Will Future Water Professionals Sink under Received Wisdom, or

Swim to a New Paradigm?Douglas J Merrey

World Water Day 2008: The Water Professional of Tomorrow, 12th NETHCID Symposium,

Wageningen University

Question of the Day for Water Professionals

Will we use our skills and opportunities simply to re-confirm and further consolidate, through tinkering, old paradigms of thinking and acting?

Or will we throw off the shackles on our minds, ask new questions, and thereby create new paradigms for a better world?

(And will we train our future students to overthrow our own sacred paradigms?)

Outline

1. Investing in “Water Security” as a necessary condition for rapid economic development

2. Assess three assumptions underlying the Water Security Argument

A. Its necessity: the “minimum platform”B. Large-scale water infrastructure is necessary to achieve water

security Alternatives ignored: the case of agricultural water

management in sub-Saharan AfricaC. Faith in “stakeholder consultation” to ensure equity and

environmental sustainability

3. A political economic perspective on water investments4. Conclusions: Priorities for the Water Professionals of

tomorrow—research and action

1. The Water Security Case “Sink or Swim? Water security for growth and

development,” David Grey and Claudia Sadoff, Water Policy 2007 Excellent article making the case for renewed investments on

water infrastructure, especially in Africa Draw on their argument, as it represents an increasingly

dominant view in development banks Though I am questioning some of their assumptions, I respect

their having moved the Bank from a low-risk no-action stance Freely using Dr Grey’s slides with thanks

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) focus—my current interest; greatest infrastructure gap; and likely big investments in future

African Infrastructure Gap

Until recently investments in infrastructure declining

Huge gap by all possible measuresHalf population no sanitationLower road density than India in 1950Schools, hospitals, communicationsOnly a few countries e.g., South Africa, can

invest enough to reduce gap quicklySome slides from Dr. Grey

Infrastructure gap: Access to electricity

184

85

21

126

55 38 29

204

114

581

900

430

2108

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000C

amer

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eria

Eth

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ia

Uga

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ypt

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occo

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500 kWh/capita/year minimum consumption for reasonable quality of life

Energy use per person in Africa

United States consumption – 12000kWh/capita/yr

Africa

EuropeN America

S AmericaAsia (incl.

China)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Hydropower Potential Tapped

The infrastructure gap: Hydropower

43746

1,287 1,406

2,4863,255

4,729

6,150

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Eth

iopi

a

So

uth

Afr

ica

Th

aila

nd

Lao

s

Ch

ina

Bra

zil

Au

stra

lia

No

rth

Am

eri

ca

Water storage per person (m3)

Country Additional Storage

needed per person

(m3)

Storage investments required per

person(US$)

Storage Investments

Required(US$ Billion)

Period needed at 5% current GDP investment per year (no pop.

inc.)(Years)

Lesotho 751 939 1.7 44

Namibia 542 678 1.3 8

Nigeria 402 503 67.3 32

Ethiopia 555 694 46.2 144

Kenya 307 384 12.1 24

Tanzania 610 763 27.4 60

Uganda 511 639 17.9 58

Burkina Faso

152 190 2.5 22

Senegal 683 854 9.9 40

Algeria 239 299 9.8 4

Morocco 128 160 5.1 4

‘Water security’: Investment gap

Devastating Impacts of Variable and Uncertain Rainfall

Worsened by Lack of Storage and Inadequate institutional and infrastructural Capacity to Manage

Impacts of Floods and Droughts

Variability - Annual rainfall in Kenya during 1956 – 1982

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

19

79

19

80

19

81

19

82

19

83

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

Years

Rea

l G

DP

gro

wth

(%

)

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

Var

iab

ilit

y in

Rai

nfa

ll (

Met

er)

Real GDP grow th (%)

Variability in Rainfall (Meter)

Correlation between GDP and Rainfall in Zimbabwe

2000 & 2001 winters: extreme

flooding in Mozambique

Mozambique’s 2000 floods

-23%

+44%

“Water Security”

Definition: ‘Acceptable’ quantity and quality of water for life and ecosystems with ‘acceptable’ level of water-related risks

Necessary condition for economic growthWealthy countries ‘harnessed hydrology’—most in

easy conditionsPoor countries faced with “difficult hydrology”

“direct consequence” – Have not achieved water security Some “hampered by hydrology” Some even worse off—”hostage to hydrology”

Bleak prognosis unless huge investments made to achieve “minimum platform” of water security

Poverty and Hydrology—Grey and Sadoff

2. Three assumptions

A. Water security as necessary condition for economic growth

B. Achieving water security requires large-scale water infrastructure

C. High level of faith that “stakeholder consultation” will ensure equity and environmental sustainability

A. Water security as necessary condition for economic growth

Use “stories,” e.g., TVA in USA, Murray-Darling in Australia, hydroelectric in western Europe to make positive case Imply these were critical pre-requisites to national growth – but

no evidence given Admit but minimize social and environmental costs No questions asked on longer-term sustainability

Contested argument that increasingly resonates in other “over-developed” areas in Asia, Mexico, USA

Question not asked: Were there alternative investments to achieve development goals? Public presentations—say “there is no alternative”

Need critical in-depth studies and use these studies as basis for developing more useful scenario and

decision-support tools

B. Achieving water security requires large-scale water infrastructure

“Infrastructure” includes institutions necessary to build and manage it

Where hydrology “difficult” failure to invest in water security “deeper hole”

In this situation, initial returns to large water infrastructure will be low in conventional termsGrowing investments higher returns over time until

minimum platform, then balance of management-infrastructural investment returns shift

Achieving water security requires large-scale water infrastructure

Are there no alternatives? If so, why are they not considered? What is needed in terms of knowledge,

skills, public action to stimulate and contribute to such debates?

