Western Downs Economic Annual - Federal State · This report is intended to provide a summary of economic and demographic information about the Western Downs Local Government Area

Western Downs Economic Annual

January 2015

www.advancewesterndowns.com.au

Employment Capacity

Page i

Contents

INTRODUCTION 1

REGIONAL SUMMARY 2

Key Indicators 2

Overview 3

Outlook 5

ECONOMIC INDICATORS 6

Population 6

Gross Regional Product 7

Productivity 8

Local Business Numbers 9

Labour Market 11

Employment Capacity 13

Building Approvals 14

Property Market 15

INDUSTRY FOCUS 17

Mining & Resources 17

Direct contribution 17

Indirect contribution 18

Total contribution 18


Employment Capacity

Page 1

Western Downs Regional Economic Annual

© Western Downs Regional Council 2015 1

INTRODUCTION This report is intended to provide a summary of economic and demographic information about the Western Downs Local Government Area (LGA) as well as providing context and analysis for the performance of the regional economy across a wide range of indicators. The report presents comprehensive coverage and analysis of economic and business conditions for the Western Downs LGA and aims to provide timely and accurate economic data to be used by government and business organizations for planning and decision-making purposes as well as promoting the region as a place to invest and do business. The report presents key economic and other statistical indicators in the following categories: • Population • Gross Regional Product • Productivity • Business Numbers & Turnover • Labour Market • Employment Capacity • Building Approvals • Property Market The statistics presented for the Western Downs LGA in this report are benchmarked, where possible, against Queensland as well as other areas where relevant. Disclaimer The information contained herein is believed to be reliable and accurate. However, no guarantee is given to its accuracy or reliability, and no responsibility or liability for any information, opinions or commentary contained herein, or for any consequence of its use, will be accepted by Lawrence Consulting, or by any person involved in the preparation of its publication. Prepared for Western Downs Regional Council by:

PO Box 2567 Toowoomba QLD 4350 Ph / Fax: +61 7 4613 0206 Mob: 0437 180 566 Email: [email protected] Website: www.lawrenceconsulting.com.au © Western Downs Regional Council 2015

Introduction


Employment Capacity

Page 2



REGIONAL SUMMARY Key Indicators

Summary of Recent Economic & Statistical Indicators, Western Downs LGA Reference Period Level Level –

12 mths ago Change Annual %

Change POPULATION Estimated resident population 2013 33,494 32,932 +562 1.7% Projected population 2036 41,878 n.a. +8,384 1.0% Projected households 2036 19,223 n.a. +5,573 1.4% Average age (yrs) 2013 36.6 36.7 -0.1 n.a. Dependency ratio (%) 2013 59.8 59.7 +0.1 0.1% EMPLOYMENT Employed persons (no.) Sep Qtr 2014 17,662 17,624 +38 0.2% Unemployment rate (%)(a) Sep Qtr 2014 3.3 1.8 +1.6 1.6% Labour force (no.) Sep Qtr 2014 18,273 17,944 +329 1.8% Participation rate (%) 2013 67.2 66.4 +0.7 0.7% BUSINESS INVESTMENT Gross regional product ($ million) 2013/14 3,204.8 2,925.8 +279.0 8.5% Real GRP per capita ($) 2013/14 94,738 88,845 +5,893 6.6% Productivity ($value added/hr) 2013/14 68.64 66.95 +1.69 2.5% No. of local businesses June 2013 4,856 4,730 +126 2.7% Total industry turnover ($ million) 2012/13 2,159.9 1,963.3 +196.7 10.0% Average business turnover ($’000) 2012/13 444.8 415.1 +29.7 7.2% BUILDING & CONSTRUCTION No. of dwelling approvals Yr to Dec Qtr 2014 307 479 -172 -35.9% Value of dwelling approvals ($’000) Yr to Dec Qtr 2014 82,854 125,631 -42,777 -34.0% Value of non-dwelling approvals ($’000) Yr to Dec Qtr 2014 74,846 95,054 -20,208 -21.3% PROPERTY MARKET Median house price ($) Sep Qtr 2014 280,000 295,500 -15,500 -5.2% Median vacant urban land price ($) Yr to Sep 2014 145,000 155,000 -10,000 -6.4% TOURISM Hotels, motels & serviced apartments (15+ rooms)

Jun Qtr 2014 21 21 0 0.0%

Bed spaces (no.) Jun Qtr 2014 1,234 1,290 -56 -4.3% Room occupancy (%)(a): Jun Qtr 2014 63.9 87.3 -23.4 -23.4% Takings from accommodation ($’000) Jun Qtr 2014 4,163.1 5,538.0 -1,374.9 -24.8% INCOME & PRICES Per capita income ($) 2010/11 21,674 19,244 +2,430 12.6% Total income ($ million) 2010/11 701.3 609.7 +91.5 15.0% Average wage & salary income ($) 2010/11 44,099 41,339 +2,760 6.7% Average pump price (c/L) October 2014 148.4 157.8 -9.4 -6.0% Note: (a) Changes are percentage point changes.

