaths/deaths-background-information/death-certificates-and-coding-the-causes-of-death


5. Background: about these statistics

5.1 This is an annual publication. National Records of Scotland (NRS) collects the underlying data on a daily basis, as and when each event is registered. The statistics for the latest winter are all new. The figures for the previous winter may have been revised very slightly.

5.2 Information about (for example) the sources, methods, definitions and reliability of

these statistics is available from the following NRS web site pages general background information on Vital Events statistics and background information on points which are specific to statistics about deaths. These figures are directly comparable with those for other parts of the United Kingdom (UK), there are no significant differences across the UK in how Vital Events data are collected and processed.

5.3 The figures for the latest winter, and the subsequent four month period, given here

are provisional. They were produced from the information that NRS held about deaths which had been registered by (roughly) five weeks before the date on which this release was published. By law, a death which occurs in Scotland must be registered within eight days. Therefore, hardly any deaths which occurred in the winter (December to March), or in the subsequent four month period (April to July), will not have been registered in time to be included in NRS's statistical database before the tables for this release were produced. However, the figures could change slightly, because ‘late’ registrations occur occasionally, in unusual circumstances. NRS does not ‘freeze’ its statistical data for a given year until it starts to prepare the final statistics for the calendar year as a whole, which are published in the following summer.

5.4 Statistics of the seasonal increase in mortality in the winter inform public debate

and the development of government policy on matters such as the health of the elderly population, fuel poverty and whether there is a need to improve the housing stock in terms of central heating and thermal insulation.

5.5 A separate document, Increased Winter Mortality - Background Note (PDF 39 Kb),

published in October 2010 (available on the NRS website), gives information about some of the medical causes of the seasonal increase in mortality in the winter, describes some research studies' findings on factors that influence it, reports on a comparison of the figures for a number of European countries, mentions previous publications on this topic, and provides references to the sources of the material. The main points to note are:

high cold-related mortality is associated with low indoor temperatures, and with people not wearing appropriate clothing when outdoors in cold weather;

increased winter mortality was at the same level in Scotland as the overall mean for the 14 European countries covered by a comparative study; and

the seasonal increase in mortality in the winter is higher in countries with a warmer winter climate, probably because their homes tend to be poorly insulated and their populations tend not to dress well for cold weather.

5.6 The United Kingdom Statistics Authority has designated these statistics as

National Statistics, in accordance with the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007 and signifying compliance with the Code of Practice for Official Statistics.

http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/vital-events/general-background-information

http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/vital-events/general-background-information

http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/vital-events/deaths/deaths-background-information

http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/vital-events/deaths/deaths-background-information

http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/vital-events/deaths/winter-mortality


5.7 Designation can be broadly interpreted to mean that the statistics:

meet identified user needs;

are well explained and readily accessible;

are produced according to sound methods, and

are managed impartially and objectively in the public interest. 5.8 Once statistics have been designated as National Statistics it is a statutory

requirement that the Code of Practice shall continue to be observed.


Table 1: The Seasonal Increase in Mortality in the Winter by age group, Scotland, 1990/91 to 2016/17

0-64 65-74 75-84 85+ All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+ All ages

1990/91 230 580 750 880 2,430 0.05 1.33 2.88 13.06 0.48

1991/92 350 560 1,020 950 2,890 0.08 1.27 3.94 13.52 0.57

1992/93 280 550 950 960 2,740 0.06 1.23 3.71 13.24 0.54

1993/94 350 440 990 800 2,590 0.08 0.97 3.97 10.71 0.51

1994/95 240 380 930 760 2,310 0.06 0.83 3.82 9.91 0.45

1995/96 250 860 1,420 1,120 3,650 0.06 1.91 5.65 14.09 0.72

1996/97 320 630 1,350 1,350 3,640 0.07 1.41 5.27 16.65 0.71

1997/98 170 730 950 760 2,610 0.04 1.64 3.65 9.19 0.51

1998/99 380 790 1,660 1,920 4,750 0.09 1.77 6.33 22.65 0.94

1999/2000 650 970 1,820 1,750 5,190 0.15 2.18 6.88 20.32 1.02

2000/01 260 370 820 760 2,220 0.06 0.83 3.08 8.67 0.44

2001/02 80 230 820 710 1,840 0.02 0.51 3.02 8.00 0.36

2002/03 350 300 940 920 2,510 0.08 0.67 3.37 10.78 0.50

2003/04 320 510 840 1,170 2,840 0.08 1.13 2.97 14.00 0.56

2004/05 200 430 1,030 1,090 2,760 0.05 0.94 3.59 13.16 0.54

2005/06 330 280 550 610 1,780 0.08 0.61 1.92 6.89 0.35

2006/07 190 410 980 1,180 2,750 0.04 0.90 3.42 12.57 0.54

2007/08 130 320 880 850 2,180 0.03 0.70 3.04 8.79 0.42

2008/09 370 590 1,170 1,370 3,510 0.09 1.27 4.00 13.88 0.67

2009/10 460 370 890 1,040 2,760 0.11 0.78 3.01 10.27 0.53

2010/11 410 430 720 890 2,450 0.09 0.90 2.40 8.57 0.47

2011/12 230 110 440 650 1,420 0.05 0.23 1.44 6.07 0.27

2012/13 90 190 600 1,120 2,000 0.02 0.37 1.94 10.25 0.38

2013/14 140 210 530 730 1,600 0.03 0.40 1.69 6.59 0.30

2014/15 270 610 1,240 1,940 4,060 0.06 1.14 3.89 16.96 0.76

2015/16 450 530 910 970 2,850 0.10 0.97 2.83 8.38 0.53

2016/17 provisional 200 280 810 1,430 2,720 0.05 0.50 2.51 12.01 0.50

Footnotes

Seasonal increase in mortality 1, 2

at the mid-year before the winter 3

2) Because of the approximate nature of this measure, numbers have been rounded independently to the nearest 10. The sum of the age group f igures may,

therefore, differ from the 'all ages' total.

1) The 'Seasonal Increase in Mortality in the Winter' has been defined as the difference betw een the number of deaths in the four 'w inter' months (December to

March) and the average of the numbers of deaths in the preceding (August to November) and follow ing (April to July) non-w inter four-month periods.

by age at death

Seasonal increase per 1,000 population

3) For example the (rounded) seasonal increase in mortality for those w ho died aged 85+ in w inter 1990/91, expressed per 1,000 population aged 85+ in mid-1990.

There is a minor discrepancy betw een the numerator and the denominator, because they cover slightly different populations. For example, some of the people w ho

died aged 85+ in w inter 1990/91, or in the preceding and subsequent four-month non-w inter periods, w ould have been aged only 84 at mid-1990, and so w ould

have been counted in the '75-84 at mid-1990' age-group (rather than in the '85+ at mid-1990' age-group). How ever, this should not affect greatly the rates per

1,000 population, and so should not alter signif icantly the main patterns show n by the f igures or the conclusions that may be draw n from them.


Table 2: The Seasonal Increase in Mortality in the Winter, mean winter temperature and indicators of level of influenza activity, Scotland, 1951/52 to 2016/17

Year

Additional

deaths

(Dec-Mar)

5-year

moving

average

Mean winter

temperature2

(deg. C.)

'Fluspotter' 'SISRS'

1951/52 5,240 1.89

1952/53 5,890 2.94

1953/54 4,770 5,634 2.70

1954/55 5,820 5,140 1.41

1955/56 6,450 4,854 1.52

1956/57 2,770 5,734 3.47

1957/58 4,460 5,388 2.06

1958/59 9,170 5,166 1.66

1959/60 4,090 5,630 2.12

1960/61 5,340 6,160 2.56

1961/62 5,090 5,068 2.13

1962/63 7,110 5,092 0.16

1963/64 3,710 5,294 3.09

1964/65 4,210 4,680 1.87

1965/66 6,350 4,378 1.60

1966/67 2,020 4,596 3.00

1967/68 5,600 5,162 1.91

1968/69 4,800 4,434 1.55

1969/70 7,040 5,024 1.52

1970/71 2,710 4,720 3.41

1971/72 4,970 4,322 3.56 3,412

1972/73 4,080 3,606 3.23 1,286

1973/74 2,810 4,352 3.50 2,081

1974/75 3,460 4,064 3.88 1,144

1975/76 6,440 4,218 3.72 2,951

1976/77 3,530 4,494 1.02 656

1977/78 4,850 4,336 1.77 2,214

1978/79 4,190 3,802 0.45 951

1979/80 2,670 4,356 2.47 967

1980/81 3,770 4,300 2.97 800

1981/82 6,300 4,020 1.36 1,542

1982/83 4,570 4,112 2.49 1,309

1983/84 2,790 4,300 2.53 1,698

1984/85 3,130 3,688 2.12 705

1985/86 4,710 3,292 1.28 1,107

1986/87 3,240 3,166 2.00 847

1987/88 2,590 3,632 3.14 337

1988/89 2,160 3,176 5.12 819

1989/90 5,460 3,106 3.34 2,753

1990/91 2,430 3,136 1.99 319

1991/92 2,890 3,222 3.94 928

1992/93 2,740 2,592 3.42 979

1993/94 2,590 2,836 1.77 2,053

1994/95 2,310 2,986 2.89 219

1995/96 3,650 2,960 1.76 907

Seasonal increase in

mortality in the winter1

Indicators of influenza activity3

(Index: 2004/05 = 100)


Table 2, continued

Year

Additional

deaths

(Dec-Mar)

5-year

moving

average

Mean winter

temperature2

(deg. C.)

