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8/3/2019 Wind Micro Generation Rui Bernardo
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1 February 2012Rui Bernardo
Wind MicrogenerationWind Microgeneration
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Overview
1. Structuring the study
2. Wind behavior
3. Modeling the wind
4. Electricity production estimation
5. Economic evaluation
6. Results
7. Conclusions
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1. Structuring the study
Wind data(ms-1 vs. hours)
Generator data(kW vs. ms-1)
Tariff( vs. kWh)
Electricity(kWh)
NPV()
Investment()
Maintenance()
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2. Wind behavior
Wind varies in speed (modulus and direction)
In timeIn time
Lisbon, November
Modulus
Direction
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2. Wind behavior
In spaceIn space
Modulus Direction
Wind varies in speed (modulus and direction)
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3. Modeling the wind
Anemometer
GPRS Network
The best way
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3. Modeling the wind
0,00000
0,02000
0,04000
0,06000
0,08000
0,10000
0,12000
f(u)
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25
Wind speed [m/s]
Distribution of wind speed over a year
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3. Modeling the wind
Without accurate data
2
422
!avgu
u
avg
euuuf
T
T
Wind speed(m/s)
Annual averagewind speed (m/s)
Rayleigh Distribution
ProbabilityDistribution for
wind speed
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3. Modeling the wind
ResendeDistrict of Viseu
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3. Modeling the wind
2
4
22
! avguu
avg
euuuf
T
Tuavg=5 ms-1
Distribution probability of wind speed
0,00000
0,05000
0,10000
0,15000
0,20000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
wind speed (u) [m/s]
f(u)
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Distribution probability of wind speed
0,00000
0,05000
0,10000
0,15000
0,20000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
wind speed (u) [m/s]
f(u)
4. Electricity production estimation
0,1
P [kW] f[P(u)]
0,1 0.15
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4. Electricity production estimation
Considered modelsBornay 1500 W Chinese model 2 kWBornay 3000 W
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!
vv!26
0
8760
ueyear uPufE
4. Electricity production estimation
u [ms-1] f(u)
0 0,00000
1 0,06089
2 0,11082
3 0,14207
4 0,15203
5 0,14324
6 0,12166
7 0,09435
8 0,06731
9 0,04439
10 0,02715
11 0,01544
12 0,00818
13 0,00404
14 0,00186
15 0,00080
16 0,00032
17 0,00012
18 0,00004
19 0,00001
20 0,00000
Pe [W]
0,00
0,00
0,00
120,00
180,00
240,00
360,00
600,00
720,00
840,00
960,00
1080,00
1200,00
1260,00
1320,00
1080,00
1020,00
1080,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
Pe [W]
0,00
0,00
0,00
240,00
360,00
480,00
720,00
1200,00
1440,00
1680,00
1920,00
2160,00
2400,00
2520,00
2640,00
2160,00
2040,00
2160,00
0,00
0,00
0,00
Bornay1500
Pe [W]
0,00
0,00
0,00
80,00
100,00
160,00
200,00
300,00
400,00
540,00
800,00
1000,00
1600,00
1800,00
2400,00
2000,00
1600,00
1400,00
1000,00
800,00
600,00
Bornay3000
Chinesemodel
Bornay1500
Bornay3000
ChineseModel
Eyear[kWh]
2.859,092 5.718,184 1.904,041
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5. Economic evaluation
Remuneration applied to MG units is stated in the law *
First 10 MW set is remunerated at 70% of 650 /MWh (T1-5}455 /MWh) on the first
5 years of operation
Annual limit starts at 10 MW in the 1st year and increases 20% every following
year
Every additional set of licensed 10 MW implies a reduction of 5% in the tariff
After 5 years the remuneration is updated every year until it reaches the normaltariff or until 15 years of operation
Installation takes place in 2008
Annual power limit is always reached
Equipment has a total life time of, at least, 20 years
Assumptions for this study
*Decreto-Lei 363/2007, 1 srie n 211, 2 Novembro 2007
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5. Economic evaluation
Remuneration ov
er the life time
T1-5 T6-15 T16-
Year ofinstallation
(2008)
ri=455 /MWh
2013 2023
si=Decreasingtariff
ni=110 /MWh
n [year] Remuneration [/MWh]
6,0 317,743
7,0 286,763
8,0 245,864
9,0 200,258
10,0 154,956
11,0 113,907
12,0 110,000
13,0 110,000
14,0 110,000
15,0 110,000
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5. Economic evaluation
Turbinecontroller
InverterExportmeter
Importmeter
Basic equipment
Solar panel(2 m2) *
* Obliged by the law for microgeneration
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5. Economic evaluation
Investment
Bornay 1500[]
Bornay 3000[]
Chinesemodel 2 kW
Turbine 4.856 6.954 572Inverter 1.230 1.230 220
Tower 2.275 2.275 353
Solar thermal * 2.108 2.108 2.108
TOTAL 10.199,00 12.587,00 3.253,60
Not including meters and licensing
Maintenance costs (OM): around 2% of installation costs
Maintenance
* Conergy TS
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5. Economic Evaluation
Net Present Value (NPV):
t
j
jj
j
jj
j
jjI
a
OMN
a
OMS
a
OMRNPV
v
v
v! !!!
20
16
15
6
5
1 1
1)(
1
1)(
1
1)(
EyearxT1-5 Discount rate=8% EyearxT6-15 EyearxT16-
InvestmentOperation and
Maintenance (2%)
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6. Results
NPV for 5 years
-12.000,00
-10.000,00
-8.000,00
-6.000,00
-4.000,00
-2.000,00
0,00
0,00 1,00 2,00 3,00 4,00 5,00 6,00
n [years]
NPV []
Bornay 1500
Bornay 3000
Chinese
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6. Results
NPV for 20 years
-12.000,00
-10.000,00
-8.000,00
-6.000,00
-4.000,00
-2.000,00
0,00
2.000,00
4.000,00
0,00 5,00 10,00 15,00 20,00 25,00
n [years]
NPV []Bornay 1500
Bornay 3000
Chinese
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7. Conclusions
Economic viability of a wind microgeneration unit depends onan accurate knowledge of resource, of turbines and of theirrelation
The most suitable turbine for a certain place can be theworst for a different location!
From the considered models
Bornay 1500 is the worst option, since never gives a positiveNPV for the whole considered life time period
Chinese model gives positive NPV earlier, but Bornay 3000offers more guarantees
NPV can be greater since normal tariff is not being affectedby inflation rate
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7. Conclusions
1921-1924
William Arthur Ward
the pessimistcomplains aboutthe wind;
the optimist expectsit to change;
the realist adjuststhe sails.