Weekly Market Review - Mashreq Bank · Weekly Market Review April 3, 2016 – April 9, 2016 April 10, 2016 . Page I 2 CONTENTS ... Qatar National Bank’s 1Q16 net profit climbed

Weekly Market Review April 3, 2016 – April 9, 2016

April 10, 2016

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CONTENTS

International Equity Markets

GCC Equities

Currencies

Commodities

Interest Rates

Equity Markets - Top Most & Bottom Most

Commodity Markets - Top Most & Bottom Most

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Americas

The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing index for US climbed to 54.5 in Mar (vs. 53.4 in Feb)

US factory orders in Feb fell at a more-than-expected pace by 1.7%, following an increase in Jan

US consumer credit jumped by $17.2bn in Feb (after rising by $14.9bn in Jan), beating estimates

Europe

Eurozone’s jobless rate in Feb slipped to 10.3% (vs. Jan’s upwardly revised 10.4%), its lowest level since Aug 2011

Sentix’s Eurozone’s investor confidence index in Apr inched up less than estimates to 5.7 (vs. 5.5 in Mar)

Markit’s Eurozone’s final composite PMI edged up to 53.1 in Mar (vs. 53.0 in Feb), lower than flash data

German factory order fell 1.2% MoM in Feb after rising 0.5% in Jan, recording its biggest fall in six months

Rest of the World

The WTO downgraded 2016 global trade growth forecast to 2.8% (vs. 3.9%, earlier) on uncertain global demand

Caixin China’s composite PMI reached 51.3 in Mar (vs. 49.4 in Feb), led by stronger services, manufacturing activity

Fitch affirmed Japan’s long-term foreign & local currency Issuer Default Ratings at ‘A’ with ‘stable’ outlook

Japan’s leading index declined for a 4th consecutive month to 99.8 in Feb, its lowest level since Dec 2012

World Bank lowered 2016 & 2017 Russia’s economic outlook to -1.9% & 1.1% (vs. earlier -0.7% & 1.3%), respectively

S&P 500 – 1 year performance Euro Stoxx 600 – 1 year performance

Source: Bloomberg, Mashreq Private Banking; *Current

INTERNATIONAL EQUITY MARKETS

Last Close 5 Day % YTD % P/E (2015) *Div. Yield

S&P 500 2,047.60 -1.21 0.18 17.35 2.21

DJI 17,576.96 -1.21 0.87 16.27 2.59

Nasdaq Comp 4,850.69 -1.30 -3.13 20.56 1.30

Euro Stoxx 600 331.86 -0.39 -9.28 15.22 3.73

FTSE 100 6,204.41 0.95 -0.61 16.53 4.52

Dax 9,622.26 -1.76 -10.43 12.15 3.24

CAC 40 4,303.12 -0.44 -7.20 14.22 3.48

Nikkei 225 15,821.52 -2.12 -16.88 14.78 1.92

Hang Seng 20,370.40 -0.63 -7.05 10.80 4.15

Brazil - Bovespa

50,292.93 -0.53 16.02 13.93 3.71

Russia - Micex 1,877.27 1.10 6.58 7.58 4.46

BSE Sensex 24,673.84 -2.36 -5.53 15.33 1.66

Shanghai Comp 2,984.96 -0.82 -15.66 12.99 2.05

Source: Bloomberg, Mashreq Private Banking

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UAE

UAE Exchange’s & Travelex’s majority shareholders secured $890mn loan to support their growth plans

Al Jaber Group reportedly missed repayment on its $4.5bn restructured debt in Mar, including principal & interest

Bank of Sharjah seeks approval from shareholders to issue bonds worth up to $1.5bn

Al Ansari Exchange intends to expand UAE network by 25% by 2020; invest AED600mn by 2018 for up gradation

Saudi Arabia

National Shipping Company of Saudi Arabia secured SAR1.425bn murabaha facility for 10-yr period from Riyad Bank

Al Tayyar Travel Group completed procedures to acquire 30% stake in Zakhr Inv. & Real Estate Dev. for SAR803.8mn

Middle East Healthcare Co. successfully closed its IPO of 27.61mn shares; received SAR12bn worth subscriptions