'Fluspotter' 'SISRS'


mortality in the winter1

Indicators of influenza activity3

(Index: 2004/05 = 100)

1996/97 3,640 3,392 2.48 1,763

1997/98 2,610 3,968 4.51 272

1998/99 4,750 3,682 3.26 718

1999/00 5,190 3,322 3.03 1,973

2000/01 2,220 3,302 2.16 144

2001/02 1,840 2,920 3.39 95

2002/03 2,510 2,434 2.96 98

2003/04 2,840 2,346 3.20 321 107

2004/05 2,760 2,528 3.94 100 100

2005/06 1,780 2,462 3.35 77 92

2006/07 2,750 2,596 4.34 367 221

2007/08 2,180 2,596 3.61 116 94

2008/09 3,510 2,730 2.60 230

2009/10 2,760 2,464 0.39 147

2010/11 2,450 2,428 1.28 174

2011/12 1,420 2,046 3.56 13

2012/13 2,000 2,306 2.49 37

2013/14 1,600 2,386 4.15 15

2014/15 4,060 2,646 2.87 32

2015/16 2,850 3.62 21

2016/17 prov. 2,720 4.42 16

Footnotes

Please note that since the 'f luspotter' and 'SISRS' systems measure activity using different methods and definitions, their results are not

directly comparable.

The index values have been calculated from the maximum rate (per 100,000 population) in each f lu season.

1) The 'Seasonal Increase in Mortality in the Winter' has been defined as the difference betw een the number of deaths in the four 'w inter'

months (December - March) and the average of the numbers of deaths in the preceding (August - November) and follow ing (April - July)

non-w inter four-month periods.

2) The mean w inter temperature for Scotland (for December to February), as obtained from the Met Office w ebsite (for the relevant page

click: Home - Public - Weather - UK Climate - Climate Summaries - Dow nload regional values, and then select the link for 'Scotland .... Mean

Temp' w hich appears under the 'Year ordered statistics' heading).

3) Indicators of the numbers of General Practitioner (GP) consultations for influenza-like illness, calculated from figures w hich w ere

supplied by Health Protection Scotland (HPS).

The ‘f luspotter’ surveillance scheme, w hich ran from 1971 to 2008, w as superseded by the Pandemic Influenza Primary Care Reporting

(PIPeR) sentinel scheme, w hich started in 2004. How ever, due to a change in the softw are used by GP practices, it w as not possible to

use PIPeR for the surveillance of GP consultation rates for influenza-like illnesses (ILI) w ith effect from w inter 2011/12.

Since 2009/10 the Scottish Influenza Surveillance Reporting Scheme (SISRS) has provided aggregate level data on GP consultation for ILI,

based on automated softw are extracts from 99 per cent of Scottish GP practices. These data are now used for routine surveillance of ILI

in Scotland, and data from the PIPeR sentinel scheme have been used retrospectively to calculate comparable historical rates for SISRS

for the period 2003/04 to 2008/09. A technical guide providing more details on SISRS data is available from the HPS w ebsite on seasonal

influenza surveillance.


Table 3: The Seasonal Increase in Mortality in the Winter and the Increased Winter Mortality Index, by age group and NHS Board area of usual residence, 2007/08 to 2016/17

Scotland

All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+ All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+

2007/08 2,180 130 320 880 850 12 3 9 16 17

2008/09 3,510 370 590 1,170 1,370 21 10 18 22 28

2009/10 2,760 460 370 890 1,040 16 13 11 17 21

2010/11 2,450 410 430 720 890 14 12 13 14 17

2011/12 1,420 230 110 440 650 8 7 3 8 12

2012/13 2,000 90 190 600 1,120 11 3 6 11 20

2013/14 1,600 140 210 530 730 9 4 6 10 14

2014/15 4,060 270 610 1,240 1,940 23 8 18 23 33

2015/16 2,850 450 530 910 970 16 13 16 17 17

2016/17 (P) 2,720 200 280 810 1,430 15 6 8 15 24

All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+ All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+

2007/08 140 -10 30 40 90 10 . 9 8 23

2008/09 380 30 50 160 140 29 11 19 42 35

2009/10 190 10 10 90 70 14 4 5 23 19

2010/11 200 20 30 70 90 15 6 13 15 22

2011/12 70 -10 20 60 -10 5 . 9 16 .

2012/13 150 -30 10 80 90 10 . 4 17 21

2013/14 160 50 10 20 80 11 19 3 5 19

2014/15 300 10 30 120 130 21 6 10 27 29

2015/16 180 0 60 90 30 13 0 20 23 7

2016/17 (P) 240 0 30 40 170 17 1 12 8 40

Borders

All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+ All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+

2007/08 80 20 10 0 40 19 32 19 0 36

2008/09 100 10 20 40 30 24 15 23 34 21

2009/10 50 -10 10 20 30 12 . 9 18 25

2010/11 70 10 20 10 30 19 21 39 6 22

2011/12 40 -10 20 20 10 9 . 26 19 4

2012/13 70 0 -10 40 40 16 . . 31 24

2013/14 10 -10 -10 10 20 3 . . 11 11

2014/15 120 10 20 30 60 28 23 30 19 36

2015/16 70 0 20 20 30 19 5 31 19 19

2016/17 (P) 60 10 20 0 20 14 21 28 3 14

All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+ All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+

2007/08 90 30 10 30 20 16 37 7 13 15

2008/09 140 20 30 40 40 25 23 29 25 24

2009/10 100 10 10 30 50 18 12 12 17 27

2010/11 50 20 10 10 20 8 17 7 4 9

2011/12 20 -20 -20 10 40 3 . . 6 19

2012/13 40 0 -10 20 40 7 . . 10 18

2013/14 110 20 30 20 40 19 24 28 10 21

2014/15 160 10 30 50 60 26 18 23 28 29

2015/16 130 20 30 20 50 23 30 28 13 27

2016/17 (P) 130 -10 30 60 50 22 . 29 34 21

Ayrshire & Arran

Dumfries & Galloway

Increased Winter Mortality Index3, 4

Seasonal increase in mortality in the winter 1, 2




Seasonal increase in mortality in the winter 1, 2 Increased Winter Mortality Index3, 4



Table 3, continued

Fife

All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+ All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+

2007/08 210 10 10 80 110 17 3 3 21 33

2008/09 280 10 60 80 130 23 6 25 21 36

2009/10 190 30 40 60 60 16 14 17 16 16

2010/11 90 30 -10 50 20 7 13 . 12 6

2011/12 120 20 50 -10 60 10 8 23 . 15

2012/13 140 -10 60 30 70 11 . 27 7 16

2013/14 40 0 -10 0 50 3 2 . 1 13

2014/15 250 0 30 90 130 20 2 14 24 31

2015/16 230 30 40 110 50 18 15 17 30 12

2016/17 (P) 160 0 30 60 70 12 . 11 16 16

Forth Valley

All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+ All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+

2007/08 110 20 -10 50 60 12 9 . 15 21

2008/09 280 40 40 90 110 32 21 23 32 45

2009/10 100 20 20 -10 70 11 14 10 . 25

2010/11 140 30 30 30 40 15 16 18 11 17

2011/12 60 0 -10 40 30 6 . . 13 10

2012/13 90 10 -20 30 60 9 7 . 11 22

2013/14 70 -10 10 30 50 8 . 4 11 16

2014/15 230 30 20 60 130 25 15 10 18 46

2015/16 150 40 -10 100 30 15 19 . 33 10

2016/17 (P) 70 10 0 20 40 7 4 1 5 14

Grampian

All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+ All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+

2007/08 250 20 50 100 70 15 7 16 19 14

2008/09 270 20 50 60 150 16 5 16 11 30

2009/10 210 40 30 50 100 13 12 10 9 18

2010/11 250 20 40 80 120 15 6 15 15 22

2011/12 180 40 10 70 70 11 14 2 13 12

2012/13 170 30 30 -10 120 10 9 10 . 22

2013/14 230 20 50 60 110 14 6 18 10 20

2014/15 430 10 60 100 260 24 4 19 18 44

2015/16 270 30 40 50 140 15 9 14 11 24

2016/17 (P) 280 20 -30 110 180 16 6 . 21 29

All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+ All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+

2007/08 560 50 90 230 200 14 5 10 18 19

2008/09 740 100 140 180 320 19 11 18 15 31

2009/10 540 120 60 200 160 14 14 8 17 15

2010/11 560 130 90 140 210 14 14 12 12 20

2011/12 250 40 30 60 120 6 4 4 5 10

2012/13 410 40 20 100 250 10 4 2 8 22

2013/14 300 0 100 110 90 8 . 14 9 8

2014/15 950 110 170 290 390 24 13 24 24 33

2015/16 560 120 70 180 190 14 15 9 15 17

2016/17 (P) 530 30 40 180 280 13 4 6 15 24

Greater Glasgow & Clyde5









Table 3, continued

Highland5

All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+ All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+

2007/08 80 0 0 -10 80 7 0 1 . 26

2008/09 150 0 40 30 70 13 1 18 10 23

2009/10 200 40 30 50 80 19 20 13 15 25

2010/11 110 10 40 20 40 10 3 22 6 12

2011/12 90 20 -10 40 40 8 10 . 11 11

2012/13 140 20 10 60 60 13 9 4 19 15

2013/14 100 0 30 40 40 10 0 15 13 11

2014/15 130 -40 30 50 90 11 . 12 14 22

2015/16 290 60 60 60 110 27 30 29 20 30

2016/17 (P) 190 10 10 70 100 17 3 6 21 26

Lanarkshire

All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+ All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+

2007/08 280 -20 40 190 70 13 . 10 29 12

2008/09 520 90 100 200 140 26 19 23 33 27

2009/10 460 110 60 170 120 22 24 14 26 24

2010/11 330 50 70 90 120 16 12 16 14 23

2011/12 210 50 -20 60 110 10 12 . 10 18

2012/13 300 30 60 110 110 14 6 14 15 18

2013/14 210 20 0 80 110 10 5 0 12 18

2014/15 510 20 120 170 210 23 4 27 23 33

2015/16 360 30 100 100 130 17 7 24 15 21

2016/17 (P) 340 70 30 110 140 15 15 6 15 21

Lothian

All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+ All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+

2007/08 220 10 50 90 70 9 3 13 11 9

2008/09 420 30 70 170 150 18 5 17 24 20

2009/10 380 40 60 110 170 17 9 14 15 25

2010/11 390 90 50 150 100 17 19 11 22 14

2011/12 210 80 10 30 90 8 16 2 4 11

2012/13 290 -10 50 100 140 12 . 12 14 17

2013/14 280 40 0 110 130 12 10 . 16 17

2014/15 480 30 50 160 240 20 7 12 22 28

2015/16 320 50 120 80 80 13 10 27 11 10

2016/17 (P) 320 30 60 60 170 13 7 15 8 20

Orkney

All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+ All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+

2007/08 0 0 -10 10 0 1 16 . 30 13

2008/09 10 0 10 -10 10 14 9 42 . 51

2009/10 0 0 0 0 0 . 9 . 8 .

