WEST OF ENGLAND LOCAL INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY€¦ · WofE 16-17 year olds are more likely than average to not be in education, employment or training (driven by high levels in Bristol)

WEST OF ENGLAND LOCAL INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY

EVIDENCE REPORTPEOPLE & SKILLSFEBRUARY 2019

1. Summary of Findings

2. Demographics

3. Labour Market

4. Skills Demand

5. Skills Supply

6. Future Skills

Relevant content elsewhere in the West of England evidence base:

▪ Economic Flows report migration section

Report library

▪ Centre for Progressive Policy Demand and Supply for Skills

▪ Digital Study Competitiveness and Skills

WEST OF ENGLAND LOCAL INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY: PEOPLE & SKILLS EVIDENCE2

Contents

3

Summary of FindingsGrowing population

ONS population projections suggest that the population of the region is likely to grow

faster than average up to 2038; unlike other places this includes growth in the working-age

cohorts (10% growth). The over-65 population is forecast to grow by 37%. Inflows are

prominent among younger people from the north, London and south-east (including large

numbers of graduates), while outflows tend to be older generations moving south and

west. International migration is motivated roughly evenly by employment and studying; net

international immigration was relatively low compared with other areas.

Detailed Analysis can be found in Economic Connectivity Report p.76

WEST OF ENGLAND LOCAL INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY: PEOPLE & SKILLS EVIDENCE

4

Summary of FindingsUnemployment and NEET

Overall across the region, employment is higher and unemployment lower than the national

average. However, there are significant local variations and areas of deprivation, and we

will seek to understand the causes of this, including educational attainment, in more

detail. In recent years unemployment has fallen in Bristol and risen in South

Gloucestershire. WofE 16-17 year olds are more likely than average to not be in education,

employment or training (driven by high levels in Bristol).


5

Summary of FindingsSkills and training

Many residents in the region have high levels of skills, but gaps exist between education and

training, and what businesses need, and also in attainment and job market matching in certain

places. We need a better understanding of how education systems serve all residents in

developing both basic and higher-level skills. Almost half of working-age residents have a degree

(48%). A smaller than average number have low or no qualifications. The region is effective at

retaining ‘home students’ as well as incoming graduates. Nonetheless, only a third (35%) of newly

working graduates in Bristol grew up in the city.

A higher proportion of people in the region are employed in professional and technical jobs than

average. However, skills shortages increased significantly from 2015-17 and are particularly acute

for high- and middle-skilled jobs. The general skills most in demand include customer service

(rising), sales (falling), project management, MS Office, and budget management. We will look to

refine our view of educational provision and attainment, supply and demand of more sector-

specific skills, and of workplace training.


6

Skills as a driver of growth ▪ There is a clear correlation between high skills and productivity (GVA per hour worked); as

demonstrated overleaf the West of England preforms well on this measure compared to other

LEP areas.

▪ Not only do skills have an important role in the performance of the local economy, they can play

a part in addressing local issues of deprivation.

▪ However, high level skills aren’t the solution for everyone – a varied and responsive skills

ecosystem is required to meet the needs of businesses and ensure clear career pathways for

employees.


7

Skills as a driver of growth

Black Country

Buckinghamshire Thames Valley

Coast to Capital

Coventry and Warwickshire

Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire

Enterprise M3

Gloucestershire

Greater Birmingham and

Solihull

Greater Cambridge and Greater Peterborough

Greater Manchester

Hertfordshire

Leeds City Region

Liverpool City Region

London

North East

Oxfordshire

Sheffield City Region

Swindon and Wiltshire

Thames Valley Berkshire

West of England

York, North Yorkshire and East Riding

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 50.0 55.0

GVA p

er

hour

work

ed

% of working age population qualified level 4+

High Level Skills and Productivity by LEP area (2016)


Source: ONS

DEMOGRAPHICS

8 WEST OF ENGLAND LOCAL INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY: PEOPLE & SKILLS EVIDENCE

9

Demographics: Population Change

▪ The population of the West of England currently stands at

1,139,800. 40% of the resident population reside within

Bristol; 24% in South Gloucestershire – the majority of which

are in the wider principle urban area of Bristol.

▪ Between 1997 and 2017 the West of England population has

grown on average 0.8% per annum. This is higher than that

for England (0.7%) and comparator Core City LEP areas.

