Who is this newsletter for? · 11/25/2016 · We [re not too worried as the stocks we hold tend to be good stocks that should have at least some market. If the market tanks. …then

3 Hour Investor Newsletter incorporating the “Newsletter Portfolio” Week 25- 2016-Nov-27

Who is this newsletter for? You want to learn to actively manage your portfolio for above market performance.

You’re a small investor who wants to use a system taking most likely about 3 hours per week

You’re a bit of a risk taker, you want the buzz of managing your own emotions and portfolio. You like

the kick of winning and can manage the opposite when you’re losing. You can handle the emotional

rollercoaster.

This newsletter is not for you if

If you already generate >20% per annum compound…you don’t need this advice.

If you can’t control your emotions…to actively trade…(specifically it’s too painful to

sell when you need to)

You have less than 3 hours per week to manage your portfolio.


Current Portfolio Valuation. (up 19% per annum)

Portfolio Valuation 2016/Nov/27 is $271,477. According to Lincoln the portfolio is increasing at a

rate of 19.15% per annum.


Comment. We now have 7 stock holdings

Losers >10% -

Losers 5.1%-10% 1

Losers 0%-5% 1

Gainers 0%-5% 1

Gainers 5.1%-10% 1

Gainers10.1% - 20% -

Gainers 20%-30% 1

Gainers 30%-40% 1

Gainers >40% 1

Portfolio comment. The portfolio had an up week. We’re sitting on $60.8k in cash or about 22% of

the portfolio. That cash will be deployed when the time is right. Until then it’s safe in our “bank”.

The newsletter portfolio is up 8.39% since formation about 6 months ago. Over the same period the

XJOAI is up 5.91%. During our time, we’ve “sat out” keeping cash safe for many weeks. At other

times we’ve jumped in to be virtually fully invested. The past few weeks has been mostly about

selling stocks as they hit their sell signal and then waiting for better signs. This was not stressful

(mostly)…however some stocks have hovered just above their sell signal for some time…I guess that

was interesting to watch.

What have you been doing with your portfolio? Has it been stressful? Did you sell when you needed

to? Did you stick to the plan?

3 Hour Investor Newsletter incorporating the “Newsletter Portfolio” Week 25- 2016-Nov-27 Status of US Markets on 2016-Oct-29.

Dow. Closed Green for the week futures very Green on Sunday

S&P 500 was Green for the week. Futures Very Green on Sunday.

Nasdaq. Green for Week. Futures Green Sunday…

Russell 2000 Green for week, Futures Green

Vix….has dropped sharply over the week and is Red on Saturday….a Green signal for the newsletter portfolio.


status of Australian Markets

XAO All Ordinaries Index. Closed Green

XMD Midcap 50 closed Green

XSO Small Ords closed Green

XVI Volatility Index down sharply, a Green signal. ….Almost a low point for the year and certainly a bid drop from the Trump election spike.


In summary there’s a lot of Green Green Green

This does look like a rising market.

If I was feeling conservative…I might sit out for another week (to see the XSO cross

upwards)…however I feel that if there’s a strong stock or two that look worthy of investment AND

the market is up on Monday AND US futures are still strong on Monday…the newsletter portfolio

might be able to use some of it’s spare cash.

Comments on Star and Borderline Stocks.

Stocks in Sell Territory. If I had these stocks I should have sold out.

Stocks that closed Green for week AND are rising at above 20% per annum (based on ROAR) AND are ‘above the line’. In other words worth thinking about as a buy.

Star Stocks BAP, COH, CTX, EVT, HVN, PMV, RCG, RFG, RHC, SRX, VTG

Star Stocks ALL, BGL**,CKF, CTD**, HSN, RFG, SRV**, SSM

Borderline Stocks APE, BLX, CAR**JBH, REA, SLK, TGR, TPM, VOC,WEB

Borderline Stocks AMA**, CCP**, WEB

Note…other Star and Borderlines are in hold territory.

Charts worth thinking about. The following seem to have bottomed out and look like they’re

rebounding off lows. Perhaps people now think they’re in bargain price territory. Will any of these

now rally

CTX, HVN, PMV, VTG, CAR**, REA, TPM, VOC.

Note…while there’s still quite a bit of red above, there seem to be green shoots…I ask again will we

get a Christmas rally? Is this the start. I’ll certainly be watching. What will you do?


Selling Report. All Newsletter portfolio stocks are in the “hold territory” on our charts.

ALL is still close to being sold…whilst it closed up this week…it’s not a great looking chart and yet

discipline says hold on.

