WILDERNESS IN CONTEMPORARY AMERICA Eighth Annual

Ecotourism in Alaska ConferenceFebruary 26-28, 2001

Ken CordellSenior ScientistForest Service ResearchAthens, GA

www.srs.fs.fed.us/trendskcordell@fs.fed.us Graphics by Shela Mou

Public Views on Wilderness

• Nationally about 1/2 of American’s 16+ report knowing about the NWPS

• Only 4.4% feel we have put too many acres into the NWPS:

- Not enough, 52.6%

- About right, 26.9%

- Too much, 4.4%

- Not sure, 15.4%

1960s:Flower Children, VW Camper Vans, The Beatles, Vietnam, Kennedy, Family Vacations, Chevy

Impala V8

2001:INTERNET, STOCKS,

HONDA SUVs, BUSH/ANWR, WEALTH, INTERSTATES, JOBS,

GROWTH, ADVENTURE RECREATION,

MERGERS

Demographic Trend Percentages: 1960 and 2000

1960 2000Family Income (1998$) (Note: 45.54 million U.S. families in 1960. 71.55 million families in 1998.)

Percentiles 20th 14,093 21,600 40th 24,298 37,692 60th 32,215 56,020 80th 44,547 83,693 95th 68,521 145,199Educational Attainment, Age 25 and Over 8th grade or less 37.5 7.4 9-11th grade 18.5

9.7 High school graduate 27.1 33.8 Some college 9.1

24.7 College degree or higher 7.7

24.4

0

20

40

60

80

100

1960

1965

1982-83

1994-95

1999-2000

Long-Term Trends - Land

1325.8

60.263.3

11.717.2 16.9

16.2 1318.7

38.9

58.5

20.9 2322.620.6

10 18 32 32 40 9 12 9 8 10 10 13 21 29 31 16 16 12 10 11Percent

86.9

22.4

68.9

24.8

(131 million)

(144 million, 10% more)

(188 million, 44% more)

(216 million, 65% more)

(220 million, 68% more)

(12 or older)

The Changing American SocietyThe Changing American Society About 1 million new immigrants per year More people: 1990 248 mm

2000 275 mm2020 325 mm2050 404 mm2075 481 mm2100 571 mm

Getting older: Median age 3538 (by 2020) Changing ethnicities by 2050:

Anglo Americans 76%50%

African Americans 12% 15%

Hispanic Americans 9% 21%Asian Americans 4%

11%

THE FUTURE

RECREATION,

LIFESTYLES,

NSRE 2000NSRE 2000• A sample of over 50,000 households, from the Keys to

ANWR• Includes individuals 16 years or older• Ties back to the first National Recreation Survey,

Outdoor Recreation Resources Review Commission in 1960

• Is the Nation’s on-going recreation survey, the 8th• Interagency sponsorship—USFS, NOAA, ERS, EPA,

NPS, BLM.• Others involved, National Scenic Byways Program,

Heritage, Wilderness, Bicycle Safety, The Heinz Center• State of the Art delivery—Internet, books and reports

VVaarriieedd LLiiffeessttyylleessVVaarriieedd LLiiffeessttyylleess

Activity

Percent Participating Regularly

North SouthGreat Plains

Rocky Mtns

Pacific Coast

Belong to environmental group

7.3 9.0 8.6 8.9 8.0

Run own business 14.5 17.5 15.4 23.6 21.0

Have a vacation home

15.1 15.1 11.3 15.3 15.5

Commute >45 minutes

16.1 16.6 12.6 11.8 14.9

Youth volunteer 19.9 20.4 20.2 19.8 17.3

Playing stock market

24.2 23.0 20.1 20.4 21.8

Read nature magazines

25.1 27.1 27.6 23.6 26.1

Collecting things 26.1 29.8 26.7 24.3 25.6

Creative arts 27.2 23.9 23.9 25.6 29.0

VVaarriieedd LLiiffeessttyylleessVVaarriieedd LLiiffeessttyylleess

Activity

Percent Participating Regularly

North SouthGreat Plains

Rocky Mtns

Pacific Coast

Crafts 27.2 27.3 27.8 32.3 30.4

Grow a garden 32.8 30.6 34.5 30.4 33.6

Eat out 37.9 50.6 43.0 44.7 44.6

Exercise 40.6 41.2 39.4 45.4 46.7

Follow sports 44.3 48.9 43.5 43.5 45.3

Raise kids 44.6 47.0 46.2 42.2 44.3

Attend church 46.5 57.3 49.7 44.1 36.0

Use computer at home

56.0 51.8 50.5 55.6 58.7

Care for pets 56.7 59.5 60.3 62.0 60.3

Recycle 75.9 52.4 64.7 54.3 77.1

Cook at home 79.9 76.9 80.4 84.0 84.5

Activities Rising FastestBy Percentage (1982 to 2000)