▪ Population growth West of England has accelerated in the

last 10yrs – increasing by 9.5% over the period; this is a

similar level of growth experienced by Cambridge and

Peterborough LEP at 9.8%.

17%

40%19%

24%

Population distribution by authority

Bath and North East Somerset Bristol, City of

North Somerset South Gloucestershire

Source: Population Estimates (2017), ONS


10

Demographics: Population Projections▪The West of England Local Industrial Strategy has looked at the ONS 2016 Population Projections, as the

most recently available projections, to inform the people section of the evidence base. These

projections have been used to draw out trends in population change and highlight any areas which may

require a local policy response. Note these are different to the population projections used to inform the

Strategic Housing Market Assessment and Joint Spatial Plan which were based on 10-year migration trends

produced by Opinion Research Services.

▪Current population projections suggest that the West of England will grow by 11% between 2017 and

2030. During this time frame the cohort of those ages 65+ is expected to increase from 17% of the total

population to 19%.

▪ Three of the four authorities – B&NES, North Somerset and South Gloucestershire are expected to

experience significant growth in those aged over 65+. Whilst this creates economic opportunities through

the grey pound; unless these are ‘healthy’ aging years this could see pressure being put on social care.

This could be exacerbated if growth in the working age population doesn’t match the scale of growth of

the aging population. This is likely to be a particular issue in B&NES and North Somerset.

▪ Bristol is the only authority area where growth in the working age population outstrips the aging

population; this is a characteristic of cities

N.B. Work on population growth included in the Economic Connectivity report (p.99) looks at the

anticipated change between 2018- 2038


11

Demographics: Population Projections

-10.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0

Aged 0 - 4

Aged 5-9

Aged 10-14

Aged 15-19

Aged 20-24

Aged 25-29

Aged 30-34

Aged 35-39

Aged 40-44

Aged 45-49

Aged 50-54

Aged 55-59

Aged 60-64

Aged 65-69

Aged 70-74

Aged 75-79

Aged 80-84

Aged 85+

West of England Population Pyramid - 2030

Males Females

Source: Population Estimates and Projections, ONS

-10.00 -5.00 0.00 5.00 10.00

Aged 0 - 4

Aged 5-9

Aged 10-14

Aged 15-19

Aged 20-24

Aged 25-29

Aged 30-34

Aged 35-39

Aged 40-44

Aged 45-49

Aged 50-54

Aged 55-59

Aged 60-64

Aged 65-69

Aged 70-74

Aged 75-79

Aged 80-84

Aged 85+

West of England Population Pyramid - 2017

Female Male


12


0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

Popula

tion C

hange

Years from 2016

Bath and North East Somerset

Aged 16 to 64 Aged 0 to 15 Aged 65+

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

Popula

tion C

hange

Years from 2016

City of Bristol



Source: Population Projections, ONS

13


0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

Popula

tion C

hange

Years from 2016

North Somerset


0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

Popula

tion C

hange

Years from 2016

South Gloucestershire



LABOUR MARKET


Labour Market: Employment Rate

50.0

55.0

60.0

65.0

70.0

75.0

80.0

85.0

Employment Rate of Working Age Population

West of England Employment rate - aged 16-64 West of England Employment rate males - aged 16-64

West of England Employment rate females - aged 16-64 England Employment rate - aged 16-64

England Employment rate males - aged 16-64 England Employment rate females - aged 16-64

• The employment rate for the

West of England remains higher

than that of England for both

males and females.

Employment rate

- aged 16-64

(July 2017 – June

2018)

B&NES 77.5

Bristol 78.9

North Somerset 79.1

South Gloucestershire 79.8

West of England 78.9

England 75.2

Source: APS, ONS

• The employment rate for all four

of the constituent West of

England authorities remain

higher than that of England.

Source: Annual Population Survey, ONS


16

Labour Market: Employment Rate

Source: Annual Population Survey (Jan 2017-Dec 2017), ONS


60.0

65.0

70.0

75.0

80.0

85.0

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Labour Market: Unemployment Rate

• The unemployment rate for the

West of England remains lower

than that of England for both

males and females.

