What causes the disputes between Japan and South Korea?

Kan KimuraProfessor, Graduate School of

International Cooperation Studies

Kobe University

Outline• Introduction to today’s situation• The reason for failed cooperation

between Japan and South Korea• The reason for the perception gap

between the two countries• How to change this situation

Deadlocked Japan-ROK Relations

• After Lee Myung-bak’s visit to Takeshima/Dokdo in Aug. 2012, diplomatic cooperation between the two countries became deadlocked.

• Public opinion in each country also maintains a very strong stance against the other.

• There are no active movements in either country to improve relations.

• In Japan, in particular, anti-Korean sentiment is clearly growing.

Long- and short-term trends • Complicated historical and territorial

issues between the two countries as constants (a)

• Frequency of the disputes as the dependent variable (y)

• Importance of the counterpart as the independent variable (x)

• Hypothesis: f(x-a)=y and if x-a<0, we will see a dramatic increase in the disputes

Frequency of keywords accompanying the term “Japan” in Chosun-ilbo articles

교과서 위안부 정신대 야스쿠니 /야스꾸니 신사 + 참배 독도 독립운동 친일파 배상

Keyword Textbook Comfort woman

Volunteer labor corps Yasukuni Shinto shrine

+ WorshipDokdo/

TakeshimaIndepedence

movement Collaborator Compensation

教科書 慰安婦 挺身隊 靖国 神社 + 参拝 独島 独立運動 親日派 賠償

1945-49 0 0 0.0016 0 0 0.0243 0.0089 0.0251 0.038

1950-54 0 0 0 0 0 0.0844 0.0075 0.0021 0.0139

1955-59 0.0006 0 0 0 0 0.0135 0.0188 0.0009 0.0074

1960-64 0 0 0 0 0 0.0112 0.013 0.0004 0.0049

1965-69 0.0006 0 0 0 0 0.0198 0.0207 0.0008 0.0023

1970-74 0.0005 0 0 0.0011 0.0012 0.005 0.0077 0 0.0014

1975-79 0.0004 0.0002 0 0.0002 0.0004 0.0185 0.009 0.0002 0.0011

1980-84 0.0555 0 0.001 0.0002 0.0019 0.0095 0.0094 0 0.0008

1985-89 0.0152 0 0.0008 0.0004 0.0025 0.0084 0.0154 0.0004 0.0008

1990-94 0.0068 0.098 0.1757 0.0034 0.018 0.0327 0.0484 0.0056 0.0079

1995-99 0.0084 0.0364 0.0169 0.0019 0.0064 0.0542 0.0618 0.0016 0.0111

2000-04 0.0233 0.0332 0.0058 0.0125 0.029 0.0457 0.0371 0.0034 0.0029

2005-09 0.0114 0.0242 0.0034 0.0265 0.0193 0.1594 0.0406 0.0076 0.0025

2000-14 0.0148 0.0786 0.0051 0.0221 0.0176 0.1031 0.0182 0.003 0.0055

Keyword197

8198

3199

0199

3199

6200

0200

4First Japan-Korea Treaty (1904) A B B B B A A

Second Japan-Korea Treaty (1905) B A A A B AThird Japan-Korean Treaty (1907) B B

Hague Secret Emissary Affair B B B B B AResidents-General B A A A A A A

An Jung-Geun AJapan-Korea Annexation Treaty A 　 A A A A A A

Governor-General of Korea A 　 A A A A AColonial Era Land Reforms B B B B B A

March 1st Movement B B A A B A AKōminka Movement B B B B A

Sōshi-Kaimei B B B B ARighteous Armies Protests B B B A AGreat Kantō Earthquake A

Comfort Women B AForced Labor A

A: Boldface font B: Normal font

Keywords regarding Korea-Japan relations in Japanese textbooks (Survey of Senior High School textbooks published by Tokyo Shoseki)

Amount of trade with South Korea

Share in Japanese trade

Shares in Chinese Trade

Why does Japan’s “value-oriented diplomacy” approach not work today?

• Japan clearly regarded China as the most important challenger to this approach.

• Japan expects this approach to be welcomed in countries around China as a starting point for relations with Japan.

→ This means that today’s Japan regards China as a “natural” hypothetical enemy and expects other nations to share this understanding.

However…• South Koreans today regard China as

one of their two most important partners, along with the United States.

• Improvement of relations with China is one of the most important diplomatic policies of the Park Geun-hye government.

Reasons for the perception gap

1) Different levels of economic dependency on China

2) “Actual” territorial disputes3) Different messages from the

United States on US-China rivalry

Trade with China/GDP

Trade with Korea/GDP

Trade with Japan/GDP

Year

China - 2.9　　 3.3 2013

Korea 17.5 - 7.2 2013

Japan 6.3 1.8 - 2013

M. of US$ ％ ％

TRADE DEPENDECY

Number Tons AircraftCarrier Destroyer Frigat

e Submarine (with Aegis system)

(Nuclear Submarine)

ROK 190 19.2 0 12(3) 9 12China 1090 135.2 1 26 52 56(8)Japan 143 45.1 0 42(6) 6 16

Economic Dependency on China

Expected US military role

Result Major threat to security

Effect on relations with China

Plus Minus

Sector Business Security

Japan Not Active Active Hard-line Policy China → Minus

South Korea Very Active Not Active Soft-line Policy DPRK → Plus

Conservatives in each nation have different ideas about China

What can we do about this situation?

• We need to re-establish discourse about why Japan-ROK relations are important for each country.

• The discourse has to be understood by normal people.

• On historical/territorial issues, we need more open academic research in front of the international community.

References• Kan Kimura. “Discovery of Disputes: Collective Memories on

Textbooks and Japanese–South Korean Relations.” Journal of Korean Studies 17, No. 1, Spring 2012.

• Kan Kimura. “Why Are the Issues of ‘Historical Perceptions’ between Japan and South Korea Persisting?” Journal of International Cooperation Studies 19, No. 1, July 2011.

• Kan Kimura. Koji Kagotani, and Jeff Weber. “Democracy and Diversionary Incentives in Japan-South Korean Disputes.” International Relations of Pacific-Asia 13, No. 3, September 2013.

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