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What is happening in the European Union on climate change?. Artur Runge-Metzger European Commission. 1. European Union – present situation. The EU’s projected progress towards its Kyoto Commitments. The EU’s share of greenhouse gas emissions. Energy mix, EU-15, business as usual. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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European Commission: DG Environment
What is happening in the European Union on
climate change?
Artur Runge-Metzger
European Commission
European Commission: DG Environment
1. European Union – present situation
European Commission: DG Environment
The EU’s projected progress towards its Kyoto Commitments
90
92
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96
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
base
year em
issi
ons=
100
EU-25 emissions
EU-25 existing measures
EU-25 additionalmeasures
EU-15 emissions
EU-15 existing measures
EU-15 additionalmeasures
EU-15 target (Kyoto)
Business as usual
Linear target path
Kyoto mechanisms andcarbon sinks
European Commission: DG Environment
The EU’s share of greenhouse gas emissions
Figure 1: Projected development of greenhouse gas emissions in different regions of the world
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1990 2050
Gig
aton
nes
CO
2 eq
uiv
alen
ts
Rest of World
Other annex 1
EU
Source: Greenhouse gas reduction pathways in the UNFCCC process up to 2025, CNRS/LEPII-EPE, RIVM/MNP, ICCS-NTUA, CES-KUL (2003).
European Commission: DG Environment
Energy mix, EU-15, business as usual
European Commission: DG Environment
Europeans are feeling the ‘heat’
Europe has warmed more than the global average, with a 0.95 °C increase since 1900.
Temperatures in winter have increased more than in summer.
The warming has been greatest in the most northern latitudes and the Iberian Peninsula.
From 1990 to 2100, the global average temperature is projected to increase by 1.4–5.8 °C and 2–6.3 °C for Europe.
European Commission: DG Environment
The extreme summer 2003 could become normal in a few decades onlyAverage temperature for June July August 2003: Observations ( + ) simulation with scenario A2
Source: Meteo France
2003
European Commission: DG Environment
2. Selected EU policies and actions
European Commission: DG Environment
European Commission: DG Environment
EU climate policies: The ‘broadbrush’ overview
1st commitment period
US EU
Monitoring Decision
2000 2001 2003 2010 20111999 20042002
ECCP I
EU ETSEU ETS DirectiveLinking DirectiveRegistries RegulationMonitoring, Reporting Verification Guidelines
ECCP IISectoral studies
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2012
Kyoto in force
US withdraws
Marrakech Accords
Kyoto agreed
Preparation Negotiated In force Review
European Commission: DG Environment
European Climate Change Programme (ECCP) – engagement of social actors
Working groups- Emissions trading- Flexible mechanisms- Energy supply- Energy demand- end-use equipment- Transport- Industry- Fluorinated gasses- Research- Agriculture- Sinks agr. soils- Forestry sinks
ECCP steering committee
ECCP Principles •integration •transparency•stakeholder consultation
•group expertise •build consensus
ECCP Approach •reduction potential•cost-effective•cross-sectoral•time frame for implem.•ancillary effects
WG Reports/
P&M analysed
conclusions
Commission action plan
European Commission: DG Environment
ECCP:Recently adopted domestic
measuresCross-cutting issues• Directive on GHG emissions trading within the Community (Oct. 2003)• Linking project-based mechanisms to GHG emissions trading (Oct. 2004)• Decision for monitoring Community GHG emissions and for implementing the Kyoto Protocol (Feb. 2004)
Energy• Directive on the promotion of renewable energy sources (Sept. 2001) • Directive on taxation of energy products (Oct. 2003)• Directive on energy performance of buildings (Jan. 2003)• Directive on the promotion of co-generation (CHP) (Feb. 2004)
Transport• Promotion of the use of bio-fuels for transport
Agriculture (Biofuels, Cross compliance), Landfill Directive
European Commission: DG Environment
Emissions trading: EU is implementing a company-based scheme since 1.1.2005
CO2 emissions from energy intensive industry above specific capacity thresholds (45 – 50 % of EU CO2 emissions)
Around 10,500 installations electricity generators heat & steam production mineral oil refineries ferrous metals: production
& processing cement, lime glass, bricks and
ceramics pulp & paper sector
European Commission: DG Environment
Use of Kyoto Mechanisms: Planned purchases by Member States (in addition to company use!)
Almost 520 Million tonnes of CO2eq (2008-2012)
Allocated resources thus far: € 2.7 billion
Million tonnes of CO2 eq.
Austria 35.00
Belgium 42.00
Denmark 22.50
Finland At least 3.0
Ireland 18.50
Italy 198.00
Luxembourg 15.00
Netherlands 100.00
Spain 100.00
Sweden At least 5.0
European Commission: DG Environment
ECCP “push” policies: Development and demonstration of new technologies
Research & Technology Development: 6th Framework Programme (5-yr): energy (€ 800
million), transport (€ 600 million), global change and ecosystems (€ 700 million) or more than € 420 mill p.a.
Financial Perspectives 2007-2013 (state of negotiations): energy (€ 2.2 billion), transport (€ 4.1 billion), environment (€ 1.8 billion) or more than € 1.1 billion p.a.
