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College of Business Administration University of Rhode Island 20 /20 No. 1 This working paper series is intended to facilitate discussion and encourage the exchange of ideas. Inclusion here does not preclude publication elsewhere. It is the original work of the author(s) and subject to copyright regulations. WORKING PAPER SERIES encouraging creative research Office of the Dean College of Business Administration Ballentine Hall 7 Lippitt Road Kingston, RI 02881 401-874-2337 www.cba.uri.edu William A. Orme Ruby Roy Dholakia and Nikhilesh Dholakia

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College of Business Administration

University of Rhode Island

2013/2014 No. 10

This working paper series is intended tofacilitate discussion and encourage the

exchange of ideas. Inclusion here does notpreclude publication elsewhere.

It is the original work of the author(s) andsubject to copyright regulations.

WORKING PAPER SERIESencouraging creative research

Office of the DeanCollege of Business AdministrationBallentine Hall7 Lippitt RoadKingston, RI 02881401-874-2337www.cba.uri.edu

William A. Orme

Ruby Roy Dholakia and Nikhilesh Dholakia

Scholarly Research in Marketing: Trends and Challenges in the Era of Big Data

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Scholarly Research in Marketing: Trends and Challenges in the Era of Big Data

A shorter version to appear as a Chapter in International Encyclopedia of Digital

Communication & Society

Ruby Roy Dholakia, Ph.D.

Professor of Marketing and Electronic Commerce

College of Business Administration

The University of Rhode Island

Kingston, R.I. 02881

And

Nikhilesh Dholakia, Ph.D.

Professor of Marketing and International Business

College of Business Administration

The University of Rhode Island

Kingston, R.I. 02881

2013

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Introduction

In 1977, Dholakia and Dholakia (1977) painted a futuristic scenario that would have

consumers shopping and paying for groceries on their TV screens and the selected items

delivered through a pneumatically-propelled chute into the consumer’s kitchen. In 2013, even in

technologically advanced countries like USA, Germany or South Korea, the reality does not

quite match the optimistic scenario, although it is being approximated along many dimensions.

One consequence of technological advances in electronic commerce is the generation of

“massive quantities of information produced by and about people, things and their interactions”

(boyd and Crawford 2012). According to EMC Corporation, one of the key players in the Big

Data business, the key question is “no longer whether big data can help business, but how can

business derive maximum results from big data” (EMC² (nd)). For marketing in particular,

practitioners as well as academics, an old debate on prediction vs. explanation has become louder

as Big Data has increased pressures for integrating conventional data management methods and

governance processes. In this chapter, we examine how marketing is responding to these

challenges raised by Big Data and the issues surrounding these responses. First, we provide a

brief history of marketing thought and how it has influenced research conducted by marketing

scholars and practitioners. Next, we outline the impacts of Big Data on marketing practice as

well as on marketing research: in business as well as academic settings. The emergent picture is

one of increasing technical sophistication but also of increasing expediency, with firms racing to

find ways to discover the influence points and buttons that could be pushed to channel consumer

behavior away from competitors and towards the firm’s brands. While such goals – of

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influencing and channeling consumer behaviors away from competitors and towards – have

always been important for business and marketing strategists, what are new in the era of Big

Data are the ontological and epistemic shifts (Zwick and Dholakia 2006a, Zwick and Dholakia

2006b), somewhat away from explanation seeking and market/consumer orientation and towards

automated prediction and programming of customer responses.

History of marketing research: past, present and future

As a relatively new discipline, marketing has traveled far and fast. The first major

change occurred when the ‘marketing concept’ (McKitteric 1957) propelled marketing

practitioners and academics alike to put the consumer in the center. Since then, the role and

power of the consumer/customer has become central to the evolving history of marketing

thought and practice. Companies that have adopted customer-centric organizational structures

have experienced improved financial performance, particularly if they compete in different end

markets or have large divisions (Lee et al. 2012).

In the ancient and medieval market activities – when the producer was small, local and in

direct contact with the buyers – market knowledge emanated from the buyer-seller interactions

and there was no need for organized mass marketing. As the scale of production increased, the

distance – temporal, spatial as well as informational – between the buyer and the seller increased.

It soon became evident that special efforts were required to connect with and satisfy customers.

Intuition and personal connections were no longer sufficient to make successful and profitable

business decisions, and marketing as a discipline emerged.

Understanding the consumer in an environment of rapidly expanding and changing

consumer needs and wants became key to business success and led to development of various

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models of market response (Amstutz 1967; Bass 1969; Kotler 1964). Central to these

developments were comprehensive databases constructed from multiple data sources: internal

transaction records, market surveys and experiments, and secondary sources such as Census

demographics. Practitioner research focused on collecting and analyzing data on customer

behaviors and preferences which became a key to sustained competitive advantage. Companies,

using a variety of methods, collected data, both soft and hard, which were then combined with

internal data such as transactional histories. The challenge of integrating these data types was

considerable. As Breur (2011) notes, matching datasets – acquired data such as market research

data without individual names and transactional data with names – is a mathematical problem

but can provide insights. Organizations that have been able to deploy marketing analytics are

able to enjoy its benefits, particularly if they operate in a competitive environment and the needs

of their customers change frequently (Germann, Lilien and Rangaswamy, 2013).