Regional Summary

Page 3


OverviewWestern Downs Regional Economic Annual


Overview Economic Growth The economy of the Western Downs continued to grow at a substantial pace in 2014, signified most notably in the 8.3% annual increase in gross regional product in real terms in 2013/14 to a level of approximately $3.2 billion. The Western Downs region has sustained this growth over a long period, as evidenced by an annual average rate of growth of 6.3% for the five years to 2013/14, significantly higher than the rate for Queensland over the same period (2.5%). Further underlining the performance of the regional economy in recent years, under the local government growth rankings compiled by Lawrence Consulting – which take into account the average growth over the past five years across four major components of economic performance, namely population, gross regional product, employment and productivity – the Western Downs ranked first of all 78 local governments areas across Queensland.

Local Growth Rankings, Queensland – Top 20 LGAs 1. Western Downs (R) 11. Winton (S) 2. Gladstone (R) 12. Barcoo (S) 3. Maranoa (R) 13. Blackall Tambo (R) 4. Weipa (T) 14. Whitsunday (R) 5. Boulia (S) 15. Murweh (S) 6. Sunshine Coast (R) 16. Southern Downs (R) 7. Mackay (R) 17. Goondiwindi (R) 8. Cook (S) 18. Balonne (S) 9. Moreton Bay (R) 19. Isaac (R) 10. Barcaldine (R) 20. Ipswich (C) The growth in real GRP in the Western Downs continues to be largely driven by the expansion of the mining industry in the region - particularly coal and coal seam gas – with the contribution made by the sector to GRP increasing at a substantial annual rate of 16.4% over the past five years.

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

Arts & recreation services Information media & telecommunications

Administrative & support services Other services

Rental, hiring & real estate services Accommodation & food services

Financial & insurance services Professional, scientific & technical services

Wholesale trade Transport, postal & warehousing

Education & training Public administration & safety Health care & social assistance

Manufacturing Retail trade

Electricity, gas, water & waste services Agriculture, forestry & fishing

Construction Mining

Gross Regional Product Western Downs LGA ($ million), 2013/14

Mining Industry share, 2006 levels

Current industry contribution to GRP


Page 4

OverviewWestern Downs Regional Economic Annual


Separate analysis conducted by Lawrence Consulting to measure the impact of the resource sector boom of the past eight years on regional incomes in the Western Downs – specifically, gross regional product and GRP per capita – under both ‘with’ (i.e. including Mining sector based on current contribution to GRP) and ‘without’ (where the contribution of Mining is capped at 2006 levels of activity and employment) scenarios. In 2013/14, the GRP for the Western Downs would reduce by approximately $600 million resulting in GRP per capita reducing from $94,738 to $76,377, a decrease of 19.4%.

Population The population of the Western Downs region has grown by almost 3,300 persons over the past five years at a faster rate than both the Darling Downs and Queensland. Despite the average age of the population actually reducing over this period, an increase in the share of the popuatlion in the 0-9 years and 65 years and over age brackets has had the effect of increasing the dependency ratio for the region (i.e. the ratio of persons aged outside the labour force range of 15-64 years to those in this age bracket) by 2.1 percentage points to 59.8%, higher than the average for Queensland (50.3%). This ratio is important because as it increases, there is increased strain on the productive part of the population to support the upbringing and pensions of the economically dependent. Employment The labour market in the Western Downs LGA remained strong in 2014, recording a thirteenth consecutive quarter of positive annual growth in employment and continuing the low levels of unemployment (3.3%) compared with Queensland and Australia. There are over 17,600 employed persons residing in the region, although employment did record a small decline for the first time in six quarters in December 2014. Labour force participation remains high (67.2%), above the respective average for Queensland (65.1%). Housing & Construction Projections indicate that there will be more than 5,500 new households added to the Western Downs over the period to 2036. Housing costs are over 50% lower in the region when compared to the Brisbane LGA, with a median house price of $280,000. Despite the level of economic growth in the region in recent years, the number and value of both residential and non-residential building approvals fell significantly in 2014, indicating a slowing down of the property market.

