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Who is afraid of population decline?
The struggle of keeping rural population decline on the Dutch agenda
October 29th 2020, Bettina Bock
Today: information & reflection
InformationWhat does population decline mean in NL?How is population decline addressed by policymakers?
Reflection What can we learn from the Netherlands? Which processes are similar and different?
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Remaining population low SES
Lower education Lower income More unemployment More reliance on social
benefits More long term poverty
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In sum: lower overall wellbeing
Economic growth Household income (un)employment Health Access services Social cohesion
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2. Dutch shrinkage policies:
2009: 1st intergovernmental shrinkage action plan awareness raising
Identifying 7 shrinking & 16 anticipation regions Main problems: (vacant) housing & services Providing additional funds for training & awareness raising Some funds for civic experiments around service innovation
Main message to local governments: don’t fight population decline but invest in maintaining liveability for remaining residents
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Evaluation 1st actionplan in 2014
Limited problem definition Little attention for mobility & (digital) connectivity Lack of investment in regional economy Lack of investment in border-crossing collaboration No recognition of accumulation & intersection of problems Not recognition of negative effects of generic policies (e.g.
schools, transport, health, housing corporations)Flaws in governance structure: Let regional governments lead Include civic organisations Accept responsibility as central government
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2016: 2nd action plan
More shrinking regions & more problems!
Main problems: ● Vacant housing & real estate,
● economic vitality & labour market,
● (digital) connectivity,
● Maintenance services (culture, education, health/social care)
In time tools & new messages● Invest in smart specialisation● From regional partnerships● Let’s discuss common challenges, e.g. climate
change14
Evaluation 2nd action plan in 2019
Effect in the regions Main problems are still the same Sense of urgency & readiness to act in regions differs Leadership roles for provincial government and housing
corporations
Effects of national policy Little progress in problems arising from generic policies State should do more – not just facilitator Region deal as new catalysator
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2018: (re)discovery of regional development
Region deals:
public –private (co-financed) investment in selected priorities with governments, businesses, knowledge institutions & third sector (950 million state)
200 million for shrinking regions with variable focus:
Education, labour market, tourism, sustainable housing, sustainable energy, nature inclusive agriculture. marine economy ....
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The future: 3rd action plan ?????????????
Mainstream policy context Prominence of metropolitan agenda: investing in urban
growth: economy, infrastructure & housing Crisis 2008: regional economies hit hard with slow
recovery Post crisis 2008 decentralizing social domain to with
budget cuts And now COVID19
Increasing spatial & social inequality: income, health, infrastructure
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Against background of social unrest
Discontent & populist voting in ‘periphery’ Academics: importance of cohesive development Joint lobby of shrinking provinces & rural municipalities Municipalities complain about bankruptcy Discussions around spatial injustice
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Paradox of Dutch policies
Urban bias in mainstream policy = state interest Urbanisation and rural exodus seen as natural Definition of shrinkage as regional problem/weakness
Population decline is not seen as an urgent problemIs not a priority & continuity shrinkage policy uncertain
BUT regional policy might gain importanceWith climate change, need for sustainable energy
and following COVID19
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3. Reflection: what can we learn from NL?
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The Netherlands as ‘extreme case’ :
• Population decline not just in rural & remote regions
• Results also from general transitions (urbanisation,
globalisation, demographic transition, crisis)
Population decline is not ‘destiny’ or ‘nature’
It can hit everywhere (.g. Detroit!)
Population decline & rural urban relations
Population decline is not just about numbers It undermines wellbeing & social cohesion
Accumulation of material problemsExperience of urban bias and disrespect discontent and distrust
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Need to restore relations: rural-urban and centre-periphery
people oriented supporting inclusive wellbeing
Recognising place-specificneeds & opportunities
Acknowledging interdependency & reciprocity
as common interest & opportunity
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