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Why Are We So Stupid?

David Kerridge, Sarah Kerridge, and Margaret MorganSomeone once suggested the idea of a Deming tee-shirt. Asked whatshould be written on it, Dr. Deming said: "Why are we all so damnstupid?Well, why are we? We hear a new "Deming" idea, and at first itsounds meaningless, or even silly. Then quite suddenly it is obvious.Now we have another problem. We rush off to tell everyone else aboutthis wonderful insight, and they simply can't see it. The example, orthe explanation, that made things clear to us does not work for them: itmay even annoy them. But don't despair: there is nothing wrong with

you, or them. Everyone has the same experience.Our minds work in different ways. So to increase our ownunderstanding, and even more to help others, we must dig deeper intoour thinking. Somewhere, if we go deep enough, there are falseassumptions common to most people. Don't go about telling otherpeople how stupid they are: but when you can recognise these

fallacies in yourself you can help them much more.The Cause Fallacy

If we see something happen, we think that there must be adirect cause for it. Something moves, so something is pushingit. This was the basis of Physics for nearly 2000 years. ThenGalileo discovered inertia: once anything starts moving, it goes

on until something stops it.Applied to people, the "cause fallacy" means that no one willdo anything unless threatened or rewarded. Applied tovariation, everything has a special cause. Something has gonewrong: someone has blundered. No wonder so manymisunderstandings of the Deming Philosophy arise fromproblems of variation and motivation. When we try to point outthe obvious, we threaten the only way most people can make

sense of the world.

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The System FallacyThe system controls us and not us the system. This is verydeep-rooted. It makes us feel helpless, and so hopeless. Beliefthat the system is fixed leads to the idea of win-lose. All we can

do, without changing the system, is to adjust the control levers,to trade off one disadvantage against another.Of course, in reality, the system is changed all the time. Weindividually may not be able to change a very large part of it,but together we can change a great deal. A bigger problem,perhaps, is that we are afraid to change it. Until our ProfoundKnowledge is deep enough to know a good change from a badone, we should be afraid of change. We are more likely to

tamper than to improve. So experience warns us not to changethe system.

The Experience FallacyThere is nothing like experience, surely? Well, as Lewis Carrollsays, there is nothing like hay when you are faint. In fact,experience is very good when we want to go on exactly asbefore. We develop skill in handling the most frequentproblems. And we all know how much more comfortable it is to

be in familiar situations, handling them in familiar ways.Unfortunately the very reason why experience is so good in anunchanging situation makes it bad when we want to makechanges. We speak of "taking a fresh look": and that is justwhat we cannot do if we have too much experience. When youfirst go to work in a hospital, the "hospital smell" isoverpowering. After a week, you can no longer smell it. Themind has filtered out something that is always there. In the

same way, experience makes invisible the things that we seeevery day.Dr. Joyce Orsini was once asked "Is there any experience ofapplying the Deming Philosophy to plumbing?" She replied"No, you're really lucky, there's none at all". We should never

underestimate the creative power of inexperience.

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The Visibility Fallacy"Out of sight, out of mind", as the proverb has it. Weconsistently behave as if what we cannot see does not matter.In ordinary life, this often good enough. But in running an

organisation, any visible problem will soon be put right. If not,there is an invisible problem somewhere that stops peopleputting it right. So we should take it for granted that the mostimportant problems are invisible.Of course, the most common invisible problem is fear. Fearmakes everyone concentrate on appearing right, in coveringup, and making all the hidden problems worse. It takescourage as well as insight to make a change, however

necessary, that makes things look worse in the short run.The short-term is always more visible than the long-term, andthe measurable more than the immeasurable. In this onefallacy, we have the key to many problems. But that is true of

all the others.The Logic Fallacy

The world is a logical place isn't it? So a logical explanationpersuades us even when it is obviously contrary to the facts. It

is as if we need an excuse to believe our own eyes.This is why Dr. Deming, discussing the Theory of Knowledge,stresses that true knowledge is based on the power to predictthe future: not simply explanation. This has been the key toscientific advance in every field. But it has not yet got throughto everyday thinking. We make "obvious" assumptions, reasonlogically from them, and most of the time we get a goodenough answer. If not, life would be impossible.This may be the reason why many of these fallacies persist.What works well enough in ordinary life is "common sense".But as Dr. Deming says "Every theorem is true in its ownworld. The question is - which world are we in?" If we reasonfrom assumptions that are true in the world we know, we forgetthat they may be totally false in the transformed world we are

trying to create.

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The Lemming Fallacy"Everyone else thinks so, so it must be right". Naturally, youfeel safe if you think the same as everyone else. It must be a

great comfort to the lemming as it goes over a cliff.Of course, the majority often are right. But to make progress,you must run the risk of being wrong. One reason why thelemming fallacy is so popular is fear: conventional wisdom issafe. If you are wrong in the same way as everyone else, youcan hardly be punished for it. But a stronger reason may bethat most people do not know how to use a new idea:cautiously and safely, testing as you go using the Demingcycle. Hooray! We don't have to be lemmings after all. But, on

second thoughts, it was rather comforting....These fallacies are just a start: you can no doubt think of others. Theyall can be summed up as one great fallacy: the fallacy of common

sense.Of course it is true that common sense usually works, especially insimple problems: and many problems are simple. What is more, agreat many decisions have no lasting effect. It is better to dosomething quickly, rather than the right thing, too late. "Use your

common sense" is excellent advice.It is different when we come to long-term decision-making. Thesystems we deal with in management are not simple. Above all, thethings that common sense can do have usually been done already.What most people call "Common Sense" is reasoning fromassumptions that are deeply felt, but not stated. If we want to improvestill further, we must question "obvious" assumptions. The things wehave always assumed may not be true after all. But equally, if

common sense contradicts what a theory says, challenge the theory.Which gives better predictions?No wonder there is resistance to Dr. Deming's ideas. He wants us togrow up: not to follow blindly, but to think for ourselves. It is painful toanalyse our own stupidity, but a great mistake to deny it. There isgreat comfort in the old saying "In the country of the blind, the one-eyed man is king". Let us all study Profound Knowledge, and be a littleless blind.