What Lies behind the Food Crisis in India and the Global South?

Utsa Patnaik,

Centre for Economic Studies and PlanningJawaharlal Nehru University

New Delhi, India

Chart 1a Sectoral Output and GDP per Head, 1981-2 to 2005-6

Sectoral Output per Head and GDP per Head, 1981-2 to 2005-6,Rupees in constant 1999-00 prices

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

1982

-3

1985

-6

1988

-9

1991

-2

1994

-5

1997

-8

2000

-1

2003

-4

2005

-6

GDPPRIMARYSECONDTERTIARY

Chart 1b Share of Sectors in GDP, constant 1999-00 values

Sector Shares in GDP, Constant 1999-00 Values

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1982

-3

1985

-6

1988

-9

1991

-2

1994

-5

1997

-8

2000

-1

2003

-4

2006

-7

Perc

ent o

f GD

P

PRIMARYSECONDARYTERTIARY

Chart 2a Annual Growth Rate per decade of Development and Total Expenditure, 1970-79 to 1990-99

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1970-79 1980-89 1990-99

Annual Growth Rates per Decade of Development and Total Expenditures, %

DEV. EXPTOTAL EXP

Chart 2b Annual Growth Rate of Spending on Economic and Social Services by States, 1972-79 to 1990-1999

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1972-79 1980-89 1990-99

Annual Growth rates per Decade of Spending on Economic and Social Services by States 1972 to

1999

ECON. SEVICES

SOCIAL SERVCES

Chart 2c Decline in Rural Development Spending,

1985-90 to 2003-4

Rural Develeopment Expenditure and Infrastructure Expenditure as Percent of NNP

under Economic Reforms

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1985-90 1993-4 1995-6 1997-8 2000-1 2003-4

Perc

ent o

f NNP

RDEIFE

Chart 3a Unemployment Rates 1993-4 and 2004-5, All-India Rural, Female Workers

Weekly and Daily Status Unemployment Rates, 1993-4 and 2004-5

0102030

40506070

8090

100

1993-4 2004-5

Weekly statusDaily Status

Chart 3b. Unemployment Rates during 1993-4 and 2004-5, All-India Rural, Male Workers

0102030405060708090

1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr

EastWestNorth

Weekly and Daily Status Unemployment Rates, 1993-4 and 2004-5

0

20

40

60

80

100

1993-4 2004-5

Unem

ploy

men

t Rat

es

Weekly status

Daily Status

Chart 4a Coconut Price Trend in India compared to Indonesia and Philippines, 1991 to 2003

0

50

100

150

200

250

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

Pric

e in

US

$ pe

r Ton

ne

INDO NESIAINDIAPHILIPPINES

Chart 4b Index of Coconut Price 1991 to 2003, base 1991=100

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

Inde

x of

Coc

onut

Pro

duce

r Pric

e, 1

991=

100

INDO NESIA

INDIAPHILIPPINES

Chart 4c Price Trend of Pepper 1999-00 to 2004-05

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

1999-00

2000-01

2001-02

2002-03

2003-04

2004-05

Price in US$ per Tonne

Internation al PriceDomestic Price

Vietnam M Price

Indonesia M Price

Chart 4d Index of Pepper Price 1999-00 to 2004-05 with base 1999-00 = 100

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1999

-00

2000

-01

2201

-02

2002

-03

2003

-04

2004

-05

Inde

x of

Pric

e, 1

999-

00=1

00

Internation al PriceDomestic Price

Vietnam M Price

Indonesia M Price

Chart 4e Recent Price Changes, March to December 2008 (Rs. Per Quintal except Cardamom which is Rs. Per 10 kg)

Price change from March to December 2008

0 5000 10000 15000

Coffee

Cardamom

Rubber

Coconut

December

JulyMarch

Chart 5 Farmer Suicide Rate compared to General Suicide Rate 2001

Farmer Suicide Rate compared with General Suicide Rate, Census 2001

02468

101214161820

Male Female

Num

ber p

er 1

00,0

00

Farmer Suicide RateGeneral Suicide Rate

Chart 6 Direct, Indirect and Total Demand for Grain with Rising Income

Chart 7a Decadal average Foodgrains Growth rate and Population Growth rate, 1981 to 2008

