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What's up with the vocational education? Dissecting the education-job mismatch in school to
work transitions in Croatia
Evidence based policy making for employment generation and skills provision
New Skills for New Jobs in the Western Balkans?
Teo Matković, University of Zagreb
Education-occupation mismatch?
Mismatch between educational system and "labour market needs".
One way of understanding it: a "mechanical" issue of supply and demand?
Assumption:
non-problematic link Education --> Occupation
But:
Weak demand for some occupations or "overproduction" of some cadres leading to problems with employability
Flipside: Weak supply of profiles in demand is hurting the economy.
If this holds true:
Adjustment of entry quotas would solve skill mismatch and reduce unemployment
Strategy: to establish
What is the sectoral structure of labour market entrants?
What is the structure of occupational destinations for vocational education graduates?
Is it due to mismatch of aggregated supply and demand?
What about the employability? Does job acquisition dynamics vary across fields of education?
Is there a noted structural trend of change in employability for ? What had the crisis brought us?
Digresion 1: Things in the context: Differences between fields vs. differences between levels of education
Digression 2: Evidence on facilitating employability through training ALMPs
A: Population: all persons who completedvocational educationin the period
B: Entered higher education
Number continuing education
Destinations: type and field of higher education
C: Registered with PES
Dynamics: employed within 6/12/36 months
Destinations: occupation (ISCO) of first job
Education database(E-matica) – aggreg.
CBS education statistics
PES database
Observing the post-educationoutcomes: Analytical approach and sources
Reliable knowledge on current (and past) outcomes among people leaving education– as a base for policy development and (one of key inputs) for future planning.
The data used here
A product of IPA project "Strengthening of the institutional framework for development of VET occupational standards, qualifications and curricula" (Jačanje institucionalnog okvira za razvoj strukovnih standarda zanimanja, kvalifikacija i kurikuluma)
Entire population of new registrants 2006-2010
Detailed field of education, date of job aquisition, administrative ISCO and ISIC codes of the job.
Focus on secondary educated recent school leavers with no substantive previous experience (age <21).
Bias: only those who reported to PES (67% for vocational graduates over entire time span – much higher as reccesion struck)
On outcomes presented here
Horizontal mismatch
Education-occupation mismatch: have graduates ended in the occupations they were trained for
Job analysis approach (taking intended match of education and occupation at a face value) - expert estimate of sectoral council experts.
Relaxed criterion applied – if any occupation deemed suitable for broad educational sector is reached by a graduate from any course within the eductional sector, the outcome is considered a match (e.g. if a trained cook gets a waiter job) – likely underestimating incidence of mismatches
Job acquisition dynamics
Ability to find (any) job within 6/12/36 months
Ought to be lower among the graduates from "sufficitary" education programmes where demand for associated occupations is weaker.
