What is Likely to be the effect in Asia of Qatar’s plan ... · 1 What is Likely to be the effect in Asia of Qatar’s plan to increase LNG output by 30% Group 3 26，October 2018

1

What is Likely to be the effect in Asia of Qatar’s plan to increase

LNG output by 30%

Group 326，October 2018

2

Acknowledgements

3

Global Overview

Qatar LNG Industry Profile

China LNG Industry Profile and The Effect

Japan, South Korea & China-Taiwan LNGIndustry Profile and The Effect

Conclusion

Global LNG capacity distribution and the big picture of the market

4

LNG Trade Volumes, 1990-2017

Source: HIS Markit, IEA, IGU

5

LNG Exports and Market Share by Country (im MTPA)

Note: Numbers in the legend represent total 2017 exports in MT, followed by market share. Source: HIS Markit, IGU

Global Exporters of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) in 2017

6

LNG Exports by Region, 1990-2017 LNG Imports and Market Share by Country (in MTPA)

Global Importers of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) in 2017

7

Five of Last Year’s Leading LNG Importers

Source:GIIGNL LNG reports, Global Trade Tracker export-import trade statistics, HIS Markit

PresenterPresentation Notes　　

8

Global Overview





Qatar

PetroleumQatar Gas

Marketing

Ras Gas

QatarGas

Qatar-The LNG Industry

59%

41%

Asian

Data source: GIIGNL Annual Report on LNG Industry 2018

NATION SELLER BUYER ACQ(MPTA) DURATION DELIVERY FORMAT

Chugoku Electric, JERAKANSAI Electric,OsakaGas,TOHO Gas,TohokoElectric, Toko Gas

2 1998/2021 DES

0.75 2005/2024 DES0.75 2006/2025 DES4 1997/2021 DES1 2012/2021 DES

Shizuoka Gas 0.2 2012/2020 DESQATAR GAS II T1 Pakistan State Oil 3.75 2016/2031 DES

1.85 2009/2034 DES1.85 2009/2034 DES1.5 2009/2034 DES

CNOOC 2 2011/2035 DESJERA 1 2013/2028 DES

Kansai Electric 0.5 2013/2027 DESPGNiG 1.1 2015/2034 DESPTT 2 2015/2035 DES

RWE Supply&Trading 1.1 2016/2023 DESTohoku Electric 0.09 2016/2030 DES

Centrica 3 2014/2023 DESMarubeni 1 2011/2031 DES

PetroChina 3 2011/2036 DESPetroNas 1.14 2014/2023 DESUniper 1.5 2014/2018 DESEndesa 0.74 2005/2025 DESKOGAS 4.92 1999/2024 FOB

RAS Gas II T3 Petronet LNG 5 2004/2028 DESRAS Gas II T2 Edison 4.6 2009/2034 DES

CPC 3.08 2008/2032 FOBEDF Trading 3.4 2007/2027 DES

ENI 2.05 2007/2027 DESEDF 2 2017/2021 DES

KOGAS 2.1 2007/2026 DESPetronet LNG 2.5 2007/2026 FOB

EDF 1.5 2013/2032 DESKOGAS 2 2012/2032 DES

Petronet LNG 1 2016/2028 FOB

RAS Gas II T3

RAS Gas III T1

RAS Gas III T1

QATAR

QATAR GAS IGas Natural Fenosa

JERA

QATAR GAS II T2 TOTAL

QATAR GAS III

QATAR GAS IV

RAS Gas I

Qatar-The LNG Export Contracts

Sheet1

QATAR LNG Contracts 2017

NATIONSELLERBUYERACQ(MPTA)DURATIONDELIVERY FORMAT

QATARQATAR GAS IChugoku Electric, JERA KANSAI Electric,Osaka Gas,TOHO Gas,Tohoko Electric, Toko Gas21998/2021DES

Gas Natural Fenosa0.752005/2024DES

0.752006/2025DES

JERA41997/2021DES

12012/2021DES

Shizuoka Gas0.22012/2020DES

QATAR GAS II T1Pakistan State Oil3.752016/2031DES

QATAR GAS II T2TOTAL1.852009/2034DES

1.852009/2034DES

1.52009/2034DES

QATAR GAS IIICNOOC22011/2035DES

JERA12013/2028DES

Kansai Electric0.52013/2027DES

PGNiG1.12015/2034DES

PTT22015/2035DES

RWE Supply&Trading1.12016/2023DES

Tohoku Electric0.092016/2030DES

QATAR GAS IVCentrica32014/2023DES

Marubeni12011/2031DES

PetroChina32011/2036DES

PetroNas1.142014/2023DES

Uniper1.52014/2018DES

RAS Gas IEndesa0.742005/2025DES

KOGAS4.921999/2024FOB

RAS Gas II T3Petronet LNG52004/2028DES

RAS Gas II T2Edison4.62009/2034DES

RAS Gas II T3CPC3.082008/2032FOB

EDF Trading3.42007/2027DES

ENI2.052007/2027DES

RAS Gas III T1EDF22017/2021DES

KOGAS2.12007/2026DES

Petronet LNG2.52007/2026FOB

RAS Gas III T1EDF1.52013/2032DES

KOGAS22012/2032DES

Petronet LNG12016/2028FOB

Sheet1 (2)

