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Kevin Henry, Project Coordinator, Where the Rain Falls, CARE France Dr. Koko Warner, Scientific Director, Where the Rain Falls, United Nations University CBA7, Dhaka Bangladesh 21-25 April 2013
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Kevin Henry, Project Coordinator, Where the Rain Falls, CARE France
Dr. Koko Warner, Scientific Director, Where the Rain Falls, United Nations University
Where the Rain Falls: Climate Change, Food and Livelihood
Security, and Migration
CAR
CBA7, Dhaka Bangladesh
21-25 April 2013
2
Problem: shifting rainfall regimes,
shifting livelihood regimes:
Under what circumstances do households use migration ...
...as a risk management strategy?
What matters to
affected households?
Rainfall variability*
+ development in the last 30 year
Migration*
as normal income strategy /in times of crises
Floods
Dry spells
Heavy rainfall event
Droughts
Local perception
Meteorological Data
Crop production
Livestock production
Livestock Data
Coping/adaptation strategies:
crop modification,
reduce food consumption, diversification of income activities,
reduce expenditure, (seasonal) migration,
selling of assets, rely on external help
Remittances
less c
onsu
me
rs in
lea
n s
easo
n
selling
Livestock
Food Security* Access to food
Availa-bility
of food
Mo
ne
y to
buy fo
od
Livestock
Crop Data
Floods
Rainfall Main research topic
Conceptual research foci,
Data from PRA and survey
Secondary data
Comparison between local
perceptions and meteorological
data
Liv
elih
oo
d S
ec
uri
ty o
f th
e h
ou
se
ho
ld
Networks
Patterns of
migration
Push/pull factors: demographic situation of the
household, employment opportunities * Primary data from household
survey, PRA, expert interviews
Crop data
Land ownership
Food price development
Food price data
Is human mobility a “positive”
form of adaptation,
or part of erosive
coping strategies?
Resilience to climatic
stressors
Vulnerability to climatic
stressors
Migration
improves HH
resilience
Migration used
to survive, but
not flourish
Migration
erosive coping
strategy
Migration not an
option: trapped
populations
• Economy: poor
• Adaptation options:
access to livelihoods
options &assets (social,
economic, political),
• Education: Children
have 3-5 years more
education than parents
• Migrant: early 20s,
single; temporal
migration
• Remittances:
education, livelihood
diversification, health
• Economy: chronically
food insecure,
landless, Female -
headed HH
• Adaptation options:
insufficient assets to
adapt locally or through
migration
• Education:
• Migrant: not feasible
• Remittances: none.
Abandoned / trapped
populations
• Economy: landless
• Adaptation options:
few adaptation options
in situ, inability to
diversify
• Education: All HH
members have low or
no education / skill
levels
• Migrant: HH Head,
mid 40s, migration in
hunger season
• Remittances: Partial
success in obtaining
food or money to buy
food
• Economy: land scarce
• Adaptation options:
less access to assets &
institutions for support
• Education: Children
have same education
level as parents
• Migrant: HH Head, mid
40s, migration in hunger
season
• Remittances: Success
in obtaining food or
money to buy food
4 household profiles: Reveal the circumstances
under which households use migration to manage
changes in rainfall variability and food insecurity
13
Geographic Diversity: 8
Countries
8 case studies
Source: CARE France
14
Thailand: Diverse livelihoods & access to assets &
services make migration a matter of choice in
Lamphun Province
16
Vietnam: Landless, low-skilled poor of Hung Thanh
Commune have few options, despite a rising
economic tide
17
India: Poor households in Janjgir-Champa rely on
seasonal migration for food security -- despite
irrigation, industrialization & safety nets
18
Bangladesh: Migration is a key coping strategy for
poor households in Kurigram, but one with high
social costs
Outlook
1. Focus efforts on what matters to affected
households: Certainty, livelihood and food security.
These factors affect who migrates, when, for what
reasons, and to what destinations (rural - rural).
2. Focus on building resilience, reducing climatic
sensitivity.
– See management of climatic stressors and migration
within the larger system—especially food & livelihood
systems—and not “just” at borders.
– Mobility almost always begins locally (yet drivers can be
trans-boundary). Can lead to cross border migration if
vulnerabilities are not addressed.
3. Equity, gender, and considerations for community
based adaptation