Why is There More Crime in Cities. (1)

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Why Is There More Crime in CitiesAuthor(s) Edward L Glaeser and Bruce SacerdoteSource JournalofPolitical EconomyVol 107 No S6 (December 1999) pp S225-S258 Published byThe University of Chicago PressStable URLhttpwwwjstororgstable101086250109

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Why Is There More Crime inCities

Edward L GlaeserHarvard University and National Bureau of Economic Research

Bruce SacerdoteDartmouth College

)re rates are uh hgher $ bg tes tha$ $ ether salltes or rural areas Ths paper epla$s ths o$$eto$ bamp us$g

t ato$ ata+ ee$e fro the 7SY o$ r$al behaor+ a$ the $for )re eports gher peu$aramp be$efts for re $ large tes a$ epla$ at ost o$euarter of the o$$eto$ betwee$ tamp se a$ re rates 7ower

probabltes of arrest a$ a lower probabltamp of reog$to$ arefeatures of urba$ lfe+ but these fators see to epla$ at osto$effth of the urba$ re effet etwee$ o$ethr a$ o$ehalf of the urba$ effet o$ re a$ be epla$e bamp the

prese$e of ore fealeheae house hols $ tes

Introduction

or$g to the 199 Statistical Abstract of the United Statesetropol ta$ areas hae lt9 pere$t ore ole$t res tha$ other era$ tes a$ 300 pere$t ore ole$e tha$ rural areas

ew Yor= a$ 7os $geles hae re rates that are approatelampfour tes hgher tha$ the re rates of etropolta$ areas as a

whole a$ hae ole$t re rates that are ore tha$ 25 testhe ole$t

Ths paper was wrtte$ for the raser $sttute o$fere$e for gtaramp e=ers65th brthaamp -e both tha$= the ato$al Se$e ou$ato$ for f$a$alsupport Saerote tha$=s the Jaob Jats ellowshp progra Aa )utler+e$ja$ rea$+ )laua gtol$+ 7arramp at+ Stee$ 7ett+ $$ Behl+ a$har Bos$er proe helpful oe$ts

C ournal of olitical Economy + 1999+ ol 10lt+ $o 6+ pt 2D983209 1999 bamp The $erstamp of )hago ll rghts resere 00223808 1999 10lt06S0013E0250

S225



S226 jour$al of poltal eo$oamp

g 1F)re a$ tamp populato$ relato$shp betwee$ re a$ tamp populato$ ta=e$ fro the 1982 $for )re eports a$ the 1980 e$sus t statsts 9

re rates of all etropolta$ areas gures 1 a$ 2 show the

pos te orrelato$ betwee$ tamp se a$ re rates per aptaGfg 1H a$ urers per apta Gfg 2H Itato$ results fro1989 show that the probabltamp that a$ $ual has bee$te Ge+ has ha a$amp re perpetrate aga$st h or her oer a so$th pe roH s 21lt pere$t f that $ual les $a tamp of ore tha$ 1 llo$ people The oparable fgure for tes wth populato$s betwee$ 1+000 a$ 10+000 s 9 pere$t1

Ths paper as=s whamp re rates are so uh hgher $ tes2

The o$$eto$ betwee$ re a$ tamp se s $ot a $ew fat

)r$ologsts hae susse the urba$ te$e$amp towar re for eaes Gsee+ eg+ la$go a$ Sherbe$ou C19lt6D Shhor+ Ae=er+a$ Ore$ C19lt9D 7arso$ C198D or two separate artles $ a$ow a$ -olfga$g C19ltltDH -rth G1938H susses the obsereo$$eto$ betwee$ re a$ urba$ato$ a$ argues that thso$$eto$ s ee$e for hs theoramp of KKurba$s as a waamp of lfeSoal obserers Gsuh as Thoas Jefferso$ a$ Jea$Jaues ousseauH hae lo$g argue that there ests a o$$eto$ betwee$ tesa$ oral behaor 7a$e G19lt9H oue$ts that $ the $$e

1 These results are alulate fro the ato$al )re Itato$ ata2 rba$ e$stamp a$ oaso$allamp lea to safetamp rather tha$ to re fter all+

eeal tes were bult to protet ther rese$ts GBre$$e 1929H rher a$gtart $er G198H f$ that $ s out of 2 ou$tres theamp sureamp+ hoe rates arelower $ the largest tamp GTo=ampo s the pre eapleH



re $ tes S22lt

g 2F4urer a$ tamp populato$ relato$shp betwee$ re a$ tamp popula to$ ta=e$ fro the 1982 $for )re eports a$ the 1980 e$sus t statst s 112lt

tee$th e$turamp+ the re rate $ at least o$e tamp was hgh e$ough

to justfamp these oe$tsThs paper tests a aretamp of theores about the orrelato$

betwee$ re a$ urba$ se3 -e eopose the obsereo$$eto$ be twee$ tes a$ re $to three a$ ategoresG1H hgher peu$ aramp retur$s to re $ urba$ areas+ G2H lower

probabltamp of arrest $ urba$ areas+ a$ G3H urba$ areasattrato$ Gor reato$H of repro$e $uals -e use atafro the ato$al )re I tato$ Sureamp G)ISH+ the

ato$al 7o$gtu$al Sureamp of Youth G7SYH+ a$ the $for

)re eports G)H to eo pose the urba$ re preu$to these ffere$t fators)tes aamp reate greater retur$s to re beause r$als aamp

hae greater aess to the wealthamp a$ fae a greater e$stamp of ts $ urba$ areas The o$$eto$ betwee$ tamp se a$ alue per re s large G13 $ the tato$ reors a$ 09 $ the ) ataH Aepe$$g o$ the elasttamp of re wth respet to eterre$e+ greater retur$s to re $ tes a$ epla$ a$ampwhere fro1333 pere$t to o$ethr of the urba$ re effet

3 ross tes+ $reases $ populato$ are ofte$ u$orrelate wth ha$ges $re Gsee rher a$ gtart$er C198D for a susso$H The $atural epla$ato$of ths see$glamp a$oalous fat s that there s a reerse ausaltamp proble $whh $reases $ re lea to el$es $ populato$ growth The este$eof safe+ hghlamp urba$e soetes Gsuh as Japa$ or olla$H a$ erta$lamp beepla$e as a result of stro$g soal oheso$+ whh a=es t possble to urba$eespte the probles that large tes br$g




f we o$trol for u$erreport$g of res $ tes+ t appearsthat ott$g res $ tes s less l=elamp to lea to a$ arrestGthe elasttamp s mdash10H O$e epla$ato$ for ths phe$oe$o$ sthat for a$amp ge$ re+ e$se urba$ areas hae a uh larger $uber of suspets The porta$e of ths phe$oe$o$ epe$so$ the elas ttamp of re wth respet to eterre$e f o$eaepts relatelamp

oest eterre$e elasttes Gsuh as those put forth bamp 7ettC1998bDH+ the$ lower arrest rates $ tes epla$ arou$ 10 pere$tof the urba$ re effet f o$e belees the sg$fa$tlamp hgher estates fou$ $ the trato$al eterre$e lterature Geg+ Lhrlh

19lt3+ 19lt5H+ the porta$e of ths effet aamp be a$amp tes

larger etwee$ 30 a$ 50 pere$t of the urba$ re preu $ both ) ata a$ )IS ata a$ be epla$e bamp obserableharater sts of urba$ rese$ts $ the rosstamp ) ata+ the

ost por ta$t arable s the pere$tage of fealeheaehousehols $ the tamp Ths result wthsta$s $strue$t$g for the$uber of feale

heae househols wth the lagge alue of thestateleel ge$eros tamp of paampe$ts fro to ales wth

Aepe$e$t )hlre$GA)H

The resual urba$ re effet a$ be epla$e bamp other ot

te soal arables+ whh are ofte$ e$oge$ous+ a$ possblamp bampthe wea=$ess of soal sa$to$s $ e$se urba$ areas or eaple+ $ the 7SY+ arables suh as arjua$a usage+te$e$es towar $o$ r$al ole$e+ hurh atte$a$e+ a$arables relate to pa te$e all are sg$fa$t $ ther abltamp toepla$ re Soe of these arables are relate to urba$rese$e+ a$ o$troll$g for these fores a$ reue the urba$re effet substa$tallamp -e o $ot hae these arables $ the) rosstamp ata+ o$ whh our eoposto$s are base+ so

the rea$$g tamp re effet aamp $ part be the result of ott$g these arables

Ths paper a=es four po$ts rst+ peu$aramp retur$s a$lass eterre$e are porta$t $ epla$$g the urba$ re

preu Seo$+ whle these lass fores are porta$t+together theamp prob ablamp epla$ $ot ore tha$ 50 pere$t of theo$$eto$ betwee$ re a$ tamp se+ so that we ust loo= elsewhere to u$ersta$ o$ehalf of the urba$ re preuThr+ a sable opo$e$t of the urba$ re preu s

relate to tes attrat$g re

pro$e $uals$ersta$$g whamp tes attrat these $uals s a press$gtop for further researh $allamp+ our f$$gs suggest that tesreate both poste a$ $egate aggloerato$ eo$o es+ a$slar fores le beh$ both the poste a$ the $egateattrbutes of tes or eaple+ the sae larger ar=et se thata=es tes appeal$g to frs+ espeallamp to those wth feosts+



re $ tes S229

wll also a=e tes ore appeal$g to rug ealers a$ theestramp $g to paw$ stole$ erha$se

Seto$ of the paper prese$ts a sple eoposto$ for ea $$g the preale$e of re The rea$er of the paper susses the estato$ of paraeters use $ the eoposto$

A Decomposition

Ths eoposto$ attepts to separate the pote$tal auses of therelato$shp betwee$ tes a$ the leel of r$al behaor s$ e=er G1968H+ $uals ot res whe$ the be$efts of

re eee the osts $ ge$eral+ the rule s to ot a rewhe$eer be$efts Ge$ote B H eee total osts Ge$ote θ +C H+ or B gt θ + C -e e total osts $to osts assoatewth the re tself Glost te+ pa$gs of o$se$e+ et+ whhare e$oteθH a$ osts assoate wth the probabltamp of arrest G H testhe osts of pu$she$t GC H5

The arable θ s a fu$to$ of a etor X of $ual attrbutesThese attrbutes are orrelate wth a$ eter$e bamp loato$The be$efts of re+ the probabltamp of arrest+ a$ the probabltampof fa$g soal reproah are also a fu$to$ of loato$ The ostof pu$she$t GC H s assue to be a o$sta$t oer spae a$aross $uals6 The be$efts per re wll also be a el$$gfu$to$ of the total $uber of res otte Ge$ote Hor spl tamp+ we assue that all pote$tal r$als $ the saeloato$ hae the sae X arableslt Thus the r$al eulbruwll be ef$e bamp the follow$g o$to$

BG$ + H= θGXH+ G$ HC G1H

$ ths oel+ we shall $te$to$allamp g$ore the $te$se arg$ of r$altamp-hle soures o$ res per r$al o est G)ha=$ 19lt8 luste$ a$)ohe$ 19lt9H+ we o $ot urre$tlamp hae the abltamp to l$= the $uber of res per r$al wth tamp se

5 $ a preous raft Ggtlaeser a$ Saerote 1996H+ we also ephase the roleof ou$tamp sa$to$s $ ste$g re -hle $ pr$ple ths effet aamp beporta$t+ we were able to easure o$lamp proes for t+ suh as the probabltampof =$ow$g o$es offe$er Ths probabltamp s hgher $ tes+ but ee$ ge$ thseffet+ our wor= estate that ou$tamp sa$to$s epla$ $o ore tha$ 10 pere$t of the urba$ re effet

6 $ fat+ the opportu$tamp osts of te lost $ jal appear to be hgher $ urba$areas+ whh shoul reate less re $ our 7SY saple+ ao$g $uals

who ha stole$ $ the past ampear+ ear$$gs are about 10 pere$t hgher $etropolta$ areas

lt t s relatelamp straghtforwar to allow for heteroge$etamp aross $uals $that ase+ e G1H ust hol o$lamp for the arg$al r$al




-e use the o$e$e$t $otato$ that the partal elasttamp of aarable

A wth respet to a$other arable B s c

A = GB

AHGpart A

partBH

ffere$tato$ ples that part

=

= part

C

B

-e a$ the$ ffere$tate G1H wth respet to tamp se Ge$ote N H

to f$c

B B X

N = c c N

mdash Cc c N+) c X c N G2H

7oato$spef attrbutes+ suh as tamp se+ ght G1H ha$ge the probabltamp of apprehe$so$ Gthe c

c terH or G2H affet the

retur$s N

fro re Gthe CB C DCc c

B D terH alter$atelamp+ G3H the ou

N

$tamp attrbutes ght ha$ge the leel of loato$base $ualharatersts that oul affet the apprehe$so$$ara$t osts of re Gthe sum c

c X

terH Our objete s to estate these paraeX N

ters a$ to eopose the o$$eto$ betwee$ re a$ tamp seThe purpose of ths eoposto$ s to eter$e whamp tes are

so uh ore repro$e tha$ sall tow$s a$ suburbs s thereore re $ tes beause urba$ e$stamp a=es t harer for the

pole to tra= r$alsM Aoes urba$ re result fro hgher peu $aramp retur$s ue to lower tra$sport osts a$ greater ar=etseM Or are tes flle wth re beause tes are flle wthre

pro$e $ualsM

Methodology and Data

The eoposto$ suggeste three praramp waamps $ whh tesght affet the re rate $ orer to plee$t ths+ we $ee toeter$e the ag$tue of three sets of paraeters lste eatelamp aboe -he$ possble+ we shall ta=e paraeters fro

elsewhere $ the lterature or eaple+ the o$$eto$ betwee$the probabl tamp of arrest a$ the leel of re s a uhstuessue+ a$ we are surelamp $ot go$g to proe o$ that lteraturehere oweer+ for soe paraetersF$ partular+ those relat$gre wth tamp seFwe use our ow$ ata

Data Sources

ll three ata sets are susse at le$gth $ the ppe$ The

ea$s of our praramp arables fro all three ata soures are $

B



re $ tes S231

table 1 ere we prese$t a bref oerew of the Our frst atasoure s the ato$al )re Itato$ Sureamp a$stere bampthe Aeparte$t of Justes ureau of Juste Statsts The

)IS as=s respo$e$ts a batteramp of ba=grou$ $forato$uesto$s+ a$ t as=s the whether or $ot theamp were the tsof a re wth$ the pror s o$ths f the respo$e$t waste o$e or ore tes+ the )IS as=s oe$s of further uesto$s about eah $e$t8 -e use two ffere$t saples frothe )IS we lt both saples to heas of househols to$rease the auraamp of a$swers Our frst saple s the fullsaple fro 1989 thruarter $terews Ths saple o$ta$s

people who hae a$ who hae $ot bee$ te $ the past s

o$ths Our seo$ saple s ta=e$ fro the thruarter $terews of the 1980 $e$tleel fle Ths saple $lueso$lamp people who were te -e belee that the osts of us$g oler G1980H ata are ae up for bamp the fat that the 1980ata hae a uh larger saple of ts $fortu$atelamp+ $ether saple tells us the eat tamp $ whh the respo$e$t les -e arefore to use a ra$ge of populato$ alues for the respo$ e$ts

plae of rese$eOur seo$ ata soure s the eeral ureau of $estgato$s

GsH $for )re eport$g progra These ata ge usres+ arrests+ a$ alue of propertamp ta=e$ bamp tamp bamp ampear -e l$= the ) ata wth tamp eographs fro the County and City Data Booamp G))AH+ a$ these eographs hae ge$erallamp

bee$ raw$ ultatelamp fro the S e$sus Our saple $luesthose tes wth ore tha$ 25+000 people a$ for whh we hae

both ))A a$ ) ata -e use 1982 ata for oparabltampfor our )IS a$ 7SY ata sets

The ) ata are base o$ law e$foree$t age$es reports to

the regar$g the $uber a$ tamppe of res reporte $ theloal jursto$ There s a$ ete$se lterature suss$g thear etamp of flaws wth the ) ata9 well=$ow$ ssue s the pote$tal for ) $ubers to u$erstate the ete$t of r$alattamp f t e$s u$erreport res to pole -e eploamp a

sple soluto$ to the report$g proble or ths paper+ we are prarlamp $tereste $ u$erreport$g+ as far as t s relate to tamp

se The )IS e$

8 The )I sureamps are $ot a$stere to a ra$o saple of the S populato$+ a$ so our alulate tato$ rates wll $ot be the sae as the St ato$ rates oweer+ the $o$ra$o$ess of the saple shoul $ot $a$amp waamp affet our estates of the orrelates of tato$