2010/11 10 10 0 10 0 19 58 . 37 11

2011/12 -10 0 0 -10 0 . 5 4 . 19

2012/13 10 0 0 0 0 9 8 . 13 15

2013/14 10 10 0 0 -10 11 100 14 10 .

2014/15 10 0 0 10 10 17 27 . 33 24

2015/16 0 0 0 10 0 6 4 8 41 .

2016/17 (P) 0 0 10 -10 0 . 4 46 . .








Table 3, continued

Shetland

All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+ All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+

2007/08 10 0 0 10 0 10 4 . 50 5

2008/09 0 -10 0 0 10 2 . 29 . 28

2009/10 10 0 0 0 10 17 29 . 12 28

2010/11 10 0 0 10 0 17 36 25 43 .

2011/12 -10 0 0 0 0 . . . . .

2012/13 0 -10 0 10 0 . . 13 44 .

2013/14 0 0 0 0 10 6 3 . . 54

2014/15 20 0 0 10 10 23 10 . 32 45

2015/16 10 0 0 10 0 8 36 . 26 .

2016/17 (P) 10 0 0 0 10 17 38 26 . 37

Tayside

All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+ All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+

2007/08 150 -20 50 70 50 10 . 19 14 11

2008/09 220 40 0 90 100 16 15 . 20 22

2009/10 300 30 50 100 130 22 11 20 23 28

2010/11 220 0 40 70 110 16 0 17 16 24

2011/12 180 10 20 70 80 12 4 8 16 16

2012/13 190 20 -10 40 140 13 7 . 8 28

2013/14 80 0 10 40 20 6 1 6 10 5

2014/15 430 40 50 130 210 30 17 20 30 41

2015/16 240 60 10 70 110 16 22 2 16 22

2016/17 (P) 340 30 30 110 180 23 11 10 25 34

All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+ All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+

2007/08 10 10 0 20 -10 5 23 . 48 .

2008/09 10 -10 0 20 -10 8 . 12 61 .

2009/10 40 10 10 20 0 35 53 29 84 .

2010/11 0 0 0 0 -10 . . 24 3 .

2011/12 30 10 10 0 10 20 53 22 . 29

2012/13 20 10 10 0 10 15 52 37 . 15

2013/14 -10 0 -10 10 0 . . . 21 .

2014/15 30 20 0 10 10 31 94 17 30 14

2015/16 40 10 10 10 10 38 44 59 27 32

2016/17 (P) 30 0 10 10 10 31 24 35 29 34

Footnotes

4) The IWM Index has not been calculated w hen the number of 'additional' w inter deaths w as negative.



non-w inter four-month periods. A negative f igure occurs w hen there w ere few er deaths during the w inter period than the average of the

tw o 'non-w inter' periods.

2) Because of the approximate nature of this measure, numbers have been rounded independently to the nearest 10. The sum of the age

group f igures may therefore appear to differ from the 'all ages' total.

(P) Data for the latest year are provisional.






3) The Increased Winter Mortality (IWM) Index is the (unrounded) number of 'additional' w inter deaths divided by the (unrounded) average

number of deaths in a four month 'non-w inter' period, expressed as a percentage.

5) The statistics for each board's area are based on the boundaries that apply w ith effect from 1 April 2014. Figures for earlier years show

w hat the numbers w ould have been had the new boundaries applied in those years (and up to 2012-13 have been revised, w here

appropriate, from w hat w as published up until Autumn 2013). Figures for 'Greater Glasgow & Clyde' and 'Highland' include deaths in the

relevant parts of the former NHS Argyll and Clyde area.

Western Isles


Table 4: The Seasonal Increase in Mortality in the Winter – the underlying numbers of registrations of deaths, Scotland, 1990/91 to 2016/17

Period

Winter

(Dec - Mar)

Preceding

period

(Aug - Nov)

Following

period

(Apr - Jul)

(actual) (rounded)

1990/91 21,859 19,103 19,752 2,432 2,430

1991/92 22,217 19,305 19,352 2,889 2,890

1992/93 22,416 19,417 19,929 2,743 2,740

1993/94 22,504 21,104 18,732 2,586 2,590

1994/95 21,510 19,103 19,301 2,308 2,310

1995/96 22,821 19,074 19,260 3,654 3,650

1996/97 22,438 18,585 19,005 3,643 3,640

1997/98 21,320 18,311 19,105 2,612 2,610

1998/99 23,163 18,856 17,973 4,749 4,750

1999/2000 23,379 18,407 17,974 5,189 5,190

2000/01 20,388 18,061 18,281 2,217 2,220

2001/02 20,366 18,239 18,815 1,839 1,840

2002/03 21,058 18,599 18,499 2,509 2,510

2003/04 21,024 18,616 17,749 2,842 2,840

2004/05 20,658 18,064 17,736 2,758 2,760

2005/06 19,651 17,619 18,127 1,778 1,780

2006/07 20,384 17,526 17,739 2,752 2,750

2007/08 19,900 17,600 17,850 2,175 2,180

2008/09 20,532 17,075 16,969 3,510 3,510

2009/10 19,688 17,059 16,789 2,764 2,760

2010/11 19,626 17,397 16,958 2,449 2,450

2011/12 19,119 17,269 18,127 1,421 1,420

2012/13 19,908 17,773 18,045 1,999 2,000

2013/14 18,675 16,848 17,297 1,603 1,600

2014/15 22,013 17,493 18,410 4,062 4,060

2015/16 20,509 17,625 17,686 2,854 2,850

2016/17 provisional 20,930 18,335 18,095 2,715 2,720

Footnote

Number of deaths registered

Seasonal increase in mortality

in the winter (or seasonal

difference)1

1) The 'Seasonal Increase in Mortality in the Winter' has been defined as the difference betw een the number of deaths in the

four 'w inter' months (December - March) and the average of the numbers of deaths in the preceding (August - November)

and follow ing (April - July) non-w inter four-month periods.


Table 5: The Seasonal Increase in Mortality in the Winter - the underlying numbers of registrations of deaths, by NHS Board area of usual residence, 2013/14 to 2016/17

NHS Board

area2 Period

Winter

(Dec - Mar)

Preceding

period

(Aug - Nov)

Following

period

(Apr - Jul)

(actual) (rounded)

2013/14 1,552 1,398 1,395 156 160

2014/15 1,752 1,398 1,508 299 300

2015/16 1,587 1,436 1,377 181 180

2016/17 provisional 1,660 1,460 1,374 243 240

Borders

2013/14 414 372 431 13 10

2014/15 569 439 451 124 120

2015/16 467 382 405 74 70

2016/17 provisional 476 420 416 58 60

2013/14 697 554 615 113 110

2014/15 746 579 602 156 160

2015/16 701 556 587 130 130

2016/17 provisional 723 567 617 131 130

Fife

2013/14 1,217 1,174 1,179 41 40

2014/15 1,493 1,186 1,295 253 250

2015/16 1,477 1,208 1,285 231 230

2016/17 provisional 1,501 1,293 1,384 163 160

2013/14 1,002 943 916 73 70

2014/15 1,177 916 974 232 230

2015/16 1,134 980 992 148 150

2016/17 provisional 1,076 1,053 960 70 70

Grampian

2013/14 1,905 1,669 1,676 233 230

2014/15 2,192 1,721 1,809 427 430

2015/16 2,016 1,786 1,707 270 270

2016/17 provisional 2,028 1,774 1,725 279 280

2013/14 4,126 3,756 3,892 302 300

2014/15 4,881 3,855 4,002 953 950

2015/16 4,430 3,792 3,950 559 560

2016/17 provisional 4,558 4,020 4,027 535 530

Number of deaths registered


mortality in the winter (or

seasonal difference)1

Ayrshire & Arran

Dumfries & Galloway

Forth Valley

Greater Glasgow & Clyde


Table 5, continued

NHS Board

area 2 Period

Winter

(Dec - Mar)

Preceding

period

(Aug - Nov)

Following

period

(Apr - Jul)

(actual) (rounded)

Number of deaths registeredSeasonal Increase in

Mortality in the Winter (or

seasonal difference) 1

Highland

2013/14 1,141 1,007 1,067 104 100

2014/15 1,322 1,111 1,268 133 130

2015/16 1,352 1,137 993 287 290

2016/17 provisional 1,346 1,191 1,116 193 190

2013/14 2,305 2,062 2,126 211 210

2014/15 2,751 2,176 2,304 511 510

2015/16 2,549 2,205 2,168 363 360

2016/17 provisional 2,611 2,294 2,251 339 340

Lothian

2013/14 2,606 2,307 2,349 278 280

2014/15 2,929 2,437 2,460 481 480

2015/16 2,773 2,426 2,478 321 320

2016/17 provisional 2,800 2,518 2,444 319 320

Orkney

2013/14 76 68 69 8 10

2014/15 78 57 76 12 10

2015/16 75 67 75 4 0

2016/17 provisional 82 77 91 -2 0

Shetland

2013/14 69 66 64 4 0

2014/15 96 74 82 18 20

2015/16 84 87 68 7 10

2016/17 provisional 85 78 67 13 10

Tayside

2013/14 1,461 1,373 1,392 79 80

2014/15 1,882 1,439 1,462 432 430

2015/16 1,726 1,472 1,492 244 240

2016/17 provisional 1,843 1,479 1,519 344 340

2013/14 104 99 126 -9 -10

2014/15 145 105 117 34 30

2015/16 138 91 109 38 40

2016/17 provisional 141 111 104 34 30

Footnotes

Western Isles

Lanarkshire





2) The statistics for each board's area are based on the boundaries that apply w ith effect from 1 April 2014. Figures for 2013/14 show w hat

the numbers w ould have been had the new boundaries applied then.


