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What We Know (or think we know) About The Economic Impact of COVID-19

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Before We Talk Economy, Let’s Take Quick Look at the Public Health Side of things!

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Cases Are Trending Up…

Data source: NY Times

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Deaths Are Trending Down…

Data source: NY Times

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Reopening…

Source: Safegraph (Weekly Pattern))

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One Strand is Not Like The Other…

Source: Safegraph

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…Now?

Source: Safegraph

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Just Google It12 Weeks Ago Latest (July 3)

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Just Google It12 Weeks Ago Latest (July 3)

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What We Are Thinking

Source: Ipsos

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So, About the Economy…

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Friday, May 8. Worst Economic Day In History…

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April Was a Rough Month…

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Five years of Jobs Gains Wiped Out…

-

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

Janu

ary-

10

April

-10

July

-10

Oct

ober

-10

Janu

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11

April

-11

July

-11

Oct

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-11

Janu

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April

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July

-12

Oct

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-12

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April

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July

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Oct

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April

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July

-14

Oct

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-14

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April

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July

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Oct

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April

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July

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April

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April

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July

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April

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Metro Atlanta: Total Employment - 2010 - Current

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Layoffs are Declining…

Source: GA DOL

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

03/07/2020 03/14/2020 03/21/2020 03/28/2020 04/04/2020 04/11/2020 04/18/2020 04/25/2020 05/02/2020 05/09/2020 05/16/2020 5/23/2020 5/30/2020 06/06/2020 06/13/2020 6/20/2020

UI Claims

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40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

03/07/2020 03/14/2020 03/21/2020 03/28/2020 04/04/2020 04/11/2020 04/18/2020 04/25/2020 05/02/2020 05/09/2020 05/16/2020 5/23/2020 06/06/2020 06/13/2020 6/20/2020

Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims by Industry

Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation and Warehousing Information

Real Estate Prof, Sci and Tech Administrative/Wast Mgmt Educational Services Health Care and Social Assistance

Arts, Ent, Rec Accomm/Food Services Other Services (Not Pub Admin)

Newly Unemployed Concentrated Where You Think They Are…

Arts, Entertainment

Food, Accommodation

Education

Health Care

Source: GA DOL

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Small Businesses Are Beginning To Close Again…

Source: Opportunity Insights (Womply)

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Consumer Spending Down

Source: Opportunity Insights (Affinity Solutions)

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Local Government Revenues Taking A Hit

Source: Georgia Department of Revenue, “Sales Tax Commodity Report,” Accessed July 7, 2020, via georgiadata.org

-30.0%

-25.0%

-20.0%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

Cherokee Clayton Cobb DeKalb Douglas Fayette Fulton Gwinnett Henry Rockdale

Year over Year Percent Change in Sales Tax Distributions

May-May June-June

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Low-Income Employment Declining Everywhere

Source: Opportunity Insights (Affinity Solutions)

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Percent of Threatened Workers Percent of People of ColorPercent of Low-BirthWeight BirthsPercent Lacking Health InsurancePercent in PovertyThreatened Workers Spatial Disparities

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What’s The Prognosis?

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Consensus?

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Mild caseScenario

500.4 jobs lost

-12.5% quarterly

-$26.5 income lost

Severe caseScenario

526.8 jobs lost

-11.8% quarterly

-$27.7 income lost

Critical caseScenario

538.4 jobs lost

-13.9% quarterly

-$28.3 income lost

Employment (in Thousands, 2020 Q1-Q4)

Gross Domestic Product (Percent change, Peak 2020 Q2)

Disposable Personal Income (in Bil of Current $s, 2020 Q1-Q4)

Atlanta MPO Economic Outlook

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Anything Else?

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Summing UpOther things we’re hearing and thinking about:

• Food Insecurity is about to become an even bigger now that the school year is over

• Majority of licensed child-care centers have temporarily closed

• Recent study showed a 3.5 to 5 percentage point drop in reading and math proficiency due to school closures/distance learning

• We’ve seen a SMALL spike in people unable to pay rents. How much worse will that get once eviction moratoria are lifted?

• Transportation is harder to access, so the new essential workforce has additional struggles with accessing the things they need

• A little more than 50% of Arts organizations (small sample) report concerns of being able to survive the economic downturn.

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Perspectives About Five Years from Now…“The shift towards remote work can potentially help better-educated senior citizens the most, enabling them to perform many jobs from the comfort of their homes or to participate in the so-called gig economy.”

- Mauro Guillén, Professor, Wharton School; Author, 2030: How Today’s Biggest Trends Will Collide and Reshape the Future of Everything

“In five years, many of us will still be working from office settings, but we will do so less often, with trepidation” - Melissa Gregg, Chief technologist, User Experience and Sustainability for Client Computing, Intel

“This is the time to build a new social contract between business and society, and to rebuild the economy in a more inclusive, equitable, and regenerative way.”

- Anthea Kelsick, Co-CEO, B Lab US and Canada

“Be prepared to see entirely new planned communities pop up that are built with the intention of balancing the demand for open space with the need for urban amenities.”

- Steve Nygren, Founder and CEO, Serenbe

“The pandemic (hopefully) has given us urgency to value and protect low-wage work in America in a whole new way.”- Ai-Jen Poo, Director, National Domestic Workers Alliance

“The next five years need to be a time of drastic reengineering of our systems and structures to eliminate health disparities and know that in crisis we have the ability to ensure that resources and care are allocated equitably.”

- Esther Choo, Associate Professor, Center for Policy & Research in Emergency Medicine, Oregon Health & Science University

https://qz.com/is/new-normal/

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Explore For Yourself!

https://neighborhoodnexus.org/covid19/ www.33n.atlantaregional.com