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D Lindley: Energy 2100. 08.05.06 1

Wind and Tidal Energy

- a vision of the future ??

Dr David Lindley: Ocean Power Delivery Ltd

Energy 2100: The Royal Academy of Engineering: 8 May 2006

World wind energy capacity (MW)

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EU25


The sixteen leading wind countries

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Wind Energy as a % of total installed capacity

-2.000.002.004.006.008.00

10.0012.0014.0016.0018.0020.00

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Spain USA Germany UK


The largest owners of wind farms


500

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FPLIberdrolaEHNPPM SPEurusShellEndesaEnergi E2NuonAlliantElsamENEL


Current Practice and Future Trends

Offshore wind (Round II) c.7GW

Wind - 2020?

Existing wind farms c. 890MW to date

IrelandGB

Applications for connection c. 18GW

Also 1GW offshore (Round I)plus onshore in England and Wales

UPDATE: As of May 2006 operational wind farms ~1400 MW and 1100MW under construction

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^^Lely

Emden

Blyth

Nysted

Samsoe

VindebyHorns Rev

Tuno KnobUtgrunden

Arklow Bank

Bockstingen

Scroby Sands Irene Vorrink

Middelgrunden

Frederikshaven

North Hoyle

Yttre Stengrund

Existing Offshore Wind farms: 2004

606.6 MW


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Emden

Blyth

Nysted

Samsoe

VindebyHorns Rev

Tuno KnobUtgrunden

Arklow Bank

Bockstingen

Scroby Sands Irene Vorrink

Middelgrunden

Frederikshaven

Q7

Lynn

BarrowButendiek

Robin Rigg

Borkum West

Thornton Bank

Inner Dowsing

Kentish Flats

North Hoyle

Yttre Stengrund

Nordzeewind

Gunfleet Sands

Offshore Wind Farms : 2009 ?

>2000MW


Offshore turbines will be “different”

5m per annum

15 MW205 m

316 kW per annum 170m10 MW

2004 …………20201990


Wind Energy Development Trends

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Average rated power of w ind turbines installed (kW) Specific price of w ind turbines (DKK/kWh) relative to 2000 prices

Until 1985– Concept

development– Unit size < 100kW– Single units

1985-1995– Many small companies,

strong competition– Unit size quadruples in 10

years– Small w ind farms c.10MW

1995-today– Average unit size grows >

1MW, w ind farms up to c.100MW

– Growth of offshore wind, business consolidation

Future– Unit size grows >

5MW, w ind power plants up to c.1000MW

– Market diversif ied geographically

– Continued expansion of offshore w ind

Cumulative global capacity1,000MW 2,000MW 5,000MW 18,000MW 60,000MW 75,000MW

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Average rated power of w ind turbines installed (kW) Specific price of w ind turbines (DKK/kWh) relative to 2000 prices

Until 1985– Concept

development– Unit size < 100kW– Single units

1985-1995– Many small companies,

strong competition– Unit size quadruples in 10

years– Small w ind farms c.10MW

1995-today– Average unit size grows >

1MW, w ind farms up to c.100MW

– Growth of offshore wind, business consolidation

Future– Unit size grows >

5MW, w ind power plants up to c.1000MW

– Market diversif ied geographically

– Continued expansion of offshore w ind

Cumulative global capacity1,000MW 2,000MW 5,000MW 18,000MW 60,000MW 75,000MW


Capital Costs of existing offshore wind farms

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17

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1040

160

23

60158

6090

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1990 1995 2000 2005

Cap

ital c

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£m/M

W]

Onshore wind farms

Onshore wind farms



Marine Renewables - Wave & Tidal Power

Tidal Power Barrage• Use of a Barrage to Impound the Tide & extraction of the

Potential Energy to drive Turbines (similar to Hydropower)

Marine Current (Tidal Stream)• Extraction of the Kinetic Energy in Tidal Currents