Marketing scholars contributed concepts and analytical tools that furthered the

theoretical, empirical and analytical underpinnings of the discipline. The concept of customer

loyalty, for instance, is not only a major goal driving marketing practice but guides and provides

measures of marketing effectiveness: “Without question, loyalty is important. Loyal customers

hang on for years, devote a larger share of their wallet to the company, and recommend the

company to their friends. Customer loyalty, in short, helps drive profits” (Keiningham et al.

2012).

The limitations of the practitioner approaches to customer loyalty quickly became

apparent to marketing scholars whose focus on attitudinal as well as the behavioral determinants

of loyalty (Jacoby and Chestnut 1978) have led to identification and elaboration of different

loyalty concepts such as latent and spurious loyalty (Javalgi and Moberg 1997). This has further

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evolved into the concept and measurement of ‘customer lifetime value’ (CLV) which is more in

tune with business goals than short-term transactional benefits. As Kumar and his colleagues

(2013) note, “CLV is a forward-looking metric that does not prioritize loyalty over profit” (p.

340), or as Keiningham and his colleagues note (2012) “When customer value is included in the

measure of loyalty, the goals of improving loyalty and financial performance are synchronized”.

While a valuable concept, CLV fails to incorporate total purchases in a product category since

most managers lack data on their customer purchases from competitors; Chen and Steckel (2012)

proposed a mathematical solution which they believe will allow managers to estimate the

lifetime category value of the customer.

After the rise of customer orientation, a second major change occurred when

technological advances not only altered the competitive context, but transformed the marketer-

customer relationships. Direct response methods such as telemarketing and email marketing as

well as online information and transaction channels expanded consumer choices and contact

points. Direct marketing became possible at low cost. Unsolicited email pitches, for instance,

became cost-effective at very low response rates, as low as 0.5% (Gopal, Walter and Tripathi

2001). Scott (2011) cites the example of Universal Studios Orlando which used seven Harry

Potter ‘super-fan bloggers’ to spread the word about the new Harry Potter attraction, reaching an

estimated 350 million fans at a fraction of the cost of traditional media. One business-to-business

company found that a new customer has 20 “touchpoints” with the company. Pharmacy giant

Walgreen found that a multi-channel user spends six times more than a typical store-only

shopper (Murphy 2013). The growth of direct marketing not only increased contact points

(“touchpoints”) but led to a jump in the variety, velocity, and volume of data.

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The explosion of behavioral data, from the multiple touchpoints controlled by the

marketer, as well as from external networks such as Facebook and Twitter, is the latest challenge

faced by marketing. In this context, marketing has to not only understand consumer motivations

but also to demonstrate to the customers that their preferences are remembered (Dholakia and

Zwick 2011). It is no longer about a promotion, a script; ‘it’s about a two-way discussion… and

every one of us will expect something in return, whether you’re a citizen, or an employee or a

customer” (Ginny Rometting, CEO of IBM, quoted in Henschen, 2013). The marketer has to not

only gather and analyze data, but has to show consistently and repeatedly that marketing offers

are connected to the data generated by individual consumers (Zwick and Dholakia 2012).

Personalization and mass customization constitute the new Holy Grail of customer-centric

marketing. A review of the approach in the automobile industry notes that the goal is to deliver

precisely the car that a customer wants, as and when he wants it: goodbye inventory, hello “mass

customisation” (The Economist, 2001).

The explosion of data and the need to develop relevant and competitive insights have

created big challenges for data integration and analysis to provide both explanation and

prediction. According to McKinsey & Company (2013), the managerial challenge is to determine

“which data to use, how to source it and how to get it together into an integrated form”. As

Devlin (2012) notes, ‘…marketing analysis has to move from sampling to full dataset analysis,

transitioning from demographic segments to “markets of one”, and from longer-term trending of

historical data to near real-time reaction to emerging events’ (p. 3). boyd and Crawford (2012)

are more critical arguing that all the components of Big Data – technology, analysis and

mythology – together “reframes key questions about the constitution of knowledge, the processes

of research, how we should engage with information and the nature and categorization of reality”

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(p.665). Similarly, Zwick and Dholakia (2012) argue that “…increase in available consumer

data, computational power, and analytical skills have led to a reorganization of the gaze of the

marketer… instead of flexibly adjusting production regimes to shifting consumption patterns

(what we conventionally refer to as marketing orientation), database marketers collapse the

production-consumption dichotomy by manufacturing customers as the actual product (which

could be seen as a return to the production concept)” (p. 443).

Trends and Challenges in Scholarly Research

Because marketing is considered to be an applied field of study, most of the problems

studied by marketing scholars have a managerial focus in that the knowledge generated is

ultimately aimed at contributing to managerial practice. Several different routes to address the

central concern of understanding customer/consumer behaviors have been adopted by marketing

scholars. In general, the approaches can be classified into two categories – those that emphasize

explanation and understanding and those that emphasize prediction. These two broad

approaches face different challenges in the current context of Big Data.

