Why Ecology?

Why Ecology?

Thesis: Understanding how ecological systems work is necessary for the flourishing of human societies.

At least 1,836 people lost their lives in Hurricane Katrina and in the subsequent floods.

The storm is estimated to have been responsible for $81.2 billion (2005 U.S. dollars) in damage, making it the costliest natural disaster in U.S. history.

Ok…so how is this related to scientific understanding of how ecological systems work (i.e., Ecology)?

Keeling Curve: Measured on Mauna Loa

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f4/Instrumental_Temperature_Record.png

Global warming and tropical cyclones are naturally linked by the storms' appetite for heat. Tropical storms are heat engines that draw their energy upward from warm ocean water to drive their winds before expelling waste heat to the upper atmosphere. So warming the tropical oceans--in effect throwing more wood on the fire--might be expected to spawn more frequent or more intense tropical cyclones.

Science Magazine , 2005

Science 16 September 2005:Vol. 309. no. 5742, pp. 1844 - 1846

Changes in Tropical Cyclone Number, Duration, and Intensity in a Warming Environment

P. J. Webster,1 G. J. Holland,2 J. A. Curry,1 H.-R. Chang1

We examined the number of tropical cyclones and cyclone days as well as tropical cyclone intensity over the past 35 years, in an environment of increasing sea surface temperature. A large increase was seen in the number and proportion of hurricanes reaching categories 4 and 5. The largest increase occurred in the North Pacific, Indian, and Southwest Pacific Oceans, and the smallest percentage increase occurred in the North Atlantic Ocean. These increases have taken place while the number of cyclones and cyclone days has decreased in all basins except the North Atlantic during the past decade.

www.google.com

Premise: Hurricane Katrina was devastating (more are expected)

Premise: (At least) two factors that are directly related to storm impact are ecological/resource issues: 1) proportion of the coast in wetlands, and 2) sea water temperature (i.e., climate change).

Conclusion: Hurricane Katrina is an example of humans suffering the consequences of our collective failure to adequately understand how ecosystem alterations feedback directly into human/societal well being.

Update: We are doing essentially nothing to address either issue.

Assertion: This cycle will continue until we have a critical mass of (relatively) powerful people in this society who demand that we assess ecosystem services before we wreck ecosystems.

Question: Who are those leaders going to be??

Why ecology?

“Do not drink the water.” Melani Amato Ohio Department of Health

Why ecology?

http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/toledos-water-crisis-not-over-yet-n171751

http://news.yahoo.com/living-carpet-green-slime-expands-across-lake-erie-205619651.html

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/stay-out-scum-warns-noaa%E2%80%99s-latest-bulletin-lake-erie%E2%80%99s-harmful-algal

Circle of Blue Coverage: http://www.circleofblue.org/waternews/CPX/cpx_great_lakes.shtml

Other Sources:

In class assignment…

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/western-wildfires/okanogan-complex-washington-wildfire-now-largest-state-history-n414916

http://www.agri.ohio.gov/TopNews/WeatherEmergencyResources/docs/Map_20150812.pdf

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/08/14/the-u-s-is-now-at-wildfire-preparedness-level-5-the-highest-there-is/?postshare=641439733571135

From The Onion

1. Generate food plants to adapt and grow sustainably in changing environments

2. Understand and sustain ecosystem function and biodiversity in the face of rapid change

3. Expand sustainable alternatives to fossil fuels

4. Understand individual health

You are living in the Era of Biological Science

According to the National Academy of Sciences (in association with a bunch of other national groups…the 4 most pressing scientific goals for the 21st century are:

A New Biology for the 21st Centuryhttp://www.nap.edu/catalog/12764.html

What is Ecology?

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LandscapeHow do variations in topographyand soils across the landscapeinfluence patterns of speciescomposition and diversity in thedifferent prairie communities?

PopulationIs the population of this speciesincreasing, decreasing, orremaining relatively constantfrom year to year?

CommunityHow does this species interactwith other species of plantsand animals in the prairiecommunity?

EcosystemHow do yearly variations inrainfall influence the productivityof plants in this prairie grasslandecosystem?

IndividualWhat characteristics allowthe Echinacea to survive,grow, and reproduce in theenvironment of the prairiegrasslands of central NorthAmerica?

BiomeWhat features of geology andregional climate determine thetransition from forest to prairiegrassland ecosystemsin North America?

BiosphereWhat is the role of the grasslandbiome in the global carbon cycle?

Slide 7

Importance of Scale

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ObservationsAll scientific studies begin with

observations of natural phenomenon.

QuestionObservations give rise to questions

that seek an explanation of theobserved phenomenon.

HypothesisAn answer to the question is

proposed that takes the form of astatement of cause and effect.

PredictionsPredictions thatfollow from thehypothesis must

be identified.These

predictionsmust betestable.

Hypothesis TestingThe predictions that follow from thehypothesis must be tested throughobservations and experiments (field

and laboratory). Data from theseexperiments must then be analyzedand interpreted to determine if they

support or reject the hypothesis.

If the experimentresults agree withthe predictions,further observationswill be made andfurther hypothesesand predictions willbe developed toexpand the scope ofthe problem beingaddressed.

If the experimentresults are not consistent withthe predictions,then the conceptualmodel of how thesystem works mustbe reconsidered anda new hypothesismust beconstructed.