9 or eaple+ 7ett G1998aH shows both that there s substa$talu$erreport$g a$ that the report$g prope$stes $rease wth $reases $the pole fore Ao$ohue a$ Segela$ G1998H proe a$ ete$sesusso$ of the report$g bases $here$t $ the )



T7L 1

4ea$s bamp S4S a$ o$S4S

1989 )IS AataN

ll

GN = 8+328H o$S4S GN =1+929H

S4S

GN = 6+399H

It of a re 13 08 1G33H G28H G35H

S4S ltlt 0 1G219H G00H G00H

la= 10 0lt 11G30H G25H G31H

spa$ 0lt 0 0lt

G25H G19H G26Heporte re to pole 1 38 1G9H G9H G9H

Ialue of propertamp ta=e$ 8911 3lt880 50880G1+15325H G9655H G1+18219H

$ew offe$er Gor o$e of ultple 6 58 offe$ersH G50H G51H G50H

7SY AataN

ll o$S4S S4S

GN = 9+15H GN = 2+8lt2H GN = 6+2lt3H

ge 2036 2029 200G222H G221H G223H

S4S 69 0 1G6H G00H G00H

Stole soeth$ ltE50 $ ast ear 18 16 20G39H G3ltH G0H

Shoplfte $ past ampear 2lt 22 29GH G2H G5H

) )ross)tamp Aata ) a$ ))A

N = 633

Serous res per apta$ajuste 08

G03Hjuste for report$g bas 1lt

G0ltHIalue ta=e$ per re E53

GE30Hrrests per re 2

G08HBopulato$ 1982 116+852

G33+666H

oteFSta$ar eato$s are $ pare$thesesN Saple ses for arrest ae+ report to pole+ alue ta=e$+ a$ =$ew offe$er are 36+ 1+08+ lt09+ a$

15



re $ tes S233

ables us to estate the rato of reporte res to atual res bamptamp se -e use ths rato to ajust the ) re ratesffere$tallamp bamp tamp se S$e larger tes appear to hae oreu$erreport$g+ larger tes get a larger ajuste$t

Our f$al ata soure s the ato$al 7o$gtu$al Sureamp of Youth+ whh proes selfreporte ee$e o$ r$al behaor Gsee also reea$ 1992 gtrogger 1995H Our saple ta=es allrespo$ e$ts who a$swere uesto$s $ 1980 about whether or $ot theamp ha e$gage $ arous r$al attes a$ for whowe =$ow bas falamp a$ $ual haratersts Geg+ rae+$oe+ a$ e$sus rego$H -e are s=eptal about relamp$g o$selfreporte r $altamp easures+ but the hgh egree to whh

$uals see to freelamp at to pettamp res a=es ussoewhat ore reassure10

eause of sg$fa$t probles wth other easures of urba$sta tus $ the 7SY+ we use whether the $uals $habt asta$ar etropolta$ statstal area GS4SH as our easure of urba$ status Ths easure el$ates a$amp of the arato$ betwee$large tes a$ suburbs wth etropolta$ areas large ajortampof the saple G69 pere$tH les $ S4Ss

Ho Big (s the Connection beteen Crime and City Si)e

-e beg$ wth our estates of the elasttamp of reporte re totamp se Two of our ata sets allow us to estate suh ao$$eto$ Table 2 shows results fro the ffere$t ata sets Thefrst regres so$ uses the ) ata to regress the serous res

per apta o$ tamp se -e f$ a$ oerall elasttamp of 16+o$troll$g for the rego$ of the ou$tramp

f there s greater u$erreport$g $ tes+ ths f$$g aamp atu

allamp u$erstate the true elasttamp To ajust for u$erreport$g+ weuse the )IS+ whh tells us whether the t reports the res$g ths sureamp+ we a$ eter$e the ea$ leel of u$erre

port$g bamp tamp se ategoramp gure 3 shows the aou$t of u$erre port$g bamp tamp se -e hae the$ ajuste the reportere rate bamp the leel of u$erreport$g $ regresso$ 2 s theres soewhat less report$g $ larger tes+ ths ajuste$t ausesthe l$= betwee$ tamp se a$ re to rse the ajuste elasttamps 2

egresso$ 3 shows that the l$= betwee$ re a$ tamp se s$ot a $ew phe$oe$o$ $ 19lt0+ the elasttamp of re wthrespet to tamp se was hgher tha$ t was $ 1986 egresso$

shows that the

10 Aulo a$ Behl G1991H ete$selamp suss selfreporte ata o$ re Spela$ G199H suggests that selfreporte re ata of prso$ers appear to ath pole reors



T7L 2

)o$$eto$ betwee$ )re a$ )tamp Se

Aepe$e$t Iarable

O7S o$ )ross)tamp ) AataBrobt o$ )IS Brobt o$ 7SY

7og Serous 7og Serous 7og Serous 4ro Aata 4ro Aata )res per )res )res per 7og 4urers It of a Stole$ Bropertamp

)apta justeN )apta 19lt0 per )apta )re ltE50 $ BastYear G1H G2H G3H GH G5H G6H

$terept mdash1 mdash50 mdash68 mdash133G20H G20H G23H G2H

7ogGtamp populato$H 16 2 28 32G02H G02H G02H G0H

ple elasttamp of KKtwth respet to tamp se 12S4S 03

G02H)tamp populato$

1+0009+999 01G01H

10+0002+999 0G01H

25+0009+999 06G02H

50+00099+999 09G02H

100+00029+999 11G02H

250+00099+999 09G02H

500+000999+999 15G03H

1+000+000 16G03H

oteFSta$ar errors are $ pare$theses or ease of $terpretato$+ probts show partal erates of $ wth respet to X rather tha$ the atual probt oeffe$t tself The )IS proes tamp seategores as show$N juste re $ubers are ajuste by city si)e for u$erreport$g of res juste$t ethoologamp uses re a$ report$g ata fro the )IS

ow$loae fro20082312

o$ -e+ 13 4aamp201511183 4ll use subjet to JSTO Ter s a$ )o$to$s

ego$al ues $lueM

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ampes

20

ampes

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ampes

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ampes

251 mdash Cl$G+ Hl$G+ 0HD 02 01Obserato$s 63 63 63 51 8+328 8+910




re $ tes S235

g 3Feport$g of res bamp tamp se Soure ato$al )re Itato$Sureamp

o$$eto$ betwee$ re a$ tamp se s ee$ stro$ger whe$ weea$e the ost serous re that s least subjet to report$g errorFurer The elasttamp of urers wth respet to tamp se s 32 egresso$ 5 uses the tato$ sureamps a$ also f$s that

re s hgher $ large tes or the )IS we o $ot obsere theatual tamp se+ but $stea a ra$ge of tamp se groups that

esrbes the tamp $ uesto$ -e hae use the estates frothese ra$ges of tamp ses to alulate a$ oerall elasttamp of 12+whh s reporte $ the table as the ple elasttamp There s a

sg$fa$t gap be twee$ the tato$ elasttamp wth respetto tamp se a$ the elasttamp betwee$ re a$ tamp se ple

bamp both the base ) ata a$ the ajuste ) ata O$eepla$ato$ for ths ffere$e s that tato$ reports wll

elue ost res aga$st bus $esses a$ that tes are e$tersof bus$ess attamp egresso$ 6 uses the selfreporte r$altamp

ata $ the 7SY a$ shows that the selfreporte probabltamp of

ha$g otte a pettamp theft $ the past ampear for the saple of ampouths s hgher $ etropolta$ areas11

11 $ gtlaeser a$ Saerote G1996H+ we reproue all these results us$g selfreporte shoplft$g as well $ u$reporte regresso$s we hae also use as theeasure of r$al behaor be$g $arerate ur$g o$e of o$es 7SY $terews -e hae restrte our atte$to$ to ths $or re beause we belee that



S236 jour$al of poltal eo$oampIV The Importance of Deterrencemdash c

c

N

)tes ght lower the osts of re bamp lower$g the probabltamp

of arrest a$ the probabltamp of pu$she$t o$to$al o$ arrest $atural hamppothess s that pole are ore effete $ salltow$s beause theamp are ore l=elamp to =$ow the rese$ts of ther ou $tamp $ a relatelamp stable+ salltow$ e$ro$e$t O$eerso$ of ths hamppothess s that pole sole res bampo$ser$g the full set of possble suspets $ a re a$el$at$g all but o$e of the pote$tal r$als12 $ sall tow$s+

pole are able to $arrow the ra$ge of suspets $ a$amp partular re to a uh saller set a$ apprehe$ r$als uh ore

easlamp s tes grow+ f the $uber of res a$ the $uber of pole grow at the sae rate+ the$ apprehe$so$ wll stll beharer $ larger tes beause the pool of pote$tal suspets slarger lter$atelamp+ the o$$eto$ betwee$ pol$g a$ urba$areas aamp oe about beause tes hoose to spe$ fewer ollars o$ re pree$to$ a$ to aure fewer pole offers

Estimating the arameters

-e are $ow $tereste $ the elasttamp of re wth respet to the probabltamp of arrest tes the elasttamp of the probabltamp of arrestwth respet to tamp se Throughout ths seto$+ we g$ore ssuesthat ght oe fro a lower probabltamp of $arerato$ o$to$al o$ arrest $ tes a$ a lower le$gth of se$te$e o$to$alo$ $arerato$ $ tes The ata o$ these ssues+ whh areaal able+ suggest that there are sall ffere$es assoate wthhghlamp urba$e areas that te$ to suggest that there s lesseterre$e $ urba$e areas alo$g these e$so$s as well13

The elasttamp of the ua$ttamp of re wth respet to the probabl tamp of arrest s perhaps the ost porta$t s$gleelasttamp $ the epral lterature o$ re s the aou$t of re aamp also $ flue$e the probabltamp of arrest througho$gesto$ of law e$fore e$t+ a$ as other fators aampeter$e both arables+ or$aramp

the probabltamp of sho$est a$swers wll be lower wth a less serous offe$se+ a$wth ths offe$se a uh hgher share G18 pere$tH of the populato$ ats toha$g otte the re

12 $ee+ bas pole proeure tetboo=s Geg+ -esto$ a$ -ells 199H ore oe$ just suh a$ $estgato$ proess $ a$amp $sta$es

13 -e hae ea$e $arerato$ rates for bg ou$tes Gwhh are ore l=elampto be healamp urba$H relate to the $te States as a whole -hle the bgou$tes hae slghtlamp hgher $arerato$ rates+ the ffere$e s $ot huge or eaple+ lt pere$t of arrests for urer e$ $ prso$ $ large ou$tes a$ 52 pere$t of arrests for urer e$ $ prso$ $ the rest of the ou$tramp



re $ tes S23lt

least suares GO7SH estates hae lo$g bee$ thought to be baseGsee Taamplor 19lt8H oweer+ a$amp of the earlamp twostage leastsuares estates relamp o$ e$tfato$ restrto$s that see ffult to aept $fortu$atelamp+ o$e a$$ot ee$ o$$$glamp sg$the bas fa$g O7S estates

$ three separate papers+ 7ett G1996+ 199lt+ 1998bH proesthe best ee$e o$ the elasttamp of re wth respet toffere$t ea sures of eterre$e Gprobabltamp of arrest+ $uber of

pole offers+ a$ se of prso$ populato$H+ whh olletelampstro$glamp suggeststhat a$ estate betwee$ mdash1 a$ mdash s reaso$able s wor= uses sophstate $strue$tato$ strateges or use of t$g to

estatethe effets of eterre$e1 Other authors Gsuh as gtrogger C1991DHf$ slar estates+ but oler researhers oaso$allamp f$hgher elasttes or eaple+ the lass O7S estate of c

bampLhrlhG19lt3H s approatelamp mdash5 Larlamp twostage leastsuares estatesare ge$erallamp hgher or eaple+ the Lhrlh estate s mdash991+a$ a$ estate bamp 4atheso$ a$ Bassell G19lt6H s mdash296 Theseestates relamp o$ ubous $strue$tato$ strateges a$ see

plausblamp large relate to ost wor= -e shall prese$t results for paraeter estates of mdash2 a$ mdash5+ whh see l=e reaso$able

bou$s o$ the ag$tue of c

-hle we a$ ta=e estates of c fro the est$g lterature+ we$ee to eter$e our ow$ estates of the elasttamp of the

probabltamp of arrest wth respet to tamp se Our ethoologamp estates

log(arrests i +

= α

+ β logGN H+ X prime∆+micro

+ c + G3H

i i +

where i $ees aross re a$ $ees aross tamp+ a$ N stamp populato$+ X are other tampspef haratersts+ a$ micro sa tamp

spef ra$o effet -e hae a ffere$t obserato$ for eah tamppe of re+ a$ allow$g for ffere$t leels of αi e$ablesus to orret for the possbltamp that there s a ffere$t probabltampof arrest asso ate wth eah ffere$t tamppe of re -e assuethat tampleel haratersts affet the probabltamp of arrest for eah tamppe of re $ the sae waamp15

1 s lo$g as the probabltamp of arrest s a l$ear fu$to$ of the $uber of polea$ the aou$t of prso$e$t+ the$ all 7etts elasttes shoul be lose a$all sere as estates of c

15 -e hae $estgate ths assupto$+ a$ t appears that the elasttamp of the probabltamp of arrest wth respet to tamp se oes $ot ha$ge sg$fa$tlamp arossthe ffere$t tamppes of res

rei +




egresso$ 1 $ table 3 uses the ) to show the ost bas estate of the oeffe$t β mdash05 egresso$ 2 $ table 3 shows thatths elasttamp falls to mdash03 whe$ we hae o$trolle for a aretamp of

other tampleel o$trols f we o$trol for the tamps re rate tself G$ot show$+ beause of the etree e$oge$etamp probles$ole $ that regresso$H+ our estate falls to mdash02

These ffere$t spefato$s hae aa$tages a$ osts+ a$s$e we oul $ot possblamp f$ eoge$ous $strue$ts for eaharable+ $o spefato$ s perfet The eoposto$ oelsug gests that we shoul o$trol for tampleel haratersts a$the aer age re rate oweer+ these arables are ofte$e$oge$ous wth respet to the arrest rate s the paraeter estates o $ot ha$ge terrblamp uh+ our approah wll be to

show results $ seeral spe fato$s a$ to e$sure that theamp o$ot ha$ge uh epe$$g o$ the partular spefato$ $uesto$ $er soe o$to$s+ our two spefato$s ge

bou$s o$ the se of the o$$eto$ betwee$ tamp se a$ thearrest rate16

eport$g probles atter f $uals $ tes are less l=elampto report re tha$ $uals $ sall tow$s $ ths ase+ whlethe $uber of arrests per reporte re ght be the sae $ bgtes as $ sall tow$s+ the $uber of arrests per atual re

aamp be uh lower $ bg tes To orret for ths proble+ weaga$ ult ple the re rate $ large tes bamp the ete$t of u$erreport$g $ eah tamp lass $ the )IS Gas esrbeaboeH $ ths waamp+ we shoul hae a easure of res per tampfor whh u$erreport$g s $ot orrelate wth tamp se1lt $ table3+ regresso$ 3+ we regress ths ajuste re rate o$ tamp se $regresso$ + we regress the

ajuste re rate o$ tamp se a$ the full set of other o$trolsga$ the elasttamp estates are ute lose+ ra$g$g fro mdash13to

mdash10 f we ru$ regresso$s wth the atual re rate+ we get a$elasttamp of mdash0918

16 $ the ase of a true oel $ whh $ = bX + c- + falure to o$trol for - wll ea$ that the estate alue of b euals b + c sdot CoGX+ - HarGXHD)o$troll$g for - whe$ c s sestate wll ea$ that the estate alue of beuals b + Gcmdash c primeH sdot CoGX+ - H arGXHD $ the ase $ whh $ reflets re+ X refletstampse a$ - reflets the re rate+ a$ both b a$ c are trulamp $egate+ the O7Sestate of b wth $o other o$trols s base awaamp fro ero Gbeause csdot CoGX+ - HarGXHD s $egateH+ but the estate of b s base towar erowhe$ - s o$ trolle for a$ whe$ cprimeoerstates the ete$t to whh hgher rerates ause lower arrest rates beause of reerse ausaltamp

1lt Of ourse+ s$e we hae $ot ajuste bamp a tampspef report$g rato+ the$u ber of res wll stll be seasure+ but at least ths seasuree$twll $ot be orrelate wth tamp se

18 $fortu$atelamp+ we are $ot able to estate the elasttamp of arrest rates wth respet to tamp se for our )IS saple -e hae o$lamp 33 obserato$s $ whhres le to a$ arrest