Wave Power• Extraction of Energy from Wave motion

Tidal Barrage PowerProven Technology: La Rance in France has generated

tidal power reliably for nearly 40 years


Operational and proposed Marine energy projects worldwide



Severn Tidal Barrage

• UK potential mainly from Severn Estuary

• 17TWh = 5% of UK electricity supply

• Rated at 8640MW• 7p/kWh (incl. financing &

grid upgrade)• Estimated capital cost

=£14 billion (2006)• Constraints

- Project financing- Environmental issues

Tidal Power Barrage operation

D Lindley: Energy 2100. 08.05.06 17Tidal Power Barrage Operation

Severn Barrage Layout (1989 Report)Severn Barrage Layout (1989 report)

• 216 Turbines 40MW each

• 166 Sluices

• Ship Locks

• Small Locks

• Public Road

• Railway (possibly)

•216 turbines (40MW each)

•166 sluices

•Ship locks

•Small locks

•Public Road

•Railway (possibly)


Mersey Barrage Proposal 1992700MW capacity & 1.45TWh/year output

Mersey Barrage Proposal 1992700 MW capacity & 1.45 TWh/year output

Estimated Capital cost (1992) = £900 million


Tidal Stream Resource (Black & Veitch - for Carbon Trust - 2004-5)

Location Total TWh/year

ExtractableTWh/year

EconomicTWh/year

UK 90 18 ~12

?

?

Europe(excl. UK)

90 17

Worldwide(remainder)

600 ? 120 ?


Tidal Stream Sites around the UK

• Tidal Streams around the UK with Spring Tide > 2 m/s

• Water 800 times denser than air• Water flow of 1m/s carries the

same energy density as a wind flow of 9m/s

• Constraints- Technology at an early stage- Best sites are remote ( e.g Orkneys

and Channel Isles)- Costs uncertain at present

>9p/KWh for first farmsD Lindley: Energy 2100. 08.05.06 21


2004

UK Tidal Currents at Mean Spring TideFrom Atlas of Marine Renewable Energy Resources – Dti 2004

UK Tidal Current at Mean Spring TideFrom Atlas of Marine Renewable resources – DTI 2004

Tidal Current Device Types

• Horizontal axis Turbines

• Vertical axis Turbines

• Oscillating Hydrofoil Devices

• Venturi Devices

•Vertical axis Turbines

•Oscillating Hydrofoil Devices

•Venturi devices

•Horizontal axis Turbines


Tidal Stream Development

Seagen – 1MW deviceMarine Current TurbinesProposal -Approved 2006 for installation in Strangford LoughNorthern Ireland



Lunar Energy – seated on the seabed – 1MW Prototype planned for 2006/7

Lunar Energy – seated on the seabed – 1MW Prototype planned for 2006/7

Buoyant device, moored at mid water depth

TidEl by Hydrovision –Buoyant device, moored at mid water depth

Summary of Constraints to Development of Marine

RenewablesFor Tidal Barrages• Environmental Consents• Financing & lack of long term market• Construction risk & cost consequences

For Tidal Stream & Wave• The need for successful demonstration projects• Need to reduce costs • Costs of grid connection• Need for additional support (ROC’s + ) after

Demonstration projects and during Development stageD Lindley: Energy 2100. 08.05.06 26


Integration of Intermittent energy

sources and Forecasting

The “Virtual” Power System –Challenges of managing a distributed Power System

Source: EWE, Germany D Lindley: Energy 2100. 08.05.06 28

Wave & Wind Energy are intermittent but not unpredictable.

Tidal energy is predictable


The “Virtual “ Power system -A challenge to manage integration of intermittent sources



Range of findings related to additional reserves with increasingpenetration of intermittent supplies


Source: UK Energy Research Centre: “The costs and impacts of Intermittency - an assessment of the evidence”March 2006

Range of findings on the cost of additional reserve requirements


Source: UK Energy Research Centre. “The costs and Impacts of Intermittency – an assessment of the evidence”March 2006

Range of findings on capacity credit of intermittent generation


Source: UK Energy Research Centre: “The costs and Impacts of Intermittency – an assessment of the evidence”. March 2006

Aggregate costs of Intermittency for 20% wind penetration

•Short –run balancing costs = £2 to £3 /MWh

•Maintaining a higher system margin = £3 to £5 /MWh

•Total costs = £5 to £8 /MWh

•This is to be compared with direct costs of wind generation of between £30 to £55/MWh. If shared between all consumers the impact of intermittency on electricity prices = 0.1 to 0.15p/kWh.

