Why we need a standardized internationally accepted resource classification system

for primary and secondary resources ---- opportunities and challenges.

Prof. Dr.-Ing. Dr. h.c. mult. Friedrich-W. Wellmer

retired President of the Federal Institute of Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR),

the Federal German Geological Survey, Hannover/Germany and

retired President of the Academy of Geosciences and Geotechnology.

Rohstoffentnahme - seit 1900 bis heute

Quelle: Krausmann et al. (2009): Growth in global materials use, GDP and population during the 20th century,

Ecological Economics Vol. 68, Nr. 10, 2696-2705, Version 1.2 (August 2011).

www.uni-klu.ac.at/socec/inhalt/3133.htm

Weltbevölkerung - Entwicklung seit 1850 und Prognosen bis 2100

Quelle: D. Lam: Presentation Herrenhausen-Symp. 28.+ 29.11.2012:

"Already beyond? 40 years' limits to growth" , Hannover, VW Foundation.

(Source: Mew, M.C., Steiner, G., Geissler, B. Sustainability 2018, 10,1087)

Quelle: D. Ameling, Erzmetall, 53 (2000), Nr. 10, S. 598.

Entwicklung der Hochofenleistung 1861 bis 1993

Nutzinhalt:

Erzeugung:

August-Thyssen-Hütte

Duisburg

1960

1424 m³

2000 t / Tag

27,9

m

9 m

Thyssen Krupp Stahl AG

Duisburg, Schwelgern 2

1993

4769 m³

11900 t / Tag

14,9m

32,8

m

610 m³

400 t / Tag

Gutehoffnungshütte

Oberhausen

1910

4,2 m

23 m

Johannishütte

Duisburg

1861

0,9 m

15,3

m

64 m³

25 t / Tag

Production (Mio t Cu in ore mined)

2016: 20.343 mio t

1995: 9.985 mio t

1996: 10.949 mio t.

(Source: Arndt, N. et al. (2017): Future Global Mineral Resources. Geochemical Perspectives 6,1, p.1-171)

(Source: Wellmer, F.-W. et al. :

Raw Materials for Future Energy

Supply, Heidelberg, Berlin, New York

(Springer) in print.)

(Source: Wellmer, F.-W. et al. :

Raw Materials for Future Energy

Supply, Heidelberg, Berlin, New York

(Springer) in print.)

(Source: EC: Report on Critical Raw Materials and the Circular Economy, 16.1 2018-SWD (2018) 36 final)

(Source: Arndt, N. et al. (2017): Future Global Mineral Resources. Geochemical Perspectives 6,1, p.1-171)

(Source: Arndt, N. et al. (2017): Future Global Mineral Resources. Geochemical Perspectives 6,1, p.1-171)

Three aspects, discussed as „early warning indicators“:

1.) Ratio: reserves/consumption (wrongly called lifetime of reserves )

2.) For by-products: statistical distribution

3.) Peak commodity

Three aspects, discussed as „early warning indicators“:

1.) Ratio: reserves/consumption (wrongly called lifetime of reserves )

2.) For by-products: statistical distribution

3.) Peak commodity

So far only discussed for primary resources, but secondary resources

have to be included, too.

(Source: Frenzel et al. (2017), Resources Policy 52, p.327)

Plateau-phase

Pro

du

ction

Time

dmp = depletion midpoint

Life cycle curve „Hubbert-Curve“

(Source: Wellmer, F.-W. et al. :

Raw Materials for Future Energy

Supply, Heidelberg, Berlin,

New York (Springer) in print.)

(Quelle: Wellmer,F.-W.: Wie lange reichen unsere Rohstoffvorräte?– Was sind

Reserven und Ressourcen. Umweltwirtschaftsforum 22 (2014), s. 125-132)

Three aspects, discussed as „early warning indicators“:

1.) Ratio: reserves/consumption (wrongly called lifetime of reserves )

2.) For by-products: statistical distribution

3.) Peak commodity

Three aspects, discussed as „early warning indicators“:

1.) Ratio: reserves/consumption (wrongly called lifetime of reserves )

2.) For by-products: statistical distribution

3.) Peak commodity

The Growing of Reserves –

Example: Copper

35.4

37.4

Ratio

720 Mio t20.342 Mio t2016

195 Mio t5.219 Mio t1966

reserveproduction

Reserves

(Mio t Cu in

ore)

Production

(Mio t Cu in

ore)

The Growing of Reserves –

Example: Copper

35.4

37.4

Ratio

720 Mio t20.342 Mio t2016

195 Mio t5.219 Mio t1966

reserveproduction

Reserves

(Mio t Cu in

ore)

Production

(Mio t Cu in

ore)

Accumulated production 1966-2016 = 50 years: 554 Mio t

i.e. nearly 3x reserves 1966 !!!