T7L 3

)tes a$ the Brobabltamp of 5rrest

Aepe$e$t Iarable

) Aata

7og juste

oteFSta$ar errors are $ pare$theses egresso$s 1 are est ate us $g a pa$el ap proah ra$ o tamp effets wth fe eff ets for tamppe of re egresso$ 6 s a probtof KKpole st re se$e f a re was otte or $terpretato$+ elasttes are show$ rather tha$ probt oeffe$ts or ths regresso$+ the follow$g other arables areuse for pere$tage hgh shool+ hghest grae oplete for pere$tage $o$whte+ a uamp arable for bla= for u$eploampe$t rate+ ha job for pere$tage hous$g ow$er oupe+ ow$s hoe for pere$tage populato$ below poertamp+ a uamp arable for low $oe a$ for pere$tage fealeheae househol+ arre The elasttamp $ regresso$6 s alulate fro oeffe$ts o$ eght tamp se ues

N 7ogGarrest rateH s $ot aalable for all tes a$ all res

ow$loae fro20082312


7og rrests per )re

rrests per )re

7og BoleOffers per

)apta

)IS AataBole Ist

)re Se$eG1H G2H G3H GH G5H G6H

$terept 3 mdash16 53 02 mdashlt10

G21H G3H G13H G3H G19H7ogGtamp populato$ 1982H mdash05 mdash03 mdash13 mdash10 05

G02H G02H G02H G02H G01Hple elasttamp wth respet to tamp seBere$tage populato$ below poertamp+ 19lt9 132 11 mdash182

mdash01

mdash03G55H G55H G31H G03H

Bere$tage hous$g ow$er oupe 1 13 mdash08 mdash01G18H G18H G10H G0H

Bere$tage $o$whte mdash38 mdash36 mdash26 0G1ltH G18H G10H G0H

Bere$tage wth ampears hgh shool 9 0 mdashlt1 mdash01G32H G32H G18H G01H

Bere$tage wth ampears ollege mdash3 mdash30 81G30H G30H G1ltH

$eploampe$t rate mdash110 mdash120 3 02Glt0H Glt0H G39H G03H

Bere$tage fealeheae househol mdash69 mdash83 10 00G65H G66H G36H G03H

ego$al ues $lueM ampes ampes ampes ampes ampes $o

uber of tes times 6 ffere$t tamppes of reN 3+663 3+663 3+663 3+663 sdot sdot sdot uber of tes or people 63 63 63 63 63 1+05





$ regresso$ 5+ we test the subhamppothess that lower re rates$ tes are relate to greater leels of spe$$g o$ pole -e f$that bg tes spe$ o$serablamp ore per apta o$ the $uber of pole Ths result s true ee$ f we o$trol for the aeragere rate per apta G$ot $ the tableH+ although $ that ase theelasttamp of pole offers per apta wth respet to tamp se fallsto 02 e gresso$ 6 uses )IS ata to show that pole are $oless l=elamp to oe to the se$e of a re $ larger tes Thus we

belee that the probabltamp of be$g arreste $ tes s $eelower+ but ths reuto$ s $ot the result of less spe$$g o$

pole $ tes or a lower l=elhoo that pole $estgate resThe lower probabltamp of arrest appare$tlamp stes fro a greater

ffultamp of ath$g r $als $ large urba$ areasagnitude of eect Ft appears that the probabltamp of

arrest s $ ee lower $ tes The elasttamp of the arrest ratewth respet totamp se plausblamp ra$ges betwee$ mdash03 a$ mdash13+ wth mdash08 asa reaso$able po$t f we aept the mdash2 estate of the effetof eterre$e o$ re+ the role of less eterre$e $ epla$$gwhamp tes hae ore re a$$ot be ore tha$ mdash02+ or approatelamp833 pere$t of the 2 estate whe$ ajuste re rate ata areuse Gf we use the upper bou$ for the arrest rate elasttamp+ tsees reaso$able to opare ths wth the upper bou$ elasttampo$$et$g tamp se wth reH oweer+ f we use the mdash5 estates of the effet of eterre$e o$ re+ the$ as uh as mdash05or 208 pere$t of the effet a$ be epla$e bamp less eterre$e $tes

$foral ou$tamp sa$to$s aamp be as porta$t as foral+le gal sa$to$s $ el$at$g re rba$ a$o$amptamp a=es thar to e$fore sa$to$s G-lso$ a$ err$ste$ 1985H 7=ewse+the ou$tes that woul e$fore a$amp sa$to$s aamp be wea=er

$ tes beause people $ the tes are ore tra$se$t or orea$o$amp ous a$ therefore ore l=elamp to be free rers Gsee -rth1938 But$a 1993H19 gtlaeser G1998H forales soe of theseargue$ts a$ prese$ts ee$e suggest$g that soal oheso$appears to e l$e $ large tes $ a preous erso$ of ths

paper Ggtlaeser a$

Saerote 1996H+ we estate the relato$shp betwee$ =$ow$go$es offe$er a$ tamp se as mdash11 Ths f$$g suggests thaturba$ a$o$amptamp s a fat+ but t oes $ot suggest how porta$tths fat aamp be $ re pree$to$

19 4lgra G19lt0H las that tes reate a$ $forato$al oerloa that leas bampsta$ers to ao $olee$t $ res aga$st ther $eghbor Jaobs G1961Hargues that tes abet res o$lamp whe$ urba$ $eghborhoos lose ther trato$alsoal strutures



re $ tes S21

I The Returns to Crime and City Sizemdash c

NB C

cB

$atural epla$ato$ for whamp tes hae a hgh retur$ fro res that osts of tra$sport for re are etreelamp hgh $ee+

r $ologal wor= stro$glamp suggests that r$als o $ot traello$g sta$es to perfor res These hgh tra$sport osts aampste fro the $ee to leae the se$e of the re u=lamp or the

fful tes $here$t $ arramp$g stole$ erha$se oer lo$gsta$es20 partular for of the aa$tages of e$stamp s that

tes reate re bamp reat$g protamp betwee$ wealthamp pote$tal ts a$ poor pote$tal r$als rba$ e$stamp

shoul lower tra$sport osts+ $rease the retur$s per re+ a$$rease the oerall re leel Ae$stamp aamp plaamp a partular role $ street re+ where the etho of street r$als s

esse$tallamp to st a$ wat for prospete ts to oe wth$ther ra$ge of sght e$se area wll hae a uh larger streaof pote$tal ts tha$ a$ eptamp area+ a$ the retur$s fro thstamppe of re shoul be hgher $ urba$ areas Lther the retur$s

per re wll rse wth e$stamp as r$als hoose o$lamp the ore pros$g ts or r$als wll selet ore ts a$ the

retur$s per hour of r$al attamp wll rse wth e$stamp Ae$seurba$ areas aamp also help r$als beoe better $ fore

about a wer ra$ge of ts+ a$ thus r$als $ bg teswll be able to hoose the ost lurate re ao$g a greater

ra$ge of res gtreater $forato$ flows $ tes also a=e t pos sble for $uals to aure $forato$ that wll tself reue the osts of re to the r$al+ for eaple+ lear$$g

easer waamps to brea= $to aparte$ts $allamp+ tes aamp rase theretur$s to r $al attamp beause urba$ areas reate sale

eo$oes that ease the resale of stole$ goos or the purhase of

r$al plee$ts Geg+ gu$sH t s ro$ that the sae urba$aa$tages+ lower tra$sport osts+ faster urba$ $forato$ flows+

a$ the sae sale eo$oes that help to a=e tes ore proute also $rease the leel of

re $ the tamp


The effet of alues per re s c c

B B C+ where c

s thesae

N

eterre$e elasttamp susse aboe The rato B C Gash be$eftsof re oer lawrelate epete ostsH s $eessaramp so that we

a$ tra$sfor the elasttamp of re wth respet to the probabltampof

20 These osts of sta$e beoe partularlamp hgh f the r$al belo$gs to asooeo$o or eth$ group that s sblamp ffere$t fro the $or of thets $eghborhoo




arrest $to the elasttamp of re wth respet to peu$aramp be$efts The aerage f$a$al loss reporte $ the )IS per re s E53 The aerage f$a$al loss $ the ) ata s E89

per re $ prop ertamp res -e shall therefore use E500 as our estate of B21

The probabltamp of report$g a re s 1 pere$t aor$g tothe )IS ata ro the )+ the probabltamp of arrest per reporte re aross the $te States as a whole s 2 pere$t-e shall borrow fro 7ett G1998bH for the epete aou$t of te lost o$to$al o$ arrest22 e alulates a$ aerage loss of lt0 aamps per arrest oer propertamp res Thus the total aou$t of te lost per re s 689 aamps f we alulate eah aamp as be$g

worth E50 G10 hours tes E5 per hourH+ the$ the rato of peu$aramp be$efts oer osts s 15 -hle ths estate s presuablamp$osamp+ t sees l=e a reaso$able be$har=23

$ table + we estate the o$$eto$ betwee$ retur$s to rea$ tamp se egresso$ 1 shows the o$$eto$ betwee$ alue

per re a$ tamp se -e aga$ treat eah re ategoramp $ eahtamp as a separate obserato$ a$ o$trol both for re ategoramp spef fe effets a$ tampspef ra$o effets -eo$ser o$lamp res that hae a peu$aramp rewar Geg+ robberes+

lare$es+ bur glares+ a$ auto theftH $ regresso$ 2+ whe$ weo$trol for other tampleel haratersts+ our estate elasttamps 09 f we repro ue these results o$troll$g for the $uber of res per apta G$ eah re ategorampH+ the elasttamp s 10-hle there are aa$ tages a$ saa$tages of eahspefato$+ as all three spefa to$s proue slar

paraeter estates+ we are ofortable wth the oplete pturefro the regresso$s2

The $et two regresso$s $ table show results fro the

)IS egresso$ 3 ges the elasttamp wth respet to tamp sewhe$ rego$ a$ re ategoramp are o$trolle for 1 egresso$ shows that the elasttamp s 13 whe$ tleel haratersts

are o$trolle for egresso$ 5 uses the )IS a$ ea$es o$lampthose assaults G$lu$g rapeH that were $ot aopa$e bamp

a$amp sort of theft egresso$ 6 ea$es the $uber of rapes per apta $ the ) ata $ both ases+ the effet of tamp se o$

re s greater wth

21

t s erta$lamp l=elamp that the loss to the t s less tha$ the ga$ to ther$al oweer+ ths $uber ght also be base ow$war bampu$erreport$g

22 7ett o$sers te lost o$lamp wth$ two ampears of arrest+ but for a$amp resa$ $ ost ases+ ths s probablamp a goo approato$+ espeallamp f sou$trates are hgh

23 O$e waamp of jug$g the reaso$able$ess of ths $uber s that t ples that 69 pere$t of the osts of re are relate to pole a$ 31 pere$t of the osts of re oe fro other soures

2 urtherore+ our results ght be base f $uals $ ether loato$ wereattept$g ore ffult res



re $ tes S23

these $o$peu$aramp res -e ust therefore o$lue that $a$amp ases the o$$eto$ betwee$ re a$ tamp se has$oth$g to o wth hgher peu$aramp retur$s $ tes

agnitude of eect F-e shall o$ser the be$har=elasttamp of

11 for the elasttamp of be$efts wth respet to tamp se oweer+the ag$tue of ths effet h$ges rtallamp o$ o$es ew of theestate of the elasttamp of re wth respet to eterre$e f o$eaepts the estate of mdash2 for the eterre$e elasttamp a$ 15as the alue of BC + the$ the se of ths effet shoul beappro atelamp 032+ whh s ore tha$ 10 pere$t of theo$$eto$ be

twee$ re a$ tamp se f o$e aepts the hgher estate of theeterre$e elasttamp+ the$ ths $uber rses to 080+ whh s o$ethr of the oerall tesre o$$eto$ whe$ we ajust for greater u$erreport$g $ tes

VI Crimerone Indiiduals and Citiesmdash sum cc

P

P N

gh urba$ re leels aamp our beause people wth a greater prope$stamp towar re aamp hoose to le $ tes Ths s a$ olew gte$ess 10 6 las that the frst urerer G)a$H bult thefrst tamp ttrbutes of urba$ $eghborhoos or labor ar=ets or tra$sfer progras aamp seletelamp $ue repro$e perso$s tooe to the tes

lter$atelamp+ tes aamp atuallamp alter ther rese$ts $ a waampthat a=es the ore pro$e towar re ttrbutes of tes aampalter peoples $este$t $ hua$ aptal or $ tastes Gsuh as

pate$eH that are relate to re Soal $terato$s a$$eghborhoo ef fets Gas $ )ase a$ at C1991DH aamp be ore

porta$t $ e$se urba$ areas+ a$ these fores aamp alter prefere$es G-lso$ a$ err$ste$ 1985H These peer $flue$esare fou$ to be ore $ flue$tal whe$ there are wea= fales+so we shoul epet that fa lamp struture $ tes ght be a$porta$t epla$atoramp arable as well Ggtlaeser+ Saerote+ a$She$=a$ 1996H


$ ge$eral+ we shall just report the ete$t to whh the relato$shp betwee$ tamp se a$ the leel of re s affete bamp the $luso$of other arables $ ge$eral+

d log =

part log +)

part log sdot

part X=

part log +

) c X

d logN

part log

N

partX part logN

part log

N

X c N+ GH





7es $ bul$g wth Š10 aparte$ts 1lt mdash0013

G10H G0010Halamp $oe G15 groupsH mdash161 0 002lt

Glt0H G01H G001ltH)tamp populato$

1+0009+999 mdash12 mdash05 mdash000

10+0002+999G10H

mdash06

G10H

mdash05

G001ltH

mdash003G11H G11H G0011H

25+0009+999 mdash08 mdash0lt 0033G12H G12H G0029H

50+00099+999 1 16 0052G12H G12H G0036H

100+00029+999 mdash03 01 mdash0003G12H G12H G0019H

250+00099+999 21 22 0013G1H G1H G0029H

500+000999+999 21 2 0029G1H G1H G0035H

Š 1 000 000 9 88 0055G12H G13H G00H

Llasttamp of alue Gor KKreport or 05 09 1 13 22 21KK=$ewH wth respet to tamp se G02H G02H G03H

1 mdash Cl$G+ Hl$G+ 0HD or R 2 02 15 Obserato$s 63 63 3+98 3+98 8+328 60

oteFegresso$ 1 s the logGalu eH o$ tamp se ru$ as a pa$el wth fe effets for the tamppe of re Sta$ar errors are orrete for tampleel ra$o effe ts egresso$ 2as eograph o$trols Geg+ pere$tage below the poertamp l$e a$ the pere$tage hgh shool grauatesH a$ four ues for the tamppe of re Geg+ robberes+ burglares+lare$es+ a$ auto theftsH egresso$s 1+ 2+ a$ 6 $lue rego$al ues or the ) rosstamp regresso$+ the follow$g other arables are use for ow$s rese$e+ pere$tagehous$g ow$er oupe for ha job+ tamp u$eploampe$t rate for hghest grae ahee+ pere$tage grauate fro hgh shool a$ for falamp $oe+ pere$tage below poertamp

S2

ow$loae fro20082312






or the ffere$e betwee$ the raw oeffe$t of re o$ tamp se a$ the oeffe$t of re o$ tamp se whe$ we o$trol for other X

arables s eual to sum cXc N Thus the ffere$e $ the oeffe$ts betwee$ a regresso$ that oes $ot o$trol for X arables a$ a

regresso$ that oes o$trol for X arables proes us wth a$ est X

ate of sum c X c NThe oel suggests that the =eamp arables wll be the haraters

ts of the offe$ers To ea$e ths hamppothess+ we ust use the 7SY+ whh o$ta$s roleel ee$e o$$et$g theoffe$ ers haratersts wth hs or her probabltamp of ott$g a re s e$to$e earler+ the raw oeffe$t of S4S status o$ re fro the 7SY s 03 $ part of table 5+regresso$ 1+ we f$ that a$amp other arables affet the

prope$stamp to beoe a r$al oweer+ the oeffe$t o$ tampse oes $ot ha$ge at all whe$ we o$trol for a aretamp of bas$ual eographs

egresso$ 2 $lues the S4S status at age 1 a$ whether the $ual grate s$e age 1 $uals who le $S4Ss at age 1+ but o $ot as aults+ are just as pro$e to reas $uals who $ow le $ S4Ss $ etree $terpretato$of ths result s that s$e people rase $ tes are just as re

pro$e whe$ theamp leae+ we shoul $terpret all of the urba$ re preu as o$g fro haratersts of urba$ rese$ts or a$amp reaso$s Gthe lts o$ geographamp $ ths ata set or the

probles wth us$g self reporte ata o$ pettamp theftH+ we prefer to a=e a ore lte $ terpretato$ that the 7SY suggeststhat the haratersts of urba$ rese$ts are eramp porta$t