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

Unemployment Rate of 16+

West of England Unemployment rate - aged 16+ West of England Unemployment rate males - aged 16+

West of England Unemployment rate females - aged 16+ England Unemployment rate - aged 16+

England Unemployment rate males - aged 16+ England Unemployment rate females - aged 16+

Unemployment

rate - aged 16+

(Jul 2017-Jun

2018)

B&NES 3.3

Bristol 2.8

North Somerset 2.9

South Gloucestershire 4.2

West of England 3.2

England 4.2

Source: APS, ONS

• The unemployment rate for the

constituent West of England

authorities remain lower than

that of England; with the

exception of South

Gloucestershire.Source: Annual Population Survey, ONS



Source: Annual Population Survey (Jan 2017-Dec 2017), ONS


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Bla

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Buckin

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0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

Bath

and N

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East

Som

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Bristo

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of

North

Som

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South

Glo

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West o

f Engla

nd

Engla

nd

South

West

Unemployment Rate - 16+

Jul 2004-Jun 2005 Jul 2017-Jun 2018


• Overall changes in

unemployment in the West

of England have been

consistent with national

changes, however this

varies by UA.

• The unemployment rate in

Bristol has significantly

decreased since the year to

June 2005; whereas it has

increased in South

Gloucestershire. When you

take into account

confidence limits the

unemployment rate for

B&NES and North Somerset

has remained relatively

consistent.


20

Labour Market: Unemployed Graduates

16-64

Employment

Rate

High-Skill

Employment Rate

Unemployment

RateInactivity Rate

Median Salary

(nearest £500)

Non-

Graduates UK71.1% 22.2% 5.3% 24.9% £23,000

Graduates

UK 87.5% 65.5% 2.8% 10.0% £33,000

East Midlands 87.6% 66.8% 2.6% 10.1% £29,000

East of England 85.5% 65.5% 3.3% 11.6% £35,000

London 87.8% 66.9% 4.2% 8.3% £38,500

North East 84.9% 58.6% - 12.3% £29,000

North West 88.0% 64.0% 2.1% 10.1% £29,500

South East 87.8% 67.8% 2.1% 10.3% £37,000

South West 87.7% 64.7% 2.2% 10.4% £30,000

West Midlands 87.7% 62.0% 2.9% 9.7% £32,000

Yorkshire and The Humber 87.6% 65.2% 1.9% 10.6% £28,500

• Graduates are more likely to be employed and in high-skilled employment than non-graduates,

and consequently higher earning potential than that of non-graduates.

• Non –graduates are more likely to be unemployed and economically inactive (not looking for

work).

➢ Area for further work: Pathways and earning potential of alternative educational routes, e.g.

Apprenticeships.



Labour Market: Employment by

OccupationEmployment by occupation, July 2017 – June 2018

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Managers,Directors &

Senior Officials

ProfessionalOccupations

AssociateProfessional &

Technical

Administrative &Secretarial

Skilled TradesOccupations

Caring, Leisure &Other ServiceOccupations

Sales &Customer

Service Occs

Process Plant &Machine

Operatives

ElementaryOccupations

West of England Great Britain



Labour Market: Employment Change

by Occupation

• The West of England has mirrored

national trends in terms of

occupational growth and decline;

demonstrating strong growth in

higher skilled occupations and a

decline in lower skilled

occupations.

• The West of England has seen a

more significant decline in the

sales and customer service

occupations; and process, plant

and machine operatives than at

the nationally.

-4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0

managers, directors and senior officials

professional

associate pro. & technical

administrative and secretarial

skilled trades

caring, leisure and other service

sales and customer service

process, plant and machine operatives

elementary occupations

Change 2004-17 as percent of total employment

Change in Employment by Occupation (2004-2017)

England

West of England



Labour Market: Employment Change

by Industry▪As with employment by occupation the West of

England has mirrors the national picture in

terms of employment growth and decline by

industry.

▪ However, the West of England has exhibited a

more significant increase than the national

picture in public admin, education and health;

banking finance and insurance; and energy and

water.

▪Of those industries that have seen a decrease

in terms of employment, the decrease in

transport and communication; and distribution,

hotels and restaurants seems more pronounced

in the West of England.

-6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0

A:agriculture and fishing

B,D,E:energy and water

C:manufacturing

F:construction

G,I:distribution, hotels andrestaurants

H,J:transport and communications

K-N:banking, finance and insurance

O-Q:public admin. education andhealth

R-U:other services

Percentage Point Change in Employment by Industry (2004-2017)

England P.P Change 2004-2017 West of England P.P Change 2004-2017



Labour Market: Full time employment

▪ In the year to December

2017 full-time employment

stood at 72.1%; this is lower

than that of the UK (74.8%)

but higher than the South

West (71.1%).