Those marketing scholars emphasizing the ‘process’ or the ‘black box’ intervening

between marketing inputs and consumer responses have focused on ‘explanation’ and

‘understanding’ as the key objectives of scholarly research. Research by these scholars has

favored methodologies that use small samples, often conveniently chosen, responding to stimuli

carefully constructed and implemented in laboratory settings. For instance, customer satisfaction

is a key concept in marketing practice and of central concern to marketing practitioners. Folkes

(1984) studied consumer satisfaction in terms of reactions to product failure and her research

effort relied on undergraduate students and hypothetical product failure scenarios in order to

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develop and test “a theoretical model …. to map out relationships between specific thoughts

about product failure and specific complaining behaviors” (p. 398). The conflict between a

theoretical model and its practical applications is apparent when the author concludes that the

“ability of an attributional approach to predict whether consumer complaining behaviors will

actually occur is limited” (p. 409).

The pressures to generalize theory and effects to real-world situations have come from

both marketing scholars and particularly from practitioners and students who have to translate

marketing theories and market knowledge into specific actions. Much of consumer behavior

research is devoted to theory application with high internal validity, notes Winer (1999), but

built from data using laboratory experiments and student subjects. He argues that scholarly

research “should at least point the way toward more generalization of empirical findings than is

usually the case” (p. 352). Devlin (2012) supports this position as he believes that “the ultimate

goal is prediction of customer behavior and outcomes of proposed actions such as next best

offer” (p. 3). According to O’Driscoll and Murray (2010), ‘synchrony in theory and practice

adds value to the management of the enterprise and to the advance of the discipline’ (p.391).

Consumer scholars who focus on ‘explanation’ have had to therefore pursue a few additional

paths to designing and conducting their research in order to generate scientific as well as

managerially useful knowledge.

The first major change in explanatory research was the design of multiple studies in order

to expand the domains within which theory applications hold true. Dhar and Nowlis (1999), for

instance, examined the general problem of consumer decision making under time pressure. They

developed testable hypotheses regarding the factors that affect such decision making, conducted

five studies (within one published paper) with multiple product stimuli (binoculars, cordless

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phones, cameras, microwave ovens, automobiles, portable computers, TVs, apartments and

restaurants) to determine the boundary conditions of their theory. As a result, they were able to

draw managerial implications such as “impact of unique features is even greater when decisions

are made under time pressure” (p.383) or that “managers should consider not only the attribute

values of their brands but also the relationship among the available alternatives” (p. 382).

Lalwani and Shavitt (2013) conducted seven studies to examine price-quality judgments and the

influence of self-construal. Despite multiple studies, scholarly articles still emphasized small and

undergraduate student samples.

The second major change in explanatory research was to test hypotheses using field

generated data. This effort takes two forms. One is to recruit ‘normal’ consumers to participate

in the research using a variety of methods. For instance, Banerjee and Dholakia (2014) used a

market research agency to recruit a sample of mobile device owners from a national panel with 2

million volunteer participants. Similarly, Chae and Hoegg (2013) recruited members from ‘a

national subject pool’ to complete an online study in addition to using student samples to test the

theory. To look at the issue of customization, Franke, Keinz, and Steger (2009) conducted two

experimental studies using fictitious products with self-administered online questionnaires. Two

random samples were drawn from Austria’s leading online panel. Kim (2013) also conducted

multiple studies but all the studies tested the hypotheses with consumers who were members of

online panels (Study 1 & 2), recruited by a research firm (Study 3), and shoppers interviewed in

a convenience store chain (Study 4). Castro, Morales and Nowlis (2013) were innovative in their

approach using both undergraduate students and real consumers in their studies but also

manipulated the experimental stimuli (shelf display) in an actual store and generated real sales

data. The method of recruiting normal consumers has become easier as many online panels –

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such as those from Zoomerang and Amazon – have become commercially affordable and are

available across multiple countries. Studies using ‘real consumers’ selected or recruited by these

methods still rely, however, on relatively small sample sizes.

An alternative approach is to examine marketing and consumer behaviors using data

commercially collected by private or research firms. One set of data, proprietary to a specific

firm, is often made available to researchers for academic purposes. Kumar and Venkatesan

(2005) used data from a large manufacturer of computer hardware and software to examine

multichannel buyer behavior. The database was large enough to test the hypotheses among one

sample and evaluate the predictive accuracy of the proposed model among a holdout sample with

each sample size being over 3,000. Similarly, Dholakia, Zhao and Dholakia (2005) used

purchase data from a multi-channel retailer who had recently introduced an internet channel.

The database contained information on over 5 million customers and the researchers used

specific criteria to select over half a million customer experiences for the analysis.

Other researchers have used customer databases made available widely for academic

research. POPAI, an association for the point-of-purchase advertising industry, periodically

conducts surveys among shoppers. Inman, Winer and Ferraro (2009) used data collected in 1995

among ‘2300 consumers at 28 grocery stores across 14 geographically dispersed U.S. cities’ to

examine in-store consumer decision making. Using data from i-Behavior, a syndicated data

aggregator firm, Kushwaha and Shankar (2013) compared profitability of multichannel and

single channel customers for two types of product categories. The database had information on

96 million customers of 750 direct marketers and the researchers randomly selected 1 million

U.S. customers. The authors feel that “such data are highly representative of the population and

allow for empirical generalizability”. In general, these types of studies deal with much larger

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sample sizes but are relatively sparse in terms of probing the ‘process’ or ‘black box’ variables

that provide richer explanation of the marketing phenomena.