Structure of vocational education origins (1)Share of
registrants with sectoral
education(A)
Agriculture and food processing
6,3
Forestry and carpentry 1,8
Textile and leather 2,7
Engineering, shipbuilding, metal
16,3
Electrotechnics and IT 12,7
Construction and geodesy 3,9
Economics, trade and business administration
19,9
Tourism and hospitality 11,9
Transport and logistics 6,3
Health 7,0
Personal and other services 8,6
Share of registrants
with sectoral education
(A)
Found first job in
sectoral occupation
(B)
Agriculture and food processing
6,3 4,7
Forestry and carpentry 1,8 4,2
Textile and leather 2,7 3,0
Engineering, shipbuilding, metal
16,3 9,7
Electrotechnics and IT 12,7 5,0
Construction and geodesy 3,9 6,6
Economics, trade and business administration
19,9 23,0
Tourism and hospitality 11,9 20,4
Transport and logistics 6,3 6,5
Health 7,0 6,5
Personal and other services 8,6 9,5
...and occupational destinations (for same pop.) (2)
Share of registrants
with sectoral education
(A)
Found first job in
sectoral occupation
(B)
Registrants from sectoral education vs. jobs found in
sectoral occupation
(C=A/B)
Agriculture and food processing
6,3 4,7 136%
Forestry and carpentry 1,8 4,2 44%
Textile and leather 2,7 3,0 91%
Engineering, shipbuilding, metal
16,3 9,7 167%
Electrotechnics and IT 12,7 5,0 253%
Construction and geodesy 3,9 6,6 59%
Economics, trade and business administration
19,9 23,0 86%
Tourism and hospitality 11,9 20,4 58%
Transport and logistics 6,3 6,5 97%
Health 7,0 6,5 108%
Personal and other services 8,6 9,5 91%
...compositional mismatch for youth? (3)
Share of registrants
with sectoral education
(A)
Found first job in
sectoral occupation
(B)
Registrants from sectoral education vs. jobs found in
sectoral occupation
(C=A/B)
Jobs in sectoral occupations filled
by registrants with sectoral education
Agriculture and food processing
6,3 4,7 136% 37,0%
Forestry and carpentry 1,8 4,2 44% 25,0%
Textile and leather 2,7 3,0 91% 33,4%
Engineering, shipbuilding, metal
16,3 9,7 167% 74,4%
Electrotechnics and IT 12,7 5,0 253% 78,3%
Construction and geodesy 3,9 6,6 59% 29,1%
Economics, trade and business administration
19,9 23,0 86% 50,5%
Tourism and hospitality 11,9 20,4 58% 45,1%
Transport and logistics 6,3 6,5 97% 28,9%
Health 7,0 6,5 108% 96,9%
Personal and other services 8,6 9,5 91% 40,7%
How often sectoral occupations get filled from "appropriate" education? (4)
Differences in general employability?(graduates from short vocational courses)
Number of registrants
(2006-2010)
Found a job within 12 months
Occupation not matching sectoral
profile
Tourism and hospitality 6466 56% 27%
Construction and geodesy 1446 55% 53%
Forestry and wood processing 1109 54% 43%
Engineering, shipbuilding, metallurgy 8912 52% 57%
Electrotechnics and IT 3934 51% 68%
Economics, trade and business administration
5479 51% 41%
Transport and logistics 1453 50% 56%
Agriculture and food processing 1941 49% 63%
Personal and other services 4906 49% 63%
Textile and leather 1246 49% 65%
Total – short vocational programmes (3 yr, mostly apprenticeship-based)
37345 52% 51%
Crisis and employability by sector of vocational secondary education: not much of a difference
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
Fou
nd f
irst
job
with
in 1
2 m
onth
s (%
)
7/06 -6/07 7/07 -6/08 7/08- 6/09 7/09 - 6/10
Period of initial entry to unemployment register
Agriculture and food processing Forestry and wood processing
Textile and leather
Engineering, shipbuilding, metal
Electrotechnics and IT Construction and geodesy
Economics, trade and business administration Tourism and hospitality
Transport and logistics
Health
Personal, protective and other services
Vocational sector
Differences within educational sectors?
Dynamics of job acquisition: The most populous vocational programmes in electrotechnics
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
% k
oji
su p
ron
ašl
i svo
j prv
i po
sao
6 12 18 24 30 36vrijeme proteklo op prve prijave u HZZ (mjeseci)
Elektrotehničar Tehničar za računalstvo
Elektroinstalater Elektromehaničar
In-detail: Occupation of the first job found: electro-technician
NKZsifra Broj % Kumulativni
% 3113714. elektrotehničar/elektrotehniča 146 11,7 11,7 7137123. elektroinstalater/elektroinsta 110 8,8 20,5 9911111. radnik/radnica bez zanimanja 75 6,0 26,4 5123133. konobar/konobarica 73 5,8 32,3 5220213. prodavač/prodavačica 70 5,6 37,9 9320131. radnik/radnica na proizvodnoj 46 3,7 41,5 4131124. skladištar/skladištarka 33 2,6 44,2 9313151. radnik/radnica visokogradnje 25 2,0 46,2 9330411. skladišni radnik/skladišna rad 24 1,9 48,1 7241513. elektromonter/elektromonterka 23 1,8 49,9 5123112. pomoćni konobar/pomoćna konoba 22 1,8 51,7 9320251. drvoprerađivački radnik/drvopr 22 1,8 53,4 7137143. električar/električarka održav 21 1,7 55,1 7241543. elektromehaničar/elektromehani 20 1,6 56,7 9312151. radnik/radnica niskogradnje 17 1,4 58,1 9330131. transportni radnik/transportna 15 1,2 59,3 9211421. poljoprivredni radnik/poljopri 14 1,1 60,4 9212111. šumski radnik/šumska radnica 14 1,1 61,5 7222423. bravar/bravarica 13 1,0 62,5
What about level of education?