% GrowthNo. in 2000Bird watching 235.9 71.2Hiking 195.9 73.1Backpacking 165.9 23.4Snow-mobiling 107.5 66.9Walking 91.2 179.0Off-road driving 89.2 27.9Primitive camping 81.9 32.2Developed camping 76.0 52.8Downhill skiing 66.9 17.7Swimming/river, lake or ocean 64.4 78.1

% GrowthNo. in 2000Motor boating 52.9 51.4Cross-country skiing 50.9 8.0Bicycling 48.5 83.9Sightseeing 40.2 114.0Picnicking 37.5 116.6Horseback riding 35.9 21.6Fishing 20.6 72.5Hunting 12.7 23.9Outdoor team sports 10.6 46.9Water skiing 9.4 17.4Sailing -0.9 10.5

Activities Rising Slower By Percentage (1982 to 2000)

Activities Adding the Most Participants 16 or older, 1982-2001

MillionsGrowth No. in 2000

Walking 85.4 179.0Bird watching 50.0 71.2Hiking 48.4 73.1Swimming/river, lake, or ocean 36.4 92.9Sightseeing 32.7 114.0Picnicking 31.8 116.6Bicycling 27.4 83.9Developed camping 22.8 52.8Motor boating 17.8 51.4Off-road driving 17.3 36.7Backpacking 14.6 23.4

AmericansAmericans

AREARE

AnAn

Environmental Environmental GroupGroup

Reducing Crime 2923Reforming Health Care 2222Saving Social Security 2121Protecting the Environment 1623Reducing the Public Debt 910 Don’t Know 3 1

FirstSecondChoiceChoice

“They (American’s surveyed) rank the environment third on their list of critical public issues requiring government support,

just behind crime and education. 60% feel the government spends too little on the environment”.

(National Opinion Research Center, Chicago, Ill., 2000)

Source: Dujack, 1997.

Percentage of AmericansReporting Regulation of Natural Resources is “Just the Right Amount” or has “Not Gone Far Enough.”

Too Much 7%

Too Little49%

About Right 28%

(Don’t Know)(15%)

Public Thoughts on Public

Lands

Objectives for Managing Public Lands(Percent saying important to very important)

Expanding access for motorized vehicles (20%)

Developing trail systems for non-motorized rec. (57%)

Developing trail systems for motorized uses

(29%)

Developing paved roads for cars

(19%)

Conserving/protecting sources of water (91%)

Designating more wilderness areas

(58%)Preserving

resources through policies (75%)

Protecting ecosystems/

habitats (86%)

Preserving wilderness experience (74%)

Expanding commercial recreation (28%) Informing public on

potential environmental impacts (81%)

Increasing acres in public land (53%)

Source: NSRE/Shields VOBA Module

Providing resources to

help local communities

(51%)

Public Land Management Objectives MOST Desired by the Public

Conserve and protect natural sources of water (91.4%) Better information for users, such as respect for wildlife and trail etiquette (87.2%) Protect natural ecosystems and wildlife habitats (86.0%) More use of volunteers for resource protection and improvement (85.6%) Better information for users about use impacts (81.1%) Consistent policy for guiding resource uses and management (76.0%)

COMPARING IMPORTANCE OF PUBLIC LAND OBJECTIVES BETWEEN ETHNIC GROUPS

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

WhiteBlackNativeHispanicAsian

Conserving/Protecting sources of water

Designating more wilderness areas

Trail systems for non-motorized recreation

Expanding access for motorized vehicles

WILDERNESS ATTITUDES AND

VALUES

Wilderness Protection for Remaining Wild Portions of the Nation’s Ecosystems

Fish & W ildlife Service WildernessNational Park Service WildernessBureau of Land Management W ildernessNational Forest W ilderness

Bailey's EcoregionsWarm ContinentalHot ContinentalSubtropical MarinePrairieMediterraneanTropical/Subtropical SteppeTropical/Subtropical DesertTemperate SteppeTemperate DesertSavannaNA