Scholars who emphasize prediction more in their research have frequently built their

models and tested them on real data collected by individual firms, research companies, and trade

associations. To examine the relationship between marketing mix variables and share of

category requirements, Bhattacharya and his colleagues (1996) used two databases compiled by

IRI: Marketing Factbook which is a compilation of household-level purchasing data from a panel

of 35,000 households in twenty-seven different metropolitan markets, and InfoScan Supermarket

Review which provides distribution information on 3,878 brands sold through grocery stores.

This research also provides an example of the challenges faced in merging datasets; the authors

did not find ‘a perfect correspondence for brands and categories between the Factbook and

InfoScan”. To examine the effect of ‘windowing’ in the U.S. motion picture industry,

Mukherjee and Kadiyali (2011) built a model of substitution and seasonality and tested it with

data from Nielsen VideoScan. Because Walmart, a major retailer of DVDs, was not included in

the dataset, the authors note that it is likely that the sample “… understate(s) the importance of

larger movies and overstate(s) the importance of smaller movies” (p. 986). The effect of

Walmart’s Every Day Low Prices (EDLP) on competitive supermarkets, investigated by

Ellickson, Misra and Nair (2012) used data on the supermarket industry from two primary

sources: Trade Dimensions TDLinx panel database and Supermarkets Plus Database; the data

fields and ranges did not completely overlap.

Increasingly, data collected on the Web is becoming available for scholarly analysis. One

approach is to directly collect data available on various sites. Bizrate (www.bizrate.com), for

instance, compiles customer ratings on purchases from over one thousand stores. Instead of

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using fictitious stores rated by student respondents, Dholakia and Zhao (2010) and Posselt and

Gerstner (2005) used Bizrate data to examine the determinants of customer satisfaction and

isolate those attributes that influenced the product ordering interaction and those attributes that

influenced post-delivery experiences. To examine the effect of online reviews on the sale of

books, Chevalier and Mayzlin (2006) collected data – reviews and book characteristics - from

the public Web sites of Amazon.com and bn.com. Unable to access sales data from the

companies directly, the authors adopted several additional steps to procure data from other

sources in order to ‘approximate’ sales from ‘a random sample of 3587 books from Global

Books in Print (see www.GlobalBooksinPrint.com)’ and from ‘data on all 2818 titles that

appeared in Publishers Weekly best-seller lists (see www.publishersweekly.com)’ for a relevant

period of time. Katona, Zubcsek and Sarvary (2011) examined the diffusion process in an online

social network in an unnamed country; computational limitations restricted the number of

observations (the study had 250,000 users that generated over 13 million friendship links) and

also influenced the researchers’ assumptions about relationships among variables. In 2012, Zhu

and her colleagues (2012) published their research on online community participation and risky

financial behaviors. They investigated their research hypotheses among members of a peer-to-

peer online lending community (Prosper.com); then conducted an experiment on a German site

of eBay (www.eBay.de) that included analyzing behaviors of eBay customers for a period of

over two years in order to test whether results from Prosper.com would generalize to a different

online community.

In addition to collecting data from public websites as described above, scholars have been

also taking advantage of digital data made available by various firms such as Twitter that collect

data. Researchers can access data made available by Twitter (through its API) and access it from

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other sources as well. Tweet Scan, for instance, allows users to search public Twitter posts in

real time using either a customized search engine or Firefox's search box. Data aggregators such

as Gnip (http://pages.gnip.com/twitter-data/) claim it “offers everything the Twitter API offers,

only better” and one can get started with $500 to access tweets including historical data back to

2006 when Twitter was first established.

Bollen, Mao and Zeng (2011) analyzed tweets to predict the stock market. Specifically,

they correlate moods with daily Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) prices by focusing on

‘tweets that contain explicit statements of their author’s mood states’ and used a publicly

available software – OpinionFinder (OF) – with another mood analysis tool, Google Profile of

Mood States (GPOMS), created by the authors themselves. They find specific dimensions of

mood included in GPOMS to be more predictive than OF’s bipolar measure of moods. Even

though this analysis improves predictive accuracy, it does not provide ‘information on the

causative mechanisms that may connect public mood states with DJIA values’ (p.7).

Trends in and Challenges for Managerial Research

Marketing practitioners, faced with an entirely different set of problems, practice data

mining unevenly. The issue is rarely lack of data; more often the challenge is of finding and

analyzing relevant and timely data to generate insights that lead to superior decisions as well as

lack of expertise. In 2009, the industry consulting firm Forrester Research reported a deep chasm

that limited the use of analytics and a key constraint was ‘human resources required for

analyzing data and converting information into necessary action’ (Lovett 2009, p.2). The same

constraint was noted in 2013 by McGuire of McKinsey & Company (2013) who notes in an

interview, analytics ‘is a highly math-intensive, analytic-modeling exercise. Getting that right,

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getting the right skills and capabilities, getting people who really know how to use the latest

mathematical techniques and the latest statistical methodology to get inside that data and find the

real nuggets of gold’(p.2) is the second of three challenges faced by management.

