What do We know about the Democrat’s Agenda?

Barack Obama won a huge and historic victory Tuesday to become the nation's44th president. But how he governs may well be decided at the other end ofPennsylvania Avenue, where, ironically, the swollen Democratic majority thatswept into office with him could moderate the party.

Throughout the election season, the Senate has been considered the bellwetherfor Democrats' ability to push through their agenda during the next Congress. IfDemocrats could claim 60 Senate seats--an outcome that is still unknown--theirmajority would be filibuster-proof.

But the party's margin of victory in the House of Representatives actuallyprovides a better picture of what its control over government will look like.Fiscally conservative "Blue Dog" Democrats--not just liberals from urban centers--and more traditional Democrats from the West and South rode the electoralwave this time around. In Alabama, Blue Dog-endorsed candidates ParkerGriffith and Bobby Bright pulled off victories. In Arizona, Ann Kirkpatrick, who'sprogressive on many issues but also supports the right to bear arms, won herrace.

"The House, in my mind, is really a reflection of how big the wave is," says JimBonham, a lobbyist with Steptoe & Johnson and a former executive director ofthe Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

In all, Democrats picked up a projected 22 seats in the House to give them a251-173 edge over the Republicans--a big move but not the 30-seat gain punditsexpected. In the Senate, where several races remain contested, Democratsgained at least five seats, plumping their ranks to 56 (if you include twoIndependents), compared with 40 Republicans.

Still, expect the bolstered party to act quickly in several areas. These includeexpansion of the State Children's Health Insurance program, vetoed by President

Bush last year. Also high on the agenda: passage of the Employee Free ChoiceAct, which business groups like the U.S. Chamber of Commerce oppose on thegrounds that it grants more power to labor unions.

According to Bonham, tax policy will also be a priority, "for no other reason thanthat the Bush tax cuts will be expiring."

Other items, like health care reform and establishing a revamped national energypolicy and a financial services regulatory plan, will take longer. They'recontroversial and grab a ton of lobbying attention.

 

So will reform of the financial system. "Congress would be moving quiteexpeditiously if they were to complete it by the end of 2010," says WilliamDonovan, an attorney with law firm Venable who has worked with congressionalcommittees on financial issues.

Among the changes that could be made: streamlining of banks' regulatorystructure, the implementation of capital requirements and increased powers for theFederal Reserve. Expect Congress to move more quickly on the consumer side offinancial reform, including passing a credit card owner's "bill of rights" andallowing bankruptcy judges to alter mortgage terms.

Dan Mica, a former Democratic congressman from Florida and now chiefexecutive of the Credit Union National Association, says the party in power willtweak lobbying rules, making influence more transparent. "I could envision themtaking each policy paper that a lobbyist presents to them and putting it on theWeb" for the public to see, he says of the new Democrats in power.

Even before the next Congress arrives in January, there will be shake-ups on theHill. Obama will move swiftly to announce his staff and Cabinet nominees. He'svowed to include members of both parties. He is expected to name Rep. RahmEmanuel as his chief of staff, possibly as early as Wednesday, a move thatwould rob House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., of one of her most effectivelieutenants.

In addition, there's likely to be some maneuvering among some key committeechairmen. Donovan says it is unknown whether Sen. Chris Dodd, D-Conn., whohas been instrumental in his role as chairman of the Senate's banking committee,will remain in his post, as he may take another committee chairmanship.

Democrats want to get to the business of governing as quickly as possible, solook for them to move quickly in determining who chairs and sits on whichcommittees--a process Donovan describes as competitive and potentiallycontentious.

"It's helpful to get any of that contentiousness and competitiveness behind you,"he says. And difficult too.