Why Religion is at the Heart of America’s Identity Crisis...Same-sex Marriage: Pew Surveys, 2004-2009; PRRI Surveys, 20102018. Percent of Americans who are white Christian vs. percent

Why Religion is at the Heart of America’s Identity Crisis

Robert P. Jones, Ph.D.

Presenter

Presentation Notes

[PAUSE 3 SECONDS] “Thank you for gathering here today.” [READ OBITUARY] OPEN: Reading from Obituary, transition to describing image, then CCOA email. CCOA: We will soon be celebrating the 400th anniversary of the first Thanksgiving and God has still not withheld his blessings upon this nation, although we now richly deserve such condemnation. We have a lot to give thanks for, but we also need to pray to our Heavenly Father and ask Him to protect us from those enemies, outside and within, who want to see America destroyed. MOTIVATION FOR BOOK – POLITICAL AND RELIGIOUS DISFUNCTION, churches bending themselves to partisan agendas and parties fighting to the deathanxiety over cultural change at root. [TRANS] The need for a body—acceptance and closure.

2

The End of an Era

White Christian America

A metaphor for:

• the cultural and political edifice

• built primarily by white Protestant

Christians,

• which set the tone for our national

conversations and shaped American

ideals.

Presenter

Presentation Notes

READ FROM P. 38, “THE SOCIAL WORLD OF WCA"

Vital Signs

4

The One Chart:White Christian Minority, Same-sex Marriage Majority

5954 54 53

48 46 47 45 43 42 4132

36 37 3640 39

48

51 52 52 54 5359 61 64

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Sources: White Christian: General Social Survey, 2004-2012; PRRI Surveys, 2010-2016.Same-sex Marriage: Pew Surveys, 2004-2009; PRRI Surveys, 2010-2018.

Percent of Americans who are white Christian vs. percent who favor same-sex marriage, 2004-2018

White Christian Favor same-sex marriage

ObamaPresidency

5

A Minority White Christian Country

42

23

6

25

3

White ChristianNonwhite ChristianOther religionUnaffiliatedDont know/Refused

Source: PRRI 2017 American Values Atlas.

6

The Decline of White Christians by Age

63

50

35

23

16

23

26

25

5

5

7

8

13

18

29

40

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

65+

50-64

30-49

18-29


White Christian Nonwhite Christian Other religion Unaffiliated Don't know/Refused

7

More Young Adults are Unaffiliated Today than in the Past

10

2023

38

812

17

26

37

13

18

35

812

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1986 1996 2006 2016

Sources: General Social Survey, 1986, 1996, 2006; PRRI 2016 American Values Atlas.

Religiously Unaffiliated by Age Cohort, 1986-201618-29 30-49 50-64 65+

Presenter

Presentation Notes

One of the enduring myths about the unaffiliated is that young people have always been more likely to be unaffiliated and so there is nothing new here Simply not the case; in 1986 only 10% of young adults were unaffiliated—today four times as many are - Every age group has experienced an uptick in non-affiliation; and again the growth that occurred btw. 1996 and 2006 is much more modest than the growth that occurred btw. 2006 and 2016

8

The Decline of White Christian Subgroups, 2006-2017

2321.4 20.8 19.9

18.316.8

15.317.8 17

15.5 14.913.7 12.8 13.316 16.1

14.2 13.9 1311.4 11.3

0

5

10

15

20

25

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Source: Pew Religion and Public Life Survey, 2006-2009; PRRI, American Values Survey, 2010 and 2012; PRRI,

Pluralism Survey, 2011; PRRI 2013-2017 American Values Atlas.

White evangelical Prot. White mainline Prot. White Catholic

9

Decreasing Proportions of White Christians by StatePercentage of White Christians by State, 2007

HI 14

10

Decreasing Proportions of White Christians by StatePercentage of White Christians by State, 2016-2017

11

A Caveat: White Evangelicals, Proportion of Electorate vs. Population (2008-2018)

26 26 26 26 26 26

21 21 2018 17

15

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Source: National Exit Polls, 2008-2016; Pew Religion and Public Life Survey, 2008; PRRI, American Values Survey, 2010-2012; PRRI American Values Atlas, 2014-2018.