S&P affirmed the ratings on Saudi Arabia at ‘A-/A-2’ with a ‘stable’ outlook

Rest of GCC

Qatar National Bank’s 1Q16 net profit climbed 7.1% YoY to QAR2.9bn; selected banks to arrange for €1.5bn 3-year loan, to be used for general business purposes

Capital Intelligence affirmed Qatar Int. Islamic Bank’s financial strength rating at ‘A-’ with a positive outlook

BBK’s BHD100mn perpetual tier 1 convertible capital securities’ subscription opened on Apr 3; to close on Apr 18

Last Close 5 Day % YTD % P/E (2015) *Div. Yield

Dubai 3,386.14 0.91 7.46 9.81 3.60

Abu Dhabi 4,351.70 -0.88 1.03 9.87 5.68

Saudi Tadawul 6,258.11 0.56 -9.46 12.69 4.21

Qatar Index 10,164.76 -2.04 -2.54 11.56 4.19

Kuwait Index 5,230.44 0.03 -6.85 – 4.72

Oman MSM 30 5,609.70 2.60 3.76 9.88 4.66

Bahrain All Share

1,117.25 -1.23 -8.11 – 4.88

Egypt EGX 30 7,478.74 -0.61 6.75 9.00 1.65

Istanbul 100 Index

82,502.11 0.17 15.02 9.27 3.54

Source: Bloomberg, Mashreq Private Banking; *Current

DFMGI – 1 year performance Saudi Tadawul – 1 year performance

GCC EQUITIES


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US dollar weakened 3.24% against Japanese yen, briefly touching a 17-month low during the week ended Apr 8 after the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s March meeting showed signs of uncertainty about when to raise interest rates next

British pound slipped 0.70% against US dollar in the week, continued to be rattled by worries that Britain will vote to leave the European Union in a referendum on June 23

Brazil’s real depreciated 1.03% against US dollar this week after the central bank sold 8,500 of the 20,000 foreign-exchange reverse-swap contracts it offered, extended its efforts to weaken the currency after a first-quarter rally made it the world’s best performer

Russian ruble strengthened for a 2nd week by 0.83% against US dollar as Brent crude traded back above $40 per barrel, spurring appetite for assets in the world’s biggest energy exporter

Canadian dollar edged up 0.18% against US dollar from Apr 1 as crude oil prices climbed and minutes from the most recent US Federal Reserve meeting confirmed a dovish tone

Indian rupee inched down 0.33% against US dollar during the week ended Apr 8 as a fall in local shares indicated dollar inflows could slow

Last Close 5 Day % 1 Mth. % YTD % 1 Year %

USD Index 94.2350 -0.41 -3.02 -4.46 -5.14

EUR/USD 1.1399 0.07 3.64 4.94 7.50

GBP/USD 1.4128 -0.70 -0.63 -4.13 -3.44

USD/JPY 108.0700 -3.24 -4.66 -10.11 -10.11

USD/CHF 0.9536 -0.46 -4.38 -4.84 -2.60

USD/CAD 1.2988 -0.18 -1.96 -6.15 3.36

USD/BRL 3.5904 1.03 -2.69 -9.35 16.75

USD/RUB 67.1185 -0.83 -5.60 -7.45 25.25

USD/INR 66.4675 0.33 -1.11 0.47 6.66

USD/CNY 6.4636 -0.28 -0.76 -0.46 4.11

USD/AUD 1.3242 1.70 -0.88 -3.51 1.68

EUR/USD – 1 year performance GBP/USD – 1 year performance


CURRENCIES


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US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) & Brent crude futures climbed 8.46% & 7.96%, respectively this week, after data during the week showed no. of rigs dropping to 354 from 362, an unexpected drop in crude inventories and a strong rise in demand from refiners in the US

Spot gold prices advanced for a 2nd consecutive week by 1.38% as worries about the global economy and expectations for lackluster US’ corporate earnings supported bids for the yellow metal

The Baltic Exchange’s main sea freight index surged 19.78% in the week ended Apr 8, backed by an upswing in demand across vessel segments headed by capesize vessels

The London Metal Exchange’s copper futures declined 3.83% from Apr 1 as concerns over demand from major consumer China pushed the metal breaking a key chart support, triggering selling