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14

GRP Per Capita Western Downs LGA (with and without current contribution by resource sector)

GRP per capita (real) GRP per capita (Mining sector at 2006 % share)


Page 5

Overview



Income & Prices Despite the Western Downs LGA recording a significantly higher GRP per capita ($94,738) in 2013/14 than the average for Queensland ($62,361), the region has lower per capita and household income levels than both Queensland and Australia. Per capita income in the region is approximately 20% lower than Queensland, signifying that the flow-on of income to households from activity generated in the region is slower (although improving). Given that average retail prices across the region – with the removal of housing costs – are within 1% of those in Brisbane, the lower disposable income levels create higher costs of living pressures.

Note: Reference score for Brisbane = 100 Source: OESR

Outlook The outlook for the economy of the Western Downs for 2015 remains positive, although growth levels may not reach the benchmarks of recent years due to a number of factors. Specifically: • Slight recent weakening in the labour, specifically a drop in the number of employed persons in the September

Quarter 2014. Should this trend continue in subsequent quarters it could lead to lowering of projections for economic growth and productivity in 2014/15;

• The decline in the number and value of both residential and non-residential building approvals in 2014

compared with the previous two years, effectively contracting the development pipeline with ramifications for the construction industry;

• The significant decrease in occupancy rates at tourism accommodation establishments, signifying a drop in the

level of contract workers travelling to the region for work; and • The fall in median house prices in recent quarters, although this has the contrasting effect of improving

housing affordability in the region whilst also increasing rental yields and thus acting as an inducement for property investment.

Despite these concerns, the increasing level of production in the coal and seam gas industry – which is anticipated to produce in excess of 190 PJ in 2014/15 –will ensure the contribution made by the mining sector to gross regional product will remain high and maintain the high level of flow-on impact to supporting industries such as construction, manufacturing, rental and hiring services and wholesale and retail trade.

-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20

Housing

Insurance and financial services

Transportation

All items

Recreation and culture

Alcohol and tobacco

Clothing and footwear

All items less housing

Health

Food and non-alcoholic beverages

Furnishings, household equipment and services

Index of Retail Prices Dalby (Variance from Brisbane), 2013


Page 6

Population



ECONOMIC INDICATORS

Population The estimated resident population of the Western Downs LGA was 33,494 in June 2013, an increase of 562 persons from the level recorded in June 2012 (32,932). This represented growth of 1.7% over the year to June 2013, which was higher than the average for the Darling Downs (1.5%) but slightly lower than Queensland (1.9%). Over the past five years, the Western Downs LGA has experienced an increase in population of 3,259 persons – or average annual growth of 2.1% - which was higher than the respective growth rates for the Daring Downs (1.4%) and Queensland (2.0%). Over the period to 2036, the population of the Western Downs LGA is expected to increase by 8,384 persons – or an average annual rate of 1.0% – to approximately 41,878 persons. The growth rate for the Western Downs LGA is slightly below that forecast for the Darling Downs (1.2%) and Queensland (1.8%).

Note: f = forecast Source: ABS 3218.0, OESR, Lawrence Consulting

Estimated Residential Population

Level 2013

Annual % change

5-Year Ann % chg

Level 2036

Avg ann % growth 2013-36

Western Downs (R) 33,494 1.7 2.1 41,878 1.0 Wambo 17711 2.2 2.2 21956 0.9 Chinchilla 7,470 1.6 3.4 9,979 1.3 Murilla-Wandoan 3,867 1.0 -0.4 4,752 0.9 Tara 4,364 0.7 1.4 5,190 0.8 Darling Downs 240336 1.5 1.4 316101 1.2 Queensland 4,656,803 1.9 2.0 7,095,177 1.8 Source: ABS 3218.0, OESR, Lawrence Consulting

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2016f 2021f 2026f 2031f 2036f

Population Western Downs LGA

Population level Ann % chg (Western Downs) Ann % chg (Qld)


Page 7

Gross Regional ProductWestern Downs Regional Economic Annual


Gross Regional Product The Gross Regional Product (GRP) of the Western Downs LGA was estimated at approximately $3.2 billion in 2013/14, representing real annual growth of 8.5%, which was significantly higher than the average for Queensland (2.3%). Over the past five years, the economy of the Western Downs has grown at an average annual rate of 6.3%, again higher than Queensland (2.5%). With regard to industry, the largest contribution was made by the Mining industry, with approximately $715.5 million, or 22.3% of the total GRP, followed by the Construction (12.2%), Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing (12.2%), Electricity, Gas, Water & Waste Services (6.9%) and Retail Trade (3.5%) sectors.

