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What’s Happening Out TherePolitical Scene Fall 2015
Presentation to Pacific Northwest Waterways Association
By John Horvick, DHM Research
October 8, 2015
2
Public’sMood
HorseRace
Economy &
Labor
Trade Q&AChanging Communities
3
HorseRace
Trump 24%
Carson 14%
Fiorina/Rubio 10%Bush 9%
Cruz 6%
Christie 4%Paul/Kasich/Huckabee 3%
Republican NominationHuffington Post
June 2015 October 2015
Republican NominationMarkets (PredicIt, Betfair)
0.000.000.000.010.01
0.020.02
0.040.04
0.050.070.07
0.110.26
0.30
0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35
George PatakiScott Walker
Lindsey GrahamRick Santorum
Bobby JindalRand Paul
Mike HuckabeeJohn Kasich
Chris ChristieTed Cruz
Ben CarsonCarly Fiorina
Donald TrumpJeb Bush
Marco Rubio
Prediction Market Prices
Republican NominationMarkets (PredicIt, Btffair)
0.000.000.000.010.01
0.020.02
0.040.04
0.050.070.07
0.110.26
0.30
0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35
George PatakiScott Walker
Lindsey GrahamRick Santorum
Bobby JindalRand Paul
Mike HuckabeeJohn Kasich
Chris ChristieTed Cruz
Ben CarsonCarly Fiorina
Donald TrumpJeb Bush
Marco Rubio
Prediction Market Prices
Establishment: 64%
Outsider: 30%
Democratic NominationHuffington Post
Clinton 43%
Sanders 25%
Biden 20%
ChafeeO’MalleyWebb
1-2%
June 2015 October 2015
Democratic NominationMarkets (PredicIt, Betfair)
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.15
0.17
0.63
0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70
Jim Webb
Lincoln Chafee
Al Gore
Elizabeth Warren
Martin OMalley
Bernie Sanders
Joe Biden
Hillary Clinton
Prediction Market Prices
17%
28%
24%
22%
40%
31%
26%
33%
36%
31%
19%
13%
20%
18%
12%
17%
19%
13%
8%
7%
16%
14%
11%
17%
10%
Job Performance
Approve strongly Approve somewhat Oppose somewhat Oppose strongly Don't know
Pope Francis
Net +
+52
Ron Wyden
Kate Brown
Patty Murray
Jay Inslee
+32
+24
+22
+12
17%
30%
29%
29%
33%
29%
41%
42%
37%
40%
43%
42%
46%
53%
35%
33%
32%
31%
16%
23%
24%
19%
20%
22%
19%
16%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Large business
Small business
Balancing the state budget
Government spending
Taxes
Earthquake preparedness
Energy
Needs of those in the middle class
Transporation
K-12 education
Health care
Housing
Needs of those in poverty
Party Trust
Republicans Democrats
17%
30%
29%
29%
33%
29%
41%
42%
37%
40%
43%
42%
46%
53%
35%
33%
32%
31%
16%
23%
24%
19%
20%
22%
19%
16%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Large business
Small business
Balancing the state budget
Government spending
Taxes
Earthquake preparedness
Energy
Needs of those in the middle class
Transporation
K-12 education
Health care
Housing
Needs of those in poverty
Party Trust
Republicans Democrats
13
Public’sMood
All things considered, do you feel things in Oregon are headed in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track?
64%
34%
49%
36%
52%58%
21%
51%
35%
50%
31% 31%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Right Direction Wrong Track
26%
30%
35%
40%
43%
44%
53%
58%
73%
United States (October)
Arizona (August)
Colorado (May 2014)
California (May)
Washington (June)
Idaho (July)
Nevada (May)
Oregon (September)
Utah (January)
Right Direction by State
25%
12%
29%
32%
Much closer Somewhat closer
54%
The political process of electing representatives and passing laws is messy, but in the end it works best for everyone.
44%
Political Process Good for Everyone or Good for the Powerful?
The political process is horribly broken and is rigged to benefit the most powerful
MOST IMPORTANT ISSUES
K-12 public educationJobs & the economy
Taxes and government spendingRoads and transportationCrime and public safety
Environmental protectionPoverty and homelessness
Income inequality and minimum wageAbortion, same sex marriage, presidential elections
18
VOTER KNOWLEDGECannot name the three branches of government
Cannot name the source of their drinking water supply
Cannot names the candidates for governor or senator
50%
50%+
60%+
19
Economy&
Labor
20
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Oregon Unemployment Rate
11.6%
6.1%
US: 5.1%Washington: 5.3%Idaho: 4.2%
Concern about personal financial situation
21
66% 71% 71%65%
52%62% 60%
March 2011 September2011
January 2012 April 2013 September2014
December 2014 April 2015
Somewhat/very
22
23
Support for Minimum $15 Minimum Wage: Oregon & Washington
26%
29%
13%
16%
18%
14%
39%
37%
4%
5%
Oregon
Washington
Support -- strongly Support -- somewhat Oppose -- somewhat Oppose -- strongly Don't know
24
~30%
~20%
$11 - $12
Support for Minimum Wage Increases in Oregon and Washington
do not support any increase in the minimum wage
Support increasing minimum wage to $15+
Median preferred minimum wage
Approve or Disapprove of Labor Unions (US)(Gallup)
48%
52% 52% 52%54% 53%
58%
45%
41%42% 42%
39%38%
36%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Approve Disapprove
29%
29%
23%
17%
2%
Approve or disapprove of labor unions
Approve stongly Approve somewhat Disapprove somewhat Disapprove stongly Don't know
Approval
Total: 58%
Dem: 86%NAV/Other: 62%
Rep: 16%
27
Trade
47% 43%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
How important for Oregon is it to supportdevelopment of international trade: not
at all important, not very important,somewhat important, or very important?
Not at all important Not very important Somewhat important Very important Don’t know
Importance of Trade: Portland Metro
View Foreign Trade Mostly as an Opportunity for the US(Gallup)
51%
38% 36%
47%
66%
61%
55% 56%
46%48%
51% 51%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Democrats Republicans
Bush Obama
Support for Coal and Oil Transport
21%
18%
35%
29%
15%
18%
8%
16%
15%
19%
Support-strongly Support-somewhat Oppose-somewhat Oppose-strongly Don't know
Do you support or oppose transporting coal through the Pacific Northwest and exporting it to other countries from ports in Oregon and Washington?
Do you support or oppose transporting oil through the Pacific Northwest to reach West Coast refineries, with the refined oil being used for domestic purposes?
31
ChangingCommunities
43
35
33
31
24
42
35
29
32
27
20
White
Asian
Native American
African American
Hispanic
Two or more
Oregon National
Median Age by Race
US Median Income and Net Wealth by Race (2014/2013 dollars, US Census/Federal Reserve)
$35,000
$41,000
$58,000
$67,000
$11,000
$14,000
$134,000
$91,000
AfricanAmerican
Hispanic
White
Asian
Net Wealth Income
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
All Oregonians Adult Oregonians All Registered 2 of 4 4 of 4
Median Age by Vote History
37
Q&A