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Wetland Drying and WildlifeBrad Griffith & Jennifer Roach
U.S. Geological Survey and University of Alaska Fairbanks
Photo by May-Le Ng
Annual Rates of Change in Lake Size
1985-200923,000 lakes:89% Stable/Fluctuating8% Drying3% Increasing
YUKON FLATS: CENTRALDecreasing Trend
YUKON FLATS: WESTIncreasing Trend
YUKON FLATS: EASTNegligible Trend
Clustering of Increasing and Decreasing lakes
Roach et al. 2013 Global Change Biol. 19: 2276-2284
Among-Lake Heterogeneity
Shrinking Lake
Expanding Lake
8/5/1952 8/30/2008
Why is this Happening?
• Drainage• Lack of recharge• Lakes more likely to dry if:• Within a burned area• On coarse, well-drained soils• Farther from rivers and streams
• Implies:• Permafrost degradation
What are Implications for Wildlife?
Photo by May-Le Ng
Waterfowl Species RichnessBased on current Landscape Metrics
Lake size most influential
in 2010
1986 2050
Roach & Griffith 2015
CENTRAL
WEST
EAST
+2%
-26%
-4%
Species Richness
Projections: 1986-2050
• 11% decline in average number of species per lake
• Heterogeneity among regions and lakes• Regions: -26% to +4%• Lakes: -70% to +214%
• Most vulnerable species are the rare ones• on the edges of their ranges
Implications:• Alaskan National Wildlife Refuges –
• 16 refuges; 77 million acres; 81% of entire National Wildlife Refuge System
• These Refuges support internationally migratory waterfowl• These waterfowl provide ecosystem services at multiple scales
• Climate change in Alaska is expressed throughout North America
50%
25%10%
10%