Welcome to the Integrated Assessment Modeling

Consortium Annual Conference

Potsdam, November 16, 2015

Prof. Dr. Ottmar Edenhofer

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)

Photo H. Bach

• What we do: PIK addresses crucial scientific questions in the fields of global change, climate impact and sustainable development.

• Who we are: Researchers from the natural and social sciences work together to generate interdisciplinary insights and to provide sound information for decision making to civil society, politics and the economy.

• How we work: The main methodologies are system and scenario analysis, modelling, computer simulation, and data integration.

• Formation: 1992 • Staff: 340 members of staff,

of which 220 scientists, and 130 guests

• Resources: 15,2 M€ institutional funding (BMBF, MWFK) and approx. 12,3 M€ from external sources

RECENT DEVELOPMENTS

Photo H. Bach

New Building New Super-Computer

• 212 trillion calculations per second – so called Teraflops;

• among the 400 fastest world-wide; • waste heat used to heat new

building. • 191 offices • Innovative materials and overall

energy efficiency will be assessed in a research project by the Technical University Dresden.

RESEARCH DOMAINS

Research Domain I

Earth System

Analysis

Co-Chairs: Prof. Lucht

Prof. Rahmsdorf

Research Domain II

Climate Impacts & Vulnerabilities

Chair: Prof. Lotze-Campen

Research

Domain III

Sustainable Solutions

Co-Chairs: Prof. Edenhofer Prof. Levermann

Research

Domain IV

Trans-disciplinary Concepts &

Methods

Co-Chairs: Prof. Kurths Prof. Weisz

RESEARCH DOMAIN 3: SUSTAINABLE SOLUTIONS

IAM TEAM AT RD3

Scientific Coordination

Land Use Energy

Model Operation

Economy

RD3: METHODS, MODELS & TOOLS

• global scale fully integrated

• global damage model • regional models • numerical models of

(multiple) policy instruments

• analytic models for the design of policy instruments

Considerable efforts to develop a standard methodological tool box with conceptual models, e.g. • inter- and

intragenerational justice, environmental federalism.

Models explore the full spectrum of options for climate change:

RD3: VISION

Our mission is to synthesize this research in assessments for decision makers: The New Economics of Climate Change

Integrated assessment of transformation pathways

2014 2055 2100

Institutional design & distributional impacts

Integrating mitigation, climate change damages and

adaptation

2° 3° 4° Energy

Land use

Climate

Economy

TRANSFORMATION PATHWAY AS CLIMATE POLICY OUTCOME

Extreme events

Agricultural yields

Water scarcity …

Biophysical impact

indicators

Economic growth Rents Food

security Energy prices …

Socio-economic impact

indicators

Mitigation Residual Damages

Flooding Energy use

Adaptation

Integrated assessment of trade-offs in 2oC, 3oC, 4oC worlds

Benefits & opportunities of

mitigation & adaptation

Costs & risks of mitigation

Economic growth

Food security

Energy prices

Food security

Water availability

TRANSFORMATION PATHWAY

2° 3° 4° &

2010

2055

2100

Energy

Land use

Climate

Infrastructure, trans-port & settlements

Economy

The New Economics of Climate Change

Reduction of climate impacts on…

Economic growth

… …

Benefits & opportunities of

mitigation & adaptation

Costs & risks of mitigation

Political and economic analysis of climate policy

• Public finance and climate policy: Closing the carbon price gap • Ex-post analysis of existing climate policies, e.g. EU ETS • Distributional effects

TRANSFORMATION PATHWAY

The New Economics of Climate Change

ASSESSING THE SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS (SDG)

The World in 2050 Project (SDSN)

Climate change mitigation as entry point

SCIENCE POLICY INTERFACE

Map makers & navigators, facts & values

• Our research guides decision makers, thus we carefully distinguish framing, transformation pathways („maps“) and tools for implementation.

• Social learning is an important component of our work.

Volume 345, Issue 6291: Map Makers & Navigators, Facts & Values Volume 350, Issue 6256: The IPCC at a Crossroads – Opportunities for Reform

Thank you & Welcome to the Meeting.