$ regresso$ 3 we $lue a aretamp of other arables that arehghlamp e$oge$ous a$ aamp reflet otte $ual haraters

ts These arables aamp be orrelate wth pate$e+ rs=

aerso$+ or wll$g$ess to brea= rules+ a$ we ew the as proes for these attrbutes -e $lue arjua$a usage+ whh s

etreelamp stro$glamp orrelate wth propertamp theft -e $lue theage at whh the re spo$e$t frst so=e garettes Gwhh s

$egatelamp orrelate wth reH a$ other serelate arables+whh are $sg$fa$t $ ths regresso$25 -e also $lue two

arables relat$g to ole$t beha or ha$g fought at shool or wor= $ the last ampear a$ ha$g at ta=e soeo$e wth the $te$t

to $jure or =ll oth of these ar ables are stro$glamp orrelate

wth r$al attamp+ but $lu$g these arables reues theS4S effet o$ re bamp o$lamp 10 pere$t $ part of table 5+ weshow the results of o$troll$g for tamp a$ tleel

haratersts $ the )IS a$ the ) The effet of tleel haratersts aamp reflet the ffultamp of the re

25 These arables are alost all sg$fa$t f $lue o$ ther ow$



re $ tes S2lt

f r$als ge$erallamp rob ther $eghbors+ the$ the tleelhar atersts aamp be a proamp for the r$als haraterstsegres so$ 1 shows that the o$$eto$ betwee$ re a$ tampse e l$es bamp o$ethr Gfro 12 to 08H $ the )IS whe$we o$trol for tleel haratersts

egresso$ 2 prese$ts results fro the ) a$ $lues aaretamp of sta$ar eographs -th these o$trols+ theoeffe$t o$ tamp se rops to 09 fro 1626 The o$lamp hghlampsg$fa$t o$trol arable $ regresso$ 2 s the pere$tage of fealeheae house hols+ whh has a$ etreelamp posteeffet o$ the re rate The $luso$ of these o$trols reues theurba$ re oeffe$t bamp pere$t+ whh s lose to the 33

pere$t rop $ the elasttamp of tamp se fou$ whe$eographs are $lue $ the )IS tato$ regresso$ greater rop woul be epete $ the ) s$e tampeographs o$trol for haratersts of both the r$als a$the ts

egresso$ 3 aresses the possbltamp that fealeheae househols are be$g ause bamp re a$ $ot the reerse $ee+ t sute plausble that the hgh leels of re ao$g e$ $uewoe$ to ao arrage To ha$le ths reerse ausaltamp ssue+

we $strue$t for fealeheae househols bamp us$g laggealues of A) be$efts at the state leel Our e$tfamp$gassupto$ s that the A) be$efts shoul be epete to hae affere$tal effet $ tes wth a$ wthout a sg$fa$t group of

poorer $uals Ths assupto$ sees ute reaso$able to uss$e these paampe$ts shoul $ot $flue$e the arragerelate$e$tes for wealther $uals The frststage regresso$ thatwe estate s

Bere$tage fealeheae househol+ 1982

= 088 mdash 000 times A) be$eft + 2 times poertamp rate+ 19lt0G01H G000H leel+ 19lt0 G0lt8H

+ 003 times A) be$efts times poertamp rate+ G0005H

N = 633+ R 2 = 5 sta$ar errors are $ pare$thesesBoertamp $ 19lt0 s $ot a$ $strue$t -e allow t to hae a$ $e

pe$e$t effet o$ re bamp $lu$g t $ the seo$stage regresso$ The atual $strue$ts are leel of A) be$efts a$ the $

terato$ of A) be$efts wth poertamp s we epete+ the effetof A) be$efts o$ the $uber of fealeheae househols s

uh hgher f the leel of poertamp s hgher Ge+ f the $uber of

26 )o$troll$g for eographs Ge+ pere$tage $o$whteH alo$e wll reate 90 pere$t of ths rop



T7L 5

)tes a$ )haratersts

Brobts fro 7SY GN = 8+910HN

Stole$ Bropertamp

ltE50 $ Bast Year

G1H G2H G3H

S4S 030 060 02ltG010H G01H G015H

ge 0lt3 0lt3 08G01H G00H G062H

ge suare mdash002 mdash002 mdash002G001H G001H G001H

7oal u$eploampe$t rate mdash001 mdash002 mdash001G00ltH G00ltH G010H

alamp $tat Gother a$ fatherH mdash02 mdash02 mdash008G011H G011H G016H

ghest grae ahee mdash001 mdash001 mdash001G00H G00H G00ltH

4ale 126 12lt 10ltG008H G008H G013H

la= mdash03 mdash02 mdash028G013H G01H G022H

spa$ mdash028 mdash026 019G019H G019H G033H

ghest grae other ahee 00 00 006G002H G002H G003H

4other wor=e whe$ respo$e$t was age 1 mdash001 mdash001 mdash020G009H G009H G013H

QT sore 001 001 001G000H G000H G000H

tte$s hurh Š o$e er o$th mdash028 mdash029 011G009H G009H G013H

S4S at age 1 but $o$S4S $ow 061G019H

S4S $ow but $o$S4S at age 1 025

)ha$ge tamp tow$ of rese$e s$e brth

G01H

mdash009G009H

uber of tes use arjua$a $ past ampear 035G003H

ge frst so=e garette 005G002H

ge frst ha seual $terourse mdash002G003H

as se wthout brth o$trol mdash001G018H

e starte r$=$ Š o$e er wee= mdash001G003H

tta=e soeo$e wth $te$t to $jure $ past 056ampear G021H

ought at shool or wor= $ past ampear 0lt1G016H

ego$al ues $lueM ampes ampes ampes

1 mdash Cl$G+ Hl$G+ 0HD 0 0 10

S28



T7L 5 GContinued H

) a$ )IS

Aepe$e$t Iarable

7og Serous )ISR )res per

It of a)re

)apta GN =63H

7og Serous)res juste

GN = 8+328H GN = 63HG1H G2H G3H GH

$terept mdash22 mdash23 mdash39

G29H G29H G29H7ogGtamp populato$H 08 09 09 1lt

G02H G02H G02HBere$tage populato$ be 03 61 6 52low poertamp G01H G6H G69H GltH

Bere$tage hous$g ow$er mdash05 mdash12 mdash13 mdash12oupe G01H G15H G15H G16H

Bere$tage $o$whte mdash00 mdash29 mdash29 mdash31G01H G15H G15H G15H

Bere$tage wth ampears 00 23 23 30hgh shool G00H G2ltH G2ltH G2ltH

Bere$tage wth ampears mdash1 mdash1 mdash3ollege G25H G25H G26H

$eploampe$t rate 01 93 91 102

G01H G59H G59H G60HBere$tage fealeheae 33lt 339 39househol

7es $ bul$ wth Š10 03G55H G55H G56H

aparte$ts G01Hego$al ues $ $o ampes ampes ampes

lueM7agge pere$tage popula 16

to$ below poertamp GI G53Hregresso$H

R 2 Gor 1 mdash log l=elhoo 09 2 2 8ratoH

oteFSta$ar errors are $ pare$thesesN or east of $terpretato$+ probts show partal erates of $ wth respet to X rather tha$ the

atual probt oeffe$tR or )IS probt+ the elasttamp of KKt wth respet to tamp se s estate fro oeffe$ts o$

eght tamp se ues GThe )IS proes o$lamp tamp se ategoresH lso $lue $ the )IS probt but $ot show$ are o$trols for age+ ale+ arre+ a$ spa$ The follow$g other arables are use for pere$t age below poertamp+ $ botto 25 pere$t of saple for falamp $oe for u$eploampe$t rate+ haa job last wee= a$ for pere$tage $o$whte+ a uamp arable for bla= Bartal erates are show$rather tha$ probt oeffe$ts

$ regresso$ 3+ pere$tage fealeheae househol s treate as e$oge$ous+ a$ two $strue$ts areuse to estate the oeffe$t o$ pere$tage feale hea of househol The $strue$ts use are A)

paampe$ts per repe$t househol $ 19lt0 a$ A) paampe$ts tes pere$tage of populato$ below poertamp l$e $ 19lt0

juste re $ubers are ajuste by city si)e for u$erreport$g of res juste$tethoologamp uses re a$ report$g ata fro the )IS

S29



T7L 6

)tes a$ )haratersts elato$shp betwee$ Se a$ )haratersts GN =

63H

Aepe$e$t Iarable

Llasttampth

egresso$ of 7ogGSerous )reH

o$ )tamp Se a$

egresso$ of 7ogGSerous )rejusteH o$ )tamp

Se a$

)tamp Se Aeographs AeographsN )ol 1 times )ol 2 )ol 1 times )ol 3G1H G2H G3H GH G5H

Bere$tage populato$ below poertamp 02 61 52 01 01G00H G6H GltH

Bere$tage hous$g ow$er oupe mdash0 mdash12 mdash12 00 00G01H G15H G16H

Bere$tage $o$whte 0lt mdash29 mdash31 mdash02 mdash02G01H G15H G15H

Bere$tage wth ampears hgh shool mdash01 23 30 00 00

Bere$tage wth ampears ollegeG01H

mdash00

G2ltH

mdash1

G2ltH

mdash3 00 00G00H G25H G26H

$eploampe$t rate 00 93 102 00 00G00H G59H G60H

Bere$t falampheae househol 02 33lt 39 0lt 0ltG00H G55H G56H

Su 06 06

ow$loae fro20082312


S25



LlasttampjusteLlasttamp wth espet Aata wth espet

Aepe$e$t Iarable )o$trols se to )tamp Se to )tamp SeR

1 7og serous res per apta o$e 18 25G02H G02H

2 7og serous res per apta ego$ ues 15 233 7og serous res per apta Aeographs a$ rego$ ues 09 1lt

G02H

Affere$e Grow 2 mdash row 3H 06 0lt

oteF$ part + ol 1 shows the elastt amp of the X arable wth respet to tamp se ol 2 shows the elasttamp of re wth respet to the X arable a$ ol shows the prout that represe$ts that porto$ of the retamp se elasttamp that s assoate wth the X arable

N juste for u$erreport$g of res bamp tamp se The elasttamp of the X arable wth respet to tamp se s alulate bamp regress$g X o$ logGpopulato$HR juste for u$erreport$g of res bamp tamp se )o$trols for rego$ ues a$ fes oeffe$ts o$ rego$ ues a$ $terept to be eual to oeffe$ts $ part of table 5+ regresso$s 2 a$

ow$loae fro20082312


S25





people who ght pote$tallamp be $flue$e bamp A) leels sgreater+ the$ the A) effet s greaterH

egresso$ 3 reports the seo$stage results fro our estatesa$ shows that wth our $strue$ts the oeffe$t o$ the pere$tage of fealeheae househols s basallamp u$ha$ge Thsshoul $ot be $terprete as ea$$g that the pere$tage of feale heae househols a$ be see$ as a$ eoge$ous arableThs ar able+ a$ our $strue$ts+ aamp be orrelate wth other relate ur ba$ pathologes Gperhaps the la= of stro$g soalsa$to$sH that are atuallamp r$g the results The $strue$talarables estates suggest o$lamp that our results o $ot oe about

beause of reerse ausaltamp theamp o $ot el$ate the possbltamp

of relate otte ar ablesegresso$ ajusts the re rate ata for u$erreport$g

)o$ troll$g for the eographs $ ths ase reues theo$$eto$ betwee$ tamp se a$ the re rate bamp 29 pere$t O$ereaso$ whamp the reuto$ s lower s that we are orret$g for u$erreport$g $ larger tes+ but we are $ot o$troll$g for a$amp

possble etra u$ erreport$g $ tes wth a hgher pere$tage of s$glepare$t fa les

Table 6 shows the separate effet of $lu$g eah arable o$

the o$$eto$ betwee$ re a$ tamp se The ete$t to whhtampleel eographs epla$ the aou$t of re shoul $ot

be surprs$g ll of the effet oes fro o$troll$g for the shareof househols that hae a feale hea The oerall effet of thsfore appears to be 0lt The $et total effet of tampleel o$trols s06

IConclusion

Table lt suares the results of ths eerse $ all ases+ we useata ajuste for u$erreport$g $ the frst row of the table+ we

beg$ wth the raw elasttamp to be epla$e $ the seo$ a$thr

rows+ we $estgate the porta$e of lower arrest rates $ tes $ both ases+ we use a alue of mdash10 for c

-he$ we use the7ett estate of 2 for c

+ eterre$e epla$s 833 pere$t of

the tamp re o$$eto$ -he$ we use the hgher elasttampof 5+ eterre$e epla$s 208 pere$t of the tampre o$$eto$

$ the fourth a$ ffth rows+ we show the estate porta$eof hgher retur$s to re $ tes $ both ases+ we use a alue of 11 Gwaamp betwee$ the ) a$ the )IS estatesH a$ aalue of 15 for BC -he$ we use a$ estate of 2 for c

+

hgher re tur$s to re epla$ 1333 pere$t of the tampreo$$eto$ -he$ we use the hgher elasttamp of 5+ eterre$eepla$s o$e thr of the tampre o$$eto$ $ualharatersts epla$

N



re $ tes S253

T7L lt

plee$t$g the Aeoposto$

Bere$tage of )tamp Se)re

)o$$eto$ Lpla$eLffet bamp Lffet

$tal tamp sere o$$eto$ 2Lffet of eterre$e

= mdash2

= mdash5Lffet of peu$aramp retur$s

= mdash2

= mdash5

Lffet of tamp oposto$$epla$e tamp sere o$$eto$

= mdash2

= mdash5

SoureFow 1 table 2+ regresso$ 2 row 2 7ett G1998bH a$ table 3 row 3 Lhrlh G19lt3H a$ table3 rows a$ 5 table a$ tet row 6 table 6 rows lt a$ 8 resual tamp sere effet

292 pere$t of the tampre effet s$g the hgher estate of

+ we epla$ 8333 pere$t of the tampre o$$eto$ s$g the

ore o$serate estate of c

+ we epla$ slghtlamp ore tha$o$e half of the urba$re preuO$e praramp po$t of ths paper s that ee$ though lass eter

re$e a$ retur$s to re epla$ato$s of the leel of re areporta$t $ epla$$g the urba$ re preu+ other arablesGpartularlamp falamp strutureH also atter t s hope that futureresearh wll fous ore o$ u$ersta$$g the l$= betwee$feale heae househols a$ re a$ also o$ u$ersta$$gwhamp tes hae so a$amp s$glepare$t fales $ partular+ twoul be alu able to =$ow whether urba$ e$ro$e$ts just

attrat these fales or whether urba$ e$ro$e$ts atuallampreate ore s$glepare$t fales

Appendi$ A

Description of Data Sets

National Crime Survey

The ato$al )re Itato$ Sureamp s a$ o$go$g sureamp a$stere

bamp the Aeparte$t of Justes ureau of Juste Statsts2lt The org$sof the sureamp a$ be trae ba= to the Brese$ts )osso$ o$ 7aw

2lt $forato$ $ ths seto$ s ta=e$ fro the oeboo=s a$ abstrats froS Aeparte$t of Juste G1991H

02 833

05 208

032 1333

080 3333

0lt 292

91166lt




L$foree$t a$ the $strato$ of Juste+ pa$ele $ 1965 tthat te t was reog$e that est$g easures of re fouse o$o$lamp those res atuallamp reporte to the pole a$ that ore

oprehe$se $for ato$ oul be useful to law e$foree$t offalsa$ soal se$tsts The three praramp objetes of the )IS are togather etale $fora to$ about the ts a$ o$seue$es of re+ to estate the propor to$ of res that are $ot reporte to the

pole+ a$ to pert opar so$s oer te ao$g areasThe )IS s a stuamp of perso$al a$ househol tato$ The

sureamp s a$stere bamp $terewers who st househols throughoutthe ou$ tramp a$ $terew eah perso$ $ the househol who s oer theage of 12 GBho$e $terews aamp also be use for followup sureampsH$terewers frst a$ster the as Sree$ Questo$$ares to allhousehol ebers 12 ampears of age or oler These uesto$s gather $forato$ about the hara tersts of the respo$e$t a$ thehousehol The uesto$s the$ reuest $forato$ o$ whether or $ot a$ampres were otte aga$st the re spo$e$t or a$amp ebers of thehousehol $ the pree$g s o$ths The sureamp oers the follow$gtamppes of res G$lu$g atteptsH rape+ robberamp+ assault+ burglaramp+lare$amp+ a$ auto theft Other res suh as urer+ shoplft$g+ a$llegal gabl$g o $ot ft wth$ the sureamps tato$ fraewor= a$ are elue

f the househol or a$amp $ual has bee$ te+ the $terewer wll as= the uesto$s o$ the )re $e$t eport O$e suh report sae for eah re The report gathers etale $forato$ o$ the re$lu$g Gbut $ot lte toH te a$ plae of ourre$e $jures suffere eal epe$ses $urre age+ rae+ a$ se of offe$erGsH a$relato$shp of offe$ers to t The ureau of Juste Statsts has

per fore a $uber of tests a$ plots to ae the auraamp of the re spo$ses $ partular+ the te frae of s o$ths Ge+ as=$gwhether or $ot the respo$e$t was te $ the pree$g so$thsH was hose$ follow$g seeral pretests of peoples abltamp to reall

re $ e$ts The househols $ the saple are $terewe eeramp so$ths for three ampears a$ are the$ rotate out of the saple Toao el$$g $terest a$ ooperato$ or base respo$ses frorepeate $terew$g+ househols are $ot $terewe $ef$telamp