Source: Lawrence Consulting

Gross Regional Product

Industry Western Downs Queensland Level

2013/14 ($ million)

% of total

Ann % chg

Avg ann % chg

last 5 yrs

Level 2013/14

($ million)

% of total

Ann % chg

Avg ann % chg

last 5 yrs Agriculture, forestry & fishing 390.2 12.2 -6.0 0.4 7,058 2.4 -9.2 0.3 Mining 715.5 22.3 18.6 16.4 26,658 9.0 8.7 4.6 Manufacturing 106.8 3.3 3.5 -0.8 19,026 6.4 -0.1 -0.7 Electricity, gas, water & waste services 220.0 6.9 7.6 9.6 10,327 3.5 -4.0 -0.6 Construction 391.5 12.2 12.9 8.5 30,207 10.2 5.5 5.2 Wholesale trade 75.3 2.4 -3.7 -3.3 13,369 4.5 -2.9 0.5 Retail trade 110.6 3.5 6.1 3.7 13,641 4.6 0.4 2.1 Accommodation & food services 53.3 1.7 12.1 5.3 6,831 2.3 3.3 0.7 Transport, postal & warehousing 93.0 2.9 4.2 3.3 15,003 5.1 -0.1 2.8 Information media & telecommunications 16.3 0.5 10.2 2.3 5,412 1.8 4.3 0.7 Financial & insurance services 66.7 2.1 4.5 0.9 17,146 5.8 2.3 2.2 Rental, hiring & real estate services 43.4 1.4 14.1 12.3 8,299 2.8 1.3 3.4 Professional, scientific & technical services 70.0 2.2 7.0 5.0 15,898 5.4 0.0 1.7 Administrative & support services 33.3 1.0 6.2 7.6 7,037 2.4 -3.9 0.5 Public administration & safety 96.9 3.0 9.1 3.7 16,249 5.5 4.2 2.9 Education & training 93.5 2.9 6.4 1.0 13,007 4.4 2.9 1.5 Health care & social assistance 101.6 3.2 8.4 3.2 19,245 6.5 5.3 4.4 Arts & recreation services 4.6 0.1 4.9 -1.7 1,761 0.6 4.4 1.3 Other services 40.6 1.3 10.2 2.1 5,538 1.9 4.5 0.5

Total Industry Value Added 2,723.1 85.0 8.3 6.3 251,712 85.0 2.2 2.3

Ownership of dwellings 280.3 8.7 8.3 5.8 25,909 8.7 2.2 1.9 Taxes less subsidies on production & imports 207.1 6.5 5.7 4.8 19,140 6.5 -0.2 0.9 Statistical discrepancy -5.7 -0.2 -525 -0.2 Gross Regional Product 3,204.8 100.0 8.5 6.3 296,235 100.0 2.3 2.5 Source: Lawrence Consulting

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

Mining Construction

Agriculture, forestry & fishing Electricity, gas, water & waste services

Retail trade Manufacturing

Health care & social assistance Public administration & safety

Education & training Transport, postal & warehousing

Wholesale trade Professional, scientific & technical services

Financial & insurance services Accommodation & food services

Rental, hiring & real estate services Other services

Administrative & support services Information media & telecommunications

Arts & recreation services

Gross Regional Product Western Downs LGA ($ million), 2013/14

Goods Sector

Services Sector


Page 8

ProductivityWestern Downs Regional Economic Annual


Productivity Productivity is a key component of economic growth and is a measure of the efficiency of production within a region. Dividing the GRP of a region by total hours worked will measure the labour productivity within that region, i.e. the average amount of output produced by an hour worked by a person within that region. Western Downs LGA recorded total industry productivity (or industry value added per hour worked) of approximately $68.64 in 2013/14, which represented an increase of 2.5% over the average productivity for 2012/13 ($66.95). The Western Downs LGA recorded a higher total industry productivity average than Queensland ($62.19) in 2013/14, whilst also experiencing a greater annual increase than the State (0.9%).