Electorate Population Linear (Population)

End of Life Bargaining: From “Values Voters” to “Nostalgia Voters”

Presenter

Presentation Notes

But to fully understanding Trump, and WXn support for Trump, need to dig a little deeper. Remarkable how little policy mattered in this election cycle, mostly about two competing visions of who the country should be in light of cultural changes. Trump: MAGA, like it was before Clinton: forward-pointing arrow, stronger together

13

Stages of Grief

14

Trump Remains Popular with White Evangelicals

30 2731

2428

33

43 4338 41

3742

3741 42

35 36

4839

4940

46

6168

7465

7368

76 7773 72

68 68

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Oct-18

Sources: PRRI Surveys, 2015-2018

Favorability of Donald Trump Among White Evangelical Protestants, 2015-2018All Americans White Evangelical Protestants

15

The Trump Effect on White Christian Political Ethics

Presenter

Presentation Notes

You can see the disintegration of a commitment to a set of unchanging values in a question about the importance of a political candidates’ character. It’s clear that white evangelicals have entered a grand bargain with the self-described master dealmaker, with high hopes that this alliance will stem the tide and turn back the clock. And Donald Trump’s installation as the 45th president of the United States may in fact temporarily prop up, by pure exertions of political and legal power, what white Christian America perceive they have lost. But these short-term victories will come at an exorbitant price. Like the biblical story of Esau, who exchanged his inheritance for a pot of stew, white evangelicals have traded their distinctive values for fleeting political power. No matter how many Christian right leaders are installed in positions of power over the next four years, there is little chance that 2016 will ultimately be celebrated as the revival of White Christian America. Rather, this election will mostly likely be remembered as the one in which white evangelicals traded away their integrity and influence in a gambit to resurrect their past.

Our Divided, Dysfunctional Nation:Partisanship, Religion, and Tribal Identity

17

Widening Religion Gap between the Parties

37

17

22

16

20

16

2

1

2

18

3

3

3

8

56

13

12

4 9

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Republicans DemocratsSource: Pew Religion and Public Life Survey, 2006.

2006 Unaffiliated

Other world religions

Jewish

Other Christian

Hispanic Catholic

Hispanic Protestant

Black Protestant

Mormon

White Catholic

White mainlineProtestantWhite evangelicalProtestant

33

7

19

12

16

10

4

1

1

17

3

3

3

9

5

6

1

3

1

3

1227

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Republicans DemocratsSource: PRRI 2017 American Values Atlas.

2017

18

Guess Who’s Coming to Dinner? Partisanship in the Family

19

Negative Views of the Other Party

5 5

38 39

54 52

4 4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Republican Party (amongDemocrats)

Democratic Party (amongRepublicans)

Source: PRRI 2017 American Values Survey.

Do you feel that the policies of the following...

Don't know/Refused

Are so misguided they poseserious threat to the countryAre somewhat misguided butnot dangerousMove the country in the rightdirection

Coming Together and Standing Apart

21

Interactions with Difference

22

Where Americans Encounter Difference

23

Which Institutions are Bringing People Together?

1950 or 2050? The Challenge of Re-Envisioning America

25

Stark Partisan Divides on the Ideal of Racial Diversity

26

Stark Partisan Divides on the Ideal of Religious Diversity

27

Nostalgia for the 1950s

66 66 65 62 60 57 57 48 43 42 41 41 36 31 25

34 34 34 36 39 43 43 51 56 57 59 57 64 68 74

0

20

40

60

80

100


Since the 1950s, do you think American culture and way of life has mostly changed for the better, or has it mostly changed for the worse?

Mostly changed for the better Mostly changed for the worse Don't know/Refused

Presenter

Presentation Notes

I’d argue that what we saw among Wxns in election was values voters transforming themselves into nostalgia voters, voters who were animated more by anxiety about a lost past than by a set of enduring principles. Voters who moved from promoting their values to defending their territory WEP: Nearly two thirds say it bothers them when they come into contact with immigrants who speak little English More than two-thirds believe that discrimination against whites has become as big a problem as discrimination against blacks and other minorities. Nearly 8 in 10 say discrimination against Christians has become as big a problem as discrimination against other groups. Amid this identity crisis, fears about cultural change and nostalgia for a lost era — bound together with the ties of partisan identity — combined to overwhelm the once confident logic of moral values.