The )IS s $ot a$stere to a ra$o saple of the S populato$+ a$ he$e sple aerages of tato$ rates wth$ the sapleare $ot u$base estates of tato$ rates $ the $te States The

)IS o$ta$s saple weghts that are ajuste to be represe$tate of theS ault populato$ -e raw two saples fro the )IS ata $ both

ases we ta=e o$lamp those ata that oe fro heas of househols -e belee that ths $reases the auraamp of report$g a$ reues theha$e of ouble ou$t$g a s$gle re that ght be reporte bamp boththe hea of the househol a$ a$other falamp eber The ates of thetwo saples G1980 a$ 1989H were hose$ to be lose to the 7SY atao$ selfreports of r$al ats G1980H

Our frst saple uses the e$tre saple fro the 1989 thruarter $ter ews Ths saple o$ta$s respo$ses fro heas of househol thathae



re $ tes S255

a$ hae $ot bee$ te $ the past s o$ths -e ha 8+328 heasof househol wth $o$ss$g ata+ a$ we use these ata to ru$ probtsof KKwas a t o$ =eamp eographs $lu$g ues for tamp se

Our seo$ saple uses the $e$tleel fle fro the 1980 thruarter $terews These ata est o$lamp whe$ the hea of the househol reportethat a eber of the househol was te bamp a re These atao$ta$ etale $forato$ o$ the re $lu$g the alue of a$amp propertamp ta=e$ a$ whether or $ot the t =$ew the offe$er

Uniform Crime Re0orts

The $for )re eports are ao$g the ost welamp use a$ tesoures of ata o$ re $ the $te States28 The a$sters the

) ata The ) progra s a $ato$we ooperate effort of oer 16+000 tamp+ ou$tamp+ a$ state law e$foree$t age$es 7awe$foree$t age$es oer$g 96 pere$t of the S populato$

partpate $ the ) progra The progra was begu$ $ the 1920swhe$ the $ter$ato$al sso ato$ of Bole )hefs et to eelop au$for pla$ for report$g of res

Lah partpat$g age$amp flls out a$ subts to the o$thlampfors etal$g reports of urer+ rape+ robberamp+ assault+ burglaramp+lare$amp+ a$ auto theft The reports $lue etals o$ the re suh asa$amp weapo$s use+ whether or $ot there was forble e$tramp+ a$+ $ thease of auto theft+ the tamppe of ehle stole$ The reports also etal a$amparrests for these ate gores of re The arrest reports $lue$forato$ o$ the perso$ ar reste suh as se a$ age $allamp+ the

partpat$g age$es also subt ata o$ the $uber of fullte lawe$foree$t perso$$el

The reports the ata $ a aretamp of publato$s a$ tables or ea ple+ there are a$$ual tables bamp re for the e$tre ou$tramp Thereare also tables bamp $ual tamp a$ $ual S4S The arrest reportsare bro=e$ out bamp tamppe of re+ ge$er+ a$ age of the arreste

perso$ The ) ata are oplee$taramp to the )IS ata $ that the) ata are re statsts gathere fro the po$t of ew of lawe$foree$t age$es whereas the )IS ata are gathere fro the

po$t of ew of the ts The ) ata ou$t o$lamp res that arereporte to the pole Ths has the wea=$ess that t oes $ot easureu$reporte r$al attamp+ a$ the aou$t of u$reporte attamp

presuablamp a$ aramp welamp oer te+ bamp tamppe of re+ bamp se of tamp+a$ bamp eographs of the t oweer+ the stre$gth of the ) approah s that gather$g the ata through the pole ght $reaseauraamp beause of etale pole reports that are flle out at the te

of the report or the abltamp of the pole to flter out false or sta=e$reports )o$erselamp+ the )IS see=s to ao the $o$report$g bas bampas=$g househols retlamp whether or $ot theamp were te

Our saple of the ) s ta=e$ fro the reports aggregate bamp tamp-e hae ata for 63 tes+ whh are the S tes wth populato$s

greater

28 $forato$ $ ths seto$ s ta=e$ fro arous ssues of the s Crime inthe United States




tha$ 25+000 for whh we hae oplete ata The ampear 1982 was hose$to be lose to the ampear for whh we hae the selfreports of r$al attamp$ the 7SY G1980H -e too= ) ata o$ res+ arrests+ a$ alue ta=e$

per re a$ erge these wth ata fro the County and City DataBooamp + aggregate fro e$sus ata+ o$ta$$g eograph $forato$for eah tamp

National +ongitudinal Survey of $outh

The ato$al 7o$gtu$al Sureamp of Youth s o$e of the ato$al7o$gtu $al Sureamps spo$sore bamp the ureau of 7abor Statsts+ SAeparte$t of 7abor29 These sureamps ta=e a ohort of era$s a$

follow the e bers of the ohort oer te to lear$ about the eberslabor ar=et epere$es+ plaes of rese$e+ euato$+ hlre$+ a$a$amp other tes of $terest The 7SY ata urre$tlamp aalable areta=e$ fro a ohort of e$ a$ woe$ who were age 122 $ 19lt9There are 12+686 people $ ths ohort 6+111 of the ohort were hose$ to

be a represe$tate saple of ampou$g people l$g $ the $te States $19lt9+ a$ a$ ato$al 5+295 are the KKpoertamp oersaple+ whh sesg$e to oersaple eo$o allamp saa$tage ampouth $allamp+there s a ltaramp oersaple of 1+280 ampouth who were age 1lt21 $19lt9 a$ who were e$lste $ the four bra$hes of the ltaramp at that

teLah te the ohort s sureampe+ soe uesto$s are ha$ge a$soe uesto$s are e $to the sureamp The 1980 sureamp o$ta$e alarge $uber of uesto$s o$ llegal attamp+ $lu$g res otte+$ oe fro llegal attamp+ llegal rug use+ a$ o$tat wth the

pole -e use these selfreports of r$al attamp as the epe$e$tarables $ our a$alampss $ partular+ we ru$ probts for whether or $ot the respo$e$t reports ha$g stole$ propertamp worth less tha$ E50$ the past ampear a$ whether or $ot the respo$e$t reports ha$g foughtat wor= or shool $ the past ampear -e loo= at sall thefts for two

reaso$s rst+ we belee that people aamp be ore l=elamp to auratelampselfreport $or res tha$ a jor o$es Seo$+ for e$tfato$ wewa$te to ea$e a re that a $o$tral $uber of respo$e$ts atott$g -e hae about +000 obserato$s for whh we hae boththe respo$se to KKstole$ soeth$g less tha$ E50 a$ the regressors suhas S4S$o$S4S+ age+ falamp $tat+ rae+ others euato$+ a$ soforth $etee$ pere$t of our saple reports ha$g stole$ soeth$gworth less tha$ E50 $ the past ampear

References

rher+ Aa$e+ a$ gtart$er+ osearamp 1iolence and Crime in Cross2National ers0ective ew ae$+ )o$$ Yale $ Bress+ 198

e=er+ gtaramp S KK)re a$ Bu$she$t $ Lo$o pproah Elt6 G4arh prl 1968H 169 21lt

29 $forato$ $ ths seto$ s ta=e$ fro the ureau of 7abor Statsts webste+ statsblsgo






4lgra+ Sta$leamp KKThe Lpere$e of 7$g $ )tes Science 16ltG4arh 13+ 19lt0H 16168

Bre$$e+ e$r edieval Cities3 6heir 4rigins and the

Revival of 6radeBr$eto$+ J Br$eto$ $ Bress+ 1929

But$a+ obert A aamping Democracy 8oramp3 Civic 6raditions inodern (taly

Br$eto$+ J Br$eto$ $ Bress+ 1993a$ow+ 7eo$+ a$ -olfga$g+ 4ar$ L+ es Crime and ustice 2

e ew Yor= as oo=s+ 19ltltShhor+ Aa Ae=er+ Aa 7 a$ Ore$+ obert 4 KKBopulato$

Ae$stamp a$ )r$al Itato$ Soe $epete $$gs $ )e$tral )tes Criminology 1lt Gugust 19lt9H 189lt

Spela$+ -lla Criminal (nca0acitation ew Yor= Ble$u Bress+ 199Taamplor+ Joh$ KKLo$oetr 4oels of )r$al ehaor eew $

Economic odels of Criminal Behavior + ete bamp J 4 e$e=estera

ortholla$+ 19lt8S Aeparte$t of Juste ureau of Juste Statsts National Crime

Sur2 veys3 National Sam0le 9lt=9gt )oputer fle th e$$ rbor+ 4h $teru$erstamp )o$sortu Bolt a$ So es+1991

-esto$+ Baul + a$ -ells+ e$$eth 4 Criminal (nvestigation3 Basicers0ec2 tives L$glewoo )lffs+ J Bre$teall+ 199

-lso$+ Jaes Q+ a$ err$ste$+ har J Crime and Human

Nature ew Yor= So$ a$ Shuster+ 1985-rth+ 7ous KKrba$s as a -aamp of 7fe American Sociology G

Julamp 1938H 12




Why Is There More Crime inCities

Edward L GlaeserHarvard University and National Bureau of Economic Research

Bruce SacerdoteDartmouth College

)re rates are uh hgher $ bg tes tha$ $ ether salltes or rural areas Ths paper epla$s ths o$$eto$ bamp us$g

t ato$ ata+ ee$e fro the 7SY o$ r$al behaor+ a$ the $for )re eports gher peu$aramp be$efts for re $ large tes a$ epla$ at ost o$euarter of the o$$eto$ betwee$ tamp se a$ re rates 7ower

probabltes of arrest a$ a lower probabltamp of reog$to$ arefeatures of urba$ lfe+ but these fators see to epla$ at osto$effth of the urba$ re effet etwee$ o$ethr a$ o$ehalf of the urba$ effet o$ re a$ be epla$e bamp the

prese$e of ore fealeheae house hols $ tes

Introduction

or$g to the 199 Statistical Abstract of the United Statesetropol ta$ areas hae lt9 pere$t ore ole$t res tha$ other era$ tes a$ 300 pere$t ore ole$e tha$ rural areas

ew Yor= a$ 7os $geles hae re rates that are approatelampfour tes hgher tha$ the re rates of etropolta$ areas as a

whole a$ hae ole$t re rates that are ore tha$ 25 testhe ole$t

Ths paper was wrtte$ for the raser $sttute o$fere$e for gtaramp e=ers65th brthaamp -e both tha$= the ato$al Se$e ou$ato$ for f$a$alsupport Saerote tha$=s the Jaob Jats ellowshp progra Aa )utler+e$ja$ rea$+ )laua gtol$+ 7arramp at+ Stee$ 7ett+ $$ Behl+ a$har Bos$er proe helpful oe$ts

C ournal of olitical Economy + 1999+ ol 10lt+ $o 6+ pt 2D983209 1999 bamp The $erstamp of )hago ll rghts resere 00223808 1999 10lt06S0013E0250

S225














re $ tes S22lt



















Aepe$e$t )hlre$GA)H










re $ tes S229



A Decomposition















A = GB

AHGpart A

partBH


=

= part

C

B


to f$c

B B X

N = c c N




retur$s N



N


c X





pro$e $ualsM




Data Sources



B



re $ tes S231












se The )IS e$





T7L 1


1989 )IS AataN

ll

GN = 8+328H o$S4S GN =1+929H

S4S

GN = 6+399H



la= 10 0lt 11G30H G25H G31H

spa$ 0lt 0 0lt




7SY AataN

ll o$S4S S4S

GN = 9+15H GN = 2+8lt2H GN = 6+2lt3H

ge 2036 2029 200G222H G221H G223H

S4S 69 0 1G6H G00H G00H




N = 633





G08HBopulato$ 1982 116+852

G33+666H


15



re $ tes S233












shows that the




T7L 2


Aepe$e$t Iarable







G02H)tamp populato$

1+0009+999 01G01H

10+0002+999 0G01H

25+0009+999 06G02H

50+00099+999 09G02H

100+00029+999 11G02H

250+00099+999 09G02H

500+000999+999 15G03H

1+000+000 16G03H


ow$loae fro20082312


ego$al ues $lueM

R 2

ampes

20

ampes

29

ampes

29

ampes





re $ tes S235














c

N













re $ tes S23lt










log(arrests i +

= α


+ c + G3H

i i +





rei +


















T7L 3


Aepe$e$t Iarable

) Aata

7og juste



ow$loae fro20082312


7og rrests per )re

rrests per )re

7og BoleOffers per

)apta

)IS AataBole Ist





mdash01





















paper Ggtlaeser a$





re $ tes S21


NB C

cB















re $ the tamp



B B C+ where c

s thesae

N



















re s greater wth

21







re $ tes S23






P

P N







d log =

part log +)

part log sdot

part X=

part log +

) c X

d logN

part log

N

partX part logN

part log

N

X c N+ GH









10+0002+999G10H

mdash06

G10H

mdash05

G001ltH



50+00099+999 1 16 0052G12H G12H G0036H


250+00099+999 21 22 0013G1H G1H G0029H

500+000999+999 21 2 0029G1H G1H G0035H

Š 1 000 000 9 88 0055G12H G13H G00H




S2

ow$loae fro20082312



























re $ tes S2lt

















T7L 5

)tes a$ )haratersts


Stole$ Bropertamp

ltE50 $ Bast Year

G1H G2H G3H

S4S 030 060 02ltG010H G01H G015H






4ale 126 12lt 10ltG008H G008H G013H





QT sore 001 001 001G000H G000H G000H





G01H

mdash009G009H










S28



T7L 5 GContinued H

) a$ )IS

Aepe$e$t Iarable


It of a)re

)apta GN =63H























S29



T7L 6


63H

Aepe$e$t Iarable

Llasttampth


o$ )tamp Se a$


Se a$







mdash00

G2ltH

mdash1

G2ltH




Su 06 06

ow$loae fro20082312


S25







G02H




ow$loae fro20082312


S25














IConclusion








+


N



re $ tes S253

T7L lt





= mdash2


= mdash2

= mdash5


= mdash2

= mdash5








Appendi$ A






02 833

05 208

032 1333

080 3333

0lt 292

91166lt

















re $ tes S255















greater














References























Julamp 1938H 12














re $ tes S22lt



















Aepe$e$t )hlre$GA)H










re $ tes S229



A Decomposition















A = GB

AHGpart A

partBH


=

= part

C

B


to f$c

B B X

N = c c N




retur$s N



N


c X





pro$e $ualsM




Data Sources



B



re $ tes S231












se The )IS e$





T7L 1


1989 )IS AataN

ll

GN = 8+328H o$S4S GN =1+929H

S4S

GN = 6+399H



la= 10 0lt 11G30H G25H G31H

spa$ 0lt 0 0lt




7SY AataN

ll o$S4S S4S

GN = 9+15H GN = 2+8lt2H GN = 6+2lt3H

ge 2036 2029 200G222H G221H G223H

S4S 69 0 1G6H G00H G00H




N = 633





G08HBopulato$ 1982 116+852

G33+666H


15



re $ tes S233












shows that the




T7L 2


Aepe$e$t Iarable







G02H)tamp populato$

1+0009+999 01G01H

10+0002+999 0G01H

25+0009+999 06G02H

50+00099+999 09G02H

100+00029+999 11G02H

250+00099+999 09G02H

500+000999+999 15G03H

1+000+000 16G03H


ow$loae fro20082312


ego$al ues $lueM

R 2

ampes

20

ampes

29

ampes

29

ampes





re $ tes S235














c

N













re $ tes S23lt










log(arrests i +

= α


+ c + G3H

i i +





rei +


















T7L 3


Aepe$e$t Iarable

) Aata

7og juste



ow$loae fro20082312


7og rrests per )re

rrests per )re

7og BoleOffers per

)apta

)IS AataBole Ist





mdash01





















paper Ggtlaeser a$





re $ tes S21


NB C

cB















re $ the tamp



B B C+ where c

s thesae

N



















re s greater wth

21







re $ tes S23






P

P N







d log =

part log +)