QATAR LNG Contracts 2017

NATIONSELLERBUYERACQ(MPTA)DURATIONDELIVERY FORMAT

QATARQATAR GAS IChugoku Electric, JERA KANSAI Electric,Osaka Gas,TOHO Gas,Tohoko Electric, Toko Gas21998/2021DES

Gas Natural Fenosa0.752005/2024DES

0.752006/2025DES

JERA41997/2021DES

12012/2021DES

Shizuoka Gas0.22012/2020DES

QATAR GAS II T1Pakistan State Oil3.752016/2031DES

QATAR GAS II T2TOTAL1.852009/2034DES

1.852009/2034DES

1.52009/2034DES

QATAR GAS IIICNOOC22011/2035DES

JERA12013/2028DES

Kansai Electric0.52013/2027DES

PGNiG1.12015/2034DESPolish

PTT22015/2035DESsingapore

RWE Supply&Trading1.12016/2023DESeuropean

Tohoku Electric0.092016/2030DESJAPAN

QATAR GAS IVCentrica32014/2023DES

Marubeni12011/2031DES

PetroChina32011/2036DES

PetroNas1.142014/2023DES

Uniper1.52014/2018DES

RAS Gas IEndesa0.742005/2025DES

KOGAS4.921999/2024FOBKorea

RAS Gas II T3Petronet LNG52004/2028DESindian

RAS Gas II T2Edison4.62009/2034DESeuropean

RAS Gas II T3CPC3.082008/2032FOBTaiwan

EDF Trading3.42007/2027DESFrance

ENI2.052007/2027DESItalian

RAS Gas III T1EDF22017/2021DESFrance

KOGAS2.12007/2026DESKorea

Petronet LNG2.52007/2026FOBindian

RAS Gas III T1EDF1.52013/2032DES

KOGAS22012/2032DESKorea

Petronet LNG12016/2028FOBindian

69.97

41.28

59%

Asian Countries59%

Non Asian Countries41%

Asian CountriesNon Asian Countries0.590.41

Sheet2

Sheet3

Unit: MTPA

+3 GTL trains,+30% production capacity

North Field Expansion

+1 GTL trains,+13% production capacity

Qatar-The LNG Strategy I

Conclusion

Keep focus on Asian market, particularly in China

Australia, 43.59

Brunei

Indonesia, 19.63

Malysia, 25.02

NigeriaOman

Papua New Guinea

Qatar, 52.69

Russia, 10.7UNIT: MN Tonnes

Competition For Market Share Grows TOP 9 Asian LNG Exporters

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Qatar Market Share in Fast Growing Markets % Of Exports 2016

Qatar-The LNG Strategy II

13

Global Overview




Conclusion

14

In 2017, China grew up to the biggest natural gas importer of the world, and surpassed Korea as the second largest LNG importer.

Growth in demand for piped gas and LNG is the result of policies to reduce air pollution through coal to gas switching and continued economic expansion.

China-Campaign against air pollution

15

Gas demand grew by 31 billion cubic meters – up 15% from 2016.Total demand for LNG reached 38 million tons. Although contracted LNG supply doubled between 2014 and 2017, spot LNG buying occurred during winter to help meet strong demand.

China-The demand grew up fast as policy changed

16

US*, 2.1

Brazil, -Peru, 0.1T&T, 0.2 Norway, 0.2

OTHER EROUP,

0.5Russian , 0.6Oman, 0.3

Qatar, 10.3

UAE, -

Algeria, 0.1Angola, 0.4Egypt, 0.1

Equatorial Guinea, 0.1Nigeria, 0.5Australia, 23.7

Brunei, 0.2

Indonesia, 4.2

Malaysia, 5.8 PNG, 3.0

other Asia Pacific*, 0.3

Australia、Qatar、Malaysia、Indonesia、PNG、US contributed the main proportion of the import resource. And with the procurement startup of Gorgon、APLNG and CURTIS plants，maybe Australia implement a escalating role upon the supply to China ，with long term SPA with all the three major SOE player. To 2017,Australia had become the largest single supply country upon LNG.