Source: Lawrence Consulting

Productivity

Industry Western Downs Queensland Level

2013/14 ($ value

added/hr)

Annual change

($)

Annual % change

Level 2013/14 ($ value

added/hr)

Annual change

($)

Annual % change

Agriculture, forestry & fishing 57.15 3.37 6.3 61.92 3.82 6.6 Mining 153.13 -1.46 -0.9 158.68 -1.24 -0.8 Manufacturing 50.74 -5.47 -9.7 52.36 -5.63 -9.7 Electricity, gas, water & waste services 121.50 -22.56 -15.7 141.18 -23.09 -14.1 Construction 59.58 3.09 5.5 63.13 3.03 5.0 Wholesale trade 106.99 8.72 8.9 105.87 8.08 8.3 Retail trade 29.88 -2.90 -8.8 33.69 -3.00 -8.2 Accommodation & food services 31.33 3.10 11.0 36.45 4.39 13.7 Transport, postal & warehousing 62.61 2.91 4.9 69.65 4.22 6.5 Information media & telecommunications 119.62 7.04 6.3 101.12 4.23 4.4 Financial & insurance services 168.64 21.77 14.8 165.87 21.76 15.1 Rental, hiring & real estate services 86.91 1.01 1.2 92.20 2.22 2.5 Professional, scientific & technical services 47.48 -0.71 -1.5 49.15 -0.64 -1.3 Administrative & support services 39.62 -5.09 -11.4 46.89 -3.79 -7.5 Public administration & safety 62.14 1.37 2.3 61.11 1.21 2.0 Education & training 46.58 1.63 3.6 46.52 1.60 3.6 Health care & social assistance 48.03 1.70 3.7 46.24 1.43 3.2 Arts & recreation services 29.91 -2.31 -7.2 28.30 -1.86 -6.2 Other services 29.63 -1.17 -3.8 31.74 -1.02 -3.1 Total Industry 68.64 1.69 2.5 62.19 0.56 0.9 Source: Lawrence Consulting

$0 $50 $100 $150 $200

Financial & insurance services Mining

Electricity, gas, water & waste services Information media & telecommunications

Wholesale trade Rental, hiring & real estate services

Total Industry Transport, postal & warehousing

Public administration & safety Construction

Agriculture, forestry & fishing Manufacturing

Health care & social assistance Professional, scientific & technical services

Education & training Administrative & support services Accommodation & food services

Arts & recreation services Retail trade

Other services

Industry Productivity Western Downs LGA ($value added/hr worked), 2013/14


Page 9

Local Business NumbersWestern Downs Regional Economic Annual


Local Business Numbers The most recent Australian Business Register indicated there were 4,856 local businesses operating in the Western Downs LGA in June 2013 (i.e. those whose registered place of business is within the region), which represented an increase of 2.7% from the level recorded in 2012 (4,730). In terms of business numbers by industry, the Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing sector was the largest, with 47.2% of total businesses, followed by Construction (10.7%), Rental, Hiring & Real Estate Services (7.2%), Transport, Postal & Warehousing (5.0%) and Retail Trade (4.7%).

Source: ABS 8165.0, Lawrence Consulting

The estimated total industry turnover for all local businesses in the Western Downs LGA was $2.2 billion in 2012/13 – representing an annual increase of 10.0% – with the largest contributions made by the Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing ($934.2 million), Construction ($261.1 million), Retail Trade ($209.0 million) and Rental, Hiring & Real Estate Services ($114.3 million) sectors.

Businesses by Industry Industry Division Level

June 2013 % of total

Total turnover ($ million)

% of total

Avg. turnover ($’000)

Agriculture, forestry & fishing 2,293 47.2 934.2 43.2 407.4 Mining 21 0.4 8.3 0.4 396.4 Manufacturing 137 2.8 91.7 4.2 669.2 Electricity, gas, water & waste services 12 0.2 7.2 0.3 600.0 Construction 522 10.7 261.1 12.1 500.2 Wholesale trade 80 1.6 66.8 3.1 835.3 Retail trade 228 4.7 209.0 9.7 916.6 Accommodation & food services 108 2.2 77.7 3.6 719.4 Transport, postal & warehousing 244 5.0 103.0 4.8 422.0 Information media & telecommunications 10 0.2 0.6 0.0 62.5 Financial & insurance services 179 3.7 45.8 2.1 255.6 Rental, hiring & real estate services 352 7.2 114.3 5.3 324.7 Professional, scientific & technical services 140 2.9 58.3 2.7 416.1 Administrative & support services 58 1.2 16.9 0.8 290.9 Public administration & safety 22 0.5 9.4 0.4 427.3 Education & training 16 0.3 4.5 0.2 278.1 Health care & social assistance 87 1.8 44.6 2.1 512.9 Arts & recreation services 31 0.6 6.0 0.3 193.5 Other services 170 3.5 66.9 3.1 393.5

Non classifiable industry 146 3.0 33.8 1.6 231.3

Total, 2012/13 4,856 100.0 2,159.9 100.0 444.8 Total, 2011/12 4,730 1,963.3 415.1

Annual % change 2.7 10.0 7.2 Source: ABS 8165.0, Lawrence Consulting

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Non classifiable industry Other services