In the current context of data explosion in terms of volume, variety, velocity and veracity,

the management of data has become an even bigger challenge. Since most of the data mining and

management practices by private companies are proprietary in nature, our knowledge is limited

to reports and white papers from consulting companies, reports in the business press, and a few

academic articles.

The first challenge is mining internally generated data. From the very early years of

organized marketing, transactional (behavioral) data is generated as part of the business process.

The ability to take advantage of such data, however, has been quite limited. In retail banking, for

instance, customers provide a lot of data in the process of creating, managing or closing an

account. It has taken some effort to pull data on a customer (across retail banking products) in

order to determine profitable product bundles that satisfy customers and build positive

relationships. O’Rourke (2012) recounts the success at Wells Fargo Bank which has beaten the

industry average and suggests that the practice can be duplicated elsewhere by ‘pulling 4-5

database reports related to product penetration, onboarding cross-sell, customer retention, and

profitability’.

The introduction of credit cards and loyalty cards has generated additional internal data

that offers marketers opportunities to glean customer insights and tailor offers to specific

segments, even specific individuals. Casinos, for instance, have very successfully offered

incentives to lure their patrons to spend more time and money (see Giles (2012) for Caesars

Entertainment example, p. 17) based on data gathered from their loyalty cards. Supermarkets and

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drugstores routinely offer coupons and other incentives based on present and past purchase

behaviors. Some companies have been successful in using Business Intelligence (BI) that is built

on mostly internal, structured data and business processes. As Mr. Loveman (CEO of Ceasars

Entertainment and a former academic) observes, the casino using loyalty cards encouraged its

customers “to share as much transactional information as possible; then we built inferential

models that predict how we could move them best from their current purchase behavior to a

more appealing pattern of purchase behavior” (Giles 2012, p. 18).

Generally, it appears that the ability to extract insights from data through meaningful

analytics is limited. In a survey of 228 database companies in the Netherlands, Verhoef and his

colleagues (2002) report limited use of data modeling. In terms of data availability, internal data

– such as purchase history, source of the customer, and the channel of purchase – is more

commonly stored than external data such as purchase behaviors at competitors or socio-

demographics or lifestyle data, which need to be purchased. The use of statistical techniques is

limited to cross-tabulations, RFM (recency, frequency, monetary) counts, and to some extent

linear regression and cluster analysis; more sophisticated modeling is positively related to

company size and size of the database. In a review of quantitative model research for direct

marketing, Bose and Chen (2009) report that while many advanced statistical and data mining

techniques are available, researchers mostly use regression analysis and ANN (artificial neural

network) modeling techniques. Similarly, Germann, Lilien and Rangaswamy (2013) note that

their survey respondents did not indicate extensive use of marketing analytics (average was 3.4

on a 7-point scale (SD=1.6), p. 122).

The addition of company websites provides browsing and clickstream data that differ in

terms of volume and velocity of internal data and pose additional challenges. Use of other

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digital strategies such as Search Engine Optimization (SEO) requires the ability to exploit digital

behaviors. Of course, many of these sites provide the tools (such as Enterprise-wide Web

Analytics offered by Google) but additional analysis is required to gain a competitive edge.

The early users of data mining techniques have been Internet-based companies – such as

Google, Amazon, Netflix, and Facebook – that collect massive amounts of data as part of their

business operations. These companies have been at the forefront of data mining practices and

have been able to not only improve their relationships with existing customers but identify new

opportunities and products. Facebook runs ‘thousands of different versions of the site at any

given moment’ (Henschen 2013) because real-time measurement has been key to coming up

with new iterations of products very quickly. Google, by analyzing flu-related search terms, has

been able to identify possible flu breaks ahead of official health statistics and Google is

attempting to promote the use of tools such as Google Flu Trends by government agencies

(Bollier 2010). But the task of mining these enormous volumes of data remains challenging

enough that even data mining leaders such as Netflix have sought external talent to develop

analytical tools in order to improve their recommendation algorithms (Shmueli 2012).

The second set of data mining challenge occurs with data from external sources such as

research commissioned by companies or research purchased from specialized research

companies. Survey, panel and scanner data, for instance, is used by consumer goods companies

such as Procter and Gamble, Johnson and Johnson, and Unilever. McKinsey & Company (2013),

the consulting giant, sees ‘real value in understanding what other data sources are available and

bringing external data into play—whether that is weather and climate data, whether that is

traffic-pattern data, whether that is competitive data—to understand what other prices are being

offered in the market’ (p. 2). Realizing such inherent value is another story. Rossi, DeLurgio and

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Kantor (2000) note the challenges faced by marketers in exploiting the benefits of scanner data:

“Most manufacturers spend a lot of money to get detailed data on product sales, but they lack the

statistical tools necessary to relate the sales numbers to promotional activities at the account

level”. No wonder that the Gartner Group estimates that ‘through 2015, 85% of Fortune 500

organizations will be unable to exploit big data for competitive advantage’ (Laney 2012, p. 2).

Merging multiple datasets collected by many different methods poses another challenge.