China-Australia and QG constitute more than half of importing resource

17

China-Infrastructural bottleneck

18

Global Overview




Conclusion

19

Japan-profile

• Developed country with Mature LNG Market (1st LNG buyer in the world)

Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2016

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

Japan's LNG Imports (mt/y)

Fukushima Nuclear incident

Fukushima accident cause a significant increase in LNG consumption in 2011.

Australia31%

Malaysia18%Qatar

12%

Federation9%

Indonesia8%

Arab Emirates5%

New Guinea5%

Brunei4%

Oman3%

Nigeria2%

US*1%

Others2%

Qatar is the 3rd largest LNG supplier of Japanese Market.

20

Japan-Projection

Sources: GECF & Japan’s ministry for economy, trade and industry-new 2030 National Energy Plan

Japan’s Power Generation Mix(pre- & post- Fukushima)

2030

Japan’s LNG demand and share of nuclear in energy mix

• Total power generation in Japan may fall due to power conservation policies, a shrinking population, and weak economic growth.

• Nuclear restart may bring down the LNG demand to 65MTPA in 2030 from 84MTPA in 2017.

• What’s the situation currently?

21

• 2012

• 2017

Source: Korea Energy Statistical information System

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Korea’s LNG Imports

Import Volume (mt/y) Amount (US $million)

South Korea-profile

• What will happen in the future?

22

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

40.00

45.00

2018 2024 2031

Korea’s LNG Import Projection(mt/y)

City Gas PG

Source: Ministry of Trade, Industry, and Energy (MOTIE), April 2018.

Country Project Volume (mt/y)Contract

Ends

QatarRasGas 4.92 2024RasGas II 2 2032RasGas III 2.1 2026

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110

US LNG Qatar LNG

Korea aims at diversifying its LNG supply sources.

South Korea-Projection

23

Current Status Government Targets by 2025

Source: IHS Markit

China-Taiwan-Profile

24

Taiwan LNG Import –May 2018

Taiwan’s LNG demand continues to rise rapidly, with imports up by 11.2% in the first five months of 2018. The country imported a record 16.8 mt of the fuel in 2017, which represented growth of 12.2% on an annual basis.Taiwan could import nearly 20 mt of LNG in 2018 as a whole, which would bring it close to overtaking.

China-Taiwan-LNG Imports

Taiwan’s key LNG suppliers are Qatar, Malaysia, and Indonesia, long-term contracts

https://www.eia.gov/beta/international/analysis.cfm?iso=QAThttps://www.eia.gov/beta/international/analysis.cfm?iso=MYShttps://www.eia.gov/beta/international/analysis.cfm?iso=IDN

25

Global Overview




Conclusion

26

Conclusion

Qatar Abundant resources Low production cost Geographical location Experienced in drilling Strong LNG shipping

Australia's liquefaction capacity is expected to surpass Qatar by 2020

The success of the US “Shale Gas Revolution” has continuously increased the self-sufficiency and independence of US natural gas.

Russia, Sino-Russian energy cooperation project - Yamal LNG project will build three annual production of 5.5 million tons of LNG production line

Energy geopolitical factors such as tensions between Arab countries and regional political instability.

Relations of the Gulf Cooperation Council.

A 30% increase in production will help strengthen Qatar's voice in the global energy market and maintain its crown as the world's number 1 exporter of LNG.

External Environment

NeighborhoodSurroundings

PresenterPresentation Notes

27

Promote Asian spot LNG market transactions

Attracting countries with high peak demand in winter, such as China and South Korea

Australia's policies to China will be more active and attractive

Relieve the impact of Asian premium

Conclusion

What is Likely to be the effect in Asia of Qatar’s plan to increase LNG output by 30%

What is Likely to be the effect in Asia of Qatar’s plan to increase� LNG output by 30%��Group 3�26，October 2018Slide Number 2Slide Number 3Global LNG capacity distribution and the big picture of the market Slide Number 5Slide Number 6Slide Number 7Slide Number 8Slide Number 9Slide Number 10Slide Number 11Slide Number 12Slide Number 13Slide Number 14Slide Number 15Slide Number 16Slide Number 17Slide Number 18Slide Number 19Slide Number 20Slide Number 21Slide Number 22Slide Number 23Slide Number 24Slide Number 25Slide Number 26Slide Number 27Slide Number 28

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What is Likely to be the effect in Asia of Qatar’s plan ... · 1 What is Likely to be the effect in Asia of Qatar’s plan to increase LNG output by 30% Group 3 26，October 2018