Wildfire Smoke Forecasting

NC-DAQ7/13/2011

Photo credit: Rob Shackleford, NCDFR

The DAQ Air Quality Forecast TeamNick WitcraftChris MisenisElliot TardifCassie Mentha

Why bother forecasting big smoke plumes?

• Smoke from wildfires contains a very large amount of fine particulate matter (also known as PM), which is very unhealthy to breathe, and also smells really bad.

• Remember when smoke settled over the Raleigh area a few weeks ago?

• It’s important to tell where the wildfire smoke is going to go, and about how much of it there will be.

So how can we tell where the smoke plume is now, and what are the

concentrations?

Visible satellite imagery

MODIS Satellite Imagery

http://ge.ssec.wisc.edu/modis-today/images/terra/true_color/2011_05_24_144/t1.11144.USA8.143.1000m.jpg

July 4, 2011

Pains Bay burn scar on MODIS

Monitoring stations can tell us where the smoke plume is by how high the PM concentrations are.

June 21, 2011 – Smoke from Pender fire reaches Raleigh

Special monitoring stations are set up around the fire to aid in tracking and forecasting smoke plumes

Stumpy Point, NC – May 31, 2011

We can get an idea of where the plume is going, and how dense the

plume is, based on surface observation and visibility

information.

Visibility Guide

• We also get an idea of how much smoke there is based on reports from officials on the ground who are fighting the fire.

• More smoke means more particle pollution over a greater area.

Photo Credit: Donnie Harris, USFWS

Where is the plume heading? Based on the forecast winds.

HYSPLIT

•Use HYSPLIT model to generate forecast plumes

•Along with predicted winds, gives an idea of where smoke will head

• We put all of this information together to issue special Air Quality Alerts to areas that may be affected by the smoke.

• These Air Quality Alerts are carried to the public by the news media, the National Weather Service, and NCDAQ press releases.

The End