What are 21st Century Problems?

First, we’ll provide some context. . .

Human activity is putting such a strain on the natural functions of Earth that the ability of the planet’s ecosystems to sustain future generationscan no longer be taken for granted.

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Board

Other scientific assessments have come to the same conclusion. . .

Certain current trends of population and habitation, wealth and consumption, technology and work, connectedness and diversity, and environmental change are likely to persist well into the coming century. . . . If they do persist, many human needs will not be met, life support systems will be dangerously degraded, and the numbers of hungry and poor will increase. 

U.S. National Academy of Sciences

What are some of these 21st century problems?

• Global climate change• Long-lived organic toxins in our food chains, • Pernicious extreme poverty and hunger, • Lack of access to primary education, • Gaps in gender equality, • Childhood mortality• Deadly diseases such as HIV/AIDS and malaria

21st century problems have three fundamental properties in common

(1) Complexity(2) Panarchy(3) Complex Adaptive Systems – CAS

We’ll deal with complexity first

We’ll deal with complexity first

Complex is not another word for complicated!

Complex is not another word for complicated !

Complicated systems: simple systems with many parts

(1) Interactions among parts are well-defined, (2) Interactions among parts are predictable, (3) The system is well defined and predictable.

Complex is not another word for complicated !

Complex systems have

(1) Changing connections among parts (2) Changing types of interactions(3) Changing intensity of interactions(4) Non-linear interactions(5) Feedback loops

Complex is not another word for complicated !

Complex systems exhibit emergent behavior: that is behavior that can’t be predicted by studying the parts

Complex is not another word for complicated !

Complicated problem: On a flat stretch of pavement with a 60 degree curve, what is the stopping distance of a car traveling 60 miles per hour given a particular coefficient of friction between the tires and the road? Assume the brakes fully engage 0.5 seconds after the signal to stop is given.

Complex is not another word for complicated !

Complex problem: On a flat stretch of pavement with a 60 degree curve, what is the stopping distance of a car traveling 60 miles per hour given a particular coefficient of friction between the tires and the road? Assume the driver has consumed three beers and had a fight with his girl friend 2 hours ago.

21st Century Problems Have Three Properties

(1) Complexity(2)Panarchy(3) Complex Adaptive Systems – CAS

Definition: Panarchy

An evolving hierarchical system with elements that interrelate at several levels.

What???

Definition: Panarchy

An evolving hierarchical system with elements that interrelate at several levels.

Let’s break this down. . . you are familiar with hierarchical systems

Unites StatesNew York State

Tompkins CountyIthaca

And another example of a hierarchical system

Now we have to add in the other elements that take a hierarchy and make it a true

panarchy

An evolving hierarchical system with elements that interrelate at several levels.

Now we have to add in the other elements that take a hierarchy and make it a true

panarchy

An evolving hierarchical system with elements that interrelate at several levels.

This is more easily explained with an example

Let’s build a simple panarchy to understand global CO2 emissions and climate change

You exhibit certain behaviors that effect your personal CO2 emissions

• You do or don’t turn off your computer when you leave your room

• You do or don’t recycle your soda cans

• You do or don’t drive from the circles to campus

• You do or don’t wear certain brands of clothes

• You do or don’t fly in an airplane to get home at breaks

However, you don’t live isolated from other people

You

Your barberYour sibling

Your friend

And your behaviors influence each other

You

Your barberYour sibling

Your friend

Together, these individual behaviors add up to a group behavior

Person

Person Person

Person

Different groups develop different norms of behavior

Person

Person Person

Person

Person

Person Person

Person

Group #1

Group #2

Different groups develop different norms of behavior

Person

Person Person

Person

Person

Person Person

Person

For example, the group of students at Ithaca College behave differently from the group of professors at Ithaca College

Group #2

Group #1

Your group interacts with other groups that have different group behaviors

Person

Person Person

Person

Person

Person Person

Person

Person

Person Person

Person

I.C. Students

I.C. Professors

Local Merchants

And these groups create larger groups that interact

For example, the U.S., India, and Germany

The CO2 emissions of these groups add up to total emissions for humanity

CO2 CO2

CO2

Which effects total global atmospheric CO2

And…Global Atmospheric CO2

Heat Content of Atmosphere

effects

And…Global Atmospheric CO2

Heat Content of Atmosphere

effects

effects

Weather

And…Global Atmospheric CO2

Heat Content of Atmosphere

effects

effects

Weathereffects

Food Availability

And…Global Atmospheric CO2

Heat Content of Atmosphere

effects

effects

Weather

effects

Food Availability

effects

Food Prices

And we’ve come back full circle . . .

food prices effect –

national, regional, state, and individual behavior

Definition: PanarchyA Hierarchy can be. . .

• Simple [few levels with straightforward connections ]• Complicated [lots of levels with straightforward connections]• Complex [levels interrelated by changing connections, feedback loops, etc]

and still not be a Panarchy!

An evolving hierarchical system with elements that interrelate at several levels.

In a Panarchy, not only are the interactions among levels changing [leading to complexity], but the levels themselves are changing through time!

Definition: Panarchy

21st Century Problems Have Three Properties

(1) Complexity(2) Panarchy(3)Complex Adaptive Systems – CAS

Complex Adaptive Systems – CAS

System components are related in such a way that the system as a whole has the ability to adjust or even fundamentally alter the connections and interactions among components, and even the components themselves, based on experience with, pressure from, or even sometimes anticipation of, external forces.

Complex Adaptive Systems – CAS

• lakes• forests• economy of U.S.A.• human body• earth’s atmosphere• street gangs• NATO

So what do we do?

So what do we do?

Train 21st century problem-solvers!

Who are 21st Century Problem Solvers?• Strong understanding of sustainability as a content area

• Strong systems thinking skills

• The ability to comfortably shift among disciplinary, multidisciplinary and interdisciplinary perspectives

• Developing skills and willingness to communicate across, not only the traditional STEM disciplines, but also expand to include essentially all areas of human thought and endeavor

Who are 21st Century Problem Solvers?• Developing the art of questioning

• An acute awareness of values-based learning

• Ability to connect result with real world consequences

• Ability to devise, understand, and choose among several multi-faceted solutions

Your Turn

Your Turn

• Global climate change• Long-lived organic toxins in our food chains • Pernicious extreme poverty and hunger• Lack of access to primary education• Gaps in gender equality• Childhood mortality• Deadly diseases such as HIV/AIDS and malaria

Explain why these are 21st century problems.