Table 6: The Seasonal Increase in Mortality in the Winter and the Increased Winter Mortality Index, by age group and Local Authority area of usual residence, 2007/08 to 2016/17

All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+ All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+

2007-08 70 30 10 30 10 10 21 4 15 3

2008-09 130 40 10 20 60 20 28 8 9 34

2009-10 30 20 10 -10 0 4 15 9 . 1

2010/11 120 10 10 40 60 19 7 9 18 32

2011/12 90 40 0 10 40 14 33 1 7 17

2012/13 80 20 20 -20 60 12 12 16 . 31

2013/14 110 0 30 30 50 17 0 25 16 25

2014/15 160 20 20 30 90 23 13 18 17 37

2015/16 100 20 0 30 40 14 15 1 19 17

2016/17 (P) 60 0 -20 40 30 8 1 . 21 13

All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+ All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+

2007-08 120 -10 40 50 40 16 . 33 22 17

2008-09 90 -20 20 30 50 13 . 16 16 24

2009-10 120 20 0 40 60 17 13 1 16 28

2010/11 90 0 20 30 40 13 . 18 14 17

2011/12 70 -10 10 50 20 10 . 8 24 7

2012/13 80 10 10 20 50 11 4 5 7 20

2013/14 60 10 20 0 30 8 8 15 . 13

2014/15 180 -10 20 40 130 23 . 14 16 49

2015/16 110 10 30 0 60 14 8 24 1 24

2016/17 (P) 160 20 -10 50 100 22 18 . 22 39

All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+ All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+

2007-08 30 0 10 30 -10 6 1 7 25 .

2008-09 70 10 0 30 20 17 19 7 20 18

2009-10 100 0 20 30 50 25 . 31 28 38

2010/11 30 -10 0 0 40 8 . 2 . 37

2011/12 40 10 -10 20 20 10 10 . 15 15

2012/13 70 0 10 0 60 16 7 12 . 42

2013/14 20 0 0 0 10 5 4 5 2 9

2014/15 120 10 10 20 80 28 14 8 15 55

2015/16 60 10 0 30 20 13 7 2 26 10

2016/17 (P) 110 0 10 40 60 25 . 10 33 41

All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+ All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+

2007-08 40 0 0 0 30 11 . 3 4 32

2008-09 40 10 0 -10 40 13 24 . . 36

2009-10 60 10 10 30 20 17 13 10 27 14

2010/11 10 -10 10 0 10 3 . 21 . 9

2011/12 30 10 0 10 10 9 16 . 12 10

2012/13 50 10 0 20 20 15 33 0 18 15

2013/14 40 10 10 20 0 11 13 19 20 .

2014/15 70 0 10 20 30 18 6 22 17 22

2015/16 70 10 10 20 20 20 27 16 19 20

2016/17 (P) 70 10 -10 30 40 22 16 . 36 31

Aberdeen City

Seasonal increase in mortality in the winter1, 2 Increased Winter Mortality Index3, 4


Aberdeenshire

Angus

Argyll & Bute




Table 6, continued

City of Edinburgh 5

All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+ All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+

2007-08 160 20 30 50 50 11 9 13 12 11

2008-09 210 -20 20 80 120 15 . 10 20 28

2009-10 210 30 20 40 120 16 11 11 10 28

2010/11 190 50 30 80 30 14 19 15 19 7

2011/12 80 20 10 10 40 6 6 5 2 8

2012/13 160 0 20 30 120 11 . 7 6 24

2013/14 150 10 -10 70 90 11 3 . 18 19

2014/15 310 10 40 130 140 23 6 17 33 28

2015/16 190 20 70 60 40 14 8 30 17 7

2016/17 (P) 180 20 30 20 100 13 9 16 4 20

All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+ All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+

2007-08 0 -10 0 0 10 2 . 7 . 36

2008-09 80 10 10 30 30 50 26 27 66 67

2009-10 10 0 10 -10 10 9 10 57 . 21

2010/11 10 0 0 0 10 5 . 3 . 24

2011/12 0 0 0 0 0 1 . . 2 5

2012/13 20 0 0 20 0 8 2 . 31 .

2013/14 -10 -10 -10 0 0 . . . . 5

2014/15 40 0 0 20 30 26 2 . 38 66

2015/16 20 10 0 10 0 13 34 0 12 8

2016/17 (P) 20 0 10 -10 20 12 4 23 . 35

All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+ All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+

2007-08 90 30 10 30 20 16 37 7 13 15

2008-09 140 20 30 40 40 25 23 29 25 24

2009-10 100 10 10 30 50 18 12 12 17 27

2010/11 50 20 10 10 20 8 17 7 4 9

2011/12 20 -20 -20 10 40 3 . . 6 19

2012/13 40 0 -10 20 40 7 . . 10 18

2013/14 110 20 30 20 40 19 24 28 10 21

2014/15 160 10 30 50 60 26 18 23 28 29

2015/16 130 20 30 20 50 23 30 28 13 27

2016/17 (P) 130 -10 30 60 50 22 . 29 34 21

All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+ All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+

2007-08 60 -20 30 20 30 10 . 25 10 21

2008-09 90 10 0 50 20 17 10 4 32 16

2009-10 110 20 20 30 40 20 16 17 18 28

2010/11 50 0 10 20 30 8 . 5 11 17

2011/12 70 -10 10 40 20 12 . 12 23 15

2012/13 80 10 0 30 50 16 11 . 18 29

2013/14 40 10 20 10 0 8 10 20 7 2

2014/15 150 20 20 70 40 28 17 23 44 23

2015/16 90 30 10 20 30 17 23 11 15 19

2016/17 (P) 150 20 10 60 70 29 14 15 37 39

Dumfries & Galloway

Seasonal increase in mortality in the winter1, 2




Clackmannanshire


Dundee



Table 6, continued

East Ayrshire

All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+ All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+

2007-08 30 -10 -10 10 30 6 . . 8 28

2008-09 110 10 20 40 40 27 13 24 31 38

2009-10 40 20 -10 30 10 10 19 . 21 8

2010/11 80 10 20 20 20 18 12 26 17 18

2011/12 20 0 0 20 -10 5 4 3 16 .

2012/13 20 -50 0 40 30 5 . . 32 23

2013/14 60 30 20 10 0 14 32 20 9 2

2014/15 130 10 10 40 70 29 13 7 29 59

2015/16 40 0 20 20 10 8 . 20 12 4

2016/17 (P) 90 20 20 10 40 19 19 24 6 32

All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+ All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+

2007-08 70 20 10 30 10 22 43 20 25 7

2008-09 70 10 0 20 30 23 20 8 21 36

2009-10 30 0 -10 20 10 8 1 . 20 13

2010/11 70 10 10 30 20 23 19 15 34 20

2011/12 -10 0 -20 10 0 . . . 12 .

2012/13 80 0 0 30 50 24 6 . 30 46

2013/14 30 0 10 10 10 9 . 11 9 13

2014/15 60 0 10 20 40 18 . 10 15 33

2015/16 100 20 10 20 50 29 40 21 18 37

2016/17 (P) 50 0 -10 20 40 15 7 . 15 28

East Lothian

All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+ All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+

2007-08 20 10 -20 10 20 7 19 . 9 17

2008-09 60 10 20 20 10 19 18 30 22 11

2009-10 80 10 10 20 40 26 27 16 23 35

2010/11 60 10 0 30 30 21 9 . 35 30

2011/12 50 10 10 20 20 15 18 9 17 14

2012/13 30 0 0 20 20 9 . 1 18 12

2013/14 50 20 0 10 20 16 44 2 14 14

2014/15 80 10 0 30 50 25 14 . 28 41

2015/16 40 0 20 0 20 11 1 39 . 14

2016/17 (P) 70 10 20 0 40 20 10 31 5 33

All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+ All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+

2007-08 50 20 0 20 10 18 44 . 23 13

2008-09 30 10 0 10 20 11 11 4 6 18

2009-10 40 10 -10 20 20 14 19 . 21 20

2010/11 50 0 10 0 40 19 . 18 3 50

2011/12 -10 0 0 10 -10 . . . 9 .

2012/13 30 0 0 10 20 11 . 0 8 23

2013/14 20 -10 10 10 0 6 . 26 17 1

2014/15 90 20 10 30 30 33 47 20 38 30

2015/16 40 10 0 10 20 16 41 7 13 14

2016/17 (P) 10 -10 10 -10 20 3 . 19 . 15

Increased Winter Mortality Index3, 4Seasonal increase in mortality in the winter1, 2





East Dunbartonshire

East Renfrewshire


Table 6, continued

All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+ All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+

2007-08 30 10 0 20 10 7 5 . 13 7

2008-09 90 10 20 10 50 19 14 18 6 43

2009-10 60 10 10 10 30 12 15 12 5 18

2010/11 100 30 20 20 20 19 34 21 14 15

2011/12 60 10 -10 20 30 13 11 . 14 24

2012/13 40 10 -10 20 30 8 7 . 9 18

2013/14 40 10 0 0 30 9 10 2 . 24

2014/15 130 0 20 40 70 26 2 22 22 48

2015/16 90 20 -10 60 20 17 18 . 41 14

2016/17 (P) 30 0 -10 20 20 6 3 . 10 11

All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+ All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+

2007-08 210 10 10 80 110 17 3 3 21 33

2008-09 280 10 60 80 130 23 6 25 21 36

2009-10 190 30 40 60 60 16 14 17 16 16

2010/11 90 30 -10 50 20 7 13 . 12 6

2011/12 120 20 50 -10 60 10 8 23 . 15

2012/13 140 -10 60 30 70 11 . 27 7 16

2013/14 40 0 -10 0 50 3 2 . 1 13

2014/15 250 0 30 90 130 20 2 14 24 31

2015/16 230 30 40 110 50 18 15 17 30 12

2016/17 (P) 160 0 30 60 70 12 . 11 16 16

Glasgow

All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+ All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+

