Why Do People Vote, and Why Do People Vote, and Does it Matter if They Don’t?Does it Matter if They Don’t?

Michael AlvarezMichael Alvarez

PS 120PS 120

Why Don’t Americans Vote?Why Don’t Americans Vote?

Long and complex ballots (many Long and complex ballots (many candidates, many seats, initiatives)candidates, many seats, initiatives)

Lack of campaign activity and mobilizationLack of campaign activity and mobilization Disaffection, loss of trust in government, Disaffection, loss of trust in government,

alienationalienation Legal and institutional barriersLegal and institutional barriers

Voting in Recent American Voting in Recent American Presidential ElectionsPresidential Elections

Note: Percentage of voting age population (CPS)

??

Turnout in Recent CA ElectionsTurnout in Recent CA Elections

Turnout (of Registered Voters) in Turnout (of Registered Voters) in Two Recent Local ElectionsTwo Recent Local Elections

PuzzlesPuzzles

Why is turnout so low?Why is turnout so low? Why is turnout lower in local relative to Why is turnout lower in local relative to

national elections?national elections? Why is turnout declining in recent Why is turnout declining in recent

decades?decades? Who votes and who does not?Who votes and who does not? Does low turnout matter, empirically or Does low turnout matter, empirically or

normatively?normatively?

A Model for Voter TurnoutA Model for Voter Turnout

““Calculus of Voting” (Riker and Ordeshook Calculus of Voting” (Riker and Ordeshook 1968)1968)

V = pB - CV = pB - C

V = pB - C + DV = pB - C + D p = probability of vote “mattering”p = probability of vote “mattering” B = “utility” benefit of votingB = “utility” benefit of voting C = costs of votingC = costs of voting D = citizen duty, goodwill feelingD = citizen duty, goodwill feeling

Comparative StaticsComparative Statics

Ceteris paribus:Ceteris paribus: increases in p lead to increased turnoutincreases in p lead to increased turnout increases in B lead to increased turnoutincreases in B lead to increased turnout increases in C lead to decreased turnoutincreases in C lead to decreased turnout increases in D lead to increased turnoutincreases in D lead to increased turnout

This Model Presents the Basic This Model Presents the Basic DilemmaDilemma

Generally speaking, p will be zero in most Generally speaking, p will be zero in most electionselections

Also, benefits will be low and costs highAlso, benefits will be low and costs high So unless “duty” is a very important factor So unless “duty” is a very important factor

to many people, we should expect to see to many people, we should expect to see low turnoutlow turnout

Citizenship and Registration MatterCitizenship and Registration Matter

Millions, 2004 U.S. Presidential Election (CPS)

216197

142

Citizenship, Race and VotingCitizenship, Race and Voting

2004 Presidential Election

Who is registered and votingWho is registered and voting

Demographics of registration and votingDemographics of registration and voting 2004 Presidential Election2004 Presidential Election Two statisticsTwo statistics

% registered for each group, of CVAP% registered for each group, of CVAP % voting for each group, of CVAP% voting for each group, of CVAP

Who Votes: Race/EthnicityWho Votes: Race/Ethnicity

% of CVAP

Who Votes: GenderWho Votes: Gender

% of CVAP

Who Votes: AgeWho Votes: Age

% of CVAP

Who Votes: EducationWho Votes: Education

% of CVAP

Who Votes: Residential MobilityWho Votes: Residential Mobility

% of CVAP

So who votes?So who votes?

Citizens who are registeredCitizens who are registered WhitesWhites Higher levels of educational attainment Higher levels of educational attainment

(and of course income)(and of course income) Older citizensOlder citizens Long-time residents Long-time residents

Reasons for not voting, 2004Reasons for not voting, 2004

Percentages of registered non-voters, 2004

Education and Reasons for not Education and Reasons for not voting, 2004voting, 2004

Percentages of registered non-voters, 2004

Education and Reasons for not Education and Reasons for not voting, 2004voting, 2004

Percentages of registered non-voters, 2004

So, why is turnout “so low”?So, why is turnout “so low”?

Costs:Costs: Initial cost of registrationInitial cost of registration Continual cost of remaining registeredContinual cost of remaining registered Information and access costsInformation and access costs

Fact: most REGISTERED voters participate Fact: most REGISTERED voters participate in presidential electionsin presidential elections

And as these costs (i.e., registration) are And as these costs (i.e., registration) are things we can influence through policy ...things we can influence through policy ...

Efforts to Lower CostsEfforts to Lower Costs

Same day registration; easing of Same day registration; easing of registration regulationsregistration regulations

Expansion of ballot access --- absentee or Expansion of ballot access --- absentee or mail balloting, other mechanisms (internet)mail balloting, other mechanisms (internet)

Same-day registrationSame-day registration

Something Maine, Minnesota, and Something Maine, Minnesota, and Wisconsin adopted in the 1970’s (North Wisconsin adopted in the 1970’s (North Dakota does not have voter registration)Dakota does not have voter registration)

Something Idaho, New Hampshire, and Something Idaho, New Hampshire, and Wyoming adopted in the late 1990’sWyoming adopted in the late 1990’s

Used in the 1980’s in OregonUsed in the 1980’s in Oregon Was a ballot initiative in 2002 in California Was a ballot initiative in 2002 in California

and Coloradoand Colorado

Registration and Turnout in Registration and Turnout in Selected States, 2004Selected States, 2004

EDR’s Estimated Impact in EDR’s Estimated Impact in CaliforniaCalifornia

Estimated Increases in CA 2000 turnout, Alvarez-Ansolabehere 2002.

Does low turnout matter Does low turnout matter substantively?substantively?

Demographic differences between who Demographic differences between who votes and who does not indicate there votes and who does not indicate there might be substantial impacts on might be substantial impacts on representationrepresentation After all, do you think that you have the same After all, do you think that you have the same

interests as people three decades or more interests as people three decades or more older than you????older than you????

Nonvoters, voters and age Nonvoters, voters and age (2004 presidential)(2004 presidential)

Nonvoters, voters and Nonvoters, voters and education (2004 presidential)education (2004 presidential)

Does low turnout matter?Does low turnout matter?

Impacts the legitimacy of the electoral Impacts the legitimacy of the electoral processprocess

Lessens citizen’s connection to political Lessens citizen’s connection to political worldworld

One of many civic values in decline, One of many civic values in decline, intertwined with other declining civic intertwined with other declining civic values (especially participation in other values (especially participation in other public groups)public groups)

But … But …

Registration and voting is so easy now …Registration and voting is so easy now … If we keep making it easier we lessen the If we keep making it easier we lessen the

security of electionssecurity of elections Informational differences between voters Informational differences between voters

and non-votersand non-voters

One empirical puzzleOne empirical puzzle

Few studies have been able to show a Few studies have been able to show a clear bias in political representation due to clear bias in political representation due to turnoutturnout

There are only slight policy differences There are only slight policy differences found in most studies between who votes found in most studies between who votes and who does notand who does not

Perhaps non-voter interests are articulated Perhaps non-voter interests are articulated to some extent in the political system?to some extent in the political system?

Does low turnout matter Does low turnout matter normatively?normatively?

Should we be concerned when about 50% Should we be concerned when about 50% of the eligible electorate casts votes for of the eligible electorate casts votes for president? When only a small fraction of president? When only a small fraction of registered citizens votes in local races?registered citizens votes in local races?

Should great effort be extended to “bring Should great effort be extended to “bring back the non-voters?”back the non-voters?”