Source: UK Energy Research Centre: The costs and impacts of intermittency. March 2006



EU and IEA reference scenarios for wind energy


The 1999 Commission base scenario projections for wind, solar and geothermal was 9.4 GW in 2000, 16 GW in 2005, 23 GW in 2010, 34.4 GW in 2015 and 46.2 GW in 2020.

•The 2015 figure had already been reached at the end of 2004 by wind alone.

In 2003 the Commission Baseline scenario projections for wind and solar were 28.6 GW in 2005, 74 GW in 2010, 92.6 GW in 2015, 105.3 GW in 2020, 126.4 GW in 2025 and 149.4 GW in 2030

•Between 1996 and 2003, the Commission’s estimate of how much wind power would be built in 2010 was increased ninefold.

In 2004 the Commission Baseline scenario projections for wind and solar were 28 GW in 2005, 73.2 GW in 2010, 91.7 GW in 2015, 104.1 GW in 2020, 125.2 GW in 2025 and 149.2 GW in 2030.

300 (2003)

Future forecasts for wind power in Europe(IEA, EU and EWEA_


What is possible in 2100• 20% of electricity from Wind power ( cf. Energy White

paper/Innovation review target of 10% from renewables by 2010-which would require ~ 7500MW of new wind capacity and 15% by 2015.)

• 6% of electricity from Tidal Power ( Severn Tidal Barrage and Mersey barrage =9340MW)

• 1% of electricity ( 4TWh) from Tidal streams Energy (ref: Kerr: Proc ICE.Nov 2005). Realisable potential 22TWh. ( ref. UK Marine Renewables Atlas. The Carbon trust)


Note: At the end of 2004 renewables contributed 3.7% of UK electricity. Currently about 2500MW of wind farms are operational or under construction ~about 1600MW more than existed at end of 2004

Conclusions:A “New” paradigm –”Joined up thinking” is required.

Government Renewables Aspirations will not be met unless:-Government Aspirations will not be met unless:--• A commitment is made now to

invest to remove grid constraints• A mechanism is put in place to deal

more efficiently with the planning process

• A mechanism is put in place to deal with connection applications.

• The “Funding Gap” is closed for New and emerging technology Pathfinder projects”appropriate to their technical and commercial status [viz; Use Marine Fund ASAP] to enable UK companies to take advantage

of current lead ; create IPR value, new industries and jobs

• An augmented or “double ROC”mechanism is put in place to support early Pathfinder Marine RenewablesProjects

• THEN:-• Wind energy could contribute 20% of

UK electricity before 2030• Tidal barrages could contribute 6% by

2030 but need Govt. support for long term ROC type contracts

• Other tidal could contribute 1% by 2030



David Lindley thanks you for listening –any questions??


Meeting the challenge – Opportunities and Barriers


• Transmission constraintsif real and not fixed this is major constraint to meeting Govt. aspirations

• 13GW of connection applications –needs a prioritisation mechanism [£??]

• Planning –needs a prioritisation mechanism or more resources and greater acceptance of national priorities

• Emerging technologies [e.g marine] - need to lower generation costs via Pathfinder projects

• Offshore SEA could be a “killer blow” to the marine renewablesindustry

• Pathfinder projects need financial support from Marine fund ASAP. Funding should be appropriate to the commercial readiness of the technology

• “Augmented” ROC mechanism or “double ROC’s” needed for early marine projects

Tidal Stream Prototypes


Seaflow – 300kW at 2.7m/sMarine Current Turbines - installed

2003 in Bristol Channel

Stingray – 150kW at 2m/sThe Engineering Business –

installed 2002 in Shetland Isles

Stingray – 150kW at 2m/s.The Engineering Business –installed 2002 – Shetland Isles