2007-08 250 20 0 130 90 11 4 0 20 17

2008-09 460 40 110 140 160 22 8 27 22 33

2009-10 300 80 30 100 90 15 16 6 17 19

2010/11 280 100 0 80 100 14 19 0 13 20

2011/12 220 50 40 50 80 11 11 11 7 14

2012/13 240 30 30 80 90 12 6 8 13 18

2013/14 180 -10 40 70 80 9 . 11 12 15

2014/15 410 70 90 130 120 20 15 23 23 20

2015/16 260 30 50 90 100 13 6 13 15 18

2016/17 (P) 340 40 40 100 150 17 8 11 17 29

All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+ All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+

2007-08 40 0 0 -10 50 5 2 1 . 23

2008-09 100 -10 40 40 30 14 . 29 18 17

2009-10 140 30 20 20 70 20 25 14 10 31

2010/11 100 20 30 20 30 13 10 22 10 13

2011/12 50 10 -10 20 30 7 8 . 10 12

2012/13 90 0 10 40 40 12 2 5 19 15

2013/14 70 -10 20 20 40 10 . 12 9 17

2014/15 70 -40 10 30 60 8 . 8 12 22

2015/16 220 40 50 40 90 30 31 36 21 35

2016/17 (P) 120 0 20 40 70 15 . 14 15 23

Falkirk


Fife

Highland






Table 6, continued

Inverclyde

All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+ All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+

2007-08 70 10 20 10 20 21 12 41 12 29

2008-09 50 10 0 10 30 16 15 . 9 41

2009-10 30 10 10 0 0 8 17 23 1 .

2010/11 50 0 20 10 20 16 . 33 10 26

2011/12 0 0 -10 -10 10 . 4 . . 9

2012/13 40 20 -10 0 30 15 56 . 4 29

2013/14 20 20 10 -10 0 7 22 23 . .

2014/15 100 0 30 40 40 33 4 50 37 39

2015/16 60 20 10 10 10 18 40 24 9 10

2016/17 (P) 40 0 0 20 20 11 . . 26 15

Midlothian

All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+ All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+

2007-08 30 -10 20 20 0 10 . 35 24 .

2008-09 30 10 10 10 0 10 10 15 15 3

2009-10 -10 -10 -10 20 -10 . . . 24 .

2010/11 10 0 0 0 10 5 1 . 4 16

2011/12 40 20 0 0 10 16 52 5 1 18

2012/13 20 0 10 20 -10 7 . 22 29 .

2013/14 30 0 10 10 0 10 7 16 18 2

2014/15 40 10 0 0 30 15 26 . 2 35

2015/16 40 10 20 0 10 15 18 47 1 10

2016/17 (P) 10 -10 0 10 10 2 . 3 13 5

Moray

All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+ All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+

2007-08 60 10 0 20 30 21 11 7 22 36

2008-09 50 0 20 10 30 17 . 31 6 34

2009-10 70 0 20 20 30 24 5 32 19 38

2010/11 50 10 10 10 10 15 23 19 10 13

2011/12 20 10 -10 0 10 7 28 . 0 13

2012/13 10 10 0 -10 10 4 12 8 . 10

2013/14 70 10 10 30 20 23 18 11 29 25

2014/15 90 0 20 20 50 30 4 32 23 44

2015/16 70 0 10 20 40 21 . 18 18 37

2016/17 (P) 60 0 0 20 50 19 . . 22 44

All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+ All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+

2007-08 10 10 0 20 -10 5 23 . 48 .

2008-09 10 -10 0 20 -10 8 . 12 61 .

2009-10 40 10 10 20 0 35 53 29 84 .

2010/11 0 0 0 0 -10 . . 24 3 .

2011/12 30 10 10 0 10 20 53 22 . 29

2012/13 20 10 10 0 10 15 52 37 . 15

2013/14 -10 0 -10 10 0 . . . 21 .

2014/15 30 20 0 10 10 31 94 17 30 14

2015/16 40 10 10 10 10 38 44 59 27 32

2016/17 (P) 30 0 10 10 10 31 24 35 29 34






Na h-Eileanan Siar

Increased Winter Mortality Index3, 4Seasonal increase in mortality in the winter1, 2


Table 6, continued

All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+ All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+

2007-08 80 0 30 10 50 15 4 27 3 33

2008-09 130 0 40 60 30 25 . 37 43 22

2009-10 60 -20 20 30 20 12 . 22 19 18

2010/11 60 20 10 20 20 13 20 12 9 12

2011/12 20 -10 0 30 0 4 . 3 20 0

2012/13 80 0 20 30 20 15 2 21 20 15

2013/14 10 0 -10 0 30 2 . . 2 19

2014/15 100 -20 10 70 30 19 . 9 45 20

2015/16 50 0 20 40 0 10 0 14 24 1

2016/17 (P) 70 -10 10 10 60 14 . 14 8 36

All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+ All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+

2007-08 150 -10 40 100 30 14 . 17 31 11

2008-09 230 40 50 110 30 22 17 21 33 13

2009-10 280 80 50 120 40 27 32 22 37 15

2010/11 180 50 50 30 50 17 20 21 9 20

2011/12 120 40 -10 40 50 11 15 . 12 19

2012/13 190 20 40 70 60 17 10 16 21 22

2013/14 70 -10 20 40 30 7 . 7 12 11

2014/15 230 20 70 70 80 20 8 29 19 27

2015/16 200 10 60 60 60 18 5 28 18 22

2016/17 (P) 210 50 40 50 80 19 19 15 13 28

Orkney

All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+ All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+

2007-08 0 0 -10 10 0 1 16 . 30 13

2008-09 10 0 10 -10 10 14 9 42 . 51

2009-10 0 0 0 0 0 . 9 . 8 .

2010/11 10 10 0 10 0 19 58 . 37 11

2011/12 -10 0 0 -10 0 . 5 4 . 19

2012/13 10 0 0 0 0 9 8 . 13 15

2013/14 10 10 0 0 -10 11 100 14 10 .

2014/15 10 0 0 10 10 17 27 . 33 24

2015/16 0 0 0 10 0 6 4 8 41 .

2016/17 (P) 0 0 10 -10 0 . 4 46 . .

All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+ All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+

2007-08 70 0 20 20 30 14 5 23 11 18

2008-09 70 10 -10 10 50 14 19 . 8 29

2009-10 100 20 10 40 40 21 22 14 26 21

2010/11 150 10 40 50 40 32 19 54 42 23

2011/12 70 10 20 20 30 15 12 20 11 17

2012/13 40 0 -10 20 30 7 2 . 9 17

2013/14 20 -10 -10 30 10 3 . . 20 3

2014/15 160 20 20 40 90 33 20 29 26 46

2015/16 100 30 -10 10 60 19 36 . 9 35

2016/17 (P) 80 20 10 10 50 15 22 6 8 23






North Lanarkshire

Perth & Kinross

North Ayrshire





Table 6, continued

All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+ All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+

2007-08 80 -20 30 30 30 13 . 29 18 21

2008-09 90 20 10 10 50 15 17 10 4 32

2009-10 80 10 20 40 10 12 9 13 18 8

2010/11 20 -10 30 20 -10 4 . 23 9 .

2011/12 30 0 0 0 30 5 2 0 . 15

2012/13 0 -10 0 -20 30 0 . 1 . 16

2013/14 50 10 20 10 -10 8 14 21 7 .

2014/15 160 0 30 30 100 26 1 23 14 57

2015/16 50 40 -10 10 10 8 38 . 5 6

2016/17 (P) 80 0 0 40 50 12 0 . 19 23

All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+ All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+

2007-08 80 20 10 0 40 19 32 19 0 36

2008-09 100 10 20 40 30 24 15 23 34 21

2009-10 50 -10 10 20 30 12 . 9 18 25

2010/11 70 10 20 10 30 19 21 39 6 22

2011/12 40 -10 20 20 10 9 . 26 19 4

2012/13 70 0 -10 40 40 16 . . 31 24

2013/14 10 -10 -10 10 20 3 . . 11 11

2014/15 120 10 20 30 60 28 23 30 19 36

2015/16 70 0 20 20 30 19 5 31 19 19

2016/17 (P) 60 10 20 0 20 14 21 28 3 14

Shetland

All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+ All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+

2007-08 10 0 0 10 0 10 4 . 50 5

2008-09 0 -10 0 0 10 2 . 29 . 28

2009-10 10 0 0 0 10 17 29 . 12 28

2010/11 10 0 0 10 0 17 36 25 43 .

2011/12 -10 0 0 0 0 . . . . .

2012/13 0 -10 0 10 0 . . 13 44 .

2013/14 0 0 0 0 10 6 3 . . 54

2014/15 20 0 0 10 10 23 10 . 32 45

2015/16 10 0 0 10 0 8 36 . 26 .

2016/17 (P) 10 0 0 0 10 17 38 26 . 37

All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+ All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+

2007-08 30 -10 10 20 10 6 . 8 13 8

2008-09 140 20 -10 70 60 34 26 . 52 49

2009-10 90 10 0 40 40 21 21 1 29 27

2010/11 60 -10 0 30 50 14 . . 18 37

2011/12 30 -10 20 20 0 6 . 25 12 .

2012/13 50 10 -10 0 40 10 14 . 1 25

2013/14 80 20 0 10 50 19 40 5 6 34

2014/15 70 20 10 10 30 15 31 17 3 17

2015/16 90 0 20 40 20 20 5 26 34 13

2016/17 (P) 80 0 0 10 80 19 . . 8 52

Scottish Borders


Renfrewshire

South Ayrshire





Table 6, continued

All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+ All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+

2007-08 130 -10 10 90 40 12 . 2 28 13

2008-09 290 40 50 100 100 31 21 25 32 40

2009-10 180 30 20 50 90 18 15 7 15 32

2010/11 160 10 20 60 70 16 3 11 18 26

2011/12 100 20 0 20 60 9 8 . 7 18

2012/13 110 0 30 40 50 10 1 12 10 15

2013/14 140 40 -20 40 80 13 20 . 12 24

2014/15 280 0 50 100 130 25 . 25 28 39

2015/16 160 20 40 40 70 15 9 19 11 20

2016/17 (P) 130 20 -10 60 60 11 11 . 17 16

Stirling

All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+ All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+

2007-08 70 20 0 20 30 30 58 . 32 38

2008-09 110 20 10 50 30 46 33 34 73 36

2009-10 30 10 -10 0 30 11 16 . . 37

2010/11 30 0 10 10 10 13 . 22 12 17

2011/12 0 -10 0 10 -10 . . 1 17 .