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

West of England - % working FT 16-64 S.West - % working FT 16-64

UK - % working FT 16-64



Labour Market: Part time employment

▪ Part Time employment in the West of

England seemingly fluctuates, however

this is probably a result of the smaller

sample size . Part time employment

has increased marginally across the

West of England, in line with the South

West and National picture.

▪ Part time employment in the West of

England has increased the most

amongst the over 50’s.


20

25

30

35

40

45

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

West of England - % working PT 16-64 S.West - % working PT 16-64UK - % working PT 16-64 West of England - % working PT 50+S.West UK


Labour Market: Part time employment

▪ Part time employment has seen a

stepped increase in tertiary education.

Whereas it peaked in general public

administration activities in 2014.

▪ The demand for part time employees

fluctuates a lot across all industries.

However, in recent years there has been a

decline in part time roles in

accommodation and human health

activities. This could be being driven by a

number of factors, cost savings through

consolidation of roles; adoption of new

technologies.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

% o

f PT P

ost

ings

Top 6 industries providing part time positions

Tertiary education (85.42)

Retail sale in non-specialised stores with food, beverages or tobacco predominating(47.11)

Other human health activities (86.90)

General public administration activities (84.11)

Other business support service activities n.e.c. (82.99)

Hotels and similar accommodation (55.10)

Source: Labour Insight, Burning Glass


Labour Market: Advertised Occupations

11.1% 10.2% 10.9% 10.1%

36.4% 35.9% 34.6% 34.1%

19.2%17.5% 18.0%

17.6%

8.7%7.8% 8.4%

8.9%

4.7%5.4% 6.0% 6.1%

3.6%5.5% 4.8% 5.9%

11.0%10.0% 9.9% 8.2%

2.1%3.3% 3.0% 3.9%

3.1% 4.3% 4.3% 5.2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2012 2014 2016 2018

Advertised Occupations in the West of England

Managers, directors, and senior officials Professional

Associate professional and technical Administrative and secretarial

Skilled trades Caring, leisure and other service

Sales and customer service Process, plant and machine operatives

Elementary occupations

• Between 2012 and 2018 there has been a

slight shift in the types of occupations

being advertised. Whilst high skilled

occupations ( Managers, Directors and

Senior Officials; Professional Occupations;

and Associate Professionals and technical

occupations) still dominate, accounting for

over 60% of jobs advertised in both 2012

and 2016, there has been a slight decrease

(relative to the number of jobs advertised

that year) from 67% to 62%.

• Whilst there has been a decline in sales and

customer service occupations, possibly

reflective of the national down turn of

retail; caring, leisure and other service

occupations has increased. As has skilled

trade occupations and elementary occupations.



Labour Market: Levels of Education

Qualifications of working age population, 2017

8%

4%

7%

4%

11%

10%

18%

15%

19%

19%

39%

48%

Great Britain

West of England

No Qualifications Other Qualifications NVQ 1 NVQ 2 NVQ 3 NVQ 4+

Source: ONS Annual Population Survey


Labour Market: Levels of Education

▪ The education attainment level of the working age

population varies across the West of England; with

54.2% having an NVQ4+ in Bristol compared to 40.8% in

South Gloucestershire.

▪ Conversely Bristol also exhibits the highest proportion

of working age population with no qualifications at

5.1%. Whilst this can be expected in a city, this is and

indication of inequality; which when looked at in light

of the skills requirements of jobs advertised could be

considered to be polarising further.

Source: Annual Population Survey Jan-Dec 2017, ONS


47.8

54.2

41.9

40.8

47.8

0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0

B&NES

Bristol

N. Som

S. Glos

WofE

Working age - % with NVQ4+

3.7

5.1

3.0

3.3

4.1

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0

B&NES

Bristol

N. Som

S. Glos

WofE

Working age - % with no qualifications (NVQ)

Employment Rate by Ethnicity

Source: Oct 2017-Sep 2018 Annual Population Survey, ONS

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

aged 16-64 employmentrate - white

aged 16-64 employmentrate - ethnic minority

West of England England

• The employment rate amongst the

white working age population in the

West of England is higher than that of

England as a whole.