Decade average Foodgrain Output Growth and Population Growth Rates, 1980-1 to 2007-8

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

1981-90 1991-2000 2001-08

Perc

ent p

er a

nnum

FG

POP

Chart 7b Foodgrains Output and Availability per Capita, India 1989-90 to 2007-08 in Kilograms per Annum

Note : Output is Net Output = 0.87.5 times Gross OutputAvailability = Net Output + Net Imports – Net Addition to Public Stocks. Both variables divided by total population for per capita values. Chart updated to 2007-08 from Patnaik, 2007b

(Triennial average in Kg. per Annum)

135140145150155160165170175180185

1991-92

1994-95

1997-98

2000-01

2003-04

2006-07

Food

grai

ns, K

g. p

er C

apita

OUTPUTAVAILABILITY

Chart 7c Change in Protein Intake, Gms per Capita, 2004-5 compared to 1993-4

Change in Protein Intake, Gms. per Capita , 2004-5 compare to 1993-4

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60

Change in Protein Intake

Cum

ulat

ive

perc

ent o

f Pe

rson

s

Percent of Persons

Chart 7d Output per Capita per annum of Cereals and Starchy Roots in China, 1988 to 2002, in

KilogramsPer capita supplies of cereals and starchy roots, China, 1988-

2002 (Kgs)

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

cereals

starchy roots

Chart 7e Six most populous Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa: Index of per Capita Cereals and All

Food staples Output, Base 1979-81 = 100

Six Most Populous Countries : Index of per Capita Cereals and All Food staples Output, Base

1979-81 = 100

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1980 1988 1998

Cereals

All Food

Table 1 The Rural Poor as Percent of Rural Population in India

  1973-74 1993-94 2004-05

NSS ROUND: 28th 50th 61st

RURAL      

Direct Estimate      

MPCE, Rs. required for      

1. 2400 calories 56 325 790

2. 2200 calories 49 260 700

       

Percent of persons below      

3. 2400 calories 72 74.5 87

4. 2200 calories

56.4 58.5 69.5

Official Estimate      

5. Official poverty line, MPCE, Rs. 49 206 356

6. Poverty percentage 56.4 37.3 28.3

7. Calorie Intake at OPL 2200 1970 1820

Chart 8a Official and Directly estimated Poverty Lines, All-India Rural, 1973-4 to 2004-5 .

0100200300400500600700800900

1973-4

1977-8

1983 1993-4

2004-5M

onth

ly p

er c

apita

Exp

endi

ture

, R

s.

Official PLDirect PL

Source: Table 1 lines 1 and 5. Official poverty lines update the cost of a 1973-4 basket while direct poverty lines apply the official nutrition norm to the current data at each point of time

Chart 8b Official and Directly estimated percent of Persons in Poverty, All-India Rural, 1973-4 to 2004-5,

obtained by applying the respective Poverty Lines

0102030405060708090

100

1973

-4

1977

-819

83

1993

-4

2004

-5

Perc

ent o

f Per

sons

Official PovertyPercentageDirect PovertyPercentage

Source: Table 1, lines 3 and 6.

Chart 8c Declining Calorie Intake accessible at Official Poverty Lines, All-India Rural 1973-4 to 2004-5

0200400600800

1000120014001600

1973-4

1977-8

1983 1993-4

2004-5C

alor

ie In

take

per

day

per

cap

ita

Calories atOfficial PovertyLine less 1000Official Calorienorm less 1000

Source : Table 1 line 7

Chart 9 Per Capita Cereal Output per Annum in Kg., World 1963 to 2005 ( Five year average centred on specified year)

World Per Capita Cereal Output Kg.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2005

Kilo

gram

per

Ann

um, K

g.

Per Capita Cereal Kg.

Source: FAOSTAT after 1988 and for earlier years various issues, FAO Food Outlook

Chart 10 Use of Corn for Ethanol and declining net Output, USA

Use of Corn for Ethanol, USA

050

100150200250300350

2002-3 2007-8 2008-9

Mill

ion

Tonn

e Corn Output

Net of EthanoluseEthanol fromCorn

Source: US Department of Agriculture data