part log sdot

part X=

part log +

) c X

d logN

part log

N

partX part logN

part log

N

X c N+ GH









10+0002+999G10H

mdash06

G10H

mdash05

G001ltH



50+00099+999 1 16 0052G12H G12H G0036H


250+00099+999 21 22 0013G1H G1H G0029H

500+000999+999 21 2 0029G1H G1H G0035H

Š 1 000 000 9 88 0055G12H G13H G00H




S2

ow$loae fro20082312



























re $ tes S2lt

















T7L 5

)tes a$ )haratersts


Stole$ Bropertamp

ltE50 $ Bast Year

G1H G2H G3H

S4S 030 060 02ltG010H G01H G015H






4ale 126 12lt 10ltG008H G008H G013H





QT sore 001 001 001G000H G000H G000H





G01H

mdash009G009H










S28



T7L 5 GContinued H

) a$ )IS

Aepe$e$t Iarable


It of a)re

)apta GN =63H























S29



T7L 6


63H

Aepe$e$t Iarable

Llasttampth


o$ )tamp Se a$


Se a$







mdash00

G2ltH

mdash1

G2ltH




Su 06 06

ow$loae fro20082312


S25







G02H




ow$loae fro20082312


S25














IConclusion








+


N



re $ tes S253

T7L lt





= mdash2


= mdash2

= mdash5


= mdash2

= mdash5








Appendi$ A






02 833

05 208

032 1333

080 3333

0lt 292

91166lt

















re $ tes S255















greater














References























Julamp 1938H 12



re $ tes S22lt



















Aepe$e$t )hlre$GA)H










re $ tes S229



A Decomposition















A = GB

AHGpart A

partBH


=

= part

C

B


to f$c

B B X

N = c c N




retur$s N



N


c X





pro$e $ualsM




Data Sources



B



re $ tes S231












se The )IS e$





T7L 1


1989 )IS AataN

ll

GN = 8+328H o$S4S GN =1+929H

S4S

GN = 6+399H



la= 10 0lt 11G30H G25H G31H

spa$ 0lt 0 0lt




7SY AataN

ll o$S4S S4S

GN = 9+15H GN = 2+8lt2H GN = 6+2lt3H

ge 2036 2029 200G222H G221H G223H

S4S 69 0 1G6H G00H G00H




N = 633





G08HBopulato$ 1982 116+852

G33+666H


15



re $ tes S233












shows that the




T7L 2


Aepe$e$t Iarable







G02H)tamp populato$

1+0009+999 01G01H

10+0002+999 0G01H

25+0009+999 06G02H

50+00099+999 09G02H

100+00029+999 11G02H

250+00099+999 09G02H

500+000999+999 15G03H

1+000+000 16G03H


ow$loae fro20082312


ego$al ues $lueM

R 2

ampes

20

ampes

29

ampes

29

ampes





re $ tes S235














c

N













re $ tes S23lt










log(arrests i +

= α


+ c + G3H

i i +





rei +


















T7L 3


Aepe$e$t Iarable

) Aata

7og juste



ow$loae fro20082312


7og rrests per )re

rrests per )re

7og BoleOffers per

)apta

)IS AataBole Ist





mdash01





















paper Ggtlaeser a$





re $ tes S21


NB C

cB















re $ the tamp



B B C+ where c

s thesae

N



















re s greater wth

21







re $ tes S23






P

P N







d log =

part log +)

part log sdot

part X=

part log +

) c X

d logN

part log

N

partX part logN

part log

N

X c N+ GH









10+0002+999G10H

mdash06

G10H

mdash05

G001ltH



50+00099+999 1 16 0052G12H G12H G0036H


250+00099+999 21 22 0013G1H G1H G0029H

500+000999+999 21 2 0029G1H G1H G0035H

Š 1 000 000 9 88 0055G12H G13H G00H




S2

ow$loae fro20082312



























re $ tes S2lt

















T7L 5

)tes a$ )haratersts


Stole$ Bropertamp

ltE50 $ Bast Year

G1H G2H G3H

S4S 030 060 02ltG010H G01H G015H






4ale 126 12lt 10ltG008H G008H G013H





QT sore 001 001 001G000H G000H G000H





G01H

mdash009G009H










S28



T7L 5 GContinued H

) a$ )IS

Aepe$e$t Iarable


It of a)re

)apta GN =63H























S29



T7L 6


63H

Aepe$e$t Iarable

Llasttampth


o$ )tamp Se a$


Se a$







mdash00

G2ltH

mdash1

G2ltH




Su 06 06

ow$loae fro20082312


S25







G02H




ow$loae fro20082312


S25














IConclusion








+


N



re $ tes S253

T7L lt





= mdash2


= mdash2

= mdash5


= mdash2

= mdash5








Appendi$ A






02 833

05 208

032 1333

080 3333

0lt 292

91166lt

















re $ tes S255















greater














References























Julamp 1938H 12










Aepe$e$t )hlre$GA)H










re $ tes S229



A Decomposition















A = GB

AHGpart A

partBH


=

= part

C

B


to f$c

B B X

N = c c N




retur$s N



N


c X





pro$e $ualsM




Data Sources



B



re $ tes S231












se The )IS e$





T7L 1


1989 )IS AataN

ll

GN = 8+328H o$S4S GN =1+929H

S4S

GN = 6+399H



la= 10 0lt 11G30H G25H G31H

spa$ 0lt 0 0lt




7SY AataN

ll o$S4S S4S

GN = 9+15H GN = 2+8lt2H GN = 6+2lt3H

ge 2036 2029 200G222H G221H G223H

S4S 69 0 1G6H G00H G00H




N = 633





G08HBopulato$ 1982 116+852

G33+666H


15



re $ tes S233












shows that the




T7L 2


Aepe$e$t Iarable







G02H)tamp populato$

1+0009+999 01G01H

10+0002+999 0G01H

25+0009+999 06G02H

50+00099+999 09G02H

100+00029+999 11G02H

250+00099+999 09G02H

500+000999+999 15G03H

1+000+000 16G03H


ow$loae fro20082312


ego$al ues $lueM

R 2

ampes

20

ampes

29

ampes

29

ampes





re $ tes S235














c

N













re $ tes S23lt










log(arrests i +

= α


+ c + G3H

i i +





rei +


















T7L 3


Aepe$e$t Iarable

) Aata

7og juste



ow$loae fro20082312


7og rrests per )re

rrests per )re

7og BoleOffers per

)apta

)IS AataBole Ist





mdash01





















paper Ggtlaeser a$





re $ tes S21


NB C

cB















re $ the tamp



B B C+ where c

s thesae

N



















re s greater wth

21







re $ tes S23






P

P N







d log =

part log +)

part log sdot

part X=

part log +

) c X

d logN

part log

N

partX part logN

part log

N

X c N+ GH









10+0002+999G10H

mdash06

G10H

mdash05

G001ltH



50+00099+999 1 16 0052G12H G12H G0036H


250+00099+999 21 22 0013G1H G1H G0029H

500+000999+999 21 2 0029G1H G1H G0035H

Š 1 000 000 9 88 0055G12H G13H G00H




S2

ow$loae fro20082312



























re $ tes S2lt

















T7L 5

)tes a$ )haratersts


Stole$ Bropertamp

ltE50 $ Bast Year

G1H G2H G3H

S4S 030 060 02ltG010H G01H G015H






4ale 126 12lt 10ltG008H G008H G013H





QT sore 001 001 001G000H G000H G000H





G01H

mdash009G009H










S28



T7L 5 GContinued H

) a$ )IS

Aepe$e$t Iarable


It of a)re

)apta GN =63H























S29



T7L 6


63H

Aepe$e$t Iarable

Llasttampth


o$ )tamp Se a$


Se a$







mdash00

G2ltH

mdash1

G2ltH




Su 06 06

ow$loae fro20082312


S25







G02H




ow$loae fro20082312


S25














IConclusion








+


N



re $ tes S253

T7L lt





= mdash2


= mdash2

= mdash5


= mdash2

= mdash5








Appendi$ A






02 833

05 208

032 1333

080 3333

0lt 292

91166lt

















re $ tes S255















greater














References























Julamp 1938H 12



re $ tes S229



A Decomposition















A = GB

AHGpart A

partBH


=

= part

C

B


to f$c

B B X

N = c c N




retur$s N



N


c X





pro$e $ualsM




Data Sources



B



re $ tes S231












se The )IS e$





T7L 1


1989 )IS AataN

ll

GN = 8+328H o$S4S GN =1+929H

S4S

GN = 6+399H



la= 10 0lt 11G30H G25H G31H

spa$ 0lt 0 0lt




7SY AataN

ll o$S4S S4S

GN = 9+15H GN = 2+8lt2H GN = 6+2lt3H

ge 2036 2029 200G222H G221H G223H

S4S 69 0 1G6H G00H G00H




N = 633





G08HBopulato$ 1982 116+852

G33+666H


15



re $ tes S233












shows that the




T7L 2


Aepe$e$t Iarable







G02H)tamp populato$

1+0009+999 01G01H

10+0002+999 0G01H

25+0009+999 06G02H

50+00099+999 09G02H

100+00029+999 11G02H

250+00099+999 09G02H

500+000999+999 15G03H

1+000+000 16G03H


ow$loae fro20082312


ego$al ues $lueM

R 2

ampes

20

ampes

29

ampes

29

ampes





re $ tes S235














c

N













re $ tes S23lt










log(arrests i +

= α


+ c + G3H

i i +





rei +


















T7L 3


Aepe$e$t Iarable

) Aata

7og juste



ow$loae fro20082312


7og rrests per )re

rrests per )re

7og BoleOffers per

)apta

)IS AataBole Ist





mdash01





















paper Ggtlaeser a$





re $ tes S21


NB C

cB















re $ the tamp



B B C+ where c

s thesae

N



















re s greater wth

21







re $ tes S23






P

P N







d log =

part log +)

part log sdot

part X=

part log +

) c X

d logN

part log

N

partX part logN

part log

N

X c N+ GH









10+0002+999G10H

mdash06

G10H

mdash05

G001ltH



50+00099+999 1 16 0052G12H G12H G0036H


250+00099+999 21 22 0013G1H G1H G0029H

500+000999+999 21 2 0029G1H G1H G0035H

Š 1 000 000 9 88 0055G12H G13H G00H




S2

ow$loae fro20082312



























re $ tes S2lt

















T7L 5

)tes a$ )haratersts


Stole$ Bropertamp

ltE50 $ Bast Year

G1H G2H G3H

S4S 030 060 02ltG010H G01H G015H






4ale 126 12lt 10ltG008H G008H G013H





QT sore 001 001 001G000H G000H G000H





G01H

mdash009G009H










S28



T7L 5 GContinued H

) a$ )IS

Aepe$e$t Iarable


It of a)re

)apta GN =63H























S29



T7L 6


63H

Aepe$e$t Iarable

Llasttampth


o$ )tamp Se a$


Se a$







mdash00

G2ltH

mdash1

G2ltH




Su 06 06

ow$loae fro20082312


S25







G02H




ow$loae fro20082312


S25














IConclusion








+


N



re $ tes S253

T7L lt





= mdash2


= mdash2

= mdash5


= mdash2

= mdash5








Appendi$ A






02 833

05 208

032 1333

080 3333

0lt 292

91166lt

















re $ tes S255















greater














References























Julamp 1938H 12






A = GB

AHGpart A

partBH


=

= part

C

B


to f$c

B B X

N = c c N




retur$s N



N


c X





pro$e $ualsM




Data Sources



B



re $ tes S231












se The )IS e$





T7L 1


1989 )IS AataN

ll

GN = 8+328H o$S4S GN =1+929H

S4S

GN = 6+399H



la= 10 0lt 11G30H G25H G31H

spa$ 0lt 0 0lt




7SY AataN

ll o$S4S S4S

GN = 9+15H GN = 2+8lt2H GN = 6+2lt3H

ge 2036 2029 200G222H G221H G223H

S4S 69 0 1G6H G00H G00H




N = 633





G08HBopulato$ 1982 116+852

G33+666H


15



re $ tes S233












shows that the




T7L 2


Aepe$e$t Iarable







G02H)tamp populato$

1+0009+999 01G01H

10+0002+999 0G01H

25+0009+999 06G02H

50+00099+999 09G02H

100+00029+999 11G02H

250+00099+999 09G02H

500+000999+999 15G03H

1+000+000 16G03H


ow$loae fro20082312


ego$al ues $lueM

R 2

ampes

20

ampes

29

ampes

29

ampes





re $ tes S235














c

N













re $ tes S23lt










log(arrests i +

= α


+ c + G3H

i i +





rei +


















T7L 3


Aepe$e$t Iarable

) Aata

7og juste



ow$loae fro20082312


7og rrests per )re

rrests per )re

7og BoleOffers per

)apta

)IS AataBole Ist





mdash01





















paper Ggtlaeser a$





re $ tes S21


NB C

cB















re $ the tamp



B B C+ where c

s thesae

N



















re s greater wth

21







re $ tes S23






P

P N







d log =

part log +)

part log sdot

part X=

part log +

) c X

d logN

part log

N

partX part logN

part log

N

X c N+ GH









10+0002+999G10H

mdash06

G10H

mdash05

G001ltH



50+00099+999 1 16 0052G12H G12H G0036H


250+00099+999 21 22 0013G1H G1H G0029H

500+000999+999 21 2 0029G1H G1H G0035H

Š 1 000 000 9 88 0055G12H G13H G00H




S2

ow$loae fro20082312



























re $ tes S2lt

















T7L 5

)tes a$ )haratersts


Stole$ Bropertamp

ltE50 $ Bast Year

G1H G2H G3H

S4S 030 060 02ltG010H G01H G015H






4ale 126 12lt 10ltG008H G008H G013H





QT sore 001 001 001G000H G000H G000H





G01H

mdash009G009H










S28



T7L 5 GContinued H

) a$ )IS

Aepe$e$t Iarable


It of a)re

)apta GN =63H























S29



T7L 6


63H

Aepe$e$t Iarable

Llasttampth


o$ )tamp Se a$


Se a$







mdash00

G2ltH

mdash1

G2ltH




Su 06 06

ow$loae fro20082312


S25







G02H




ow$loae fro20082312


S25














IConclusion








+


N



re $ tes S253

T7L lt





= mdash2


= mdash2

= mdash5


= mdash2

= mdash5








Appendi$ A






02 833

05 208

032 1333

080 3333

0lt 292

91166lt

















re $ tes S255















greater














References























Julamp 1938H 12



re $ tes S231












se The )IS e$





T7L 1


1989 )IS AataN

ll

GN = 8+328H o$S4S GN =1+929H

S4S

GN = 6+399H



la= 10 0lt 11G30H G25H G31H

spa$ 0lt 0 0lt




7SY AataN

ll o$S4S S4S

GN = 9+15H GN = 2+8lt2H GN = 6+2lt3H

ge 2036 2029 200G222H G221H G223H

S4S 69 0 1G6H G00H G00H




N = 633





G08HBopulato$ 1982 116+852

G33+666H


15



re $ tes S233












shows that the




T7L 2


Aepe$e$t Iarable







G02H)tamp populato$

1+0009+999 01G01H

10+0002+999 0G01H

25+0009+999 06G02H

50+00099+999 09G02H

100+00029+999 11G02H

250+00099+999 09G02H

500+000999+999 15G03H

1+000+000 16G03H


ow$loae fro20082312


ego$al ues $lueM

R 2

ampes

20

ampes

29

ampes

29

ampes





re $ tes S235














c

N













re $ tes S23lt










log(arrests i +

= α


+ c + G3H

i i +





rei +


















T7L 3


Aepe$e$t Iarable

) Aata

7og juste



ow$loae fro20082312


7og rrests per )re

rrests per )re

7og BoleOffers per

)apta

)IS AataBole Ist





mdash01





















paper Ggtlaeser a$





re $ tes S21


NB C

cB















re $ the tamp



B B C+ where c

s thesae

N



















re s greater wth

21







re $ tes S23






P

P N







d log =

part log +)