28

1950 or 2050? The Challenge of Re-Envisioning America

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Norman Rockwell, Freedom from Want Artist Hank Willis Thomas and photographer Emily Shur recreated Norman Rockwell’s “Four Freedoms” series, featuring scenes that reflect this country’s complexity and diversity over 75 years later. When Rockwell made these paintings in 1943, Japanese-Americans were imprisoned in internment camps while African-American soldiers who grew up under Jim Crow fought in segregated units. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/12/lens/norman-rockwell-paintings-hank-willis-thomas-emily-schur-for-freedoms.html?em_pos=small&emc=edit_rr_20190316&nl=race-related&nl_art=1&nlid=76310764emc=edit_rr_20190316&ref=headline&te=1

Why Religion is at the Heart of America’s Identity Crisis

Robert P. Jones, Ph.D.

Presenter

Presentation Notes

As alluring as turning back the clock may seem to WCA’s loyalists, efforts to resurrect the dead are futile at best—and at worst, disrespectful to its memory. Like Mary Shelley’s Frankenstein, resurrection by human power rather than divine spirit always produces a monstrosity. If resurrection is not possible, both white evangelicals and white mainline Protestants—each still representing sizable constituencies in the country—will need to choose between sectarian retreat and a new kind of engagement. It seems highly unlikely that the descendants of WCA, having seen themselves at the American center for so long, will find a self-imposed marginal social presence comfortable. If this option proves unsatisfying, the only other course is a different social arrangement in which white evangelical and white mainline Protestants find their seats at the table alongside Catholics, Jews, Muslims, Hindus, Buddhists, and the religiously unaffiliated. And this time, they will be guests rather than hosts.

EXTRA SLIDES BELOW

31

Optimism About Cultural and Demographic Change

66 66 62 60 57 56 48 43 42 41 41 34 31 25

8573 78

6078 69 64 56 57 56 52 50 43 42

0102030405060708090

100

Sources: PRRI 2016 American Values Survey; PRRI/The Atlantic 2018 Voter Engagement Survey.

American culture has mostly changed for the better Demographic change mostly positive

32

Independent Predictors of 2016 Support for Donald TrumpAmong White Working-Class Voters

11

3.5

3.3

1.9

-1.7

-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12

Republican Identification

Fears of Cultural Displacement

Deport Undocumented Immigrants

Economic Fatalism

Economic Hardship

Source: PRRI/The Atlantic White Working Class Survey, 2016.

Support for Donald Trump: Odds Ratios from Multivariate Regression Model

Presenter

Presentation Notes

WWC constitute one-third of all Americans And XX% of Republicans

33

Racial/Ethnic Composition of Evangelicals

63

19

10

12 3 2

White, non-Hispanic

Black, non-Hispanic

Hispanic

API

Native American

Other/Mixed race

Don't know/Refused (VOL.)


Presenter

Presentation Notes

Among whites: Evangelical: 24 Mainline: 21 Catholic: 18 Unaffiliated: 26

34

Evangelicals by Race and Ethnicity

15

522

51

25White Evangelical

Black Evangelical

Hispanic Evangelical

API/Other/Mixed RaceEvangelicalNon-Evangelical Religious

Unaffiliated


35

Median Age of Evangelicals by Race

4753

5650

40 40

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

All Americans All Evangelicals WhiteEvangelicals

BlackEvangelicals

HispanicEvangelicals

API Evangelicals


Presenter

Presentation Notes

In 1997, the high-water mark for white evangelical identity in the U.S. according to the Pew data, the median age for white evangelical Protestants was 48. Today, it is 55.

36

Growing Discomfort with Children Marrying Across the Aisle

5

27

49

4

20

33

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1960 2008 2010Note: Numbers for 2008 and 2010 are percent who said they would be very or somewhat upset.Sources: Almond and Verba Civic Culture Study, 1959-1960; YouGov Surveys, 2008 and 2010.

Percent who say they would be displeased if son or daughter married a supporter of the other party

Republican Democrat

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Here’s the link to the article this data comes from (it’s a POQ article): https://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http%3A%2F%2Fpcl.stanford.edu%2Fresearch%2F2012%2Fiyengar-poq-affect-not-ideology.pdf

37

Most Republicans Distrust Reporters' Motives

53

79

52

31

43

17

45

66

0102030405060708090

All Americans Republican Independent DemocratSource: PRRI 2017 American Values Survey.

Do you think most reporters have a personal or political agenda, or are most reporters trying to report the news fairly and accurately?

Personal or political agenda Trying to report news accurately

Documents

Why Religion is at the Heart of America’s Identity Crisis...Same-sex Marriage: Pew Surveys, 2004-2009; PRRI Surveys, 20102018. Percent of Americans who are white Christian vs. percent