The ICE orange juice futures slid 5.77% during the past five trading days as a weaker Brazilian real against the US dollar helped push more juice into the market even as demand fell

The Chicago Board of Trade (CBoT) wheat futures ended the week down 3.26% as the market gets dragged on account of lack of demand for pricey US shipments and the improving condition of the winter wheat crop


Brent – ICE 41.94 8.46 2.12 12.50 -27.53

WTI – Nymex 39.72 7.96 3.73 7.24 -23.08

Gold Spot 1,239.35 1.38 -1.11 16.76 2.63

Silver Spot 15.37 2.09 0.48 10.89 -6.69

Copper - CMX 208.70 -3.51 -6.41 -2.25 -23.66

S&P GSCI Spot Index

329.02 3.99 0.09 5.57 -20.21

Baltic Dry Index 539.00 19.78 43.35 12.76 -7.07

WTI Crude – 1 year performance GOLD – 1 year performance


COMMODITIES


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The 10-year US bond yield declined for a 2nd week in a row by 5.4 basis points (bps) to 1.72%, settling near eight-week lows as investors opted for the safety of government bonds amid volatility in risky assets like stocks

The European Central Bank (ECB) said on Apr 7 it would keep all options on the table in its fight to stave off deflation in the Eurozone, confirming interest rates in Europe could sink even further into negative territory over the next few months

The Reserve Bank of India cut its benchmark repo rate by 25 bps to a five-year low of 6.5% on Apr 5, citing a dip in inflation, in line with economists' expectations

Australia’s central bank left interest rates at a record-low 2.0% on Apr 5, and warned that a rising currency could interfere with a transition in the broader economy—fueling expectations for rate cuts later in the year

Serbia's central bank kept its benchmark interest rate on hold at 4.25% on Apr 7, in line with market expectations, keeping policy steady two weeks before April 24 elections

The National Bank of Poland’s Monetary Policy Council left the key reference rate at a record low of 1.50% on Apr 6, as inflation continued to remain negative (fell 0.8% YoY in Feb after declining 0.9% in Jan)


USD-10yr 1.72 -3.04 -6.12 -24.35 -12.40

USD-2yr 0.70 -3.79 -19.74 -33.66 26.87

Fed Funds Rate 0.37 0.00 2.78 85.00 208.33

USD-3m Libor 0.63 0.27 -0.68 2.95 128.63

USD-6m Libor 0.89 -0.69 -0.31 5.76 121.84

German-10yr 0.10 -29.10 -47.80 -84.90 -40.63

UK-10yr 1.36 -3.26 -1.59 -30.46 -13.24

Japan-10yr -0.09 31.34 -18.52 -133.85 -124.65

AED-3m EIBOR 1.03 0.04 -0.61 -2.78 40.21

AED-6m EIBOR 1.28 0.45 0.82 5.08 44.86

US 10 year Generic Yield – 1 year performance UK 10 year Generic Yield – 1 year performance


INTEREST RATES


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Ref Country Weekly Change Weekly Change

(USD Adj.)

1 Argentina -7.27% -5.26%

2 Zambia -4.04% 5.62%

3 Peru -3.07% -3.84%

4 Poland -2.73% -3.70%

5 Portugal -2.63% -2.56%

6 Mexico -2.61% -5.01%

7 India -2.36% -2.68%

8 Namibia -2.36% -4.18%

9 Thailand -2.22% -2.04%

10 Japan -2.12% 1.16%

Ref Country Weekly Change Weekly Change

(USD Adj.)

1 Ukraine 4.38% 6.11%

2 Sri Lanka 3.17% 4.19%

3 Oman 2.60% 2.61%

4 Vietnam 2.49% 2.49%

5 Russia 1.99% 1.99%

6 Venezuela 1.94% 1.94%

7 Switzerland 1.68% 2.15%

8 Pakistan 1.55% 1.58%

9 UK 0.95% 0.25%

10 Malta 0.93% 1.00%

WEEKLY

Ref Country YTD Change YTD Change (USD Adj.)

1 Peru 17.02% 18.60%

2 Russia 16.12% 16.12%

3 Brazil 16.02% 27.98%

4 Turkey 15.02% 17.74%

5 Colombia 14.98% 18.13%

6 Kazakhstan 13.44% 13.54%

7 Hungary 10.84% 17.41%

8 Namibia 9.69% 13.26%

9 Slovakia 9.63% 15.05%

10 Dubai–UAE 7.46% 7.46%

YTD

Ref Country YTD Change YTD Change (USD Adj.)