part log sdot

part X=

part log +

) c X

d logN

part log

N

partX part logN

part log

N

X c N+ GH









10+0002+999G10H

mdash06

G10H

mdash05

G001ltH



50+00099+999 1 16 0052G12H G12H G0036H


250+00099+999 21 22 0013G1H G1H G0029H

500+000999+999 21 2 0029G1H G1H G0035H

Š 1 000 000 9 88 0055G12H G13H G00H




S2

ow$loae fro20082312



























re $ tes S2lt

















T7L 5

)tes a$ )haratersts


Stole$ Bropertamp

ltE50 $ Bast Year

G1H G2H G3H

S4S 030 060 02ltG010H G01H G015H






4ale 126 12lt 10ltG008H G008H G013H





QT sore 001 001 001G000H G000H G000H





G01H

mdash009G009H










S28



T7L 5 GContinued H

) a$ )IS

Aepe$e$t Iarable


It of a)re

)apta GN =63H























S29



T7L 6


63H

Aepe$e$t Iarable

Llasttampth


o$ )tamp Se a$


Se a$







mdash00

G2ltH

mdash1

G2ltH




Su 06 06

ow$loae fro20082312


S25







G02H




ow$loae fro20082312


S25














IConclusion








+


N



re $ tes S253

T7L lt





= mdash2


= mdash2

= mdash5


= mdash2

= mdash5








Appendi$ A






02 833

05 208

032 1333

080 3333

0lt 292

91166lt

















re $ tes S255















greater














References























Julamp 1938H 12



T7L 1


1989 )IS AataN

ll

GN = 8+328H o$S4S GN =1+929H

S4S

GN = 6+399H



la= 10 0lt 11G30H G25H G31H

spa$ 0lt 0 0lt




7SY AataN

ll o$S4S S4S

GN = 9+15H GN = 2+8lt2H GN = 6+2lt3H

ge 2036 2029 200G222H G221H G223H

S4S 69 0 1G6H G00H G00H




N = 633





G08HBopulato$ 1982 116+852

G33+666H


15



re $ tes S233












shows that the




T7L 2


Aepe$e$t Iarable







G02H)tamp populato$

1+0009+999 01G01H

10+0002+999 0G01H

25+0009+999 06G02H

50+00099+999 09G02H

100+00029+999 11G02H

250+00099+999 09G02H

500+000999+999 15G03H

1+000+000 16G03H


ow$loae fro20082312


ego$al ues $lueM

R 2

ampes

20

ampes

29

ampes

29

ampes





re $ tes S235














c

N













re $ tes S23lt










log(arrests i +

= α


+ c + G3H

i i +





rei +


















T7L 3


Aepe$e$t Iarable

) Aata

7og juste



ow$loae fro20082312


7og rrests per )re

rrests per )re

7og BoleOffers per

)apta

)IS AataBole Ist





mdash01





















paper Ggtlaeser a$





re $ tes S21


NB C

cB















re $ the tamp



B B C+ where c

s thesae

N



















re s greater wth

21







re $ tes S23






P

P N







d log =

part log +)

part log sdot

part X=

part log +

) c X

d logN

part log

N

partX part logN

part log

N

X c N+ GH









10+0002+999G10H

mdash06

G10H

mdash05

G001ltH



50+00099+999 1 16 0052G12H G12H G0036H


250+00099+999 21 22 0013G1H G1H G0029H

500+000999+999 21 2 0029G1H G1H G0035H

Š 1 000 000 9 88 0055G12H G13H G00H




S2

ow$loae fro20082312



























re $ tes S2lt

















T7L 5

)tes a$ )haratersts


Stole$ Bropertamp

ltE50 $ Bast Year

G1H G2H G3H

S4S 030 060 02ltG010H G01H G015H






4ale 126 12lt 10ltG008H G008H G013H





QT sore 001 001 001G000H G000H G000H





G01H

mdash009G009H










S28



T7L 5 GContinued H

) a$ )IS

Aepe$e$t Iarable


It of a)re

)apta GN =63H























S29



T7L 6


63H

Aepe$e$t Iarable

Llasttampth


o$ )tamp Se a$


Se a$







mdash00

G2ltH

mdash1

G2ltH




Su 06 06

ow$loae fro20082312


S25







G02H




ow$loae fro20082312


S25














IConclusion








+


N



re $ tes S253

T7L lt





= mdash2


= mdash2

= mdash5


= mdash2

= mdash5








Appendi$ A






02 833

05 208

032 1333

080 3333

0lt 292

91166lt

















re $ tes S255















greater














References























Julamp 1938H 12



re $ tes S233












shows that the




T7L 2


Aepe$e$t Iarable







G02H)tamp populato$

1+0009+999 01G01H

10+0002+999 0G01H

25+0009+999 06G02H

50+00099+999 09G02H

100+00029+999 11G02H

250+00099+999 09G02H

500+000999+999 15G03H

1+000+000 16G03H


ow$loae fro20082312


ego$al ues $lueM

R 2

ampes

20

ampes

29

ampes

29

ampes





re $ tes S235














c

N













re $ tes S23lt










log(arrests i +

= α


+ c + G3H

i i +





rei +


















T7L 3


Aepe$e$t Iarable

) Aata

7og juste



ow$loae fro20082312


7og rrests per )re

rrests per )re

7og BoleOffers per

)apta

)IS AataBole Ist





mdash01





















paper Ggtlaeser a$





re $ tes S21


NB C

cB















re $ the tamp



B B C+ where c

s thesae

N



















re s greater wth

21







re $ tes S23






P

P N







d log =

part log +)

part log sdot

part X=

part log +

) c X

d logN

part log

N

partX part logN

part log

N

X c N+ GH









10+0002+999G10H

mdash06

G10H

mdash05

G001ltH



50+00099+999 1 16 0052G12H G12H G0036H


250+00099+999 21 22 0013G1H G1H G0029H

500+000999+999 21 2 0029G1H G1H G0035H

Š 1 000 000 9 88 0055G12H G13H G00H




S2

ow$loae fro20082312



























re $ tes S2lt

















T7L 5

)tes a$ )haratersts


Stole$ Bropertamp

ltE50 $ Bast Year

G1H G2H G3H

S4S 030 060 02ltG010H G01H G015H






4ale 126 12lt 10ltG008H G008H G013H





QT sore 001 001 001G000H G000H G000H





G01H

mdash009G009H










S28



T7L 5 GContinued H

) a$ )IS

Aepe$e$t Iarable


It of a)re

)apta GN =63H























S29



T7L 6


63H

Aepe$e$t Iarable

Llasttampth


o$ )tamp Se a$


Se a$







mdash00

G2ltH

mdash1

G2ltH




Su 06 06

ow$loae fro20082312


S25







G02H




ow$loae fro20082312


S25














IConclusion








+


N



re $ tes S253

T7L lt





= mdash2


= mdash2

= mdash5


= mdash2

= mdash5








Appendi$ A






02 833

05 208

032 1333

080 3333

0lt 292

91166lt

















re $ tes S255















greater














References























Julamp 1938H 12



T7L 2


Aepe$e$t Iarable







G02H)tamp populato$

1+0009+999 01G01H

10+0002+999 0G01H

25+0009+999 06G02H

50+00099+999 09G02H

100+00029+999 11G02H

250+00099+999 09G02H

500+000999+999 15G03H

1+000+000 16G03H


ow$loae fro20082312


ego$al ues $lueM

R 2

ampes

20

ampes

29

ampes

29

ampes





re $ tes S235














c

N













re $ tes S23lt










log(arrests i +

= α


+ c + G3H

i i +





rei +


















T7L 3


Aepe$e$t Iarable

) Aata

7og juste



ow$loae fro20082312


7og rrests per )re

rrests per )re

7og BoleOffers per

)apta

)IS AataBole Ist





mdash01





















paper Ggtlaeser a$





re $ tes S21


NB C

cB















re $ the tamp



B B C+ where c

s thesae

N



















re s greater wth

21







re $ tes S23






P

P N







d log =

part log +)

part log sdot

part X=

part log +

) c X

d logN

part log

N

partX part logN

part log

N

X c N+ GH









10+0002+999G10H

mdash06

G10H

mdash05

G001ltH



50+00099+999 1 16 0052G12H G12H G0036H


250+00099+999 21 22 0013G1H G1H G0029H

500+000999+999 21 2 0029G1H G1H G0035H

Š 1 000 000 9 88 0055G12H G13H G00H




S2

ow$loae fro20082312



























re $ tes S2lt

















T7L 5

)tes a$ )haratersts


Stole$ Bropertamp

ltE50 $ Bast Year

G1H G2H G3H

S4S 030 060 02ltG010H G01H G015H






4ale 126 12lt 10ltG008H G008H G013H





QT sore 001 001 001G000H G000H G000H





G01H

mdash009G009H










S28



T7L 5 GContinued H

) a$ )IS

Aepe$e$t Iarable


It of a)re

)apta GN =63H























S29



T7L 6


63H

Aepe$e$t Iarable

Llasttampth


o$ )tamp Se a$


Se a$







mdash00

G2ltH

mdash1

G2ltH




Su 06 06

ow$loae fro20082312


S25







G02H




ow$loae fro20082312


S25














IConclusion








+


N



re $ tes S253

T7L lt





= mdash2


= mdash2

= mdash5


= mdash2

= mdash5








Appendi$ A






02 833

05 208

032 1333

080 3333

0lt 292

91166lt

















re $ tes S255















greater














References























Julamp 1938H 12




re $ tes S235














c

N













re $ tes S23lt










log(arrests i +

= α


+ c + G3H

i i +





rei +


















T7L 3


Aepe$e$t Iarable

) Aata

7og juste



ow$loae fro20082312


7og rrests per )re

rrests per )re

7og BoleOffers per

)apta

)IS AataBole Ist





mdash01





















paper Ggtlaeser a$





re $ tes S21


NB C

cB















re $ the tamp



B B C+ where c

s thesae

N



















re s greater wth

21







re $ tes S23






P

P N







d log =

part log +)

part log sdot

part X=

part log +

) c X

d logN

part log

N

partX part logN

part log

N

X c N+ GH









10+0002+999G10H

mdash06

G10H

mdash05

G001ltH



50+00099+999 1 16 0052G12H G12H G0036H


250+00099+999 21 22 0013G1H G1H G0029H

500+000999+999 21 2 0029G1H G1H G0035H

Š 1 000 000 9 88 0055G12H G13H G00H




S2

ow$loae fro20082312



























re $ tes S2lt

















T7L 5

)tes a$ )haratersts


Stole$ Bropertamp

ltE50 $ Bast Year

G1H G2H G3H

S4S 030 060 02ltG010H G01H G015H






4ale 126 12lt 10ltG008H G008H G013H





QT sore 001 001 001G000H G000H G000H





G01H

mdash009G009H










S28



T7L 5 GContinued H

) a$ )IS

Aepe$e$t Iarable


It of a)re

)apta GN =63H























S29



T7L 6


63H

Aepe$e$t Iarable

Llasttampth


o$ )tamp Se a$


Se a$







mdash00

G2ltH

mdash1

G2ltH




Su 06 06

ow$loae fro20082312


S25







G02H




ow$loae fro20082312


S25














IConclusion








+


N



re $ tes S253

T7L lt





= mdash2


= mdash2

= mdash5


= mdash2

= mdash5








Appendi$ A






02 833

05 208

032 1333

080 3333

0lt 292

91166lt

















re $ tes S255















greater














References























Julamp 1938H 12




c

N













re $ tes S23lt










log(arrests i +

= α


+ c + G3H

i i +





rei +


















T7L 3


Aepe$e$t Iarable

) Aata

7og juste



ow$loae fro20082312


7og rrests per )re

rrests per )re

7og BoleOffers per

)apta

)IS AataBole Ist





mdash01





















paper Ggtlaeser a$





re $ tes S21


NB C

cB















re $ the tamp



B B C+ where c

s thesae

N



















re s greater wth

21







re $ tes S23






P

P N







d log =

part log +)

part log sdot

part X=

part log +

) c X

d logN

part log

N

partX part logN

part log

N

X c N+ GH









10+0002+999G10H

mdash06

G10H

mdash05

G001ltH



50+00099+999 1 16 0052G12H G12H G0036H


250+00099+999 21 22 0013G1H G1H G0029H

500+000999+999 21 2 0029G1H G1H G0035H

Š 1 000 000 9 88 0055G12H G13H G00H




S2

ow$loae fro20082312



























re $ tes S2lt

















T7L 5

)tes a$ )haratersts


Stole$ Bropertamp

ltE50 $ Bast Year

G1H G2H G3H

S4S 030 060 02ltG010H G01H G015H






4ale 126 12lt 10ltG008H G008H G013H





QT sore 001 001 001G000H G000H G000H





G01H

mdash009G009H










S28



T7L 5 GContinued H

) a$ )IS

Aepe$e$t Iarable


It of a)re

)apta GN =63H























S29



T7L 6


63H

Aepe$e$t Iarable

Llasttampth


o$ )tamp Se a$


Se a$







mdash00

G2ltH

mdash1

G2ltH




Su 06 06

ow$loae fro20082312


S25







G02H




ow$loae fro20082312


S25














IConclusion








+


N



re $ tes S253

T7L lt





= mdash2


= mdash2

= mdash5


= mdash2

= mdash5








Appendi$ A






02 833

05 208

032 1333

080 3333

0lt 292

91166lt

















re $ tes S255















greater














References























Julamp 1938H 12



re $ tes S23lt










log(arrests i +

= α


+ c + G3H

i i +





rei +


















T7L 3


Aepe$e$t Iarable

) Aata

7og juste



ow$loae fro20082312


7og rrests per )re

rrests per )re

7og BoleOffers per

)apta

)IS AataBole Ist





mdash01





















paper Ggtlaeser a$





re $ tes S21


NB C

cB















re $ the tamp



B B C+ where c

s thesae

N



















re s greater wth

21







re $ tes S23






P

P N







d log =

part log +)

part log sdot

part X=

part log +

) c X

d logN

part log

N

partX part logN

part log

N

X c N+ GH









10+0002+999G10H

mdash06

G10H

mdash05

G001ltH



50+00099+999 1 16 0052G12H G12H G0036H


250+00099+999 21 22 0013G1H G1H G0029H

500+000999+999 21 2 0029G1H G1H G0035H

Š 1 000 000 9 88 0055G12H G13H G00H




S2

ow$loae fro20082312



























re $ tes S2lt

















T7L 5

)tes a$ )haratersts


Stole$ Bropertamp

ltE50 $ Bast Year

G1H G2H G3H

S4S 030 060 02ltG010H G01H G015H






4ale 126 12lt 10ltG008H G008H G013H





QT sore 001 001 001G000H G000H G000H





G01H

mdash009G009H










S28



T7L 5 GContinued H

) a$ )IS

Aepe$e$t Iarable


It of a)re

)apta GN =63H























S29



T7L 6


63H

Aepe$e$t Iarable

Llasttampth


o$ )tamp Se a$


Se a$







mdash00

G2ltH

mdash1

G2ltH




Su 06 06

ow$loae fro20082312


S25







G02H




ow$loae fro20082312


S25














IConclusion








+


N



re $ tes S253

T7L lt





= mdash2


= mdash2

= mdash5


= mdash2

= mdash5








Appendi$ A






02 833

05 208

032 1333

080 3333

0lt 292

91166lt

















re $ tes S255















greater














References























Julamp 1938H 12


















T7L 3


Aepe$e$t Iarable

) Aata

7og juste



ow$loae fro20082312


7og rrests per )re

rrests per )re

7og BoleOffers per

)apta

)IS AataBole Ist





mdash01





















paper Ggtlaeser a$





re $ tes S21


NB C

cB















re $ the tamp



B B C+ where c

s thesae

N



















re s greater wth

21







re $ tes S23






P

P N







d log =

part log +)

part log sdot

part X=

part log +

) c X

d logN

part log

N

partX part logN

part log

N

X c N+ GH









10+0002+999G10H

mdash06

G10H

mdash05

G001ltH



50+00099+999 1 16 0052G12H G12H G0036H


250+00099+999 21 22 0013G1H G1H G0029H

500+000999+999 21 2 0029G1H G1H G0035H

Š 1 000 000 9 88 0055G12H G13H G00H




S2

ow$loae fro20082312



























re $ tes S2lt

















T7L 5

)tes a$ )haratersts


Stole$ Bropertamp

ltE50 $ Bast Year

G1H G2H G3H

S4S 030 060 02ltG010H G01H G015H






4ale 126 12lt 10ltG008H G008H G013H





QT sore 001 001 001G000H G000H G000H





G01H

mdash009G009H










S28



T7L 5 GContinued H

) a$ )IS

Aepe$e$t Iarable


It of a)re

)apta GN =63H























S29



T7L 6


63H

Aepe$e$t Iarable

Llasttampth


o$ )tamp Se a$


Se a$







mdash00

G2ltH

mdash1

G2ltH




Su 06 06

ow$loae fro20082312


S25







G02H




ow$loae fro20082312


S25














IConclusion








+


N



re $ tes S253

T7L lt





= mdash2


= mdash2

= mdash5


= mdash2

= mdash5








Appendi$ A






02 833

05 208

032 1333

080 3333

0lt 292

91166lt

















re $ tes S255















greater














References























Julamp 1938H 12



T7L 3


Aepe$e$t Iarable

) Aata

7og juste



ow$loae fro20082312


7og rrests per )re

rrests per )re

7og BoleOffers per

)apta

)IS AataBole Ist





mdash01





















paper Ggtlaeser a$





re $ tes S21


NB C

cB















re $ the tamp



B B C+ where c

s thesae

N



















re s greater wth

21







re $ tes S23






P

P N







d log =

part log +)