Arts & recreation services Health care & social assistance

Education & training Public administration & safety

Administrative & support services Professional, scientific & technical services

Rental, hiring & real estate services Financial & insurance services

Information media & telecommunications Transport, postal & warehousing

Accommodation & food services Retail trade

Wholesale trade Construction

Electricity, gas, water & waste services Manufacturing

Mining Agriculture, forestry & fishing

Businesses by Industry Western Downs LGA (% of total businesses), June 2013


Page 10

Local Business NumbersWestern Downs Regional Economic Annual


The average turnover of all local businesses in the Western Downs LGA grew annually by 7.2% to approximately $444,800 in 2012/13, with the Retail Trade sector recording the highest average industry turnover ($916,600), followed by Wholesale Trade ($835,300), Accommodation & Food Services ($719,400) and Manufacturing ($669,200).


With regard to turnover, the largest proportion of businesses recorded annual turnover in the $0-$99,999 range (41.2%), followed by the $200,000-$499,999 (19.9%) and $500,000-$2 million (16.4%) turnover ranges. Approximately 6.4% of businesses in the Western Downs LGA recorded annual turnover in excess of $2 million in 2012/13.


0 200 400 600 800 1,000

Retail trade Wholesale trade

Accommodation & food services Manufacturing

Electricity, gas, water & waste services Health care & social assistance

Construction All industries

Public administration & safety Transport, postal & warehousing

Professional, scientific & technical services Agriculture, forestry & fishing

Mining Other services

Rental, hiring & real estate services Administrative & support services

Education & training Financial & insurance services

Non classifiable industry Arts & recreation services

Information media & telecommunications

Average Industry Turnover Western Downs LGA ($'000), 2012/13

$0-$99,999 41.2%

$100,000-$199,999 16.1%

$200,000-$499,999 19.9%

$500,000-$2 million 16.4%

$2+ million 6.4%

Businesses by Turnover Western Downs LGA, 2012/13


Page 11

Labour MarketWestern Downs Regional Economic Annual


Labour Market The estimated number of employed persons in the Western Downs LGA was 17,662 in the September Quarter 2014, representing a small annual increase of 38 persons, or 0.2% from the level recorded in the September Quarter 2013 (17,624). This also represented the thirteenth consecutive quarter of positive annual growth in employment for the region.

Source: DEEWR, Lawrence Consulting

The unemployment rate in the Western Downs LGA was 3.3% in the September Quarter 2014, which was 1.6 percentage points higher than the rate recorded in the September Quarter 2013. The unemployment rate in the Western Downs LGA in the September Quarter 2014 was significantly lower than the averages for Queensland (6.2%) and Australia (6.0%).


-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14

Annual Employment Growth Western Downs LGA

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%


Unemployment Rate

Western Downs Queensland Australia


Page 12

Labour MarketWestern Downs Regional Economic Annual


With regard to the labour force, the Western Downs LGA experienced an increase of 1.8% over the past twelve months to a level of 18,273 persons in the September Quarter 2014, which was slightly lower than the average growth for Queensland (2.2%). The number of unemployed persons in the Western Downs LGA increased substanstially by 90.9% over the year to the September Quarter 2014, which was significantly greater than the average increase of 8.0% for Queensland.


Labour Market

Western Downs Queensland Level

Sep Qtr 2014 Ann

% chg Level

Sep Qtr 2014 Ann

% chg Employed persons (no.) 17,662 0.2 2,339,046 1.8 Unemployed (no.) 611 90.9 154,868 8.0 Unemployment rate(a) (%) 3.3 1.6 6.2 0.3 Labour force (no.) 18,273 1.8 2,493,914 2.2 Note: (a) Unemployment rate changes are percentage point changes. Source: DEEWR, Lawrence Consulting

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000


Labour Force Western Downs LGA

Employed Unemployed


Employment Capacity

Page 13



Employment Capacity The participation rate (i.e. the proportion of the resident population aged 15 and over in the labour force) in the Western Downs LGA was 67.2% in 2013, representing an increase of 0.7 percentage points from the average for 2012 (66.4%), whilst also being higher than the average for Queensland (65.1%). The dependency ratio – i.e. the ratio of the economically-dependent proportion of the population to the productive part – in the Western Downs LGA was 59.8% in 2013, which was higher than the average for Queensland (50.3%).