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
Fou
nd fi
rst j
ob w
ithin
12
mon
ths
(%)
7/06-6/07 7/07-6/08 7/08-6/09 7/09-6/10Period of initial entry to unemployment register
Vocational secondary (3yr) Technical secondary (4yr)
Academic tertiary Professional tertiary
Possibility of a quick-fix: efficiency of training ALMPs estimation via matching technique (Matković et. al, 2011)
Sudionici mjera iz 2009. evidentirani kao nezaposleni u 10. mj. 2011:
Financiranje obrazovanja 44%Kod njima sličnih nesudionika 46%(ns)
But slight (2-6%) positive effect for younger unemployed, persons without upper secondary education and returnees from inactivity
...just like in the West, might help some (at considerable price), but not a magic wand.
Findings: wrapping up (1) Many horizontal mismatches, lasting ones
Wasted (personal and public) investment? Some sectors in "short supply" (wood, tourism, construction)
Majority of graduates find jobs in apropriate occupations, often slightly faster than others (but: health)
In some sectors occupational demand exceeds supply (engineering, electrotechnics)
But recruitment to sectoral occupations mostly happens from sectoral education
Maintaining the capacity or reducing educational sectors? Good signal? Average or above-average employability
Some educational sectors seldom leads to sectoral occupation although there is no lack of demand for sectoral occupations
Content of education not recognized as relevant with employers? As well, slightly lower employability.
Findings: wrapping up (2)
Employability variation between and within education sectors rather modest
Vocational education composition unlikely to be a key for understanding persistenly slow labour market integration of youth
Level of education as key determinant of LM outcomes
Tradeoff at the personal level: educational trajectory choice (few viable "bridging" options between tracks)
Limited remedial capability of active labour market policies
An issue of credibility and quality of education, not quantityDevelopment of ocupational and qualification standards
Source: Balković et. al, 2011
(All resources and products available from ASOO webpages): http://www.asoo.hr/euprojekti/kvalifikacije/default.aspx?id=521
Further strivings/extension: Human potential register
Source: Crnković-Pozaić, 2012
A: Population: all persons who completedvocational educationin the period
B: Entered higher education
Number continuing education
Destinations: type and field of higher education
C: Registered with PES
Dynamics: employed within 6/12/36 months
Destinations: occupation (ISCO) of first job
Education database(E-matica) – aggreg.
CBS education statistics
PES database
More precise:State matriculation(Državna matura)+ISVU databases
Complete coverage:Pension insuranceBase (HZMO)
Directly linkable:Individual level data(anonymized)
Observing the outcomes: Analytical approach and sources
Some leads...
Limited function of vocational quota allotment
Having in mind not only credentials, but credible vocational competences – transparency of competences
Growing body of evidence on employer skill needs (but how will they be provided/implemented?)
Employee perspective? (skills survey)
Necessary involvement and coordination with employers: building functional linkages – with respect to training and content, leading to credible outcomes
Tradeoff: vocational skills and workplace training (facilitating insertion) vs. general competences (key for tertiary education and lifelong learning)