As Breur (2011) notes, matching datasets – acquired data such as market research data without

individual names and transactional data with names – is a complex mathematical problem but

can provide insights. When datasets generate qualitative data such as from Facebook, Twitter or

various blogs, the analytical challenges are magnified. As the use of social networking sites in

marketing strategies become common, analyzing the data generated and merging the data with

existing data is another hurdle that needs to be overcome. Qualitative data generated by

company activities such as conversations on a brand community site pose similar problems.

Because of these multiple challenges, opportunities for a variety of data mining services, both

large and small, have opened up and have also created opportunities and hurdles for scholars to

address these issues. Yahoo, for instance, just signed an agreement with DataSift to provide

insight to advertisers on what consumers are saying on the Tumblr site based on both real-time

and historical data. DataSift has similar agreements with Facebook and Twitter (Reisinger

2013).

Critical Issues

According to Calder and Tybout (1987), consumer research “seeks to produce knowledge

about consumer behavior” using whatever methods. The use of laboratory settings is supported

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because a theory can be rigorously tested by controlling internal, construct, and statistical-

conclusion validity (Calder, Phillips and Tybout 1981). As the preceding discussion on scholarly

research has shown, the trend over the years has been to conduct multiple studies, implement

field experiments, and collect data from real consumers in an effort by consumer researchers to

increase generalizability of their results and develop theories that explain real-world situations.

Scholars more interested in prediction have built models and tested them with ‘real’ data; by

emphasizing greater statistical generalizability, employing stimuli and settings that provide more

ecological validity, these researchers have more directly addressed the issue of managerial

relevance. But as Bose and Chen (2009) note, few researchers have incorporated managerial

issues such as costs into their direct marketing models or have been able to validate their models

with current data. They also note that if real data was made available, because it tends to be

large, it creates its own problems: “new concerns emerge such as computational time, software

and hardware support, appropriate explanation of results, etc.” (p. 14). As we saw in the case of

the study of diffusion process in an online social network, Katona and his colleagues (2011)

restrict the number of observations due to computational limitations.

The proliferation of data sources and the massive volumes of data will lead to even more

emphasis on quantitative models and use of behavioral data (Bose and Chen 2009; boyd and

Crawford 2012). Despite the emphasis on quantitative models, significant differences exist in

data collection, analysis and interpretation methods prevalent among marketing scholars and

those that are more popular among marketing practitioners. These differences highlight the

critical issues that are likely to govern future research by marketing scholars.

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Data for Analysis

As ecological validity is increasingly rewarded in scholarly research, it is tempting to use

data when external sources promise data from ‘real’ consumers, especially since collecting data

from ‘real’ consumers is time consuming and expensive. Such data, usually dealing with large

numbers, is not necessarily free of limitations. boyd and Crawford (2011) are critical of large

datasets because of the emphasis on quantitative modeling: “data are often reduced to what can

fit into a mathematical model” (p. 670), or according to Zwick and Dholakia (2012), consumers

are ‘constructed’ (‘manufactured’, from datasets) to match what is on offer. Bose and Chen

(2009) find that most researchers that emphasize model building do not spend much effort on

data preparation even though research has shown that data preparation methods influence data

mining techniques (Crone, Lessman and Stahlbock 2006).

Even when real data is available from companies owning or aggregating large sets of

data, access is neither universal and ‘free’ nor ‘representative’ of the relevant population. In

describing Facebook’s approach to its data, Varian of Google (in Bollier 2010) comments: “Our

basic operating procedure is to come up with an idea, build a simulation and then go out and do

the experimentation” (p. 20) and then test hundreds of variations. Only insiders have access to

this full set of data. While Twitter’s API makes tweets available for research, it is not “clear

what tweets are included in these different data streams or sampling them represents” (boyd and

Crawford 2011, p.669). Chen, Chen and Xiao (2013) have tried to show through a simulation

approach how estimating social intercorrelations is affected by the sampling method used and the

topology of the social network.

Even when marketing scholars have access to company’s internal data, they are restricted

to past data after its proprietary value has been diminished. As a result, model validation is

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limited to historical data and has lower managerial relevance: “since no data was collected after

the implementation of their dynamic multi-mailing models it was not clear how their devised

models actually influenced customers’ behaviors” (Bose and Chen, 2009, p.15). When data is

incomplete or do not completely overlap, researchers have to adopt various methods to overcome

the data limitations. In the case of missing data to calculate share-of-wallet (SOW), Chen and

Steckel (2012) tried to combine externally available data (geodemographics) at the zipcode level,

even though the credit card data is at the individual level. While their mathematical approach

proposes one solution to the missing information problem, it has many other limitations. The

authors note the “absence of time-varying covariates such as outstanding balance and credit

availability from our dataset. Having these variables would likely have improved both model fit

and predictive performance” (p.667).

Furthermore, easily accessible, seemingly ‘public’ data does not free the researchers from

considering the ethical issues in using that data: “data may be public (or semi-public) but this

does not simplistically equate with full permission being given for all uses” (boyd and Crawford,

2011, p. 673). These issues become aggravated when managerial interests in personalization,

customization and measuring the effectiveness of marketing efforts require data at the individual

level. “In real applications, it is often required to predict who the next adopters will be and not

only provide probability predictions” (Katona, Zubcsek and Sarvary 2011, p. 435). Many of

these ethical issues are ignored in scholarly research as researchers are eager to work with ‘real’

data.

