December 11, 2012

WHERE SHOULD WE EXPAND AIRPORT CAPACITY IN METRO LA? Jacki Murdock, Transportation and Environmental Planner

¡  Trends in Air Travel ¡ Air Travel in SCAG Region ¡  Why Airport Expansion? ¡  Consolidate or Disperse ¡  Drawbacks of dispersed expansion ¡  LAX expansion Recommendation: SCAG should focus

efforts at expanding LAX capacity

OVERVIEW

¡ Airport travel is increasing for both passengers and goods § Air passenger travel increased 200% since 1980 § 347 million to 1.1 billion

§ Goods movement by air increased 180% since 1980 § On-time delivery market

¡ Hubbing- transferring flights § A more efficient system for airlines § Consolidated travel in airports allows more hubbing

GROWING TRENDS IN AIR TRAVEL

Source: Taylor, 2012; Federal Aviation Administration, 2011

¡  Six Commercial Airports §  4 International §  2 Domestic

¡  Travel is concentrated at LAX

¡  LAX is the world’s busiest Origin/Destination airport §  Third largest U.S. airport in

Million Annual Passengers (MAP)

¡  LAX serves two purposes: moving people and moving goods §  7th in the US in Air Cargo

AIR TRAVEL IN SCAG REGION

Source: Federal Aviation Administration, 2011

¡ There is growing demand for air travel in Southern California § LAX is expanding 30%--78.9 more MAP

¡ The SCAG region needs to expand capacity… the question is where it should be done

¡ Two Options:

§ Consolidate expansion at LAX § Disperse expansion throughout the region

NEED TO ADD CAPACITY

LAX Expansion—consolidated growth

Advantages: ¡ Economic Vitality ¡ Goods movement and

logistics Challenges: ¡ Environmental

Concerns ¡ Community opposition

A QUICK COMPARISON

Regional Expansion—dispersed growth

Advantages: §  Economic benefits

across many municipalities

Challenges: §  Health concerns

dispersed §  Accessibility concerns

¡  Affects more people § More people exposed to externalities §  Community around LAX less affected by increased growth

¡ Makes mitigation more difficult §  Focus mitigation at one location

¡  Goods movement and infrastructure is dif ficult to disperse §  Logistics dependent on close proximity to airports

¡  Regional dispersal was attempted in the 1990s and failed (Erie 2004)

§  El Toro: great desire and opposition to commercialize §  Palmdale: experienced expansion but stopped service in 2008 §  Other regional airports have limited space to expand

PITFALLS OF REGIONAL DISPERSAL

Why not expand regional airport traffic?

¡  Established as the International airport in Southern California ¡  For airlines: consolidation means concentrated benefits

§  Airline trend towards “hubbing” §  High fixed costs of airlines means consolidation can lower average

costs ¡  Important for Economic Growth and Competitiveness

§  Goods movement- established land use patterns surrounding LAX §  Jobs-28,550 directly associated with LAX

¡  Concentrates transportation investments §  Dense origins and destinations facilitate transit use

BENEFITS OF LAX EXPANSION

Sources: LAWA, 2004; LACEDC, 2012; & Taylor, 2012

¡  Increasing capacity at LAX will have concentrated costs ¡ Environmental Concerns

§ Pollution § LAX was Los Angeles’ 3rd largest source of smog during

1990’s § Noise pollution § Peak period— planes take off and land every 2 minutes

¡ Community Opposition § Increased congestion on the local road network in

surrounding communities § Incompatible surrounding land uses and environmental

justice

BARRIERS TO LAX EXPANSION

Source: Erie, 2004; LAWA, 2004; Taylor, 2012

¡ Moderate Expansion at LAX § Master Plan Alternative D (LAWA 2004):

§  No new runways §  New center taxi space and larger runways

¡  Promote ground transportation improvements §  LAX Specific Plan Amendment Alternative 9 (LAWA 2012) §  Regional connectivity of public transportation directly to airport §  Automated People Mover with connection to:

§  Metro Green and Blue Rail lines §  Intermodal Transportation Facility §  Consolidated rental car facility

PHYSICAL RECOMMENDATIONS

¡  Concentrate growth in air travel at LAX ¡  Encourage development of more fuel efficient planes ¡  Increase hubbing to increase air travel without ground side

transportation ¡  Transform land use changes surrounding LAX

§  Support the voluntary buyout and relocation of impacted individuals §  Re-zone surrounding land to promote industries that benefit from

proximity to air freight (Karsado 2006) ¡  Set growth targets on impacts rather than MAP proxy

§  CO2/passenger §  Decibels/hour

POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS

¡  Erie, S. (2004). Internat ional airpor t development at stal l speed, in Global iz ing L.A . : Trade, Infrastructure, and Regional Development. Stanford, CA: Stanford Universi ty Press.

¡  Federal Aviat ion Administrat ion 2012. Passenger and Cargo Data. Retr ieved from: http://www.faa.gov/airpor ts/planning_capacity/passenger_al lcargo_stats/

¡  Kasarda, J . (2006) . The r ise of the aerotropol is . The Next American City. Retr ieved from http://americancity.org/magazine/ar t ic le/the-r ise-of - the-aerotropol is -kasarda

¡  Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporat ion 2012. Los Angeles Internat ional Airpor t in 2011 . Retr ieved from: http://www.laedc.org/repor ts/LAX_2011_FINAL.pdf

¡  Los Angeles World Airpor ts (LAWA) 2004. LAX Master Plan. Retr ieved from http://laxmasterplan.org/pub_finalMP.aspx

¡  Los Angeles World Airpor ts (LAWA) 2012. LAX Specif ic Plan Amendment Study. Retr ieved from: http://www.lawa.org/laxspas

¡  Los Angeles World Airpor ts (LAWA) 2012. Stat ist ics . Retr ieved from: http://lawa.org/welcome_lax.aspx?id=798

¡  Taylor, B. (2012). The r ise of air t ravel and airpor ts : Impl icat ions for urban areas [UP 255 lecture] .

REFERENCES

QUESTIONS?