The Case of Agricultural Water Management (AWM) Investments in

SSA

The “Consensus” View

Low level of irrigation in SSA Massive irrigation investments key to Asian

“Green Revolution” Therefore, massive irrigation investments are

needed in SSA Comprehensive Africa Agricultural Development

Program (CAADP), and Commission for Africa (“Blair Report”) Both argue for doubling irrigated area by 2015

Are the “solutions” of yesterday and Asia applicable to the future and to SSA?

The Figures on irrigated Area

Irrigated Land (% of Crop Land)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

South Asia Middle East &North Africa

East Asia &Pacif ic

Latin America &Caribbean

Sub-SaharanAfrica

Some counter-arguments Most staple food is not irrigated in SSA

Improving rainfed agriculture may have higher payoffs to reduce poverty (Comprehensive Assessment)

Insufficient surface water available Financial and human resources insufficient

High cost, though often SSA costs are exaggerated Long gestation period for formal irrigation Wide range of low-cost individualized AWM

technologies available and proven successfulPer Euro invested, more beneficiaries, food security,

income, achievable in short time, with better opportunity to target

Why is there strong resistance to supporting policies and programs for

micro-AWM & rain fed?• Growing evidence of

benefits• Benefits accrue quickly• Synergies with

infrastructure projects• Development banks,

governments pay lip service to rainfed and small technologies

WHY?

Treadle Pumps--Types

ZAMBIA

ZAMBIA

KENYA

S. AFRICA

SWAZI-

LAND

INDIA

C. Faith in “Stakeholder Consultation”

International consensus view this will lead to equitable and harmonious “IWRM”o Social and environmental costs can be reduced using

local knowledge and consultationIs this realistic?

Most citizens poor, not organized, lack informationUp against power vested interests supported by

government officialsEven South Africa, best example of a country

that is committed and trying—disappointing results

Will ‘stakeholder consultation’ be added to the long list of failed water reforms?

Radical reforms needed for effective empowerment of stakeholders—rare

Need large-scale comparative studies on approaches to identifying drivers for success

Need radical change in training of water professionalsEven M.Sc. courses in “IWRM” rarely provide real

training in building coalitions and working with stakeholders

3. Political Economy of Water Investments

Why do development banks, governments continued to emphasize need for large-scale infrastructure investments nearly exclusively with little attention to water options that may benefit more people more quickly at lower costs?

Why do they continue to pay lip service to ‘stakeholder consultation’ but avoid creating the political conditions necessary for it to work?

Political Economy of Water Investments

Political economy of water investment decisions is a knowledge gapWageningen University a leader in

researching politics of irrigation schemes and now river basin management

Rhetoric: banks support country-driven projects—reality quite different and complex

IIMI Dutch associate expert examined this in 2 Sri Lankan irrigation schemes funded by ADB 20 years ago

Political Economy of Water Investments

Sri Lanka case: ADB & its consultants drove projects Imposed design and operational standards Never accepted by Irrigation Dept. No ownership—”No one cared” Bank but not government reacted very negatively to Nijman’s

drafts Development banks-consultants-

governments-”beneficiaries” nexus: complex and not understood Fertile ground for research Development bank staff may do excellent technical studies but

work within their own institutional paradigms Universities better placed to do this than international

organizations

4. Conclusions: Research and Action Priorities for Tomorrow’s Water

ProfessionalGrand opportunities to make a different in Africa African professionals—special responsibility & commitment Others can work as partners, learning and contributing together,

and influencing governments and policy shapers globally

Water is political: Powerful vested interests maximize benefits. In this context how can we knowledge producers

and processors play a more active and decisive role?

Conclude with a few questions to open a wider discussion at this Conference

Research and Action Priorities for Tomorrow’s Water Professional

Is “water security” a pre-requisite for development?

Is large-scale infrastructure the only road to water securityWho are its real beneficiaries in developing

countriesWhat constellation of interests and driving

forces lead to favoring large-scale infrastructure over alternatives?

Applies to development banks, governments

Research and Action Priorities for Tomorrow’s Water Professional

Are there alternative investment roads?How can the policy space be widened to consider

alternative options?How can coalitions be mobilized nationally and

internationally to support alternatives?

What strategies and reforms can empower poor stakeholders to participate effectively in investment decisions?How can governments and international agencies

foster this? Or are they indeed part of the problem?

Research and Action Priorities for Tomorrow’s Water Professional

What indeed are the proper roles for knowledge producers and processors and how can our effectiveness be enhanced?

To inform research and actions socially as well as technically, a new kind of water professional will

be needed in future

Much to do, little time

Will the water professionals of tomorrow work within and therefore sink under old

paradigms?

Or will we swim to new paradigms and thereby a better world in future?

Our real clients

More clients

Thank you!