part log sdot

part X=

part log +

) c X

d logN

part log

N

partX part logN

part log

N

X c N+ GH









10+0002+999G10H

mdash06

G10H

mdash05

G001ltH



50+00099+999 1 16 0052G12H G12H G0036H


250+00099+999 21 22 0013G1H G1H G0029H

500+000999+999 21 2 0029G1H G1H G0035H

Š 1 000 000 9 88 0055G12H G13H G00H




S2

ow$loae fro20082312



























re $ tes S2lt

















T7L 5

)tes a$ )haratersts


Stole$ Bropertamp

ltE50 $ Bast Year

G1H G2H G3H

S4S 030 060 02ltG010H G01H G015H






4ale 126 12lt 10ltG008H G008H G013H





QT sore 001 001 001G000H G000H G000H





G01H

mdash009G009H










S28



T7L 5 GContinued H

) a$ )IS

Aepe$e$t Iarable


It of a)re

)apta GN =63H























S29



T7L 6


63H

Aepe$e$t Iarable

Llasttampth


o$ )tamp Se a$


Se a$







mdash00

G2ltH

mdash1

G2ltH




Su 06 06

ow$loae fro20082312


S25







G02H




ow$loae fro20082312


S25














IConclusion








+


N



re $ tes S253

T7L lt





= mdash2


= mdash2

= mdash5


= mdash2

= mdash5








Appendi$ A






02 833

05 208

032 1333

080 3333

0lt 292

91166lt

















re $ tes S255















greater














References























Julamp 1938H 12












paper Ggtlaeser a$





re $ tes S21


NB C

cB















re $ the tamp



B B C+ where c

s thesae

N



















re s greater wth

21







re $ tes S23






P

P N







d log =

part log +)

part log sdot

part X=

part log +

) c X

d logN

part log

N

partX part logN

part log

N

X c N+ GH









10+0002+999G10H

mdash06

G10H

mdash05

G001ltH



50+00099+999 1 16 0052G12H G12H G0036H


250+00099+999 21 22 0013G1H G1H G0029H

500+000999+999 21 2 0029G1H G1H G0035H

Š 1 000 000 9 88 0055G12H G13H G00H




S2

ow$loae fro20082312



























re $ tes S2lt

















T7L 5

)tes a$ )haratersts


Stole$ Bropertamp

ltE50 $ Bast Year

G1H G2H G3H

S4S 030 060 02ltG010H G01H G015H






4ale 126 12lt 10ltG008H G008H G013H





QT sore 001 001 001G000H G000H G000H





G01H

mdash009G009H










S28



T7L 5 GContinued H

) a$ )IS

Aepe$e$t Iarable


It of a)re

)apta GN =63H























S29



T7L 6


63H

Aepe$e$t Iarable

Llasttampth


o$ )tamp Se a$


Se a$







mdash00

G2ltH

mdash1

G2ltH




Su 06 06

ow$loae fro20082312


S25







G02H




ow$loae fro20082312


S25














IConclusion








+


N



re $ tes S253

T7L lt





= mdash2


= mdash2

= mdash5


= mdash2

= mdash5








Appendi$ A






02 833

05 208

032 1333

080 3333

0lt 292

91166lt

















re $ tes S255















greater














References























Julamp 1938H 12



re $ tes S21


NB C

cB















re $ the tamp



B B C+ where c

s thesae

N



















re s greater wth

21







re $ tes S23






P

P N







d log =

part log +)

part log sdot

part X=

part log +

) c X

d logN

part log

N

partX part logN

part log

N

X c N+ GH









10+0002+999G10H

mdash06

G10H

mdash05

G001ltH



50+00099+999 1 16 0052G12H G12H G0036H


250+00099+999 21 22 0013G1H G1H G0029H

500+000999+999 21 2 0029G1H G1H G0035H

Š 1 000 000 9 88 0055G12H G13H G00H




S2

ow$loae fro20082312



























re $ tes S2lt

















T7L 5

)tes a$ )haratersts


Stole$ Bropertamp

ltE50 $ Bast Year

G1H G2H G3H

S4S 030 060 02ltG010H G01H G015H






4ale 126 12lt 10ltG008H G008H G013H





QT sore 001 001 001G000H G000H G000H





G01H

mdash009G009H










S28



T7L 5 GContinued H

) a$ )IS

Aepe$e$t Iarable


It of a)re

)apta GN =63H























S29



T7L 6


63H

Aepe$e$t Iarable

Llasttampth


o$ )tamp Se a$


Se a$







mdash00

G2ltH

mdash1

G2ltH




Su 06 06

ow$loae fro20082312


S25







G02H




ow$loae fro20082312


S25














IConclusion








+


N



re $ tes S253

T7L lt





= mdash2


= mdash2

= mdash5


= mdash2

= mdash5








Appendi$ A






02 833

05 208

032 1333

080 3333

0lt 292

91166lt

















re $ tes S255















greater














References























Julamp 1938H 12
















re s greater wth

21







re $ tes S23






P

P N







d log =

part log +)

part log sdot

part X=

part log +

) c X

d logN

part log

N

partX part logN

part log

N

X c N+ GH









10+0002+999G10H

mdash06

G10H

mdash05

G001ltH



50+00099+999 1 16 0052G12H G12H G0036H


250+00099+999 21 22 0013G1H G1H G0029H

500+000999+999 21 2 0029G1H G1H G0035H

Š 1 000 000 9 88 0055G12H G13H G00H




S2

ow$loae fro20082312



























re $ tes S2lt

















T7L 5

)tes a$ )haratersts


Stole$ Bropertamp

ltE50 $ Bast Year

G1H G2H G3H

S4S 030 060 02ltG010H G01H G015H






4ale 126 12lt 10ltG008H G008H G013H





QT sore 001 001 001G000H G000H G000H





G01H

mdash009G009H










S28



T7L 5 GContinued H

) a$ )IS

Aepe$e$t Iarable


It of a)re

)apta GN =63H























S29



T7L 6


63H

Aepe$e$t Iarable

Llasttampth


o$ )tamp Se a$


Se a$







mdash00

G2ltH

mdash1

G2ltH




Su 06 06

ow$loae fro20082312


S25







G02H




ow$loae fro20082312


S25














IConclusion








+


N



re $ tes S253

T7L lt





= mdash2


= mdash2

= mdash5


= mdash2

= mdash5








Appendi$ A






02 833

05 208

032 1333

080 3333

0lt 292

91166lt

















re $ tes S255















greater














References























Julamp 1938H 12



re $ tes S23






P

P N







d log =

part log +)

part log sdot

part X=

part log +

) c X

d logN

part log

N

partX part logN

part log

N

X c N+ GH









10+0002+999G10H

mdash06

G10H

mdash05

G001ltH



50+00099+999 1 16 0052G12H G12H G0036H


250+00099+999 21 22 0013G1H G1H G0029H

500+000999+999 21 2 0029G1H G1H G0035H

Š 1 000 000 9 88 0055G12H G13H G00H




S2

ow$loae fro20082312



























re $ tes S2lt

















T7L 5

)tes a$ )haratersts


Stole$ Bropertamp

ltE50 $ Bast Year

G1H G2H G3H

S4S 030 060 02ltG010H G01H G015H






4ale 126 12lt 10ltG008H G008H G013H





QT sore 001 001 001G000H G000H G000H





G01H

mdash009G009H










S28



T7L 5 GContinued H

) a$ )IS

Aepe$e$t Iarable


It of a)re

)apta GN =63H























S29



T7L 6


63H

Aepe$e$t Iarable

Llasttampth


o$ )tamp Se a$


Se a$







mdash00

G2ltH

mdash1

G2ltH




Su 06 06

ow$loae fro20082312


S25







G02H




ow$loae fro20082312


S25














IConclusion








+


N



re $ tes S253

T7L lt





= mdash2


= mdash2

= mdash5


= mdash2

= mdash5








Appendi$ A






02 833

05 208

032 1333

080 3333

0lt 292

91166lt

















re $ tes S255















greater














References























Julamp 1938H 12









10+0002+999G10H

mdash06

G10H

mdash05

G001ltH



50+00099+999 1 16 0052G12H G12H G0036H


250+00099+999 21 22 0013G1H G1H G0029H

500+000999+999 21 2 0029G1H G1H G0035H

Š 1 000 000 9 88 0055G12H G13H G00H




S2

ow$loae fro20082312



























re $ tes S2lt

















T7L 5

)tes a$ )haratersts


Stole$ Bropertamp

ltE50 $ Bast Year

G1H G2H G3H

S4S 030 060 02ltG010H G01H G015H






4ale 126 12lt 10ltG008H G008H G013H





QT sore 001 001 001G000H G000H G000H





G01H

mdash009G009H










S28



T7L 5 GContinued H

) a$ )IS

Aepe$e$t Iarable


It of a)re

)apta GN =63H























S29



T7L 6


63H

Aepe$e$t Iarable

Llasttampth


o$ )tamp Se a$


Se a$







mdash00

G2ltH

mdash1

G2ltH




Su 06 06

ow$loae fro20082312


S25







G02H




ow$loae fro20082312


S25














IConclusion








+


N



re $ tes S253

T7L lt





= mdash2


= mdash2

= mdash5


= mdash2

= mdash5








Appendi$ A






02 833

05 208

032 1333

080 3333

0lt 292

91166lt

















re $ tes S255















greater














References























Julamp 1938H 12







10+0002+999G10H

mdash06

G10H

mdash05

G001ltH



50+00099+999 1 16 0052G12H G12H G0036H


250+00099+999 21 22 0013G1H G1H G0029H

500+000999+999 21 2 0029G1H G1H G0035H

Š 1 000 000 9 88 0055G12H G13H G00H




S2

ow$loae fro20082312



























re $ tes S2lt

















T7L 5

)tes a$ )haratersts


Stole$ Bropertamp

ltE50 $ Bast Year

G1H G2H G3H

S4S 030 060 02ltG010H G01H G015H






4ale 126 12lt 10ltG008H G008H G013H





QT sore 001 001 001G000H G000H G000H





G01H

mdash009G009H










S28



T7L 5 GContinued H

) a$ )IS

Aepe$e$t Iarable


It of a)re

)apta GN =63H























S29



T7L 6


63H

Aepe$e$t Iarable

Llasttampth


o$ )tamp Se a$


Se a$







mdash00

G2ltH

mdash1

G2ltH




Su 06 06

ow$loae fro20082312


S25







G02H




ow$loae fro20082312


S25














IConclusion








+


N



re $ tes S253

T7L lt





= mdash2


= mdash2

= mdash5


= mdash2

= mdash5








Appendi$ A






02 833

05 208

032 1333

080 3333

0lt 292

91166lt

















re $ tes S255















greater














References























Julamp 1938H 12


























re $ tes S2lt

















T7L 5

)tes a$ )haratersts


Stole$ Bropertamp

ltE50 $ Bast Year

G1H G2H G3H

S4S 030 060 02ltG010H G01H G015H






4ale 126 12lt 10ltG008H G008H G013H





QT sore 001 001 001G000H G000H G000H





G01H

mdash009G009H










S28



T7L 5 GContinued H

) a$ )IS

Aepe$e$t Iarable


It of a)re

)apta GN =63H























S29



T7L 6


63H

Aepe$e$t Iarable

Llasttampth


o$ )tamp Se a$


Se a$







mdash00

G2ltH

mdash1

G2ltH




Su 06 06

ow$loae fro20082312


S25







G02H




ow$loae fro20082312


S25














IConclusion








+


N



re $ tes S253

T7L lt





= mdash2


= mdash2

= mdash5


= mdash2

= mdash5








Appendi$ A






02 833

05 208

032 1333

080 3333

0lt 292

91166lt

















re $ tes S255















greater














References























Julamp 1938H 12



re $ tes S2lt

















T7L 5

)tes a$ )haratersts


Stole$ Bropertamp

ltE50 $ Bast Year

G1H G2H G3H

S4S 030 060 02ltG010H G01H G015H






4ale 126 12lt 10ltG008H G008H G013H





QT sore 001 001 001G000H G000H G000H





G01H

mdash009G009H










S28



T7L 5 GContinued H

) a$ )IS

Aepe$e$t Iarable


It of a)re

)apta GN =63H























S29



T7L 6


63H

Aepe$e$t Iarable

Llasttampth


o$ )tamp Se a$


Se a$







mdash00

G2ltH

mdash1

G2ltH




Su 06 06

ow$loae fro20082312


S25







G02H




ow$loae fro20082312


S25














IConclusion








+


N



re $ tes S253

T7L lt





= mdash2


= mdash2

= mdash5


= mdash2

= mdash5








Appendi$ A






02 833

05 208

032 1333

080 3333

0lt 292

91166lt

















re $ tes S255















greater














References























Julamp 1938H 12



T7L 5

)tes a$ )haratersts


Stole$ Bropertamp

ltE50 $ Bast Year

G1H G2H G3H

S4S 030 060 02ltG010H G01H G015H






4ale 126 12lt 10ltG008H G008H G013H





QT sore 001 001 001G000H G000H G000H





G01H

mdash009G009H










S28



T7L 5 GContinued H

) a$ )IS

Aepe$e$t Iarable


It of a)re

)apta GN =63H























S29



T7L 6


63H

Aepe$e$t Iarable

Llasttampth


o$ )tamp Se a$


Se a$







mdash00

G2ltH

mdash1

G2ltH




Su 06 06

ow$loae fro20082312


S25







G02H




ow$loae fro20082312


S25














IConclusion








+


N



re $ tes S253

T7L lt





= mdash2


= mdash2

= mdash5


= mdash2

= mdash5








Appendi$ A






02 833

05 208

032 1333

080 3333

0lt 292

91166lt

















re $ tes S255















greater














References























Julamp 1938H 12



T7L 5 GContinued H

) a$ )IS

Aepe$e$t Iarable


It of a)re

)apta GN =63H























S29



T7L 6


63H

Aepe$e$t Iarable

Llasttampth


o$ )tamp Se a$


Se a$







mdash00

G2ltH

mdash1

G2ltH




Su 06 06

ow$loae fro20082312


S25







G02H




ow$loae fro20082312


S25














IConclusion








+


N



re $ tes S253

T7L lt





= mdash2


= mdash2

= mdash5


= mdash2

= mdash5








Appendi$ A






02 833

05 208

032 1333

080 3333

0lt 292

91166lt

















re $ tes S255















greater














References























Julamp 1938H 12



T7L 6


63H

Aepe$e$t Iarable

Llasttampth


o$ )tamp Se a$


Se a$







mdash00

G2ltH

mdash1

G2ltH




Su 06 06

ow$loae fro20082312


S25







G02H




ow$loae fro20082312


S25














IConclusion








+


N



re $ tes S253

T7L lt





= mdash2


= mdash2

= mdash5


= mdash2

= mdash5








Appendi$ A






02 833

05 208

032 1333

080 3333

0lt 292

91166lt

















re $ tes S255















greater














References























Julamp 1938H 12







G02H




ow$loae fro20082312


S25














IConclusion








+


N



re $ tes S253

T7L lt





= mdash2


= mdash2

= mdash5


= mdash2

= mdash5








Appendi$ A






02 833

05 208

032 1333

080 3333

0lt 292

91166lt

















re $ tes S255















greater














References























Julamp 1938H 12














IConclusion








+


N



re $ tes S253

T7L lt





= mdash2


= mdash2

= mdash5


= mdash2

= mdash5








Appendi$ A






02 833

05 208

032 1333

080 3333

0lt 292

91166lt

















re $ tes S255















greater














References























Julamp 1938H 12



re $ tes S253

T7L lt





= mdash2


= mdash2

= mdash5


= mdash2

= mdash5








Appendi$ A






02 833

05 208

032 1333

080 3333

0lt 292

91166lt

















re $ tes S255















greater














References























Julamp 1938H 12

















re $ tes S255















greater














References























Julamp 1938H 12



re $ tes S255















greater














References























Julamp 1938H 12













References























Julamp 1938H 12




















Julamp 1938H 12


















Julamp 1938H 12

Documents

Why is There More Crime in Cities. (1)