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Date: March 2016
How to look through noise and build wealth?
Why Equity?
2
3 reasons why you should INVEST… In EQUITY!
India’s growth drivers highlight the potential of equity markets
Prospect of not having to work your entire life – save for early retirement
Opportunity to outperform the ever increasing inflation – higher purchasing capacity
Ability to fulfil your goals in life – future focus
Historically, equity investment has relatively outperformed other asset classes over long term
Equity investment is relatively less explored in India compared to other investments option
3
Globally, equity is the most preferred investment avenue
India has the lowest exposure to equities with an allocation of only 4%
Source: Morgan Stanley, December 2015
Emerging economies, significantly under-exposed to equities compared to developed economies
4
Fixed Deposit returns < increase in cost
of living
Is my traditional saving method giving me enough cushion?
Source: Graph 1 - SBI, World bank. Period: 1980 – 2015
Difference between saving & investing is the ability to provide affordability cushion by beating
inflation on a regular basis
Bank
Fixed
Deposits
(average
returns),
7.22%
5
Equity provides cushion against ever-increasing cost of living Smartest way of wealth creation
Source: BSE India, World Bank. Period: 1980 – 2015
Regular investing in Equity helps you tackle cost of living and also plan for future goals
6
If our expenses are real, our returns should also be real… Post-inflation returns
Savings is not enough; You also have to beat inflation!
Value of today’s INR 100,000 over time Real cost of today’s expense over time
7
What worked yesterday, may not work tomorrow… Which asset class gives higher returns?
^Average of CAGR returns
* XIRR returns
Equities have outperformed other asset classes
8
Equity growth has been 220X in the last 35 years This turns out to a CAGR of 16.15%
Source: BSE India, 1980 – 2015
Trend remains unchanged
9
But the ride was not smooth for anybody… Crisis periods are recurrent, so are growth cycles
Source: RIMES, MSCI, Morgan Stanley Research as of January, 2016
10
Making more by losing less… A consistent, predictable behavior over time
Lowest CAGR = 7.06%
Highest CAGR = 16.10%
Average CAGR = 12.46%
100%
above inflation
& positive
15 year
returns
Lowest CAGR = 2.89%
Highest CAGR = 19.06%
Average CAGR = 12.34%
70%
above inflation
& 100%
positive
10 year
returns
11
Short-term volatility has always been a part of Equity investing…
BSE Sensex 3-year rolling
return
5-year rolling
return
7-year rolling
return
10-year rolling
return
15-year rolling
return
Average rolling period return 13.36% 11.67% 11.89% 12.34% 12.46%
Total time periods 23 21 19 16 11
Total number of positive returns* 19 18 18 16 11
Total number of negative returns^ 4 3 1 0 0
Positive investment periods 82% 85% 94% 100% 100%
Longer you stay invested, lower the possibility of negative return
In long term, probability of incurring loss is lower in equities
*Positive returns – Number of investment periods during which returns have been positive. For example, where investment returns have been
computed for 15 years, 10 years offered positive returns (profits), the number of positive returns are 10.
^Negative returns – Number of investment periods during which returns have been negative. For example, where investment returns have
been computed for 15 years, 5 years offered negative returns (losses), the number of negative returns are 5.
Source: MFI & Bloomberg
12
If you invest for a far-off goal, you can ride out the downturn…
Recovery time: 2 years 4 months
Maximum loss: -54.4%
Profit if held till 31/12/15: 7.73%
Recovery time: 3 years 11 months
Maximum loss: -56.2%
Profit if held till 31/12/15: 9.77%
Recovery time: 2 years 10 months
Maximum loss: -60.9%
Profit if held till 31/12/15: 2.65%
Losses in
Equity are
transitory with
‘Time in the
market’
13
The 2025 mirage scenario… Are you prepared ?
Projected bull M cap:
INR 652 lakh crore
Projected bear M cap:
INR 234 lakh crore
Projected base M cap:
INR 357 lakh crore
Projected GDP growth
^
Source: Bloomberg data with projection data until 2017.
The forecast, projection or target contained in this graph is for illustration purposes only and is not guaranteed in any way. Such forecasts, projections or targets are based on internal analysis and
hence will be different from the actuals.
Wealth creation from 2015 to 2020 could be 3X wealth created in last 5 years (base case)
14
To summarise… Equity is a core long term capital growth solution
The future is uncertain; prediction is risky
Preserve and, if possible, grow, capital, in real terms, over the long term
Avoid permanent impairment of capital through risk averse capital allocation
Target outperformance only over a full cycle
15
“Someone is sitting in the shade today because someone planted a tree a long time ago” – Warren Buffett
Are you ready to take part in the ‘Equity’ Vision?
Thank You
18
Disclaimer
This document has been prepared by HSBC Asset Management (India) Private Limited (AMIN) for information purposes only and should
not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer for purchase of any of the funds of HSBC Mutual Fund. All information contained in
this document (including that sourced from third parties), is obtained from sources, which AMIN/ third party, believes to be reliable but
which it has not been independently verified by AMIN/ the third party. Further, AMIN/ the third party makes no guarantee, representation
or warranty and accepts no responsibility or liability as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. The information and
opinions contained within the document are based upon publicly available information and rates of taxation applicable at the time of
publication, which are subject to change from time to time. Expressions of opinion are those of AMIN only and are subject to change
without any prior intimation or notice. It does not have regard to specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular
needs of any specific person who may receive this document. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of
investing in any securities or investment strategies that may have been discussed or recommended in this report and should understand
that the views regarding future prospects may or may not be realized. Neither this document nor the units of HSBC Mutual Fund have
been registered in any jurisdiction. The distribution of this document in certain jurisdictions may be restricted or totally prohibited and
accordingly, persons who come into possession of this document are required to inform themselves about, and to observe, any such
restrictions.
© Copyright. HSBC Asset Management (India) Private Limited 2016, ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
HSBC Asset Management (India) Private Limited, 16, V.N. Road, Fort, Mumbai-400001 Email: [email protected]
Mutual fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents
carefully.