1 Italy -18.27% -14.23%

2 Japan -16.88% -7.53%

3 China -15.66% -15.27%

4 Ukraine -15.29% -20.57%

5 Mongolia -13.83% -15.25%

6 Spain -11.70% -7.33%

7 Nigeria -11.57% -11.53%

8 Switzerland -11.35% -6.84%

9 Greece -11.05% -6.65%

10 Germany -10.43% -6.00%

EQUITY MARKETS - TOP MOST & BOTTOM MOST


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Ref Commodity Weekly Change

1 Zinc -6.12%

2 Orange Juice -5.77%

3 Coffee -5.34%

4 Palladium -4.25%

5 Copper -3.51%

6 Lumber -3.39%

7 Wheat -3.26%

8 Sugar -3.23%

9 Natural Gas -3.16%

10 Palm Oil -2.58%

Ref Commodity Weekly Change

1 Brent Crude 8.46%

2 WTI Crude 7.96%

3 Steel Rebar 6.46%

4 Heat Oil 6.07%

5 Gasoil 5.66%

6 Gasoline 4.43%

7 Ethanol 4.36%

8 Rubber 3.30%

9 Nickel 2.70%

10 Corn 2.33%

WEEKLY

Ref Commodity YTD Pct Change

1 Steel Rebar 32.54%

2 Rubber 21.18%

3 Gold 16.76%

4 Tin 15.77%

5 Gasoline 15.52%

6 Lumber 12.77%

7 Brent Crude 12.50%

8 Lean Hogs 11.75%

9 Soybean Oil 11.10%

10 Silver 10.89%

YTD

Ref Commodity YTD Pct Change

1 Natural Gas -14.85%

2 Rough Rice -13.96%

3 Cocoa -10.56%

4 Feeder Cattle -6.59%

5 Cotton -5.07%

6 Coffee -4.93%

7 Lead -4.80%

8 Palladium -3.68%

9 Sugar -3.61%

10 Nickel -3.12%

COMMODITY MARKETS - TOP MOST & BOTTOM MOST


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IMPORTANT NOTICE

This report was prepared by the Private Banking Unit of Mashreqbank psc (“Mashreq”) in the United Arab Emirates (“U.A.E.”). Mashreq is regulated by the Central Bank of the U.A.E. This report is provided for informational purposes and private circulation only and should not be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or any other financial instrument or adopt any hedging, trading or investment strategy. Prior to investing in any product, we recommend that you consult with a professional financial advisor, taking into consideration investment objectives, financial circumstances and tax implication. While based on information believed to be reliable, we do not guarantee and make no express or implied representation as to the accuracy of this report or complete description of the securities markets or developments referred to in this report. The information, opinions, forecasts (if any), assumptions or estimates contained in this report are as of the date indicated and are subject to change at any time without prior notice. The stated price of any securities mentioned in this report is as of the date indicated and is not a representation that any transaction can be effected at this price. The risks related to investment products described in this report are not all encompassing and investors should refer to the relevant investment offer document for detailed information and applicable terms and conditions. Investment products, including treasury products, are not guaranteed by Mashreq or any of its affiliates or subsidiaries unless stated otherwise and are subject to investment risk, including loss of principal. Investment products are not government insured. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance. US persons (US Citizens; US Green Card Holders; Resident Aliens subject to US income taxes for IRS purposes) are not eligible for any of the investment products introduced by Mashreq unless stated otherwise. This report is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. Neither Mashreq nor its officers, directors or shareholders or other persons shall be liable for any direct, indirect, incidental or other damages including loss of profits arising in any way from the information contained in this report. This report is intended solely for the use by the intended recipients and the contents shall not be reproduced, redistributed or copied in whole or in part for any purpose without Mashreq’s prior express consent.

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Weekly Market Review - Mashreq Bank · Weekly Market Review April 3, 2016 – April 9, 2016 April 10, 2016 . Page I 2 CONTENTS ... Qatar National Bank’s 1Q16 net profit climbed