Time history for April@ a 6 hour forecast horizon

GH Forecaster Hourly Power EvaluationForecast Horizon T + 6 hrs

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Power: 3 month time history @ a 12 hour forecast horizon

GH Forecaster Hourly Power EvaluationForecast Horizon T + 12 hrs

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Capacity penetration (normalised by MD): Future


System MD Wind capacity anticipated

Germany 75 GW 2012: 29.4 GW (39%)Spain 37 GW 2010: 20 GW (54%)RoI 4.5 GW 2010: 1.1 GW (24%)GB 62 GW 2010: 8 GW (13%)Scotland 5.9 GW 2020: 6 GW (100%)Alberta 7.9 GW 2008: 0.8 GW (10%)Québec 37 GW 2012: 2.2 GW (6%)


Relationship between capacity credit and reliability cost, GB relevant capacity credits and system characteristics


Source: UK Energy Research Centre: “The costs and Impacts of Intermittency –an assessment of the evidence”March 2006

Reliability costs of intermittent generation = Fixed costs of energy equivalent thermal plant minus the avoided fixed costs of thermal plant that is displaced by the capacity credit of wind


Tidal Barrage Projects & ProposalsCountry Location Power

MWEnergy TWh/yr

France La Rance 240 0.5

3.3

2.5

31.0

1.4

3.9

1.1

1.8

18.5

Canada Bay of Fundy – Cumberland basin 1,400

China Various 1,000

Russia Mezan Bay & Tugur 28,000

Korea Siwha & Garolim 740

India Khambat 1,800

Australia Secure Bay & Cape Keraudren 600

Argentina San Jose / Nuevo 600

UK Severn & Mersey 9,300

Tidal Barrage projects and proposals

Proposed elevation and plan of the 16km long Severn Barrage


Proposed plan of the 2km long Mersey Barrage


Proposed location of the UK’s 8640 MW Severn Tidal barrage


Barrage Construction

Caissons built at deep water sites around the UK (& Europe) and towed to the site

Turbine Generators installed at the site with heavy lift crane

Barrage ConstructionCaissons built at deep water sites around the UK(& Europe) and towed to site

Turbine Generators installed at the site with heavy lift crane



Ebb Generation (preferred)

Flood Generation

Two-way Generation

Ebb Generation

(preferred)

Flood Generation

Two way Generation

Tidal Barrage Generation

Tidal Barrage Generation

e Proposal 2005 West coast of KoreaFlood generation scheme – to keep basin water levels low & to alleviate pollution in the lake

Siwha Power Barrage proposal 2005 West coast of KoreaFlood generation scheme to keep water levels low & to alleviate pollution in the lake



Barrage: 254MW capacity - output 0.55TWh/yr

Construction started 2006

Siwha Barrage: 254 MW capacity – output 0.557TWh/year

Construction started 2006

Proposed location of the UK’s 700MW Mersey Barrage


Offshore wind farm project size


020406080

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Offshore wind farms : Distance offshore


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D Lindley: Energy 2100. 08.05.06 62Current Practice and Future Trends

Wind - 2005

IrelandGB

Existing wind farms c. 890MW to date

Future of Offshore Wind Power in UK

• Capital Costs• Construction Risk• Operations costs and

risks• Contracting• Other technical issues


g


The Barrage impounds the tide, then the water is released through a bulb turbine to generate electricity

Tidal Barrage – Typical cross sectionTidal Barrage – Typical Cross SectionThe barrage impounds the tide, then the water is released through

bulb turbines to generate electricity

Overview


L

Output• Power Forecast

Inputs• Numerical Weather Prediction• SCADA System• Site Measurements

Weather Service


MW added in 2005


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SpainIndia

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Italy UK NL

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D Lindley: Energy 2100. 08.05.06 68Source: UK Energy Research Centre: The costs and Impacts of Intermittency” March 2006

Documents

Wind and Tidal Energy - a vision of the future · -2.00 0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 14.00 16.00 18.00 20.00 ... 1 986 1 987 1 988 1 989 1 990 1 991 1 992 1 993 1 994 1 995