Technology Platforms: hydrogen and fuel cells, zero emission fossil fuel power plants
Demonstration programmes: Intelligent Energy for Europe (e.g. ALTENER, SAVE,
COOPENER, STEER) LIFE, LIFE+ Competitiveness and Innovation Programme (2007-
2013, proposed)
European Commission: DG Environment
ECCP:Ongoing domestic legislative
work….
Energy• Proposal for a framework directive on eco-efficiency
requirements for energy-using products• Proposal for a Directive on energy end-use efficiency and
energy servicesTransport• Proposal for improvements in infrastructure use and charging • Proposal on special tax arrangements for diesel fuel used for
commercial purposes and on the alignment of excise duties on petrol and diesel fuel
• Proposal for a regulation on the granting of Community financial assistance to improve the environmental performance of the freight transport system (Marco Polo I and II program)
Products• Proposal for legislative action on fluorinated gases
European Commission: DG Environment
ECCP II long-term challenge: Making the EU fit for post-2012
Aviation – Start Nov. 2005 Legislative proposal Integrated approach on CO2 emissions of light duty
vehicles – Start December 2005 Revised Community strategy to reduce CO2 emissions from light-duty vehicles (end 2006)
Carbon dioxide capture and geological storage – start March 2006 (report June 2006) Legislative proposal (2007)
Impacts and Adaptation – start April 2006 Green Paper on adaptation (November 2006)
EU ETS Review – start after the summer break 2006 legislative proposal mid-2007
Sectoral studies – 2006-08: In-depth sectoral studies assessing emission potential and establishing marginal abatement costs groundwork for legislative proposals after 2008
European Commission: DG Environment
3. Building together another future
European Commission: DG Environment
The EU’s level of aspiration
22°C°C
European Commission: DG Environment
Deep reductions are required
• Non-action is not a feasible option. The more action is postponed, the greater the risk of irreversible change
• Well below 550 ppm• Global emissions likely to grow within next
two decades and then reduce by at least 15 % but perhaps as much as 50 % by 2050 compared to 1990
• Explore pathways for industrialised countries to reach cuts of 15 – 30 % by 2020, 60 – 80 % by 2050 compared to 1990
• “Keeping the door open” strategy
European Commission: DG Environment
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
GH
G E
mis
sion
s [G
tCo2
eq]
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
GD
P (
2000
val
ue =
100)
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
emissions 650 ppmemissions 550 ppmGDP referenceGDP 650 ppmGDP 550 ppm
Reducing global emissions is affordable through global action
Reversing global emission trends by 2025 would reduce global GDP in 2025 by about 2.4 % compared to BAU while GDP would more than double – assuming gradual participation of all countries
European Commission: DG Environment
- negotiation space
Five essential elements:1. Build on Kyoto2. Broaden participation 3. Include more sectors and all gases4. Deploy and develop technologies5. Adapt to the effects of residual climate
change
European Commission: DG Environment
Total BAU investment: US$ 17 trillion incl. Universal Access to Electricity until 2030
Price tag for climate-friendly: + 15 % = US$ 2.6 trillion in 25 years (~ 0.3 % of global annual GDP); i.e. approximately US$ 100 billion per year of which ~ 50 % in developing countries (IBRD: US$ 20–120 billion)
Whatever we decide, we must rise to the challenge: e.g. incremental finance required in the energy sector
European Commission: DG Environment
Total BAU investment: US$ 17 trillion incl. Universal Access to Electricity until 2030
Price tag for climate-friendly: + 15 % = US$ 2.6 trillion in 25 years (~ 0.3 % of global annual GDP); i.e. approximately US$ 100 billion per year of which ~ 50 % in developing countries (IBRD: US$ 20–120 billion)
Annual Official Development Assistance (ODA) = US$ 100 billion (- but only US$ 6.2 billion for the energy sector)
World Bank (2005): US$ 1.8 billion for the energy sector
Global Environment Facility = US$ 1.7 billion over 14 years
CDM: US$ 5-7 billion for 2008-2012
Whatever we decide, we must rise to the challenge: e.g. incremental finance required in the energy sector
European Commission: DG Environment
Creating international political momentum
Platforms: UNFCCC G8, esp. Gleneagles Dialogue, IBRD Investment Framework,
IEA Bilateral Summits (US, Russia, India, China, Japan…) Climate Change & Energy Partnerships (India, China,
Russia…) Strengthen policy analysis and dialogue (e.g. BASIC, IEA…) US-led technology initiatives (CSLF, hydrogen,…)
Instruments: Carbon Market, e.g. Clean Development Mechanism (€ 2.7
billion from MS, total 2.1 bn tonnes CO2eq by 2012 of which almost 90 % through CDM)
Country Strategy-based funding (e.g. policy dialogues, Energy-Environment-Programs)
New Public and Public/Private Partnership funding instruments: European Investment Bank/funding for CCS
Research and Technology Development Funds
European Commission: DG Environment
http://http://europa.eu.int/europa.eu.int/comm/comm/environment/environment/climat/climat/home_en.htmhome_en.htm