• Whilst the employment rate amongst

ethnic minority groups is lower than

that of the white working age

population this is equal to that of

England. However, there are variations

between ethnic groups – with 77.8% of

Indian people, 64.9% of black and black

British; and 58.9 % of people of all

other ethnic groups of working age in

employment.


Occupational Employment by Ethnicity

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

managers

, dir

ecto

rs &

senio

roff

icia

ls

pro

fess

ional occupati

ons

ass

ocia

te p

rof.

& t

echnic

al

occupati

ons

adm

inis

trati

ve &

secre

tari

al

occupati

ons

skille

d t

rades

occupati

ons

cari

ng,

leis

ure

and o

ther

occupati

ons

sale

s &

consu

mer

serv

ice

occupati

ons

pro

cess

, pla

nt

& m

achin

eopera

tives

ele

menta

ry o

ccupati

ons

% of 16+ white in employment

% of 16+ ethnic minority in employment

• Employment patterns by occupation

are similar between ethnicities,

however there are a number of

occupations where there are more

significant differences:

• in associated, professional and

technical occupations; care, leisure

and other occupations; and

elementary occupations.



Industry Employment by Ethnicity


• Employment patterns by industry

differ significantly between

ethnicities, with particular differences

in:

• construction;

• transport and communications;

• distribution, hotels and restaurants;

% of 16+ white people in employment % 16+ ethnic minority people in employment


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Manufa

ctu

ring

Const

ructi

on

Dis

trib

uti

on H

ote

ls a

nd

Rest

auura

nts

Tra

nsp

ort

&com

munic

ati

ons

Bankin

g,

Fin

ance a

nd

Insu

rance

Public A

dm

in,

Educati

on a

nd H

ealt

h

Oth

er

Serv

ices

SKILLS DEMAND


Skills Demand: Occupations

▪ Programmers and software development

professionals have consistently been the most

commonly advertised occupation in the West of

England; highlighting the rise and importance of

digital skills across most industries. Whilst this

occupation continues to be the most advertised

there has been a sharp decline in 2018. The

reason for this decline needs to be explored

further.

▪ The demand for Nurses has remined steady in

terms of the proportion of jobs advertised, but

saw a sharp increase between 2017 and 2018.

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

%

Top occupations over time

Programmers and software development professionals

Nurses

Sales related occupations n.e.c.

Other administrative occupations n.e.c.

Human resources and industrial relations officers

Managers and proprietors in other services n.e.c.



Skills Demand: Industries Recruiting

▪ Human health and social work has been the top

industry recruiting since 2013; and is by far the

biggest employer in the West of England.

Alongside an aging population the demand for

skills in health and care is set to increase.

▪ ‘Wholesale and retail trade; …’ and

‘Accommodation and food service activities’

steady; given that overall employment change in

this industry has been in decline over recent years

(slide 21); this indicates significant churn/

replacement demand in this sector.

0

5

10

15

20

25

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

% o

f to

tal jo

b p

ost

ings

Percentage of Job Postings by Industry

Human health & social workProfessional, scientific & technicalEducationManufacturingWholesale & retail trade & repair of motor vehiclesAccommodation & food service



Skills Demand: Employers

recruiting over the last 12 months

▪ Reinforcing the scale of demand coming from

the Human Health and Social Work Sector

overleaf the National Health Service (NHS) is

the largest single employer in the West of

England - posting more job listings than the

rest of the top 10 employers put together.

➢ National Health Service = 7,387

➢ Total of the other 9 top employers = 6,165

▪ The Universities in the region are also large

employers across the region.


0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

NH

S

Univ

ers

ity o

f Bri

stol

Univ

ers

ity o

f Bath

UW

E

Adlib H

old

ings

LTD

Bri

stol Com

munit

yH

ealt

h C

.I.C

.