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Analytical Approaches

While academic research in marketing is broader than modeling, the ultimate goal is to

answer whether a specific study or stream of research contributes to our understanding of the

consumer and the consumer-marketer interactions. This has often been referred to as the

explanation vs. prediction debate. Shmueli (2010) values predictive modeling as a scientific

endeavor because it can assess ‘the distance between theory and practice’ and notes that a larger

sample size is needed for predictive modeling than explanatory modeling. In the current context

of Big Data, it would seem this kind of argument would favor predictive and mathematical

modeling.

One of the issues raised is regarding the size of the data needed to test any hypotheses.

Varian (of Google) comments on company engineers’ temptation to use the entire dataset

because a day’s worth of data can be run in half an hour; instead, he recommends a random

sample. But as he notes, “the trick is making sure that it’s really a random sample that is

representative” (quoted in Bollier 2010, p.15). Very few academic researchers have access to the

full dataset to draw a really random sample or the ability to insist that a sample be drawn

randomly.

Another issue is regarding use of statistical vs. data mining techniques based on machine

learning. In using statistical modeling, researchers have to specify the relationships between

variables a priori. Data mining models based on machine learning, on the other hand, extract

rules from the data based on algorithms. According to Anderson of Wired magazine, the “real

challenge is not to come up with new taxonomies or models, but to sift through the data in new

ways to find meaningful correlations…. We can analyze the data without hypotheses about

what it might show. We can throw the numbers into the biggest computing clusters the world

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has ever seen and let statistical algorithms find patterns where science cannot” (quoted in Bollier

2010, p.4-5).

In this new world of ‘throw the data into the hopper and see what comes out’,

practitioners have been quite innovative in attracting global talent to detect patterns in the data.

Netflix for instance, organized a contest in 2006 to improve its recommendation system

(http://netflixprize.com) and offered a prize of one million dollars. A huge dataset of user movie

ratings was made public. An Australian company (Kaggle) has been formed to run public

competitions to analyze large datasets and such competitions have “attracted more than 3000

statisticians, computer scientists, econometrists, mathematicians and physicists from

approximately 200 universities in 100 countries” (Carpenter 2011). Development of analytical

solutions using Big Data is now open to a wide variety of disciplines dispersed across the world

and without any domain knowledge about marketing. One can even say that in an intensely

algorithmic world, machine learning and strategizing wins and conventional creative marketing

dies. Meyer (2013) notes that advice for real-word marketing problems is “as likely to be sought

from scholars in computer science, economics and psychology as marketing academics, for

whom such topics were historically their bread and butter” (p. 1). This is another challenge faced

by marketing scholars.

Theory Building and Knowledge Generation

The systematic changes in consumer research incorporating multiple data sources that

include multiple methods such as surveys, laboratory and field experiments have increased our

understanding of market behaviors as well as the underlying psychological processes. Research

by Thomas, Simon and Kadilyali (2010) provide an illustrative example. They look at how

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buyers perceive and act on real estate prices in terms of precision with which the prices are

presented. They conduct five studies that include laboratory experiments using students (Study

1-3), an online study using ‘real’ consumers who are part of Zoomerang’s panel, and analysis of

residential real estate transactions data. Liu-Thompkins and Tam (2013) were able to distinguish

attitudinal loyalty from habit and used transactional data from a convenience store chain’s

loyalty program. They conducted four studies; they were able to operationalize habit strength at

the individual level and demonstrate the impact of the two drivers (attitudinal loyalty and habit)

on repeat purchase as well as responses to promotional offers. As a result, the authors feel they

are able to contribute to both scholarly research and marketing practice.

Quantitative modeling approaches generally spend less effort on causal mechanisms for a

variety of reasons. Efforts to include demographic data in direct marketing models have provided

poorer predictions than using behavioral data alone (Bose and Chen 2009) which further

promotes the development and use of better and more predictive analytical techniques. In

advocating the use of Behavioral Analytics, Montibeller and Durbach (2013) emphasize its

“prescriptive, action-orientated analysis, aimed at improving individual and organizational

decision making” (p. 16). Academic research that improves predictions – even if it fails to show

the causal mechanisms – would not necessarily be a disadvantage to practitioners, with their

emphasis on prediction.

Scholarly research in marketing has made great strides from its early focus on developing

tools and techniques to generating knowledge and understanding but the availability of Big Data

and its emphasis on predictive modeling is putting pressures on these developments. This

highlights the differences within the scholarly community as well as the distance between

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academia and practice. There are additional considerations that affect these differences in goals

and approaches.

First, within the scholarly community itself, there are some fundamental differences in

approaches to generating market insights. Cayla and Arnould (2013) advocate ethnographic

stories as an explanatory (not exploratory) approach to ‘unpack and comprehend more abstract

forms of market knowledge’ (p.9) and to complement other research approaches. Their

interviews with commercial ethnographers indicate that this approach can ‘flesh out the

multidimensionality of consumer lives’ and create understanding of market complexity. This

approach is, of course, based on small rather than large sample sizes and goes against Big Data

and data mining techniques. It also goes against the conventional consumer research approach

based on laboratory and field experiments.

