Where does this reanalysis fit in the NCEP plan?

• Our mandate : a CFS upgrade in 2010• Our approach : a reanalysis and reforecast

upgrade• On the reanalysis, we propose to

– Use the coupled model to provide first guess– Use the operational atmospheric data assimilation

resolution– Use MOM4 at .5 degree (developed in GFDL)– Use Global Land Data Assimilation (developed in

EMC but funded by NCPO)

Why T382?

• We feel that the best initial condition is the best way to improve forecast

• Potential for reforecast for short and medium range

• It would also be the best forcing for the ocean data assimilation

Group effort• Some of the work are internal supported

– GFS model development– GSI improvement

• More are externally supported – Satellite data ingest (JCSDA)– Land model and land data assimilation (NCPO)– Ocean model (NOAA GFDL)– Ocean data assimilation (NCPO)– MSU and SSU recalibration and corrections

(NESDIS)

Monitoring and archival

• CPC and CTB have committed major resources to help with the monitoring and evaluation effort

• NCDC is committed to archive and provide to the community the reanalysis data

• NCAR wants to be a strong partner

What do we want from the board?• EMC and NCPO management have given us full

support. But are we doing it right? They want to know.• Is CFSRR the right thing to do? Are there cheaper

alternatives?• Risk vs reward for

– Coupled data assimilation– High resolution

• Is the schedule reasonable?• What more preparation work should we be doing?• What products are important to other users of the

reanalysis?

Guess T382L64 Hourly Output

Hourly

60 variables only from PGB file (.5x.5) 4 MB (1)

Standard pressure GRIB (0.5x0.5) 155 MB

Standard flux GRIB (Gaussian 1152x576) 70 MB (1)

Radiation flux GRIB (Gaussian 1152x576) 60 MB (2)

Per hour 140 MB

Total for 1 day 140 x 24 = 3.36 GB

Analysis T382L64 Atmospheric Output

6-hourly

Prepbufr Analysis 30 MB (3)

Data Dumps (for 26 Aug 2007) 895 MB (3)

Sigma hybrid analysis (spectral) 228 MB (3)

Surface analysis (Gaussian) 117 MB (3)

Standard pressure GRIB (.5x.5) 155 MB (1)

3-D diagnostic model level GRIB 976 MB

3-D diagnostic pressure level GRIB (.5x.5) 454 MB (2)

Isentropic diagnostic GRIB (.5x.5) 32 MB (2)

Total 2.4 GB

Total for 1 day 2.4 x 4 = 9.6 GB

Analysis Ocean Output from MOM4

6-Hourly:

Ocean Analysis GRIB (model grid) 400 MB (3)

Ocean Analysis 1240 MB

Ocean standard grid 200 MB

Ocean standard grid GRIB (0.5 x 0.5) 20 MB (1)

Total 600 GB

Total for 1 day 0.6 x 4 = 2.4 GB

2-day T382L64 Coupled Forecast Output

6-hourly T382L64 Atmospheric :

Standard pressure GRIB (1.0x1.0) 52 MB

For one 2-day forecast 52 x 8 = 416 MB

Total for 1 day of Reanalysis forecasts (4 cycles) 1.67 GB

CFSRR Output Archive Needed for Hydrology Community: 318 Tb total

• CFS reforecast: 288.3 Tb– Atmosphere (standard 6-hourly grib 2.5 deg pressure file): 99.09 Tb

• (7.7 Mb X 4)/day x 366 days per CFS member x 8790 CFS members– Land (standard 6-hourly grib flux file): 124.83 Tb

• (9.7 Mb x 4)/day x 366 days per CFS member x 8790 CFS members– Ocean (standard daily grib 0.5 deg): 64.35 Tb

• 20Mb/day x 366 days per CFS member x 8790 CFS members• Global Reanalysis: 30.1 Tb

– Atmosphere (GDAS): 14.3 Tb • (standard 6-hourly grib 0.5 deg pressure file): 7.5 Tb

– (155 Mb x 4)/day x 365 days x 33 years• (standard 3-hourly surface flux grib): 6.8 Tb

– (70 Mb x 8)/day x 365 days x 33 years:

– Land (GLDAS): 15.5 Tb• GLDAS hourly land surface forcing: 3 Tb

– 10 Mb per hour times 24 hours/day x 365 days/year x 33 years• GLDAS 3-hourly land surface states and fluxes: 12.5 Tb

– 130 Mb per 3-hours x 8 times daily x 365 days x 33 years

– Ocean (GODAS): 0.3 Tb• Standard daily grib 0.5 deg: 20Mb/day x 366 days x 33 years

OPERATIONS T382 REANALYSIS T62

OPERATIONS T382 REANALYSIS T62

OPERATIONS T382 REANALYSIS T62

OPERATIONS T382 REANALYSIS T62

OPERATIONS T382 REANALYSIS T62

OPERATIONS SSI T382 REANALYSIS GSI T62

Year NH SH Year NH SH

1979 73 67 1987 73 71

1980 74 68 1988 72 72

1981 74 69 1989 75 69

1982 74 68 1990 74 70

1983 74 70 1991 74 71

1984 74 68 1992 75 73

1985 74 67 1993 74 72

1986 75 69 1994 75 70

5 day forecast anomaly correlation

Annual Mean

(T62 atmosphere only)

Reanalysis NH SH

OPR 85 80

CFSRR 74 72

CFS (R2) 72 63

R1 71 62

5 day forecast anomaly correlation

Annual Mean

(T62 atmosphere only)

Year NH SH Year NH SH Year NH SH

1979 82 65 1989 78 71 1999 79 69

1980 79 71 1990 73 65 2000 84 67

1981 82 63 1991 81 69 2001 80 64

1982 74 68 1992 81 71 2002 81 68

1983 81 77 1993 79 68 2003 84 72

1984 83 68 1994 77 60 2004 80 72

1985 78 65 1995 84 62 2005 83 75

1986 78 65 1996 79 68 2006

1987 76 70 1997 79 72 2007

1988 76 70 1998 76 66 2008

5 day forecast anomaly correlation for Jan