Tesc

o P

LC

West

on C

ollege

Air

bus

LTD

Com

pute

rshare

Ltd

Job P

ost

ings

Top 10 Recruiters in the West of England (2018)


Skills Demand: Skills Shortages

Skills shortage vacancy density by occupation, WofE 2015-17

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Sales &customerservices

Elementarystaff

Admin/clerical Machineoperatives

Professionals Caring, leisure& otherservices

Associateprofessionals

Managers Skilled trades

2015 2017

Source: Employer Skills Survey 2017; Centre for Progressive Policy analysis


Skills Demand: Vacancies

7%

9%

8%

7%

5%

10%

9%

5%

5%

8%

10%

6%

5%

7%

5%

7%

6%

6%

5%

8%

6%

6%

6%

7%

7%

5%

10%

6%

4%

5%

6%

9%

7%

5%

4%

6%

5%

6%

4%

8%

4%

6%

6%

6%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

Total

Greater Birmingham and Solihull

Greater Cambridge Greater Peterborough

Greater Manchester


London

Oxfordshire




West of England

Incidence of vacancies by occupation (employer base)

HIGH-SKILL MIDDLE-SKILL SERVICE-INTENSIVE LABOUR-INTENSIVE

Source: Employer Skills Survey 2017


Skills Demand: Skill Shortages

impact on business performance

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%Lose

busi

ness

or

ord

ers

to c

om

peti

tors

Dela

y d

evelo

pin

g n

ew

pro

ducts

or

serv

ices

Have d

iffi

cult

ies

meeti

ng q

uality

standard

s

Experi

ence incre

ase

dopera

ting c

ost

s

Have d

iffi

cult

ies

intr

oducin

g n

ew

work

ing p

racti

ces

Incre

ase

work

load f

or

oth

er

staff

Outs

ourc

e w

ork

Wit

hdra

w f

rom

off

eri

ng c

ert

ain

pro

ducts

or

serv

ices

alt

ogeth

er

Have d

iffi

cult

ies

meeti

ng c

ust

om

er

serv

ices

obje

cti

ves

Have d

iffi

cult

ies

intr

oducin

gte

chnolo

gic

al change

None

Don't k

now

Implications of hard-to-fill vacancies (prompted) (employer base)

Total Greater Cambridge Greater Peterborough

London Oxfordshire

Swindon and Wiltshire Thames Valley Berkshire

West of England



Skills Demand : Gaps negatively

impact on business performance

17%

20%

16%

14%

18%

19%

24%

14%

23%

12%

19%

48%

44%

52%

53%

49%

48%

37%

44%

44%

60%

41%

35%

36%

32%

33%

34%

33%

39%

42%

33%

28%

40%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Total

Greater Birmingham and Solihull

Greater Cambridge Greater Peterborough

Greater Manchester


London

Oxfordshire




West of England

Do skills gaps impact on how establishment performs?

Yes - major impact Yes - minor impact No



Skills Demand: Skills shortages &

vacancies▪ There are challenges with matching skills supply to demand. These have increased

significantly recently – particularly in skilled trades. Many occupations are now more

short of skills than national average, reversal of position from 2015. This is driven by:

- Shortage of people in technical education

- Alignment of courses with employer demand

▪ In most cases skill shortages and vacancies have a negative impact on business

performance; with increased workload for existing staff being the most frequently cited

response to skill shortages followed by businesses facing challenges in meeting customer

services objective. Both of which will have a drag on productivity.


Skills Demand: Salary Changes

▪ Occupations reliant on digital

skills such as web design and

development professional;

marketing and sales; programmers

and software development

professionals have seen a

noticeable increase in salary.

▪Nurses have also shown a recent

increase in salary, potentially as a

result of shortages in this area


0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018M

ean A

dvert

ised S

ala

ry

Median Salary of Top 10 Occupations

Programmers and software development professionalsNursesSales related occupationsOther administrative occupationsHuman resources and industrial relations officersManagers and proprietors in other servicesMarketing and sales directorsIT business analysts, architects and systems designersWeb design and development professionalsManagement consultants and business analysts


Skills Demand: Sought after Skills

changes over time

▪ Information on the most sought after

skills provided in job adverts suggest

that basic employability skills such as

basic customer service, general sales

are as important as specific sector

skills.

▪ Many of the most sought after skills are

transferable between sectors and

industries.0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Perc

enta

ge o

f jo

b lis

tings

Top 6 desired skills, and how the percentage of jobs requiring them has changed over time.

CUSTOMER AND CLIENT SUPPORT: Basic Customer Service

SALES: General Sales

BUSINESS: Project Management

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY: Microsoft Office And Productivity Tools

FINANCE: Budget Management

EDUCATION AND TRAINING: Teaching



SKILLS SUPPLY


Skills Supply– Attainment 8

▪ Across all geographical areas looked

at disadvantage pupils have a lower

average attainment 8 score than all

other pupils.