What Americans Value About WildernessPercentage Saying It Is

Slightly or Not

Important

Extremely ImportantWilderness Value

Protecting air quality 58.41.5

Protecting water quality 55.91.5

Protecting wildlife habitat 52.7 3.1Protecting endangered species 49.8

5.0Legacy for future generations 49.1

3.1Preserving unique ecosystems and genetics 44.3

5.1Future option to visit 37.5 7.1Just knowing it is preserved 36.9 6.4Providing scenic beauty 35.4

5.5Providing recreation opportunities 27.8 7.2Providing spiritual inspiration 25.9 16.7Undisturbed area for scientific study 23.9 11.6Providing income for tourism industry 9.7 33.5

Protecting air quality Protecting water quality Protecting wildlife habitat Protecting T&E species Legacy for future generations (By Majority Vote)

Lowest 4 Values

• Providing recreation opportunities

• Providing spiritual inspiration

• Using areas for scientific study

• Stimulate income for tourism industry

(All Ballots Counted)

OverflightsBanned 17%

Limited 70%Not Banned or Limited 11%

Don’t Know 2%Snowmobile

sBanned 34%Limited 55%

Not Banned or Limited 9%Don’t Know 2%Source: Haas, 1998.

Should designate more Wilderness

within Federal lands

Important/Very

ImportantWhite 59%Black 49%Hispanic 56%Asian 75%

Should designate more Wilderness

within Federal lands

Important/Very

ImportantUrban 62%Suburban 56%Rural 47%

Segmenting theAmerican Public

Education, outreach, involvement – “Does one Size Fit All?”

Outdoor Recreation Is a Path to Different Segments

Eight Groups, Eight Lifestyles

YoungNew EnglandWind Surfers

YoungOutdoor Lads

Golden YearsSeniors

The UrbanBeach Boys

The NoreasterMusclers

Back toNature Boomers

Middle AmericaHunt-N-FishMen’s Club

The Gen-XSki Equals

The Urban Beach Boys (4.4%) Diving, Surfing, Snorkeling, Kayaking, Sailing,

Saltwater Fishing, and Jet Skiing

Active in a lot of activities, except hunting and fresh water fishing

Two-thirds white, Asian/Pacific Islanders well represented, under 35, but not foreign born

South Atlantic and Pacific Coast

Regularly like to go to movies, use internet at home, participate in environmental groups, invest, and attend classes

Strongly advocate wilderness preservation

More strongly believe than most Americans that humans are abusing the earth, on a course for ecological catastrophe and the balance of nature is delicate

The Golden Years Seniors (45.8%)

Not very active in outdoor activities, except for a bit of walking, picnicking, family gatherings, and sightseeing

Almost 60% female, blacks and Hispanic well represented, over 45, especially over 65, mostly urban

Regularly attend religious services, eat out, cook at home, and especially spend time with grandchildren

Not much aware of NWPS, show more support for using wilderness for recreation, tourism promotion, and science

More strongly believe human ingenuity will insure the earth, Humans can modify the environment to meet needs, Humans were meant to rule over nature, Humans can control nature, and the environmental crisis is exaggerated

Backpacking, camping, visiting wilderness, gathering mushrooms/berries, trout fishing, hiking, viewing/learning, mountain biking

Not into hunting, surfing, motorized activities or snow sports

More females than males, white and Hispanic, middle aged, proportionate urban/rural

Mountain West and Pacific Coast well represented

Read environmental magazines, youth volunteering, donate to charities

Aware of the NWPS, cross-section of American’s values regarding wilderness

Believe humans are abusing the earth, the balance is delicate, and we are on a course for catastrophe

Back to Nature Boomers (25.8%)

Middle America Hunt-n-Fish Men’s Club (6.1%) Hunt, fish, motorized, camp, motorboat, canoe

Don’t participate in beach activities

Predominantly male, white, under 40, U.S. citizen, rural, Prairie and Southern

Belong to conservation group, read nature magazines, own a business, have pets, woodworking, and home improvements

More utilitarian than rest of public

More strongly believe human ingenuity will insure the earth, humans were meant to rule over the earth, and environmental crisis is exaggerated

Public Views on WildernessAlmost 80 percent feel we have put about the right amount or not enough public acres into the NWPS:

- Not enough, 52.6%

- About right, 26.9%

- Too much, 4.4%

- Not sure, 15.4%

WILDERNESS IN CONTEMPORARY AMERICA Eighth Annual

Ecotourism in Alaska ConferenceFebruary 26-28, 2001

Ken CordellSenior ScientistForest Service ResearchAthens, GA

www.srs.fs.fed.us/trendskcordell@fs.fed.us Graphics by Shela Mou