Second, despite efforts to improve predictability of market behaviors and the availability

of large sets of data, marketing practitioners face problems calculating the return on their

investment (ROI); the availability of large datasets has not made it any easier because they lack

‘an integrated system to manage the necessary data’ (Marketingcharts.com 2013). As Devlin

(2012) notes, “integration of data from a variety of sources, both traditional and new, with

multiple tools, is the first prerequisite. A well-integrated process around all data, both big and

small, is a further necessity to extract business value from information” (p.4). Davenport and

Patil (2012) recognize the complexity of the challenge and see the value of the data scientists

‘who make discoveries while swimming in data’. It is clear, however, no single discipline is

sufficient to address the challenges. Devlin (2012) suggests a team approach that includes “one

from the business, one who understands analytics and likes to play detective, and an IT expert

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from the BI team, who can access data from the EDW and integrate it into the new big data

technologies” (p. 9).

Where does the role of marketing academic lie in this partnership? We noted some of the

issues concerned with access to internal data for scholarly purposes. It is not common practice

for organizations to share insights about proprietary research and these insights are closely

guarded. When academics operate as consultants, there are restrictions on public sharing of

knowledge gained from their experiences. The barriers grow when the pressure is to generate

‘now’ knowledge such as real time forecasting of consumption and these pressures conflict with

traditional academic focus on data quality and other methodological issues. This has been

emphasized by boyd and Crawford (2012): “Just because Big Data presents us with large

quantities of data does not mean that methodological issues are no longer relevant.

Understanding sample, for example, is more important now than ever” (p.668).

Concluding Observations

Information technologies – Internet, mobile communications, electronic commerce,

social media, geographical positioning systems, and more – are reshaping markets and marketing

in fundamental ways. Just by leading their day-to-day lives, consumers leave a massive trail of

data points, every day and often every minute. Soon, the ‘Internet of things’ will generate data in

terms of volume and velocity that will tax the ability of companies and scholars to process such

data. The challenges of dealing with Big Data - to understand, to explain, and to predict the

behavior of consumers from millions of data points – will be magnified.

These challenges exist at various levels. Business practitioners want ways to deal with the

data deluge so that they can devise competitively superior ways to approach and influence

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consumers. Research firms seek methods – based on statistics, artificial intelligence, machine

learning, neural networks, algorithms, indeed based on ‘whatever works’ – to uncover patterns

lurking in the tsunami of Big Data. Academic researchers, especially in marketing, struggle to

balance the needs of in-depth understanding, causal explanation, and predictive accuracy; and

these competing epistemic demands are fragmenting the academic research fields and often

creating end-runs around well established academic research traditions, replacing decades long

research programs with clever algorithmic devices or machine learning methods that “work” (in

predictive terms) without achieving understanding or explanation.

In the near future, the challenges of Big Data will be met by a variety of expedient

methods, but over a longer term, the need for in-depth understanding and explanation will

reassert itself. This is because consumers are humans and they are not quite programmable – they

change, adapt, stray, experiment, shift gears, get bored, contradict themselves, and more. For the

academic research enterprise in marketing, the challenge thus is not to keep sticking to

traditional ways of researching but to seek new ways to collaborate with multiple science-based

fields such as computer science, biotechnology, and neuroscience; as well as with other

knowledge fields such as cultural anthropology, philosophy, and the arts. It is only through such

collaborations that we would achieve fuller understandings of how people, products and

processes interact with one another.

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Our responsibility is to provide strong academic programs that instill excellence,confidence and strong leadership skills in our graduates. Our aim is to (1)promote critical and independent thinking, (2) foster personal responsibility and(3) develop students whose performance and commitment mark them as leaderscontributing to the business community and society. The College will serve as acenter for business scholarship, creative research and outreach activities to thecitizens and institutions of the State of Rhode Island as well as the regional,national and international communities.

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The creation of this working paper serieshas been funded by an endowmentestablished by William A. Orme, URICollege of Business Administration,Class of 1949 and former head of theGeneral Electric Foundation. This workingpaper series is intended to permit facultymembers to obtain feedback on researchactivities before the research is submitted toacademic and professional journals andprofessional associations for presentations.

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Founded in 1892, the University of Rhode Island is one of eight land, urban, and sea grantuniversities in the United States. The 1,200-acre rural campus is lessthan ten miles from Narragansett Bay and highlights its traditions ofnatural resource, marine and urban related research. There are over14,000 undergraduate and graduate students enrolled in seven degree-granting colleges representing 48 states and the District of Columbia.More than 500 international students represent 59 different countries.Eighteen percent of the freshman class graduated in the top ten percentof their high school classes. The teaching and research faculty numbersover 600 and the University offers 101 undergraduate programs and 86advanced degree programs. URI students have received Rhodes,

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The University of Rhode Island started to offer undergraduate businessadministration courses in 1923. In 1962, the MBA program was introduced and the PhDprogram began in the mid 1980s. The College of Business Administration is accredited byThe AACSB International - The Association to Advance Collegiate Schools of Business in1969. The College of Business enrolls over 1400 undergraduate students and more than 300graduate students.

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