Source: ABS 3235.0, DEEWR & Lawrence Consulting

Employment Capacity

Level (%) 2013

Level (%) 2011

Annual % change (a)

Level 2008

% change 2008-13(a)

Participation rate Western Downs 67.2 66.4 0.7 64.6 2.6 Queensland 65.1 65.8 -0.8 65.2 -0.1 Dependency ratio Western Downs 59.8 59.7 0.1 57.7 2.1 Queensland 50.3 49.7 0.6 48.1 2.2 Note: (a) Changes are percentage point changes. Source: ABS 3235.0, DEEWR & Lawrence Consulting

Source: ABS 3235.0, DEEWR & Lawrence Consulting

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Participation Rate

Western Downs Queensland

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Dependency Ratio

Western Downs Queensland


Page 14

Building ApprovalsWestern Downs Regional Economic Annual


Building Approvals The total number of residential building (or dwelling) approvals in the Western Downs LGA was 307 in the year to the December Quarter 2014, which represented a decrease of 47.0% from the total recorded in the year to the December Quarter 2013 (479). The total value of residential building approvals in the Western Downs LGA in the year to the December Quarter 2014 was approximately $82.9 million, a decrease of 46.2% from the level recorded in the year to the December Quarter 2013 ($125.6 million). The total value of non-residential building approvals in the Western Downs LGA was approximately $74.8 million in the year to the December Quarter 2014, representing an annual decrease of 21.3% from the level recorded in the year to the December Quarter 2013 ($95.1 million).

Source: ABS 8731.3

Building Approvals Western Downs Queensland Level

Yr to Dec Qtr 2014

Annual % change

Level Yr to Dec Qtr

2014

Annual % change

Dwelling Approvals (no.) New houses 195 -47.0 21,326 16.6 Other dwellings 112 0.9 16,138 0.7 Total 307 -35.9 37,464 9.2 Dwelling Approvals, Value ($’000) New houses 52,487 -46.2 5,739,897 16.0 Other dwellings 24,152 12.2 3,774,893 8.2 Alterations & additions 6,215 -6.2 1,209,883 8.1 Total 82,854 -34.0 10,732,072 12.1 Non-Residential Building Approvals, Value ($’000) Private Sector 70,565 -21.4 4,803,791 -31.9 Public Sector 4,281 -18.1 1,001,243 -0.5 Total 74,846 -21.3 5,805,036 -28.0 Total Building Approvals, Value ($’000) 157,698 -28.5 16,537,108 -6.2 Source: ABS 8731.3

0

100

200

300

400

500

Yr to Dec-05 Yr to Dec-06 Yr to Dec-07 Yr to Dec-08 Yr to Dec-09 Yr to Dec-10 Yr to Dec-11 Yr to Dec-12 Yr to Dec-13 Yr to Dec-14

Number of Dwelling Approvals Western Downs LGA

New Houses Other Dwelling Units


Page 15

Property MarketWestern Downs Regional Economic Annual


Property Market The median house price in the Western Downs LGA was $280,000 in the September Quarter 2014, representing an annual decrease of 5.2% over the level recorded in the September Quarter 2010 ($296,000). The median price for houses in the Western Downs LGA over the year to September 2011 was $279,000, which represented an increase of 15.3% over the past five years.

Source: REIQ

Property Market

Median House Prices Level ($) Sep Qtr 2014

Annual % change

Level ($) Yr to Sep 2014

Annual % change

5 year % change

Western Downs 280,000 -5.2 279,000 -7.0 15.3 Maranoa 339,500 9.9 335,000 7.2 24.1 Toowoomba 277,500 -0.9 290,000 -2.5 26.1 Goondiwindi 248,000 34.1 245,000 21.7 2.1 Southern Downs 242,500 1.0 250,000 8.7 8.7 South Burnett 200,000 8.1 200,000 0.0 -11.1 Scenic Rim 336,250 0.4 350,000 2.9 2.9 Brisbane 580,000 9.4 570,500 8.7 18.9 Source: REIQ

Source: REIQ

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14

Median House Price Western Downs LGA ($'000)

Western Downs Brisbane

48.3

58.5

47.8 42.8 41.8

34.5

58.0

100.0

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Western Downs Toowoomba Maranoa Goondiwindi Southern Downs South Burnett Scenic Rim Brisbane

Median House Price Index September Quarter 2014


Page 16

Property Market



The median house price index for the Western Downs LGA in the September Quarter 2014 was 48.3 when compared to Brisbane (index of 100), indicating that house prices in the region are approximately 51.7% below those in the Brisbane LGA. The median house price index for the Western Downs LGA decreased significantly by 7.5 percentage points over the year to the September Quarter 2014. The median price for vacant urban land in the Western Downs LGA was $145,000 over the year to September 2014, representing an annual decrease of 6.4% over the level recorded in the year to September 2013, but a significant increase of 40.8% over the past five years.