Mine production Data sources: USGS, BGR database, 2009

*Before 1988, the USGS only classified

reserve base

Static life time of reserve base*

Static life time of reserves

Static life time – the reality

0,4

0,8

1,2

1,6

20

60

100

140

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Mio

. t

yea

rs

Nickel

1960: 0.34 Mio. t

2008:

1.5 Mio. t

1987: 63 years 2008: 46 years

10

30

50

70

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

100

300

500

yea

rs1

.00

0 t Cobalt

1960: 14.734 t

2008: 63,783 t

1988: 125 years 2008: 111 years

4

8

12

16

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

20

40

60

80

1987: 39 years2008: 36 years

2008:

14.4 Mio. t

1960: 4.2 Mio. t

Copper

Mio

. t

yea

rs

Ratio Reserves /Production (Consumption 2016 (USGS-Data)

Aluminium (Bauxite) 107 Manganese 43

Coal 114 Nickel 35

Chromium 16 Phosphate 261

Cobalt 57 Potassium 110

Copper 37 Silver 21

Gold 18 Tin 17

Iron Ore 76 Tungsten 36

Lead 18 Zinc 18

%

100

75

50

25

86 %

Au 79 %

Ag

84 %

Cu 71 %

Zn

73 %

Pb

Metal Content of 10 % of Largest Deposits

Metal Contents

Perc

en

t in

Dep

osit

s L

arg

er

than

X-A

xis

Singer, D.A. (1995)

Ratio Reserves /Production (Consumption 2016 (USGS-Data)

Aluminium (Bauxite) 107 Manganese 43

Coal 114 Nickel 35

Chromium 16 Phosphate 261

Cobalt 57 Potassium 110

Copper 37 Silver 21

Gold 18 Tin 17

Iron Ore 76 Tungsten 36

Lead 18 Zinc 18

Conclusion re: Reserve/Consumption (Production)- Ratios

-- single values useless: only snapshot of a dynamicallydeveloping reserves/resources system

-- but very useful information in the time series !

(Source: ESYS-Analyse 2016:Rohstoffe für die Energieversorgung der Zukunft—Geologie--- Märkte--- Umwelteinflüsse)

(Source: ESYS-Analyse 2016:Rohstoffe für die Energieversorgung der Zukunft—Geologie--- Märkte--- Umwelteinflüsse)

(Source: Tilton, J. et al. (2018): Public policy and future mineral supplíes, Resources Policy.)

(Source: Wellmer, F.-W. et al. :Raw Materials for Future Energy Supply, Heidelberg, Berlin,New York (Springer) in print.)

Shortage

Price rise

Reaction through

Price incentives

Demand Side

• Thriftier consumption of materials

• Substitution

• New Technologies with totally

different raw material profile

Supply Side

• Primary Raw Materials (Exploration, Investment in new productions, Increase of recovery of raw material out of the deposits and in beneficiation/ metallurgy)

• Secondary Raw Materials (Improvement of Recycling, Use of lower grade scrap)

Supply and Demand in Balance again

Thriftier consumption of raw materials:

LED-Lamps – Reduction of

REE-requirements by 90%

Reaction according to the Feedback Control-Cycle of Mineral Supply -Example: Rare Earth-Elements (REE)

Technological substitution:

Induction motors

or (ferrit motors)

vs. Synchronous

Motors with

permanent

Magnets with

neodymium (Nd)

und

dysprosium (Dy)

(Source: ESYS-Analyse 2016:Rohstoffe für die Energieversorgung der Zukunft—Geologie--- Märkte--- Umwelteinflüsse)

(Source: Arndt, N. et al. (2017): Future Global Mineral Resources. Geochemical Perspectives 6,1, p.1-171)

Gs

am

tpro

du

kti

on

in

Mio

. t

Share Primary Production

Share Secondary Poduction

20

40

60

80

100

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

An

teil

an

de

r G

es

am

tpro

du

kti

on

in

%

Development of total Al-Production (Primary + Secondary Aluminium)

1960: 17 %

2009: 30 %

Prognosis 2020: 37 %

Quelle: International Aluminium Institute

(Deutsche Rohstoffagentur DERA /BGR)

We will always need both, primary and secondary resources

As to secondary rersources:

• 100% recycling thermodynamically impossible. There will always be losses.

• We have to take into account the lifetime of products in the economy.

We will always need both, primary and secondary resources

As to secondary resources :

• 100% recycling is thermodynamically impossible. There will always be losses.

• We have to take into account the lifetime of products in the economy.

Consumption

Life time

of products

Life timeof

products

Missing quantity for recyclingat time A

Time

Case 2

Case 1

A

We will always need both, primary and secondary resources

As to secondary resources:

• 100% recycling is thermodynamically impossible. There will always be losses.

• We have to consider the lifetime of products in the economy.

• The optimum of recycling, considering energy and environmental impact, is not 100%.

Platzhalter

Platzhalter

(Source: Arndt, N. et al. (2017): Future Global Mineral Resources. Geochemical Perspectives 6,1, p.1-171)

Consumer Resources

Consumer Resources

Common Denominator

Conclusion:

We need a standardized classification system for all sources

of raw material supply----primary and secondary resources----

to be able to monitor our future raw material supply.