2012/13 30 0 -10 0 40 11 11 . 1 43

2013/14 40 -10 10 30 10 15 . 22 40 10

2014/15 60 20 0 0 30 22 56 4 4 35

2015/16 40 0 0 30 0 12 9 . 33 4

2016/17 (P) 20 0 0 0 10 6 5 6 6 8

All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+ All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+

2007-08 60 0 20 10 30 17 2 29 4 41

2008-09 50 10 10 0 20 13 18 12 1 22

2009-10 70 0 20 20 20 22 6 36 22 30

2010/11 80 30 30 0 30 26 53 45 . 30

2011/12 20 -10 10 10 20 5 . 12 7 18

2012/13 10 -10 0 -10 30 3 . . . 33

2013/14 10 -10 10 10 10 4 . 8 5 7

2014/15 130 20 20 40 50 37 19 25 42 57

2015/16 50 -10 0 40 10 14 . . 52 15

2016/17 (P) 20 0 0 10 10 6 0 2 7 12



South Lanarkshire





West Dunbartonshire


Table 6, continued

All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+ All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+

2007-08 10 -10 20 0 0 3 . 26 2 .

2008-09 120 30 20 60 10 28 27 26 42 12

2009-10 90 10 40 20 30 22 7 37 18 29

2010/11 120 40 20 40 30 29 33 19 33 28

2011/12 40 30 -10 10 20 9 30 . 3 15

2012/13 80 0 20 40 20 17 1 22 25 18

2013/14 50 10 0 20 20 12 13 2 11 19

2014/15 40 0 20 0 20 9 0 20 3 13

2015/16 60 20 0 10 20 12 17 4 9 16

2016/17 (P) 70 10 10 20 20 14 15 11 14 15

Footnotes



West Lothian

5) The alphabetical order of the council areas has changed due to adoption of the preferred form of reference to the Edinburgh council area.

Previous versions of this table used the form 'Edinburgh'. The preferred form is 'City of Edinburgh'.

3) The Increased Winter Mortality (IWM) Index is the (unrounded) number of 'additional' w inter deaths divided by the (unrounded) average

number of deaths in a four month 'non-w inter' period, expressed as a percentage.





2) Because of the approximate nature of this measure, numbers have been rounded independently to the nearest 10. The sum of the age

group figures may therefore appear to differ from the 'all ages' total.



Table 7: The Seasonal Increase in Mortality in the Winter - the underlying numbers of registrations of deaths, by Local Authority area of usual residence, 2013/14 to 2016/17

Local

Authority Period

Winter

(Dec - Mar)

Preceding

period

(Aug - Nov)

Following

period

(Apr - Jul)

(actual) (rounded)




2013/14 767 630 681 112 110

2014/15 858 685 710 161 160

2015/16 763 670 666 95 100

2016/17 provisional 746 712 670 55 60

2013/14 786 740 720 56 60

2014/15 935 738 781 176 180

2015/16 866 774 743 108 110

2016/17 provisional 914 750 749 165 160

2013/14 437 399 430 23 20

2014/15 539 420 422 118 120

2015/16 500 405 483 56 60

2016/17 provisional 538 439 421 108 110

2013/14 356 320 321 36 40

2014/15 435 355 381 67 70

2015/16 406 363 314 68 70

2016/17 provisional 411 376 299 74 70

City of Edinburgh 2

2013/14 1,438 1,290 1,290 148 150

2014/15 1,664 1,352 1,348 314 310

2015/16 1,572 1,354 1,414 188 190

2016/17 provisional 1,527 1,380 1,320 177 180

2013/14 155 174 163 -14 -10

2014/15 203 164 158 42 40

2015/16 200 176 179 23 20

2016/17 provisional 194 175 172 21 20

2013/14 697 554 615 113 110

2014/15 746 579 602 156 160

2015/16 701 556 587 130 130

2016/17 provisional 723 567 617 131 130

Aberdeen City

Angus

Clackmannanshire

Aberdeenshire

Argyll & Bute

Dumfries & Galloway


Table 7, continued

Local

Authority Period

Winter

(Dec - Mar)

Preceding

period

(Aug - Nov)

Following

period

(Apr - Jul)

(actual) (rounded)




2013/14 525 466 502 41 40

2014/15 688 526 549 151 150

2015/16 626 541 528 92 90

2016/17 provisional 690 516 556 154 150

2013/14 505 438 451 61 60

2014/15 571 425 462 128 130

2015/16 465 416 443 36 40

2016/17 provisional 551 495 430 89 90

2013/14 356 325 330 29 30

2014/15 405 362 326 61 60

2015/16 435 321 354 98 100

2016/17 provisional 401 339 360 52 50

2013/14 373 314 331 51 50

2014/15 405 318 328 82 80

2015/16 364 338 316 37 40

2016/17 provisional 397 330 330 67 70

2013/14 299 286 277 18 20

2014/15 373 284 276 93 90

2015/16 311 263 272 44 40

2016/17 provisional 312 286 319 10 10

2013/14 514 479 464 43 40

2014/15 625 481 513 128 130

2015/16 612 517 526 91 90

2016/17 provisional 600 605 530 33 30

2013/14 1,217 1,174 1,179 41 40

2014/15 1,493 1,186 1,295 253 250

2015/16 1,477 1,208 1,285 231 230

2016/17 provisional 1,501 1,293 1,384 163 160

Falkirk

Dundee

Fife

East Ayrshire

East Dunbartonshire

East Lothian

East Renfrewshire


Table 7, continued

Local

Authority Period

Winter

(Dec - Mar)

Preceding

period

(Aug - Nov)

Following

period

(Apr - Jul)

(actual) (rounded)




Glasgow

2013/14 2,179 1,992 2,009 179 180

2014/15 2,462 1,964 2,132 414 410

2015/16 2,261 1,955 2,040 264 260

2016/17 provisional 2,352 2,006 2,028 335 340

2013/14 785 687 746 69 70

2014/15 887 756 887 66 70

2015/16 946 774 679 220 220

2016/17 provisional 935 815 817 119 120

Inverclyde

2013/14 325 292 317 21 20

2014/15 402 296 308 100 100

2015/16 363 300 315 56 60

2016/17 provisional 391 339 365 39 40

2013/14 290 253 273 27 30

2014/15 325 272 295 42 40

2015/16 303 261 264 41 40

2016/17 provisional 303 289 306 6 10

Moray

2013/14 352 299 275 65 70

2014/15 399 298 318 91 90

2015/16 387 342 298 67 70

2016/17 provisional 368 312 306 59 60

2013/14 104 99 126 -9 -10

2014/15 145 105 117 34 30

2015/16 138 91 109 38 40

2016/17 provisional 141 111 104 34 30

2013/14 528 502 530 12 10

2014/15 638 509 564 102 100

2015/16 573 543 497 53 50

2016/17 provisional 582 520 500 72 70

Na h-Eileanan Siar

Highland

Midlothian

North Ayrshire


Table 7, continued

Local

Authority Period

Winter

(Dec - Mar)

Preceding

period

(Aug - Nov)

Following

period

(Apr - Jul)

(actual) (rounded)




2013/14 1,137 1,047 1,081 73 70

2014/15 1,379 1,119 1,170 235 230

2015/16 1,292 1,151 1,036 199 200

2016/17 provisional 1,354 1,170 1,111 214 210

Orkney

2013/14 76 68 69 8 10

2014/15 78 57 76 12 10

2015/16 75 67 75 4 0

2016/17 provisional 82 77 91 -2 0

2013/14 499 508 460 15 20

2014/15 655 493 491 163 160

2015/16 600 526 481 97 100

2016/17 provisional 615 524 542 82 80

2013/14 629 544 624 45 50

2014/15 775 612 620 159 160

2015/16 699 633 657 54 50

2016/17 provisional 739 689 630 80 80

2013/14 414 372 431 13 10

2014/15 569 439 451 124 120

2015/16 467 382 405 74 70

2016/17 provisional 476 420 416 58 60

Shetland

2013/14 69 66 64 4 0

2014/15 96 74 82 18 20

2015/16 84 87 68 7 10

2016/17 provisional 85 78 67 13 10

2013/14 519 458 414 83 80

2014/15 543 464 482 70 70

2015/16 549 477 437 92 90

2016/17 provisional 527 445 444 83 80

Scottish Borders

South Ayrshire

North Lanarkshire

Perth & Kinross

Renfrewshire


Table 7, continued

Local

Authority Period

Winter

(Dec - Mar)

Preceding

period

(Aug - Nov)

Following

period

(Apr - Jul)

(actual) (rounded)




2013/14 1,168 1,015 1,045 138 140

2014/15 1,372 1,057 1,134 277 280

2015/16 1,257 1,054 1,132 164 160

2016/17 provisional 1,257 1,124 1,140 125 130

Stirling

2013/14 333 290 289 44 40

2014/15 349 271 303 62 60

2015/16 322 287 287 35 40

2016/17 provisional 282 273 258 17 20

2013/14 338 317 335 12 10

2014/15 464 337 340 126 130

2015/16 361 320 312 45 50

2016/17 provisional 363 361 325 20 20

2013/14 505 450 455 53 50

2014/15 535 495 489 43 40

2015/16 534 473 484 56 60

2016/17 provisional 573 519 488 70 70

Footnotes

2) The alphabetical order of the councils has changed due to adoption of the preferred form of reference to the Edinburgh council area.

Previous versions of this table used the form 'Edinburgh'. The preferred form is 'City of Edinburgh'.