Page 17

Industry FocusWestern Downs Regional Economic Annual


INDUSTRY FOCUS

Mining & Resources Direct contribution In 2013/14, the Queensland Resources Council (QRC) surveyed its full member companies to identify the economic contribution of the minerals and energy sector to the regional economies across Queensland. The analysis, conducted by Lawrence Consuting, showed that the minerals and energy sector in the Western Downs region contributed: • $84.6 million in wages and salaries to 840 direct fulltime employees, with an average salary of $100,678; and • $1,065.4 million in purchases of goods and services from local businesses (including contractors), community

contributions and local government payments.

Direct Impact of Minerals and Energy Sector by Commodity Type, 2013/14 – Western Downs Commodity type Direct

employees (FTEs)

Associated salaries

($M)

Business purchases and

community contributions

($M)

Total direct spending

($M)

% of total spend

Coal 332 29.4 30.5 59.9 5.2% CSG/LNG 495 54.3 1,033.7 1,087.9 94.6% Metaliferrous 3 0.4 0.8 1.1 0.1% Other 11 0.6 0.4 1.1 0.1% Total 840 84.6 1,065.4 1,150.0 100.0%

The following table shows the distribution of total direct spending (i.e. salaries, business purchases and community contributions) from resources companies across Queensland to the top 20 LGAs by expenditure. Western Downs LGA recorded the sixth largest share of direct expenditure from the resource sector in 2013/14, behind Brisbane ($15.8 billion), Gladstone ($4.5 billion), Mackay ($3.0 billion), Toowoomba ($1.3 billion) and Mount Isa ($1.2 billion). Of the top 20 LGAs for resource sector expenditure, the largest annual percentage increases in direct spending was recorded in the Western Downs (up 36.3%), largely reflective of the growth in coal seam gas derived from the Surat Basin and in contrast to annual declines in other commodity types.

Direct Impact of Minerals and Energy Sector, Top 20 LGAs by Expenditure, 2013/14 Local government area

Residing employees

(FTEs)

Associated salaries

($M)

Business purchases,

community and local govt payments

($M)


($M)

Annual % change in direct spending

Brisbane 6,797 993.2 14,791.4 15,784.6 5.0% Gladstone 3,623 408.5 4,104.2 4,512.7 -11.1% Mackay 4,153 543.0 2,480.7 3,023.8 -19.5% Toowoomba 594 72.3 1,210.3 1,282.6 13.9% Mount Isa 3,218 422.6 798.8 1,221.3 -22.6% Western Downs 840 84.6 1,065.4 1,150.0 36.3% Central Highlands 3,254 458.1 596.0 1,054.2 -27.7% Townsville 2,952 322.7 702.4 1,025.2 -33.6% Isaac 3,926 586.3 380.5 966.8 -37.9% Rockhampton 1,410 177.6 466.7 644.3 -37.3% Moreton Bay 1,237 162.6 425.7 588.3 6.1%


Page 18

Industry Focus



Direct Impact of Minerals and Energy Sector, Top 20 LGAs by Expenditure, 2013/14 Local government area

Residing employees

(FTEs)

Associated salaries

($M)

Business purchases,

community and local govt payments

($M)


($M)

Annual % change in direct spending

Sunshine Coast 1,041 125.5 251.2 376.6 -20.5% Banana 1,070 144.2 222.3 366.4 0.4% Gold Coast 1,064 117.9 221.9 339.8 -21.1% Logan 500 53.1 218.3 271.3 -25.4% Livingstone 994 135.4 120.6 256.0 n.a. Maranoa 211 24.5 216.4 240.9 -23.6% Whitsunday 1,134 145.7 77.2 223.0 -27.3% Ipswich 533 57.3 147.0 204.3 -33.8% Cairns 373 42.1 152.8 195.0 -34.3% Indirect contribution This $1,150.0 million in direct spending in the Western Downs supported: • $1,162.2 million in additional supply chain purchases and household consumption; and • $507.4 million in wages and salaries associated with a further 10,714 jobs supported in this region. Total contribution The total economic contribution (direct, indirect and consumption-induced) from the minerals and energy sector to the Western Downs LGA in 2013/14 was estimated at: • $2,312.2 million in supplying business purchases; • $592.0 million in total wages and salaries paid to workers; • $2,229.2 million in value added, or 69.6% of total GRP for the region ($3.2 billion in 2013/14); and • 11,554 full-time equivalent jobs, or 64.5% of the entire workforce in this region.

Documents

Western Downs Economic Annual - Federal State · This report is intended to provide a summary of economic and demographic information about the Western Downs Local Government Area