▪ The average difference between

disadvantage pupils and all other

pupils across England was 12.8

points. All four of the West of

England authorities have a larger

points difference – B&NES 13.4;

Bristol 15.9; North Somerset 15.5;

and South Gloucestershire 14.0

▪ Only B&NES has an Average

Attainment 8 score for all pupils

higher than that for England.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Bath

and N

orth

East

Som

erse

t

Bristo

l, City

of

North

Som

erse

t

South

Glo

uceste

rshire

South

West

Engla

nd

%

Average Attainment 8 score per pupil (2016/17)

Disadvantaged pupils All other pupils All pupils

Source: Department for Education


Skills Supply: Proportion of 16-17 year

olds recorded in education and training

84%

86%

88%

90%

92%

94%

96%

Jun 2016 Dec 2016 Mar 2017 June 2017 Dec 2017 Jan 2018 Feb 2018 Mar 2018

Proportion of 16-17 year olds recorded in education and training

North Somerset South Gloucestershire Bath and North East Somerset Bristol, City of South West England



Skills Supply: Not in Education,

Employment or Training (NEET)

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10%

England

South West

West of England LEP

West of England CA

Bath & North East Somerset

Bristol, City of

North Somerset


NEET (inc not known) as proportion of 16 and 17 year olds known to the local authority

All Males Females





0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

England

South West

West of England LEP

West of England CA

Bath & North East Somerset

Bristol, City of

North Somerset


Ethnicities of NEET 16/17 year olds

Asian or Asian British Black or black British Chinese Mixed race White Other






0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0%

England

South West

Bath and North East Somerset

Bristol, City of

North Somerset


NEET with and without SEND

without SEND(no EHCP or statement)

with SEND(EHCP or statement)


Note: SEND stands for Special Educational Needs and Disability



• 6.6% of 16 and 17 year olds in the West of England LEP were not in education, employment or

training (NEET) (incl. activity not known) at the end of 2017. This was slightly higher than the

England average figure of 6.0%. NEET males are more prevalent than NEET females, with the

proportion of NEET males higher than NEET Females by 1.2%

• Within the LEP LAs, NEET was lowest in South Gloucestershire (4.7%) and highest in Bristol

(8.8%).

• Bath & NE Somerset has seen the largest drop in NEET from 2016 to 2017 (3.6%).


Skills Supply: Training carried out by

employersTraining provision among employers in the West of England

74% of all employers train

66% of all employers train

26% do not train

34% do not train

West ofEngland

England

49% wanted to train more

49% do sufficient training 2%42% other reasons for not training

58% No need of training

Don’t know

Among those who train

Among those who do not train




FUTURE SKILLS


Future skills challenges▪ Changing landscape – estimated 30% workers will need to switch

occupations to remain employed in 2030

▪ 65% of primary schools students may work in jobs which do not

yet exist

▪ Need for basic/foundation skills and skills for digitised and

automated economy

▪ Tight labour market – focus on progression and potential

▪ Knowledge economy: emotional skills – directing, supervising,

managing, co-ordinating – to overtake physical/manual skills

▪ Education system will need to continue to adapt to reflect the

changing dynamic of the workforce


SKILLS EVIDENCE NEXT STEPS

▪ The data presented in this chapter will be incorporated into a West of England

Labour Market Intelligence Report, in line with the Skills Advisory Panel (SAPs)

guidelines recently published by DfE.

▪The report will seek to address the following:• Analysis and definition of local landscape

• Analysis of skills demand

• Analysis of skills supply

• Mapping of skills demand and supply

▪ The Labour Market Report will inform the people foundation of the LIS, as well as

be used to inform the Skills Plan.


The data presented in this chapter will be

incorporated into a West of England Labour Market

Intelligence Report, in line with the Skills Advisory

Panel (SAPs) guidelines recently published by DfE.

The report will seek to address the following:

• Analysis and definition of local landscape

• Analysis of skills demand

• Analysis of skills supply

• Mapping of skills demand and supply

The Labour Market Report will inform the people

foundation of the LIS, as well as be used to inform

the Skills Plan.

PEOPLE & SKILLS EVIDENCE

NEXT STEPS

56

Documents

WEST OF ENGLAND LOCAL INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY€¦ · WofE 16-17 year olds are more likely than average to not be in education, employment or training (driven by high levels in Bristol)