South Lanarkshire

West Dunbartonshire

West Lothian






Table 8: Seasonal Increase in Mortality in the Winter and the Increased Winter Mortality Index, by age-group and underlying cause of death, Scotland, 2006/07 to 2016/17

Period

All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+ All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+

2006/07 2,750 190 410 980 1,180 16 5 12 18 24

2007/08 2,180 130 320 880 850 12 3 9 16 17

2008/09 3,510 370 590 1,170 1,370 21 10 18 22 28

2009/10 2,760 460 370 890 1,040 16 13 11 17 21

2010/11 2,450 410 430 720 890 14 12 13 14 17

2011/12 1,420 230 110 440 650 8 7 3 8 12

2012/13 2,000 90 190 600 1,120 11 3 6 11 20

2013/14 1,600 140 210 530 730 9 4 6 10 14

2014/15 4,060 270 610 1,240 1,940 23 8 18 23 33

2015/16 2,850 450 530 910 970 16 13 16 17 17

2016/17 (P) 2,720 200 280 810 1,430 15 6 8 15 24

All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+ All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+

2006/07 560 80 70 200 210 19 15 11 20 26

2007/08 290 0 100 140 50 10 . 16 14 7

2008/09 500 70 120 140 170 19 16 23 15 21

2009/10 550 90 130 190 140 22 22 25 22 18

2010/11 270 30 40 150 50 11 7 8 18 6

2011/12 180 40 40 90 20 7 9 7 11 3

2012/13 190 0 30 60 90 8 1 6 8 12

2013/14 220 20 60 90 60 10 6 14 12 8

2014/15 460 20 90 190 170 21 5 19 26 23

2015/16 340 60 70 90 120 16 16 16 14 17

2016/17 (P) 330 80 40 80 130 16 22 8 12 21

All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+ All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+

2006/07 310 -10 50 100 170 19 . 25 18 23

2007/08 280 10 30 110 140 17 6 11 19 20

2008/09 350 0 20 130 200 22 1 8 24 29

2009/10 290 20 40 110 130 19 13 20 21 19

2010/11 360 20 70 100 170 25 15 42 20 26

2011/12 90 0 0 70 30 7 . . 14 5

2012/13 190 -10 -10 80 130 13 . . 15 20

2013/14 140 10 0 50 90 10 6 . 10 15

2014/15 400 20 10 120 240 30 23 8 27 39

2015/16 210 20 50 60 80 17 16 30 15 14

2016/17 (P) 230 30 10 70 120 18 27 5 17 20

All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+ All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+

2006/07 140 0 30 50 60 11 . 12 13 14

2007/08 130 -10 20 70 40 11 . 10 19 10

2008/09 210 30 50 50 80 19 20 28 13 19

2009/10 190 30 30 70 60 17 20 14 20 14

2010/11 170 10 20 90 50 15 6 10 24 12

2011/12 80 10 0 40 30 6 6 0 10 6

2012/13 120 0 20 40 60 9 . 10 11 12

2013/14 150 10 10 30 110 12 3 5 8 23

2014/15 260 -10 50 80 140 19 . 23 18 25

2015/16 220 40 40 80 60 16 26 18 18 10

2016/17 (P) 270 40 40 90 110 20 19 18 22 18

Underlying

cause of

death5

All causes of death

Coronary (ischaemic) Heart Disease (I20-I25)

Cerebrovascular disease (I60-I69)

Other circulatory system diseases (other I00-I99)






Table 8, continued

All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+ All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+

2006/07 70 0 40 20 10 1 0 3 1 1

2007/08 50 30 -10 30 10 1 2 . 2 1

2008/09 290 10 60 170 50 6 1 5 11 6

2009/10 120 40 -20 50 50 2 4 . 3 6

2010/11 80 -20 60 10 20 2 . 4 1 3

2011/12 20 40 -40 -10 30 0 3 . . 3

2012/13 -120 -20 -40 -30 -30 . . . . .

2013/14 50 10 20 20 0 1 1 1 1 0

2014/15 260 -20 110 90 70 5 . 7 5 7

2015/16 290 40 110 80 60 6 4 8 5 6

2016/17 (P) 120 20 20 10 70 2 2 2 0 7

All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+ All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+

2006/07 360 20 40 100 210 51 29 46 47 57

2007/08 350 20 30 100 210 53 33 46 47 60

2008/09 490 50 20 140 280 76 98 37 76 80

2009/10 280 20 20 60 180 41 28 35 30 51

2010/11 210 60 30 20 110 32 130 45 8 30

2011/12 180 10 20 50 100 28 16 38 30 27

2012/13 330 30 30 90 180 54 79 47 54 52

2013/14 130 20 20 30 60 24 54 39 19 20

2014/15 480 30 50 120 280 90 84 106 87 89

2015/16 320 60 40 100 130 65 134 77 88 44

2016/17 (P) 310 20 40 70 180 59 43 71 52 61

All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+ All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+

2006/07 440 40 110 180 110 50 38 49 48 61

2007/08 310 40 50 150 70 35 40 24 39 39

2008/09 520 60 140 190 120 61 65 66 56 63

2009/10 360 70 70 140 90 44 74 31 42 46

2010/11 350 90 90 130 30 39 81 42 37 17

2011/12 240 20 40 90 80 25 22 17 24 37

2012/13 350 30 90 140 90 35 30 35 34 39

2013/14 200 20 60 70 40 21 18 25 21 19

2014/15 580 70 150 190 180 60 67 67 49 69

2015/16 410 90 120 160 50 42 83 48 42 18

2016/17 (P) 390 60 70 130 140 38 46 26 34 54

All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+ All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+

2006/07 170 10 10 50 90 31 16 13 30 43

2007/08 190 20 10 90 60 33 53 12 45 28

2008/09 230 20 20 70 120 43 40 35 37 53

2009/10 170 -10 20 70 90 33 . 20 44 42

2010/11 140 20 0 30 90 28 45 2 17 43

2011/12 110 0 10 40 50 19 . 17 23 22

2012/13 190 30 10 50 100 35 69 13 27 42

2013/14 90 10 20 40 20 16 15 32 21 8

2014/15 280 10 10 50 210 45 10 15 22 82

2015/16 150 30 50 20 50 25 86 63 11 17

2016/17 (P) 140 0 10 30 100 27 2 8 21 43

Cancer (malignant neoplasms) (C00-C97)

Influenza and pneumonia (J09-J18)

Chronic lower respiratory diseases (J40-J47)

Other respiratory system diseases (other J00-J99)






Table 8, continued

All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+ All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+

2006/07 210 0 10 60 130 30 80 29 27 31

2007/08 220 10 10 100 110 29 118 20 38 24

2008/09 370 20 20 120 220 50 300 37 52 48

2009/10 270 10 10 80 180 35 86 19 34 36

2010/11 210 0 10 60 140 24 . 31 22 26

2011/12 190 -10 10 40 150 18 . 16 13 21

2012/13 350 0 20 90 230 32 20 44 28 33

2013/14 230 0 10 90 130 21 . 16 29 19

2014/15 500 0 20 180 300 42 . 47 51 38

2015/16 320 0 20 100 200 30 25 38 35 27

2016/17 (P) 460 0 10 130 310 39 20 24 41 39

All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+ All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+

2006/07 50 40 0 10 0 22 22 23 100 .

2007/08 10 -10 0 10 0 3 . 23 58 75

2008/09 60 60 0 10 0 26 26 10 85 .

2009/10 50 50 10 0 0 25 29 29 . .

2010/11 -10 -10 0 10 0 . . . 88 17

2011/12 0 -10 20 -10 10 3 . 135 . 150

2012/13 10 0 10 0 0 8 . 45 16 57

2013/14 30 30 0 0 0 35 56 14 . 27

2014/15 20 10 10 0 0 11 5 22 23 13

2015/16 10 10 -10 0 10 6 8 . . 118

2016/17 (P) 0 0 -10 10 0 . . . 45 .

All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+ All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+

2006/07 70 0 10 40 10 24 25 22 41 10

2007/08 90 10 20 60 10 30 90 46 49 6

2008/09 90 0 10 40 30 28 24 33 37 21

2009/10 80 0 20 30 30 23 0 64 20 19

2010/11 90 0 10 30 40 23 4 36 21 23

2011/12 80 0 0 30 50 16 23 . 16 20

2012/13 180 -10 20 60 100 33 . 37 29 38

2013/14 90 0 0 30 60 17 . 7 18 20

2014/15 260 10 20 90 140 39 42 41 37 40

2015/16 150 0 20 60 70 20 0 22 23 18

2016/17 (P) 250 0 0 110 140 27 0 6 35 27

All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+ All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+

2006/07 30 10 10 10 0 15 7 13 33 31

2007/08 50 20 20 0 0 23 20 43 7 26

2008/09 20 0 10 10 0 11 2 32 17 0

2009/10 40 20 20 0 0 19 15 48 2 .

2010/11 40 10 0 20 10 17 6 8 36 91

2011/12 30 30 -10 0 0 13 33 . 4 0

2012/13 20 0 10 10 0 8 . 9 26 17

2013/14 40 0 30 20 -10 20 4 58 38 .

2014/15 60 20 10 10 10 22 22 16 21 53

2015/16 10 10 0 0 0 4 11 . . 13

2016/17 (P) 60 20 20 20 0 24 15 38 36 11

Other mental and behavioural disorders (F04-F99)

Parkinson's, Alzheimer's and other degenerative nervous system diseases (G20-G32)

Other nervous system diseases (other G00-G99)




Dementia (F00-F03)



Table 8, continued

All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+ All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+

2006/07 100 20 10 30 40 38 31 36 33 47

2007/08 30 0 10 0 20 11 3 14 3 21

2008/09 40 10 10 20 -10 13 12 33 26 .

2009/10 40 0 10 0 30 15 3 24 . 37

2010/11 40 0 10 10 20 16 9 14 18 20

2011/12 10 10 -10 0 20 6 20 . . 19

2012/13 20 10 -10 -10 30 6 10 . . 38

2013/14 30 0 0 0 30 15 6 . . 49

2014/15 80 20 10 20 30 31 33 26 29 35

2015/16 50 10 20 10 0 21 33 66 16 .