CCP also closed up this week above the top red line and above the Chandelier stop loss…Again we

hold.

RFF is going sideways…it also closed up well above stop territory so we hold.

SSM dipped below both sell signals this week and I’m sorry to say is now out of the portfolio at 97c

on Monday this week. It then trended down, turned up and Ouch …it jumped a few cents at the end

of the week to close at 1.00. Them’s the breaks. At least our cash is safe in the bank waiting for

redeployment.


Buying Report.

No buys this week…and as previously mentioned…we planned to sit out this week waiting for a

clearer signal. We have about $60,784 in cash ready to go let’s hope we get a chance to buy

something this week.


Stocks worth assessing as suitable for

purchase if conditions are right this week The research for this section wasn’t completed this week as we’ve decided to sit out the

market.

This week’s filter’s worked as follows.

Star Stocks, strong fundamental stocks and large cap stocks that have closed green and have havr >

20% and a nice clear gap on HMMA.

A2M, ALQ, ANN, BGL**, BRG, CGF, CKF, CPU, CTD**, GUD, ISU, SRV**, TWE and WHC.

These stocks were put through the Newsletter scoring algorithm and the best scores are shown

below.

Stock Chart Score out of 31

Comment Decision

CKF

24 Positives.

45% minorities

Recent good news

Buying by Majors

Volumes up

Sector strongly green for week

Volume up Negatives

?

Buy up to $30k if markets and stock keep trending right.

CTD

20 Positives.

56% minorities

Recent news of positive results

Sector strongly green for week

Negatives

No majors buying

Flat Volumes

Buy up to $30k if

markets and stock keep trending right


CPU

19 Positives.

Sector green Negatives

No recent news

Flat Volumes

38% minorities

Buy up to $15k if

markets and stock keep trending right

WHC

19 Positives.

Recent coal price trends

Volumes up

Sector strongly green

Negatives

23% minorities

Majors selling

I’ll be watching on Monday. If these…or potentially the other shortlist stocks are up on Monday and

Market is up and futures are up…the newsletter portfolio will probably jump in and use a bit of it’s

excess cash. I love it when the stars align.

However as usual the finger will be hovering over the sell trigger if required.


Bonus Charts:

In this section I’ll sometimes list a chart that catches my eye and provide a brief comment.

If you want a stock reviewed, perhaps email me and I might include it (no promises)

Chart Comment

3PL This stock has crossed up and then grown quite strongly. It’s financial health is strong.

ASB Former star stock Has also crossed upwards in recent times and then grown rapidly Recent news seems to be positive Financial health = early warning Lots of selling by majors. What’s going on?


CDA A strong stock with growing ROA, fast EPS growth, strong dividend yield, low PE, low PEG Seems to have a lot going for it. Might be worth checking out

Parting comment

Bond prices have been flat in the past week after their recent significant drop (see last week’s

comment). Copper prices have grown significantly as per graph below

Again what does it all mean. What should we do with this information

Personally I think the answer is the similar to last week…The market is near a high and growing. The

newsletter portfolio will buy high quality stocks that are going up in a market that’s going up.

If the market goes down…we’ll sell out and wait.

I’m not going to suggest that an average investor can really truly understand the complexity of a

stocks fundamentals let alone the markets themselves. There will be many winners and losers, the

response from governments, trading partners, manufacturers, credit providers and so forth is an

amazing complex web of relationships to think about.


If the market turns down we’ll sell when the sell signals are hit. We’re not too worried as the stocks

we hold tend to be good stocks that should have at least some market.

If the market tanks. …then we might hunt for and buy defensive companies that are paying decent

and safe dividends. One way to think about this is to buy Lincoln Star Income stocks that have a PE

under 15. The only one available right now is TLS. Towards the bottom of the market there might

be a whole bunch available.

That’s the plan for this portfolio. What’s your plan? When to you plan to buy and sell and hold and

change tack? If you don’t have a plan…then what’s going on?

Until next week happy investing and I really mean that. If you’re worried and on edge and don’t

know what to do then your system may not be working for you.

Warning. This newsletter is provided for your entertainment only, I’m not a financial adviser, I have not taken account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. You should therefore consider the appropriateness of any descriptions of my Newsletter and its newsletter portfolio in light of your objectives, financial situation and needs, before taking any actions.

All views and information expressed in this newsletter are not the views of Lincoln and or its directors, agents, representatives and employees.

I do invest and trade in shares, I’ll mark the ones that I own with (**)

Documents

Who is this newsletter for? · 11/25/2016 · We [re not too worried as the stocks we hold tend to be good stocks that should have at least some market. If the market tanks. …then