2016/17 (P) 30 10 10 0 10 11 24 14 . 15

All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+ All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+

2006/07 60 20 0 30 10 20 31 6 24 13

2007/08 30 0 20 10 0 10 1 27 11 5

2008/09 40 10 20 0 10 13 12 42 . 12

2009/10 30 10 10 0 0 10 16 21 4 3

2010/11 70 10 0 20 40 22 17 3 20 57

2011/12 40 10 0 0 20 13 15 6 5 26

2012/13 70 20 10 10 20 22 32 18 14 27

2013/14 60 10 -10 20 40 19 11 . 19 56

2014/15 80 0 20 40 20 25 6 28 32 27

2015/16 100 30 20 30 20 29 35 31 26 26

2016/17 (P) 50 10 10 20 10 12 5 17 14 11

All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+ All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+

2006/07 90 0 10 50 30 9 1 7 23 13

2007/08 80 10 10 50 20 8 1 6 19 9

2008/09 130 40 30 10 50 13 11 17 4 26

2009/10 140 90 0 10 30 14 28 1 6 15

2010/11 110 100 10 -20 20 12 32 6 . 8

2011/12 50 30 10 0 10 5 9 6 0 3

2012/13 50 40 10 0 0 5 14 6 . 1

2013/14 30 -10 0 0 40 3 . 0 0 18

2014/15 100 20 20 30 30 10 8 9 11 13

2015/16 100 60 -20 40 20 10 23 . 15 10

2016/17 (P) 70 -30 20 30 50 7 . 8 11 19

All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+ All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+

2006/07 70 0 10 20 40 18 . 23 15 22

2007/08 0 0 0 -10 20 1 4 . . 10

2008/09 70 10 0 30 30 17 64 . 18 16

2009/10 30 0 0 10 20 8 14 6 5 10

2010/11 30 0 10 0 20 7 . 17 . 11

2011/12 20 0 0 0 20 6 6 . 4 11

2012/13 40 10 10 10 10 11 71 14 7 7

2013/14 50 0 0 10 30 13 . 9 12 17

2014/15 100 0 30 20 50 26 7 68 23 22

2015/16 70 0 10 20 40 19 12 25 18 20

2016/17 (P) 30 0 -10 10 20 10 8 . 14 14

Digestive system diseases (K00-K93)

Genitourinary system diseases (N00-N99)

Certain infectious and parasitic diseases (A00-B99)

Endocrine, nutritional and metabolic diseases (E00-E90)






Table 8, continued

All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+ All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+

2006/07 40 -10 0 20 20 19 . 14 36 24

2007/08 30 0 0 0 30 14 . . 6 30

2008/09 20 0 10 10 10 8 . 50 11 5

2009/10 50 10 0 30 10 25 46 20 54 6

2010/11 30 -10 20 20 -10 15 . 175 39 .

2011/12 10 -10 10 0 10 6 . 50 3 7

2012/13 50 0 0 20 30 23 11 . 27 32

2013/14 10 0 -10 10 10 5 . . 17 7

2014/15 20 0 20 0 10 9 . 114 . 6

2015/16 20 -10 10 10 20 9 . 27 8 13

2016/17 (P) 20 0 10 0 20 8 7 46 . 9

All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+ All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+

2006/07 -30 -40 -10 0 10 . . . 8 65

2007/08 0 -10 10 0 10 0 . 17 . 38

2008/09 0 -30 0 10 20 . . 7 32 69

2009/10 20 10 0 10 0 3 1 . 33 16

2010/11 120 70 20 10 10 22 16 54 37 71

2011/12 60 50 10 0 0 10 9 24 10 .

2012/13 -40 -40 0 -10 10 . . . . 54

2013/14 40 20 10 10 10 7 4 15 21 38

2014/15 40 40 0 0 0 7 8 5 1 .

2015/16 -10 -20 0 0 10 . . . 5 43

2016/17 (P) -10 -10 -10 -10 20 . . . . 100

All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+ All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+

2006/07 -20 -20 0 0 0 . . . . 100

2007/08 0 0 0 0 0 5 . 14 33 180

2008/09 20 10 0 0 0 36 31 56 33 100

2009/10 0 10 -10 0 0 6 26 . 0 .

2010/11 10 10 0 0 0 24 16 60 100 33

2011/12 0 0 0 0 0 5 4 . 0 300

2012/13 10 10 0 0 0 28 25 8 400 .

2013/14 -10 -10 0 0 0 . . . 50 100

2014/15 -10 -10 -10 0 0 . . . 45 .

2015/16 0 -20 0 10 0 . . . 550 100

2016/17 (P) -60 -50 -10 0 0 . . . . 100

All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+ All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+

2006/07 40 20 0 10 10 9 18 5 7 4

2007/08 30 0 10 -10 30 6 1 15 . 17

2008/09 70 20 10 30 20 16 13 23 25 11

2009/10 50 0 10 20 20 10 . 19 22 10

2010/11 130 30 10 20 80 29 20 12 17 46

2011/12 30 10 0 0 30 7 4 . 2 14

2012/13 20 -20 0 -10 40 3 . 4 . 21

2013/14 20 10 -10 10 10 5 8 . 14 5

2014/15 120 40 -10 20 70 25 30 . 16 38

2015/16 100 30 10 40 20 21 23 8 41 13

2016/17 (P) 50 20 0 20 10 10 17 4 19 4

Accidental falls (W00-W19)

Other external causes of death (other V01-Y98)

Ill-defined and unknown causes (R95-R99)


All other underlying causes of death





Table 8, continued

All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+ All ages 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+

2006/07 2,260 140 330 780 990 82% 74% 80% 80% 84%

2007/08 1,860 100 270 820 690 85% 77% 84% 93% 81%

2008/09 2,760 250 400 880 1,220 79% 68% 68% 75% 89%

2009/10 2,190 230 340 750 900 79% 50% 92% 84% 87%

2010/11 1,800 230 270 610 680 73% 56% 63% 85% 76%

2011/12 1,150 70 120 450 510 81% 30% 109% 102% 78%

2012/13 1,900 70 210 610 980 95% 78% 111% 102% 88%

2013/14 1,250 90 180 430 570 78% 64% 86% 81% 78%

2014/15 3,220 150 400 1,020 1,660 79% 56% 66% 82% 86%

2015/16 2,120 300 410 670 760 74% 67% 77% 74% 78%

2016/17 (P) 2,380 230 220 710 1,230 88% 115% 79% 88% 86%

Footnotes

Circulatory system diseases (I00-I99), Respiratory system diseases (J00-J99), Dementia (F00-F03) and Parkinson's,

Alzheimer's and other degenerative diseases (G20-G32)

may exceed 100% due to negative 'increases'

for some of the other causes

Seasonal increase in mortality in the winter 1, 2 Percentage of total seasonal increase

total of the rounded values for these causes of death

1) The 'Seasonal Increase in Mortality in the Winter' has been defined as the difference betw een the number of deaths in the four 'w inter' months (December -

March) and the average of the numbers of deaths in the preceding (August - November) and follow ing (April - July) non-w inter four-month periods. A negative

f igure occurs w hen there w ere few er deaths during the w inter period than the average of the tw o 'non-w inter' periods.

2) Because of the approximate nature of this measure, numbers have been rounded independently to the nearest 10. The sum of the age group figures may

therefore appear to differ from the 'all ages' total.

3) The Increased Winter Mortality (IWM) Index is the (unrounded) number of 'additional' w inter deaths divided by the (unrounded) average number of deaths in a four

month 'non-w inter' period, expressed as a percentage.



5) show ing the relevant codes from the International Statistical Classif ication of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision (ICD-10).

Changes in the cause of death coding softw are have caused breaks in the continuity of the f igures for some causes of death betw een (a) 2009/10, 2010/11 and

2011/12, and (b) 2015/16, 2016/17 and (in due course) 2017/18. More information about this is available from paragraphs 2.8, 4.8 and 4.9.


Figure 1: Seasonal Increase in Mortality in the Winter, Scotland, 1951/52 to 2016/17

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

1951/52 1955/56 1959/60 1963/64 1967/68 1971/72 1975/76 1979/80 1983/84 1987/88 1991/92 1995/96 1999/00 2003/04 2007/08 2011/12 2015/16

Additional deaths (Dec-Mar) 5-year moving average


Figure 2: Seasonal Increase in Mortality in the Winter and mean winter temperature (deg.C.), Scotland: (a) winter 1951/52 to winter 2016/17; and (b) winter 1997/98 to winter 2016/17

(a) winter 1951/52 to winter 2016/17

(b) winter 1997/98 to winter 2016/17

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00

Se

aso

nal

Incre

ase

in

Mo

rtality

in

Win

ter

Mean winter temperature (deg. C.)

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00

Se

aso

nal

Incre

ase

in

Mo

rtality

in

Win

ter

Mean winter temperature (deg. C.)


Figure 3: Seasonal Increase in Mortality in the Winter and indicators of influenza activity, Scotland: (a) winters and 'flu seasons - 1971/72 to 2007/08, inclusive; and (b) winters - 2003/04 to 2016/17, inclusive.

NB: in that period, the maximum "fluspotter" index value w as 3,412 for w inter 1971/72 (see Table 2)

NB: in that period, the maximum "SISRS" index value w as 230 for w inter 2008/09 (see Table 2)

(a) winters and 'flu seasons' - 1971/72 to 2007/08, inclusive

(b) winters - 2003/04 to 2016/17, inclusive

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000

Se

aso

na

l In

cre

ase

in

Mo

rtality

in

Win

ter

'Fluspotter' (Index: 2004/05 = 100)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

0 50 100 150 200 250Se

as

on

al

Inc

rea

se

in

Mo

rta

lity

in

Win

ter

'SISRS' (Index: 2004/05 = 100)


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Winter Mortality in Scotland 2016/17 · 2017-10-13 · 2.1 Table 1 shows recent trends in the seasonal increase in mortality in the winter for Scotland as a whole. It is estimated